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It’s ugly in Indianapolis.

At 0-7, the Colts are talking about sticking together, improving and giving themselves a chance to win.

But as they prepare for a trip to Nashville for a Sunday meeting with the Titans at LP Field, they are a severely broken team. Where they would be with Peyton Manning is an interesting hypothetical question, but we’re dealing with realities. And those realities are the sort that will test the franchise’s stitching -- seamwork that might not hold together when this is all over.

Who’s at fault? Everyone’s got a hand in it, but let’s look at the Colts from a couple of angles.

A big cover-up: It’s not a secret that Manning has helped cover up a lot of flaws and allowed the franchise to under-address certain areas.

The Colts during the Manning era have never been much concerned with size, always valuing speed and instincts more. They’ve never worried about stocking special teams with any veteran backups, in part because they spend their money on stars or adding a high-quality return man. They’ve settled for being below average running the ball. And they’ve won despite a general inability to stop the run.

Without their four-time MVP running the offense, all those things are magnified in ways they’ve never been before.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re built to have Manning at the controls, and he’s been there all the time from the very beginning in 1998 until opening day this season.

There are maybe two teams and markets in the league that would not trade for what the Colts have done since 1999. Twelve consecutive playoff seasons followed by one complete dud? Where do I sign up for that?

Construct questions: That said, regardless of a serious neck surgery to the star quarterback, what exactly was the plan in the secondary? Is an evaluation that leaves Jacob Lacey, Terrence Johnson, Kevin Thomas and Chris Rucker as cornerbacks Nos. 2 through 5 good enough? Absolutely not.

The Colts get credit for adding a couple of outside veterans this season -- linebacker Ernie Sims, and defensive ends Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton. But the drafting has dropped off.

Set aside the most recent class, as it’s too early to judge.

The Colts drafted 41 players from 2005 through 2010. I count one star, safety Antoine Bethea, and two guys who can become stars, linebacker Pat Angerer and receiver Austin Collie (if he’s working with Manning). Running back Joseph Addai is a good fit who does more than people think. And receiver Pierre Garcon and cornerback Jerraud Powers have been pretty solid starters.

Sure, the Colts drafted higher in the five years before. Still, those classes produced five guys who rank among the best players of their generation at their positions: tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, safety Bob Sanders, and receiver Reggie Wayne. The next tier provided steady starters on the offensive line (Jake Scott, Ryan Diem) and at linebacker (David Thornton).

That list is more than a third of a starting team, a big-time core. As those guys age or disappear, I'm not seeing a core in waiting.

Colts president-turned-vice chairman Bill Polian said recently on his radio show that they needed to have done better recently, particularly at defensive tackle and cornerback.

And there is a domino effect to the problem. Find Tarik Glenn’s ultimate replacement at left tackle in 2007, and you don’t need to use your top pick in 2011 on Anthony Castonzo. Hit on Donald Brown in the first round in 2009, and Delone Carter might not be necessary in the fourth round in 2011.

The Polians: Bill Polian has been pulling back and yielding responsibility to his son, GM Chris Polian. (Chris politely declined to be interviewed for this story.)

We don’t yet have much tape on Chris Polian, so to speak. Bill Polian is a good talent evaluator who has had success in three NFL stops and has done well to build a team with which Manning has won. But Bill Polian also has overseen those recent draft drop-offs.

His strong-willed personality is part of what has made him good at his job, and his big-picture assessment of important league issues is as intelligent as anyone’s. He’s got clout and influence that extend beyond Indianapolis.

Stylistically, he’s a stubborn and demanding boss. There are indications from within that, without the steady stream of personnel hits he provided earlier in his tenure, some inside the building are tiring of the way things are run.

Bill Polian recently talked about how Curtis Painter's play vindicates the team for having faith in him, but failed to mention that faith was so strong that the team signed Kerry Collins to a $4 million contract shortly before the season started and handed him the starting job.

I suspect Bill Polian has the backing of owner Jim Irsay for as long as he wants it. That would ensure safety for Chris Polian, too.

Bill Polian made the Manning-over-Ryan Leaf call in 1998. Because of the way Leaf busted, people forget that was a coin flip at the time, that Leaf was regarded as a big-time prospect just as much as Manning was. Polian called it correctly, built a team that’s been to two Super Bowls and won one, got a new stadium built, and greatly enhanced the value of Irsay’s franchise.

