Draft machine: Avoid errands here

March, 13, 2010
Mar 13
10:54
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By Paul Kuharsky
Can’t remember if we had this in such complete fashion last year or not, but boy is it a good way to pass some time playing around on the Internet.

You’ve got the draft order, you’ve got a database of players and you’ve got the ability to drag and drop -- my absolute favorite thing on the site outside of AFC South blog readers.

My advice? Put off your weekend errands until you’ve played with this for a while, then go get stuff done, then come back.

My Primary Complaint: Interpreting visits

March, 12, 2010
Mar 12
3:38
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By Paul Kuharsky

Baskett talks about onside struggle

March, 12, 2010
Mar 12
1:22
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By Paul Kuharsky
Maybe he’s spoken about it, but if he did I missed it. I’m glad reporters in Philly asked Hank Baskett about botching the Saints’ onside kick that started the second half of Super Bowl XLIV and turned the game.

Of course he downplays his first chance at the ball, which he had a clean shot at even after being surprised -- it bounced off his face mask.

A few days after the game, I tried to get Baskett to talk about it, but his agent passed.

Courtesy of the Eagles PR staff, here’s that snippet of his interview after rejoining the Eagles:
On whether he caught any flack for losing the onside kick in the Super Bowl:

“I thought everybody was going to come down on me for it. As everybody knows, anybody who follows football, one play does not change the game. It sucks that the first onside kick in history before the fourth quarter had to happen to me. It was a battle underneath the pile, but I actually haven’t been just beaten down about it. I knew I was probably going to catch some grief. Of course, it’s the biggest game of the year, but not what I was expecting or anybody else was expecting.”

On whether he knew that the onside kick was coming:

“I took the step, I took the steps back and then I saw it coming. I went and it took a bad bounce and I don’t know how I had a second chance. I crawled under everybody and got back on it. It was a long time underneath there. Guys on our team attested that they heard it was ‘blue ball’ so when I started getting up, another guy poked it out and that’s how the guy got it. It was a long battle. I’ll tell you, it seemed like we were down there for a good half hour.”

Hood's good as veteran insurance

March, 12, 2010
Mar 12
1:15
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By Paul Kuharsky
Odds are the starting cornerback opposite Cortland Finnegan on opening day for the Titans is a rookie or one of two second-year men, Jason McCourty or Ryan Mouton.

But with such an approach, Tennessee needs a veteran option who could play if none of those guys are ready, or to step in when someone gets hurt.

The Titans secured theirs Friday by re-signing Rod Hood.

It’s a far better plan than last year’s, when Jeff Fisher and the Titans decided a corner they’d burned for years when he was a Texan, DeMarcus Faggins, could fill that role. Faggins didn’t make the roster, and the Titans suffered from lack of depth at corner until they eventually added Hood.

He played well in some situations, OK in others. Fans who wanted to blame everything on a slipping Nick Harper, however, canonized Hood in a way he didn’t deserve.

If he’s the second corner, he’ll be hard pressed to rate as well as Denard Walker, Andre Dyson or Harper did as previous No. 2 cornerbacks.

At their peak, they were all sufficient, even as critics marveled at how opposing offenses actually completed passes in games while perhaps steering away from Samari Rolle or Finnegan.

So the insurance plan is in place.

It’s time now for the Titans to focus on offseason progress for McCourty and Mouton and on drafting a guy in the first or third round who can prove a better alternative than all the existing options.

Reading the coverage: More on 'not elite'

March, 12, 2010
Mar 12
10:34
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By Paul Kuharsky
Houston Texans

Visit with James Casey as he goes back to school.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts announced the Andy Alleman signing. Something I might start -- keeping track of the distance between an Indy move coming to light and the team announcing it. Have they cut Ryan Lilja yet? Drafted Peyton Manning?

John Oehser looks at the defensive ends.

Pierre Garcon visited Washington.

Nate Dunlevy reveals himself at 18to88.com.

Jacksonville Jaguars

More obvious stuff on David Garrard: He agrees with Jack Del Rio’s assessment that he’s not elite, writes Vito Stellino.

Wayne Weaver says the Jaguars will not force a pick for Tim Tebow, says Stellino.

Vic Ketchman on quarterback Wonderlic scores.

