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ESPN analyst Steve Young would've liked Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down had the New England Patriots not burned timeouts like a junior varsity squad.

Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis, a former New England Patriots offensive coordinator, won't say whether he would have gone for it on fourth down like Bill Belichick did Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, but Weis insists the decision was made before the game.

For those of you still wondering "What was Bill Belichick thinking?" when he made the fateful decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line Sunday night, we've gone back 5 1/2 years for a clue.

A February 2004 article by New York Times reporter David Leonhardt takes a look at California Berkeley economist David Romer, who two years earlier wrote an obscure academic paper that determined teams punt too much.

Belichick somehow came across the paper, which had been published only on Romer's site at Berkeley and by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Belichick, who majored economics at Wesleyan University, apparently found Romer's work intriguing enough to apply it in games.

''I read it,'' Belichick said in a Boston Herald article and cited by the New York Times. ''I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points.''

The Patriots failed to convert the first down Sunday night. Tom Brady threw a pass to running back Kevin Faulk, who bobbled the ball and was dropped inches short of the first-down marker. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning took over and, with a short field, threw the winning touchdown pass four plays later.

While mathematical analysis might show going for it on fourth down was preferable to punting in that situation, the 2004 New York Times article noted that running in that situation works better than passing:

Running is far more effective in gaining a few yards than passing is. Yet many other teams, including the Giants and Jets, which together won four fewer games than New England [in the 2003 season], tried many ineffective pass plays in an effort to surprise the defense. It's a little like surprising your opponent in chess by letting him capture your queen.

Also from Leonhardt's story:

In the end, none of these moves is nearly as important as designing a defensive strategy or drafting good players. But Belichick's hyper-efficient approach almost certainly gives his team a small advantage in a game that can easily be decided by minor differences.

The approach has also altered the course of Professor Romer's research. When talking about the Berkeley economist's paper this year, Belichick noted that it did not consider the emotional effect that failing on fourth down could have on a team.

"Monday Night Football" analyst Jon Gruden shares his thoughts on New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick's controversial decision Sunday night.

ESPN Stats & Information, using the Win Probability Calculator from wp.AdvancedNFLStats.com, computed whether Bill Belichick made the right statistical call in deciding to go for it on fourth down Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts.

ESPN Stats & Information aimed to break it down four ways:

1. Chance of winning the game if the Patriots converted the fourth down.
2. Chance of winning the game if the Patriots missed the fourth down.
3. Chance of winning the game if the Patriots punted the ball.
4. Chance of converting the fourth down.

The Win Probability Calculator factors the score, time remaining, field position, down and distance.

Predicted outcomes to the above scenarios came back thusly:

1. If the Patriots converted, they would have had a first down roughly on their own 30-yard line with two minutes to go. Their average win probability in this situation would be 92 percent.
2. If they missed the fourth down, the Colts would take possession on roughly the Patriots' 29-yard line with two minutes to go. The Patriots win probability in this situation would be 66 percent.
3. If they punted the ball, using Chris Hanson’s average of 44 net yards in the game, the Colts would have gotten the ball at about their own 28-yard line. The Patriots' win probability in this situation would be 79 percent.
4. The answer to this one has many variables. The NFL average when going for it on fourth-and-2 over the past two seasons was 55.7 percent. The Patriots had converted three of four attempts in that situation over the past two years prior to Sunday night. The Colts' defense allowed opponents two conversions on three fourth-and-2 attempts over the past two seasons. Even though this indicates that the Patriots were more likely to convert than the league average, ESPN Stats & Information placed their chances of converting at the league-average rate of 55.7 percent.

Next is some hardcore math that produces the following:

• The Patriots' win probability when going for it (factoring expectation of winning with the probability of a successful conversion versus the expectation of winning with the probability of a failed conversion) was 80.5 percent.
• The Patriots expected win probability when punting, as stated above was 79.0 percent.

Here is ESPN Stats & Information's final synopsis:

Using these estimates, the decision is very close. The Patriots’ expected win probability when going for it is actually greater than the expected win probability when punting, but just by 1.5 percent. If you say the Colts and Peyton Manning had a greater chance of coming back after the missed fourth down conversion than the 34 percent given to them by the NFL average ... then you’d probably also give them better than the 21 percent chance to come back if the Patriots had punted. So you’d have to decrease the win probability when punting from 79 percent. Most likely, you end up with a close decision either way.

