AFC South: Aldon Smith
Texans trio helps team in playoff liftoff
January, 7, 2012
Jan 7
11:15
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez"That's kind of what I do, that's my thing," J.J. Watt said of his game-turning first half interception.HOUSTON -- The stadium rocked. A struggling team rebounded. Another rematch was set in motion.
A tie to the old era of Houston’s NFL football beamed.
“It’s just a great feeling to know that Houston’s back,” said Bum Phillips, coach of the Luv Ya Blue Oilers and father of Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
The Texans' best players played best Saturday at Reliant Stadium in a 31-10 thrashing of the Bengals that propelled Houston forward in the NFL playoffs to a Jan. 15 game in Baltimore. Houston lost 29-14 to the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 16.
After clinching the AFC South with a Dec. 11 victory at Cincinnati, the Texans sputtered, dropping their final three regular-season games, although the finale meant nothing to their playoff standing.
“We kind of got back to what we were doing during that seven-week stretch [Oct. 23 through Dec. 11, when we were 7-0],” coach Gary Kubiak said. “We played great defense, we found a way to run the ball, we never really hurt ourselves as a team. That was the key.”
The game had plenty of heroes, including efficient rookie quarterback T.J. Yates and cornerback Johnathan Joseph. Three of the team’s other top players, though, produced first-rate efforts worth a deeper look.
Running back Arian Foster: After Foster popped an 8-yard touchdown run in the first quarter to tie the score at 7-all, he changed sports as he celebrated.
A Lakers fan who apologizes to Houstonians for his NBA affection, he was talking with fans via Twitter during a recent Lakers-Rockets game. If the Rockets won, he pledged, he’d do a touchdown celebration paying homage to them.
The Lakers won and got him off the hook. But Foster decided to follow through with the idea anyway. He celebrated with Hakeem Olajuwon’s “Dream Shake” -- a hard stop with a ball fake, followed by a reversal and fadeaway jumper he tossed over the crossbar.
Foster finished with 24 carries for 153 yards and two scores. He was only the third undrafted running back in league history to eclipse 100 yards in his first playoff game, joining Ryan Grant (2007) and Paul Lowe (1960).
The Texans’ blocking was tremendous. According to ESPN Stats & Information, 102 of Foster’s rushing yards came prior to initial contact. That’s two-thirds of his total.
The second touchdown, a 42-yard ramble, was his most impressive run of the day. He got to the right sideline and looked to have no chance to stay in bounds. But he followed one good block, and surprised strong safety Chris Crocker with his balance and ability to navigate the sideline as he slowed down, then hit the jets.
“I guess he thought I was going out of bounds,” Foster said.
Defensive end J.J. Watt: Shortly after Jake Delhomme signed with the Texans on Nov. 30, the veteran quarterback was running the offense at a walk-through. Watt batted down several of his passes at the slow-paced practice and felt guilty for doing so.
“He was kind of mad at me,” Watt said. “And I was like, ‘That’s kind of what I do, that’s my thing.’”
He did his thing to Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton with 52 seconds left in the first half, but rather than knocking down the ball thrown from point-blank range, he caught it. And before many people on the field realized where it was, he was carrying it to a 29-yard touchdown that put Houston ahead 17-10.
Coaches and teammates said that while reporters and fans don’t see it, Watt snares balls like that all the time at practice.
And while several pass-catchers wouldn’t go so far as to say they’d struggle to make the same play, the guy with the best hands on the team wasn’t too proud to say otherwise.
“It’s almost impossible,” fullback James Casey said. “You’re so close to the ball, and obviously the guy is throwing it hard to have it on that trajectory. To be able to catch it like that is remarkable; that’s why you never see it happen.
“Guys bat balls down but they don’t actually catch it. I’d catch zero out of 10. Maybe out of 100, I’d catch one every now and then just getting lucky.”
Watt followed up that giant play by tracking Dalton as he fled the pocket and sacking him on the final play of the first half.
It was Watt’s first touchdown since high school. He didn’t score one as a tight end at Central Michigan or as a defensive end at Wisconsin.
Denver’s Von Miller or San Francisco’s Aldon Smith will win defensive rookie of the year, but Watt didn’t trail them by much in terms of overall initial impact. Miller will have a chance to match Watt’s postseason pace in a game Sunday.
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AP Photo/Dave EinselReceiver Andre Johnson's post-score jump into the stands sent Reliant Stadium wild.
AP Photo/Dave EinselReceiver Andre Johnson's post-score jump into the stands sent Reliant Stadium wild.The always-calm Johnson has been waiting for a playoff game since 2003, when he was the Texans' top pick in the franchise’s second season. He admitted to being antsy and overly anxious to make a play. After one failed pass attempt, he returned to the bench and slammed his helmet to the turf.
Late in the third quarter, though, he and Yates made a connection that sealed the game. Lined up on the left, Johnson put a double move on Adam Jones, who bit, slipped and moved laterally instead of back as he recovered.
Johnson was wide open, and Yates delivered a ball that hit him in stride for a 40-yard touchdown that gave the Texans a 24-10 lead.
In the end zone, he stopped and looked to be enjoying a contemplative moment to take it all in and consider all that had come in his career before the big moment.
But that wasn’t it at all.
“I’ve jumped in the stands a few times here, and I’ve been grabbed by the face mask and everything,” he said. “So I was kind of thinking about jumping, that’s what the pause was for.”
He jumped.
The play had about put Reliant Stadium into orbit, but Johnson made it safely back to earth.
The Houston Texans didn’t force need.
WattWisconsin’s rugged J.J. Watt will be an end in Wade Phillips’ 3-4. And end in Phillips’ 3-4 is the spot where the Texans were in the best shape before the draft started.
Mario Williams and Antonio Smith rated as quality players in the old 4-3 scheme. They may be better in the new front. And the Texans will now be a deep team at the spot while they still need to address outside linebacker, at least one safety spot and cornerback on the defensive side of the ball.
Watt should help a run defense that faces Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew twice a season and crash the backfield to make quarterbacks less-than-comfortable.
Ultimately he’ll get six shots a season to do his part to attack Peyton Manning and two guys drafted a bit ahead of Watt, Tennessee’s Jake Locker and Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert.
At 6-foot-5, 290-pounds Watt's virtually the same size as Williams.
Many of us thought the team coveted Aldon Smith, who would have been an outside linebacker. But Smith went seventh to San Francisco.
I see no panic in this pick.
I felt some from the Texans last year in the first round when I believe they wanted running back Ryan Mathews and didn’t recover well when he disappeared ahead of schedule. They wound up with cornerback Kareem Jackson.
Mario Williams and Antonio Smith rated as quality players in the old 4-3 scheme. They may be better in the new front. And the Texans will now be a deep team at the spot while they still need to address outside linebacker, at least one safety spot and cornerback on the defensive side of the ball.
Watt should help a run defense that faces Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew twice a season and crash the backfield to make quarterbacks less-than-comfortable.