Tennessee Titans

Kevin Mawae remains in wait-and-see mode, says Terry McCormick.

Talking through the basics of free agency with Vince Troia and McCormick.

Chat wrap: Secrets revealed

March, 12, 2010
Mar 12
8:37
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By Paul Kuharsky
Attendance was strong at our weekly chat Thursday. I felt like we battled in all three phases and I'm proud of the effort. Now we just have to wait on the judges to get back to us to see if we won.

As always, I appreciate the participation. A special thanks to my regulars, who come rain or shine, fill my mailbag, follow me on Twitter and/or Facebook and generally make my life better, easier and much more fun. You know who you are.

Here's a transcript from them and for all of you to read and reread the chat all day and into the weekend.

The case for not trading down in draft

March, 11, 2010
Mar 11
4:41
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By Paul Kuharsky
Everyone wants their team to trade down.

[+] EnlargeGary Kubiak
Scott A. Miller/US PresswireTexans coach Gary Kubiak said that trading down in the draft is "a hell of a lot easier said than done."
I get more e-mails at this time of year asking me about the possibility of the Jaguars trading out of the No. 10 spot in the NFL draft in hopes of getting more. The same kinds of questions come from Titans fans hoping their team will opt out of selecting 16th overall. Texans fans (No. 20) and Colts followers (No. 31) aren’t averse to the idea of trading down, either.

So I am here to tell you, while trading up is often too expensive, trading down is often overrated.

For starters, to get down, you need a team that wants to move up.

“Sitting in the draft room for many years, I think those are conversations that always come up: 'Well, wouldn’t it be nice to move back and pick up a couple other picks?'" Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. “Well in that 10 minutes or whatever you have before that pick, if you’re not a hot commodity at that time and nobody wants to talk to you, you better be ready to do business.

“I think it’s probably a hell of a lot easier said than done.”

Said Jacksonville GM Gene Smith in a recent conference call with season-ticket holders: “My mindset is to acquire picks. If we’re able to do that, I’ll have a smile on my face.”

But even if you have a lot of needs, like Smith, is that the right route?

Let’s look at the recent trade-down history of our four teams and then assess. We’re considering just picks-for-picks trades, not moves that include veteran players.

In the last six years, with the help of Jason Vida of ESPN Stats & Information and prosportstransactions.com, here are first-round trade-downs in the division.



Houston

2008 -- Traded with Baltimore
Gave: No. 18 in first round (quarterback Joe Flacco)

[+] EnlargeDuane Brown
Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty ImagesThe Texans drafted Duane Brown after trading down in the first round of the 2008 draft.
Got: No. 26 pick in first round (offensive tackle Duane Brown), a third-round pick (86th overall, running back Steve Slaton) and a sixth-round pick (173rd overall, defensive back Dominique Barber)

Value chart says: Ravens, 900-883.2 points

Assessment: Baltimore got its quarterback and Flacco is clearly the most valuable player of all of these. The Texans got their left tackle (Brown), a skill player who’s had one great year and one terrible season (Slaton) and some shaky secondary depth (Barber).
2005 -- Traded with New Orleans
Gave: No. 13 in first round (offensive tackle Jammal Brown)

Got: No. 16 in first round (defensive tackle Travis Johnson) and a third-round pick in 2006 (66th overall, offensive tackle Eric Winston)

Value chart: Texans, 1,260-1,150. (That link is to an NFL-style draft value chart like the ones teams use to measure trade values.)

Assessment: Brown has been a Pro Bowler twice and an All-Pro once. Johnson underachieved and was traded. Winston is a very solid starter, but the Saints got more bang here, I think.

Indianapolis

Sidenote: The Colts gave up their 2008 first-rounder and their 2007 fourth-rounder to get the 2007 second-rounder from San Francisco they used to draft offensive tackle Tony Ugoh. That can be classified in different ways. I see it more as the Colts going up to get Ugoh, so I don’t use it as a trade-down scenario here.

