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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.

Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.

On Wednesday ESPN put together an expert panel to determine which team will is poised to dominate in 2015. That is three years and four seasons from now.

Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:

No 2: New England Patriots

Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.

No. 16: New York Jets

Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.

No. 22: Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.

No. 28: Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.

Earlier Wednesday, we wrote a column on the New England Patriots' likely future struggles without Tom Brady. The Hall of Fame quarterback is set to retire in a few years, which will bring the Patriots back to earth with the rest of the division.

In our latest AFC East poll, we want to know which quarterback has the best chance to be Brady's heir in the division. There are several players to choose from on the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and even the Patriots.

The Jets have two quarterbacks age 25 or under. Is Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow the next dominant quarterback in the AFC East? Both have won playoff games early in their career and are competing to lead the Jets to the next level.

How about rookie first-round draft pick Ryan Tannehill? He's young and has all the tools to be a viable NFL quarterback. But the Dolphins must spend the next couple of years developing Tannehill and getting him ready for the pro game. Will he become the best quarterback in the AFC East after Brady retires?

Will it be Ryan Fitzpatrick? He's 29 and in the best years of his career. Fitzpatrick recently signed a $59 million contract extension with Buffalo, which means he will be the starter for at least the next two or three seasons.

Or is Brady’s heir also on New England's roster? Young but inexperienced quarterbacks Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer are both waiting and learning behind Brady. Does either player have what it takes to keep the Patriots in title contention when Brady retires?

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on the top quarterback of the future in the AFC East. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.

The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

Patriots fans will scream that Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old.

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?

He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• After an extended wait, Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Williams chose No. 94 with his new team.

Morning take: Williams wanted No. 90, but veteran Chris Kelsay wouldn’t give it up. No. 94 will have to do for Williams in Buffalo.

• In light of concussions, the father of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said he would be hesitant to let his son play football.

Morning take: Fortunately for Patriots fans, it’s too late. Brady has had an amazing career in New England. We will have more on Brady later today.

• The New York Jets' three safeties have a history of struggles against the pass.

Morning take: LaRon Landry, Yeremiah Bell and Eric Smith are not cover safeties. They have other strengths, but opponents will test their pass coverage often.

• Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill says he has to get use to the speed of the game.

Morning take: No shocker there. That is the biggest adjustment from the colleges to the pros. Tannehill will be fine. It will take time to play faster.

Retired New England Patriots left tackle Matt Light made a trip to ESPN headquarters this week. He recently played a game of percentages on "NFL Live" and had some interesting things to say.

Percentage chance Tom Brady plays for 10 more years

Matt Light: "One hundred percent. If you said 20 years, I’d probably give you 100 percent. I mean, they’re going to have to cart him off. ...He could be playing to 55, maybe even 60."

Percentage chance Bill Belichick wins another Super Bowl

Light: “We’ll go 50-50. The one thing that you hear from a lot of guys that come in from other organizations is that ‘I just wanted to come here because I just want a shot at winning.’ I think they bank on the fact that because of the system and the dedication of the coaching staff, the owner and everything else, they’re going to have that opportunity. So, each year 50-50.”

Percentage chance of Wes Welker signing a long-term deal before the season starts

Light: “Can we say zero on that? That’s a tough one. Let’s go with five percent.”

Percentage of caveman in tight end Rob Gronkowski

Light: “A solid 87. It’s a good caveman.”

Percentage chance of Light returning to the football field

Light: “Zero percent. Not in a bad way but when you close the door, it’s always good to keep walking.”

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Patriots and why.

It's hard enough to replace a New England Patriots legend. It's even harder when you're stepping into one of the most important jobs on the team.

That's the situation facing the Patriots' new starting left tackle, Nate Solder. The 2011 first-round pick is entering his second season, and his first as the full-time protector of quarterback Tom Brady's blind side.

Solder did a good job in relief of injured right tackle Sebastian Vollmer last year. Solder showed good movement and footwork in pass protection, and New England's elite offense didn't miss a beat. This year, he'll be replacing three-time Super Bowl winner Matt Light on the left side, which is more challenging. Light retired this year after 11 seasons. He started in his fifth Super Bowl last season, capping a great career.

