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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Texans in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): Quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson return from injuries and have exemplary seasons, providing big plays that sync up beautifully with another excellent campaign by running back Arian Foster. New starters at right guard and right tackle take over and play well, and the offensive line continues to be a team strength, providing time for Schaub and room for Foster. They show it’s about the scheme and players with the traits that fit it, not necessarily about the specific people in the lineup.

In conjunction with the excellent offense, Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense picks up where it left off, swarming opposing quarterbacks and finding big plays that tamp down offenses just about every week.

This talented, deep squad does not get caught up in success and shows it can stand toe-to-toe with teams like the Packers and Patriots. In so doing, the Texans give Houston something it has never had before: a Super Bowl team.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Schaub either can’t stay healthy or can’t return to form and he or T.J. Yates winds up throwing more to rookie receivers who struggle than to Johnson, who battles another round of leg injuries. The right side of the offensive line proves a huge issue as the team loses any hint of the cohesion that was such a key in 2011. That means trouble for Foster as well, and he doesn’t break through to the second level nearly as often as we’ve become accustomed to.

Defensively, the Texans can’t generate the kind of consistent pass rush they mounted last season as offenses do a better job countering than they did in Phillips’ first season heading up the 3-4. The secondary is asked to hold up too long and an injury to Johnathan Joseph leaves them susceptible at cornerback, the one spot that they lack depth. Opposing quarterbacks find too many big plays against them.

The return games are worse, not better, with Jacoby Jones now playing in Baltimore.

A nearly unanimous pick to win the AFC South before the season, the Texans fail to make the playoffs.

Andre Johnson's bad 2011 was even worse than we thought.

Johnson missed nine games because of two different hamstring injuries.

He told Houston media today he also hurt his left knee Nov. 27 in a win at Jacksonville. That injury required a recent scope that he pledged was not a big deal.

"Nothing to panic about," Johnson said per Mark Berman of Fox in Houston. "I had it two weeks ago…

"I hyperextended my (left) knee. It swoll up. Got the swelling to calm down. I came back during offseason workouts, it swoll up again. We felt like the best thing to do was get it scoped, get it fixed…"

"I'm two weeks out from having a knee scope. I wasn't in any pain before I had it. It just kept holding fluid on it. I'm not in any pain now. My knee feels better, the swelling has pretty much gone down. Just keep doing rehab and (I'll) be ready for training camp.

"This is my tenth season. I've been through OTAs several times. I don't really feel like I'm missing anything right now."

He’s not missing anything right now. And quarterback Matt Schaub, recovering from a serious foot injury, isn’t on the field either.

In a broader sense, though, I think it’s fair to wonder if 2011 served as some sort of harbinger for Johnson.

He still ranks as one of the very best receivers in the league. But he’ll be 31 in July and going into his 10th season.

Will he face other situations this fall that make us consider if he’s starting to break down?

Or will he rebound to show three different injuries in his ninth season amounted to a blip?

A lot of elite receivers play very effectively well into their 30s. I’m expecting the rebound. But there is simply no predicting health or the timetable for when a guy reliant on his legs begins to slow.

Leaving out other guys who are still active, Pro-Football-Rreference.com says Johnson’s résumé so far is similar to receivers who averaged careers of just under eight years.

A modern player with access to better training and medicine should certainly last longer.

Titans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer looks at first-round pick Kendall Wright and sees a player who reminds him of players from the franchise’s passing glory days.

“I think this guy reminds me of Drew Hill and Ernest Givins that we had back in the run and shoot days in Houston,” Palmer told Nashville media. “He is a guy that can also play outside. He closes the cushion between himself and the defensive back very quickly. The fact that he has the ability with the run after catch, his hands are very good, and I think he is a guy that will allow us to move him around and complement our other receivers and be more explosive offensively. The fact that he can get down the field, and if you watch the film he has thrown passes and made big game catches. I think this guy is electric and a very explosive player.”

Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger, his offensive coordinator during much of his tenure with the Titans, were often reluctant to lean on rookie wide receivers.

Palmer emphasized that his offense can create opportunity for a first-year guy, which will be a refreshing change.

“You can go back and look at our record; we had Terry Glenn in New England, as a rookie caught 90 balls,” Palmer said. “We had Kevin Johnson at Syracuse as a receiver first year had eight touchdowns. You had Andre Johnson who had 975 yards his rookie year. So, I think this system allows a rookie to come in and play early. There is enough evidence of that in the history of our coaching to indicate that we’re counting on this guy to come in and play.”

Without Andre Johnson for a good share of the season, the Texans' receivers were exposed in 2011.

While Arian Foster and other non-receivers may have been making plays, the Texans were one of just two teams in the NFL that didn’t have any 30-yard receptions from their receivers on throws that traveled fewer than 15 yards, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

On average, Houston receivers got 3.1 yards after the catch. That ranked 31st in the NFL. But that was offset in a big way by four non-wide receiver pass-catchers.

Foster averaged a league-best 12.0 per catch among players with at least 50 catches. Owen Daniels (5.6), Joel Dreessen (5.5) and Ben Tate (6.2) also did solid work after the catch.

Largely because of those four, the Texans ranked second overall in average YAC per reception, with 6.3 yards. New England was first at 6.5.

A healthy Johnson will help boost the receiver numbers in a big way.

The team’s next two best wideouts are Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones.

Walter (3.5) is not a big YAC guy; he’s a reliable guy who will be in the right spot and do the right things. Jones (4.8) is explosive and should do quite a bit more in this department.

Whether the Texans add a receiver in the first round or wait until later, the guy who’s added to the group needs to be able to take passes from Matt Schaub and get some additional yards.

Houston Texans

Wide receiver Andre Johnson talked to Sirius NFL Radio about the Texans' losses in free agency and how he still isn't over the DeMeco Ryans trade.

Johnson said he never took the Peyton Manning-to-Texans rumors seriously.

Arian Foster is not a fan of the NCAA. In an interview with NFLDraft365, Foster said, “I don’t really like the NCAA. I don’t believe that the system they have in place is fair. College football is a billion dollar business. And they equate the billions of dollars they make to a bachelor’s degree."

Nike unveiled the Texans’ new uniforms Tuesday, but there were no real changes.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have signed free-agent tight end Kyle Miller and long-snapper Matt Overton.

Indianapolis may be interested in signing free-agent quarterback Byron Leftwich to teach either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

The team had no comment after putting former Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck through a private workout Tuesday in Palo Alto, Calif. Among those on hand were general manager Ryan Grigson, coach Chuck Pagano, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians and quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, reports Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Former Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore, in an interview with NBC, said Luck was the closest thing he's seen to a second coming of Manning.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars say a new coaching staff and new facilities have changed the atmosphere.

Tyson Alualu is off crutches following offseason surgery to clean out his knee, reports Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union. "I’m just excited and looking forward to a great season with two healthy knees," Alualu said.

The play of the Jaguars' receivers dropped off last season under former WR coach Johnny Cox, but wideout Mike Thomas expects better things under new position coach Jerry Sullivan, writes Ganguli.

Blaine Gabbert took a philosophical approach to the team's failed effort to land Tim Tebow. "It was not a worry in the world," Gabbert said. "[The Jaguars] had to do their due diligence evaluating players. It’s the nature of the business. You have to do that in order to build a complete football team.”

Tennessee Titans

Titans GM Ruston Webster says the team is preparing for a second round of free agency, reports The Tennessean's John Glennon. “We’ll keep looking at guys and talking about guys to sign and fill spots for us,” Webster said.

The Titans have signed former Jaguars defensive lineman Leger Douzable.

Tennessee has re-signed Pannel Egboh, a defensive end who has spent his three seasons in the NFL on practice squads, to add depth behind Kamerion Wimbley and Derrick Morgan.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

With the departure of Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the AFC South lost two overall No. 1 picks.

