ESPN NFL

Saturday’s mailbag led with a note from a frustrated Jags fan.

It was such a big hit, I thought we’d give a frustrated Texans fan a chance.

LX Aguirre from El Paso writes: Will the Houston Texans show some signs of intelligence any time soon???? After their first playoff appearance and a small taste of victory on wildcard weekend, I expected more from them. The only moves they've made so far were the retention of Myers and Foster. You may reason that the team's inactivity is due to salary cap issues, but that excuse becomes irrelevant when the team is willing to trade its Defensive Captain and lose money in the process. The betrayal to DeMeco was magnified because the team had just lost M. Williams, the most powerful defensive weapon; and the lopsided trade showed that management has a disregard for team continuity, fan loyalty, and esprit de corps. For the Texans, continuity involves getting rid of their good players like Williams and D. Ryans (Pollard, Leach, Robinson in previous years) while stubbornly holding on to unproductive failures like J. Jones, K. Jackson (ESPECIALLY KAREEM JACKSON!!!!), and Quinn. With Manning gone, the division is almost a guarantee, but the Texans will lose the crown this year because of indecisiveness and lack of aggression.

Paul Kuharsky: I am taking a deep breath … OK, I am ready.

Has it been a good offseason? Of course not. But good teams tend to be up against it financially and lose good players. They took an additional $750,000 loss on Ryans this year to save a ton of money over the next three years. That money will help them be able to sign guys like Duane Brown and Connor Barwin, and prevent you from ripping them next year for not holding the team together.

DeMeco Ryans was a great leader, but no longer a very good player. He wasn’t even on the field for 60 percent of the team’s defensive plays. You think they’d have been sitting him so often if he was great for them?

You wanted them to keep Bernard Pollard, who couldn’t cover, and Vonta Leach, who got way too much money and plays one-third of the snaps, and Dunta Robinson, who was not close to worth what Atlanta gave him? I’d argue that you are being too emotional.

Glover Quin (with one N) is a good player, I don’t know why you would lump him in with Jacoby Jones and Kareem Jackson. Do they like those two guys too much? Sure. But it’s too early to give up on Jackson and the savings would be minimal at this point. And why cut Jones right now without a replacement in sight? Dumping him wasn’t going to save a guy they lost.

The three areas you list as dented are all not nearly as relevant to team success as you may think.

Continuity is nice (especially on the offensive line). But teams regularly turn over 25 to 35 percent of their roster.

You don’t really want teams making decisions based on fan loyalty, do you? Fan loyalty can change week-to-week, and a lot of fans are loyal to Tim Tebow despite the fact he can’t throw with anything close to NFL-caliber accuracy. Should the Broncos have kept him because of fan loyalty? Should the Texans have overspent on Leach and Robinson just because you liked them?

Esprit de corps? Sure, guys are upset in the offseason when they see good players and friends leave. When it comes time to play, if they are pros, they go out and do their job and expect the guys beside them to do theirs. Collectively, they should get good results. Trust me, come the first huddle, an NFL players mentality doesn’t allow him to look around in there and sentimentally contemplate who isn’t there.

The Texans have work to do. But it’s not a train wreck. They showed good depth last year. Now they need guys to step into roles that opened and for players like corner Brandon Harris and outside linebacker Bryan Braman to be that depth. They’ll restock with the draft and contend for the division and a deep run into the playoffs, I’d bet.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

The temptation is to suggest this is the beginning of yet another slide or, worse, collapse, the likes of which are all this franchise that has never reached the postseason has ever known. Thus writes Jeffrey Martin of the Houston Chronicle.

Was there ever a moment when you thought the Texans might win, asks Richard Justice of the Chronicle.

Jacoby Jones has been taking heat, but caught a big touchdown pass against the Ravens, says Jeffrey Martin.

If the Texans can’t run, they can’t hide their deficiencies. And they couldn’t run very well in the loss at Baltimore, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Former Texan Bernard Pollard made a big defensive play against his old team, say McClain and Martin.

Indianapolis Colts

It turns out the Colts are a one-man team, says Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star.

Once again, the Colts could not find a way to finish in the end, says Mike Chappell of the Star.

The defense in the fourth quarter gave the Colts a chance to win, but it was not enough, says Chappell.

Pat McAfee took the blame for a bobbled hold on a blocked field goal, say Chappell and Richards.

Jacksonville Jaguars

In the end, Sunday’s 17-13 defeat was another galling indication that Jacksonville’s get-over-the-hump year still falls short of expectations. In a season of almosts, the Jaguars found a way to match the team’s longest losing streak in a decade, says Gene Frenette of the Times-Union.

It was a familiar formula, says Vito Stellino of the T-U.

Shuffling on the offensive line hurt the Jags, says Tania Ganguli of the T-U.

Frenette’s report card.

Jack Del Rio changed his mind on a big fourth down, says Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

A bye-week assessment of the Titans so far from David Boclair of The City Paper.