Now, Solder will be facing the best pass-rushers the NFL has to offer. Brady will be 35 in August and needs to take as few hits as possible. Solder was taken in the first round to eventually replace Light. That time came a little sooner than expected, but Solder has to be ready.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.

Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.

Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East after Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.

Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.

It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, as it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.

Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.

But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best he can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.

1. New England Patriots: To say New England now has abundance at this position would be a massive understatement. Wes Welker’s and newly signed Brandon Lloyd’s roles are pretty clearly defined, but the Patriots also have Deion Branch, Anthony Gonzalez, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman, special-teams star Matthew Slater and seventh-round pick Jeremy Ebert all competing for roster spots and roles in this offense.

Welker turned 31 this month, but he has caught more than 100 passes in four of the past five seasons, including a whopping 122 last year. How much does the premier slot receiver of this generation have left? That is hard to guess, but Welker still creates all sorts of problems for every defense he faces and Tom Brady has extreme confidence in him.

With Lloyd in the picture, Welker’s catch total could decrease, as Lloyd is sure to find some favorable matchups now on the perimeter -- often deep downfield. He is an acrobatic receiver who has a ton of big-play ability. Lloyd’s downfield ability is a huge reason New England added him to an already extremely potent passing attack.

Branch will be 33 before the season starts and has appeared in all 16 games only one time in his 11 seasons. Branch is a Brady favorite, but Lloyd is going to cut into Branch’s production in a big way. Still a solid receiver, Branch isn’t someone who can consistently torture single coverage like Lloyd can.

Gaffney hasn’t missed a game in five years and quietly had a pretty good season for the Redskins last year, despite a questionable supporting cast. He is also over 30. I could see him sticking in New England, as the Patriots were very aggressive in pursuing him after his release in Washington.

Gonzalez didn’t play a snap last year and has appeared in only 39 games in his five-year career. Durability is clearly the biggest knock on Gonzalez, but at one point, he and Peyton Manning had a good thing going. This former first-round pick might surprise in a new uniform if he is able to stay healthy.

The 34-year-old Ochocinco was a great player in Cincinnati, but did next to nothing in his first year in New England. He lacks the discipline in his route running to be a regular contributor and is wildly inconsistent, with very few impressive showings. Ochocinco was not a good fit in New England from the start.

Stallworth is yet another over-30 wideout with a checkered history. He is also a former first-round selection and still has the speed to get deep, which is an element the Patriots look to infuse back into their passing attack. One interesting aspect of choosing which wideouts to keep from this huge group is that most of the veteran receivers discussed above offer little-to-nothing on special teams. But any way you cut it, the Pats are pretty loaded at wideout.

2. Buffalo Bills: Although the Bills locked up Steve Johnson, wide receiver is a spot where you can argue they are not noticeably improved from a year ago. Johnson is clearly the top option at wide receiver for Buffalo, but the Bills also will have Donald Jones, David Nelson, Marcus Easley and third round pick T.J. Graham competing for playing time in an offensive system that could feature a high percentage of three-wide receiver sets.

Johnson eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons and crossed the goal line 17 times over that stretch. He has had some ups and downs and isn’t a special talent when comparing him to other teams’ top wide receivers, but there is also a lot to like about what Johnson brings to the Bills’ offense. He has done some of his best work against the top corners in this league.

Jones played only eight games last year, catching just 23 passes with one touchdown. But he has good deep speed and flashes some big-play ability to go along with enough size to be a starter opposite Johnson. Nelson is a big-bodied slot receiver in the Marques Colston mold. He stepped up for the Bills last season and is the second-most reliable member of this group. I especially like what Nelson offers in the red zone.

Easley showed promise coming out of college but has no production yet in the NFL due to injuries. But he is big and fast. Keep an eye on him. I like his chances in this offense. Graham has a ton of work to do with his development as a wide receiver, but he has extreme speed and explosiveness. It might take time for him to be able to get on the field, but once he does, Graham could open up a lot of room for everyone in this offense.

He isn’t a wide receiver so I am not including him in my ranking process, but with Fred Jackson back to being healthy, I expect C.J. Spiller to line up more on the outside and run wide receiver routes.

