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1. Houston Texans: Wade Phillips did some great things with this defense a year ago. But he’s not the only member of the Texans’ organization who deserves credit for an incredibly improved defense from 2010 to 2011. Houston’s front office was very aggressive in addressing the defensive side of the ball last offseason. Now, Houston has big-time players at each level of its 3-4 defense.

For those who don’t yet know, J.J. Watt immediately established himself as one of the up-and-coming defensive players in this league. Not only is Watt is a fantastic hustle player, but he has ideal size and length for his 3-4 defensive end position to go with well above-average athletic ability. Watt will be a star. Like Watt, Brian Cushing did everything asked of him really well from his inside linebacker spot last season and has established himself as one of the better second-level defenders in the league.

Before last season, the Texans paid a premium to sign him, but simply put, Johnathan Joseph is one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL today. He is the total package and probably the best player on this excellent defense -- which is really saying something. The Texans could use one more cover man to step up, though. Overall, Houston is well-equipped in coverage and of course the pass rush helped a lot in that capacity.

Maybe what the Texans’ defense did best in Phillips’ first year was rushing the quarterback -- even without Mario Williams for much of the season. The Texans did add Whitney Mercilus to further enhance their threat off the edge and Connor Barwin could be knocking on the door of stardom.

Besides the first-round selection of Mercilus, who is in an ideal position to learn the outside linebacker position slowly, the Texans mostly stuck to improving their offense in the draft. However, Houston did land an intriguing prospect to play behind Watt and the underrated Antonio Smith in late fourth-round pick Jared Crick, who is an ideal fit for this defensive scheme. Only the Steelers, 49ers and Raves allowed fewer points than Houston last year. Don’t expect much of a drop-off this year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The AFC South has a shot to have two top-five defenses in 2012. Mike Malarkey takes over as the Jaguars’ head coach, but his focus will be getting quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s career straightened out and improving a dismal Jacksonville passing game.

The defense will be in Mel Tucker’s hands. Tucker wants a fast-flowing, physical and aggressive defense that doesn’t blitz a lot and gets most of its pressure from the defensive linemen. The Jaguars found a gem in Jeremy Mincey, who’s excelled in all facets of playing defensive end in their 4-3 scheme. But this defense really lacked a complementary end to Mincey, especially as a pass-rusher. Jacksonville used the No. 38 pick in this year’s draft on Andre Branch, who could help immediately on passing downs but offers little against the run.

One guy who let this defense down last season is Tyson Alualu, who really had a down 2011 season in all regards. Still, only three teams bettered Jacksonville in rushing yards allowed per attempt in 2011. A vastly underrated positional group in the NFL is the Jaguars’ linebacker corps, especially Daryl Smith, who does everything well on the second level. Paul Posluszny isn’t much behind Smith and was a fine addition to Jacksonville’s defense in free agency a year ago. The Jags’ secondary lacks star power but it is pretty solid at each position. The Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed last year. They could improve upon that in 2012.

3. Tennessee Titans: There isn’t a lot of star power here, but the Titans are very young on defense and could be poised to improve. Youngsters Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and others are much better players than many casual NFL fans know. Third-round pick Mike Martin should be the perfect complement to the run-stuffing Casey and the lighter pass-rushing Klug in the Titans’ defensive tackle rotation.

The Titans’ pass rush was a huge problem last season, as only Tampa Bay recorded fewer sacks than Tennessee, but it should be much better this year, especially with the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. Former first-round pick Derrick Morgan also should finally be healthy. This is a key season for Morgan -- and the Titans need more from him.

On the second level, the Titans are now very young and active. Colin McCarthy is a tackling machine and should quickly establish himself as a leader of this defense. Tennessee lost Cortland Finnegan to the Rams in free agency, but overall, their coverage people were above average last season -- despite that suspect pass rush. Finnegan had an excellent season, though, and will be difficult to replace.

The Titans look to be improved up front in their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, but not as strong on the back end in coverage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points than Tennessee during the 2011 season. Maintaining that standard could be difficult, but overall, this is a pretty solid group in just about all areas.

4. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts might have the worst defense in the NFL this season. Their run defense was abysmal last season. Indianapolis has nowhere to go but up in this department and additions such as Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney and Josh Chapman should help shore up the run defense at the line of scrimmage. Still, such a drastic scheme change really leaves Indianapolis in a bind on this side of the ball for 2012.

Although the Colts surely will not be playing with the lead as much as they did when Peyton Manning was behind center, the edge pass-rush presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis should still rank among the best in the NFL. Mathis was probably the Colts’ best defensive player last season. He can still get it done. I believe the same is true with Freeney. As good as Freeney and Mathis still are, just the Titans and Buccaneers sacked opposing quarterbacks less than Indianapolis.