Cryptic messages: Further complicating things is Irsay, who clearly gets a kick out of being the center of NFL attention in the Twitter-verse but has undermined some of his people with it.

He announced the team added Collins while coach Jim Caldwell was conducting his daily news conference. It did Caldwell no favors, as he appeared completely out of the loop.

Most recently, following the 62-7 loss in New Orleans on Sunday night, Irsay provided this gem:

“Titanic collapse, apologies 2 all ColtsNation...problems identifiable;solutions in progress but complex in nature/ better days will rise again”

A day later, he added:

"Just because you perceive problems on the horizon,and you possess solutions..doesn't mean they are avoidable and implementation is instant"

Solutions in progress, but complex in nature. That sounds to me like what would be written in big silver letters on the lobby wall of a consulting company on a TV show. Or a clever, but far-too-long name for a band.

It also sounds like change is going to come.

Coaching questions: While Bill Polian recently said that adding Jim Tressel to the staff as a replay consultant was Caldwell’s idea, it’s a weird-looking move that’s made some of us wonder whether a bigger role awaits the former Ohio State coach.

Caldwell does a nice job managing personalities, looking at things philosophically and staying on message. I believe he’s a good teacher, and his patient, quiet style is generally healthy for a team with a good share of veteran stars.

But he has blind spots, too, and is hardly a strategy master. There are bound to be significant changes at the conclusion of what’s sure to be a dreadful season, and he’ll be at the front of the line.

If he does the best job we can remember at holding a terrible, ineffective team together, is that enough? I’d guess not.

Injuries: This team gets hurt too much. There is a huge element of bad luck to it, of course. But is there something bigger at work as well?

Last season as quality players went down, Manning helped some role players such as tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Blair White emerge. This season, guys such as linebacker Gary Brackett and safety Melvin Bullitt were lost for the season early, and there's been a revolving door on the offensive line because of injuries.

The Colts are constantly testing their depth and shuffling the back end of their roster. There is only so much shuffling a depth chart can handle.

I believe they need to attempt some change that might have a positive effect on their overall health -- whether it be adopting new training philosophies, altering how they evaluate prospects or changing personnel philosophies.

It's easy to ask them to figure out why they tend to suffer so many injuries, and it's hard to find an answer. But some sort of shift is due, even as we know it comes with no guarantee of better health.

When the current approach is failing, it's OK to try something else. It's not admitting some sort of failure; it's merely part of a necessary process of evaluating and revising operations.

Suck for Luck: Given a chance to draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, I think the Colts would. Bill Polian can give Chris Polian the guy expected to be the NFL's next great quarterback, and Chris Polian's legacy would be built on a fantastic cornerstone.

But there is no losing on purpose to get in position for Luck. You think Wayne or Mathis is interested in such a master plan?

Said veteran center and team tone-setter Jeff Saturday: “I'll steal a Robert Mathis quote: 'I ain't sucking for anybody.'”

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

The AFC South is the Texans' for the taking, writes Jerome Solomon.

The Texans are now preparing for Kerry Collins, says John McClain.

Wade Phillips’ reputation helped him get the team’s attention, says Jeffrey Martin.

Five key questions from McClain.

DeMeco Ryans is ready to go, says McClain.

McClain goes game-by-game and predicts the season.

Indianapolis Colts

Jim Tressel will start when the Colts get to their seventh game, says Phil Richards.

It will be strange to see someone other than Peyton Manning under center, says Mike Chappell.

Phillip. B. Wilson checked the obits and didn’t see the Colts.

Anthony Gonzalez and Blair While expect to be ready for the opener.

A defense of Donald Brown from Nick Pease.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton are handling the criticism, says Vito Stellino.

The Jaguars elected six captains, says Tania Ganguli.

Mike Lockley’s $20,000 fine will be taken out of his practice squad salary, says Tania Ganguli. To fine a guy making this little that much is ridiculous.

Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson is now focused on football, says Jim Wyatt.

Undrafted corner Chris Hawkins got a late scare on cut day, says John Glennon.

Glennon looks at how the Titans schedule sets up early.

ANDERSON, Ind. -- It’s trendy to call the Colts aging and to view the Texans and even the Jaguars as up-and-comers in the AFC South.

But if Indianapolis is healthy, it’s awfully risky to be ahead of the curve regarding its demise.

