AFC East: Reggie Wayne

Here are the most interesting stories Saturday morning in the AFC East: Morning take: It's way too early to get into predictions. But Buffalo made an impact by getting Williams. Let's see if the Bills fill some other holes first at left tackle, receiver and cornerback.
Morning take: I agree with many of the points made in this article. It’s hard to get a grasp on what Miami’s goals are this offseason and if the team is on its way to accomplishing them.
Morning take: The Patriots are looking for a starter, and I think they need more of a speedster anyway. But it doesn't matter at this point. Wayne is a Colt.
Morning take: This is no surprise. The Jets don't have cap room to make a huge splash. But where I think New York will spend is at safety, where Reggie Nelson and LeRon Landry are both possibilities.
Two of Peyton Manning's most reliable weapons are now on the free-agent market. Former Indianapolis Colts receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark -- both multi-time Pro Bowlers -- will wear new uniforms next season due to Indianapolis' big roster makeover.

Should the Miami Dolphins consider signing one or both players? This would be one sure way to appease Manning, who is considering Miami as one of several destinations.

Miami could use an upgrade at receiver opposite Brandon Marshall. Wayne is a good friend of Manning and lives in Miami, where he went to college. Wayne seems like a good fit. The Dolphins don't have a huge need at tight end. But Clark, 32, could make a decent tandem with Anthony Fasano. Clark does have an injury history the past two seasons that Miami needs to be careful of.

The Dolphins are expected to meet with Manning over the weekend, and Manning has all of the leverage. But this is a very fine line for Miami to walk with free agency approaching.

On one hand, the Dolphins need to be careful not to let a player who may or may not sign with the team dictate how they operate with free agents. On the other hand, this is Peyton Manning -- one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. If going after Wayne and/or Clark is what separates Miami from the other potential Manning suitors, it's probably general manager Jeff Ireland's best interest to swallow his pride (and offseason game plan) and go for it.

Miami's front office has spent months analyzing the draft and free agency, and there is a good chance spending money and cap room on two 30-something pass-catchers wasn't in the plans. But chasing a player the caliber of Manning is a high-stakes game where just about anything goes.

Just hours after saying goodbye to the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning's first stop may be a telling one.

CBS Miami has an aerial shot of the future Hall of Fame quarterback landing in South Florida Wednesday afternoon. Manning will officially become a free agent as soon as the paperwork goes through the league office.

It is unknown at this stage if Manning will start his free-agent tour with the Miami Dolphins or is just going back to Miami to continue his workouts and rehabilitation. Manning, who owns a condo in Miami, recently trained with former teammate Reggie Wayne in South Beach a couple weeks ago, as well as Duke University last week.

But perhaps this is a good first sign for the Dolphins. I don't see any reason why having Manning in Miami can be a bad thing right now. The Dolphins are considered one of the favorites to land the quarterback.

Is Dwayne Bowe Plan B for Bills?

February, 22, 2012
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The Buffalo Bills are approaching the final weeks to exclusively negotiate with leading receiver Steve Johnson. The team is expected to continue talks with Johnson's representation at the NFL combine but reportedly remain far apart.

I've said all along that keeping Johnson in Buffalo is 50-50. The Bills have a firm idea of his worth to the team, and Johnson wants to be paid like a franchise receiver. Neither side has been able to close that gap since last year.

But in the event Johnson hits the open market next month and finds a more lucrative offer, the Bills must have a Plan B. Could that include Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe? There are reasons Bowe, an unrestricted free agent, and the Bills could be a match.

Bills coach Chan Gailey was Kansas City's offensive coordinator in 2008, when Bowe set a career-high with 86 receptions. Gailey knows what Bowe can do, and Bowe proved he can fit in Gailey's offense.

Bowe and Johnson have put up comparable numbers the past two seasons. But Bowe is a more physical specimen and bigger game-breaker than Johnson. The Bills' front office may not want to pay Johnson approximately $8 million per season, but they may be willing to do that for Bowe. The AFC East blog ran a poll on how much Buffalo should pay Johnson, and a majority of readers picked $5-$7 million.

This is a strong year for free-agent receivers. Players like Johnson, Bowe, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston all have a chance to hit the open market.

