ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

Hosts Bill Polian and Alex Marvez spoke with Indianapolis Colts veteran defensive end/outside linebacker Dwight Freeney on SiriusXM NFL Radio recently, and kindly provided this snippet.

Polian: “I can’t get used to hearing ‘Colts outside linebacker Dwight Freeney.’ Tell me what the new defense is going to ask you to do, how you think you are going to be deployed and how you are viewing it and what you are looking forward to.”

Freeney: “Yeah, it’s definitely something that I’m not used to hearing. But it’s going to be interesting and fun for me. I’ve been doing, as you know, the same thing I’ve always been doing for 10 years, going on my 11th year now. And I’ve been pretty successful at it. They’re going to be putting in a system similar to kinda like, you know, maybe the Ravens or Pittsburgh a little bit, outside linebacker, which is a proven system that works.

“So I guess for me it is just getting familiar with all those nuances, my line of sight, walking around, dropping in coverage. I’m doing those things and, you know, that’s just going to take a little time in the beginning to get used to, to get as comfortable as I have been having my hand on the ground, being in one position.

“But also this is going to probably benefit me maybe a little bit because I’m not in a blackboard position, as we call it, where they know exactly where I am and they know exactly what we’re going to do. We’ll be coming with different various blitzes from different sides. I’ll be moving around so I’ll be harder to find.”

Polian: “So similar to what [Terrell] Suggs did in Baltimore?”

Freeney: “Similar to it. I’m sure we’ll come up with our own little tweaks to that whole entire system. But I think from a pass-rusher’s standpoint, that’s the benefit if you can go out and be able to do all that you have done, for me, on one side. Now being able to pass rush against the opposite tackle who may be a weaker player, maybe they’ll single out a guard, who knows what they’ll do? Which will give me some opportunities to make some big plays where in the past it was pretty much, ‘Dwight, you’re on the right, whatever they throw at you just handle it and deal with it.”

Freeney sounds fired up, which is great and which makes me fired up to see the Colts defense with him and Robert Mathis in the new roles. I suspect they'll both be struggling with the suspect coverage the team will field behind them.

Thoughts on the Colts' draft from two people involved in evaluating personnel for NFL teams:

Guy No. 1:

“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”

“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”

“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”

“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”

Guy No. 2:

“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “

“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.

“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”

“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”

“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”

Darrick Seymore from Jacksonville, Fla., writes: The way our new owner, Mr. Khan, rolled into Jacksonville, I was expecting some really flashing things to be happening by now. Not sure if this is the quiet before the storm or something else. What's your take in the apparent lack of activity here in J-Ville?

Paul Kuharsky: Shad Khan is not about flashing things, so far, and that’s fine. Certainly he’s got a general manager and a coach who are not flashy.

Teams who are about flashing, or flashy things, generally don’t fare well. Who’s the last team that won the offseason and the Super Bowl? (That said, Khan could have tempered the big talk about being "all in." It made agents expect that GM Gene Smith was going to be out there with rolls of money, shopping.)

The Jaguars could have done better in free agency, but they retained their key people, added a receiver they like in Laurent Robinson, got a backup/alternative quarterback in Chad Henne and hope for a big draft.

I don’t know what storm you can still anticipate this long after the top free agents are gone.

---

Graham from Montreal writes: With Koppen re-signing with the Patriots, what's the Titans' potential opportunities to improve at center in free agency? Is it more likely that we'll see a middle-round pick being used to try to develop a center and maybe also to be used as a long-snapper?

Paul Kuharsky: There was never any evidence the Titans had any interest in Dan Koppen after they lost out on Chris Myers, Scott Wells and even Jeff Saturday.

I think your scenario is the likely one now. It’s quite possible the Titans will go forward with Eugene Amano still in place, or with a rookie or Fernando Velasco; Kevin Matthews could even fight his way into the lineup.

---

Jonathan from Fort Wayne, Ind., writes: Find it interesting you question why Irsay would want to be coy with the Luck pick. While I agree it's obvious based on what I've read/heard that the Colts will select Luck, Irsay not sharing has incentive - it keeps the Colts in the spotlight for a little bit longer. After the draft, the Colts will quickly fall from a team that garnered a ton of press the past few years to another struggling team with a promising future. For the first game or two the Colts will once again be thrust in the spotlight as people judge Luck. So, the team needs as much press as possible right now. I think it is mostly a PR move to keep analysts (even if they are 99.99% sure) to at least discuss the decision and the team. Even more so now with the CBA because the team won't need extra time to negotiate the contract. After this draft the Colts won't be talked about very much for awhile based on a roster that should struggle, even with a possible once-in-a-generation quarterback.