It’s time for Chris Johnson to start living up to his contract, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

The Texans parted ways with safety Bernard Pollard largely because of his failures in coverage.

Sunday in Baltimore, can they find a way to take advantage of those flaws when they face the Ravens who deploy Pollard as their strong safety?

Even with Andre Johnson out of the lineup, the Texans have ways to go after Pollard. With two quality pass-catching tight ends in Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen, and with the newly acquired receiver Derrick Mason, who does some of his best work out of the slot, the Texans should be able to attack areas where Pollard will have a lot of responsibility.

In a conference call with Houston reporters, Pollard sounded like he expects nothing less from coach Gary Kubiak, who calls the Texans' offensive plays.

“Kubiak is probably one of the greatest offensive minds I’ve seen. The guy knows how to do things. Like I told the guys here, he is going to dress his offense up. He’s going to do whatever he can to keep everybody thinking and that explains his offensive mind. He’s going to keep you on the edge of your seat. That is exciting. It’s going to be exciting to come out here and try to figure things out. When we watch film, we see what we’re getting and that’s a really good offense. You guys know, this is a top-notch offense, top 3 offense in the league the last five years I think it’s been. We know what we’re going to get: really good players, high tempo, line’s going to be moving, so it’s going to be exciting.”

The more the Texans can go after Pollard the more exciting, from their perspective, it may be.

The Houston Texans are talented.

I don’t buy that they are a finesse team or that they are soft, two criticisms some attach to them.

But as they count down to their opener Sept. 11 against the Colts, I do question their collective personality.

It’s a team loaded with nice, mellow guys. General manager Rick Smith and coach Gary Kubiak are quite calm. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and offensive coordinator Rick Denison are low-key.

There are significant guys on the roster who can flip switches on Sunday and become mean, but what’s the overriding, default persona?

Nice.

It’s a team of nice guys.

A 53-man roster needs to be more diverse than that, just like your office or mine. I’m of the opinion they need a jerk, a rabble rouser, a pest.

Dr. Bryan L. Bonner is an associate professor of organizational behavior at the University of Utah and an associate editor of the journal "Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice." I asked him about my locker room theory.

“That’s an interesting question,” Bonner said. “Research supports the idea that for groups to be successful that they need some level of ‘functional conflict,’ and that without it they become stagnant and team members don’t ask one another the questions or make the challenges that they need to in order for the group to reach new levels of performance.

“Having some difficult people in the group CAN help the group, but only if the conflict is about the task and not about the personalities of the people involved -- that is, it has to be about the game or the effort or the approach, etc. and can’t get personal to be helpful, otherwise the environment can get toxic. I’d say you might benefit from having an SOB or two in this situation.”

I’m not advocating arrests or fights, just more pop, more pulse, more functional conflict.

Bernard Pollard brought some of that, and it had a good early effect on the team. But once it became clear he was not a multidimensional safety, the personality didn’t matter so much because the play wasn’t good enough. He’s gone now. Some teammates say defensive end Antonio Smith fits the bill.

The word that best describes the guy I think the Texans need is one not suited for print here, but I used it while visiting with the Texans during training camp, and they picked up on it as I broached the subject. We substitute “jerk” the rest of the way here.

Many disagreed with my assessment:

Receiver Kevin Walter: “This is football, you’ve got to know when to turn the switch on. I can be standing here talking to you and be a nice guy, but when I go out there, I’m not so nice. I know how to become a [jerk], excuse me for saying that, when the game lights turn on.

“You have to play with a passion, you have to play with a swagger, you have to play with a lot of intensity. You can’t just be a nice guy, ‘Hey, how are you doing?’ That’s not football. I think we do have that, nice guys who know how to turn the switch on.”

J.J. Watt: “I don’t really think it’s necessary. I think what you need is a guy who’s like that on the field. You almost want 22 guys who are like that on the field. But I’ll take myself as an example. Once I step off the field, I am a soft-spoken guy. I’m not going to start any fights. Once I step between those lines I am a whole different guy.”

Running back Arian Foster: “Nobody is as nice as you think he is.”

Not all the Texans think the status quo is good enough, or that the status quo is what we think it is.

“I don’t disagree with that, I think you do need those guys, I think we have them,” outside linebacker Connor Barwin said. “But I am going to let you guys figure out who fits that bill. I don’t think you need guys out getting in trouble or starting fights. You need guys who are tough and we have guys who show their toughness out here every day.”

Just one player really subscribed to my theory.

But if you find one and he’s Andre Johnson, that’s pretty significant.

Johnson is certainly low-key, but he has a mean streak -- see his pummeling of Cortland Finnegan last year if you want to see game-day attitude. Johnson is a leader by example who will speak up when he feels he needs to.

But, he told me, he believes the team does need more than that.

He emphasized he was not questioning management or the coaching staff, and doesn’t care to meddle in their work. But he used the same word I did, and said he’d welcome a couple teammates who wear the label.