This is a team that lost a ton of talent to injury last season and still won the division at 10-6. It’s added some nice pieces on defense through bargain-basement free-agency. It drafted two offensive tackles who should be pillars, and also selected a short-yardage back.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about a big rebound year, and most teams aren’t even talking rebound when it comes to following a division title.

“I think it’s really the same team,” middle linebacker Gary Brackett said.

The same team is a major threat to win the division and compete for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Should it break through for the third Super Bowl appearance of the Peyton Manning era, a huge prize awaits: The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium.

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. Manning’s health.

He spoke after signing his contract and has been seen around the team a couple of times during training camp at Anderson University. But like in 2008 following offseason knee surgeries, he’s not practicing.

This time it’s a result of neck surgery in May. It’s the second year in a row Manning had a neck procedure after the season. But he and the team have expressed confidence that all he needs is time and rehabilitation. It’s unlikely that a five-year, $90 million contract would have gotten done if the medical staff and management had any doubts.

While the Colts move forward without Manning, his absence also puts them in limbo. No matter how strongly they spin Curtis Painter’s performance, the defense isn’t being pushed in practice the way it would be if Manning was running the other side.

And no matter how precise the routes, how good the blocking or how well-timed the play, the offense will still need to sync it all up with the star quarterback once he returns.

That knee in 2008 limited him early, when the team struggled out of the gate. Coming back from a neck injury, Manning is less likely to have any sort of mechanical issues or physical limitations that affect his passing. That’s one case for expecting a better start after so much missed time.

The timetable for his return is unknown. You know the drill: They say he’s progressing well, that they are optimistic, etc., and no one outside a very tight circle has any real idea when he will re-emerge. He was spotted once throwing with what a witness called “decent velocity.” Hey, encouraging news is encouraging news.

2. Is the secondary deep enough?

Last season, the Colts were stretched virtually everywhere. Aaron Francisco wasn’t on the team for opening day, ranking as the fourth or fifth option at strong safety, and he played a good share of the season as the starter.

Behind free safety Antoine Bethea and re-signed and healthy strong safety Melvin Bullitt, there are unproven options including Al Afalava, Joe Lefeged, Mike Newton, David Caldwell and Chip Vaughn.

And after the top three corners -- Jerraud Powers, Justin Tryon and Jacob Lacey -- there also isn’t proven depth.

“At the safety position, I’m confident that we’re going to get two guys that will emerge there,” Colts vice chairman Bill Polian said. “We see enough signs to know that there is quality in that group.

“I also think there is some quality in the backup corners. Kevin Thomas is one of them. There are some interesting guys, and they’ll play themselves on or off the roster based on the preseason. But based on what I’ve seen thus far, I’d say we’ve got a good group and one or two guys will emerge.”

They will all benefit, of course, from a better pass rush. And if Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are better supplemented by Jerry Hughes and Jamaal Anderson on the edges and Tommie Harris provides a solid nickel push in the middle, they could have one.

3. Will the passing game have enough consistent weapons?

The ability of the 2010 Colts to get production from the likes of tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Blair White was remarkable.

But if they can’t count on often-injured receiver Anthony Gonzalez or Austin Collie, who was shut down last season after concussion issues, it will be harder to make things go again.

Reggie Wayne is in fantastic shape and working hard, and will be a key target for Manning as always. Dallas Clark is back from a wrist injury. If the Colts are calling plays for those two and Pierre Garcon, Collie and Gonzalez, they can be potent. If the group shrinks, the effort is more exhausting.

Manning averaged 6.92 yards per attempt in 2010. That’s the lowest mark in his career outside of his rookie season (6.5). The Colts need to find more big plays and move the ball with a little less effort to be the kind of team they want to be.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

If the Colts get a significant contribution out of Anderson, Harris or linebacker Ernie Sims, it’ll be a win. All three signed cost-effective one-year deals that amount to low-risk, high-reward scenarios. Polian said in a normal year, the market wouldn’t have given the team an opportunity to sign players like these, veterans who are all ideally suited for Indy’s defense. If they get something from two of them, it will make for a home run. Three-for-three amounts to a grand slam. Harris looks very good so far, while Sims is recovering from an appendectomy.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Polian was singing Philip Wheeler’s praises and saying that while the team loves starting strongside linebacker Pat Angerer, it loves Wheeler too. But he failed to hold the job last season and should be able to win and hold a starting job by now. Brody Eldridge gets a mention, too. He had knee surgery after last season, and a setback means he hasn’t seen the practice field yet. They need him to be part of the run game.

