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I usually don't like to look beyond this season in the NFL because so much can change in a year. But ESPN's resident scout Todd McShay has an interesting mock draft up for 2013.

It's a very early projection. But let's take a look at what McShay has in store for the AFC East:

Miami Dolphins

Pick: No. 8

McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

Thoughts: McShay projects Miami to take one of the best pass-rushers next year. Jones recorded 13.5 sacks as a junior, and expectations are high for Jones in 2012. Pass-rushers are always needed. For example, Dolphins outside linebacker Cameron Wake is entering the final year of his contract and is in the middle of a dispute with the team.

New York Jets

Pick: No. 9

McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

Thoughts: I'm surprised McShay and Scouts Inc. project New York to have a top-10 pick next year. Are the Jets on their way to another implosion, as the No. 9 overall pick suggests? If that's the case, McShay sees the Jets drafting another pass-rusher in Mingo. This is the norm for Jets coach Rex Ryan. But I think running back and offensive tackle could be more pressing needs by the end of next season.

Buffalo Bills

Pick: No. 17

McShay's pick: Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech

Thoughts: The Bills didn't draft a developmental quarterback this year. So I understand why McShay sees Buffalo taking one in the first round in 2013. Buffalo will need to have someone ready to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick in the next few seasons. But I was surprised that it was Thomas over Oklahoma's Landry Jones, who has more buzz entering this year. But both players will settle it on the field to determine who is the second-best quarterback prospect behind Matt Barkley of USC.

New England Patriots

Pick: No. 32

McShay's pick: Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State

Thoughts: Once again, it's interesting that McShay and Scouts Inc. are vaguely predicting a Super Bowl title for New England. The Patriots have so many receivers already that I'm finding it hard to see New England drafting that position in the first round. The Patriots have few holes. But maybe cornerback or running back could be early targets, depending on how things play out this season.

The time for mock drafts is coming to an end, as the actual NFL draft will be Thursday night. But ESPN draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay provided their final mock drafts of 2012.

Here is how Kiper and McShay envision the first round going this week for the AFC East:

Miami Dolphins (No. 8 overall)

Kiper’s pick: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill

McShay’s pick: Tannehill

Analysis: I haven’t seen a mock draft in a while that doesn’t have Tannehill going to Miami. The need for a quarterback of the future and Miami's interest in Tannehill are obvious. If he’s there at No. 8, I agree that Tennehill is the pick. There’s been some speculation that Tannehill could go as high as No. 3 or No. 4, but that rumor appears to be losing steam the week of the draft. Miami likes Tannehill, but certainly not enough to trade the farm. The Dolphins can sit tight and take their chances.

Buffalo Bills (No. 10)

Kiper’s pick: Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd

McShay’s pick: Floyd

Analysis: Both Kiper and McShay also agree on Buffalo's pick. As we mentioned several times in the AFC East blog, the Bills are in somewhat of an odd spot. I like Floyd as a prospect and he does fit a need. But I’m not a big proponent of taking wide receivers in the top 10, especially if they're not the top player at the position. I think the safest pick for Buffalo at No. 10 would be linebacker Luke Kuechly, but McShay and Kiper both have Kuechly off the board when Buffalo comes up. Floyd is a decent pick, but I would rather Buffalo trade back and get additional draft picks, if possible. Other receiver prospects such as Stephen Hill or Alshon Jeffery might be available to Buffalo at No. 41 near the top of the second round, and that would provide more value.

New York Jets (No. 16)

Kiper’s pick: North Carolina DE Quinton Coples

McShay’s pick: South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram

Analysis: These are both interesting selections for the Jets. New York would be jumping for joy if Ingram is available at No. 16. It’s one of the worst-kept secrets in the draft that the Jets are high on Ingram. He can add a pass-rush to Rex Ryan's defense. However, I'm skeptical that arguably the best pass-rusher in the draft will make it this far. Coples is a player whose stock is taking a dip. There are questions about his motor. I also think Coples is a better fit as a traditional 4-3 defensive end, as oppose to playing in a 3-4. Coples would be a decent value at No. 16, but he doesn't fit New York's scheme as well as Ingram.

