AFC South: Barry Sanders

Arian Foster won the rushing title for a bad 6-10 team that gave up a lot of points.

This left me wondering how difficult -- and perhaps uncommon -- it is for the league’s most productive running back to come from a losing team that spent a fair share of time playing from behind and needing to throw the ball.

The answer, from Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info, is that it’s not all that uncommon.

Here is a list of the running backs since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 who have won the league’s rushing total despite playing on a losing team.


A few points:
  • It’s a lot rarer if your name isn’t OJ Simpson or Barry Sanders.
  • Foster was just the fourth back to do it under the current playoff format, installed in 1990.
  • Foster was just the sixth back to do it since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.

By Football Outsiders’s adjusted numbers Insider, Foster was still the best running back in the NFL. (Also mentioned here: Austin Collie and Randy Moss, both in not great ways.)

Other Foster notes on a truly remarkable season:
  • His 1,616 rushing yards were the most by an undrafted player in NFL history, topping Priest Holmes 1,615 for Kansas City in 2002.
  • He is the third player in NFL history to record 1,600 or more rushing yards and 600 or more receiving yards in a season. He finished the year with 1,616 rushing yards and 604 receiving yards. The others were LaDainian Tomlinson (1,645 and 725 in 2003) and Holmes (1,615 and 672 in 2002).
  • He won the title over Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles by 149 yards.
  • He tied Tennessee’s Chris Johnson with eight 100-yard games.
  • His 231-yard effort in the season opener versus Indianapolis (9/12) was the best in the league, and his 180-yard performance against Jacksonville (1/2) was the fourth-best individual rushing game of the season.

Arian Foster's numbers in context

September, 13, 2010
9/13/10
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A rundown of all the amazing things we can say aboutArian Foster’s opening day, when he took 33 carries 231 yards and scored three touchdowns:
  • Foster’s 231 yards amount to the biggest total a Texans' back has ever posted in the team’s first three games. Steve Slaton had 192 in 2008, Domanick Williams had 188 in 2005 and Williams had 177 in 2004. (ESPN Stats & Info.)
  • Foster is first player in NFL history to rush for 200 yards and three touchdowns on Kickoff Weekend. (From @nflfootballinfo.)
  • Foster is on pace to run for 3,696 yards and 48 touchdowns. (From @bnickelsun.)
  • Foster's 231 rushing yards were the most ever allowed by the Colts from a single back. The previous high was Barry Sanders' 216 in 1997.
  • Foster's 231 rushing yards were the second-most ever on opening day. O.J. Simpson had 250 in 1973.
  • It was the 23rd-best rushing performance in NFL history. (Texans PR.)
  • Foster had 191 rushing yards in the second half. There were 26 teams in the league that totaled fewer rushing yards for the day, with two games remaining. (Texans PR.)

Johnson tops 2,000-yard plateau

January, 3, 2010
1/03/10
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Chris JohnsonAP Photo/John FroschauerChris Johnson becomes the sixth player in NFL history to go over 2,000 yards rushing.
SEATTLE -- The packaging wasn’t what he wanted.

How great would it have been to go over 2,000 rushing yards on the season with a 62-yard touchdown sprint?

It got called back on a debatable holding call and Chris Johnson had to join an exclusive club weaving together smaller runs, with nothing longer than 12 yards, during a 17-13 win over the Seahawks.

The hosts managed to prevent the big play, keeping Johnson away from Eric Dickerson’s all-time record, but allowed him to become the sixth running back to reach the magical number.

It took 36 carries, seven more than he’s ever had before, for him to get to 134 rushing yards and a season total of 2,006. That is the fifth-best ever, ahead of O.J. Simpson’s 2,003 in 1973.

He was already talking about targeting Dickerson’s 1984 record 2,105 yards next year, a season Vince Young said won’t end until the Super Bowl.

“I didn’t get the record (this) year, so that’s what’s next for me,” Johnson said. “That would be my goal coming into next year. That would be something I can work hard for.”

Based in the Bible Belt, Johnson has spent his second season converting a lot of football people. He’s got swagger. He’s got a sense of humor. And, having talked about 2,000 yards back in training camp, he’s got the right to predict the outlandish without drawing raised eyebrows and scoffs.

Johnson thinks he can beat Usain Bolt over 40 yards, because Bolt’s best work in the 100 comes after that. Go ahead and laugh. That’s what everyone did when he talked 2,000 back in July or August.

(A bit of context: Johnson finished second in a Florida state high school final to Walter Dix in the 100-meter dash, and Dix finished third behind Bolt in the Beijing Olympics. And again, we’re talking 40 not 100.)

“He set a goal and people kind of laughed it off,” Titans tight end Alge Crumpler said. “And every week as we got closer and closer people realized it was attainable. I’m proud of him.”