The loss of star power led me to wonder about what our teams have left in terms of high-ranking draft picks, and how they compare to one another and the rest of the league.

John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked at the average draft slot of the top 10 highest-drafted players -- how ever deep that goes beyond the first round -- still on each team.

Obviously, where a team drafts is based on how it finishes. Certainly higher draft picks hardly guarantee successful choices. But if you’ve got higher picks, you’ve got a better chance of hitting.

As the chart at right shows, all four AFC South teams fall below the league average of 35.1: The Texans are at 35.4, the Jaguars 38.1, the Titans 39.3 and the Colts 46.8.

The Texans and Colts clearly suffer from losing Williams and Manning. The Jaguars have only four home-grown first-rounders on their team after a bunch of busts. The Titans' number inflates because Adam Jones and Vince Young didn’t stick around. The Colts have been consistently good, so they’ve consistently drafted late. Their averages are about to rise.

As the chart below shows, the top 10 highest-drafted players still in the AFC South average a draft spot of 11.1. The only division whose top 10 remaining home-grown draft picks were selected at a worse average position is the NFC East (13.9).

It's interesting that first-rounders remaining were drafted, on average, inside the top 12.

Last year, when Bill Polian was still running the Colts, he said he expected a higher hit rate when picking before and after 12th through a draft.

“I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20," he said. "If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven."

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info limited his search to the average draft position of first-rounders remaining with the team that drafted them (chart at right). This seems less telling to me as you eliminate first-rounders who busted, and first-rounders who have left.

Buffalo’s the high at 7.7, the Giants are the low at 25.2.

Jacksonville comes in at 14.0, Houston at 15.0, Tennessee at 19.4 and Indianapolis at 24.2.

Here are the top draft guys in the division now, pending the Colts' pick at No. 1, and the Jaguars' pick at No. 7.

• Texans receiver Andre Johnson, third overall
• Titans quarterback Jake Locker, eighth
• Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, eighth
• Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, 10th
• Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert, 10th
• Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, 11th
• Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, 11th
• Texans inside linebacker Brian Cushing, 15th
• Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan, 16th
• Titans safety Michael Griffin, 19th

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

This mock draft from John McClain of the Houston Chronicle has the Texans taking Illinois outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus.

Andre Johnson has not renegotiated his contract at this time, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star appreciates how Peyton Manning dealt with incredible disappointments. The Star has a Manning page.

The next quarterback of the Colts will come in as a rookie starter, just like the last guy did, says Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union gives us the lowdown on the contract details for Rashean Mathis.

Starting at 12:45 p.m. ET, Ganguli will live blog Shahid Khan’s meeting with the Times-Union’s editorial board.

Tennessee Titans

The one obvious wild card with the Titans and Manning is owner Bud Adams, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

“College spread offenses are making it more difficult to judge how a lineman might perform in the NFL” and that affects how the Titans evaluate, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Lost in a day that was busy thanks to Peyton Manning were new mock drafts from Todd McShay and Mel Kiper.

Here’s the fourth of four team by team reviews.

26) Houston Texans

McShay: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

"Wright will be looking to improve on the 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine when he runs at his March 21 pro day, but his stock hasn't been hurt much because he plays much faster than that on tape. Wright could add another explosive element to the Houston offense and offer the coaching staff all kinds of possibilities lined up opposite Andre Johnson."

Kiper: Wright

"When the Texans lost Andre Johnson last year, it completely eliminated their ability to stretch the field. That's a problem, because this is a system that thrives on regular use of play-action packages, and it loses a lot of juice if there's nobody around to challenge defenses deep. Wright can do that. His performance in Indy wasn't his best, but his tape shines -- you see a guy that plays fast in pads and beats people deep. His hands are also fine."