2004 --Traded with Atlanta
Gave: No. 29 in the first round (wide receiver Michael Jenkins) and a third-round pick (90th overall, quarterback Matt Schaub)

Got: No. 38 in the second round (traded to Steelers for a second-round pick, 44th overall, Bob Sanders and fourth-round pick, 107th overall, linebacker Kendyll Pope), a third-round pick (69th overall, linebacker Gilbert Gardner), and a fourth-round pick (125th overall, cornerback Jason David)

Value chart says: Colts, 845-780

Assessment: A double-trade down netted the Colts Sanders. He may miss way too many games due to injuries, but he won a defensive player of the year award and keyed a Super Bowl team. But Schaub sure proved to have value for Atlanta when Houston came calling a couple years later.

Jacksonville
2007 -- Traded with Denver

Gave: No. 17 in first round (defensive end Jarvis Moss)

[+] EnlargeReggie Nelson
Scott A. Miller/US PresswireThe Jaguars' Reggie Nelson had a disappointing sophomore season.
Got: No. 21 in first round (safety Reggie Nelson); a third-round pick (86th overall, traded to Baltimore for a fourth-round pick, 101st overall , a fifth-round pick, 166th overall, and a sixth-round pick 203rd overall); and a sixth-round pick (198th overall, traded to Atlanta as part of package for a fifth-rounder, 149th overall, guard Uche Nwaneri). Punter Adam Podlesh and defensive tackle Derek Landri came out of that trade with Baltimore, with the 203rd pick also going to Atlanta in the trade that got Jacksonville Nwaneri

Value chart says: Jaguars 973.2-950 (not factoring in trades of other picks involved)

Assessment: They did OK, but if Nelson continues on his current course, we'll remember them failing with another first-rounder.

Titans

2004 -- Traded with Houston
Gave: No. 27 in the first round (defensive end/outside linebacker Jason Babin) and a fifth-round pick (159th overall, traded to Jacksonville)

Got: No. 40 in the second round (tight end Ben Troupe), a third-round pick (71st overall, defensive tackle Randy Starks), a fourth-round pick (103rd overall, defensive end Bo Schobel), and a fifth-round pick (138th overall, guard Jacob Bell)

Value chart says: Titans, 860-708.8

Assessment: On draft day, it looked like a monster win for Tennessee and in time, because Babin busted, it still leaned their way. But for the Titans, only Bell was a consistent performer. It’s easy to look back on drafts and play what if, I know, but what if the Titans or the Texans had used No. 27 on Sanders or Karlos Dansby or Chris Snee?

Conclusions:

Let’s emphasize this is not scientific and it's not a very big sample size.

Still, these five deals produced just one player we’d rate as stellar, and Sanders has major injury issues. They also yielded AFC South teams a left tackle who still has to prove himself (Brown), a defensive tackle who busted (Johnson), a free safety whose second year was very poor (Nelson) and a tight end who’s out of the league (Troupe).

Trading down doesn’t always produce the yield everyone imagines. One very good player is better than a couple who rank a notch below. The chance at that player is typically better where you are, not lower than that.

So if the Jaguars see someone they like a lot at 10 or if the Titans see someone they like a lot at 16, they should jump, not dump.

How I See It: AFC South Stock Watch

March, 11, 2010
Mar 11
1:01
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By Paul Kuharsky
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Falling

Chris White, RG, Texans: White played eight games as the starting right tackle for Houston last season as the Texans tried to recover from the early loss of their two starting guards. The Texans gave up 25 sacks of Matt Schaub and had major trouble running the ball, and upgrading the interior line has been a priority. Thus the arrival of free-agent guard Wade Smith, who’s getting $3 million a year for four years in a new free-agent deal. One would expect that cash is intended to go into the pocket of a starter. However it sorts out, White will be moving down the depth chart.

Rising

Aaron Kampman, DE, Jaguars: After a tough year with Green Bay’s switch to a 3-4 and a blown-out knee, Kampman still qualified as an attractive pass-rusher. In Jacksonville, he landed with a team desperate for both sacks and defensive leadership. He’s got a prime chance to re-establish himself and make a real impact for a team that had major pass-rush deficiencies last year, and he was alluring enough that a fiscally conservative team dished out $11 million guaranteed to secure his services. He’s a guy who can have a ripple effect on effort and work ethic.

Reading the coverage: Privacy please

March, 11, 2010
Mar 11
10:14
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By Paul Kuharsky
Quality read

This piece by Mike Tanier on privacy in the Internet age extends well beyond issues for draft prospects.