Ultimately he’ll get six shots a season to do his part to attack Peyton Manning and two guys drafted a bit ahead of Watt, Tennessee’s Jake Locker and Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert.
At 6-foot-5, 290-pounds Watt's virtually the same size as Williams.
Many of us thought the team coveted Aldon Smith, who would have been an outside linebacker. But Smith went seventh to San Francisco.
I see no panic in this pick.
I felt some from the Texans last year in the first round when I believe they wanted running back Ryan Mathews and didn’t recover well when he disappeared ahead of schedule. They wound up with cornerback Kareem Jackson.
Our final pre-draft checkin with McShay
April, 28, 2011
4/28/11
4:21
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Todd McShay’s final mock draft has a big surprise early that could change the picture for the AFC South. He’s got Missouri defensive end/ linebacker Aldon Smith, who we’ve identified as a candidate for Houston and Jacksonville, going fifth to Arizona.
McShay goes seven rounds. I’ll only share three.
No. 8 -- Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
“Fairley is the best interior pass-rusher in the 2011 class, has tremendous overall upside and fills a major need.”
No. 39 -- Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
No. 77 -- Marcus Gilchrist, CB, Clemson
PK says: Virtually every time they’ve talked about quarterbacks, they’ve talked about the ability to rollout and move. Good offensive line or no, I don’t see them going with the least mobile of the top eight quarterbacks.
No. 11 -- Houston Texans
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
“There has been talk about the Texans possibly trading up to get Peterson and significantly upgrade their secondary, but in this dream scenario they stay put and get one of the four elite players in this class.”
No. 42 -- Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon
No. 73 -- John Moffitt, G, Wisconsin
PK says: A first-round dream scenario becomes possible thanks to the ascension of Smith and J.J. Watt. I hope they think they need an interior defensive linemen like Paea.
No. 16 -- Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
"Kerrigan is the kind of safe pick GM Gene Smith likes, a player who works hard and can contribute right away with solid skills and a high motor."
No. 49 -- Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
No. 80 -- Edmond Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
PK says: Gene Smith has attacked key positions in bunches, so he could nab a couple receivers. But no quarterback until the second of the team’s two fourth-round picks?
No. 22 -- Indianapolis Colts
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
"Carimi would provide more protection for QB Peyton Manning but, more importantly, would be a significant upgrade for a running game that struggled mightily in 2010."
No. 53 -- Clint Boling, G, Georgia
No. 87 -- Terrell McClain, DT, USF
PK says: It’s hard to imagine no skill position guys with the value picks, but it could be healthy for the roster.
McShay goes seven rounds. I’ll only share three.
No. 8 -- Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
“Fairley is the best interior pass-rusher in the 2011 class, has tremendous overall upside and fills a major need.”
No. 39 -- Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
No. 77 -- Marcus Gilchrist, CB, Clemson
PK says: Virtually every time they’ve talked about quarterbacks, they’ve talked about the ability to rollout and move. Good offensive line or no, I don’t see them going with the least mobile of the top eight quarterbacks.
No. 11 -- Houston Texans
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
“There has been talk about the Texans possibly trading up to get Peterson and significantly upgrade their secondary, but in this dream scenario they stay put and get one of the four elite players in this class.”
No. 42 -- Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon
No. 73 -- John Moffitt, G, Wisconsin
PK says: A first-round dream scenario becomes possible thanks to the ascension of Smith and J.J. Watt. I hope they think they need an interior defensive linemen like Paea.
No. 16 -- Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
"Kerrigan is the kind of safe pick GM Gene Smith likes, a player who works hard and can contribute right away with solid skills and a high motor."
No. 49 -- Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
No. 80 -- Edmond Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
PK says: Gene Smith has attacked key positions in bunches, so he could nab a couple receivers. But no quarterback until the second of the team’s two fourth-round picks?
No. 22 -- Indianapolis Colts
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
"Carimi would provide more protection for QB Peyton Manning but, more importantly, would be a significant upgrade for a running game that struggled mightily in 2010."
No. 53 -- Clint Boling, G, Georgia
No. 87 -- Terrell McClain, DT, USF
PK says: It’s hard to imagine no skill position guys with the value picks, but it could be healthy for the roster.
The AFC South in Mel's last go-round
April, 28, 2011
4/28/11
10:58
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Here’s the AFC South slice of Mel Kiper’s final mock draft.
No. 8 -- Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
“I'll stick with Fairley here. As I've said before, defensive line probably falls lower on the list of team needs behind the obvious question of who will be taking snaps, but it's not a minor need. And to get the most productive interior lineman in the college game last year, a player who was simply unblockable against really good competition, is a solid get for the Titans at No. 8 overall. Fairley gives you immediate help at a key position and he offers the value of a top-five pick. Disruptive versus both the run and the pass, he will help this defense now and the Titans can look for a linebacker later on. Why has Fairley fallen? For me, it's just mainly because of the fact that, while brilliant in that one season, he has less of a body of work. But he's by no means dropping on talent questions.”
My thoughts: If Blaine Gabbert falls to the spot, this blows up. Otherwise, if Fairley doesn’t go here, how far might he fall after the team where his Auburn defensive line coach now works passes on him?
No. 11 -- Houston Texans
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
“The Texans have needs all over the defensive side of the ball and I also think they're looking to move off this pick for the right package of picks. But if they can't get a deal done and stick at No. 11, Smith represents a ton of upside for a defense that really needs to add some pass-rushing help opposite the great Mario Williams. Again, a lot of the problems in the Houston secondary started up front. I think they should find the tools Wade Phillips needs to get to opposing quarterbacks in his scheme, and Smith will remind him of Ware, a real matchup headache to be used on the edge of that 3-4.”
My thoughts: Trading up isn’t a crazy idea if you consider the potential cost. But Smith can rush and that’s what they need. Don’t knock him because he’s not Von Miller or Robert Quinn.
No. 16 -- Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
“Earlier in the draft process, Kerrigan was saddled with the tweener tag, but that's not the worst problem in the world. Guys like DeMarcus Ware have heard the same and went in a similar range. What Kerrigan can do is line up on the edge and cause problems in opposing backfields. The Big Ten is loaded with talent at the tackle position and nobody could consistently stay in front of this guy. Jack Del Rio will love his relentlessness and motor, and quarterbacks will learn quickly to find out where he's lined up while going through reads. Jax needs the pass-rush, and Kerrigan can help.”
My thoughts: Kerrigan is such a popular pick for the Jaguars and Gene Smith made such an unpredictable call last year with Tyson Alualu at No. 10. So we might all miss by a lot here.
No. 22 -- Indianapolis Colts
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
“One more pick that stays at least relatively the same from previous mocks, I just really like the fit. The Colts have to improve on the offensive line and even while Peyton Manning is a maestro working out of the shotgun, they need to be able to do more both in the run game and in pass protection. I had another O-lineman here in previous mocks, but Solder also offers a smart, athletic tackle who has been consistently rated as a first-round option. Indy has brought in some quarterbacks to work out, but Solder is more of an immediate help to a team still thinking about titles.”
