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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- When Andrew Luck was getting grief from his draft classmates in New York over his primitive cell phone, Justin Blackmon was on board.

It turns out his own telecommunications situation isn’t exactly superior.

Blackmon tossed his iPhone off a roller coaster at Six Flags last season, and the person he tossed it to fumbled it. When he went and found it below, the screen was cracked and he couldn’t hear callers.

He eventually replaced it but the replacement was stolen. So he reverted back to an old one and now has a GPS that’s hard to read -- he has to constantly reset it as he tries to find his way around. And he has to put on big Beats headphones to fully participate in a call. (You’re better off texting him.)

So the No. 1 and No. 5 picks in the draft come into the AFC South with questionable cell phone situations.

Here’s hoping once they sign contracts and have a break they can upgrade to something more suited to their stature.

Blackmon thinks Luck should go first.

“He’s got a Nokia flip phone, I gave him crap about it this weekend (at the rookie premiere),” Blackmon said. “I don’t know why he keeps that thing, he just won’t get a new one. I know his upgrade is somewhere close. I’m nowhere around mine, and those iPhones run big money.”

Hat tip to NFL Network’s Albert Breer who tweeted the way to this very cool story:

An anonymous donor to Stanford has endowed the offensive coordinator position in Andrew Luck’s name. That means offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is now, officially, the school’s Andrew Luck director of offense.

"It is a huge tribute," said Luck of his named Directorship in this news release from the university. "To have anything endowed in my name is a complete honor. I feel very fortunate to have come to Stanford, and I have always enjoyed representing the University. The offensive coordinators I've had here helped me not only in football, but also to grow so much as a person. To be a part of that leadership and position is a very proud legacy for me."

The story also includes nice reflection on the honor from Hamilton and from coach David Shaw, who’s also known as the Bradford M. Freeman director of football .

Now, is there a rich Coby Fleener lover who can get tight ends coach Ron Crook’s job endowed in his name?

Indianapolis Colts fans will have to wait to get new snapshots of Andrew Luck. As his class finishes at Stanford, he can’t officially rejoin the team until June 8, and his minicamp participation June 12-14 will be much heralded.

Making it even tougher for fans of the Colts to wait on the present, is that their past is up and running.

Peyton Manning reportedly threw on target and with zip as the Denver Broncos kicked off their OTAs Monday.

He’s been gone for some time already.

But I imagine a lot of Colts fans will struggle at seeing pictures and video and hearing reports of Manning’s first day working with the Broncos in a group setting.

On SportsCenter just now I saw him doing his pre-snap pointing, taking drops and firing passes, then talking in front of a banner with Broncos logos on it.

Some in Indianapolis paid close attention, but I don’t doubt others felt they needed to change the channel.

Houston Texans

Former Texans receiver Jacoby Jones welcomes his move to new surroundings in Baltimore. "Change is good in life," said Jones, whose muffed punt in last season's playoffs led to a Ravens touchdown in a game Baltimore won by seven. "It’s always good to have a breath of fresh air.”

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts appear to be feeling the absence of top draft pick Andrew Luck, who is missing this week's organized team activities and can't report to the team's facilities until after his final exams at Stanford. "For him to be here, taking snaps, building chemistry, the timing with the offense, timing with the receivers, all those kind of things ... it’s days lost,’’ coach Chuck Pagano told the Indianapolis Star's Mike Chappell of the quarterback. “It’s like money you never get back."

The team signed four more draft picks Wednesday: fifth-rounder Vick Ballard, sixth-rounder LaVon Brazill, and seventh-round selections Tim Fugger and Chandler Harnish.

Becoming head coach of the Colts "has been a whirlwind" Pagano says in a Q&A with Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Though he hasn't been cleared for contact, linebacker Paul Posluszny is participating in this week's organized team activities as he recovers from January shoulder surgery. "As far as working out, being functional, the strength, the stability -- everything is back," Posluszny, who expects to be at full strength for training camp, told the team's official site. "I’m still not allowed to be in contact, but other than that, it feels great. It feels normal to me."

The Jaguars don't mind practicing in the rain, writes Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert isn't taking his starting job for granted, writes Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

As expected, receiver Kenny Britt had minor surgery on his right knee in an effort to boost his return from torn ligaments suffered in September. The procedure will "probably accelerate his rehab," Titans general manager Ruston Webster told the Tennessean. Also in Jim Wyatt's notebook: The Titans have not had any contract talks with franchise player Michael Griffin, but the safety is working out with teammates. And third-round pick Mike Martin signed a four-year deal.

And after thoroughly examining other options at center, it looks like the Titans will go with one of their own this fall, writes Wyatt. Eugene Amano, the regular starter the past two seasons, will have to hold off Kevin Matthews, Fernando Velasco and rookie William Vlachos for the job, Webster said.

The Titans are in the running for former Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell, writes Terry McCormick.

Picking a starting quarterback can be a difficult proposition, but for the Titans, Webster says choosing between Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker could come down to a simple "gut feeling," writes Elliot Harrison of NFL.com.