The Bills need to find a No. 1 receiver if they strike out with Johnson, and Bowe has the strongest connection to the coaching staff.

AFC East's best: No. 12 Brandon Marshall

July, 7, 2011
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The countdown of my top 25 AFC East players continues, one weekday at a time ...

About the choice: Marshall has been a frustrating acquisition for the Miami Dolphins. His off-field issues remain a serious concern. He was prone to silliness. He didn't seem capable of generating that coveted chemistry with quarterback Chad Henne. So production plummeted. Even so, Marshall is one of the NFL's most dangerous receivers. He didn't reach triple-digit receptions for the first time since 2006, but he still tied for sixth in the league despite missing two games. He finished with 86 catches for 1,014 yards and three touchdowns.

Key fact: ESPN Stats & Information charted 139 targets for Marshall, seventh in the NFL. Had he played all 16 games with that pace, he would have finished fourth behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Roddy White.

Hint about No. 11: Aside from Tom Brady, no other player remaining on the list was drafted later.

Previous picks:

Marshall, Welker not among my top 10 WRs

March, 8, 2011
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I'm pretty sure I have some explaining to do.

ESPN.com's blog network began its series of positional power rankings Tuesday with wide receivers. I included only one AFC East target on my ballot, omitting some big names readers will disagree with.

Although Brandon Marshall earned enough votes to crack the top 10, he didn't appear on my list. Neither did Wes Welker, Steve Johnson or Braylon Edwards.

My ballot:
  1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
  2. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
  3. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
  4. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
  5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers
  6. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
  7. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
  8. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
  9. Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos
  10. Santonio Holmes, New York Jets

Nine of my 10 nominees comprised the consensus top 10. The lone discrepancy was the last slot.

I almost didn't vote for Holmes. I originally had Pittsburgh Steelers burner Mike Wallace on the list, but I couldn't deny the direct impact Holmes had in closing out colossal victories for the Jets.

Holmes' stats weren't staggering, but he started the season with a four-game suspension that kept him out of the lineup and off the practice field. Once the NFL activated Holmes, it took him a couple weeks to get back into the offense. Then he was sensational. He had eight touchdowns in his last 11 games, including two out of three postseason games.

I couldn't bring myself to include Marshall. He had a nice reception total, but he scored only three touchdowns (one by December) and averaged the fewest yards per catch of any wide receiver with at least 850 yards. The Miami Dolphins had one of the NFL's weakest red-zone offenses, and a top 10 receiver should be able to help in that regard.

Welker didn't make the cut because he had a terrible season when it came to drops. ESPN Stats & Information charted a league-leading 11 drops. Welker averaged fewer yards than Marshall despite nearly half of his total (848 yards) coming after the catch (410 yards). That's a lot of long handoffs.

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Darrelle Revis ready to erase a Steeler

January, 19, 2011
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FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan doesn't remember a single time a healthy Darrelle Revis ever was scorched by a receiver.

Revis Island was invaded a few times this year, but let's just say he had border patrol issues. A contract dispute caused him to miss training camp and led to a hamstring injury that dogged him for the first half of the season.

But he returned to his usual, dominant self in November and has been sensational in the playoffs. He'll return to his hometown Sunday to play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game.

"It's not like he's just playing corner," Ryan said at Wednesday's news conference. "A lot of times we'll give him the toughest down: 'You have no help. So that offense knows you have no help.' A lot of times that's when [an offense should] take a shot over there. We want you to because we think we have as good a chance of catching that football as you do.

"I've only seen it one other time in my life, and that was with Deion Sanders."

Revis held NFL receptions leader Reggie Wayne to one reception for 1 yard in the wild-card round, effectively erasing Peyton Manning's top target. Stats analyst KC Joyner credited New England Patriots receiver Deion Branch with one reception for 8 yards against Revis on Sunday.

Where will Revis line up Sunday against Pittsburgh? Will he be on Mike Wallace? Hines Ward?

Ryan didn't offer many specifics.

"We'll be multiple in what we do with Darrelle," Ryan said. "But there's only one of him. If we had more, that would be great. I'd sign up for that.

"But he's the best in the business. Regardless of who we put him on, that's probably not a good thing for that person."