“Everybody has their own opinion,” he said. “In my opinion, you have to have those [jerk] guys. Every team has them. I think you have to have a few of them. You have some guys that are [jerks] but when they get on that field, they play big for your team.

“Antonio Smith is one. On offense, I don’t think we really have any. In my opinion, we can win without one but it would be nice to have one. You would like to have like a [jerk] lineman. I think it’s more a thing for O-linemen or D-linemen, linebacker, those are the guys you want to have [jerks].”

So Johnson wouldn’t mind having an offensive lineman in the lineup who was kind of a surly jerk?

“No, not at all,” Johnson said.

He agreed that team personality is a piece of the puzzle, and the Texans may not have enough different pieces. Like me, he’s not looking for anyone who’s on the news for the wrong reasons, and he thinks that’s a big part of the reason the team tends to steer away from anyone who might fill the role.

There is a danger there, sure, but Rick Smith and Kubiak need to have faith in their ability to judge it.

The Colts are a different kind of team, policed by a controlling quarterback and his minions. Peyton Manning fills the role as needed. The Jaguars are heading the nice direction and don’t necessarily have someone who wears the label. The Titans added defensive tackle Shaun Smith, in part, because he is the sort of guy we’re talking about.

In Houston, Kubiak disagreed with the idea that the Texans need more spice in their locker room or on their coaching roster.

“I don’t know that I am low-key every day or Wade is low-key every day,” Kubiak said. “What it boils down to is you’ve got a job to do whether you are a coach or a player. If you’re a guy who doesn’t scream and holler and you do the job right, then you’re going to stick around in this business.

“If you scream and holler and you do a [lousy] job, you’re not going to stick around in this business. I don’t think that’s a deciding factor. ... I’ve seen people get it done in a lot of ways.”

Maybe I am off. Maybe I overrate the jerk factor.

This team of nice guys may well break through and finally get to the playoffs.

But I’d sure like to see what it's like with a [jerk].

» NFC: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South » Unrestricted FAs

A look at the free-agent priorities for each AFC South team:

Houston Texans

1. Finally fix the secondary: Not only was the Texans’ secondary awful in coverage last season, but it also needs some stabilizing veteran leadership on the back end of this revamped defense. A safety like Eric Weddle could help cure both issues. There are quite a few safeties in this crop of free agents who would be clear upgrades for Houston. Of course, we have to discuss Nnamdi Asomugha -- and the Texans should certainly be right in the thick of those negotiations. If they can’t land Asomugha, the Texans could pursue Johnathan Joseph or Ike Taylor, who could help fix some leaks.

2. Work the cap: Houston is pretty tight up against the cap as it stands right now. But the team has serious needs on defense -- particularly in the secondary. In order to get the help they need, the Texans might have to restructure a few contracts or let a current player or two go.

3. Lock up Vonta Leach: This offense pretty much has it all. Wideout Andre Johnson makes everyone around him better in just so many ways. And the running game was exceptional last season. But Leach is a key component in that running game. And no fullback opens holes like this guy. Houston should bring him back and dedicate the rest of its free-agent moves to the defense.

Top five free agents: Leach, WR Jacoby Jones, S Bernard Pollard, DE Mark Anderson and QB Matt Leinart.

Indianapolis Colts

1. Get Peyton Manning’s extension done: Manning has been franchised and had surgery again on his neck recently. But there is little doubt who the face of this franchise is. Getting him locked up long term is something that Indianapolis just needs to get done.

2. Get a starting safety signed: Melvin Bullitt is a free agent. He is a solid player, and bringing him back makes a lot of sense. Outside of Antoine Bethea, who is vastly underrated, Indy has very little at this position. The Colts need to get a starter under contract. Also on defense, bringing back linebacker Clint Session, who is a superb fit in this scheme, and adding defensive tackle help also should be priorities if they can fit it under the cap.

3. Add running back help: This could come in the form of bringing back the reliable Joseph Addai. Well, he is reliable when he is healthy. And Addai has a great grasp of the Colts’ offense. I am very high on 2011 draft pick Delone Carter and maybe the light goes on for Donald Brown. But the Colts do need someone in their backfield who can pass protect and can be trusted. In this capacity, Addai seems to be worth more to the Colts than to any other team.

Top five free agents: Manning (franchised), Session, Addai, Bullitt and OT Charlie Johnson.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1. Address holes at linebacker: Linebackers Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison are up for free agency. I would suggest bringing one of those two back and then finding an upgrade from a coverage standpoint at a starting linebacker position to go along with the steady Daryl Smith. James Anderson would be an excellent target, and if healthy, so would another Panther -- Thomas Davis.

2. Address holes at safety: Jacksonville featured one of the worst secondaries in football last season. The Jags tried many bodies at safety, but it yielded minimal results. This is a very strong free-agent safety class, and the Jaguars need to add a starter or two they can count on week after week.