NFL Network studio analysts Brian Billick, Steve Maricucci and Mike Martz discussed New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line in the closing minutes of what would turn out to be a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.

Here are some advance quotes from "The Coaches' Show," which will air Monday at 6:30 p.m., 8:30 p.m. and 10 p.m. (all Eastern).

Billick: "It’s not like it was a knee-jerk decision. Bill Belichick is a lot of things, but rash and impetuous is not one of them. This was not a ‘Yee haw! Let's go do this!’ decision. Everything is always calculated with Belichick. [The Patriots] have a history of this like no other, and basically what it says is that he has more faith in his offense to get 1 yard than he does in his defense to keep Peyton Manning [contained]."

Mariucci: "I probably would have punted it. If you go for it and make it, you're going to win the football game. If you don't make it, you give Peyton Manning just under two minutes to go 30 yards. If you punt it, you give Peyton Manning just under two minutes to go around 65 yards. The Patriots' defense could not stop Manning, so it was a real gutsy call to go for it and finish them off, and it just didn’t work out."

Martz: "Sunday night, I thought he should have punted. But when you look back on it now on film, I can understand why he did what he did."

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick was pulling down a 46 percent in the SportsNation NFL head coaches approval ratings with 123 votes cast at midnight. That was about the time the clock expired in the Indianapolis Colts' victory Sunday night.

Since then, Belichick's rating actually has gone up. Belichick has a 52 percent rating as of this posting Monday afternoon with over 2,600 votes cast.

Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano led the AFC East. He ranked fifth in the NFL at 84 percent.

New York Jets coach Rex Ryan was at 33 percent.

Buffalo Bills coach Dick Jauron was in last place at 5 percent.

Special thanks to ESPN.com blog editor Brett Longdin for checking Belichick's midnight figure while I was in the Patriots' locker room.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Former New England Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi, now an ESPN analyst, didn't like Bill Belichick's game-defining decision in Sunday night's loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Belichick, with a six point lead and 2:08 on the clock, opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line and failed. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw the winning touchdown pass four plays later.

In a column for ESPNBoston.com Bruschi wrote:

As a former defender on that team, I would've cared less about the result of that fourth-down attempt. The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks. Bill Belichick sent a message to his defense. He felt that his chances were better to go for it on his own 28-yard line than to punt it away and make Peyton Manning have to drive the majority of the field to win the game.

I would look at this decision as a lack of confidence in our ability as a defensive unit to come up with a big play to win the game. If I'm Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Darius Butler, Jonathan Wilhite, Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan -- to name a few -- I'm wondering why we weren't given the chance to do what we've been coached to do ever since the first day we practiced.

Bruschi shares similar sentiments in an interview with John Buccigross:

INDIANAPOLIS -- New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was good at play-action passes in Sunday night's loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Brady completed all but one of his 10 attempts after making a play-action fake. He gained 214 yards and made a touchdown. ESPN Stats & Information calculated the statistics.

In his previous three games, Brady wasn't good at play-action passing. He threw three touchdown passes and four interceptions for an 84.4 passer rating.

Before we left Lucas Oil Stadium in the wee hours of Monday morning, Tim Graham and I sorted through the crazy ending to a classic that's sure to be debated for a good while.

INDIANAPOLIS -- There actually is an explanation.

You might not agree that Bill Belichick's decision was justified or even logical by lobotomized standards, but there was a reason he astonished us all Sunday night.

Common sense dictated the New England Patriots punt. They faced a fourth-and-2 situation from their own 28-yard line with 2 minutes, 8 seconds to play. They were ahead of the Indianapolis Colts by six points.

But Belichick defied convention. That's what geniuses do sometimes. They'll try some crazy maneuver every now and then. Belichick saw this as the perfect moment.

He called a timeout to shoo his punt unit off the field. He sent his offense back to the field. Surely, Belichick ordered Tom Brady to induce the Colts to jump offside with a hard count and some wild hand gesticulations.

There was no way the Patriots were going to snap it, right?

Then the ball soared between center Dan Koppen's knees. The play was live. This was it, do or die. Brady threw to his right to running back Kevin Faulk, who bobbled the ball but corralled it as he went to the turf -- short of the first down by six inches or so.