3. New York Jets: I am still very much a believer in Santonio Holmes as a player, but outside of Holmes, the wide receiver cabinet is rather bare for New York. You can blame the quarterback play for sure, but there is no way around it -- Holmes had a dismal season for the Jets last year. A player who has shown up huge on the biggest of stages, Holmes was clearly frustrated with his situation last season en route to accumulating a measly 654 receiving yards. I can’t say I condone Holmes’ behavior last season, but his numbers likely would have been much better with more efficient quarterback play.

To bolster this position for the long term, the Jets used a second-round pick on Stephen Hill. Hill is the ultimate size/speed prospect and should immediately have an impact on deep routes to help keep the Jets’ opponents off the line of scrimmage to some degree. But Hill has a lot of work to do with the route tree before he can be considered a true complement to Holmes.

They also picked up the often-injured Chaz Schilens in free agency. Schilens appeared in 15 games last year for the Raiders but accumulated only 271 receiving yards. In the two seasons prior, Schilens missed 19 of a possible 32 games with injury. When healthy, Schilens has used his size, route running and strong hands to move the chains in this league. The Jets could really use that.

Jeremy Kerley could be poised to make an impact in his second season. He demonstrates a lot of quickness and could become the next big contributor out of the slot in the AFC East. Patrick Turner saw snaps last year and is still in the equation. He is a big-bodied receiver who doesn’t separate all that well or stretch the field. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Jets were to add another free-agent wide receiver to the mix before training camp.

4. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins could presently have the worst group of wide receivers in the NFL. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline top Miami’s depth chart. That is frightening.

Bess is a prototypical slot receiver with excellent short-area quickness. He is good after the catch and can thrive with a strong supporting cast on the outside, but he is by no means a feature receiver. Bess is dependable, but not much of a factor near the goal line. Hartline can stretch the field, but he too doesn’t excel in the red zone. To me, Hartline is a borderline starter in any situation. He also will not be able to be the focal point of the passing attack. In what is sure to be a run-first offense in Miami, Bess and Hartline also offer very little as blockers.

The only other notable veteran here is Legedu Naanee, who was unspectacular for the Panthers in 2011. Naanee does have some ability and his blocking will endear him to this coaching staff in their run-first offense. Maybe this change of scenery and opportunity for playing time pays off for Naanee. Clyde Gates, a fourth-round pick from a year ago, will get ample opportunity to step up in his second season. Gates has rare long speed but caught only two passes in his rookie season. A full offseason could help quite a bit, but he has a long way to go in terms of learning the nuances of the position.

The Dolphins used late-round picks to add B.J. Cunningham and Rishard Matthews to this equation. In a deep receiver draft, the Dolphins made excellent value picks here, as both youngsters have intriguing size and movement skills. But counting on late-round rookies to kick start a passing game is far from a wise wager. The Dolphins need to improve at wide receiver in a big way, especially if they plan on maturing Ryan Tannehill as an NFL quarterback properly.

Here are the most interesting stories Sunday morning in the AFC East:

• Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix likes what backup quarterback Vince Young brings to the team.

Morning take: Expect Young to have a package in the offense, which could present another thing for opponents to prepare for. He still has the athleticism to pose a threat.

• Josh McDaniels is happy to return as the New England Patriots offensive coordinator .

Morning take: McDaniels' stint as a head coach fizzled out, but he was great as an offensive coordinator. Look for New England's offense to continue to thrive under McDaniels and quarterback Tom Brady.

• Former New York Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson says he's pretty much done with football.

Morning take: Tomlinson is putting his Hall of Fame career to the side. But the right opportunity with a title contender could yet make him change his mind.

• Here are 10 lingering questions on the Miami Dolphins.

Morning take: I want to know which quarterback is the best fit for head coach Joe Philbin's West Coast offense. Matt Moore played well last season, but David Garrard is better versed in the system. They will battle it out in training camp.

We have another interesting poll this weekend in the AFC East blog. The Buffalo Bills made an interesting quarterback addition Friday by singing former first-round pick Vince Young. It adds depth to Buffalo’s duo of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen.

With that said, who has the second-best quarterback situation in the AFC East? Tom Brady and the New England Patriots obviously lead the way, so we are (again) taking the reigning AFC champs out of the equation.

Do you like the Bills’ trio of Fitzpatrick, Thigpen and now Young? Fitzpatrick is the unquestioned starter, and Thigpen and Young will battle for the No. 2 role. Both can move well in the pocket and have starting experience.