Joyner, who has Revis allowing only 4.3 yards per target since Week 9, looked back on the Jets' victory over the Steelers in Week 15 for some clues.

In a column for ESPN Insider, Joyner wrote:
Revis was almost never assigned to cover Wallace: They did not square off in coverage on any of the 45 pass plays. On running plays, Wallace was on the field and lined up across from Revis only once.
The reason Revis didn't face Wallace is that the Jets had decided to assign Antonio Cromartie to the Steelers speedster. This tactic was fairly effective, as Wallace gained only 32 yards on three targets (two completions) when facing Cromartie in coverage.

Another problem the Steelers present the Jets is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's ability to strike for big gains on broken plays. Revis said the Jets have practiced "plastering" receivers all week.

"If you're playing against a quarterback like Ben, just latch onto [the receiver] as tight as you can when the plays extend," Revis said. "A receiver might run a curl route or a slant, but his next read, if he sees Ben scrambling, then he'll break it off and run vertical, or maybe turn around and run to the sideline.

"It's hard for secondaries to do that."

Maybe not difficult for Revis.

But, as Ryan already noted, there's only one Revis.

Darrelle Revis in all-time cornerback talk

January, 18, 2011
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber, Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely and "First Take" raconteur Skip Bayless discussed where New York Jets star cornerback Darrelle Revis rates among the all-time greats at his position.

"He does everything you expect a corner to do," Barber said. "He hits people. He tackles. He makes plays on the ball. He locks people down in man-to-man coverage. ... But he had no interceptions this year. Largely on reputation right now, he is a great, great corner. But he doesn't make a whole bunch of game-changing plays."

Barber said his Buccaneers teammate, Aqib Talib, already is in Revis' realm.

Feely gave his perspective as someone who played with Revis for two years.

"No one can objectively say he's the greatest of all-time, but he can get there," Feely said. "I'll tell you why: because he's strong, he's physical, he can play man, he can play bump, he can be off the ball and play well.

"One of the things that makes him so great is he's diligent. He studies hard. I played with him two years and watched him and was thoroughly impressed with him. ... He practices harder than I've seen another guy practice. He gets after it in practice.

"There was a story he told me. I asked him 'Why do you go so hard against Braylon Edwards.' He said 'Because my rookie year he burned me twice, and I want to prove to him every day in practice that I'm better than him.' That said a lot to me."

Barber's all-time pick was Rod Woodson. Feely and Bayless went with Deion Sanders.

Revis on Welker a bad idea for the Jets

January, 14, 2011
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For the past couple days on ESPN's "First Take," resident provocateur Skip Bayless has argued the New York Jets should stick star cornerback Darrelle Revis on New England Patriots receiver Wes Welker for the entire game Sunday.

Game analyst KC Joyner agrees that approach makes perfect sense when you consider Welker is Tom Brady's favorite target, and Revis is coming off a masterful performance against the NFL's leading receiver. Revis held Indianapolis Colts star Reggie Wayne to one catch for 1 yard last week.

Joyner, however, endorses an approach that would seem counterintuitive on the surface. Joyner explains Deion Branch truly is the Patriots' most dangerous receiver.

On throws that travel no farther 10 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage, Branch averaged 8.1 yards per target. Welker averaged just 6.6 yards, with his unusually high number of drops factoring in.

As for yards after the catch, Welker added 4.8 yards per reception compared to 4.9 yards for Branch (not counting his four games with the Seattle Seahawks).

But perhaps the biggest reason Revis should stay with Branch -- or at least mix up coverages, as Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha argued Friday on "First Take" -- is Branch's ability to go deep.

On passes that traveled 11 yards or farther, Branch caught 18 for 404 yards with four touchdowns. Welker caught 16 for 177 yards.

To summarize, Joyner writes: "Putting Revis on Welker would take away a strong short pass threat but putting him on Branch would take away both a short threat and a long threat. It's like placing two castaways on Revis Island instead of one."

Another issue to consider for the Jets is the knee injury nickel back Drew Coleman suffered Thursday. We're not sure of the severity, but he wasn't on the field for the portion of Friday's practice that was open to the media.