New England Patriots (No. 27 and No. 31)

Kiper’s picks: Alabama OLB Courtney Upshaw and Notre Dame S Harrison Smith

McShay’s picks: Boise State OLB Shea McClellin and Smith

Analysis: Smith is being linked to New England a lot, and he is a prospect who is rising up the draft boards. The Patriots need help for their 31st-ranked pass defense. Smith has a good mix of intelligence and athleticism New England could use in its secondary. Both Kiper and McShay see the Patriots going outside linebacker with the No. 27 pick. I don't think New England could go wrong with Upshaw or McClellin. Both bring a good pass-rush.

Wide receiver is one of the deepest areas of this year's NFL draft, and the New York Jets need a starting receiver. Sounds like we have a match.

On Monday ESPN.com's blogger mock draft pegged Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd to New York at No. 16. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay talked about the possibility of Floyd to New York earlier this week.

"I mean, if you're going to run the football and be successful, you've got to have the threat of the pass. If Michael Floyd was there [at No. 16], I think he would fit very well in terms of a compliment, and what, I believe, they need on this roster. You start to look at what they have. Chaz Schilens opposite Santonio Holmes, and Jeremy Kerley, doesn't strike a lot of fear. I get it. You're in the lineup and run the football, but you've got to back defenses off, unless this becomes the Tebow show and they turn into the Denver Broncos from a year ago which is a whole other story."

McShay went on to elaborate by saying there could be other great options available in the second and third rounds. The Jets have other needs, such as right tackle and safety. But is Floyd the best fit for New York?

There are mixed reviews on the potential of Iowa offensive tackle Riley Reiff. Some observers think he's a legit top-10 draft pick, while others say he could struggle as an offensive tackle at the next level.

Reiff is an interesting prospect for the AFC East. At the very least, he's on the radar of the Miami Dolphins (No. 8), Buffalo Bills (No. 10) and New York Jets (No. 16). All three teams need a starting left or right tackle. In ESPN.com's blogger mock draft, Reiff went No. 10 to the Bills.

ESPN draft expert Todd McShay weighed in on Reiff's potential and other top offensive tackles in his most recent conference call.

"It's interesting. There is a lot of depth in the first round. You've got one elite offensive tackle in [Matt] Kalil. Then there is a drop off. Then there are a group of different guys that can fit holes. I think Riley Reiff is never going to be elite, but he's always going to be solid coming out of Iowa. Cordy Glenn is a right tackle prospect. Jonathan Martin needs to get stronger and is maybe not ready to step in and be a good starter at left tackle now, but he has the potential to be."

McShay is not calling Reiff a future bust or a future Pro Bowler. But is "solid" enough for a top-eight or top-10 pick? That is the question the Dolphins and Bills would have to consider.

Miami doesn't need a left tackle. So I think chances are not great that the Dolphins will draft Reiff at No. 8 to play on the right side. But Buffalo, which needs a left tackle, is probably the strongest possibility for Reiff in the AFC East. The Jets would also consider Reiff as a potential replacement for starting right tackle Wayne Hunter if Reiff falls to No. 16.

Lost in the mix of Peyton Manning being released Wednesday and potentially joining the AFC East were two new mock drafts from ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay .

Let’s take a look at both experts and see where they think teams in the division are leaning.

Miami Dolphins

Pick: No. 8

Kiper: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

McShay: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Analysis: These are two names that constantly come up with the Dolphins, and I don't like either selection. Reiff is versatile but in Miami he would play right tackle. Is it smart to take a right tackle with the No. 8 overall pick? I would get a pass-rusher here who can make more of an impact or consider trading down. The AFC East blog listed some trade possibilities for Miami last week. Tannehill's stock is rising fast to the point where McShay thinks he's a top-eight pick. I don't think Tannehill is worth such a high a pick and don't see Miami taking him here, especially if the Dolphins land Manning or Matt Flynn in free agency.