Besides Freeney and Mathis, Pat Angerer and especially Antoine Bethea are above-average starters for their respective positions. But outside of these four, the remaining prevalent members of the Colts’ defense are littered with flaws. One player I am very high on is Drake Nevis, but Nevis was drafted to be an upfield disruptive three-technique. The problem here is that if Indianapolis goes with a predominantly 3-4 alignment, Nevis’ great penetrating abilities could be wasted. That is the problem with switching schemes -- players from the former philosophy aren’t well-suited for what the new coaching staff has in mind. This applies to many members of the Colts’ defense, which up until now was a fast-flowing undersized unit built on speed. Now this unit will be building to be much like what Chuck Pagano coached in Baltimore -- and Nevis is one of many examples of the problems with making such a change.

The Colts were not strong at all in coverage last year -- and it doesn’t look as though they will be much improved in 2012. They are particularly weak at cornerback. Indianapolis also had the fewest interceptions in the league last year. Pagano and his defensive staff will be more creative with their looks and pressures, which he hopes will leads to more turnovers created. Getting more Ravens-type of defensive players will be a massive priority for Indianapolis next offseason.

Who’s playing pass defense for the Indianapolis Colts?

New coach Chuck Pagano will convert the Colts, a longtime 4-3 team, to a 3-4. He’s cited the Texans’ changeover a year ago as an example of how it can happen in one year and how the front actually gets scrambled up and can often still have the look of a 4-3.

In Year 1 for Pagano in Indianapolis, however, it’s the personnel that may dictate more of the old base front. The Colts signed a veteran nose tackle (Brandon McKinney) and a veteran end (Cory Redding), and drafted a nose tackle in fifth-rounder Josh Chapman. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be less predictable coming forward from outside linebacker positions.

The problem is in the secondary.

Indianapolis was 15th against the pass last year. But that ranking is misleading because offenses could run against the Colts and often handed off while trying to run time off the clock and preserve leads.

Antoine Bethea is a quality free safety and Jerraud Powers is a good corner. Beyond them, the Colts are thin and unproven in the defensive backfield.

They didn’t draft any defensive backs, though their initial undrafted rookie group of 15 includes five of them.

No matter how well the Colts rush out of the new front, the team needs people behind it who can cover, which is not the strong suit of the veteran addition to the group, strong safety Tom Zbikowski.

Bob Sanders is long gone, and injury-prone Melvin Bullitt is not with the Indianapolis Colts anymore.

Indianapolis has a dire need at strong safety, where the Colts platooned David Caldwell and Joe Lefeged last season after Bullitt was lost early on with a shoulder injury.

Even with Tom Zbikowski added, they need an upgrade next to free safety Antoine Bethea, a strong player against both the pass and the run.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Colts defense was last in the NFL on throws more than10 air yards inside the numbers in three important categories: completion percentage (72.7), yards per attempt (16.1) and attempts per TD (7.9).

Better defense on short passes over the middle is an absolute necessity for the Colts if they are going to be more effective under first-year coach Chuck Pagano and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.

Safety is thin in the draft, and strong safety is particularly thin. Possible candidates include South Carolina's Antonio Allen (fourth or fifth round projection), Alabama's DeQuan Menzie (fifth), Arkansas State's Kelcie McCray (fifth), LSU's Brandon Taylor (sixth).

Can one of those guys start on opening day? It'll probably take a good combination of scouting projecting and coaching to make it happen.

Tom Zbikowski played in 14 games, starting the first four, for the 2010 Baltimore Ravens. He finished the season with 16 defensive and seven special-teams tackles. At the end of the season he worked as a backup to strong safety Bernard Pollard, a fierce run defender who struggles in pass coverage.

The Colts will likely look for more from Zbikowski, who joins defensive lineman Cory Redding as players from Baltimore’s defense to join the Colts. Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano was Baltimore’s defensive coordinator.

“Tom is a very dedicated and fiery player,” Pagano said in a team news release. “His competitiveness drives him to perform at a high level and his aggressive style of play parallels the attitude we’re looking for from the defensive unit. We’re very excited Tom will be joining the Colts this season.”

Zbikowski can also return kicks; he had a 23.2-yard average on nine returns last year.

The Colts platooned David Caldwell and Joe Lefeged at strong safety after Melvin Bullitt was lost early in the season. Bullitt was recently released. Zbikowski should have a good chance to rank ahead of that duo and play alongside of one of the team's few remaining stalwarts -- free safety Antoine Bethea.

Here is a scouting report on the newest Colt from Scouts Inc.

Zbikowski has adequate size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is solid in filling the alley in run support and has pop and power on contact. He does a nice job maintaining leverage when defending the run and the pass. He lacks great speed and recovery quickness in man coverage but can be effective in combination-zone schemes. He has contributed some as a kick and punt returner but his production is nominal and is best as a core special teams player.

The first reaction many Colts fans will have to the news that Chuck Pagano is the team’s new coach will undoubtedly be: “Who?”

But not knowing a guy doesn’t make him a bad choice.

Owner Jim Irsay tabbed a young personnel executive, Ryan Grigson, as his new general manager. Now the two have selected Pagano, who just finished his first season as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, as their coach.

He’s been with the Ravens since 2008, with stints in Cleveland and Oakland before that.

Pagano and Grigson now set about contributing to a decision on Peyton Manning, who seems likely to be released before a $28 million bonus is due March 8, and deciding how to use the No. 1 pick in the April draft, which is likely to be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

The two biggest questions I have for Pagano are about his schemes and his staff.