OBSERVATION DECK

• Delone Carter is coming into a perfect situation as a rookie. He’s unlike any of the Colts' other running backs and should get chances in short yardage and goal-line situations. If Javarris James ran for six touchdowns last season, Carter could run for 12 this fall. The Colts can continue to praise Donald Brown, but with Joseph Addai back and Carter in the fold, when does Brown get on the field?
• It was a surprise to find Lacey as the No. 2 cornerback at the start of camp. He was better as a rookie than in his second season. And he can be an effective piece of the secondary. But I’d bet on Tryon passing him before opening day.
• After one long and hot afternoon practice session, two players stuck around to catch machine-thrown balls: Wayne and Bethea. Those are some solid veterans and the kind of guys any team would like to have leading the way.
• Manning didn’t react well to TV crews that saw a recent throwing and running session. My understanding is that the Earth is still spinning, however. I understand being private, but everything and everyone cannot always be controlled. Did I miss the catastrophic outcome?
• The buzz is good on Hughes, and with him and Anderson in the mix, the Colts may pace Freeney and Mathis better. That could make for fresher stars in December and January.
• They won’t talk until after the season, but as of now I’d expect the Colts to try to keep both Wayne and Mathis with new contracts.
• Jacques McClendon or Joe Reitz could be an upgrade over Kyle DeVan at left guard. The big question on the line to me -- presuming Anthony Castonzo takes over left tackle reasonably quickly -- is right guard. Mike Pollak has had sufficient opportunity, and the team can aspire to be better there. Couldn’t they be better with Ben Ijalana there until he’s ready to displace Ryan Diem at right tackle?
• 'Tis the season for Garcon to prove he's a consistently reliable threat. He had too many drops and too many lapses last season. He needs to be more than fast. He spent more time with Manning this offseason, before the neck surgery, than he did last offseason.

Reading the coverage ...

Will lower rookie salaries invite a competing league? An interesting angle I had not considered from Scott Bolander.

Houston Texans

Wade Phillips looks to build on his track record for quick turnarounds, says Craig Malveaux.

Brad Maynard is the new punter, Ty Warren is getting a look, Lawrence Vickers is in play and Brian Cushing is almost back from January knee surgery, says John McClain.

It’s odd seeing so many quality players on the sideline for practice at this point, says McClain.

Given DeMeco Ryans' situation, Stephanie Stradley considers how guys come back from Achilles injuries.

Andre Johnson put the sell on Johnathan Joseph at Fred Bennett’s wedding.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' offensive line is something to worry about, says Bob Kravitz.

Curtis Painter is the No. 1 quarterback while Peyton Manning is out, writes Mike Chappell.

Reggie Wayne said he would not be in camp if his contract was an issue, writes Chappell.

Chappell’s reserving judgment on Jamaal Anderson.

Blair White is on the PUP list and we don’t know the injury, says Tom James.

With Charlie Johnson gone, the Colts have to sign a veteran tackle, says Stampede Blue.

Jacksonville Jaguars

So far Blaine Gabbert looks the part of a franchise quarterback, says Gene Frenette.

The defense is being paid handsomely, says Vito Stellino.

Marcedes Lewis isn’t looking for Antonio Gates money, says Tania Ganguli.

Aaron Kampman says free-agent acclimation varies player to player, writes John Oehser.

Keep defensive expectations reasonable, urges Shane Clemons.

Tennessee Titans

Will Barrett Ruud be an upgrade over Stephen Tulloch? John Glennon considers.

The Titans re-signed a significant trio in Ahmard Hall, Dave Ball and Jacob Ford, says Jim Wyatt.

Kenny Britt is still out, says Wyatt.

Matt Hasselbeck learned early from Brett Favre. David Boclair asks if Hasselbeck can now do the same for Jake Locker.

Peyton Manning commented on his Monday neck surgery to Mike Chappell.

Chappell's Wednesday story expanded on what he wrote a day earlier, and included this passage, the first we've heard from Manning on workouts during the lockout.

The latest surgery accentuates what has been an atypical offseason for Manning and the rest of the NFL. The lockout of players by owners is in its third month. Not only have players had to work out on their own, they have been prohibited from having any contact with teams.

"The unfortunate thing is I have had to do all of this on my own," Manning said. "I've been able to have no help from the Colts because of the lockout."