3. Spend! The Jaguars have quite a bit of money to spend in free agency, and under the new rules, they will have to spend. This free-agency period is like none we have ever seen and the action could be fast and furious. Jacksonville needs to stay the course and make wise financial decisions as it tries to add players who can mostly upgrade a hurting defense.

Top free agents: Marcedes Lewis (franchised), WR Mike Sims-Walker, Durant and Morrison.

Tennessee Titans

1. Revamp the Interior offensive line: Although they didn’t play great in 2010, I have faith in the Titans’ offensive tackles. But the interior of the line is a train wreck. That won’t do with a rookie quarterback behind center and in an offense that will be extremely run-heavy. Chris Johnson had little room to run last season. That needs to change. Marshal Yanda and Harvey Dahl would be great targets here.

2. Add a veteran quarterback: Needless to say, the Titans cannot enter the season with just the quarterbacks they currently have on their roster. They must bring in a veteran with some experience. Donovan McNabb would be high on my list. Matt Hasselbeck might also fit the bill.

3. Fortify every level of the defense: Presently, Tennessee is very young at linebacker, just adequate at safety and could lose three of its defensive ends. Making matters more difficult, the team is also installing a different version of the 4-3 defense. The Titans do have some money to spend in free agency. It would be wise if they used those funds on young free-agent talent, as it appears this team is now rebuilding from the ground up. Every level of the defense could use reinforcement.

Top five free agents: DE Jason Babin, LB Stephen Tulloch, WR Randy Moss, DE Dave Ball and DE Jacob Ford.

Here’s ESPN’s unofficial list of free agents. You can also navigate to other divisions.

We’ll get an official list later today.

A couple of notes on these:

• Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins has retired.
• Jacksonville told receiver Mike Sims-Walker before the lockout that it would not look to re-sign him.
• Houston gave the same indication to safety Bernard Pollard.
• With David Garrard and Luke McCown under contract and Blaine Gabbert drafted 12th overall, Jacksonville is highly unlikely to negotiate with Trent Edwards or Todd Bouman.

In this Insider piece, Bryan McIntyre lists what he thinks should be the first move for each team in the NFL once moves can be made.

I love two of them, which I’ve promoted for some time -- the Jaguars snatching San Diego safety Eric Weddle and the Titans making a run at Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. I have no problem with his desire for the Colts to sign Philadelphia's Quintin Mikell either.

But if the Houston Texans are in line with his thinking and believe adding Dallas strong safety Gerald Sensabaugh will qualify as any kind of priority or big fix, I am skeptical.

Sensabaugh played for Texans new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips with the Cowboys. If he is a piece of a puzzle that falls in line after a big cornerback signing, then that’s a different story.

I just spoke to Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. about Sensabaugh.

He said Sensabaugh played “really well” last year for Dallas. The Cowboys did what they could to keep him in the box and out of coverage, but Williamson said in coverage Sensabaugh would still be an upgrade in Houston over the ousted Bernard Pollard.

I agree with Williamson that the Texans would be better served at safety to chase a top guy like Mikell. But if they make a bigger move at corner and then bring in the low-cost Sensabaugh, things could be OK.

That would likely mean Glover Quin at free safety paired with Sensabaugh at strong on opening day. With Quin converting from corner, having a strong safety who’s not particularly good in coverage could put extra strain on the youngster. I’m wary of that, but know options could be limited and better corners could help soften that concern.

“They wouldn’t be strong at safety,” Williamson said. “But as a fallback plan it wouldn’t be bad.”

Missed tackles can kill.

As I am a positive guy, my first thought after reading this fine piece from Aaron Schatz wasn’t about Michael Griffin's 17 missed tackles or Will Witherspoon's missed tackle rate of 19.5.

No, it was of just how impressive Antoine Bethea's numbers were by Football Outsider’s count in 2010. Holding together a secondary that literally crumbled around him, Bethea made 80 tackles and missed two. Two.

His 3.6 missed tackle percentage ranked fifth in the league, but only one other player on it had more tackles than Bethea did -- Buffalo’s Donte Whitner had 105 tackles and four missed, for 3.4 percent.

I think Bethea is excellent. He was our All AFC-South free safety, he should have been second-team All Pro considering a bunch of guys tied for the honor with one vote apiece. Here is further evidence for all that.

Jacksonville cornerback Rashean Mathis also rated quite well, with 48 tackles and just one missed tackle.

The Titans, meanwhile, had three of the top seven players on the missed tackles list in Griffin, Witherspoon (15) and Stephen Tulloch (13). Houston saw Bernard Pollard miss 13 and Glover Quin miss 11, while Eugene Wilson’s miss rate was 16.3 percent.

Bethea’s safety mate for the majority of the season, Aaron Francisco, was the second worst defensive back missing 17.6 percent of his chances.

Perhaps Bethea can put on a clinic for Tennessee and Houston?