He’s not inheriting a defense with Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Ray Lewis, but that doesn’t mean he can’t set about shaping a unit that plays a far different style than the undersized-but-speedy Cover 2 the Colts have rolled out for years.

Will he want to transform the team into a 3-4 like the one he’s leaving, or will he look at the best players he will have -- such as Dwight Freeney, Antoine Bethea and Pat Angerer -- and decide not to make a dramatic change? And on offense, will he want to go forward with the sort of smaller linemen, receiver-like tight ends and three-wide sets popularized in the Manning era, or will he want to have a more balanced and more powerful offense?

As for his assistants, he’s surely made friends in his three NFL stops. He’ll have a chance to retain some Colts who have not been let go yet, such as offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen, assistant offensive line coach Ron Prince, quarterback coach Jim Bob Cooter, tight ends coach Ricky Thomas, running backs coach David Walker, and assistant strength and conditioning coach Richard Howell. Grigson parted with Jim Caldwell and most of the staff, and I’d expect Pagano to finish that job.

He will need to do a lot of hiring, and the quality of the people he is able to attract will be a big factor in how successful the Colts can be.

An offensive coordinator who will have a big say in the scheme, and a giant hand in developing Luck, is going to be a huge piece in the new regime.

We’ll start trying to connect some dots from him to people he might try to bring in. One guy he knows is former Raiders coach Hue Jackson, who has yet to land a job and could be viewed as a creative offensive mind who can develop a young quarterback.

In re-drafting the 2006 draft, Mel Kiper’s looking at the promise of guys going forward and their worth and he’s not really factoring in team needs.

Here’s what he did for the AFC South.

1) Houston Texans -- Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon

Kiper: “He's played in 94 of 96 possible regular season games, plays a premium position, is a Pro Bowl shoo-in and would dominate in any system. Safe to say the guy Ray Lewis pushed for to free up the Baltimore linebackers has worked out just fine, and the future holds plenty more.” Previous draft spot: No. 12

Kuharsky: If we are living in a fantasy land where we simply add the new pick, subtract the old pick and head into 2012, then wow. Defensive tackle is the only “weak” spot in the Texans' front seven. Add Ngata and this group would be off the charts.

3) Tennessee Titans, Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, UCLA

Kiper: “Coming off a year in which he was close to unstoppable even within an offense that was far too easy to stop, Jones Drew has over 1,700 yards more than any other running back in this draft class after six years. Given his body type, he could be good for another five years, which puts him in elite territory historically.” Previous draft spot: No. 60

Kuharsky: The Titans were quarterback desperate but Kiper's not looking at that as much as Jones-Drew would be a perfect power-running game for Jeff Fisher or Mike Munchak. If we’re ignoring need and heavily weighing what’s to come, wouldn’t Jay Cutler be better? (He lasts until the Raiders at No. 7.)

28) Jacksonville Jaguars, Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn

Kiper: “Really hope that McNeill can come back in 2012 fully healthy. At his best, he's a big-time talent at left tackle, and his play early in his career made that clear. He drops some here because it's hard to project if he'll be at that level again.” Previous draft spot: No. 50

Kuharsky: With McNeill and Eugene Monroe as tackles, the Jaguars could kick Eben Britton inside or concentrate on building up an interior that could protect Blaine Gabbert in addition to blocking for Jones-Drew.

30) Indianapolis Colts, Danieal Manning, S, Abilene Christian

Kiper: “This is a player who cracks the first round because I still think his best is yet to come. Manning has been a solid return man, but his play in the secondary has been underrated, and he had a solid year for the Texans.” Previous draft spot: No. 42

Kuharsky: It’s funny, their own find at safety, Antoine Bethea, is gone three picks earlier in this scenario. Manning would be a nice fit going forward paired with Bethea, as rebuilding/replenishing the secondary is a big key for the revamping Colts.

Beyond Jones-Drew and Danieal Manning, eight other players currently in the AFC South made Kiper’s redrafted first round:

5) Mario Williams (DE, NC State) to the Green Bay Packers

16) DeMeco Ryans (LB, Arizona) to the Miami Dolphins

18) Johnathan Joseph (CB, South Carolina) to the Dallas Cowboys

24) Eric Winston (OT, Miami) to the Cincinnati Bengals

25) Marcedes Lewis (TE, UCLA) Pittsburgh Steelers

26) Owen Daniels (TE, Wisconsin) to the Buffalo Bills

27) Antoine Bethea (CB, Howard) to the Carolina Panthers

32) Cortland Finnegan (CB, Sanford) to the New York Giants

What I think they are thinking (or should be) in the headquarters of the four AFC South teams after Week 16…

Houston Texans

We can’t undo those last two duds and while they killed momentum we’re still not in bad shape. Everyone’s going to write us off as one-and-done in the playoffs, and maybe that’s a better way for us to head into it than as a popular pick. We certainly have issues to iron out. Scoring is down 10 points per game since we lost quarterback Matt Schaub, which means the margin for error is down. The defense played poorly on Indianapolis’ game-winning drive, but before that it was fine. So we’ll maintain belief in our run game and defense and get Andre Johnson back — and we will be better than people expect going forward.