Although he'll be relatively idle for the next few weeks, Manning emphasized he and his teammates have gotten in significant work. Manning, backup quarterback Curtis Painter, tight ends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme, receivers Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon and Blair White, running back Donald Brown and others began gathering in various undisclosed locations April 1.

"We've had very good throwing sessions with Dallas and Gonzalez and Collie and everyone else," Manning said. "The timing and everything else really feels good."

That is not something the rest of the NFL wants to hear right now. Especially the Titans, with a new coaching staff, and the Texans, with a new defensive coaching staff.

It’s Peyton Manning's prerogative to be secretive about his offseason lockout work.

It’s Bob Kravitz’s prerogative to question it.

Radio friends in Indianapolis tell me Kravitz is being called a whiner for his piece today bemoaning Manning’s secret operations.

I'm looking for the right words to characterize the players' -- and by that, I mean Manning's -- insistence on working out in utter secrecy, keeping fans and media at bay.

Ridiculous.

Dumb.

Idiotic.

He has a point, frankly.

I’ve known since they wrapped up work in Chattanooga after a week in early May that Manning worked there with Dallas Clark, Curtis Painter, Jacob Tamme, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, and Blair White. I had no reason to mention it until now.

What horrors will befall Manning and the Colts offense now that I have revealed it?

Control is a vital ingredient to Manning; it’s a big part of what makes him great at what he does. I know fans generally do not care about media access. But there is a built-in contradiction there, because I also know they do care about what Manning is doing and saying.

If he was taking questions anytime between now and the first time he has to once the lockout is over and he’s obligated to, I’d ask him these:

• Why is it so important to be so clandestine?
• Why won’t a guy whose name is on the lawsuit determining what happens to football not up for commenting on it?
• What would it hurt to, at infrequent times convenient for you, talk with the local media and let your fans hear from you?
• Don’t you think the media has respected your privacy in a way that deserves you throw it a bone a bit more often in exchange?

I think, honestly, Manning’s secret ops are more habit and routine than anything. He works under Bill Polian who takes a similar tact on many things. And he’s entrenched enough in the way things unfold that if he feels it works for him, why change them?

It's hardly a federal issue.

But if it’s whining to wonder the things I am wondering here, then group me with Kravitz. I’ve been grouped with worse.

What wasn’t addressed in the draft and could be a free-agency focus for the Colts:

Safety: Melvin Bullitt may wind up a retainable restricted free agent. Even if they can keep him, safety is a thin spot that needs depth. Because the position is thin around the league, if Bullitt does become a free agent, he’ll be attractive to a lot of teams. The Colts have a glue guy in Antoine Bethea at free safety, but need a strong safety option.

Receiver: They’ve got a solid group here with Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez and even Blair White. But there are injury concerns with Collie and Gonzalez, and although the guys beyond Wayne can all be major contributors, none of them will be a clear-cut No. 1 option for the team when Wayne starts to slow. Perhaps they don’t have to worry about it for another year, but it’d be nice to have that guy in house.

Kicker: Adam Vinatieri is a free agent under any scenario. It makes sense to re-sign a reliable, clutch guy even if long-distance range may be a question. But if someone else makes him a big offer, the Colts will be in need.

Texas cornerback Aaron Williams might qualify as the best safety in a terrible safety draft, says Jeffrey Martin. Every team in the AFC South can use a safety.

Houston Texans

The Texans need to trade up for Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller or LSU corner Patrick Peterson, says Jerome Solomon.

Aldon Smith is still the pick at 11 in John McClain’s newest mock.

A blueprint for the Texans’ success from Lance Zierlein. Excellent stuff in here. The only piece I disagree with is moving Glover Quin to safety. I think it’s too early to make that decision and the team can still find a couple of quality safeties, particularly if the team is willing to shop in free agency when it arrives.

Is Amobi Okoye conceding he can’t play nose in the 3-4? Alan Burge examines.

Letting Vonta Leach leave might not be all bad, says Rivers McCown. I’m not so sure Leach will get a big deal elsewhere.

Indianapolis Colts

Best available player or an offensive lineman? That’s the question for the Colts, says Mike Chappell.

Chappell on the Colts and quarterback possibilities in the draft.

The Colts are looking through a broader lens for this draft, writes Chappell.

Blair White is working to build chemistry with Peyton Manning, says Joe Rexrode. Hat tip to Nate Dunlevy.)

Linebacker options for the Colts from Brett Mock.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are in flux at linebacker, says Tania Ganguli.