Kuharsky: Wright sounds like just the kind of weapon the Texans need to round things out. They could need an offensive lineman depending on what happens with free agents to be Chris Myers and Mike Brisiel. But they won’t be desperate for anything, so if they don’t love Wright and do love someone else, they could go anywhere.

The Colts' release of Peyton Manning will leave a huge void in our division.

Without him in the AFC South, how does a star system that’s revolved around him for some time now align?

We’ll make two large presumptions here -- Mario Williams will be out of the division and Andrew Luck will be in it.

Here’s my order, with comments from Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.:

1. Arian Foster, Texans running back.

Production: An average of 88.5 yards rushing and 126 total yards per game, with 33 touchdowns in 35 games. That’s tremendous. Last season in the Texans' second playoff game he ran for 132 yards against a highly touted Ravens defense in Baltimore.

Personality: He’s a complex, smart guy whose interests extend well beyond football. And that’s a model a lot more people in the league should follow. He’s been the most underpaid player in the league over the past two seasons, and rather than gripe about it he offered context, showed patience and just got rewarded with a five-year contract.

Popularity: It’s giant and growing in Houston and nationally. He tweets with fans. And he's unafraid to take on big topics in social media, like his perspective on fantasy football or sharing an injury X-ray.

Williamson: “Perfect piece for this running game -- with [Adrian] Peterson injured, could be the top running back in all of football. Very versatile. GREAT all-around player on the best team in division.”

2. Andre Johnson, Texans receiver

Production: In 122 career games, he’s averaged 79 receiving yards a game and 13.7 yards a catch. He’s scored 52 touchdowns and led the NFL twice in receptions and twice in yardage while earning a spot on the All-Pro first team twice. He is a willing and effective blocker who combines size and speed.

Personality: Has done a good deal to help take the diva out of the receiver position, a trend that had reached some epic proportions. Soft spoken but strong willed, he’s shown himself to be accountable. A rock and a leader for a team that took too long to surround him with playoff talent.

Popularity: He’s absolutely beloved in Houston and qualifies as the all-time face of the young franchise. For a star of his size, he seems accessible and approachable, and appreciative that people want access and approachability.

Williamson: “With the body of work, he’s not far removed from being the best wide receiver in the NFL. He easily could rebound from injury to regain such status.”

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars running back

Production: Despite facing stacked boxes throughout his career, Jones-Drew has plowed for 73.7 yards a game and 4.6 yards a carry. He’s also been a solid receiver with at least 34 catches a season. In 93 games, he’s scored 73 touchdowns.

Personality: He’s a fun guy who’s well liked by team executives, coaches and teammates. But he can be defensive and take things way too personally. He maintains a list of reporters whom he feels slighted him, which is a bit over the top for a star of his magnitude.

Popularity: Very much the face of the franchise -- many would say too much so. He’s an affable guy who’s very well liked in Jacksonville and has built a national profile thanks largely to his fantasy football production and a regular gig on Sirius NFL Radio centered on the fantasy game.

Williamson: “No running back had a better 2011 season than MJD. He does it all with ZERO around him. A pro’s pro.”

4. Andrew Luck, presumed Colts quarterback

Production: In three seasons as the starter at Stanford, he completed 67 percent of his passes with 82 touchdowns and 22 interceptions despite not being surrounded by great weapons. His football IQ and accuracy are factors that make him such a big-time prospect. He’s underrated as an athlete who can run and jump and do a lot of things that may not be primary skills for a pocket passer but will be big factors in a well-rounded game.

Personality: He seems like a nice enough guy and is close to an engineering degree from Stanford, which tells you he’s quite smart. He stayed in school for his senior year, which showed confidence that he would be better positioned coming out after another year of school. It also suggested some perspective on football.

Popularity: He’s a huge star coming out being so strongly the consensus No. 1 pick. He has a regular-guy demeanor that will serve him well as he inherits Manning’s spot with the Colts. It may come a bit more slowly than most No. 1 picks because of that context, but if he plays as predicted, it’ll come.

