Probabilities during Titans' winning drive

November, 30, 2009
11/30/09
3:24
PM ET
What did you think the Titans’ chances were when they took possession at their own 1-yard line with 2:37 to go and in need of a touchdown to beat the Cardinals Sunday?

ESPN Stats & Information passed on this interesting look at the probability of the Titans winning at the start of that drive and all the way along the way as calculated using this page at advancenflstats.com.

Key plays with time remaining in parenthesis:

  • (2:37) Start of final drive; 1st & goal at own 1-yd line -- 25%
  • (1:56) fourth-and-4 from own 7 -- 5%
  • (0:43) fourth-and-4 from ARI 44 -- 1%
  • (0:33) second-and-5 from ARI 26 -- 57% (first time in drive over 50%)
  • (0:28) third-and-5 from ARI 26 -- 40%
  • (0:21) first-and-goal from ARI 9 -- 69%
  • (0:17) second-and-goal from ARI 9 -- 19%
  • (0:11) third-and-goal from ARI 10 -- 11%
  • (0:06) fourth-and-goal from ARI 10 -- 5% (using TD pct here since we know it was last play of game)
There are so many different elements of the drive to praise, but clock management deserves special mention. Jeff Fisher’s teams are almost always well-schooled on clock management, showing no panic and generally making the right decisions.

Rarely on a Monday morning do beefs about the Titans revolve around a mismanaged timeout or a player’s failure to understand how to maximize time in a 2-minute drill.

Vince Young engineered this drive beautifully, and it more than made up for his stumble at the end of the first half. He stayed alive on the final play of the half instead of going down when he was in position to be sacked, extending a play that ran out the clock and erasing a chance for the team to call a timeout and kick a field goal.

He helped make it moot when he hit Kenny Britt on the final play of the game.

Doug Kern of ESPN Stats & Information says the Titans' "walk-off" touchdown was the ninth such TD in the NFL since 2000 and provides this list:

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