After he read this post Tuesday, alert reader @thezachlyons asked me via Twitter if I could flip the numbers inside-out.

So in following up an entry about how quarterbacks benefited from dropped interceptions in 2010, we look at the guys from the division who did their best to help out quarterbacks.

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders was kind enough to share. As with the flip sides of the stat, Football Outsiders judges a drop only when a very catchable ball hits a defender in the hands or the chest.

The division didn’t boast a primary offender -- Miami’s Sean Smith, Tampa Bay’s Aqib Talib and Kansas City’s Derrick Johnson each had five. No AFC South defender had more than two.

Team-by-team here are the muffed turnover chances:

• Houston (6): Eugene Wilson 2, Kareem Jackson, Bernard Pollard, Glover Quin, Brian Cushing.
• Indianapolis (6): Jerraud Powers, Kelvin Hayden, Antoine Bethea, Justin Tryon, Cornelius Brown, Tyjuan Hagler.
• Jacksonville (5): Don Carey, Rashean Mathis, David Jones, Sean Considine, Russell Allen.
• Tennessee (3): Will Witherspoon, Sen’Derrick Marks, Cortland Finnegan.

They need to be caught, of course. But they all counted as passes defensed. And while they could have been huge plays, at least they weren’t huge plays against, right?

I mean it’s bad the Texans and Colts had a lot, because they shouldn’t be dropped. But the Titans probably wouldn’t have minded a few more.

If Peyton Manning dropped back and looked downfield against the secondaries of the Texans or Jaguars right now, he’d find a safety pool that averages 2.25 years of experience and has an average draft spot of No. 205.

Collectively, Troy Nolan and Dominique Barber of Houston and Don Carey and Courtney Greene of Jacksonville have five interceptions, three fumble recoveries and one forced fumble in 31 career starts.

They are nice guys with some promise, but it’s hard to tab any one of the four as a star in the making.

As Houston and Jacksonville head toward a draft where the safeties are not highly regarded, it screams the question:

How can teams trying to catch Manning’s Colts playing in an increasingly quarterback-driven league be so poorly stocked as such a critical position?

It’s hard to figure.

At least the Jaguars have taken a big swing, missing badly on No. 21 overall pick Reggie Nelson in 2007, a feeble tackler who tended to take terrible angles. He was traded to Cincinnati before the 2010 season. Jacksonville was also the first team to have Bob Sanders in for a visit after he was cut by the Colts in February, but he ultimately lined up to go to San Diego.

Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio talked of his desire to add “that guy,” whether he came in the form of Sanders or not.

The Jaguars’ last homegrown safety of influence before Nelson was Gerald Sensabaugh, a fifth-rounder in 2005 whom the team let walk to Dallas as a free agent after the 2008 season and who’s scheduled to be a free agent again.

The team simply asked too much of young guys last season. Carey moved to safety from corner. He had never made calls before, but he was usually responsible for adjusting one half of the pass defense once it lined up, a tall task in games against the likes of Manning and Matt Schaub.

“Even when you crack down on your film study, when you get to a game it’s still very frustrating because they kind of know what you’re going to do in certain situations,” Carey said. “You try hard to hide your coverages; it’s a real chess match.”

Carey said he can’t worry about who’s brought in, he just needs to work to get better. General manager Gene Smith still sees Carey as an “ascending” player. Del Rio said Carey needs “technique clean-up.”

“Will he ascend to the starter we need him to be?” Del Rio asked. “I don’t know that. I think the jury’s still out.”

For a team that wants to build through the draft, Houston has devoted virtually no resources to the safety position. Of the 76 draft selections the Texans have made since they got off the ground in 2002, they've spent eight on safeties, but only one as high as the fourth round.

They relied on veteran castoffs the past few years but released the ineffective Eugene Wilson and made it known the one-dimensional Bernard Pollard will not be re-signed.

One personnel man told me recently that the state of the positions in the league is average, that this draft is thin at the spot, that the options are better at free than strong and that teams may look more than ever to try to convert corners.

Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com thinks these five corners could wind up being NFL safeties: Aaron Williams of Texas (second round), Marcus Gilchrist of Clemson (third), Jalil Brown of Colorado (third or fourth), Chris Culliver of South Carolina (fourth) and Chris Rucker of Michigan State (fourth or fifth).

Many teams are increasingly blurring the lines between the roles and ideally like to have two players who can both run and cover and step up to play the run.

Teams like the Texans and Jaguars would surely be pleased, however, to have one player with a talent on each end of the safety spectrum who could serve as an upgrade and help reduce the stress on the cornerbacks.

Houston may move Glover Quin to free safety, but then it will be playing its best cornerback out of position.

How much could better play from the safeties help a group of young corners that really struggled in 2010?

“I think it’s significant,” Texans general manager Rick Smith said. “I mean you’re looking at a former safety. So I value the position significantly.”

Both Texans coach Gary Kubiak and the Jaguars’ Smith have said they hope to add a veteran at the position as well as examining the draft options.