Indianapolis Colts

We’re not losing on purpose to ensure we get the No. 1 pick. Get that out of your head. Don’t allow oxygen to feed that flame anywhere. It’s utterly ridiculous. We’re professionals who are continuing to build resumes. If you think “lose-on-purpose” is the message trickling down from above, you’re nuts. If it was, and you think guys like Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Pat Angerer, Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark would fall in line with it, you’re also nuts. We’ve got a chance to carry a three-game win streak into the offseason, and that’s what we intend to do.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Let’s put the garbage to rest. We won’t be losing intentionally to the Colts to create the possibility that they don’t get the first overall pick in the draft so as to keep Andrew Luck out of the division. We aren’t paid to factor in long-term potential personnel developments. We are paid to prepare as best we can and do all we can to win football games. That’s what we will spend our week thinking about. Our secondary is in shambles. Theirs is too. We need to protect Blaine Gabbert and let him make some throws. We can also get Maurice Jones-Drew the rushing title, something the entire franchise will take a great deal of pride in.

Tennessee Titans

We can’t waste time or energy looking back on all the things we could have done to enhance our standing now. All we can do is go to Houston and beat the Texans, then hope we land in a three-way tie with Cincinnati and the Jets or Cincinnati and Oakland, because we’d win either of those to get the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs. We’ll enjoy Christmas anticipating a great week of work, a big result in our finale and a 9-7 record. And we will do all the wishing and praying possible for the other results that we need in order to get a return trip to Houston, which would be our wild-card round matchup.

INDIANAPOLIS -- It’s inexplicable, really.

Lose 13 in a row and look terrible while doing so. Then, follow it up with two wins in five days.

What the Colts have done is write just the sort of improbable storyline that makes us love the league.

Playing as they so often have with Peyton Manning engineering end-of-game magic, Indianapolis forged a penalty-aided 12-play, 78-yard touchdown drive in just 1 minute, 37 seconds that resulted in a 19-16 win over the Texans. The new AFC South champions from Houston had their best chance ever to win in this city, and they had a lead until the clock showed 19 seconds.

“I couldn’t be prouder of the way the men on this team played,” Colts center Jeff Saturday said. “You start out spotting them seven points, they’re the AFC South champions, they’ve got everything to play for and people would think we’ve got nothing. But the men on this team just kept fighting. We knew if we kept it close we’d have a chance late.”

Saturday, defensive end Robert Mathis and receiver Reggie Wayne played what could have been their last game as Colts in Indianapolis. Mathis had two sacks, forcing and recovering a fumble on one. And Wayne pulled in eight passes for 106 yards, including the 1-yard touchdown pass from Dan Orlovsky that won it.

It leaves Houston, 0-10 on the road against the Colts, in need of a good bit of help to fare better than the third seed in the AFC playoffs.

“We get some time here to regroup and go back home,” Texans tight end Owen Daniels said. “One more game left here and hopefully we can get some momentum back. It’s not a good feeling. There were a lot of opportunities for us to seal the game up offensively.”

“It’s a loss,” defensive end J.J. Watt said. “It’s a very, very tough loss. But at the end of the day, we’re still in the playoffs. We’re still going to make a very, very strong push in the playoffs. It’s tough. We’re going to learn from it. And then we’re going to move forward. It’s all we can do.”

The result may scramble the top of April’s draft order, and could have implications around the league for more than a decade if it helps St. Louis or Minnesota gain the first overall pick -- expected to be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts sit at 2-13, while the Rams and Vikings are at 2-12.

Before the game, owner Jim Irsay said on the NFL Network that provided Manning is healthy, he will be playing for the Colts in 2012. The team will also not hesitate to select a great young quarterback in the draft, Irsay said.

If they fall out of the first pick and lose their chance at Luck, the Colts will likely also miss out on Matt Barkley, who announced Thursday he’ll play his senior year at USC.

Saturday said he was glad to know Irsay said Manning would be in Indianapolis, health willing. Beyond that, all the speculation will come from beyond the Colts’ locker room.

“I ain’t worried a bit about the draft or any of it,” Saturday said. “I’ll let the Polians worry about that, that’s their job. My job is to win football games, that’s all I care about and that’s all they tell us to care about. I’ve never heard one person in this organization ever talk about what our draft is going to be the next year. Those guys plan for it, they’re going to do their best to get the best players in here. You’ll see what you get.”

Colts vice chairman Bill Polian talked in the last week about needing an infusion of young playmakers.

In a second consecutive game, this defense looked like it already has some of them.

Though the Colts allowed Arian Foster to romp for 158 rushing yards on 23 carries, including four runs of 18 yards or more, they did well bottling a lot of other things up. The Texans converted only 1 of 10 third downs, when just one more might have iced the game or positioned them to put it out of reach.

That one conversion was a fluke, too. Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates threw behind intended receiver Kevin Walter, who reached back for it but couldn’t pull it in. It bounced off safety Antoine Bethea’s back or shoulder not once, but twice, before Jacoby Jones plucked it for a 5-yard gain with less than 3 minutes remaining.