Houston Texans

John McClain’s take on Wade Smith joining the Texans.

Mark Berman spoke to Smith.

The new corner is likely coming in the first three rounds of the draft, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Marlin Jackson signed with the Eagles, says Mike Chappell.

A look at some financial issues for the Colts from 18to88.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A wish list from Vic Ketchman.

A talk with strength and conditioning coach Luke Richesson from jaguars.com.

Successful teams are disciplined, says Ketchman.

A look at Derrick Harvey, from Terry O’Brien.

Tennessee Titans

Will Witherspoon is ready to get it going for the Titans, says Jim Wyatt.

Witherspoon is high on Jason Babin, the end the Titans have hosted, says Wyatt.

Yes, Thursday is Chatday

March, 11, 2010
Mar 11
8:46
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By Paul Kuharsky
Six days a week we try to walk the walk at the AFC South Blog, but on Thursdays, we take some time to talk the talk.

It's always a star-studded and spicy affair where we debate personnel, offseason philosophies, coaching, scouting, my dog, potential relocation for the Kuharsky family, movies, TV shows, books, music and LenDale White's trade value.

If that list doesn't draw you in, I don't know what will.

Join us here at 3 p.m. ET, 2 p.m. CT.

This week's chat is sponsored by new Jacksonville Jaguars receiver and special-teamer Kassim Osgood, who was nice to us in a Twitter exchange.

Smith increases Texans' interior options

March, 10, 2010
Mar 10
7:27
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By Paul Kuharsky
Options on the interior offensive line rated as a big need for the Texans heading into the offseason, and they landed one Wednesday with Wade Smith, the free agent from Kansas City.

Smith
Smith
Smith agreed to a four-year, $12 million deal, according to a source, that has $6.25 million in guarantees.

A big part of Houston’s offensive troubles last year were related to the interior line, where starting guard Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel went down early with season-ending injuries. Kasey Studdard and Chris White were less than stellar as fill-ins.

Pitts is unrestricted and unlikely to return, and now Smith will jostle with the rest of that group and last year's offensive line pick, Antoine Caldwell, who backed up center Chris White, for a role. I’d expect they expect Smith's an upgrade who will start. And while they could take another interior lineman in the draft, it shouldn't be a spot they prioritize ahead of cornerback, free safety or running back.

Here’s Scouts Inc.’s review of Smith, which makes him sound very much like a guy that fits what the Texans like to do up front:
Smith had been pretty much a career backup up until he started seven games in 2008. He is athletic with good short-area quickness, agility, balance and body control. His most glaring weakness is his inability to stop powerful bull rushers on the inside. He understands angles and can react to movement and adjust to counter moves. He is more of a finesse blocker than a road-grader. He gives the Chiefs solid depth in that he can back up multiple positions.

Contract done, Brackett's house hunting

March, 10, 2010
Mar 10
5:04
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By Paul Kuharsky
Gary Brackett recently spoke with Bob Kravitz and Eddie White on 1070 The Fan in Indianapolis.

He said the big purchase resulting from his big new contract is going to be a new Brackett family home.
“I’ve been house-hunting. I think I’m overdue as far as getting a house. I have a growing family, I’m getting married shortly in July. My daughter turns 1 the 22nd, and I also have custody of my nephew who’s 8 years old. So I think a growing family that’s just run out of space -- so just looking to upgrade a little bit.”

For more excerpts and link to the audio, head here.

Kiper vs. McShay in AFC South

March, 10, 2010
Mar 10
2:50
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By Paul Kuharsky
We’ve got mock draft battle up Wednesday at ESPN.com, and while you need to be an Insider to see it all, I’ve received top-secret clearance to tell you what Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have to say about the AFC South.

So here they are, with thoughts from yours truly:

10th – Jacksonville

Kiper: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

McShay: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

Kuharsky: From what I know, I think either would stand to help the Jaguars. A lot depends on what they are feeling about Reggie Nelson, who didn’t earn a lot of confidence in 2009.

16th – Titans

Kiper: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texans

McShay: Morgan

Kuharsky: Need wise, I see more for Morgan than for Kindle. A prime pass-rusher is, as it was in 1999, the primary missing ingredient for this defense, when Tennessee drafted Jevon Kearse 16th.