“You’d always like to have a veteran at the safety position,” Gene Smith said. “Playing safety is like playing quarterback, and you’d always prefer to have a veteran at quarterback. You don’t always have the luxury of being in that position, but that would be a good area to get a veteran player.”

A guy like San Diego free safety Eric Weddle, who could buy a real secondary ownership stake by signing with Houston or Jacksonville, should be an attractive option if he reaches the market. And he or Indianapolis’ Melvin Bullitt could help one of the incumbent kids or a rookie grow into a role quicker. Signing him could also help weaken the division’s top team.

Their values, when free agency arrives, should be high no matter who’s been drafted.

Even if the Colts re-sign Bullitt, they probably will be looking for safety depth. And while Tennessee maintains faith in free safety Michael Griffin, it should be looking for a player to challenge slipping veteran Chris Hope.

That’s just four teams in need of six players at the position in a draft where ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay thinks Rahim Moore of UCLA may be the only guy in the draft capable of stepping in as an opening-day NFL starter.

“He’s a really good player, great angles, ball skills,” McShay said. “The thing that keeps him from being elite is he’s not fluid in man-to-man coverage. But he has good range and is very instinctive.

“After that there is a big drop-off. Jaiquawn Garrett from Temple is a good player, but not elite. Ahmad Black from Florida is a great athlete, quick, and hits hard for a small guy, but he’s really small. DeAndre McDaniel from Clemson is so overrated.”

Those are hardly two paragraphs that will get Texans and Jaguars fans excited.

They may have an entirely different effect on Manning and the quarterbacks slated to throw against those teams if and when we get kickoffs this fall.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Needs.

Houston Texans

Where to start? The defense needs a major personnel infusion, starting at safety, where this draft is weak. Eugene Wilson (cut) and Bernard Pollard (not tendered in case he would be restricted) are not going to be back. They need candidates for both starting spots.

Outside linebacker in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 is a void, where rehabbing 4-3 end Connor Barwin is slated to be one guy and there is a blank on the other.

The team has talked confidently about Shaun Cody, who got a two-year contract, and second-year man Earl Mitchell being capable of playing the nose for Phillips. They can certainly upgrade.

The best answer for a group of too-young cornerbacks would be a veteran, not a rookie, but who knows how the next guy arrives? And a No. 2 wide receiver better than Kevin Walter who can do what they’d hoped Jacoby Jones would do would be nice.

Indianapolis Colts

We’ve been hearing about the need to get a tough yard in a crucial situation with the run game for some time and haven’t seen the personnel changes necessary. Then Bill Polian said during the season that yes, offensive tackle Rodger Saffold (drafted by the Rams in the second round) could have helped the Colts. The team needs offensive linemen, plural. At least one high-quality guy who can contribute from opening day would be big.

When they're healthy, Indianapolis has a great four-pack of receivers in Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. But health questions on Collie and Gonzalez will linger; none of those guys looks to be an heir to Wayne’s role, and the Peyton Manning-era Colts have spent premium picks on skill guys.

The corner depth proved pretty good, but even if they are ultimately able to re-sign Melvin Bullitt, the Colts need some depth at safety.

Jacksonville Jaguars

While Courtney Greene may be a serviceable NFL safety, Don Carey probably is not. Odds are the Jaguars draft one and sign one at a position that was a big weakness in 2010.

Linebacker is also a spot of need. Daryl Smith is locked in, but the team probably will allow Kirk Morrison and Justin Durant to walk as free agents, meaning they need a starter on the middle and the outside.

Defensive end wouldn’t seem a need considering the team drafted Larry Hart and Austen Lane last season after adding veteran Aaron Kampman. But the pass rush is not where they want it, and a rush end could well be a position they address.

Inconsistent quarterback David Garrard needs to see the team have a legitimate alternative, and he should come from this draft. And those two quarterbacks plus Luke McCown need a No. 1-caliber receiver to head a group that won’t bring Mike Sims-Walker back.

Tennessee Titans

It starts under center, where the Titans do not have a No. 1 or No. 2 quarterback. They intend to add one veteran and one rookie and could easily spend their first or second pick on a signal-caller.

The team needs to get bigger and more durable on the defensive line. A beefy tackle and a rugged defensive end are on the wish list, and both could help make things easier for the rest of the defense. The interior didn’t collapse the pocket a lot, and the smallish ends wore down. Three of them are heading for free agency -- Jason Babin, Dave Ball and Jacob Ford.

Stephen Tulloch is heading for free agency, and the Titans didn’t get enough plays out of the linebackers last year, so they could upgrade.

Chris Hope’s replacement at strong safety doesn’t appear to be on the roster. While it’s a thin draft at the spot, the Titans need to find a candidate.

The Titans and Texans have doled out their tenders offers to players who could wind up restricted free agents.

