AFC East: NFL Draft 2011

With Luck, Bills on clock for No. 1 pick in '10

April, 28, 2010
4/28/10
2:06
PM ET
Andrew Luck Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesWill quarterback Andrew Luck follow in Sam Bradford's shoes to become the next No. 1 overall pick?
I have good news and bad news for Buffalo Bills fans.

And I have good/bad news for everybody else.

First, for my Bills readers:

ESPN analyst Todd McShay put together a mock draft for 2011 and has the Bills taking Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck Insider. Problem is, the Bills select first overall, the spot reserved for the team with the league's worst 2010 record.

The good/bad news for everybody else: People already are putting together mock drafts for 2011.

McShay writes about Luck:
Only a third-year sophomore this fall but coach Jim Harbaugh has Luck on the fast track mechanically and mentally. Luck has prototypical size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) and is an underrated athlete. More importantly, he has a smooth over-the-top delivery, a strong arm and great touch as a passer. Better decisions while gaining more game experience could put Luck in position to become the top player taken in the draft -- either in 2011 or 2012.

ESPN.com columnist Ivan Maisel takes a look at how Luck is emerging into a star college quarterback. Maisel writes, "Luck already is rated as the first pick of the 2011 draft. You don't need Todd McShay to tell you that. Any agent worth his platinum Rolex Yacht-Master can see it."

Let's not get too carried away, though, Bills fans. As inexact of a science as mock drafts are, they're virtually impossible to forecast a year out. McShay has to project who's stock will be hot, what positions NFL teams will need, which underclassmen will enter the draft or return for their senior seasons while hoping against a major injury or failed drug test.

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Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesBrian Brohm was tabbed as the top prospect in an early 2007 mock draft. He was drafted at No. 56 in 2008.
Also to keep in mind, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper projected in a preseason mock Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm would be the first overall selection in the 2008 draft. Brohm was the 56th pick and didn't make the Green Bay Packers' final roster. He was the Bills' third-string quarterback last year.

Still, mock drafts are fun to talk about, and I don't want you to go through withdrawal.

McShay used a draft order based on Scouts Inc. power rankings from Jeremy Green and Matt Williamson. It looks like a decent year for the AFC East.

McShay has the New England Patriots selecting Georgia receiver A.J. Green seventh overall with the pick they acquired from the Oakland Raiders for Richard Seymour. In the Patriots' assigned 22nd slot, they add Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas.

With the 18th pick, the Miami Dolphins select Oklahoma edge-rusher Jeremy Beal.

The New York Jets take Nebraska defensive tackle Jared Crick with the 29th pick, indicating they will reach the AFC Championship game again but won't punch their Super Bowl ticket.

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