QBs need a passport for Revis Island again

January, 11, 2011
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With all of the hoopla surrounding New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis over the summer, expectations couldn't have been higher.

Revis
Revis
The contract holdout and the hamstring injury dogged his season. Sure, he was voted to start in the Pro Bowl again. But the general sense was that Revis didn't play up to last year's elite standard, and that made him a disappointment to some observers.

KC Joyner (aka the Football Scientist) would have concurred with that assessment a few weeks ago, but he agrees with the proclamations Jets head coach Rex Ryan made Monday: "Quite honestly he's the best player in football ... an amazing player, a once in a lifetime player."

Ryan was referring to Revis' performance in Saturday night's playoff victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Revis held the NFL's leading receiver, Reggie Wayne, to one catch for 1 yard.

That's more like the Revis we came to know last year, when he gave up 3.6 yards per target by Joyner's assessments.

Joyner's analysis showed from Weeks 1 through 6, Revis allowed eight completions for 196 yards and three touchdowns on 22 targets, an average of 8.9 yards per attempt.

For the rest of the season, Revis gave up 11 catches for 153 yards and no touchdowns on 35 targets. Joyner also credits him for drawing a 10-yard offensive pass interference call, pulling Revis' average down to 4.1 yards per target.

As Joyner notes, "Revis Island is once again a place for opposing receivers to fear."

Quick Take: Jets at Patriots

January, 9, 2011
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Three things to know about Sunday's New York Jets at New England Patriots divisional-round playoff game:

1. Getting past what happened in Week 13 won't be easy for the Jets. Their humiliating 45-3 loss will be a psychological barrier they must conquer. The Jets need to find a way to make up 43 points when they return to the scene of their wretched display in front of a "Monday Night Football" audience. It probably will be easier for the Jets' offense to close the gap than it will be for their defense to smother Tom Brady's high-performance outfit. The Patriots haven't scored fewer than 31 points since Nov. 7, lighting up the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears along the way. The 1991 Detroit Lions were the last team to lose by 40 points in the regular season and have a rematch in the playoffs. The Washington Redskins defeated them 45-0 the first time and 41-10 in the postseason.

2. New England's run defense will decide the game. Unless Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez drinks a magic efficiency potion, he's not going to be able to beat the opportunistic Patriots defense without a sound run game. The Jets were able to overcome Sanchez's shaky play and beat the Colts on Saturday night because of a forceful ground attack. The Jets rushed for 169 yards and averaged 4.4 yards a carry. LaDainian Tomlinson ran 16 times for 82 yards and two touchdowns. New England's run defense has been up and down throughout the season. The Lions averaged 4.8 yards on Thanksgiving, the Jets averaged 4.9 yards in Week 13, and the Buffalo Bills averaged 6.0 yards in Week 16. But the Patriots held seven opponents below 4 yards a carry, including in three of their last four games.

3. The Patriots' offense has multiple ways to win. The Colts were incapable of running Saturday night even though Peyton Manning counted seven defensive backs at times. "They had [cornerback Marquice] Cole at defensive end," Manning said. The Jets then contained Manning by letting him dink and dunk -- aside from one blown play, a 57-yard touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon in the second quarter. Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis held Reggie Wayne to one catch for 1 yard. But the Patriots can bulldoze the Jets if they have to. Patriots running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will keep Rex Ryan's defense honest. And if the Jets gear up too much to stop the run, there's that Brady fellow to contend with.

Video: Jets at Colts 'Field Pass'

January, 8, 2011
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ESPN analysts Darren Woodson, Mark Schlereth and John Clayton break down key matchups for Saturday night's first-round playoff game between the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Video: Colts at Patriots 'Field Pass'

November, 20, 2010
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ESPN analysts Mark Schlereth, Tedy Bruschi and Matthew Berry break down the key matchups for Sunday's game between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium.

Double Coverage: Pats vs. Colts in 2015

November, 18, 2010
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Colts and PatriotsESPN.com IllustrationPeyton Manning and Tom Brady have been at the center of arguably the best rivalry of the past decade. Who will carry it on when they step away from the game?
The annual AFC showdown is upon us, and with it come the recurring storylines.