Williamson: “It is all about the future/potential/hope ... and that is a terrific story. Of course, following in Manning’s footsteps factors in as well. An exceptional and rare prospect.”

5. Chris Johnson, Titans running back

Production: It dropped off in a major way last season after he got the big contract extension he was looking for. Even with a down year, he’s averaged 89.6 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards a carry and he’s scored 42 touchdowns in 63 games. Does he have the same speed he showed in his first three seasons?

Personality: In a word, brash. He’s made big predictions and the down year hasn’t stopped that. He recently tweeted that he will lead the league in rushing next season. Some view him as selfish -- and it’s a fair idea to examine as his effort was questionable at times. You won’t find a more confident guy, and he may like the star life a little bit too much.

Popularity: He was huge when he topped 2,000 rushing yards in 2009, and with 12 touchdowns in 2010 he was still one of the league’s top backs. But Titans fans (and fantasy owners who drafted him at or near the top) loved him less as Tennessee didn’t run nearly as effectively as usual in 2011.

Williamson: “We have certainly seen what a difference-maker Johnson can be. And actually, I expect his situation to improve a great deal next season with an improved interior offensive line and getting Kenny Britt back in the lineup, but there were just too many runs in 2011 where Johnson lacked competitiveness.”

Two notes:

• I struggled to choose between Johnson and Houston linebacker Brian Cushing for the last spot. But it’s hard for a defensive player to outrank a guy who has the ball all the time. And fair or not, Cushing has a dent in his national reputation because of his four-game suspension in 2010.
• Williamson said Britt and Titans quarterback Jake Locker could press for inclusion soon and I agree. For Britt it’s about health; For Locker it’s about opportunity and production.

In this Insider piece, K.C. Joyner lays out a four-point rationale for a team to pursue Mike Wallace, who will be a restricted free agent.

1. Their level of need for a dominant vertical wide receiver
2. Their salary-cap situation
3. The level of first-round pick they would have to give up
4. Their incentive level for making life tougher for the Steelers (from a salary-cap and/or personnel perspective)

He concludes the Patriots, Niners, Ravens and Bengals would be the best teams to pursue Wallace with an offer sheet. If Wallace signs one and the Steelers don’t choose to match, the team that gets Wallace would surrender its first-round pick as compensation.

Two teams in the AFC South are receiver-needy and would at least have to discuss Wallace.

Jacksonville has the money, but holds the seventh pick, which would be a steep price to pay. Maybe Wallace is worth it. But the Jaguars can add a high-quality free-agent or two at no draft-pick cost, then add another very good player at No. 7.

Houston doesn’t have the money, but the 26th pick is a far more reasonable price. A dominant vertical receiver would really help the offense, and making life tough on the Steelers would be a bonus in a fight for playoff spots and positioning over the next several years.

Said Joyner when I asked him about Wallace and Houston: "Texans + Wallace = AFC Super Bowl favorites. Wallace & Johnson would be hands down best 1-2 WR tandem in NFL."

It will take a big contract to get Wallace, however. Mario Williams is probably gone, because they can't afford him, and they are attempting to lock up Arian Foster, Chris Myers and probably Mike Brisiel.

I don’t expect Houston will go for Wallace.

But they don’t have a ton of needs, even if they lose most of their free agents. If they can create the cap room, in part by parting with Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter, why not seriously consider it? Then they'd have Andre Johnson, Wallace, a kid like Jeff Maehl and a couple draft picks at receiver.

What do you think? Please chime in with this handy poll.

INDIANAPOLIS -- While still backing Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones, Texans coach Gary Kubiak conceded this week the Texans are looking for a wide receiver.

One draft prospect who looks like a nice fit to play with, and eventually succeed, Andre Johnson is LSU’s Rueben Randle.

At just under 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, he’s a nice combination of size, strength and speed. He’s a willing blocker which also makes him a potential fit for Houston, which drafts 26th in the first round.