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

Owner Bob McNair’s challenge is to keep contract extensions for coach Gary Kubiak and GM Rick Smith at a manageable length “so that he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger if the time does come that he has to make a move,” writes Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

Recently cut receiver and return man Jacoby Jones signed with the rival Ravens, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

The rookie wage scale that was part of the new collective bargaining agreement means the contract for No. 1 pick Andrew Luck won’t be difficult, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback Jordan Palmer doesn’t see as much Bob Bratkowski influence on the Jaguars’ offense as he expected, says Tania Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

Matt Hasselbeck and Michael Roos have built a close friendship based on mutual respect, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean. Hasselbeck jokes that two bald guys spend a lot of time discussing hair styles.

It would be better if Andrew Luck had a full offseason with the Colts. But missing time while he finishes up at Stanford isn't going to set his new team back as much as some people like to think.

Let’s set aside Andrew Luck for the purposes of this post. Provided he’s not injured, the Colts rookie quarterback will start all season, and a starting quarterback is likely to be more impactful than people who play further away from the football.

So, beyond Luck, what rookie stands to make the biggest impact in his first season?

I’m looking for your vote and your case for the preseason AFC South Rookie of the Year BL -- Besides Luck.

I only get five slots in the poll, and went with the highest-ranking guys from the draft.

Justin Blackmon will be in line to make a big impact lining up outside provided Blaine Gabbert proves able of getting him the ball.

Kendall Wright would seem less likely to post big numbers, given he’s got a better group of receivers to compete for catches against.

Whitney Mercilus should add to the Texans' pass rush, but he’s third in line where they will have two on the field at a time.

Coby Fleener could be Luck’s top target based on Bruce Arians’ system and the pre-existing relationship between the tight end and quarterback.

Andre Branch has a chance to be the final piece to a very good defense in Jacksonville if the end can effectively and consistently rush the passer.

Like somebody drafted lower better?

Make your case below.

Reading the coverage ...

What to expect from the cornerbacks drafted into the AFC South, from Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report.

Houston Texans

Moving on from Neil Rackers, the Texans signed veteran kicker Shayne Graham to compete with draft pick Randy Bullock, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. He’s been with four teams the past two seasons and clearly the hope would be that the rookie can seize the job.

Wade Phillips is optimistic about the pass rush the Texans will field this fall, says McClain.

Who is the Texans’ No. 2 receiver? Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report considers the question.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck isn’t going to be able to use Jim Irsay’s plane to help him get together with other Colts before the class of 2012 is finished at Stanford, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

The Colts will return to Anderson University for training camp, with players reporting July 28, says the Star.

What the Colts need to accomplish in 2012 to consider the season a success, from Dunlevy. I’m big on his first point, developing a defensive identity.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jordan Palmer is in line to be the Jaguars’ No. 3 quarterback, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union. Palmer was one of the players the team signed after a minicamp included a bunch of tryout guys.

The Jets, Lions and Titans have expressed interest in recently released cornerback Drew Coleman, according to Kimberley Martin of Newsday. Rex Ryan acknowledged the Jets would look at Coleman, who played well for them before he moved on to Jacksonville.

Tennessee Titans

Running through the post-draft roster and assessing if the Titans got better, stayed the same or got worse through free agency and the draft with Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Wyatt takes a closer look at fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson.

Three Titans who should be extended in the opinion of Zach Law from Bleacher Report. I’d hold off on Jared Cook.

Six positions around the league that needed addressing didn’t get attention in the draft.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. gives them attention in this piece . A third of his areas of concern come out of the AFC South.

Here’s what he says, along with my thoughts:

Indianapolis Colts: Defense

Williamson: “Rome wasn't built in a day, and clearly the Colts decided to focus on surrounding Andrew Luck with a strong young supporting cast rather than building their defense, which will be transitioning from a fast-flowing Cover 2 scheme with smallish players at every position to a versatile scheme in the mold of Baltimore's defense that features power and strength. That is a very difficult transition to make. Indianapolis' first pick on the defensive side of the ball was made on Josh Chapman in Round 5. That pick presented great value for the long term, as Chapman has the makeup for nose tackle in the Colts' 3-4 or as a space-eating defensive tackle in their four-man front.

“But after that selection, Indianapolis used just one more pick on defense, grabbing Tim Fugger with the 214th pick overall. The Colts very well could have the worst defense in the NFL in 2012, but the reality is I can't be critical of what they did on draft day, as building around a young first-round quarterback is the correct decision. Rebuilding the defense will have to be a job for another day, but it will be a massive job indeed, as I see only a few players currently on the Colts' roster who can be projected as long-term answers in their new defensive scheme.”

My thoughts: I line up with Williamson’s thinking here. There is a lot of work to be done on defense, but the Colts simply didn’t have the free-agent spending money or the number of draft picks needed to sufficiently fill all the holes on both sides of the ball. So they started on offense. Next year I suspect it’ll be slanted the other way.