But if a new CBA reverts to a formula in which players with at least four years of service and an expired contract are unresticted free agents, only four of 13 contract offers made by the two teams will wind up having any meaning.

Mark Berman says Houston didn't tender linebacker Zac Diles and strong safety Bernard Pollard. That means even in a scenario most favorable to the team in which it could maintain control over their fates, the Texans don't want them.

So Houston doesn't view Diles as a fit in its new 3-4 front and will be looking for two new safeties -- it recently cut incumbent free safety Eugene Wilson.

Among the tenders that would stick in even the players' best-case scenarios, leaving them restricted: Houston guard Mike Brisiel, Titans linebackers Patrick Bailey and Tim Shaw and Titans tackle Mike Otto.

Other Texans tendered who are likely to wind up unrestricted based on service time: tight end Owen Daniels, quarterback Matt Leinart, defensive end Mark Anderson, offensive tackle Rashad Butler and receiver Jacoby Jones. Along with Pollard and Diles, the Texans didn't tender offensive lineman Kasey Studdard or defensive end Tim Bulman.

Other Titans tendered who are likely to wind up unrestricted based on service time: Linebacker Stephen Tulloch, fullback Ahmard Hall, defensive end Jacob Ford and guard Leroy Harris.

John Glennon reports the Titans passed on tendering linebacker Colin Allred, a played they could have held onto.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Texans have major needs on defense.

They need a defensive tackle, at least one outside linebacker, maybe two new starting safeties and, ideally, a veteran cornerback.

At No. 11, they could have a lot of options that fit. But what if a stud wide receiver is there?

Gary Kubiak was asked Friday if there is anyway the team wouldn’t go defense in the draft.

“I think you are always talking about taking the best players for your football team," Kubiak said. "You and I both know, we have big problems on that side of the ball last year. We made a big commitment to [new defensive coordinator] Wade [Phillips] to come in and get our defense going very quickly.

“We have a lot of improvements to make in that area. We will have to evaluate the draft. That won’t change, but obviously that’s a big part of our football team that needs to be corrected.”

Translation: Boy there would have to be a tremendous offensive talent for us to not take a defender. (At least I hope that's what he's saying.)

Kubiak said he loves the way Phillips evaluates players and the team will lean on him in that department.

Safety is a major need. Eugene Wilson was released and will be replaced at free safety. Incumbent strong safety Bernard Pollard, who can be a great run player but doesn’t help a great deal in pass defense, is not under contract.

Glover Quin was the team’s best cornerback and plays well inside in the nickel. Kubiak said he could be moved to safety depending on who the team adds. Houston isn't drafting a savior safety 11th. I think it would be a mistake to move Quin, but I’m saving further thoughts on the division’s safety issues for an up-coming column.

Hope you’ll come back to find that when we get to it.

Good defensive backs should have short memories. Typically that cliched line is applied play-to-play or game-to-game. In the case of the Houston Texans, season-to-season would be good, too.

Houston had the worst pass defense in the NFL in 2010, yielding 267.5 yards a game. The Texans gave up single-game passing totals of 419, 403, 329, 305 and 301 yards.

Their plan to rely on young cornerbacks Kareem Jackson, Glover Quin and Brice McCain backfired.

“They are terrible,” Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said of Houston’s defensive backs. Veteran safeties Eugene Wilson and Bernard Pollard could both be replaced.

“In fact, they are right there with division-mate Jacksonville as the worst secondary in all of football. The Texans' safeties -- who are terrible in coverage -- deserve a lot of blame, as does a pass-rush that could use upgrading," Williamson said.

"But I blame the secondary much more than the pass-rush. As for the cornerbacks, it is way too early to write off Jackson. I did like him coming out of Alabama and he has to get better in Year 2. But wow, he was pretty terrible as a rookie.

“I would classify Brice McCain and Troy Nolan as ‘just a couple of guys’ and they need to be down-the-line contributors. Glover Quin is the best of the group right now, but in the end, I like him as a No. 3 corner with Jackson as one starter [possibly] and someone to be determined as the opposite starter. As for adding a veteran [Champ Bailey?], I am all for it. Not only does this secondary need veteran leadership, but so does the entire football team.”

Surely the Texans will be players in free agency -- if and when there is free agency. If they add a superstar corner like Nnamdi Asomugha or Bailey, shift each corner the Texans already have down a peg, find better safeties and get a better pass rush out of the 3-4 being installed by new coordinator Wade Phillips, things could be a lot better.

But Vance Joseph, who after five seasons with the San Francisco 49ers replaces David Gibbs as Texans secondary coach, can’t depend on that big addition. He’s got to focus on who he has right now.

Joseph has met and talked with his young guys about having clean slates and about how they can develop.

As is the nature of football in February, Joseph is relatively upbeat.

“I’m aware of what they did last year, I’ve watched the film and I’ll tell you, it’s not as bad as everyone thinks,” he said. “You’ve got to play better. And until those guys go out there and play better, that’s going to stick to them. We’ve got to do a good job of protecting those young corners.