Anybody who watched the play unfold was stunned.

"That was like a video-game play," Colts punt returner T.J. Rushing said. "You're playing your buddy and you're like, 'I'm just going to go for it.' I guess they figured no matter what, if the offense got the ball back, we were going to win. That's the only thing I can think of."

The Patriots gave Colts quarterback Peyton Manning a short field and braced for the inevitable.

You knew it was going to happen. Four plays later, he threw a strike to Reggie Wayne for a touchdown to give the Colts an implausible 35-34 victory in Lucas Oil Stadium.

What was Belichick thinking?

"We tried to win the game on that play," Belichick said, elaborating little.

Brady defended the call. So did the Patriots players who weren't too disgusted to speak to reporters after the game.

The Patriots have one of the NFL's best offenses. Brady is one of the game's all-time greats and was enjoying a monster day. They had amassed 477 yards from scrimmage, with 375 yards spiraling from Brady's right hand. They had the ball and wanted to keep it.

Quite simply, they thought 2 yards were more than attainable.

ESPN Stats & Information dug through the archives and found that entering Sunday's game, the Patriots had converted a fourth-and-2 or shorter 68 out of 89 times (76.4 percent) since 2001, Brady's first year as a starter.

"I don't ever second-guess coach Belichick," Brady said. "He makes the right decision out there a lot of the time. We as players have to go out there and do our jobs and execute the plays that are called. He's not responsible for turnovers or penalties or missed throws. We had our offense out there, and we're one of the best offenses in the league. We have a chance to go out there and make the play to win."

"In Bill We Trust" is a popular slogan among diehards. Even their devotion will be tested.

Belichick has built up a lot of faith equity over the years. He runs one of the NFL's dominant franchises, the team of the decade. He has three Super Bowl rings and four AFC championships.

That doesn't make him infallible.

"He's the head coach," Faulk said. "He makes the calls. They're not all right, but he's the head coach. No matter what he does, to us, that's going to be the right call."

To most everyone else, it was the wrong call for the Patriots.

"It's a game of inches, guys," Brady reasoned with reporters at his postgame news conference. "It's easy to second-guess, obviously. If we gain seven more inches, then it's a great call."

The Patriots (6-3) were afraid of Manning. In their minds, it didn't matter where Manning gained possession of the ball. He had a timeout at his disposal and probably the two-minute warning to help him manage a fantastic finish.

What had the Patriots particularly spooked were Manning's two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. He twice drove the Colts 79 yards. The first took five plays and 2:46. The second -- after the Patriots grabbed a seemingly safe 13-point lead with four minutes left -- took six plays and 1:49.

"It's not like as a coach you're thinking 'Let's see if they can do that again,' " Brady said. "He's thinking 'We've got our offense on the field. We have over 450 yards of offense at the time. We got a lot of great players on our offense.' "

Colts strong safety Melvin Bullitt said after the game defensive backs coach Alan Williams had been drilling into them all week that if the Patriots went for it on fourth down, the ball was going to Faulk or Wes Welker.

Bullitt was all over Faulk to make the game-saving tackle.

There's more than one way to look at Belichick's decision. Some might view it as having faith in his offense. Others might see it as an indictment of his defense.

Patriots cornerback Leigh Bodden disagreed that the move suggested Belichick didn't have faith his defense could make a stop, noting that the coach entrusted his men to stop Manning to score in an Arena League situation.

Maybe it didn't matter. Maybe Manning drives the length of the field to stick a dagger in the Patriots' chests anyway. But the Patriots didn't have to make it so easy for him.

The Colts (9-0) are unbeaten, but Manning's not infallible either. He threw two bad interceptions early in the game. There was no guarantee he would have driven the Colts 80 yards. The Patriots should have made it tougher rather than put Manning on the doorstep.

"Against this team, you've got to play 60 minutes," Brady said. "If you don't, you'll get beat. When you're up 13 with four minutes left and you can't close them out, I think that's going to sit with us for a long time."

INDIANAPOLIS -- What in the world was that?

The New England Patriots stated their case they deserve to be known as the AFC East's best team.

And then they let it slip away.

The Patriots were on their way to beating the Indianapolis Colts, but Bill Belichick's nonsensical decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 28-yard line -- not the Colts' 28-yard line -- with two minutes left cost them dearly.