Johnson just ran for 2,000 yards for an 8-8 team, a team that started 0-6 and trailed by enough often enough that running plays on offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger’s play sheet should have been crumpled up and tossed in a sideline garbage can.

The club he joined, for reference: Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and Simpson.

Now, with your permission, I will meander a bit rather than take the straight line Johnson prefers.

Called back

Just before he got to 2,000, Johnson had one of his signature breakaway runs -- darting through the line, he left the people chasing him looking like they were in slow motion as he went those 62 yards.

But fullback Ahmard Hall was called for a hold of linebacker David Hawthorne.

Referee Ed Hochuli said he had no question about throwing the flag.

“The ruling was that he hooked him with both arms at the point of attack, and pulled away from where the ball carried ran right by him,” Hochuli told a pool reporter.

But Hawthorne said while he was happy for the flag, he didn’t know it involved him until a couple reporters surrounded him when the locker room opened.

“You just told me,” he said.

Hall was surprised by the call and said it’s a block he makes all the time.

Tennessee’s veteran center Kevin Mawae talked with Hochuli about it and the ref said he wouldn’t have called it unless it was legit.

“My opinion now, not talking bad about the referee because I don’t want to get fined, but unless it’s just so blatant and a takedown, you’ve got to just let the guy go,” Mawae said. “We’re on the cusp of breaking an all-time record and to have it take away like that is just disappointing.”

It’s hard to know what unfolds from there if the 62-yard run stood. Take away the six yards Johnson was credited with on that play, the eight additional yards he gained on that drive and figure he would have had at least 48 more than he finished with. That gets him within 51 yards of Dickerson and puts him third all-time.

And if Dickerson was in range at the end, Mawae said Jeff Fisher would have allowed for more carries at the end of the game instead of instructing Vince Young to kneel down twice to run out the clock.

A young face of the league

By all accounts including mine, Johnson’s a good guy. If you’re scared off by gold teeth or dreads or less than perfect grammar, you’re missing out on friendly and funny.

Peyton Manning’s not vacating any major endorsement slots anytime soon, but should Johnson be near the front of the line of the next wave of marketable NFL stars?

“I feel I should,” he said from behind a podium under Qwest Field, a sparkling cross hanging over a sharp purple, silver and white tie loose at the collar under a gray vest. “I don’t know if any back has done it in two years. That’s what any guy wants to plays any sport. They want to be the next Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant or whoever you want to name. They want to be that guy.”

His name doesn’t sing. But Crumpler said he doesn’t see an Average Joe moniker slowing down the running back.

“If you can get a Chad Johnson that level of attention, you can get it for Chris Johnson,” Crumpler said.

Said Hall: “With the braids and everything, a lot of people try to stereotype him. He’s a good guy. He’s a great guy. He doesn’t get in trouble. He’s never been in trouble. He definitely should be up there with the rest of the guys as a face of the league, according to his accomplishments.”

A special line on a resume

Mawae has played in 241 games in 16 seasons and been named to seven Pro Bowl teams.

The big hole in his career is the Super Bowl, and he still expects to get to one.

At this point, though, where does being part of the line that blocked for one of just six 2,000 yards back in history rank for him? What slot on his NFL resume should it occupy?

“This would probably have to be No. 1 right now,” he said. “No. 2 is winning the rushing title in 2003 (with the Jets and Curtis Martin).”

Johnson doesn’t know that yet, and I’m certain he will be flattered by it. As the Titans go through a Monday meeting and take exit physicals, Mawae said he expects there will be a moment he will let the running back know how he feels about what he did.

Others will too.

While they have several alternates that will likely get to the game, Johnson’s the only Pro Bowler now. He once promised cars to his linemen if he got to 2,000, then quickly backed off. But premium gifts have been purchased and will be presented Monday.

And he’s inviting them all to join him at the Pro Bowl, though he’s unsure how many will accept and be with him in Miami.

The next big number

Hold 2,106, Johnson’s yardage, up against $560,000, his scheduled base salary for next year, and even the staunchest opponent of contract renegotiation might allow agent Joel Segal to broach the topic.

Johnson’s also slated for $800,000 in 2011 and his base should jump from $960,000 to $2.5 million in 2012 because of an escalator.

The 24th pick in the 2008 draft is outperforming his five-year, $12 million deal, with $7 million guaranteed, but that’s what the Titans get for being smart enough to draft him.

Running backs have short life spans, Segal knows. If Johnson waits for his sixth year to get what he’s worth, odds are he won’t be worth it any more. Still it’s awfully early for any renegotiation.

“We’ve talked about that, about the money situation,” Hall said. “I think he and his agent will handle that well, but I don’t think the team will want to risk anything with CJ. I think he’s the best running back in the league right now as far as production goes.

