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» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

The Jaguars' schedule and our regularly scheduled chat sync up rather well today.

We head inside for the second half of the team's organized team activities, which are conducted in private. Then we head out for post-practice interviews about 50 minutes later.

That gives me noon ET to 12:45 p.m. (11 a.m. CT to 11:45 a.m.) to have a speedy, shortened chat. I'll strive to give you an hour's worth of talk in just 45 minutes.

So come join in as we roll through all things AFC South.

Just head here.

Reading the coverage ...

Who had the best defensive end season in AFC South history? Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report asks and examines.

Houston Texans

The Texans are playing a numbers game, as Whitney Mercilus is now wearing 59 (which used to belong to DeMeco Ryans) and undrafted rookie linebacker Shawn Loiseau has Mario Williams’ old 90, says Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle.

Houston plans to bid for the 2017 Super Bowl, says David Barron of the Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

Ryan Grigson thinks Cassius Vaughn has not hit his ceiling yet, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Mike Chappell of the Star discusses continuing coverage in Indy of Peyton Manning and other former Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Thirty-year-old fullback Naufahu Tahi served his Mormon mission in Jacksonville and now he’s back, trying to earn a roster spot with the Jaguars, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Why Mike Thomas is not likely to be on the roster bubble, from Ganguli. Thomas would really have to bomb for this to become any sort of an issue, and Lee Evans would have to really bounce back.

The Jaguars have opened up contract talks with some of their draft picks, says Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

It’s time for Titans cornerback Jason McCourty to take on a bigger leadership role, writes John Glennon of The Tennessean. I agree and I think McCourty is ready to do it.

Glennon found Golf Channel video of Jordan Babineaux getting golf tips.

Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton and Matt Williamson have teamed up for this Insider file that analyzes the core of each team to forecast NFL Power Rankings for 2015.

Factored in are five categories: roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching. The methodology to it all is explained here.

Let's take a look at where the AFC South ranks and share a snippet of the reasoning.

No. 9 -- Houston Texans

Dilfer on quarterback (6.5 out of 10 average by the panel) -- “Matt Schaub is a perfect fit in the Houston scheme; no player throws a better deep ball in the play-action game. Playoff success will allow him to take the next step in terms of his league profile. T.J. Yates proved he's a good insurance policy, but he also proved that the Houston coaches have a system that they feel is transferrable. If they can run it effectively, QBs will succeed here.”

No. 23 -- Tennessee Titans

Williamson on front office (5.75) -- “I like how this team is being built and Locker now looks to be in an excellent position to succeed going forward. Tennessee's front office probably doesn't get the credit it has deserved of late.”

No. 27 -- Indianapolis Colts

Williamson on coaching (4.75) -- “Everything is new in Indianapolis. There looks to be a strong blend of offensive and defensive coaching, but it's anyone's guess how they will all blend together, especially with a roster that still needs a ton of work. There will be serious growing pains as the Colts institute new schemes on both sides of the ball under new head coach Chuck Pagano.”

No. 30 -- Jacksonville Jaguars

Kiper on draft (4.5) -- “Occasionally confounding, the Jags did it again this year, picking punter Bryan Anger in the third round. They've actually nailed some defensive picks, but if Gabbert doesn't improve immensely, the overall grade is pretty poor. Common trend: You can pick well, but you're defined by whether you get a franchise QB.”

It’s awfully hard to project so far out and these rankings for AFC South teams seem to be pretty close to what they would be now.

I imagine fans of three of these teams will have a lot to say about why they are wrong. Feel free to use the space below to vent.

The Indianapolis Colts traded fullback Chris Gronkowski to Denver for cornerback Cassius Vaughn.

I like this on two levels:

I am anti-fullback and pro tight end. You might be throwing when a tight end or two is on the field. You’re probably running if a fullback is out there. It’s too narrow a role.

On the depth chart, the Colts are incredibly thin at corner after Jerraud Powers.

Here’s what Scouts Inc. has to say about Vaughn.