As it did in its 27-13 win over Tennessee, Indianapolis’ defense benefitted from overly conservative play-calling. The Colts saw a division opponent wary of their pass rush. Houston tried to win by playing it safe, and the Colts blew up that plan.

“The whole season we’ve kept on fighting, there was never a sense of giving up or a sense of backing down,” cornerback Jacob Lacey said. “We’ve rallied around each other.”

Big changes are still ahead, even if the Colts go to Jacksonville and win another game on New Year’s Day. With Christmas weekend free thanks to the schedule-makers, they can savor this one before thinking about that one and all that’s beyond it.

“I hope it’s not, but you never know,” Saturday said about the possibility it was his last game as with the Colts at home. “What a great night tonight with those guys. You don’t get many like this. So I’m treasuring it.”

INDIANAPOLIS – J.J. Watt is no-nonsense.

So after the Texans lost a 19-16 decision to the Colts on Thursday night, as he fielded questions about his large role in a bad penalty night for the Houston, he didn’t want to discuss nuance.

“No matter how they happen, you can’t get penalties,” the defensive end said following a game that included a sack, two tackles for loss and three batted passes. “They were called. That’s all I can say. The penalties were called, you can’t argue with the referee and we’ve got to move forward.”

The Texans were flagged for 11 penalties worth 84 yards and six first downs. Three more calls were declined.

Watt was flagged for illegal use of the hands — the penalty was declined — and a highly debatable roughing-the-passer call in the first half. Then he was called for illegal use of the hands and roughing the passer on a hit below the knees on consecutive plays during the Colts’ game-winning touchdown drive. The pair got Indianapolis 14 yards closer to the end zone and stopped the clock for a team with no timeouts.

“We hurt ourselves way too much all night long,” coach Gary Kubiak said, after doing his best to take the blame for a lack of discipline.

Watt was told he hit Dan Orlovsky in the helmet on the first roughing call. If he did, it was the sort of glancing, incidental touch that’s not supposed to be a penalty. Replays showed him tackling the quarterback right at the waist.

A fourth-quarter call against Indianapolis safety Antoine Bethea also elicited gasps from the crowd. Bethea crashed into Kevin Walter and was whistled for unnecessary roughness when he appeared to not even be trying to hit the receiver as he went for the ball. The resulting 15 yards helped move the Texans to a field goal that built their lead to 16-12.

"I was just trying to go for the ball and we collided. I guess I’ll be waiting on that FedEx on Wednesday," Bethea said, referring to how the league informs players of fines. "When they throw the flag, we’re not going to argue with it.”

Fan results are in for the NFL’s popularity contest -- I mean Pro Bowl fan voting.

Without any ado, here are AFC South players who finished in the top 5:

Running backs: 1) Arian Foster; 2) Maurice Jones-Drew.

Fullbacks: 4) James Casey.

Tight ends: 3) Owen Daniels.

Centers: 5) Jeff Saturday.

Defensive ends: 2) Dwight Freeney; 4) Robert Mathis; 5) Antonio Smith.

Inside linebacker: 2) Pat Angerer; 5) Brian Cushing.

Free safety: 4) Antoine Bethea.

Kicker: 5) Neil Rackers.

That’s it. That’s the list.

Angerer did very well on a team with the worst record in the NFL. He's the surprise here, and worthy of his standing.

Fan voting counts a third toward the creation of the Pro Bowl teams, as does the vote of coaches and players.

Results come out Tuesday and we will cover it thoroughly.

John Lloyd from Yulee, Fla., writes: I count 24 players on jag IR. How did you get 27?

Paul Kuharsky: They placed a couple on IR that they eventually reached a settlement with. That means they can release those players while they're still injured. So they disappeared from the roster. But their seasons ended when they were put on IR.

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Jason from Philadelphia writes: You get 10 Colts players to keep next year, who are they? Top 5 in order, 6-10 doesn't have to be. Manning doesn't count. Freeney Mathis Castonzo Bethea Nevis Angerer Ijalana Wayne Clark Collie. Picked the tackles and Nevis because they are new draft picks and have shown promise when healthy. I've always stayed positive but that list was harder than I thought it would be. The talent level has really dropped off. I almost put McAfee in there.

Paul Kuharsky: OK, Manning doesn’t count and I am really concentrating on having the best team I can next year. I’ve changed this a bit from when I emailed you back.

I’d go: Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pat Angerer, Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana, Drake Nevis and Jerraud Powers. Donald Brown just missed. I think he can actually run and will get out of the doghouse if there is a new regime. I think Dallas Clark's injuries are starting to mount and I don’t know if you can expect anything close to a full season from him.

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Jimmy Bagley from Philly, Pa., writes: Looking at your rankings, I am trying to figure out why you have Houston so low.... Why wouldn't they be at the number 4 spot? Green Bay, obviously number one with a bullet. Baltimore, number two ok. N.O. should be 3 and the Texans at 4... At this point in the season, why aren't the tie breakers used to figure these in.... Houston holds the tie breaker over both Pit and NE.... They were the first team in the AFC to clinch, and have the best divisional record of all the teams.... Not to mention the number 2 defense in the league and a top 3 running game.... They have managed to win in all types of circumstances.... After last week’s come from behind win I thought for sure it would win over critics waiting for them to choke... What else is going to take for the respect to come in.