My thoughts: Is it finally a time where need and value and outside desire all line up for the Colts and we see a semi-predictable pick? I would think Peyton Manning and the running backs hope so.
No. 8 -- Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
“I'll stick with Fairley here. As I've said before, defensive line probably falls lower on the list of team needs behind the obvious question of who will be taking snaps, but it's not a minor need. And to get the most productive interior lineman in the college game last year, a player who was simply unblockable against really good competition, is a solid get for the Titans at No. 8 overall. Fairley gives you immediate help at a key position and he offers the value of a top-five pick. Disruptive versus both the run and the pass, he will help this defense now and the Titans can look for a linebacker later on. Why has Fairley fallen? For me, it's just mainly because of the fact that, while brilliant in that one season, he has less of a body of work. But he's by no means dropping on talent questions.”
My thoughts: If Blaine Gabbert falls to the spot, this blows up. Otherwise, if Fairley doesn’t go here, how far might he fall after the team where his Auburn defensive line coach now works passes on him?
No. 11 -- Houston Texans
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
“The Texans have needs all over the defensive side of the ball and I also think they're looking to move off this pick for the right package of picks. But if they can't get a deal done and stick at No. 11, Smith represents a ton of upside for a defense that really needs to add some pass-rushing help opposite the great Mario Williams. Again, a lot of the problems in the Houston secondary started up front. I think they should find the tools Wade Phillips needs to get to opposing quarterbacks in his scheme, and Smith will remind him of Ware, a real matchup headache to be used on the edge of that 3-4.”
My thoughts: Trading up isn’t a crazy idea if you consider the potential cost. But Smith can rush and that’s what they need. Don’t knock him because he’s not Von Miller or Robert Quinn.
No. 16 -- Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
“Earlier in the draft process, Kerrigan was saddled with the tweener tag, but that's not the worst problem in the world. Guys like DeMarcus Ware have heard the same and went in a similar range. What Kerrigan can do is line up on the edge and cause problems in opposing backfields. The Big Ten is loaded with talent at the tackle position and nobody could consistently stay in front of this guy. Jack Del Rio will love his relentlessness and motor, and quarterbacks will learn quickly to find out where he's lined up while going through reads. Jax needs the pass-rush, and Kerrigan can help.”
My thoughts: Kerrigan is such a popular pick for the Jaguars and Gene Smith made such an unpredictable call last year with Tyson Alualu at No. 10. So we might all miss by a lot here.
No. 22 -- Indianapolis Colts
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
“One more pick that stays at least relatively the same from previous mocks, I just really like the fit. The Colts have to improve on the offensive line and even while Peyton Manning is a maestro working out of the shotgun, they need to be able to do more both in the run game and in pass protection. I had another O-lineman here in previous mocks, but Solder also offers a smart, athletic tackle who has been consistently rated as a first-round option. Indy has brought in some quarterbacks to work out, but Solder is more of an immediate help to a team still thinking about titles.”
My thoughts: Is it finally a time where need and value and outside desire all line up for the Colts and we see a semi-predictable pick? I would think Peyton Manning and the running backs hope so.
RTC: Final words from the beat writers
April, 28, 2011
4/28/11
9:58
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Reading the coverage...
Houston Texans
The Texans sights are set on defense, says John McClain.
With Wade Phillips chiming in, the Texans are already better, says Richard Justice.
McClain has the Texans taking Aldon Smith.
Indianapolis Colts
Rick Reilly sat down with Archie, Peyton and Eli Manning.
The higher the Colts have drafted in the first round, the better Bill Polian has fared, says Mike Chappell. He’s determined to be patient with his picks.
What happens after the draft?
Here’s the whole Austin Collie story from Tim Layden that we posted about this week.
Has Manning’s search for an edge even encompassed tanking baseline concussion tests?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Everything but 32 draft picks is up in the air, says Tania Ganguli.
If you really like a guy, take him, says John Oehser.
Tennessee Titans
The big expectation is the Titans will take Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley at No. 8, says Jim Wyatt.
Ruston Webster’s got an important voice, says Wyatt.
The big question is when the run on quarterbacks starts, says Wyatt.
Houston Texans
The Texans sights are set on defense, says John McClain.
With Wade Phillips chiming in, the Texans are already better, says Richard Justice.
McClain has the Texans taking Aldon Smith.
Indianapolis Colts
Rick Reilly sat down with Archie, Peyton and Eli Manning.
The higher the Colts have drafted in the first round, the better Bill Polian has fared, says Mike Chappell. He’s determined to be patient with his picks.
What happens after the draft?
Here’s the whole Austin Collie story from Tim Layden that we posted about this week.
Has Manning’s search for an edge even encompassed tanking baseline concussion tests?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Everything but 32 draft picks is up in the air, says Tania Ganguli.
If you really like a guy, take him, says John Oehser.
Tennessee Titans
The big expectation is the Titans will take Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley at No. 8, says Jim Wyatt.
Ruston Webster’s got an important voice, says Wyatt.
The big question is when the run on quarterbacks starts, says Wyatt.
Who should the Jaguars draft at No. 16?
April, 27, 2011
4/27/11
12:55
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Who should the Jaguars take?
You’ve heard my draft thoughts and seen my mock draft pick for the Jaguars.
It’s time for me to hear yours.
It appears there are a couple positions of need that they won’t be able to address here -- there is no safety worthy of the spot and the top two cornerbacks are likely to be gone.
So here’s our Jaguars first-round draft poll.
I offer four guys I think will be available that could draw their interest. I take a cop out with the quarterback, because I do not know how they’ve stacked them but believe they could grab the third or fourth quarterback of the draft at No. 16 if they think he’s worth the pick.
If you’re on board for Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder or Colin Kaepernick, that slot is all inclusive.
Vote as you wish, but I am more curious about what you think they will do than what you think they should do.
It’s time for me to hear yours.
It appears there are a couple positions of need that they won’t be able to address here -- there is no safety worthy of the spot and the top two cornerbacks are likely to be gone.
So here’s our Jaguars first-round draft poll.
I offer four guys I think will be available that could draw their interest. I take a cop out with the quarterback, because I do not know how they’ve stacked them but believe they could grab the third or fourth quarterback of the draft at No. 16 if they think he’s worth the pick.
If you’re on board for Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder or Colin Kaepernick, that slot is all inclusive.
Vote as you wish, but I am more curious about what you think they will do than what you think they should do.
Who should the Texans draft at No. 11?
April, 27, 2011
4/27/11
10:48
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
You’ve heard my draft thoughts and seen my mock draft pick for the Texans.
It’s time for me to hear yours.
Three players who would be very nice fits for the Texans as they rebuild will be gone by the time they are on the clock, I think.
That’s why Texans A&M’s Von Miller, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson and North Carolina end/backer Robert Quinn are not in this poll. If you think Houston’s hellbent on getting one of them, there is a trade-up scenario for you.