Paul Kuharsky: As I’ve written, the team isn’t obligated to reveal anything and can milk it if it likes.

The Colts aren't getting any huge public-relations advantage leading up to the draft that they wouldn’t be getting if the verdict was made public early that they are taking Andrew Luck. When Bill Polian is out there saying it's who team owner Jim Irsay wants, Irsay being coy doesn't really work.

Either way, I would have written this piece that was published Friday, for example. They didn't gain anything from mystery there. And there really is no mystery.

April 26 -- the first day of the NFL draft -- is going to wind up being more about who goes third and what happens with Ryan Tannehill than it will be about Luck or Robert Griffin III, because there is no mystery about them.

Interest in Luck will last all season, no matter how bad the Colts are.

---

Matt from Berkeley, Calif., writes: What do you think of Jags fullback Greg Jones? He's been a low-profile player at a low-profile position, but I've only ever read positive things about him - especially from opposing defensive coordinators. Today, I realized he'll be remembered (if people really remember fullbacks) for blocking for both Fred Taylor and MJD. Taylor arguably had a HoF career - at least by the numbers, and MJD is on pace to make an argument as well. What other positions in football have silent contributors stalwartly working to help their team week after week? We as fans often miss such players between the highlights.

Paul Kuharsky: He’s a good player, but Jack Del Rio’s love of him was overboard and he’s been dinged a lot in his career.

The difference between an average fullback and a really good fullback – which Jones is usually rated as being – is not that extreme or significant to me or to most. While the AFC South is now a division with four fullback teams, I prefer teams that have more versatile tight ends serve as the extra blockers.

I wouldn’t exactly call fullback an under-recognized spot, either. When a back has a big season like Maurice Jones-Drew did, the fullback typically gets his accolades. Vonta Leach certainly reaped huge benefits (in a big free-agent contract from Baltimore) after Arian Foster broke through in Houston.

There are a ton of offensive linemen and interior defensive lineman who do dirty work on all or most of the snaps – as compared to the typical third of the snaps of a fullback – with even less notoriety.

---

Bobby from Buffalo, N.Y., writes: Just a general NFL question here. If a team with no first-round picks signs a player with a first-round tender such as Mike Wallace, what do they give up or is it even allowed?

Paul Kuharsky: You have to have your original first-round pick to give up. You can’t sign a guy with a first-round tender to an offer sheet unless you have it or make a deal to get it back.

---

With the departure of Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the AFC South lost two overall No. 1 picks.

The loss of star power led me to wonder about what our teams have left in terms of high-ranking draft picks, and how they compare to one another and the rest of the league.

John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked at the average draft slot of the top 10 highest-drafted players -- how ever deep that goes beyond the first round -- still on each team.

Obviously, where a team drafts is based on how it finishes. Certainly higher draft picks hardly guarantee successful choices. But if you’ve got higher picks, you’ve got a better chance of hitting.

As the chart at right shows, all four AFC South teams fall below the league average of 35.1: The Texans are at 35.4, the Jaguars 38.1, the Titans 39.3 and the Colts 46.8.

The Texans and Colts clearly suffer from losing Williams and Manning. The Jaguars have only four home-grown first-rounders on their team after a bunch of busts. The Titans' number inflates because Adam Jones and Vince Young didn’t stick around. The Colts have been consistently good, so they’ve consistently drafted late. Their averages are about to rise.

As the chart below shows, the top 10 highest-drafted players still in the AFC South average a draft spot of 11.1. The only division whose top 10 remaining home-grown draft picks were selected at a worse average position is the NFC East (13.9).

It's interesting that first-rounders remaining were drafted, on average, inside the top 12.

Last year, when Bill Polian was still running the Colts, he said he expected a higher hit rate when picking before and after 12th through a draft.

“I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20," he said. "If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven."

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info limited his search to the average draft position of first-rounders remaining with the team that drafted them (chart at right). This seems less telling to me as you eliminate first-rounders who busted, and first-rounders who have left.

Buffalo’s the high at 7.7, the Giants are the low at 25.2.

Jacksonville comes in at 14.0, Houston at 15.0, Tennessee at 19.4 and Indianapolis at 24.2.

Here are the top draft guys in the division now, pending the Colts' pick at No. 1, and the Jaguars' pick at No. 7.