What about the New York Jets? They have starter Mark Sanchez and popular backup Tim Tebow. Both have won in the playoffs. Greg McElroy is the developmental No. 3 quarterback.

Finally, the Miami Dolphins have an interesting trio of Matt Moore, David Garrard and Ryan Tannehill. Moore and Garrard are expected to battle for the starting job this year, while Tannehill, a first-round pick, is the quarterback of the future. Is this the most talented trio?

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on the second-best quarterback group in the division. You can also share your thoughts in the comment section below.

Anything can happen in the NFL. There are surprises, injuries, etc. that can change the annual landscape.

However, let's be honest: Only the biggest AFC East homers would pick against the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots winning the division next year. The Patriots have by far the best quarterback, the best head coach, the easiest schedule in the NFL and were within a drive of winning the Super Bowl. Plus, New England was the only AFC East team with a winning record in 2011. The gap is just too wide.

With that said, that brings us to our latest poll question: Who should be the preseason favorite to finish in second place in the division?

Is it last year's second-place team: the New York Jets? They were 8-8 in 2011, which was a disappointment for this talented group. The Jets are a team built to win now and expect a bounce-back year. Is second place in their future?

What about the upstart Buffalo Bills? They had a great offseason that included additions like defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The Bills are trying to make it a big year in Buffalo. Can they make the jump?

Finally, will the Miami Dolphins finish in second place? The Dolphins will try to be competitive under first-year head coach Joe Philbin and starting quarterback Matt Moore or David Garrard.

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on which AFC East team most likely will finish in second place. You can also share your thoughts in the comment section below.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady spent time with teammate Wes Welker last weekend at the Kentucky Derby. Between the schmoozing and excitement of horse racing, Brady should have given his top receiver a subtle message and said, "Buddy, it's time to get back to work."

There is one thing for certain about the Patriots: You do not fight the machine.

Welker is facing an uphill battle he cannot win. Many have tried before him and failed. Welker is not the exception.

Welker has yet to sign his franchise tender and hasn't decided how long he's going to protest New England's one-year, $9.5 million offer. The potential distraction has been held to a minimum thus far, but it would only grow stronger if Welker continued to skip New England's offseason program.

The Patriots' mandatory minicamp is scheduled for June 12. The best advice is for Welker to have his mind made up by that time. Missing New England's current voluntary program is not a big thing. But if Welker also chooses to skip the Patriots' three-day veteran minicamp, that is when he's hurting the team in the eyes of the coaching staff.

At that point the gloves may come off -- and Welker doesn't want that.

New England is emotionless and shrewd in negotiations. Just ask three-time Super Bowl winner Willie McGinest, who apparently still carries some level of bitterness about how he was handled by the Patriots at the end of his career. McGinest recently got into a Twitter spat with Welker about his contract situation and delivered this stern message.

"We're all expendable at Patriot Place," McGinest tweeted to Welker.

McGinest is right. NFL players in general are expendable, but even more so in New England.

Welker needs to be more mindful of how the Patriots often treat players like replaceable and interchangeable parts. It happened to McGinest, who spent the final three years of his career with the struggling Cleveland Browns. It happened to Richard Seymour, who was great for eight seasons with the Patriots and suddenly shipped to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round draft pick. The Patriots also traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings when Moss grew unhappy about his contract.

Welker should know better. No one player is above the team in New England. That is the Patriot Way.

This is not to say Welker hasn't worked hard and doesn't have a point about long-term security. This is more about wisely navigating the cruel business side of the NFL. It's all about leverage. Welker has little. New England has plenty. Sometimes it's best to accept your fate and move forward.

Welker remains steadfast in shedding the franchise tag for a long-term contract.

"Through my body of work, through the past five years, I think what I've done I've earned a long-term deal,” Welker recently told ESPN Boston Radio. "It's what I am looking for and what I want. Hopefully that's the case and hopefully we come to something where we can make that happen."

Do not think for one second that New England is not prepared for the worst. All the Patriots have done this offseason is sign wide receivers.

New England signed receivers Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Gonzalez and Donte’ Stallworth in free agency. All are productive veterans who have a chance to add something to the offense. The Patriots also re-signed veteran Deion Branch, backup Matthew Slater, and drafted rookie receiver Jeremy Ebert. Chad Ochocinco and Julian Edelman also remain on the roster.