Vaughn is a good-sized corner with above-average top end speed and adequate agility, acceleration and body control. He flashes good strength as a tackler but has a tendency to duck his head and lunge when tackling in space. He shows marginal foot speed and quickness in his pedal and will struggle trying to extend the cushion. He looks a bit tight in the hips when opening to turn and run. He needs work on route recognition and reading the quarterback's eyes from off coverage but will show decent burst to close once he gets realigned and drives on the ball.

First off, here is my unsolicited idea on the NFL’s desire to provide reliable Wi-Fi for fans at all NFL stadiums: Turn goal posts and pylons into antennas.

Moving along and reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Punter Brett Hartmann now has league permission to take Ritalin, says Mark Berman of Fox Houston. His suspension was reduced from four games to three. I’m curious about why this case warranted a reduction, when suspensions related to violations of the league’s policies on such matters are usually cut and dried.

Rookie offensive lineman Brandon Brooks is the heaviest Texans player ever, says Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle. They’re asking him to drop 15 of his 346 pounds, and heat he’s not used to may help.

Linebackers coach Reggie Herring says the Texans gained back what they lost with the trade of DeMeco Ryans by adding Bradie James, according to Gregg Rosenthal.

Arian Foster says he can get better at everything and knows things are different for the Texans now that they’ve had success, says Robertson.

Indianapolis Colts

Tight end Dallas Clark signed with Tampa Bay after the Bucs got rid of Kellen Winslow.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Aaron Kampman and Rashean Mathis are enduring solitary roads to recovery from knee injuries, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Montell Owens isn’t against the idea of leg pads, says Ganguli.

Martellus Bennett thinks Laurent Robinson proved himself as a No. 1 receiver last year in Dallas, says Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have signed all of their draft picks except for first-rounder Kendall Wright, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- When Andrew Luck was getting grief from his draft classmates in New York over his primitive cell phone, Justin Blackmon was on board.

It turns out his own telecommunications situation isn’t exactly superior.

Blackmon tossed his iPhone off a roller coaster at Six Flags last season, and the person he tossed it to fumbled it. When he went and found it below, the screen was cracked and he couldn’t hear callers.

He eventually replaced it but the replacement was stolen. So he reverted back to an old one and now has a GPS that’s hard to read -- he has to constantly reset it as he tries to find his way around. And he has to put on big Beats headphones to fully participate in a call. (You’re better off texting him.)

So the No. 1 and No. 5 picks in the draft come into the AFC South with questionable cell phone situations.

Here’s hoping once they sign contracts and have a break they can upgrade to something more suited to their stature.

Blackmon thinks Luck should go first.

“He’s got a Nokia flip phone, I gave him crap about it this weekend (at the rookie premiere),” Blackmon said. “I don’t know why he keeps that thing, he just won’t get a new one. I know his upgrade is somewhere close. I’m nowhere around mine, and those iPhones run big money.”

Hat tip to NFL Network’s Albert Breer who tweeted the way to this very cool story:

An anonymous donor to Stanford has endowed the offensive coordinator position in Andrew Luck’s name. That means offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is now, officially, the school’s Andrew Luck director of offense.

"It is a huge tribute," said Luck of his named Directorship in this news release from the university. "To have anything endowed in my name is a complete honor. I feel very fortunate to have come to Stanford, and I have always enjoyed representing the University. The offensive coordinators I've had here helped me not only in football, but also to grow so much as a person. To be a part of that leadership and position is a very proud legacy for me."

The story also includes nice reflection on the honor from Hamilton and from coach David Shaw, who’s also known as the Bradford M. Freeman director of football .

Now, is there a rich Coby Fleener lover who can get tight ends coach Ron Crook’s job endowed in his name?

The AFC South blog begins OTA/minicamp visits today.

As this is published, I’m en route to Jacksonville to check in on the Jaguars.

I’m looking forward to seeing some of three practices and talking with general manager Gene Smith and coach Mike Mularkey and some member of his staff. I’m also hoping I have the opportunity to meet newcomers Justin Blackmon, Andre Branch and Laurent Robinson, and the chance to spend time with veteran players including Blaine Gabbert, Paul Posluszny and Marcedes Lewis.

Plans are still being finalized for a trip to Houston for OTAs in the first full week of June, and a visit to the Colts minicamp June 12-14. I’ll also be at the Titans' minicamp June 19-21.