Tennessee Titans: Interior offensive line

Williamson: “The Titans didn't use one draft pick on an offensive lineman this year. Although they are set at both tackle spots, the interior of their offensive line needed to be upgraded. It was easy to blame Chris Johnson for his effort -- or lack thereof -- early in the 2011 season, but the blocking provided for him was far from ideal. Tennessee did add Steve Hutchinson to start at left guard. Hutchinson certainly isn't what he once was, especially as a run-blocker, but he does know every trick of the trade and should be a positive influence to this line and the offense in general.

“Interestingly enough, the Titans were as good collectively pass blocking as they were poor with run blocking. But my worries are at right guard and especially center, where Leroy Harris and Eugene Amano are the respective starters. Like the rest of their linemates, these two struggled to open holes for Johnson but did a fine job protecting Matt Hasselbeck. But I also contend that Hasselbeck is one of those quick-witted veteran quarterbacks who excels at masking problems with his protection.”

“If and when Jake Locker is going to take over behind center, Tennessee will need to effectively run the football. The Titans' offensive line depth is about as poor as any team's in the NFL, which made the lack of attention given to the guys up front even more curious, especially considering who Tennessee's head coach is.”

My thoughts: Mike Munchak and Bruce Matthews are Hall of Fame offensive linemen. They continue to get the benefit of the doubt. But if this line doesn’t run block substantially better early on in this season, that benefit of the doubt will start to evaporate and be replaced by a different idea -- that they are too close to guys like Amano and Harris to recognize the need to upgrade.

A review of what was learned from the Colts’ rookie minicamp.

• Peyton Manning didn’t like quarterbacks being set apart by wearing red jerseys. But the new regime has Andrew Luck and the rest of the quarterbacks in the traditional stop sign garb, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star. Manning didn’t like anything that separated the quarterbacks from the rest of the team, but now the Colts are using the same sort of caution used around the league.
• Chuck Pagano and his staff intentionally overloaded the rookies, and say they will figure it all out later, writes Chappell.
• The team is steering clear of the word rebuilding. It’s all semantics, but “rebuilding” has kind of become a taboo term around the league. Frame it any way you like, guys, you’re rebuilding.
• The Colts added no cornerbacks in the draft. Out of the undrafted rookies, Chappell said Wisconsin's Antonio Fenelus and Pittsburgh's Buddy Jackson worked as the starters, with Maryland's Cameron Chism being added to the mix in nickel situations. So those are the guys to keep an eye on when the whole team gets together.
• Joseph Addai signed with the Patriots, where I think he can contribute in spots. Chappell thought the Colts should have brought him back, and that he would have been an ideal situational player. I can see that stance, but in clearing the roster and clearing the books, it made sense to part ways.
• June 13th’s full-team minicamp practice will be at Lucas Oil Stadium and be open to the public.
• Luck finished off the minicamp with a touchdown pass, says Chappell. Now he’s back to school, and he can’t return until his class’ work at Stanford is finished. The rule isn’t the same for tight end Coby Fleener, because he’s already finished his undergraduate work. Two others will also miss a lot of work between now and early June: wide receivers Griff Whalen (Stanford) and LaVon Brazill (Ohio).

Bob Holtzman reports from Indianapolis as the Andrew Luck era begins.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

We haven’t touched on it this season. But it’s a pet peeve of mine: Too many people attach too much significance to pre-draft visits.

The Jaguars had fifth-rounder linebacker Brandon Marshall and seventh-round defensive tackle Jeris Pendleton to Jacksonville. That’s two of six picks.

The Titans had first-round receiver Kendall Wright, second-round linebacker Zach Brown, third-round defensive tackle Mike Martin, and fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson to Nashville. That’s four of seven.

I didn’t get details directly from the other two teams, but I did some fishing around.

From reports I’ve sifted though, the Texans had visits with guard Brandon Brooks, kicker Randy Bullock and offensive tackle Nick Mondek. That’s three of eight.

Also from reports, indications are the Colts spent time in Indianapolis with Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Tim Frugger. That’s three of 10.

We could be missing a couple Houston or Indianapolis visits.

But based on what we know, the AFC South visit rate of draft picks this year was 38.7 percent.

We shall recall this next year when someone notes a visit before the draft as a telling sign of something.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Case Keenum is grateful that he landed as an undrafted quarterback with the Texans, says Sam Khan of the Houston Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

How Andrew Luck can have early success, from Austin Green of Bleacher Report. “He's got the arm strength, the accuracy, the mechanics and, perhaps most importantly, the intelligence to lead the Colts on a surprising run this season.”

Jacksonville Jaguars

From Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union: “By not re-signing punter Adam Podlesh last year, didn't the Jaguars essentially tell us that he wasn't good enough to merit his fourth-round selection? How many All-Pro selections will (Bryan) Anger have to receive to justify his third-round status -- one, three, five or never enough?”

Shad Khan discussed his willingness to spend, on players and facilities, with Vito Stellino of the T-U.

Tennessee Titans

Matt Hasselbeck is excited about the addition of Kendall Wright, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean. “It just gives us more leeway, and it should help the passing game. It should help the running game, too. We’ll find out.”