The Patriots didn't convert, and with the short field, Peyton Manning made Belichick pay. Four plays later, Manning hit Reggie Wayne for a touchdown with 13 seconds left to give the Colts an improbable 35-34 victory in Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Patriots went into the Colts' home and dissected them for about 58 minutes, holding a 34-21 lead in the fourth quarter.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was better than Manning, who threw two bad interceptions. Brady completed 29 of 42 attempts for 375 yards and three touchdowns.

New England's offense was impressive, scoring touchdowns on drives of six, two, five and two plays. The Colts went into the game having allowed only one touchdown drive of six plays or fewer.

Randy Moss caught nine passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns. Kevin Faulk rushed 11 times for 79 yards. Laurence Maroney would've had a two-touchdown game had he not fumbled at the goal line in the third quarter.

Rookie left tackle Sebastian Vollmer continued his strong play, keeping Dwight Freeney from sacking Brady. Last week, Vollmer shut out the 2008 AFC sacks king, Joey Porter.

And, yet, none of it mattered.

INDIANAPOLIS -- NBC "Football Night in America" host Bob Costas sat down for an interview with Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning as part of Sunday night's pregame show.

A couple of passages from the segment ...

Manning's thoughts on Tom Brady:

"I can't tell you where he ranks. I can tell you what a great quarterback he is or what a great leader he is. Certainly, when the stakes are at their highest, that's when he seems to shine and make the most plays. At the end of the AFC Championship [Game] a few years ago, I don't usually pray during a game but I just knew I gave Brady a minute, 23 [seconds]. That's just way too much time. ... He's made the hard look easy. He's one of the best."

Manning on the great quarterbacks who didn't win a Super Bowl:

"I still defend [Dan] Marino. I still defend [Fran] Tarkenton. I still defend Jim Kelly. All I know is what great quarterbacks they were. I've seen guys change when they've won one. They kind of say, 'I'm out of that club now. I'm in this new club.' I kind of like being in the old club with guys who just played their butts off every single Sunday. Jim Kelly, Marino, Tarkenton, John Stockton, you get guys not just in the NFL. I admire those guys for how long they played, how well they competed, how hard they competed. That's really all I want."

INDIANAPOLIS -- A few quick observations from Lucas Oil Stadium, where the New England Patriots lead the Indianapolis Colts by 10 points and will get the ball to start the second half.

Tom Brady and Randy Moss have been the stars of the show so far. Brady has completed 11 of 19 attempts for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Moss has 144 of those yards on four catches.

The Patriots' offense looks intriguing if they stay with Julian Edelman and Isaiah Stanback -- two college quarterbacks who could help them get creative in the future.

Edelman returned after missing two games with a broken right forearm. He has two catches for 14 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Stanback has one catch for 9 yards, but he has been on the field often.

Colts tight end Dallas Clark singed the Patriots for 25 yards on the first play of their second drive but otherwise has been rather quiet. He had one more grab for 12 yards, but that has been it so far.

The Patriots lost outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (ribs) and his replacement Rob Ninkovich (knee).

Rookie left tackle Sebastian Vollmer has done well a second straight game. He shut out Joey Porter last week and has kept Dwight Freeney from getting to Brady so far Sunday night.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Through eight games, the Indianapolis Colts had given up a touchdown on six plays or fewer a grand total of one time.

The New England Patriots have whacked them for two such touchdowns Sunday night and lead 17-7 in the second quarter.

Tom Brady and Randy Moss were the perpetrators each time. Moss broke free in the Colts secondary in the first quarter, and Brady made it hurt with a well-placed pass that let Moss go for 55 yards. That set up Laurence Maroney's 1-yard touchdown run.

That drive took six plays.

New England's next touchdown happened in two plays.

Moss then made a spectacular 63-yard touchdown catch on a high, arcing throw. Colts safety Antoine Bethea had perfect coverage, matching Moss stride for stride and getting his arm in between Moss' hands. But Moss seized the ball and tucked it away as he stumbled into the end zone.

Moss has four catches for 144 yards and a touchdown that broke his tie with Terrell Owens for second place on the all-time receiving touchdowns list. Moss has 141, still 56 behind Jerry Rice.