I’ve also given you four players I think they will consider at No. 11 who I suspect will be available at No. 11.
Safety is a huge position of need, but no safeties are rated as first-round caliber. Texas cornerback Aaron Williams could convert, but this seems too early for him as well.
I'd ask you to please vote for what you think they’ll do as opposed to what you think they should do, but who are we kidding in terms of my influence on you?
It’s time for me to hear yours.
Three players who would be very nice fits for the Texans as they rebuild will be gone by the time they are on the clock, I think.
I’ve also given you four players I think they will consider at No. 11 who I suspect will be available at No. 11.
Safety is a huge position of need, but no safeties are rated as first-round caliber. Texas cornerback Aaron Williams could convert, but this seems too early for him as well.
I'd ask you to please vote for what you think they’ll do as opposed to what you think they should do, but who are we kidding in terms of my influence on you?
Do eight voices combining for a mock draft fare any better than those by one guy?
Who knows?
I think my blog network brethren would say the same thing I do: Most of my thinking in our combined mock draft came from an educated connecting of the dots that combines what I know about my teams’ draft philosophies, what I know of teams' needs, who’s available in this context, what I’ve been told, what my gut says and what I've been calling for.
So Kevin Seifert over at the NFC North isn’t saying Andy Dalton is the 12th-best player in the draft. He’s reiterating what he’s been writing about how quarterbacks have to have a higher value and how Minnesota has to have one.
Three of my four picks for the AFC South line up with what I’d call the conventional thinking at this point. Maybe I outsmart myself with the Colts, but I’ll explain myself in a second.
Here’s a bit more than I was able to offer in my comments in the mock, which you’ll find here.
Titans at No. 8 – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
I think the defensive rebuild has to go inside-out. I think the character concerns on Fairley are overblown or are something that line coach Tracy Rocker, who worked with him at Auburn, and defensive coordinator Jerry Gray can handle. I think that the Titans can find ways to turn him into a consistently productive player. But maybe this match is too easy. The alternatives would be a defensive end, though Da'Quan Bowers has dropped for them because of his knee, or quarterback if they choose to be bold.
Texans at No. 11 – Aldon Smith, DE-OLB, Missouri
Somehow, I sense that Smith has become unpopular with a good share of Texans fans. His name certainly lacks the juice of Von Miller or Robert Quinn. But plenty of teams would like to get their hands on Smith, who’s an intriguing option as an outside linebacker in Houston’s new 3-4 defensive front. He’s got intriguing size at 6-foot-4, 263 pounds. The best defensive player in this scenario may be Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt, but rushing the passer is not what he does best and that’s what the Texans need most.
Jaguars at No. 16 – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Too easy a fit? Perhaps. But when GM Gene Smith said last week that there are a lot of guys who, like Kerrigan, fit into the formula he likes, there is no doubting that Kerrigan does. Still, who among us saw Smith taking Tyson Alualu at No. 10 last season? We could see another surprise. Smith loaded up on defensive linemen last year. If he takes Kerrigan or another end now, it should be the last defensive linemen for a while, and he should move on to secondary and receiver help. Cameron Jordan, Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward are all heavier. But with a rugged interior, the Jaguars need speed more than size.
Colts at No. 22 – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Everyone and everything says offensive line. And I could have taken Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi or Derek Sherrod here. I just think the odds of Bill Polian doing what we all expect are low. While there will be one and should be more than one offensive linemen for Indianapolis in this draft, Polian won’t let the need steer him. Two years ago we all had the Colts liking Peria Jerry, but he went to Atlanta three spots before Indy took Donald Brown. I hear Liuget is a better fit that Jerry would have been. More interior push helps Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and Liuget would help the run defense.
Who knows?
I think my blog network brethren would say the same thing I do: Most of my thinking in our combined mock draft came from an educated connecting of the dots that combines what I know about my teams’ draft philosophies, what I know of teams' needs, who’s available in this context, what I’ve been told, what my gut says and what I've been calling for.
So Kevin Seifert over at the NFC North isn’t saying Andy Dalton is the 12th-best player in the draft. He’s reiterating what he’s been writing about how quarterbacks have to have a higher value and how Minnesota has to have one.
Three of my four picks for the AFC South line up with what I’d call the conventional thinking at this point. Maybe I outsmart myself with the Colts, but I’ll explain myself in a second.
Here’s a bit more than I was able to offer in my comments in the mock, which you’ll find here.
Titans at No. 8 – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
I think the defensive rebuild has to go inside-out. I think the character concerns on Fairley are overblown or are something that line coach Tracy Rocker, who worked with him at Auburn, and defensive coordinator Jerry Gray can handle. I think that the Titans can find ways to turn him into a consistently productive player. But maybe this match is too easy. The alternatives would be a defensive end, though Da'Quan Bowers has dropped for them because of his knee, or quarterback if they choose to be bold.
Texans at No. 11 – Aldon Smith, DE-OLB, Missouri
Somehow, I sense that Smith has become unpopular with a good share of Texans fans. His name certainly lacks the juice of Von Miller or Robert Quinn. But plenty of teams would like to get their hands on Smith, who’s an intriguing option as an outside linebacker in Houston’s new 3-4 defensive front. He’s got intriguing size at 6-foot-4, 263 pounds. The best defensive player in this scenario may be Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt, but rushing the passer is not what he does best and that’s what the Texans need most.
Jaguars at No. 16 – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Too easy a fit? Perhaps. But when GM Gene Smith said last week that there are a lot of guys who, like Kerrigan, fit into the formula he likes, there is no doubting that Kerrigan does. Still, who among us saw Smith taking Tyson Alualu at No. 10 last season? We could see another surprise. Smith loaded up on defensive linemen last year. If he takes Kerrigan or another end now, it should be the last defensive linemen for a while, and he should move on to secondary and receiver help. Cameron Jordan, Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward are all heavier. But with a rugged interior, the Jaguars need speed more than size.
Colts at No. 22 – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Everyone and everything says offensive line. And I could have taken Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi or Derek Sherrod here. I just think the odds of Bill Polian doing what we all expect are low. While there will be one and should be more than one offensive linemen for Indianapolis in this draft, Polian won’t let the need steer him. Two years ago we all had the Colts liking Peria Jerry, but he went to Atlanta three spots before Indy took Donald Brown. I hear Liuget is a better fit that Jerry would have been. More interior push helps Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and Liuget would help the run defense.
We know you’ve been mocked and mocked. We all give you divisional takes on Todd McShay and Mel Kiper. We often link to other mocks. Maybe you’re to your breaking point. Maybe you need one more.
We spent three days last week emailing back and forth and compiling a mock put together by eight divisional bloggers. John Clayton stood in for the NFC East.
Perhaps we add some different insight to the speculation. Perhaps we echoed prevailing wisdom. (I can raise my hand on that, as you will see.)
At any rate, we know we’re mostly wrong, and we’re eager to write names in draft slots in ink instead of pencil when things kick off Thursday evening. Here’s hoping this helps tide you over.
