Football Outsiders says the AFC South will stack up just the way the default prediction indicates:
“[T]here are two reasons for our relatively blasé Texans forecast," Aaron Schatz writes: "First, the offense has to deal with upheaval along the offensive line, losing right guard Mike Brisiel and right tackle Eric Winston. That is a downgrade in talent and continuity. Second, the defense is likely to hit the Plexiglas principle: Units that improve dramatically from one season to the next tend to decline a bit in the third season.”
“... Overall, the Titans' forecast ended up almost perfectly league average on offense, defense and special teams. They have 7.5 mean wins because of a tough schedule.
As of right this second: I think the Titans and Jaguars haggle for second place, with the better team probably two games off Houston’s pace. The Colts win a couple we don’t expect, but still need a second year to replenish a depleted roster.