During these visits in the past, I’ve tried to gather stuff to share with you during the dog days of summer, when things are presumably quieter.

In 2010, I asked every guy I spoke with about an early football influence and wrote posts through the summer on those relationships, which seemed to be pretty well-received. (For those who like to reminisce, you can find them all in this post.)

Last year, there were no OTAs or minicamps because of the lockout. But during training-camp visits, I asked everyone about his favorite pregame music and provided pump-up playlists before the regular season started. (If you’re looking for iTunes additions, let the Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans offer some suggestions.)

In 2012, as I head to my first spring/early summer stop, I’ve not yet hit on my idea. It's one question that will evoke a wide range of answers that fans of these four teams will be interested in hearing an answer to from multiple players.

So if you’ve got one, there is no better time to share it than now, and no better place than in the comments section below.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are sidelined and healing, but there is no need to panic says Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

The Texans’ young receivers will get a more extensive look this spring with Johnson out, says Dale Robertson of the Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

A sampling of Peyton Manning’s talk with the Denver press after OTAs opened from the Broncos, from Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars' first coach, Tom Coughlin, seems energized by his work with the Giants and nowhere near retirement, says Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

Defensive tackle DaJohn Harris didn’t work out at the combine after doctors discovered a small hole in his heart. But now he’s determined to make the Titans as an undrafted free agent, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Indianapolis Colts fans will have to wait to get new snapshots of Andrew Luck. As his class finishes at Stanford, he can’t officially rejoin the team until June 8, and his minicamp participation June 12-14 will be much heralded.

Making it even tougher for fans of the Colts to wait on the present, is that their past is up and running.

Peyton Manning reportedly threw on target and with zip as the Denver Broncos kicked off their OTAs Monday.

He’s been gone for some time already.

But I imagine a lot of Colts fans will struggle at seeing pictures and video and hearing reports of Manning’s first day working with the Broncos in a group setting.

On SportsCenter just now I saw him doing his pre-snap pointing, taking drops and firing passes, then talking in front of a banner with Broncos logos on it.

Some in Indianapolis paid close attention, but I don’t doubt others felt they needed to change the channel.

John Clayton’s recent list of the NFL’s top 10 tight ends didn’t include anyone from the AFC South.

If he does a similar list in a year, will that change?

There are a lot of quality tight ends in the division, but they all carry questions. I don’t know if any can match the production of New England’s Rob Gronkowski or New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham, who are setting the standard for the new breed of players at the position.

Tennessee’s Jared Cook can be an extremely dangerous receiver. But through three seasons he’s been quite inconsistent. He finished with three very good games last year. That’s great and hopefully something to build on, but it’s hard not to wonder about why he wasn’t more effective in the rest of the games. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer seemed reluctant to really plan a game with a lot in it for Cook, who could fare better if Jake Locker is at quarterback rather than Matt Hasselbeck.

Houston’s Owen Daniels is an excellent pass catcher who can be a vital piece of the team’s offense. But he carries health questions. He played in every game last year but didn’t seem like the same guy he was before he missed five games in 2010 with a hamstring issue. He broke his hand in the Texans' first playoff game, but played with the injury in the second game. With the versatile Joel Dreessen gone, and the right side of the line being rebuilt, Daniels could be called on to block more.

Indianapolis will build a lot of its offense around Andrew Luck-to-Coby Fleener. Fleener, the team’s second-round pick, should be a primary target for his college teammate and could quickly earn a high ranking among the league’s tight ends.

Jacksonville’s Marcedes Lewis suffered a terrible drop-off in 2011 after a super-productive 2010 and a new contract. He was dealing with some difficult off-the-field issues, but needed to compartmentalize better to perform on Sundays. As part of a new offense, can he bounce back as a weapon or will the team be left to talk of his blocking?

Who will be regarded as the best after 16 games this fall and winter? Please chime in on our poll.

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

The Texans' goals for organized team activities in the form of a slideshow from Dale Robertson. Building on the good vibe from last season is one item here. The question is: Can it be built on or does it have to be rebuilt from the ground up in a new season?

Strength and conditioning coach Cedric Smith spoke with Nick Scurfield of the team’s website about where the team stands as OTAs commence.