“I think both sides will handle it well and get something done, because you definitely don’t want to break up this chemistry that’s going on with CJ. …He’s outplayed the contract and I think he deserves more money.”

General manager Mike Reinfeldt said the Titans haven’t even begun to ponder such things.

“He’s had a very special year,” Reinfeldt said. “But it’s also very rare that going into the third year people redo a deal.”

A look at Johnson's pace

November, 18, 2009
11/18/09
1:43
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Chris Johnson’s pace is a big topic, and if he keeps it up he'll finish with 1,940 yards. Eric Dickerson set the league record with 2,105 yards in 1984 with the L.A. Rams.


Johnson

Here are the current standings of the rushing defenses CJ will face the rest of the way:

  • Houston: 14 (tied)
  • Arizona: 8
  • Indianapolis: 14 (tied)
  • St. Louis: 28
  • Miami: 7
  • San Diego: 23
  • Seattle: 11

According to ESPN Stats & Information, he’s also on pace for the highest yards per carry for a primary running back with at least 100 carries in NFL history.


And his 631 yards in his last three games rate as the fifth-best three-game rushing binge in league history: Deuce McAllister had 665 in 2003, Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes each had 643 in 2001 and Tiki Barber has 641 in 2005.

A sleepy Johnson told Dan Patrick he doesn’t get caught from behind, after a game he hurts all over, he thought Bud Adams’ salute reflected the Titans’ attitude and Vince Young’s brought the Titans some swagger.

Here’s a link to the interview courtesy of Sports Radio Interviews.

Run records for Jags, good and bad

November, 1, 2009
11/01/09
8:49
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Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Two piece of context for you on the Jaguars run defense and run offense efforts Sunday in the 30-13 loss to the previously winless Titans.
  • Jack Del Rio said the effort “completely catches me off guard” and did his best to fall on the sword as he talked about how the Jags “allow[ed] a team to basically cram it down our throats.” Of course the coach wasn’t sliding off Chris Johnson as the back shredded his defense for 228 yards. The Titans now have the two most prolific rushing days against the Jaguars in their history -- 305 today and 282 on Sept. 9, 2007.
  • With his 80- and 79-yard touchdown runs, Maurice Jones-Drew became just the third player in NFL history to have two scoring runs of 75 yards or more in the same game. Barry Sanders did it Oct. 12, 1997 and Frank Gore did it Sept. 20, 2009.

Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky


Good running teams get stopped for a loss less often than bad running teams.

I knew it wouldn’t stand to figure so simply when I decided to look at whether runs for losses indicated anything last season. After talking with Jeff Fisher about it, I changed the number I looked at to the percentage of runs for losses.

Still, I found the results surprising. (Thanks to ESPN Stats and Information for putting this chart together.)
Rushes For Negative Yards
Team Total
Rushes
Neg.
Rushes
Pct. Rushing rk.
New England Patriots 489 26 5.32 6
San Diego Chargers 411 24 5.84 20
Washington Redskins 464 29 6.25 8
New York Jets 412 26 6.31 9
Cleveland Browns 403 26 6.45 26
Oakland Raiders 457 33 7.22 10
Baltimore Ravens 571 45 7.88 4
Atlanta Falcons 538 43 7.99 2
Jacksonville Jaguars 416 34 8.17 18
Chicago Bears 426 35 8.22 24
Dallas Cowboys 387 32 8.27 21
Denver Broncos 372 31 8.33 12
Buffalo Bills 426 36 8.45 14
Houston Texans 423 36 8.51 13
New Orleans Saints 388 33 8.51 28
Miami Dolphins 432 39 9.03 11
San Francisco 49ers 386 36 9.33 27
Philadelphia Eagles 412 39 9.47 22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 441 42 9.52 15
Arizona Cardinals 324 32 9.88 32
New York Giants 484 48 9.92 1
Green Bay Packers 427 43 10.07 17
Cincinnati Bengals 410 42 10.24 29
Kansas City Chiefs 372 39 10.48 16
Carolina Panthers 487 53 10.88 3
Minnesota Vikings 507 56 11.05 5
Pittsburgh Steelers 446 50 11.21 23
St. Louis Rams 410 49 11.95 25
Tennessee Titans 491 59 12.02 7
Seattle Seahawks 414 52 12.56 19
Indianapolis Colts 356 47 13.2 31
Detroit Lions 351 48 13.68 30
Note: Kneel-downs were not included in either category.

The league’s worst rushing team, Arizona, got hit for a loss on 9.88 percent of its runs. The league’s top rushing team, the Giants, got hit for a loss on 9.92 percent of its runs.

And the two teams that absorbed losses the highest percent of the time, the Colts and Titans were far different run teams: The Titans ranked seventh and were regarded as one of the best, the Colts ranked 31st and were better than only Detroit.

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said he wasn’t surprised to see how this chart looked and hit on the two points you’d expect.