We spent three days last week emailing back and forth and compiling a mock put together by eight divisional bloggers. John Clayton stood in for the NFC East.
Perhaps we add some different insight to the speculation. Perhaps we echoed prevailing wisdom. (I can raise my hand on that, as you will see.)
At any rate, we know we’re mostly wrong, and we’re eager to write names in draft slots in ink instead of pencil when things kick off Thursday evening. Here’s hoping this helps tide you over.
Analysis: The Panthers are aware of upside and downside with Newton. But a team that has to compete in a division with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman for the foreseeable future realizes it has to get a franchise quarterback to have a chance in the NFC South. Time to take the big leap on Newton. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The Broncos are thrilled to see Carolina go with a quarterback, allowing them to pick from the entire defensive board. Denver goes with Dareus because he's a perfect fit and he's ready to instantly impact the NFL's worst defense. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Bills have a great opportunity to land a potential franchise quarterback and don't plan on drafting in this territory again. GM Buddy Nix repeatedly has said the presence of Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter means it's the perfect time to draft a quarterback and let him grow. (Tim Graham)
Analysis: Drafting a receiver this high is risky, especially when quarterback Carson Palmer is talking retirement. So there's nothing wrong with going safe and taking arguably the best player in this draft. (James Walker)
Analysis: It's tough to second-guess the Cardinals under this scenario with the top two quarterbacks off the board. New defensive coordinator Ray Horton needs outside pass-rush help and fresh legs at linebacker. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: I think the Browns should go defense with Robert Quinn and Nick Fairley still available. But our AFC North readers voted for Green when making our mock draft board. He gives quarterback Colt McCoy a legit No. 1 receiver. (James Walker)
Analysis: The 49ers have needs in the secondary, too, so Prince Amukamara could be an option. Quinn was suspended for last season and previously returned from surgery to relieve pressure associated with a benign brain tumor. The question on Quinn is whether the 49ers' medical people would sign off on him. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: A DT with Fairley's power and feet can impact the entire defense, and the Titans need a big transformation on that side of the ball. Still, the gaping hole at quarterback means they may look to maneuver. If they love Jake Locker, it's even possible they'd take him here. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Jerry Jones may be tempted to trade down, but the revamping of the offensive line is long overdue. Smith has the best upside of any tackle in the draft. (John Clayton)
Analysis: Even though Mike Shanahan will be looking to improve his defense with the first pick, it's going to be hard to pass on a fast wide receiver and the second-best non-quarterback offensive player available in the draft. (John Clayton)
Analysis: The Texans are out of range for Miller and Quinn, who'd be huge additions. Trading down to a team that wants a quarterback here and landing an OLB later in the first would be ideal. I think they address the front before the secondary, and Smith can rush from the outside, helping the whole D. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: A team desperate for a quarterback can't wait for one to fall to them in the second round. Without a third-round pick, trade-up options are limited. Sometimes you just have to jump. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: A speedy playmaker in the back end would enhance the Lions' defensive rebuild. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: With the top two receivers gone, the Rams get arguably the highest-rated defensive lineman available at this point. Watt has the versatility to play more than one position. He would give Steve Spagnuolo welcome depth on the line, upgrading and diversifying the rotation instantly. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Dolphins' interior line has been chaotic for the past three years, and Pouncey is a versatile player who can line up at center or guard. If the Dolphins truly are sold on Ryan Mallett, they might make a splash by taking him here because they don't have a second-round pick to use on a quarterback. (Tim Graham)
Analysis: GM Gene Smith made it clear recently that Kerrigan is hardly the only "Gene Smith guy" who could be available here. But Kerrigan's résumé, college captaincy and work ethic make him a fit considering an edge pass-rusher should complete the defensive line reconstruction. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: If he's still on the board here, the Patriots likely won't be deterred by Bowers' knee injury. Bill Belichick always is searching for value and isn't afraid to draft injured players and give them time to heal. The Patriots drafted Brandon Tate in the third round in 2009 even though he was healing from reconstructive knee surgery. (Tim Graham)
Analysis: The Chargers are thrilled the Cal pass-rusher is on the board. The intense, high-character Jordan is one of the team's top-rated pass-rushers. He should give this team an instant spark. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Like the Cowboys, the Giants let their offensive line get too old. Even though Mike Pouncey would have been tempting to take at this spot if he were available, the Giants need a tackle more than they do a guard. (John Clayton)
Analysis: The Buccaneers have a huge need for a pass-rusher. Houston's the best on the board. Time for the Stylez G. White (4.5 sacks last season) era to end. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The Chiefs are relieved Tampa Bay didn't take Wilkerson. He is a versatile player who will fit in with this defensive line and should help this young defense continue to improve. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Yes, there are good offensive line options here and Bill Polian could pounce on Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi. But the Colts are rarely in range of a top interior defensive lineman and Liuget's penetration means he helps the rush and the run defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The Eagles have spent a lot of time investigating Smith's character and determined he's too talented to let pass. The Eagles need cornerback help, but if Smith is gone, they will look at a right tackle or right guard. (John Clayton)
Analysis: The Saints don't need an immediate star. But he can be the heir apparent to Will Smith and contribute in a defensive end rotation for a year or two before becoming the main piece of this defensive line. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The players taken 22nd through 24th could appeal as well. Some locals will groan if the Seahawks pass up Jake Locker, but Ingram represents the value pick. Seattle wants to trade down. GM John Schneider was with Seattle in 2000 when the team drafted another Alabama back, Shaun Alexander, in the first round. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Ravens love drafting monsters on their front seven, and Heyward would be a good value at No. 26. He has an NFL pedigree and adds another threat to get to the quarterback. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Falcons would really love to get a pass-rushing defensive end, but the board is pretty empty. They can fill that need whenever free agency starts. For now, they'll switch things up and look for an "explosive" player on offense. Baldwin is a huge receiver and could be the perfect complement to Roddy White. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Another value pick for the Patriots if Solder still is on the board. The Patriots must stabilize their offensive line. Left tackle Matt Light went to the Pro Bowl as an alternate last season but is a free agent and will turn 33 in June. (Tim Graham)
Analysis: Looking to trade down, the Bears are stunned to find one of the draft's top tackles still available. Carimi is an immediate starter. Thanks, fellow bloggers. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Jets' primary needs are to improve their pass rush and along the defensive line. Ayers can rush the passer and help in coverage. That kind of versatility makes it easier for Rex Ryan to deploy his tricky, aggressive defensive tactics. (Tim Graham)
Analysis: Steelers catch a break with both Williams and Miami cornerback Brandon Harris still on the board. Williams' versatility and physicality give him a slight edge, and he fills the team's biggest need at corner. (James Walker)
Analysis: With Ayers off the board, the Packers continue their succession plan at offensive tackle. It's a luxury afforded to the Super Bowl champions. (Kevin Seifert)
Reading the coverage: A plan for Houston
April, 25, 2011
4/25/11
10:16
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Texas cornerback Aaron Williams might qualify as the best safety in a terrible safety draft, says Jeffrey Martin. Every team in the AFC South can use a safety.
