Earlier today, I spent some time combing through what AFC South offenses have done by down and distance.
There is some telling information in there. Here is a bit on each of our teams.
Facing third-and-6 or less, Houston is not very predictable:
24 runs, 12 first downs
30 passes, 19 first downs
Defenses have to respect the run possibilities there, which helps the play-action and influences the passing numbers.
Facing second-and-10, Tennessee actually runs the ball better than it throws it:
8 runs, 3.38-yard average, but zero conversions
22 passes, 3.23 yard average, 13.64 percent conversions
For as bad as the Titans are at running the ball, those numbers are a real indictment of the passing game.
On third down, the Titans have run four times and thrown 72 times. Not hard for defenses to predict what's coming there.
Facing third-and-4 or less, Indianapolis has been compelled to throw:
5 runs, 3 first downs
24 passes, 9 first downs
While the conversion rate is better when they run it, they've done it infrequently and its shows a lack of faith in their ground game.
Facing first-and-10, the Jaguars have shown great balance:
51 runs for a 4.55-yard average
50 passes for 5.78 average yards
On second-and-6 or less, the Jaguars are probably going to run it:
22 runs, 4.64-yard average, 12 first downs
7 passes, 1.86 yard average, 1 first down
It's impressive they can gain that much on the ground considering there is hardly a reason to defend the pass.