That's right, the Indianapolis Colts will meet the New England Patriots on Sunday for an eighth straight season. The NFL's greatest ongoing interdivisional rivalry showcases two of the great organizations of this generation and renews the discussion about Peyton Manning's stats versus Tom Brady's championships.

We've decided to rekindle the debate, but before you throw your head back and groan in anticipation of the clichés, hold your horseshoes.

The purpose of this debate is to eliminate Manning and Brady and look into the future.

Which team has the better long-range outlook once Manning and Brady move on?

For the purpose of this discussion, we've set the target for 2015 -- one year beyond the length of Brady's latest contract extension -- to examine which team has the better infrastructure to cope with life minus its iconic quarterback.

Tim Graham: Time to get after it, Paul. But no weapons this time, please. I've just recently completed the physical therapy from our last debate.

Paul Kuharsky: Well, this back-and-forth will be less physically taxing, and since there is so much forecasting, you may actually be able to put your Jedi training to use.

Graham: Get this debate started we shall, hmmm?

Kuharsky: So what do the Colts and Patriots have now that's going to be a big factor for them in five years?

Jerry HughesAndy Lyons/Getty ImagesWill 2010 first-round pick Jerry Hughes develop into a cornerstone on the Colts' defense?
I count eight guys who are in their first, second or third year with the franchise who I expect will still be prime contributors in 2015. But only three of the eight fit into the framework of the four most important positions on the field -- quarterback, left tackle, defensive end and cornerback. Those players would be corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey and defensive end Jerry Hughes.

Hughes is still unproven, but it's early and Colts president Bill Polian saw the potential for him to ultimately replace a Dwight Freeney or a Robert Mathis.

Others who may still be staples when Manning is gone: receiver Austin Collie, linebacker Pat Angerer, tight end Jacob Tamme, tight end Brody Eldridge and punter Pat McAfee. Can that group be the core of a team that continues to win? I wish I could offer a solid yes or no instead of a tepid maybe.

Beyond that, we've got five drafts to consider, right? And Polian regularly finds undrafted gems. I don't doubt the Colts will have talent. But they'll need new Freeney-, Dallas Clark- and Reggie Wayne-caliber stars, plus the replacement quarterback.

Graham: Patriots overlord Bill Belichick has drawn deserved criticism for his draft failures. He has swung and missed at his share of Terrence Wheatleys and Kevin O'Connells and Chad Jacksons in the early rounds.

But when you accumulate as many picks as the Patriots have and have elite football minds evaluating the talent, those bad decisions are going to even out eventually. The Patriots appear to be warming up when it comes to successful drafting.

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Aaron Hernandez
AP Photo/Paul Spinelli Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez ranks second on the Patriots in catches and receiving yards.
The Patriots went into Heinz Field and manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers with four rookies in their starting defensive lineup (defensive end Brandon Deaderick, outside linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes and left cornerback Devin McCourty) and a rookie tight end (Rob Gronkowski), who caught three touchdowns. Another rookie tight end (Aaron Hernandez) ranks second on the team in catches and receiving yards. Their punter is a rookie.

They don't have as many second- and third-year contributors, but inside linebacker Jerod Mayo was defensive rookie of the year in 2008. Among the sophomores are starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and receivers Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman, who also handle return duties.

Without question, there will be a drop-off at quarterback when Brady retires, but the Patriots are loaded with core youth.

Kuharsky: The Colts may draft better, but they also draft less. Polian's not the draft pick wheeler-and-dealer Belichick is. Are those the guys who will be lining up the Manning and Brady successors?

It's a quarterback-driven league, and teams minus Manning and Brady will have major voids. We've got to talk about the replacements for the iconic quarterbacks, but it's hard to offer much conjecture on what kind of guy that will be without talking about who will be finding him.

Polian is 67 years old, and the last time I asked him about any sort of plan for retirement he gave me a head tilt and an uncomfortable expression.

Graham: I've noticed a lot of people do that around you.

Kuharsky: If things are neat and tidy, the suspicion is he and Manning -- the guy he hit the jackpot with when he picked him over Ryan Leaf -- will exit together. The next generation is waiting in the wings. Chris Polian is Indianapolis' vice president and general manager.

