Wednesday, January 9, 2013
A look at adjusted strength of schedules
By Paul Kuharsky
One problem with strength of schedule is that how you did against your opponents affects how good they were.
The Colts’ 2012 opponents were 113-133. But the Colts helped make that record bad. Eleven of those losses (and five of the wins) came against Indianapolis.
Jacksonville had the fourth toughest schedule in the league when you look at the overall records. Opponents had a .539 winning percentage, tied for the fourth toughest in the league. Take out their 2-14 record against those opponents, however, and the winning percentage was .517, just the 11th best.
John Fisher of ESPN Stats and Info provided the complete look at adjusted strength of schedule.
He took out a team’s own influence on its strength of schedule.
Where did the AFC South teams rank?
The Jaguars had the 11th toughest schedule, the Texans tied for 13th, the Titans tied for 16th and the Colts tied for 28th.
The Jaguars, Texans and Titans were middle of the pack, so I don’t think their schedule had too much influence on their record.
That can’t be said for the Colts. Indianapolis’ opponents winning percentage with their results taken out went up from .441 to .450. That’s still tied for 28th. It’s hard to argue that the Colts weren’t beneficiaries of an easy schedule.
Not that we should fault them for it. They can only play the teams the league tells them to.