New England will have an elite passing game next season with or without Welker.

If Welker decides to stage a lengthy holdout, Lloyd and Gaffney would be the starters, while Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth and Ochocinco compete in training camp for backup roles. New England also runs a lot of two tight-end sets with Pro Bowler Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is still a very deep and talented group of targets for Brady, who also has a knack for making everyone around him a couple of notches better.

Despite 122 receptions and 1,569 yards last year, the Patriots have found a way to make Welker replaceable. But that's only if Welker chooses to be and doesn't sign his franchise tender.

The next move should be the best move by Welker. He should sign the franchise tag, take the $9.5 million and see if anything changes over the next several months at Patriot Place.

Because there's always a chance the Patriots could have a change of heart between now and August. New England has the salary-cap room to extend the 31-year-old Welker and give him the long-term security he's seeking. But it's going to be on the Patriots' terms, not Welker's.

Last week ESPN.com's blog team examined big questions around the NFL. I had four in the AFC East that need to be answered that you can check out here.

This week we want to look at four smaller questions about the AFC East. Credit goes to NFC East blogger Dan Graziano for the idea.

Will the Jets improve safety play?

Opponents found the weakness in the New York Jets' defense in the second half of last season. The Jets were exploited time after time over the middle of the field, particularly by opposing tight ends. It was part of the reason the Jets lost their final three games.

Will New York improved its safety play in 2012? The Jets are banking on LaRon Landry to be an upgrade over Jim Leonhard. Landry is a bigger hitter but his coverage skills are questionable. Landry also has injury concerns. Eric Smith struggled last season but will get another year in the starting lineup. Neither safety is known for coverage.

The corners -- Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -- will do their job. But the Jets could have the same issues over the middle if Smith and Landry don't step up.

Will Shawne Merriman contribute?

Where does Merriman fit with the 2012 Buffalo Bills? It depends mostly on Merriman's health. The outside linebacker is trying to return from back-to-back season-ending Achilles injuries.

Buffalo could use a rejuvenated "Lights Out" coming off the edge this year. The Bills have made it a point to improve their pass rush by investing most of their free-agent dollars on starting defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Merriman has lacked the burst he had earlier in his career. But if he can add several sacks to the pile for the Bills, that would be a huge bonus.

Can the Miami Dolphins find a second pass-rusher?

Speaking of pass-rushers, the Dolphins have one in Cameron Wake, who just received a $49 million extension. But who will take the pressure and double-teams off Wake, which was a major issue last season?

Miami's defense is strong in many areas. The team is expected to use more 4-3 looks under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Wake will be a threat on one edge, but someone needs to step up on the opposite side.

Miami's second-leading player in sacks last year was Jason Taylor, who is retired. Maybe defensive lineman Jared Odrick has the potential to fill the void. The Dolphins also drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round to bolster the pass rush.

Will Patriots' running game produce?

The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots improved their defense. They upgraded their wide receivers and signed several offensive linemen.

But what about New England's running game? The Patriots did little at tailback. They lost leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signed Joseph Addai, which is a downgrade. Addai averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season.

The key will be the development of second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. New England hopes one or both players make a big jump in Year 2. The Patriots will be a pass-heavy team. There's no denying that. But the running backs have to make the most of their opportunities when quarterback Tom Brady isn't throwing the ball.

Here are the most interesting stories Monday morning in the AFC East:

• New England Patriots teammates Tom Brady and Wes Welker were together at the Kentucky Derby.

Morning take: Brady and Welker have spent a lot of time together this offseason. The pair hope to get it right this time and lead New England to another Super Bowl.

• Who is the biggest rival for the New York Jets?

Morning take: Although the article says the Miami Dolphins, it has to be the Patriots. New York and New England have had more big games, and the rivalry has more hatred.

• A YouTube video helped Monmouth quarterback Alex Tanney get a tryout with the Buffalo Bills.

Morning take: Tanney is a long shot, but his trick throws got him an opportunity. The Bills continue to turn over every rock to find a third quarterback.

• Are the Dolphins changing perceptions?

Morning take: Recently things are slowly improving. But the best way to do it is on the field. Miami has to win, and there’s no way around that.