“I try to model myself after Calvin Johnson, he’s a big body receiver," Randle said. “He makes a lot of plays deep down the field and also yards after the catch. I try to model myself in that kind of way.”

Johnson’s also been on Randle’s radar.

“You’ve got no choice but to look at him," Randle said. “He makes plays each and every Sunday whether it’s two guys on him, three he just goes and makes plays on the ball and the quarterback trusts him. That’s the kind of thing I’m trying to build with the quarterbacks I play with.

“…That’d be great (to play with him). I’m pretty sure he’s going to get a lot of attention, that would free me up a little bit so it wouldn’t be much of a struggle for me. It’d be great to play with a great receiver like Andre Johnson, I’d just look forward to that.”

Said ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay: “Of the bigger guys, Randle can probably get down the field the best and is probably the most athletic.”

The downside?

McShay has trouble forgetting Randle’s performance in LSU’s national championship game loss to Alabama.

“He quit on them in the national championship game, which drive me nuts,” McShay said. “But you just have to live with it, he’s a receiver.”

Randle wasn’t asked about the championship game. Be he did rate Alabama’s DeQuan Menzie as the best defensive back he saw beyond LSU teammates.

Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders runs through the primary need of each AFC South team in this Insider piece . Here’s a peek at what he has to say with my reflections.

Houston Texans: Wide receiver

McCown: “The Texans enter free agency as a team with a promising amount of depth at many key areas, but Andre Johnson's injury last season exposed the fact that Houston's wide receivers simply aren't up to snuff without him ...

“The Texans will look hard at receivers in free agency and the draft. It's unlikely that they'll land a top-tier wideout like Marques Colston or Vincent Jackson because they still need to budget money carefully for players like Mario Williams, Arian Foster and Chris Myers. But a mid-level receiver like Steve Johnson, Reggie Wayne or Robert Meachem could potentially be brought in.

“More likely, however, the path for improvement will come through the draft.”

Paul Kuharsky: I think the Texans like Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones better than most analysts, but the long stretches without Johnson made them overly reliant on Foster as a target showed they don’t have enough at wideout.

Indianapolis Colts: Wide receiver

McCown: “Of the top five receivers on the Colts' depth chart going into last season, only Austin Collie and Blair White are under contract for 2012. Reggie Wayne, who will turn 34 during the 2012 season, is likely on the outs as this team begins a rebuilding phase. The Colts have expressed interest in re-signing free agent Pierre Garcon, who has generally fared very poorly in our receiving numbers. Garcon came out as below-replacement value last year, but he has ideal deep speed, and playing with Dan Orlovsky or Curtis Painter will make any speed receiver look worse than he really is. Anthony Gonzalez is also finally out the door after a disappointing, injury-plagued career in Colts blue.

“Again, given the direction of the team, it's rather unlikely that the Colts will be players for an elite free-agent receiver, but they could probably be in on the mid-tier targets with an eye toward youth. Players like Laurent Robinson, Harry Douglas or Andre Caldwell could make sense here. The Colts could also spend their second- or third-round picks on a receiver who could compete for snaps.”

Kuharsky: McCown writes he skipped past quarterback knowing it will be addressed with the No. 1 pick. Receiver is certainly a concern, but I think cornerback may rate as even bigger for a team that hired a defensive head coach in Chuck Pagano. If the new regime likes Jerraud Powers, the team still ranks as thin in coverage guys after him.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Wide receiver

McCown: "Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson summed it up best when he said: 'Those guys couldn't get a [expletive] receiver if it hit them in the head. They haven't had anyone since Jimmy Smith. ...'

“There are two ways to (upgrade). The Jaguars could make a play for Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson. They certainly have the cap space to accomplish such a goal and could even bowl over someone who is iffy about Jacksonville with extra money. Or they could see if Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon falls into their laps at No. 7 overall, which would certainly be a more cost-conscious, if risky, move.”