“It generally tells us two things: the style of the running back, and the quality of the offensive line,” he said. “In general, better offensive lines will allow fewer negative rushes. We know that the Colts had massive run-blocking problems last year, especially when Jeff Saturday was injured, and it isn't a surprise to see them so high.

“In addition, shiftier running backs tend to have more negative rushes than straight-ahead downhill backs (the Barry Sanders effect). I'm guessing that's the reason why Carolina, which was excellent run-blocking last year, is higher up in negative rushes than you might expect. Same with Tennessee, where Chris Johnson is a pretty shifty-style guy.”

So what do teams think about runs for negative yards? Is it something that has to be accepted when you are determined to run?

“If you’re going to be a good run team, you’re going to have to hand the ball off, you’re going to have to have numbers,” Fisher said. “And so the more numbers, the more attempts you have the more likelihood you have for runs for loss.”

But even after accounting for the runs for losses as a share of the total runs, the Titans rank high. By Schatz’s thinking, a good offensive line can be offset by a shifty runner like Johnson, who may swing and miss sometimes but is also more likely to get extra base hits.

“They’re going to happen, Fisher said of tackles in the backfield. “You have to be able to overcome them. You can’t allow them to affect your play calling. You have to stick with it, that’s just how it is. When you’re a good running team, people are going to stack the line of scrimmage, they are going to penetrate and you’re going to have some issues.”

In Houston, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said he and the offensive staff think bad runs should be, at worst, good for no gain.

“Even when you are not getting five yards a carry you have to stick with it in order to get one safety defenses,” Shanahan said. “You don’t want to throw against cover 2 every play and have the defensive line tee off on you or that’s a pick or a sack waiting to happen...

“Our thing is even when it’s a bad run, we don’t want to lose any yards. If it’s a run and we don’t block for any, that back needs to get zero to one yard. At least get us in second-and-nine. As soon as you get us into second-and-12, the odds are you’re going to punt.”
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky

In March, we see everything cut into 64 pieces and put into brackets, breakfast cereals formatted to mimic college basketball.

In April, we don't do brackets, we do drafts.

And so here is ESPN.com's Mock Draft for the Ages. Every college prospect ever was available -- strip him of what he did as a pro. Using this year's draft order and needs, Page 2 made the picks. My part was simply offering comment on the AFC South picks.

You have to click to see who went where, but as you suspend your disbelief, prepare to see Calvin Johnson, Barry Sanders and Steve Emtman join the division and Earl Campbell resurface -- OK, we'll give that one away, same city, different franchise.

Sidenote: Don't miss Mike Sando's read on O.J. Simpson to Seattle. Classic stuff.

Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky

Fred Taylor deserves a better exit, and I hope he gets to make one.

The Jaguars officially put him on injured reserve Thursday with a thumb injury, and they could decide they want to turn more over to Maurice Jones-Drew and pair him with a younger back next year.

 
 Matthew Emmons/US Presswire
 Fred Taylor has 11,271 career rushing yards and 62 rushing touchdowns, all with the Jaguars.

Taylor is a class act and a real pro. Way back in 1999 and 2000, when I covered the Titans for the Tennessean, he repeatedly gave us fodder on conference calls because he could just not get himself to admit the Titans were the better team in Tennessee's Super Bowl season, when they handed the Jaguars their only three losses. Samari Rolle and Jevon Kearse and Keith Bulluck always joked about that unwillingness to concede and talked about him with the sort of cross-rivalry affection that made us figure he had to be a special kind of guy.

This year, my first tracking the entire division, I got to have a couple of long talks with him during training camp and I visited with him after wins and losses. He's a stand-up, no-excuses, candid guy who front office types, coaches, the media and fans wish would rub off on a larger percentage of the NFL player pool.

He's been something to watch, too.

This year, when I've had the good fortune to see a good share of the work of Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton, Taylor's ridiculous 34-yard run in Week 3 at Indy may still rank as the best I have seen live.

Here's what I wrote in my game-column blog that afternoon:

• Taylor's third-quarter 34-yard run that set up Jones-Drew's second touchdown was something to behold.

He started right, benefited from a block in the pack that kept Marlin Jackson from getting his hands on him, bounced backwards and headed left. As he turned the corner, he unsuccessfully tried to set up a block by Garrard, then just flew past him and found room up the left sideline where you would have expected there was none.

"That's how long it was?" he said when asked about it. "It felt like it was about 150. Foremost, they slanted that way. Naturally if I see a lot of the different color going that way, I've got to go opposite.

"Fortunately the linemen kept pushing, I was able to hop out of an ankle tackle, went around. David was trying to lead me, that didn't work, and then I just put my foot down and went North and teammates, they just kept coming, showing great effort. Next thing you know I am 34 yards down the field."

Simple, see?

(Read full post)

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