Houston Texans
The Texans need to trade up for Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller or LSU corner Patrick Peterson, says Jerome Solomon.
Aldon Smith is still the pick at 11 in John McClain’s newest mock.
A blueprint for the Texans’ success from Lance Zierlein. Excellent stuff in here. The only piece I disagree with is moving Glover Quin to safety. I think it’s too early to make that decision and the team can still find a couple of quality safeties, particularly if the team is willing to shop in free agency when it arrives.
Is Amobi Okoye conceding he can’t play nose in the 3-4? Alan Burge examines.
Letting Vonta Leach leave might not be all bad, says Rivers McCown. I’m not so sure Leach will get a big deal elsewhere.
Indianapolis Colts
Best available player or an offensive lineman? That’s the question for the Colts, says Mike Chappell.
Chappell on the Colts and quarterback possibilities in the draft.
The Colts are looking through a broader lens for this draft, writes Chappell.
Blair White is working to build chemistry with Peyton Manning, says Joe Rexrode. Hat tip to Nate Dunlevy.)
Linebacker options for the Colts from Brett Mock.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are in flux at linebacker, says Tania Ganguli.
Pass defense is a big issue, says Vito Stellino.
Tennessee Titans
Late-round finds are great, but first-round choices can make or break a team, says John Glennon.
Would the Titans, should the Titans, take Cam Newton if he slides, asks Jim Wyatt.
Tracy Rocker gives the Titans a big resource on Nick Fairley, says Jim Wyatt.
Fairley says his sleep apnea is under control, says Glennon.
Who might want to trade up to No. 8?
Houston Texans
The Texans need to trade up for Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller or LSU corner Patrick Peterson, says Jerome Solomon.
Aldon Smith is still the pick at 11 in John McClain’s newest mock.
A blueprint for the Texans’ success from Lance Zierlein. Excellent stuff in here. The only piece I disagree with is moving Glover Quin to safety. I think it’s too early to make that decision and the team can still find a couple of quality safeties, particularly if the team is willing to shop in free agency when it arrives.
Is Amobi Okoye conceding he can’t play nose in the 3-4? Alan Burge examines.
Letting Vonta Leach leave might not be all bad, says Rivers McCown. I’m not so sure Leach will get a big deal elsewhere.
Indianapolis Colts
Best available player or an offensive lineman? That’s the question for the Colts, says Mike Chappell.
Chappell on the Colts and quarterback possibilities in the draft.
The Colts are looking through a broader lens for this draft, writes Chappell.
Blair White is working to build chemistry with Peyton Manning, says Joe Rexrode. Hat tip to Nate Dunlevy.)
Linebacker options for the Colts from Brett Mock.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are in flux at linebacker, says Tania Ganguli.
Pass defense is a big issue, says Vito Stellino.
Tennessee Titans
Late-round finds are great, but first-round choices can make or break a team, says John Glennon.
Would the Titans, should the Titans, take Cam Newton if he slides, asks Jim Wyatt.
Tracy Rocker gives the Titans a big resource on Nick Fairley, says Jim Wyatt.
Fairley says his sleep apnea is under control, says Glennon.
Who might want to trade up to No. 8?
» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Dream scenario/Plan B.
Houston Texans
Dream scenario: A run on quarterbacks means the team has more to choose from on defense, and while Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller is too much to hope for, North Carolina’s Robert Quinn is there for them to snatch up at No. 11. Quinn would be inserted as a starting outside linebacker in the new 3-4 scheme run by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
Plan B: A trade down with someone looking to come up for a quarterback would be nice, as the Texans could use extra picks to replenish the defense. In such a scenario, a spot in the middle or high 20s could be used on an outside linebacker like Georgia’s Justin Houston, UCLA’s Akeem Ayers or Arizona’s Brooks Reed. But if they remain at No. 11, Missouri’s Aldon Smith is a guy who could help them.
Indianapolis Colts
Dream scenario: They may not value an offensive tackle with the 22nd pick, but it seems like it’s time that they should. Ideally, they’d have their choice between Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo and Colorado’s Nate Solder. Carimi, who got great experience at Wisconsin, gets the nod from a team that is in the middle of Big Ten country.
Plan B: Who’s the value guy who’s slipped? That’s the man the Colts are most likely to pounce on, but I can’t predict who it’ll be. A quality defensive tackle can do a lot for the defense, and if Illinois’ Corey Liuget is still available, he could be a guy the Colts like. He’s drawn comparisons to Anthony McFarland, and while McFarland didn’t work out well, the qualities he had that were appealing are still appealing.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dream scenario: Even for a dream, the idea of a safety worthy of the 16th overall pick is far-fetched. So we’ll move past that. If they love a quarterback, they could have some appealing options. Otherwise, I see GM Gene Smith sticking with his foundation-building plan, and that would mean a defensive end. If they want bigger, it’s Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt. If they want faster, it’s Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan. Aldon Smith would also be an option. Picking among all three would be a great spot.
Plan B: We’ll stick with the foundation plan and turn to the interior offensive line. Florida’s Mike Pouncey could be a rock at guard or center (if he can learn to snap) for a long time and looks to be the sort of fixture the Jaguars would love to stock the roster with.
Tennessee Titans
Dream scenario: Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert slips to No. 8 while a team or two jump up to grab non-quarterbacks in the top seven. The Titans would have their quarterback of the future, with offensive coordinator Chris Palmer set to tutor Gabbert as soon as the lockout ends, while the pressure to get a veteran who can hold down the fort eases a bit since the Titans get one of the top rookies.
Plan B: With the top two quarterbacks gone, the Titans address defense and hope Auburn tackle Nick Fairley can be an impact guy whose interior play can have a positive bearing on the other 10 defenders on the field with him.
Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Dream scenario/Plan B.
Houston Texans
Dream scenario: A run on quarterbacks means the team has more to choose from on defense, and while Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller is too much to hope for, North Carolina’s Robert Quinn is there for them to snatch up at No. 11. Quinn would be inserted as a starting outside linebacker in the new 3-4 scheme run by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
Plan B: A trade down with someone looking to come up for a quarterback would be nice, as the Texans could use extra picks to replenish the defense. In such a scenario, a spot in the middle or high 20s could be used on an outside linebacker like Georgia’s Justin Houston, UCLA’s Akeem Ayers or Arizona’s Brooks Reed. But if they remain at No. 11, Missouri’s Aldon Smith is a guy who could help them.
Indianapolis Colts
Dream scenario: They may not value an offensive tackle with the 22nd pick, but it seems like it’s time that they should. Ideally, they’d have their choice between Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo and Colorado’s Nate Solder. Carimi, who got great experience at Wisconsin, gets the nod from a team that is in the middle of Big Ten country.