Paul Kuharsky: What you are looking for, apparently, is the official playoff order for the league right now. (If we do that, what’s the point?) What the power rankings are looking for is my opinion on where teams stand. The official playoff rankings of the moment don’t take into account a third-string quarterback as the starter. No matter how impressive T.J. Yates has been, we have a very small sample size so far. And I have a tough time ranking a team he’s leading ahead of one led by Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, who’ve won Super Bowls. The one case you can make is that the Texans should be ahead of Pittsburgh based on having beaten them. But the Steelers are a much better team now than they were then.

Also you suggest I should rank the Texans higher because they clinched earlier and have a better division record. So they get a reward for the Colts and Jaguars stinking and the Titans being average?

I have Houston sixth. I think we differ on whether that’s good or bad. I think it’s quite good.

I am continually amazed by how people regard the issue of respect. I think, universally, analysts are impressed by what the Texans have done and think they are a very good team. Apparently some of you think we should be holding parades for them and telecasting half-hour specials about their greatness.

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Scott Freistat from Hermitage, Tenn., writes: ESPN's latest ranking poll states that if the playoffs were to start today (12/13) the Texans would have the No. 1 seed. How is that possible considering they have the same records as the Ravens (10-3) and the Ravens own the head-to-head matchup? Please explain.

Paul Kuharsky: In a three-way tie, head-to-head results aren’t the top tiebreaker because it does nothing to factor in the third team. The Ravens win a tiebreaker over the Steelers being from same division. Then it’s Texans-Ravens-Patriots. If one team has swept the other two, it wins a tiebreaker. If not, then it’s conference record. The Texans win that right now.

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Brian Vining from Douglas, Ga., writes: Who is Matt Williamson? So I guess this so called expert wants to give up on a first round QB who has no weapons except for Maurice jones-Drew. Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year. He is a young QB who needs time to develop. With a good coach and a couple of WR who can catch the ball Gabbert will be great. I'm not saying the Jags is the best out of the three but if I were a coach and could go to a team with a young up and coming QB. A great RB in MJD and a much improved defense I would jump on it. That's not even to mention Gene Smith who has the right philosophy to build a team who can contend for years. National media at it again. Gabbert sucks, the Jags can't fill the stadium, Jags are moving to LA. Maybe if some of them would actually do a little homework they would know none of this is true.

Paul Kuharsky: Williamson is a former NFL scout who knows as much about current personnel as anyone in my business.

Your logic falls apart here: “Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year.” Then why is he the starter this year? Nothing catostrophic happened. The team chose to cut David Garrard and it chose to bench Luke McCown. Those moves made Gabbert the starter. If you don’t want him starting, arrange for him not to start. I don’t know how we can say he was not supposed to start and offer amnesty based on that. They are starting him. As promising as Gabbert may be, it’s not at all inaccurate to say he’s been horrible this season.

I like Smith, but the rebuild is not moving at a fast enough pace. His philosophy starts with foundation-building and two good lines. Three years in, I don’t see two good lines, do you? And where is anything close to a late-round home run?

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Mike M. from Houston writes: The next man up approach only works if the next man up has talent. The Texans have shown that they have talent beyond the 22 starters on the roster. Most have been draft picks, UDFA's, or were low level free agents when acquired (like Kevin Walter or Jason Allen). Does this make Rick Smith the front runner for executive of the year???

Paul Kuharsky: That’s an excellent point, that the next man up has to be equipped to do the job. Lots of teams without good depth get hurt and fall apart.

But let’s not make it like Rick Smith is at the powerful end of the spectrum of GMs in terms of decision-making. It’s a joint operation and he’s not bringing in anyone Gary Kubiak doesn’t sign off on. Wade Phillips had great influence on what they did in the draft and then free agency as well.

My anti-Pro Bowl stance has been spelled out in this space multiple times, and I’ve avoided updates on fan voting until now.

But since fan voting ends soon, I figured I’d offer a look of where AFC South players stand. Titans fans will be unhappy as they have no one in the top five anywhere. But who's deserving, really?

Here's everyone from the division who ranks in the top five at his position:

• Running back: 1. Arian Foster; 2. Maurice Jones-Drew.
• Fullback: 5. James Casey.
• Tight end: 3. Owen Daniels.
• Center: 5. Jeff Saturday.
• Defensive end: 2. Dwight Freeney; 3. Robert Mathis; 4. Antonio Smith.
• Inside linebacker: 2. Pat Angerer; 4. Brian Cushing.
• Free safety: 4. Antoine Bethea.
• Kicker: 4. Neil Rackers; 5. Josh Scobee.

Fan voting counts for one third of the results and runs through Dec. 19. Player voting and coach voting comes later and holds similar weight.

Ultimately remember this: With the Super Bowl participants uninvolved in the game and injured guys and superstars dropping out, a whole bunch of guys who are hardly all-stars will be part of it.

It’s ugly in Indianapolis.