20th – Texans

Kiper: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

McShay: Wilson

Kuharsky: Wilson can certainly help fill the Dunta Robinson hole, but if the right running back or free safety is there (Kiper has C.J. Spiller and Thomas still available), Houston could easily go one of those directions.

31st – Colts

Kiper: Brian Price, DT, UCLA

McShay: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida

Kuharsky: With Ryan Lilja let go, the Colts lack established guards. And trying to get bigger, Pouncey can bring that. But they draft the best player available at the top, and if it’s Price, they could go there.

Draft Watch: AFC South

March, 10, 2010
Mar 10
12:00
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By Paul Kuharsky
» NFC Recent History: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/24) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Recent history.

Houston Texans

The best move the Texans made in the past three seasons was trading a second-round pick in 2007 and 2008 to Atlanta for Matt Schaub, a quarterback who’s the key to their offense and team. With so many teams in need of a quality starter, that trade seems like a steal now. They’ve taken four defensive backs with the 10 picks they’ve made in the fifth round or later, and out of Brandon Harrison, Dominique Barber, Brice McCain and Troy Nolan they’ve not found a guy who has been able to contribute consistently. It’s time to spend a big pick on a free safety or corner who has great ball skills.

Indianapolis Colts

Skill positions get attention early, with receiver Anthony Gonzalez and running back Donald Brown grabbed with the two first-rounders in the past three years. The hits in the third round and later have become significant players: Clint Session, Pierre Garcon, Jerraud Powers, Austin Collie, Pat McAfee. Trouble spot? Look to the five offensive linemen who haven’t really panned out. That’s understandable with Steve Justice (sixth in 2008), Jamey Richard (seventh in 2008) and Jaimie Thomas (seventh in 2009), but Tony Ugoh (second in 2007) and Mike Pollak (second in 2008) have left the team with holes and problems that need to be addressed in April. Out of five picks there has to be at least one starter, probably two.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Two first-round picks out of Florida have not met expectations, but the Jaguars still hope safety Reggie Nelson and defensive end Derrick Harvey can become consistent players. Of 25 picks, only one is established as a playmaker on offense, Mike Sims-Walker (third-rounder in 2007). That’s a big part of the reason the team’s not especially potent on offense beyond Maurice Jones-Drew. The top four from the 2009 draft got significant starting experience as rookies, and the 2010 class will have similar opportunities. While Harvey can be steady, he’s not an explosive pass-rusher, and Quentin Groves has struggled. Even with Aaron Kampman signed, they still need another pass-rusher.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have fared nicely with pass-rushers from lesser-known schools -- William Hayes of Winston-Salem State is on the brink of big things and Jacob Ford of Central Arkansas is a skilled rusher. Contributions from second-rounders have been minimal -- Chris Henry is already gone, Jason Jones hasn’t stayed healthy or consistent and Sen'Derrick Marks had no impact as a rookie. After hitting a home run with seventh-rounder Cortland Finnegan in 2006, late-round corners Ryan Smith, Cary Williams and, so far, Jason McCourty, haven’t panned out. A quality corner is a need early in this draft.

Jaguars ticket sales update

March, 10, 2010
Mar 10
11:32
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By Paul Kuharsky
We will not get a full sense of how the Jaguars are doing at the box office until March 19 -- which is when season ticket renewals are due.

But the team's been working feverishly on the marketing end of things and reaching out at rallies and events to spur interest.

Here's an update Vito Stellino provided from the same story in the previous post that focused on fan interest, or lack of it, in Tim Tebow. This came after Gene Smith took questions for more than 45 minutes on a conference call with season-ticket holders:
Tim Connolly, who runs their ticketing department, gave an update on the ticket sales. He said the Jaguars have sold 5,000 new season tickets so far, compared to 400 at this time last year, and gave a lot of the credit to the buzz created by Touchdown Jacksonville, the civic group spearheading the ticket-selling campaign.

Connolly said about 35 percent of the 27,000 season tickets have been renewed, but he said most of the fans renew at the last minute. The renewal deadline is March 19.

A gain of 5,000 is great at this point. The draft will spur more. But the season-ticket renewals key it all. The Jaguars have to hold onto their core while trying to grow it. We'll be looking for that number as soon as Connolly has it.
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