Indianapolis Colts

Dan Pompei of the National Football Post sees the Colts' addition of seventh-round offensive lineman Justin Anderson as telling about their new direction.

Six overrated storylines from Colts offseason camps of the past, from Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Some Jaguars consider the concussion issue but decide the risk is worth it, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

Titans rookies are coming into the league during an unprecedented time of concern over concussions, says John Glennon.

Tracking win probability over the course of the Titans-Saints game last season, with Dunlevy.

Some thoughts on things that unfolded while I spent some time away from the blog last week. We may circle back to a few.

Houston Texans

The Texans intend to use James Casey as both their fullback and tight end. They tout his versatility and his ability to play both as part of what makes him attractive. But his single best quality is his soft hands. The Texans have a lot of people to throw to, but wherever they are lining Casey up, to maximize him as a player, they need to target him.

Houston isn’t interested in "Hard Knocks," and that shouldn’t be a surprise. I can’t imagine a camera tracking Gary Kubiak’s private training camp moments.

Indianapolis Colts

The team claimed Andre Smith off waivers from the Bears and cut Brody Eldridge in the same week. Eldridge didn’t seem to gain any traction with the new regime, which drafted two tight ends in the first three rounds. He was claimed by the Rams.

Meanwhile, former Colt Dallas Clark visited New England. It sure wouldn’t seem there is much opportunity for him with the Patriots, who’ve already got Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and signed veteran Daniel Fells earlier this offseason. It would be a surprise if Clark landed in New England unless he’s available later and someone gets hurt. He’s also visited Kansas City.

Jacksonville Jaguars

They are still the only known team that’s interested in "Hard Knocks." There is an idea floating around that they aren’t glamorous or compelling enough. But it’s a mistake to think the show needs a glamour team. Getting a thorough behind the scenes look at any team makes for compelling television, and interesting storylines abound in any camp by the mere nature of what is playing out.

Rashad Jennings is the team’s top back with Maurice Jones-Drew not participating in OTAs. I can’t see MJD getting the new deal he wants but I don’t think he’ll have a hard time learning the new offense once he arrives. Meanwhile, the capable Jennings will get valuable time after missing last season with an injury.

Tennessee Titans

There is a ton of talk about how different the Titans will be in 2012 after a full offseason for a coaching staff that worked with a quick turnaround in its first season. Receiver Nate Washington says the offense is going to sling it and defensive coordinator Jerry Gray is talking about installing his stuff rather than modifying the old stuff. We’ll see how much both of those ideas come to fruition.

Eugene Amano is rehabbing from knee surgery. But if the incumbent center, regarded as the line’s weak link, loses his job, it will be to an in-house competition. Kevin Matthews is currently in the best position to make a bid for the spot. There is bound to be some awkwardness to the competition, considering Matthews’ dad, Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, coaches the offensive line.

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub isn't in the elite Tom Brady-Peyton Manning class of NFL quarterbacks, but with the talent Houston has assembled around him on both sides of the ball, he's good enough to take the Texans to a Super Bowl. That, anyway, is the contention of SB Nation's Brian McDonald, taking issue with fans' grumbling about Schaub.

Indianapolis Colts

The NFL Network confirmed a Boston Globe report that former Colts tight end Dallas Clark worked out this week for the New England Patriots. But it looks like the Pats are just doing their due diligence, ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss writes -- noting that the team has signed a tight end since Clark's been on the market.

The team claimed Zane Taylor off waivers from Philadelphia -- the third offensive guard the Colts have so taken from the Eagles, Pro Football Weekly observes. They cut guard Matt Murphy to make room.

Jacksonville Jaguars

New offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski says skipping this week's organized team activities isn't doing Maurice Jones-Drew any favors. "It's certainly not helping him," Bratkowski, who's installing a new scheme, said of the running back, who often skips such OTAs, but this year wants a new contract. "Whether it’s hurting him or not, that remains to be seen."

With Jones-Drew absent, running back Rashad Jennings has been working with the starters, writes John Oehser of the team's web site.

Tennessee Titans

Safety Markelle Martin, a sixth-round draft pick from Oklahoma State, signed with the team, CBSSports.com reports.