At 0-7, the Colts are talking about sticking together, improving and giving themselves a chance to win.

But as they prepare for a trip to Nashville for a Sunday meeting with the Titans at LP Field, they are a severely broken team. Where they would be with Peyton Manning is an interesting hypothetical question, but we’re dealing with realities. And those realities are the sort that will test the franchise’s stitching -- seamwork that might not hold together when this is all over.

Who’s at fault? Everyone’s got a hand in it, but let’s look at the Colts from a couple of angles.

A big cover-up: It’s not a secret that Manning has helped cover up a lot of flaws and allowed the franchise to under-address certain areas.

The Colts during the Manning era have never been much concerned with size, always valuing speed and instincts more. They’ve never worried about stocking special teams with any veteran backups, in part because they spend their money on stars or adding a high-quality return man. They’ve settled for being below average running the ball. And they’ve won despite a general inability to stop the run.

Without their four-time MVP running the offense, all those things are magnified in ways they’ve never been before.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re built to have Manning at the controls, and he’s been there all the time from the very beginning in 1998 until opening day this season.

There are maybe two teams and markets in the league that would not trade for what the Colts have done since 1999. Twelve consecutive playoff seasons followed by one complete dud? Where do I sign up for that?

Construct questions: That said, regardless of a serious neck surgery to the star quarterback, what exactly was the plan in the secondary? Is an evaluation that leaves Jacob Lacey, Terrence Johnson, Kevin Thomas and Chris Rucker as cornerbacks Nos. 2 through 5 good enough? Absolutely not.

The Colts get credit for adding a couple of outside veterans this season -- linebacker Ernie Sims, and defensive ends Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton. But the drafting has dropped off.

Set aside the most recent class, as it’s too early to judge.

The Colts drafted 41 players from 2005 through 2010. I count one star, safety Antoine Bethea, and two guys who can become stars, linebacker Pat Angerer and receiver Austin Collie (if he’s working with Manning). Running back Joseph Addai is a good fit who does more than people think. And receiver Pierre Garcon and cornerback Jerraud Powers have been pretty solid starters.

Sure, the Colts drafted higher in the five years before. Still, those classes produced five guys who rank among the best players of their generation at their positions: tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, safety Bob Sanders, and receiver Reggie Wayne. The next tier provided steady starters on the offensive line (Jake Scott, Ryan Diem) and at linebacker (David Thornton).

That list is more than a third of a starting team, a big-time core. As those guys age or disappear, I'm not seeing a core in waiting.

Colts president-turned-vice chairman Bill Polian said recently on his radio show that they needed to have done better recently, particularly at defensive tackle and cornerback.

And there is a domino effect to the problem. Find Tarik Glenn’s ultimate replacement at left tackle in 2007, and you don’t need to use your top pick in 2011 on Anthony Castonzo. Hit on Donald Brown in the first round in 2009, and Delone Carter might not be necessary in the fourth round in 2011.

The Polians: Bill Polian has been pulling back and yielding responsibility to his son, GM Chris Polian. (Chris politely declined to be interviewed for this story.)

We don’t yet have much tape on Chris Polian, so to speak. Bill Polian is a good talent evaluator who has had success in three NFL stops and has done well to build a team with which Manning has won. But Bill Polian also has overseen those recent draft drop-offs.

His strong-willed personality is part of what has made him good at his job, and his big-picture assessment of important league issues is as intelligent as anyone’s. He’s got clout and influence that extend beyond Indianapolis.

Stylistically, he’s a stubborn and demanding boss. There are indications from within that, without the steady stream of personnel hits he provided earlier in his tenure, some inside the building are tiring of the way things are run.

Bill Polian recently talked about how Curtis Painter's play vindicates the team for having faith in him, but failed to mention that faith was so strong that the team signed Kerry Collins to a $4 million contract shortly before the season started and handed him the starting job.

I suspect Bill Polian has the backing of owner Jim Irsay for as long as he wants it. That would ensure safety for Chris Polian, too.

Bill Polian made the Manning-over-Ryan Leaf call in 1998. Because of the way Leaf busted, people forget that was a coin flip at the time, that Leaf was regarded as a big-time prospect just as much as Manning was. Polian called it correctly, built a team that’s been to two Super Bowls and won one, got a new stadium built, and greatly enhanced the value of Irsay’s franchise.

Cryptic messages: Further complicating things is Irsay, who clearly gets a kick out of being the center of NFL attention in the Twitter-verse but has undermined some of his people with it.

He announced the team added Collins while coach Jim Caldwell was conducting his daily news conference. It did Caldwell no favors, as he appeared completely out of the loop.

Most recently, following the 62-7 loss in New Orleans on Sunday night, Irsay provided this gem:

“Titanic collapse, apologies 2 all ColtsNation...problems identifiable;solutions in progress but complex in nature/ better days will rise again”

A day later, he added:

"Just because you perceive problems on the horizon,and you possess solutions..doesn't mean they are avoidable and implementation is instant"

Solutions in progress, but complex in nature. That sounds to me like what would be written in big silver letters on the lobby wall of a consulting company on a TV show. Or a clever, but far-too-long name for a band.