• Texans receiver Andre Johnson, third overall
• Titans quarterback Jake Locker, eighth
• Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, eighth
• Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, 10th
• Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert, 10th
• Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, 11th
• Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, 11th
• Texans inside linebacker Brian Cushing, 15th
• Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan, 16th
• Titans safety Michael Griffin, 19th

At the news conference making Peyton Manning’s release official, Colts owner Jim Irsay indicated more roster moves were pending.

They came down Friday, and the remaining roster is a barren landscape.

Gone are halfback Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, safety Melvin Bullitt, linebacker Gary Brackett, and quarterback Curtis Painter.

All but Painter are proven players who played important roles in the system the team run under the team’s top executive, Bill Polian, and coaches Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell.

Those three powers are gone, and new GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano are starting with a virtual clean slate.

Addai is not the type of back the team will want as it looks to get bigger and more powerful. Clark, Bullitt and Brackett are officially injury-prone and aging.

Some of these moves bring accelerated cap hits, and might cost more than the significant salaries the players were scheduled to make will save.

But in a year, the team should be in much better financial shape -- and be adding instead of subtracting.

The next big question is defensive end Dwight Freeney, who's due $14 million this season and carries a $19 million cap number.

Just a few weeks ago, a high-tech decal of the Lombardi Trophy rose above Indianapolis, stuck to the city’s newest skyscraper, the J.W. Marriott. The building is an easy walk from the Indianapolis Colts' home field, Lucas Oil Stadium.

It sounds like hyperbole to suggest that the city never would have had the hotel or stadium or Super Bowl without Peyton Manning. But it’s true.

A franchise that snuck out of Baltimore in March 1984 to make a new home in Indiana played 14 seasons before Manning’s arrival in 1998.

Before him, the Colts played in five playoff games and maxed out at 9-7, a record they hit five times.

With him, the Colts won at least 10 games 11 times and played in 19 playoff games, including two Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl XLI.

In those 14 years, he took a region that had been basketball country and altered its sporting course and preference.

Bill Polian drafted Manning and was fired after the 2011 Colts went 2-14 without the injured quarterback. Next week, Polian will join ESPN as an NFL analyst. He talked to "SportsCenter" about Manning after the news broke.

“He ignited a fever for football in the state, and Indiana was a basketball state before Peyton came there,” Polian said. “It’s a football state now, producing more Division I football players than ever before.”

The shock of the separation is minimized only because we’ve seen it coming for so long.

While I’ve spent a lot of time in Indianapolis, and feel I have a sense of the place, I cannot pretend to know it as a hometown.

I do know many people with Indianapolis and Indiana addresses, though. And through them I know how deep the affection for Manning runs, how truly many who rooted for him every Sunday feel he represented their city and state.

It’s a place that prides itself on hard work and he epitomized a hardworking football player, with grit for sure, but with plenty of grace, too.

Indianapolis may have had plenty of time to get ready for the official news that the team and Manning are parting ways -- an announcement will come Wednesday.

But for those who pledged their loyalty to the Colts while Manning was making them relevant, no degree of prep time will make it easier to see him don a helmet without a horseshoe on it.

A percentage of fans won’t be able to watch him play for someone else. But I suspect many more will find it harder not to watch him. When a guy’s done that much to endear himself to you and to help shine a positive light on your city, it takes more than a change of uniform to sever the tie, particularly when the divorce was out of his control.

In Indianapolis, as Colts fans check out the new quarterback -- Andrew Luck is the presumed successor -- many people won’t be able to help checking on the old one, too.

The Lombardi Trophy decal that stood so tall over Indianapolis during a wonderful Super Bowl week came down shortly after the game.

The huge banner of Manning on the city-facing side of Lucas Oil Stadium will soon follow in a face-lifting move.

No matter how long Indianapolis had to brace for it, this separation still stings.

The pool of NFL analysts is super deep.

It’s stacked with former players and coaches, but tends to be thin when it comes to GMs who’ve been decision-makers.

ESPN’s added one of those to its stable, announcing today that former Colts executive Bill Polian has joined the network. He will debut March 12 on "SportsCenter" and "NFL32."

The architect of the Colts who won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2006 season now joins the coach of that team as a television personality. Since he retired from the league, Tony Dungy has been a quality piece of NBC’s "Football Night in America." Polian can be the same for ESPN.

In my dealings with him since starting in this job in 2008, he was accommodating and helpful. Fifteen minutes with him could qualify as blog fodder gold. Take him the right big picture or personnel questions and he would regularly deliver home-run information and perspective.