Pass defense is a big issue, says Vito Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

Late-round finds are great, but first-round choices can make or break a team, says John Glennon.

Would the Titans, should the Titans, take Cam Newton if he slides, asks Jim Wyatt.

Tracy Rocker gives the Titans a big resource on Nick Fairley, says Jim Wyatt.

Fairley says his sleep apnea is under control, says Glennon.

Who might want to trade up to No. 8?

INDIANAPOLIS -- As I filmed this, I had three things I wanted to say. I wanted to call it a Zapruder film, a Blair Witch Project tape, and I wanted to sign off saying I was sight unseen.

Of course I botched one of the three key elements, but that I used Blair White Project only shows you how focused I am on the Colts while in their hometown with none of them saying anything.

Onward. Be grateful I gave you a three minute, rather than three hour, tour.

In North Texans, Colts tight end Dallas Clark said he got out of his cast a couple weeks ago and said his wrist is recovering well.

“It’s doing a lot better,” he said. “The scar -- I had this hand-modeling career all set up. Look at those knuckles. You would buy a watch from that. The scar looks worse than it is.

“It’s doing better. It’s a long, long process. I was in a cast for three months. Got out of that mid-January, now I’ve been rehabbing ever since. It’s doing great, it’s just taking time to get range of motion, strength and all that back to it.”

On radio row, Clark spoke with Jonathan Hutton of 104.5 The Zone in Nashville, the station for which I work.

Clark was a major loss for the Colts in a season filled with injury issues. But the Packers had a comparable list and won the NFC.

He said he was surprised at what Indianapolis was able to do considering the people who went down.

“It was tremendous,” he said. “Give all the credit to everyone that stayed healthy, all the coaches and all the players that stepped in for the injured players. Jacob Tamme did a phenomenal job stepping in for me, Blair White did a phenomenal job stepping in for Austin [Collie]. All those guys, with all the revolving door of starters from week to week, for those guys to go out there and not only play well but to win the games needed to make the playoffs, it was special.

“Obviously that’s not our goal, our goal is to win the whole thing. So it’ll be counted as a disappointing season. But you throw all that in there and to get as far as they did, it’s pretty impressive. Give a lot of credit to those players and those coaches.”

With the season over for the AFC South, I thought I’d collect all the decisive moments we highlighted on Tuesdays.

You were giant contributors to this weekly award with your responses to my weekly post seeking input. I appreciate that.

So I'm going to ask for your feedback on this once more -- let's sort through the 17 moments recapped below and debate the merits of the one you think outranks the rest.

Make your case in the comments here or in a note to my mailbag. I will sort through what you have to say and revisit this to award the AFC South Decisive Moment of 2010.

If it's a positive play, think how much that trophy or plaque may mean to the winner? And you'll have influenced the selection. So powerful.

Here's a quick refresher course. Feel free to click through them all to assist in your recollection.

Week 1-- Houston running back Arian Foster's fourth-and-1 conversion in the Texans’ win over the Colts.

Week 2 -- Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson's 34-yard touchdown catch on fourth-and-10 late in regulation during the Texans' overtime win at Washington.

Week 3-- Titans safety Michael Griffin's downing of a New York Giants’ punt at the goal line that set up the Titans for a quick nine points.

Week 4 -- The pass interference penalty against Titans safety Chris Hope that gave Denver 49 yards and set the Broncos up for a winning touchdown.

Week 5 -- Titans return man Marc Mariani's 74-yard kickoff return that set up Tennessee’s go-ahead touchdown last in Dallas.

Week 6 -- Johnson’s 11-yard touchdown catch with 28 seconds left that gave the Texans a win over Kansas City.

Week 7-- Titans defensive tackle Jason Jones and cornerback Alterraun Verner combining on a forced fumble and recovery deep in Titans territory to help keep the Titans in range of the Eagles.

Week 8 -- Jacksonville linebacker Justin Durant's big goal-line stop that capped a goal line stand against the Cowboys and preserved the Jaguars’ lead.

Week 9 -- Michael Vick of the Eagles keyed two plays that converted a second-and-26 for Philadelphia in its win over Indianapolis.

Week 10 -- Jaguars safety Sean Considine's hit and forced fumble on Houston tight end Joel Dreessen that was recovered by Durant and allowed for the Hail Mary pass that won the game for Jacksonville.

Week 11-- The Jaguars defense made a big stand and forced a three-and-out by Cleveland late in Jacksonville’s win over the Browns.