Buffalo Bills

Pick: No. 10

Kiper: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

McShay: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Analysis: I like the thinking of both Kiper and McShay here. Buffalo should look for the best pass-rusher available with this pick. Quinton Coples would be ideal, but he's probably off the board at No. 10. Both Ingram and Upshaw have good motors and can get sacks. But Buffalo is switching to a 4-3 defense this year and would have to decide which player would be the better fit.

New York Jets

Pick: No. 16

Kiper: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

McShay: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Analysis: I think the Jets would be fortunate if either player fell to No. 16. The Jets need a safety badly, and Barron is the best of the bunch. He has some health ailments he's working through during the pre-draft process and that could place Barron in the teens. But his game tape shows he's an aggressive player the Jets would like. Upshaw is probably a top-10 pick and I don't see him falling this far. But if he does, Upshaw could bring the aggressive pass rush the Jets need.

New England Patriots

Picks: No. 27 and 31

Kiper: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut; Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

McShay: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois; Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Analysis: Defense, defense, defense, defense. This is perfect for New England. Although I think New England attacks its secondary -- either corner, safety, or both -- it's hard to argue with three defensive linemen. The Patriots need help at all three levels. New England, the reigning AFC champ, has the luxury of taking the best player on the board. As long as it helps the 31st-ranked defense, there shouldn't be any complaints. By the way, I would be surprised if Jenkins nearly falls out of the first round.

Due to responsibility of covering the Super Bowl, I never got around to Todd McShay's latest mock draft for the AFC East.

Let's take a look at McShay's second offering.

Miami Dolphins (No. 8 or No. 9)

McShay's pick: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

Analysis: Nothing against Ingram, who is a good prospect. But the Dolphins need several positions before they add a pass-rushing defensive end/outside linebacker. Miami already has one of those in Cameron Wake. What they don't have is a franchise quarterback, a play-making safety or a right tackle. Defensive tackle Paul Soliai also is a free agent and may need to be replaced. Perhaps most of these needs will be addressed in free agency before the draft. But with the way the roster currently stands, some other players may be a better fit in the first round.

Buffalo Bills (No. 10)

McShay's pick: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama,

Analysis: Upshaw would be a great pick for Buffalo. He does everything well for a linebacker, including rush the passer, which is needed. Upshaw also is versatile, although the Bills appear to be going strictly to a 4-3 next season. Upshaw can bring that nasty mentality and a pass rush that Buffalo has been looking for. The Bills need a difference-maker on defense and Upshaw has that potential.

New York Jets (No. 16)

McShay's pick: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Analysis: I also agree with this pick for the Jets. New York has several needs, but perhaps no need is bigger than safety. The Jets may need to replace both safeties next season. Jim Leonhard is a free agent coming off a season-ending knee injury and Eric Smith had a terrible year. Opponents often avoided New York's corners and had a field day throwing over the middle against the safeties. Barron could help stop that trend.

New England Patriots (No. 27 and No. 31)

McShay's picks: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse; Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

Analysis: McShay sees the Patriots rebuilding the defensive line. I think New England needs more help on the back end with the secondary (corner and safety). But I really don't have too big a problem with this, as long as the Patriots are drafting defense in the first two rounds. I wouldn't mind if New England spent its first four picks on defensive players. Also keep in mind Patriots head coach Bill Belichick likes to trade these picks. But I think it's wise for New England to finally cash in.

Is it too early for the first NFL mock draft? Not according to ESPN draft guru Todd McShay.

ESPN's director of college scouting has been scouring the country this football season to find the best college prospects we will be talking about in the spring. Here is an early look at prospects McShay thinks could be coming to the AFC East:

Miami Dolphins (5-9)

Projected pick: No. 8

McShay's selects: USC QB Matt Barkley

Analysis: This would be the good pick for Miami at No. 8. The Dolphins need a long-term solution at quarterback and Barkley is someone the team can build around. I think Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will be a star, but he will be gone with the first pick. Baylor's Robert Griffin III and Barkley both have strengths that I think you can build around. McShay projects Griffin going to the Washington Redskins at No. 7. But I think the Dolphins would be happy with either one. Barkley can compete with Matt Moore next year in training camp or sit a year and learn from the sidelines.

Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Projected pick: No. 10

McShay's selects: Iowa OT Riley Reiff

Analysis: I don’t like this pick for Buffalo. Reiff is a good player, and you rarely want to pass up offensive tackles. But I think Buffalo has too many holes on defense to pass up that side of the football with a top-10 pick. The Bills need playmakers on defense, particularly someone who can rush the passer. North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples would be ideal. But Buffalo may need to lose another game or two to move a few spots higher.

New York Jets (8-6)

Projected pick: No. 22

McShay's selects: South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery

Analysis: For a team with so many talented starters, the Jets really lack depth at a lot of positions. Wide receiver is one of them, but I don’t think that’s New York’s most pressing need. I would prefer the Jets address their offense line, which would help their running and passing game. The Jets desperately need an upgrade at right tackle. Some possibilities late in the first round are Florida State’s Zebrie Sanders and Ohio State’s Mike Adams. Safety is another possibility, especially if the Jets allow Jim Leonhard to walk in free agency.

New England Patriots (11-3)

Projected pick: No. 29 (from New Orleans) and No. 31

McShay's selects: South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram and Mississippi State CB Johnthan Banks

Analysis: I like where McShay is going. New England has two picks, and he sees the Patriots going defense twice. I agree. New England's defense is nowhere near the level of its offense, and the draft should help. I think New England needs to focus on its secondary. I would consider the best safety available and maybe a corner with the second pick. Also consider New England has some young players coming back from injury, such as corner Ras-I Dowling. But whatever the Patriots do, they need to use their top picks and stop trading down. They need impact players.

I have good news and bad news for Buffalo Bills fans.

And I have good/bad news for everybody else.

First, for my Bills readers:

ESPN analyst Todd McShay put together a mock draft for 2011 and has the Bills taking Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck . Problem is, the Bills select first overall, the spot reserved for the team with the league's worst 2010 record.

The good/bad news for everybody else: People already are putting together mock drafts for 2011.

McShay writes about Luck:

Only a third-year sophomore this fall but coach Jim Harbaugh has Luck on the fast track mechanically and mentally. Luck has prototypical size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) and is an underrated athlete. More importantly, he has a smooth over-the-top delivery, a strong arm and great touch as a passer. Better decisions while gaining more game experience could put Luck in position to become the top player taken in the draft -- either in 2011 or 2012.

ESPN.com columnist Ivan Maisel takes a look at how Luck is emerging into a star college quarterback. Maisel writes, "Luck already is rated as the first pick of the 2011 draft. You don't need Todd McShay to tell you that. Any agent worth his platinum Rolex Yacht-Master can see it."

Let's not get too carried away, though, Bills fans. As inexact of a science as mock drafts are, they're virtually impossible to forecast a year out. McShay has to project who's stock will be hot, what positions NFL teams will need, which underclassmen will enter the draft or return for their senior seasons while hoping against a major injury or failed drug test.

Also to keep in mind, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper projected in a preseason mock Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm would be the first overall selection in the 2008 draft. Brohm was the 56th pick and didn't make the Green Bay Packers' final roster. He was the Bills' third-string quarterback last year.

Still, mock drafts are fun to talk about, and I don't want you to go through withdrawal.

McShay used a draft order based on Scouts Inc. power rankings from Jeremy Green and Matt Williamson. It looks like a decent year for the AFC East.

McShay has the New England Patriots selecting Georgia receiver A.J. Green seventh overall with the pick they acquired from the Oakland Raiders for Richard Seymour. In the Patriots' assigned 22nd slot, they add Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas.

With the 18th pick, the Miami Dolphins select Oklahoma edge-rusher Jeremy Beal.

The New York Jets take Nebraska defensive tackle Jared Crick with the 29th pick, indicating they will reach the AFC Championship game again but won't punch their Super Bowl ticket.