He also qualified as a tough interview and could be intimidating. You couldn’t get away with a bad question or he’d call you on it and make you uncomfortable. He'd do the same if he didn't care for a topic that might have been just fine. There were reporters and analysts he simply did not like, and it’s always a bit awkward to me when a person from the league who fought with an element of the press moves on to joins the press.

But here’s what’s important: Polian can lend great perspective on league and personnel issues. I especially look forward to seeing him break down tape and tell us why a player is suited for a job or not and why a guy made a play or didn’t.

I saw Polian briefly in Indianapolis at the scouting combine. (He didn’t hint this was coming.) He said he was about to relocate from Indy to North Carolina, where some of his family settled when he worked for the Panthers.

He’ll now earn frequent flier points shuttling from Charlotte to Hartford, Conn. He may make watching football more enjoyable for a lot of us by doing so.

Reading the coverage …

Today’s edition is a quick rundown of what beat people uncovered at the combine.

Houston Texans

Texans offensive lineman Rashad Butler used a gay slur on Twitter Thursday, writes Jerome Solomon.

Indianapolis Colts

As coaches and GMs talk about desires at quarterback, they aren’t saying his name but we know they’re talking about Peyton Manning, says Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star.

Bill Polian expects Manning to play, says Mike Chappell of the Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sorting out receivers has been a difficult process for the Jaguars in the recent past. Now GM Gene Smith has to try to find some again, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Smith sees the Jaguars pending free agents as part of the team’s future, says Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

Titans general manager Ruston Webster is looking for a special pass-rusher to help lift the Titans defense to a new level, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

The Titans are making progress toward a deal with safety Jordan Babineaux, a key guy in their secondary plan, says Wyatt.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Colts of Chuck Pagano will gradually get bigger.

He spoke respectfully of the success the small and nimble Colts of Bill Polian, Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell had. But at the scouting combine he referred to an Al Davis mantra he picked up -- “It’s a big-man game” -- while emphasizing that doesn’t completely discount little, fast guys.

But part of getting big and part of being big in the NFL ties to an age-old football formula: To win, you’ve got to run and stop the run.

I asked him Thursday about his offensive philosophy, and here’s what he said:

“You watch the Steelers play, right? I’ve always said this and I learned this from my dad watching him coach growing up: You’ve got to run the football and have to stop the run to be successful at any level. So we’re going to be able to run the football, and like I said at my first press conference, you’ve got to be able to throw it also. So a good combination of the two. We want to be explosive, we want to be physical, we want to be tough, we want to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, most specifically up front with the offensive line.”

Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson will have a lot of work to do to shape an offensive line that can win like that, and they may not have the running backs who can be a key to that formula, either. (Incidentally, the 2011 Steelers threw the ball better than they ran it, and defended the pass better than they slowed the run.)

Plenty of teams win in today’s NFL with below-average run games and run defenses.

• The Super Bowl champion New York Giants were the NFL’s worst rushing offense in the 2011 regular season and ranked 19th in run defense.
• A year before, the Packers won the Lombardi trophy with the league’s 24th-best run game and 18th-ranked run defense.
• And while the 2009 Steelers defended the run well, ranking third, they were hardly a dominant rushing offense, finishing No. 19.

Pagano seems like an old-school guy. I understand the stance and the talk. But hopefully he and his staff will see that winning football, at least for right now, has a lot more to do with having a top quarterback and being able to hit opposing quarterbacks.

The new coach came to Indianapolis from Baltimore, where the Ravens made a habit of playing good run defense and getting a pretty good share of their offense out of Ray Rice.

While they advanced to the AFC title game twice during Pagano’s four years on the staff, they failed to win the conference or the Super Bowl.

Ultimately, owner Jim Irsay wants to see his Colts do more than that.

With the offseason in full swing, let’s take a look at one major question facing each AFC South team as it begins preparations for the 2012 season:

HOUSTON TEXANS

Can they keep Mario Williams?

He’s an incredible pass-rushing talent most every team would love to have. Yet the Texans might be in a position where they have no choice but to watch him move on as an unrestricted free agent.

They should have had planned better and not have allowed themselves to be in a position where the franchise tag is an impossibility. They cannot tag the defensive end-turned-outside linebacker for $22 million, so they either have to sign him or allow him to test the market. He talks affectionately about the Texans and what the franchise did for him, and that leads some to be optimistic about the team’s chances to hold on to him.