“Obviously getting some pass rush helps, having some scheme things tweaked where they won’t be on their own a lot helps. But you regain confidence by playing well. So until they play better, that won’t be the case.”

When a new position coach joins a team to help fix a problem area, I want to know what he sees early on that he believes can be changed. Joseph said he often saw guys in position who couldn’t make the play.

Joseph said while secondary guys always need to be wary of getting beat for a big play over the top, fear of that can really cost a defense.

Expect the 2011 Texans to be closer to pass catchers on shorter stuff.

“That’s the part I’ve got to get right, finishing and making plays and giving them tools to make and finish plays,” Joseph said. “…On early downs, it’s back-pedaling, staying square and challenging routes. In the NFL, [receivers] are going to catch balls, but you want to make them bang-bang plays. When they catch the ball, I want them tackled.

“That’s something we can help them with, playing more square from the line of scrimmage and not bailing as much. When you’re bailing, you’re conceding most routes. You say, ‘Hey, I’m not going to get beat deep but I’m going to give you a 20-yard comeback.’ We’re going to play square and we’re going to challenge routes.”

While Joseph hopes his group will be able to play a wide variety of coverages, he also believes it’s important that in times of crisis they can fall back on something standard.

Last season, the defensive backs rarely seemed to have that reset mode. Going forward, Joseph’s hope is they always can return to something they know they are good at that can help them get through a tough day with a good result.

Phillips’ new defensive system won’t affect the secondary like it will the defensive line and linebackers. But there will be benefits out of a more unpredictable front for defensive backs.

“The beauty, I think, of playing defensive back in the 34 is the disguise mechanisms,” Joseph said. “You’re going to start in a basic two-shell, then move into your coverages. When you’re a 4-3 team, they know the four rushers, they’re down with their hands on the ground.

“Now, we can hold our coverage and the offense doesn’t know where that fourth rusher is coming from …. It kind of helps protect corners. Until a ball is snapped, that quarterback won’t know what we are in.”

Young guys, in disguise, able to fall back on something they know they are good at, eager to prove they are better than 32nd in the league. It’s like a lot of offseason recipes, filled with hope and promise.

Shooting for the stars is fine, but the Texans' secondary doesn’t have to be filled with stars to alter its reputation and play winning football.

“We don’t need guys who are going to Hawaii every year,” Joseph said. “We’ve got to stress here that we just need guys who fit what we do and are capable of doing the job within the system.”

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 21
Preseason Power Ranking: 14

Biggest surprise: Houston liked what it saw from Arian Foster late in 2009. The team believed he would feed off the motivation and opportunity it offered him in the offseason. But even plugging him into the Texans' best-case scenario, it would have been hard to envision Foster earning the NFL’s rushing title as a part of a pass-centric offense backed by a shaky defense. He burst onto the scene with 231 rushing yards against the Colts, and it stood up as the biggest rush game of the season. He carried 327 times for 1,616 yards (a 4.9-yard average) with 16 touchdowns. He was also the team’s second leading receiver with 66 catches for 604 yards and two more scores. It was an incredible season.

Biggest disappointment: The defense was not going to be the strength of the team, but it would have been hard to envision just how poorly this group was going to do. The front didn’t hurry quarterbacks enough, and they posted a collective 100.5 passer rating against the Texans. In their last 10 games, they beat only Titans rookie Rusty Smith and Jacksonville backup Trent Edwards. The veteran safeties, Eugene Wilson and Bernard Pollard, were ineffective against the pass and did little to offset the inexperience of the Kiddie Corps Corners -- Kareem Jackson, Glover Quin and the eventually benched Brice McCain. Jason Allen was an improvement when he came in, but not by a ton. Houston gave up 33 passing touchdowns, a number bigger than its sack total (30).

Biggest need: Defense. It starts with a replacement for defensive coordinator Frank Bush and several other new defensive assistants as the Texans are sticking with head coach Gary Kubiak. From there, whether they stick with a 4-3 or unwisely move to a 3-4 which would hurt Mario Williams, they have desperate needs. At least one penetrating defensive tackle, safeties who are comfortable in coverage and fast, and a veteran corner who could lead a young group would be big additions.

Team MVP: Foster. It’s hard to look another direction considering Andre Johnson dealt with an ankle injury all season and missed three games. Foster was steady and could have produced even more but for some questionable play-calling, particularly in the loss at Indianapolis.

Work as a unit: Fullback Vonta Leach earned a Pro Bowl spot for his work leading Foster, but none of the offensive linemen was even named an alternate to the all-star game. The group and tight ends, led by Joel Dreessen, did fine work making things happen for Foster in their first season without the offensive line coach who set up their scheme, Alex Gibbs. The pass blocking was not as good as Matt Schaub was taken down 32 times, even if a share of those were on him. If the Texans can improve there, this batch of relative unknowns could really have an impact in 2011.