Kuharsky: We are certainly talking about more than one guy. The Jaguars could aggressively shop in free agency and get a first-tier and second-tier guy. Or they could grab one veteran and spend a premium pick on another receiver. Upgrading the weapons for Blaine Gabbert is definitely priority No. 1.

Tennessee Titans: Defensive end

McCown: “Assuming that the Titans continue to handcuff themselves to the declining Chris Johnson, the biggest need in Nashville is an elite pass-rusher. When Jason Babin joined former Titans defensive line coach Jim Washburn in defecting to the Eagles, the Titans' adjusted sack rate fell from 13th in the NFL in 2010 to second-to-last in 2011. Moreover, only two teams generated fewer quarterback hits from their top pass-rushers than the six the Titans had from Dave Ball: the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills ...

“If they can't address defensive end in free agency, then a pass rusher will likely be a top priority for the Titans with their first-round pick. If they do pick up a premier sack artist, then it would give them an opportunity to spend the pick on a safety or wide receiver, which are also positions that could use reinforcement in Nashville.”

Kuharsky: The Titans need immediate impact at the spot. I don’t expect them to overpay Williams if he's free. The free-agent crop behind him could be thin if guys get franchised. Can they find a reclamation type like Babin who will be an upgrade on opening day? Will a guy who can consistently get into the backfield still be on the draft board at No. 20?

Houston

The best season in Texans history keeps paying dividends -- receiver Andre Johnson and defensive end J.J. Watt will be the grand marshals of the upcoming Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo Downtown Parade.

Indianapolis

Les Carpenter (Yahoo! Sports) says Peyton Manning should simply retire. "Before he wanders into a hopeless future with a bad arm, he should wonder what is left in a career that can’t get any better."

The Colts have added depth, signing a defensive end and a defensive back.

Jacksonville

Here is a scouting report on a potential draft pick for the Jaguars.

The Jaguars’ new strength and conditioning staff isn’t putting all of its emphasis on the weight room.

Tennessee

The Titans have agreed to terms with tackle Mike Otto on a multi-year contract. Otto has played in 41 games during his five-year career with Tennessee.

The New York Giants put their fingerprints all over the Vince Lombardi Trophy Sunday night while the rest of the league watched jealously.

It’s a copycat league and every other team should, and will, now measure itself against the Super Bowl champions as they plan to juggle their rosters to try to make their own run for the title in 2012.

How do the teams of the AFC South stack up?

Houston Texans

Clearly the Texans have the most talent in the division. They are equipped to play the type of game the Giants played to beat the Patriots. But their depth at receiver hardly compares to what New York rolled out. If Andre Johnson is their Hakeem Nicks, who’s their Mario Manningham? A healthy Matt Schaub has gotten better at minimizing the big mistakes, but in high-pressure situations he still has to prove he can play the sort of clutch, mistake-free football we just saw from Eli Manning.

Indianapolis Colts

A rebuild is underway, and the Colts can certainly dream and anticipate that after they spend the No. 1 pick on Andrew Luck, the quarterback will grow into a guy who can control a game the way Manning controlled the Super Bowl. Do they have the running backs who can combine to contribute the way Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs did? Probably not. And even if they retain their star pass-rusher, they need to be far deeper along the defensive front.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are a long, long way off from the Giants. They are trying to develop Blaine Gabbert into a winning quarterback, but what he showed in his rookie year showed him to be worlds apart from a poised, clutch Manning. The current roster of Jacksonville receivers and targets is also in no way comparable to their counterparts on the newly crowned champions. The defense is much better, but lacks a Justin Tuck type of presence up front.

Tennessee Titans

Maybe Matt Hasselbeck could have a day like Manning did and maybe his weapons could produces the way Manning’s did. We don’t yet know if Jake Locker could. But the 2011 Titans rarely operated with the sort of precision and swagger we saw from the Giants' offense on Sunday. The run game has a power element Tennessee lacks. And the Titans' pass rush couldn’t put the sort of heat on Tom Brady the Giants did.