But once he’s out there and being courted, things can change in a big way with big dollars on the table.

Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed are great talents, but they’d be better, and the entire defense would be better, if Williams were part of it.

It would be difficult for the Texans to watch Williams lift someone else's defense and put up big sack numbers. He’s also been hurt a lot, however, and if that continues, maybe there won’t be so much regret if he moves on.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

How does the Peyton Manning saga sort out?

It’s widely presumed the team is parting ways with the four-time MVP quarterback.

It would have been impossible to imagine a year ago. But several unlikely developments have all come together at the same time -- the uncertainty surrounding Manning’s arm; the team’s ability to draft Andrew Luck; the dismissal of Bill Polian and Chris Polian in the front office as well as coach Jim Caldwell and most of his staff; the hiring of new general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano; other core players (Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, Robert Mathis) reaching the end of their contracts.

The soap opera has been long and drawn out. It needs to be resolved so the focus on the Colts can be about those new leaders, Grigson and Pagano, the messages they want to send, the guys they want on the roster, and the systems they intend to run.

Owner Jim Irsay has been sloppy as he’s tried to gain upper ground in a public relations battle with Manning, who has not comported himself perfectly, either, as he’s tried to manipulate the story. But for the health of the organization and for the benefit of Manning going forward, this thing needs closure.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Who can they add to help Blaine Gabbert?

No team should do more to assess the free-agent market for wide receivers than the Jaguars, who had a terrible, insufficient group last season.

Mike Thomas can be a good slot guy, but if the Jaguars really want to maximize Gabbert’s chances of success in his second season, he needs his primary targets to be much better. Jacksonville has plenty of cap room, and a new staff can sell someone like Vincent Jackson on the chance to be an unquestioned No. 1 and be paid like it.

Beyond the people he will be throwing to and the ones who will be protecting him, Gabbert’s new coaches will be a big piece to his progress. Can coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson get Gabbert more confident in the pocket and better able to focus on his reads than on the people around him?

The team has talked of having a better veteran backup behind Gabbert to help him. The Jags need that guy to be a safety net, too. It’s possible the 2012 Jaguars can compete for a playoff spot, provided they get sufficient play from their quarterback.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Can they become more of a playmaking defense?

The Titans got great contributions from several rookie defenders -- middle linebacker Colin McCarthy and defensive tackles Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug will be a big part of things going forward. So will strongside linebacker Akeem Ayers, who wasn’t as productive in his rookie season as the Titans hoped.

Will the team be able to find more playmakers to fill out their defense? Odds are cornerback Cortland Finnegan will depart as a free agent, and although the team hopes to re-sign Jordan Babineaux as one starting safety, it should be looking for an alternative to another of its free agents, Michael Griffin.

The Titans would be well served to find someone with more upside as a playmaker in Griffin’s spot. And although they still expect big things from Derrick Morgan, it’s again time to find a consistent pass-rushing defensive end.

They need to rush better from everywhere, which is why they hired Keith Millard as a multi-position pass-rush coach.

Getting bigger up front didn’t necessarily pay off the way they planned. Stopping the run first was a theme, and they finished 24th in run defense.

Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

Why Peyton Manning won’t be playing for the Texans, from John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Without a discount, Mario Williams won’t be affordable for the Texans, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Putting it all on Manning is a great PR move by Jim Irsay, but Bob Kravitz on the Indianapolis Star isn’t convinced it’s a great football move.

Mike Chappell of The Star with the paper’s rundown of its conversation with Irsay.

“Why at this stage of this crude, clumsy campaign should Peyton Manning trust Jim Irsay?” Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! examines the question.

Bill Polian thinks the public back-and-forth will help the two sides reach a resolution, says Alex Marvez of FoxSports.com.

Clark Judge of CBSSports.com thinks it was a smart move for Irsay to say what he did.

The 30-story Lombardi Trophy is gone, says Zak Keefer of the Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Shahid Khan continues the evolution of the Jaguars with the hiring of team president Mark Lamping, says Joe Wilhelm Jr. of the Daily Record.

Tennessee Titans

Defensive tackle Lamar Divens passed up the Bucs hoping the Titans would call. And Tennessee has signed the former Vanderbilt and Tennessee State player, says John Glennon.

Former Colts GM Bill Polian joins Pardon The Interruption to lend them Five Good Minutes.

Gene Wojciechowski does a nice job in this piece of recounting Joe Montana’s separation from the 49ers and comparing it to what’s unfolding for Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts.