It also sounds like change is going to come.

Coaching questions: While Bill Polian recently said that adding Jim Tressel to the staff as a replay consultant was Caldwell’s idea, it’s a weird-looking move that’s made some of us wonder whether a bigger role awaits the former Ohio State coach.

Caldwell does a nice job managing personalities, looking at things philosophically and staying on message. I believe he’s a good teacher, and his patient, quiet style is generally healthy for a team with a good share of veteran stars.

But he has blind spots, too, and is hardly a strategy master. There are bound to be significant changes at the conclusion of what’s sure to be a dreadful season, and he’ll be at the front of the line.

If he does the best job we can remember at holding a terrible, ineffective team together, is that enough? I’d guess not.

Injuries: This team gets hurt too much. There is a huge element of bad luck to it, of course. But is there something bigger at work as well?

Last season as quality players went down, Manning helped some role players such as tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Blair White emerge. This season, guys such as linebacker Gary Brackett and safety Melvin Bullitt were lost for the season early, and there's been a revolving door on the offensive line because of injuries.

The Colts are constantly testing their depth and shuffling the back end of their roster. There is only so much shuffling a depth chart can handle.

I believe they need to attempt some change that might have a positive effect on their overall health -- whether it be adopting new training philosophies, altering how they evaluate prospects or changing personnel philosophies.

It's easy to ask them to figure out why they tend to suffer so many injuries, and it's hard to find an answer. But some sort of shift is due, even as we know it comes with no guarantee of better health.

When the current approach is failing, it's OK to try something else. It's not admitting some sort of failure; it's merely part of a necessary process of evaluating and revising operations.

Suck for Luck: Given a chance to draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, I think the Colts would. Bill Polian can give Chris Polian the guy expected to be the NFL's next great quarterback, and Chris Polian's legacy would be built on a fantastic cornerstone.

But there is no losing on purpose to get in position for Luck. You think Wayne or Mathis is interested in such a master plan?

Said veteran center and team tone-setter Jeff Saturday: “I'll steal a Robert Mathis quote: 'I ain't sucking for anybody.'”

Coach Jim Caldwell’s future will be a topic of debate into January.

One thing that won’t be used against him is a fractured locker room, according to free safety Antoine Bethea.

“Coach Caldwell, he’s done a great job keeping us together and level-headed,” Bethea said. “It’s a long season. Tough times don’t last, but tough people do. We’re 0-6, but I don’t think that lasts forever.”

Bethea also offered some insight about how an awful start affects veterans on a team that’s used to being 6-0 at this stage.

I asked if it was depressing.

“It’s not depressing at all,” he said. “It’s still a game. There is more to life than just a football game. To come in and be depressed, that’s not a good word to use. We’re frustrated of course.

“We know the game can be taken away at any time, by injury, by anything. We’re blessed to be in a situation where we are playing ball and have jobs we love. We’re going to keep fighting, and playing hard.”

Antoine Bethea is surrounded by nobodies.

Jerraud Powers is a good corner who’s going to be a factor for a while, but he’s got a bad hamstring.

Everyone else in the Indianapolis Colts’ secondary is hardly noteworthy.

Yet Bethea is playing as effectively as a free safety in such circumstances can, a true pro who won’t allow his game to be influenced by such circumstances.

Quarterbacks are completing 69.9 percent of their passes against Indianapolis. They have a 104.0 passer rating and a 70 QBR (out of 100), the 31st worst number in the league.

I’m not sure what Indianapolis’ plan for the secondary was this season. When they let cornerback Kelvin Hayden go because he cost too much, one had to believe the Colts felt confident in the alternatives. Then Justin Tryon, who was an effective player last season, fell out of favor and wound up getting cut. The No. 2 corner, Jacob Lacey, is no longer a full-timer in the base defense with Terrence Johnson getting some time in the spot.

The Colts are playing David Caldwell at strong safety in the base defense and Joe Lefeged in the spot in the nickel.

Corner Chris Rucker is also seeing some action.

“As a veteran back there, I see myself as the glue,” Bethea said. “One of my roles is to get everybody lined up and confident. As a safety, that’s my job.”

Bethea said he likes the way the Colts are deploying their other safeties, using Caldwell (“He lays the boom”) against the run and Lefeged (“He plays the ball well”) in passing situations. In time each may be well-rounded enough to be a full-timer, but for right now splitting the job between them is a smart approach.

Bethea is backing his guys, but neither has been great since Melvin Bullitt was lost for the year with a shoulder injury.

Bethea said the young corners need to play technique, show improvement week by week and be sure not to repeat the same mistakes.

The Tryon situation was business, and players can’t spend time questioning a front office decision. Bethea is great at focusing on his stuff and his guys. He said that although 0-5 is a miserable place, no matter where the team goes moving forward we will not see the sort of fissures that often open on struggling teams.

As for being surrounded by unproven guys ...

“You can’t let other people affect how you play,” Bethea said matter-of-factly. “How you play is how you play, how you study is how you study. If my play goes down because there are different players around me, it says guys can’t look up to me. They need to see 41 flying around, playing hard, making plays.”