Chris PolianAP PhotoCurrent Colts VP Chris Polian is likely play a key role in finding Peyton Manning's successor.
I'd expect Bill Polian will have a strong hand in selecting the Colts' quarterback of the future. But it will ultimately be Chris Polian who's connected to that signal-caller the way Bill Polian is connected to Manning. The younger Polian has a good reputation and good football genes, but it's hard to know how much of his father's personnel judgment he's inherited and how much he's learned. And having to replace a guy many will argue is the greatest quarterback of all time will be an awfully difficult assignment.

Graham: I don't know how long Belichick plans to coach, but even if he were to get tired of the week-to-week grind of getting his boys ready to play, it's fathomable he'll stick around to run the operation, handpicking his successor and overseeing football operations.

It would be silly to give Belichick more than a smidgen of credit for drafting Brady in the sixth round a decade ago. If Belichick truly knew what Brady was capable of, the Patriots wouldn't have passed on him until the 199th pick. So it's not like Belichick will simply wait until Brady's on the verge of retirement and automatically snag a replacement.

Kuharsky: True. But they knew more than everybody else when they finally did take him.

Graham: Belichick trusted his scout, and they unearthed a gem.

I believe Belichick's support staff is stronger than Polian's. Senior adviser Floyd Reese oversaw the Houston Oilers and Tennessee Titans' drafts when they picked Steve McNair and Vince Young. Player personnel director Nick Caserio, like a lot of Belichick's sidekicks over the years, will develop the tools to run his own show someday.

Kuharsky: I don't know that Belichick's got better support. It's just more well known and visible support.

Graham: And a high-profile owner who is willing to trust his front office, will spend money and doesn't dare meddle. That's another key component to New England's success over the past decade.

Kuharsky: Moving onto the replacement quarterback himself, Curtis Painter is Manning's current backup. But based on his work in a couple of regular-season games the team didn't care about winning at the end of last season and some preseason work, most people aren't forecasting anything special from him. And that would amount to quite a lengthy apprenticeship anyway.

Graham: You wouldn't think the Patriots have Brady's successor on the roster either. Brian Hoyer is an undrafted sophomore with virtually no experience so far. But you never can tell how these guys will develop while working alongside Brady for a few years. This is the team that identified Matt Cassel, a seventh-round draft choice who hadn't started a game since high school, as its top backup for 2008. He ended up going 11-5 when Brady blew out his knee.

Kuharsky: The Colts will need a guy for a super-tough replacement job. It would be awfully difficult for them to land in a Aaron Rodgers for Brett Favre or Michael Vick for Donovan McNabb replacement situation.

After hitting a grand slam with the No. 1 pick in 1998, odds would suggest that it will be tough for them to line up with the right guy at the right pick at the right time. The way they build, odds are Manning's heir will be a guy who plays a full college career. So he's a college freshman or a high-school senior right now, depending on their plan for easing him in.

Graham: The Colts and Patriots finish too high in the standings every year and don't get to pick until the 20s. That will make it nearly impossible to snag some golden-armed top prospect in their assigned draft positions. But the Patriots frequently go into drafts with other teams' picks -- and an abundance of them. They often have copious draft assets to move up if they want to. Or maybe the Patriots will obtain that big-ticket pick waaaaay in advance. A year ago, Belichick traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for their 2011 first-round selection. That's the kind of creative investing that could pay off with a high-quality quarterback prospect down the road.

Kuharsky: It will definitely be more difficult for the Colts to get to the top of a draft to get a premier guy. And there may need to be a post-Manning down-cycle for the team to get up there and find the guy. Scribes in Indianapolis often wonder aloud what happens to the Colts' crazed support if they turn into a 5-11 rebuilding project. The rest of the AFC South certainly hopes that's how it works, and that the division is a lot more wide open once Manning's not in it.

And while we're forecasting five years out, I have two questions: Will Manning still be a deadpanning TV commercial superstar? And will Brady have had a haircut?

Graham: There's one unwavering prediction I can make about hair, Paul, but it's not about Brady's.

Observations from Colts-Bills in Toronto

August, 19, 2010
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TORONTO -- The Buffalo Bills bounced back from a putrid performance in their preseason opener to beat the Indianapolis Colts 34-21 on Thursday night in the Rogers Centre.