“NFL history repeats itself. The circumstances aren't exactly the same, but they're similar enough. Bottom line: Divorce proceedings between a generational player and the franchise he helped make famous are never easy. ‘It was horribly difficult,’ (Niners team president Carmen) Policy said the other day by phone, describing Montana's departure from the 49ers in 1993. ‘At that time he had won four Super Bowls. He was the quintessential comeback kid. He was so revered in the community, so loved in the locker room.

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Frederick BreedonIt's difficult to miss all the signs that point to the Colts separating from QB Peyton Manning.

"In a strong, strong way there are similarities in terms of what Peyton Manning has done for that franchise in Indianapolis. You almost can't think of the franchise without thinking of Peyton Manning. … To separate is really, really difficult and heart wrenching."

But I have to disagree with Wojciechowski’s conclusion. He believes the Colts should do whatever necessary to hold on to Manning.

“Maybe you push back the March 8 due date on Manning's $28 million option bonus. Maybe you say, ‘I want you to begin and end your career wearing the horseshoe, but you've got to work with me on this $28 mil. Can we restructure it?’

“Maybe you tell him, ‘Come back, play another year, help mentor (Andrew) Luck or RG3 and then we'll put together an organizational golden parachute for you. And if you play like pre-neck surgery Peyton, then we'll re-up you for another year or you go somewhere as a free agent.’

“Professional. Reasonable. Logical.”

But not feasible.

The NFLPA tells me the first renegotiated of a contract can take place at any time. Then the second cannot happen within a year if it causes a salary increase over the first redo.

So Manning's contract isn’t the big issue, actually.

The issue is every move the Colts have made since the end of the season has been intended to set up a fresh start and a new era. And as much as the Colts love Manning and appreciate his work for them, finding a way to keep him on a team that’s going to undergo a major rebuild under a new GM with a new coach and staff and with the No. 1 pick coming to town is impractical.

It’s too late to take the path Woj wants, and while taking it is in some way the noble thing to do to preserve what’s been a beautiful thing, it’s not the practical thing to do for the long-term health of the franchise.

It’s in no way easy. It’s incredibly emotional for all parties involved.

The odds that all these factors would arrive at the same time were incredibly low: Manning’s continued uncertain health; the secondary bonus coming due that triggers the remainder of his contract; the Colts’ terrible season without him that resulted in the No. 1 pick; the availability of Luck with that pick; Irsay’s frustration with Bill Polian and Chris Polian coming off that failed season that led to their dismissals; the hiring of Ryan Grigson as the new GM; the removal of Jim Caldwell; the hiring of Chuck Pagano as the new coach; looming decisions on three old-guard guys heading to free agency -- center Jeff Saturday, receiver Reggie Wayne and defensive end Robert Mathis.

If Irsay had decided to attempt to load up for a three-season push for another Super Bowl with Manning, I wouldn’t have had a problem with it. But he either had to go all-in in such fashion, or bail and start anew.

He’s already well down the path to the second strategy. And the Colts brass needs to line up with the approach Policy took with Montana.

There is a Jim Irsay-Manning meeting looming. There is a lot of talk about a decision still to be made. It's hard for me to imagine Irsay hasn't already made it and we aren't just waiting for it to play out.

The Colts held out too much hope for a Peyton Manning return early on, then didn’t do well enough scaling things down as they went 2-14. That’s the view of the team’s former offensive line coach, Pete Metzelaars, who is now Buffalo’s tight ends coach.

Here’s a snippet from comments he made today in a transcript provided by the Bills.

“We were so dependent on (Manning) and what he did. The whole offensive structure was built upon what he could do and how he did it. The way his injury took place, there was always kind of the thought that, ‘Well, he could come back, he might come back, maybe the recovery time is going to be X.’ So we found ourselves kind of holding out hope, ‘Well, let’s not change everything because there’s a chance he’s going to come back and when he comes back then we’re going to run it this way.’ Unfortunately, he never did come back. So we got stuck with kind of trying to change in midstream and put some things together, and the people we had trying to do some of the things that Peyton did, even then we cut it down, but obviously they’re not Peyton Manning."

Obviously, they should have realized that without Manning -- even for an unspecified time -- they needed to change everything. Doing so might have allowed them a better chance to win.

Not doing so meant the end for Bill Polian, Chris Polian, Jim Caldwell and most of his staff including Metzelaars.

But it also means the franchise is going to get Andrew Luck.