Week 12-- Kassim Osgood's offensive pass interference penalty on a short throw to Mike Thomas that did a lot to stall the Jaguars against the Giants.

Week 13 -- Reggie Wayne's drop in overtime that forced a Colts’ punt and gave the ball to the Cowboys, blowing a chance to move to the winning points.

Week 14 -- Osgood’s forced fumble and Montell Owens' recovery that set up the Jaguars for a go-ahead touchdown against Oakland.

Week 15 -- The Titans two fourth-down conversions and a fourth-down stop of the Texans in a Tennessee win over Houston.

Week 16-- Jacksonville return man Deji Karim's mishandling of the overtime kickoff against Washington left the Jaguars pinned deep and helped lead to a David Garrard interception that lost the game.

Week 17 -- Indianapolis receiver Blair White's 20-yard catch of a Peyton Manning pass that helped the Colts take advantage of a late Titans’ turnover and kick a game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter.

INDIANAPOLIS -- They trudged to the helmet painted on the turf at midfield, offering congratulations to the team that ended their season.

In time, the Colts might come to consider this pre-Super Bowl playoff exit the least painful and most dismissible of the seven they’ve endured during a nine-year run of postseason qualification. On Saturday night, of course, they were too close to it to think or speak that way.

They saw a blown opportunity in their 17-16 loss to the New York Jets in the opening round of the NFL playoffs.

So they’ll carry regret into the offseason, regret not so much about losing to the Jets, but losing to the Jets like that.

By blowing three leads.

The Colts were up 7-0, 10-7 and 16-14.

By watching the Jets convert five of seven third downs in the second half while they failed to convert two third-and-longs in the fourth quarter that left them settling for field goals.

The first, a third-and-7, produced only a 1-yard run by Dominic Rhodes against a heavy defensive-back set.

“They had seven DBs, they had 34, [cornerback Marquice] Cole at defensive end, it was 100 percent pass coverage,” Peyton Manning said. “That’s a lot of DBs. We just thought they’re not going to think we’re going to run it. We’ve got to be able to pick those up.”

The second, a third-and-6, was a Manning sprint out to the right and a throw to Blair White that looked to be a bit short on the right side. White couldn’t corral it as he went to the ground.

By allowing New York to keep the ball with a running-into-the-punter penalty, which resulted in two timeouts burned ahead of schedule and 34 fewer seconds on the clock when the Colts got the ball back.

Taj Smith was flagged despite trying to hold up Jets punter Steve Weatherford once he’d made contact.

“He did a good acting job and I should have played it more conservative, it just was a bad play on my part,” Smith said. “… They just said play it more smart and keep my head up.”

By allowing a 47-yard kickoff return with 53 seconds remaining that positioned the Jets for a quick drive and a field goal as time expired.

“It goes from putting a lot of pressure on the offense to putting a lot of pressure on the defense with that field position change,” Manning said.

The Colts aren’t used to watching that unfold with their offense on the sideline. They’re used to Manning and the offense making the other team’s offense squirm on the sideline, enduring a sense of helplessness.

“It’s just bad execution on our part,” left tackle Charlie Johnson said. “It’s bad because … I want to be careful here. You have to give them credit. They played a great game, but at the same time I feel like the better team didn’t win.”

It was the seventh exit in the Colts’ first game of the playoffs in Manning’s 11 trips to the postseason, the sort of context the Colts absolutely hate to have pointed out to them.

“We’ve been to the playoffs nine consecutive years. I don’t think this team has to explain itself to anybody as far as what we are doing in the playoffs,” linebacker Gary Brackett said. “A team’s pinnacle is to get to the playoffs and we’ve done that consistently.”

Said Johnson: “I think it’s bogus. I think there are some teams in the league that would love to have the success we’ve had, regardless of going to Super Bowls or not -- winning so many games over the years, winning 12 or more games however many years in a row, going to the playoffs nine straight years. There are a ton of teams that would take that and be happy with it.”

This exit will ultimately deserve a less harsh review than some others because of how deep the injury-riddled Colts had to dig along the way. They ended the game with Ken Hamlin at free safety. He signed Dec. 22 and was, at the very best, their fifth option at the position this season.

Coming into the game the question for Rex Ryan was, if his team couldn’t get past the Colts now, when might it ever?