Some notes and observations from the game:
  • Trent Edwards might have won the starting quarterback job with how he responded to one specific play. On a third-and-10 play in the first quarter, Colts defensive end Robert Mathis crushed Edwards while throwing. The hit knocked off Edwards' helmet and chipped a tooth. Two possessions and five plays later, Edwards hooked up with Lee Evans for a 70-yard touchdown bomb.
  • Bills coach Chan Gailey said of the sequence: "I never thought anything less would happen to be honest with you. All of our guys have moxie. You've got to have moxie to play quarterback in this league. I was impressed with that, really impressed with it. I asked after he got hit 'Are you OK?' He didn't even flinch. ... I think he's a tough guy."
  • If the Bills can count on three home-run plays a week, they'll be fine. Their touchdowns were a 31-yard C.J. Spiller run, a 78-yard Terrence McGee interception return and a 70-yard bomb to Evans.
  • Spiller's run snapped a string of 20 straight preseason possessions without a touchdown for the first-team offense. He's going to be fun to watch, one of those players who has a legitimate shot to score every time he touches the ball because he makes tacklers miss.
  • Backup quarterback Brian Brohm didn't get the most glorious opportunity to make an impression or gain ground on Edwards. Brohm could have gotten a series against the Colts' first-team defense, but Gailey sent Edwards out for a fifth possession with 11:49 left in the second quarter. Brohm entered the game with 6:05 left in the half.
  • Brohm's performance was OK against the Colts' backups. He threw a lot of high-percentage short stuff, completing 14 of 21 attempts for 125 yards with no touchdowns or no interceptions. He had a wonderful chance to throw for his first NFL touchdown right before halftime. The Bills had second-and-goal from the 5, but Brohm misfired on two passes. The Bills kicked a field goal.
  • Brohm set up the goal-to-go situation with a gorgeous pass and catch by Chad Jackson along the right sideline for a 26-yard gain.
  • Would have been nice to see Brohm air it out on third and long. In the third quarter, Brohm dumped off to Chad Simpson for 4 yards on a third-and-13 play. On a third-and-12 play two series later, the Bills ran.
  • Spiller was busy without Fred Jackson (broken hand) and Marshawn Lynch (sprained ankle). Spiller averaged only 14 carries his senior season at Clemson. He ran 10 times for 54 yards in a quarter and a half of work.
  • Spiller looked scintillating on his touchdown scamper, but his jitters and jukes didn't fool the Colts all the time. He averaged 2.6 yards on his other nine carries. He had runs that went for minus-6, minus-2, zero and 1 yards.
  • Overshadowed by Spiller was undrafted rookie running back Joique Bell, who ran 11 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. He's making a statement. Simpson, conversely, ran eight times for 8 yards.
  • The Bills' defense gave Peyton Manning some problems. He completed 8 of 15 passes for 91 yards and one touchdown with one interception. His 66.3 passer rating was less than half of Edwards'.
  • After an ugly opener against the Washington Redskins six days earlier, the defense rebounded with a great first series. Defensive lineman Marcus Stroud batted down Manning's first attempt. Cornerback Leodis McKelvin nearly intercepted a long ball to Reggie Wayne. Nose tackle Kyle Williams stuff Joseph Addai for a 3-yard loss on a screen pass.
  • Gailey said he was just wanted to give him more time in pass-rushing situations, but it's disconcerting to see last year's 11th overall draft choice, Aaron Maybin, on the field at the end of a preseason game.
  • Bills cornerback Ellis Lankster had another rough game. Taj Smith got behind him for a 43-yard touchdown strike from Curtis Painter in the second quarter.
  • Despite 35 points in the first quarter, the Rogers Centre was rather sterile again, just like the previous three Bills games played here. The announced crowd was 39,853 fans.
  • The crowd, however, got interesting in the final minutes. Perhaps the best play of the night: A Rogers Centre security guard chasing down a fan who sprinted onto the field with 1:55 left in the game. The fan had about a 20-yard head start, but the guard caught up to him and slammed his head to the turf. As the guard walked back past the Colts sideline, Wayne went out of his way to give him a high-five.

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