Plan B: Who’s the value guy who’s slipped? That’s the man the Colts are most likely to pounce on, but I can’t predict who it’ll be. A quality defensive tackle can do a lot for the defense, and if Illinois’ Corey Liuget is still available, he could be a guy the Colts like. He’s drawn comparisons to Anthony McFarland, and while McFarland didn’t work out well, the qualities he had that were appealing are still appealing.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dream scenario: Even for a dream, the idea of a safety worthy of the 16th overall pick is far-fetched. So we’ll move past that. If they love a quarterback, they could have some appealing options. Otherwise, I see GM Gene Smith sticking with his foundation-building plan, and that would mean a defensive end. If they want bigger, it’s Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt. If they want faster, it’s Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan. Aldon Smith would also be an option. Picking among all three would be a great spot.
Plan B: We’ll stick with the foundation plan and turn to the interior offensive line. Florida’s Mike Pouncey could be a rock at guard or center (if he can learn to snap) for a long time and looks to be the sort of fixture the Jaguars would love to stock the roster with.
Tennessee Titans
Dream scenario: Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert slips to No. 8 while a team or two jump up to grab non-quarterbacks in the top seven. The Titans would have their quarterback of the future, with offensive coordinator Chris Palmer set to tutor Gabbert as soon as the lockout ends, while the pressure to get a veteran who can hold down the fort eases a bit since the Titans get one of the top rookies.
Plan B: With the top two quarterbacks gone, the Titans address defense and hope Auburn tackle Nick Fairley can be an impact guy whose interior play can have a positive bearing on the other 10 defenders on the field with him.
While Todd McShay makes an official pick in his newest mock 
, he also provides a three-for-one, with two alternate scenarios for each team.
Here’s what he’s got the AFC South doing.
Tennessee Titans, No. 8
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Scenario 1: Fairley makes the most sense at this point and he has tremendous upside. He's worth the pick from a talent standpoint, but there are legitimate questions about his football character and if the Titans pass, that will be the reason.
Scenario 2: [Prince] Amukamara is worth the pick and would fill one of the Titans' top five needs.
Scenario 3: If [Julio] Jones were to fall this far, Tennessee would consider taking him given Kenny Britt's recent off-field issues, or if he were available it might provide an opportunity to trade back with a team like the St. Louis Rams and perhaps address need at quarterback with someone like Washington's Jake Locker.
My thoughts: I’m on board with Fairley if things unfold as expected with the top seven players. If Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson somehow slip, I think they’d pounce. Among players likely available, I think Locker is second-most likely to Fairley, with Jones next.
Houston Texans, No. 11
Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
Scenario 1: Taking Quinn is the best-case scenario outside of [Von] Miller somehow falling this far. Quinn would be a nice complement to fellow OLB Connor Barwin, one of the best ILB tandems in the league in DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing, and difference-maker Mario Williams up front.
Scenario 2: If Quinn is gone, then a 5-technique like [J.J.] Watt or California's Cameron Jordan would be the pick.
Scenario 3: The Texans could be forced to weigh value against philosophy here if the players above are gone. Amukamara would be the value pick, but I tend to think they would lean toward Missouri DE Aldon Smith because new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is determined to upgrade the front seven.
My thoughts: Quinn would feel like a home run. If he’s gone, I feel like one of those more rugged ends who could play in a 3-4 would be the value, though Smith would fill the more the outright need. Amukamara would surprise me.
Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 16
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Scenario 1: General manager Gene Smith likes safe, high-motor, strong-character picks who can contribute right away, and Kerrigan fits that mold perfectly.
Scenario 2: If the Jaguars were to take a chance with this pick, it could be on Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers and his knee issues.
Scenario 3: Their three other top needs are reaches here, so reaching for Locker or moving back for another quarterback might be a possibility.
My thoughts: Kerrigan is an easy match to make, but he’s not the only high-motor, hard-worked Smith is going to have a crack at here. They already have a DE with knee questions in Aaron Kampman, and I suspect they’d fear Bowers. Watt or Smith are possibilities.
Indianapolis, No. 22
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Scenario 1: Solder is a no-brainer. The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league last year, but that was mostly due to QB Peyton Manning getting the ball out quickly. But Solder has the athleticism to help in protection when he's ready to step into the lineup. More importantly, he's already a monster at 6-foot-8 and 319 pounds and would help upgrade a running game that finished 29th in the league (92.7 yards per game) last season.
Scenario 2: Liuget is the higher-ranked prospect and is a strong possibility as the kind of quick, penetrating defensive lineman the Colts like.
Scenario 3: If the top four offensive tackles are off the board, Indianapolis could reach for Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod.
My thoughts: As soon as a player or a position is deemed a no brainer for the Colts, I get scared. One of the top four offensive tackles sure looks like a match. I don’t see them looking to Sherrod as he seems a bit like Tony Ugoh. I could certainly see Liuget. Is there a receiver value here?
, he also provides a three-for-one, with two alternate scenarios for each team.
Here’s what he’s got the AFC South doing.
Tennessee Titans, No. 8
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Scenario 1: Fairley makes the most sense at this point and he has tremendous upside. He's worth the pick from a talent standpoint, but there are legitimate questions about his football character and if the Titans pass, that will be the reason.
Scenario 2: [Prince] Amukamara is worth the pick and would fill one of the Titans' top five needs.
Scenario 3: If [Julio] Jones were to fall this far, Tennessee would consider taking him given Kenny Britt's recent off-field issues, or if he were available it might provide an opportunity to trade back with a team like the St. Louis Rams and perhaps address need at quarterback with someone like Washington's Jake Locker.
My thoughts: I’m on board with Fairley if things unfold as expected with the top seven players. If Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson somehow slip, I think they’d pounce. Among players likely available, I think Locker is second-most likely to Fairley, with Jones next.
Houston Texans, No. 11
Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
Scenario 1: Taking Quinn is the best-case scenario outside of [Von] Miller somehow falling this far. Quinn would be a nice complement to fellow OLB Connor Barwin, one of the best ILB tandems in the league in DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing, and difference-maker Mario Williams up front.
Scenario 2: If Quinn is gone, then a 5-technique like [J.J.] Watt or California's Cameron Jordan would be the pick.
Scenario 3: The Texans could be forced to weigh value against philosophy here if the players above are gone. Amukamara would be the value pick, but I tend to think they would lean toward Missouri DE Aldon Smith because new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is determined to upgrade the front seven.
My thoughts: Quinn would feel like a home run. If he’s gone, I feel like one of those more rugged ends who could play in a 3-4 would be the value, though Smith would fill the more the outright need. Amukamara would surprise me.
Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 16
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Scenario 1: General manager Gene Smith likes safe, high-motor, strong-character picks who can contribute right away, and Kerrigan fits that mold perfectly.
Scenario 2: If the Jaguars were to take a chance with this pick, it could be on Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers and his knee issues.
Scenario 3: Their three other top needs are reaches here, so reaching for Locker or moving back for another quarterback might be a possibility.
