Probabilities during Titans' winning drive
November, 30, 2009
11/30/09
3:24
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
What did you think the Titans’ chances were when they took possession at their own 1-yard line with 2:37 to go and in need of a touchdown to beat the Cardinals Sunday?
ESPN Stats & Information passed on this interesting look at the probability of the Titans winning at the start of that drive and all the way along the way as calculated using this page at advancenflstats.com.
Key plays with time remaining in parenthesis:
Rarely on a Monday morning do beefs about the Titans revolve around a mismanaged timeout or a player’s failure to understand how to maximize time in a 2-minute drill.
Vince Young engineered this drive beautifully, and it more than made up for his stumble at the end of the first half. He stayed alive on the final play of the half instead of going down when he was in position to be sacked, extending a play that ran out the clock and erasing a chance for the team to call a timeout and kick a field goal.
He helped make it moot when he hit Kenny Britt on the final play of the game.
Doug Kern of ESPN Stats & Information says the Titans' "walk-off" touchdown was the ninth such TD in the NFL since 2000 and provides this list:
ESPN Stats & Information passed on this interesting look at the probability of the Titans winning at the start of that drive and all the way along the way as calculated using this page at advancenflstats.com.
Key plays with time remaining in parenthesis:
- (2:37) Start of final drive; 1st & goal at own 1-yd line -- 25%
- (1:56) fourth-and-4 from own 7 -- 5%
- (0:43) fourth-and-4 from ARI 44 -- 1%
- (0:33) second-and-5 from ARI 26 -- 57% (first time in drive over 50%)
- (0:28) third-and-5 from ARI 26 -- 40%
- (0:21) first-and-goal from ARI 9 -- 69%
- (0:17) second-and-goal from ARI 9 -- 19%
- (0:11) third-and-goal from ARI 10 -- 11%
- (0:06) fourth-and-goal from ARI 10 -- 5% (using TD pct here since we know it was last play of game)
Rarely on a Monday morning do beefs about the Titans revolve around a mismanaged timeout or a player’s failure to understand how to maximize time in a 2-minute drill.
Vince Young engineered this drive beautifully, and it more than made up for his stumble at the end of the first half. He stayed alive on the final play of the half instead of going down when he was in position to be sacked, extending a play that ran out the clock and erasing a chance for the team to call a timeout and kick a field goal.
He helped make it moot when he hit Kenny Britt on the final play of the game.
Doug Kern of ESPN Stats & Information says the Titans' "walk-off" touchdown was the ninth such TD in the NFL since 2000 and provides this list:
- 11/29/2009 TEN 20, ARI 17 -- Vince Young 10-yd pass to Kenny Britt, 18 plays,99 yards, 2:37
- 11/22/2009 DET 38, CLE 37 -- Matthew Stafford 1-yd pass to Brandon Pettigrew, 10 plays, 88 yards, 1:46
- 09/07/2008 CAR 26, SD 24 -- Jake Delhomme 14-yd pass to Dante Rosario, 11 plays, 68 yards, 2:27
- 11/06/2005 KC 27, OAK 23 -- Larry Johnson 1-yd rush, 8 plays, 72 yards, 1:45
- 09/12/2004 JAC 13, BUF 10- - Byron Leftwich 7-yd pass to Ernest Wilford, 14 plays, 80 yards, 2:07
- 12/28/2003 ARI 18, MIN 17- - Josh McCown 28-yd pass to Nate Poole, 6 plays, 61 yards, 1:54
- 09/28/2003 HOU 24, JAC 20- - David Carr 1-yd rush- 10 plays, 41 yards, 2:42
- 12/08/2002 CLE 21, JAC 20 -- Tim Couch 50-yd pass to Quincy Morgan, 3 plays, 53 yards,:50
- 10/14/2001 NO 27, CAR 25 -- Ricky Williams 1-yd rush- 13 plays, 82 yards, 1:48



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