My thoughts: Kerrigan is an easy match to make, but he’s not the only high-motor, hard-worked Smith is going to have a crack at here. They already have a DE with knee questions in Aaron Kampman, and I suspect they’d fear Bowers. Watt or Smith are possibilities.
Indianapolis, No. 22
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Scenario 1: Solder is a no-brainer. The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league last year, but that was mostly due to QB Peyton Manning getting the ball out quickly. But Solder has the athleticism to help in protection when he's ready to step into the lineup. More importantly, he's already a monster at 6-foot-8 and 319 pounds and would help upgrade a running game that finished 29th in the league (92.7 yards per game) last season.
Scenario 2: Liuget is the higher-ranked prospect and is a strong possibility as the kind of quick, penetrating defensive lineman the Colts like.
Scenario 3: If the top four offensive tackles are off the board, Indianapolis could reach for Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod.
My thoughts: As soon as a player or a position is deemed a no brainer for the Colts, I get scared. One of the top four offensive tackles sure looks like a match. I don’t see them looking to Sherrod as he seems a bit like Tony Ugoh. I could certainly see Liuget. Is there a receiver value here?
Reading the coverage ...
Peter King says the Texans are in love with Patrick Peterson and has details of Jeff Fisher’s upcoming climb.
An autographed “Luv Ya Blue” Oilers helmet sold for $2 million at a charity auction.
The second round of mediation is mostly for show, says Mike Freeman.
Houston Texans
The directions the Texans can go at No. 11, from John McClain.
Taking a quarterback high is risky business, says McClain.
Greg Cosell assesses Aldon Smith, via Alan Burge.
Indianapolis Colts
The NFL is prepared to move the date of Indianapolis’ Super Bowl if needed.
Bill Polian’s being honored by Marian University.
Some possibilities at center in the draft, from Brett Mock.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even with more blackouts it would be too early to worry about the Jaguars leaving, says Vito Stellino.
Are prospects rising or falling or are reporters just catching up to values? John Oehser discusses.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans' draft approach can’t help but change because of the lockout, says John Glennon.
Pondering Ryan Mallett with Jim Wyatt.
David Boclair wonders about how Mike Munchak will deal with Kenny Britt.
Peter King says the Texans are in love with Patrick Peterson and has details of Jeff Fisher’s upcoming climb.
An autographed “Luv Ya Blue” Oilers helmet sold for $2 million at a charity auction.
The second round of mediation is mostly for show, says Mike Freeman.
Houston Texans
The directions the Texans can go at No. 11, from John McClain.
Taking a quarterback high is risky business, says McClain.
Greg Cosell assesses Aldon Smith, via Alan Burge.
Indianapolis Colts
The NFL is prepared to move the date of Indianapolis’ Super Bowl if needed.
Bill Polian’s being honored by Marian University.
Some possibilities at center in the draft, from Brett Mock.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even with more blackouts it would be too early to worry about the Jaguars leaving, says Vito Stellino.
Are prospects rising or falling or are reporters just catching up to values? John Oehser discusses.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans' draft approach can’t help but change because of the lockout, says John Glennon.
Pondering Ryan Mallett with Jim Wyatt.
David Boclair wonders about how Mike Munchak will deal with Kenny Britt.
RTC: Is Aldon Smith the Texans best fit?
April, 15, 2011
4/15/11
11:00
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Reading the coverage…
Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans endowed a $300,000 scholarship at Alabama.
Matt Leinart is looking for an opportunity.
Aldon Smith is Lance Zierlein’s odds on favorite to be the Texans’ pick at No. 11.
Cornerback options for the Texans, via Nick Scurfield.
Indianapolis Colts
Peyton Manning ranks fourth in jersey sales.
A look at needs from Sports Xchange.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Marcedes Lewis plans on working out in Los Angeles until things are settled and he gets a new deal, says Tania Ganguli.
Success was fragile for the 1999 Jaguars, says John Oehser.
Tennessee Titans
Ruston Webster thinks four or five quarterbacks could be drafted in the first round if needy teams trade into the back end, says John Glennon.
Vince Young is Todd McShay’s example of the difficulty of evaluating quarterbacks, says Glennon.
Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans endowed a $300,000 scholarship at Alabama.
Matt Leinart is looking for an opportunity.
Aldon Smith is Lance Zierlein’s odds on favorite to be the Texans’ pick at No. 11.
Cornerback options for the Texans, via Nick Scurfield.
Indianapolis Colts
Peyton Manning ranks fourth in jersey sales.
A look at needs from Sports Xchange.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Marcedes Lewis plans on working out in Los Angeles until things are settled and he gets a new deal, says Tania Ganguli.
Success was fragile for the 1999 Jaguars, says John Oehser.
Tennessee Titans
Ruston Webster thinks four or five quarterbacks could be drafted in the first round if needy teams trade into the back end, says John Glennon.
Vince Young is Todd McShay’s example of the difficulty of evaluating quarterbacks, says Glennon.
Reading the coverage …
Late in this podcast of “The Draft Zone” with Jonathan Hutton from Nashville, I discuss needs around the AFC South.
Houston Texans
Connor Barwin and Owen Daniels updates from Stephanie Stradley.
It’s a new direction for the Texans' defense as the draft approaches, says Nick Scurfield.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are sticking to offseason conditioning plans, says Mike Chappell.
Dallas Clark’s episode of “Criminal Minds” aired Wednesday night.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew doesn’t think draftees should skip the ceremony, says Tania Ganguli.
The Jaguars have a core group of guys they can win with according to defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, says John Oehser. Note Terry McDonough’s thoughts on quarterbacks in this draft.
Why is Iowa defensive end Ryan Kerrigan regarded as safer than Missouri end Aldon Smith? Alfie Crow rants.
Tennessee Titans
Jim Wyatt examines whether Kenny Britt’s arrest could affect the Titans’ draft plans. I say no, and on NFL Network last night Mike Munchak said he was disappointed in the development but while the Titans could take a wide receiver during the draft it would not be because of what's going on with Britt.
Late in this podcast of “The Draft Zone” with Jonathan Hutton from Nashville, I discuss needs around the AFC South.
Houston Texans
Connor Barwin and Owen Daniels updates from Stephanie Stradley.
It’s a new direction for the Texans' defense as the draft approaches, says Nick Scurfield.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are sticking to offseason conditioning plans, says Mike Chappell.
Dallas Clark’s episode of “Criminal Minds” aired Wednesday night.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew doesn’t think draftees should skip the ceremony, says Tania Ganguli.
The Jaguars have a core group of guys they can win with according to defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, says John Oehser. Note Terry McDonough’s thoughts on quarterbacks in this draft.
Why is Iowa defensive end Ryan Kerrigan regarded as safer than Missouri end Aldon Smith? Alfie Crow rants.
Tennessee Titans
Jim Wyatt examines whether Kenny Britt’s arrest could affect the Titans’ draft plans. I say no, and on NFL Network last night Mike Munchak said he was disappointed in the development but while the Titans could take a wide receiver during the draft it would not be because of what's going on with Britt.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