Before Manning left the interview podium for the last time in what may be quite a long time, he offered a glimpse into how the 2010 Colts were looking at a potential playoff run, at how things might have been different this time.

“It would have been fun to have kind of gotten on a little run here, there would have been a different feeling,” Manning said. “I thought we would have been the underdog in every game. I thought we were the underdog tonight. We would have been the underdog going to Pittsburgh. That’s certainly a different feeling.

“Usually in the playoffs we’re always kind of usually the favorite to win, expected to win. This would have been a fun little run. This has been a fun little run, these last few weeks, we felt like they’ve all been playoff games. This was the best team we’ve played in some time. We certainly had a chance and just came up short.”

» Wild-card Final Word: NY Jets-Indy | Baltimore-K.C. | N.O.-Seattle | G.B.-Philadelphia

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Jets-Colts wild-card game:

Will the Colts target Drew Coleman? Peyton Manning’s going wherever he finds an open receiver. But the Jets emphasized adding cornerbacks after Pierre Garcon had a huge game against them in the AFC Championship Game. ESPN Stats & Info says that Manning really took off in that game when he started attacking the middle of the field. Surely Reggie Wayne and Garcon will run routes that take them there. But if Darrelle Revis and Cromartie do well on Wayne and Garcon, respectively, we’re going to see how the linebackers can handle Jacob Tamme and how the nickel, Coleman, can handle Blair White. I suspect there will be at least a couple of moments when Colts’ fans grimace and wonder how much of a difference Austin Collie would have made. But Indianapolis has enough to still be effective.

Can the coverage contain Brad Smith? The Colts can’t let a big special teams play be a factor, and Smith can be exceptionally dangerous as a kick returner. Indianapolis should take a touchback every chance it gets. Seriously. There are two significant categories where the Colts and Jets are night and day. This is one of them. The Jets' average drive starts at the 31.5-yard line, the best spot in the league. The Colts start at the 22.7, the worst. It’s fair to cringe every time Indianapolis fields a kick, and that’s not a knock on Dominic Rhodes, who’s been handling the job. There is just nowhere for him to go.

What happens inside the 20? The other night and day contrast between these teams is in red zone production. The Colts don’t have to call on Adam Vinatieri a lot because they are busy scoring touchdowns. When they get close, they get touchdowns 67.9 percent of the time, the best percentage in the league by a good margin. New York doesn’t play great red zone defense. The Jets allow TDs 60.5 percent of the time with Indy’s defense faring better (52.1). On offense, the Jets punch it in only 40 percent of the time. That’s a lot of numbers to get to my point: A lot of Nick Folk on the field isn’t going to win this game, I don’t expect.

In last season's AFC Championship Game, the upstart New York Jets were on their way to scoring their third straight road upset in the playoffs. They'd already knocked off a pair of division champions and led the Indianapolis Colts in the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium.

But the Colts outclassed the Jets in the second half and won easily to advance to the Super Bowl. The Jets had to regroup, knowing that to attain their Super Bowl dreams, they had to figure out a way to get past the Colts.

They won't need to look for them in the playoffs this year. The Jets and Colts will meet in the first round Saturday night, again in Indianapolis.

ESPN.com AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky and AFC East blogger Tim Graham break down the rematch.

Tim Graham: The first thought I have about the Colts is that Peyton Manning isn't going to win this game with his aura. Aside from past experience, the Jets don't have much reason to quake in their cleats Saturday night. They can beat this guy. Manning has proven to be a mortal without tight end Dallas Clark and receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez to target. Seventeen interceptions? Almost knocked out of the playoffs by the Jacksonville Jaguars? These Colts are a shadow of what we've come to know.

Paul Kuharsky: How about with his chakra, then? You've been spending too much time with Ricky Williams, dude. Has Manning been perfect? Hardly. But as Colts blogger Nate Dunlevy points out, and our ESPN Stats & Information confirms, Manning threw for 4,700 yards, tossed for more than 30 touchdowns, connected on 66 percent of his throws, had an interception rate of 2.5 percent and won 10 games. If that's a shadow of what you've known, you must really know Tom Brady’s 2007 season then. Because that was the only other time it has happened.

TG: Yeah, Manning won 10 games. So did Eli Manning and Josh Freeman. They didn't make the playoffs. The Colts' shadow doesn't have much to do with Peyton Manning slinging the ball all over the yard and racking up yardage. He's still great, but he's not a one-man show. If I were a Colts fan, my concern would be how they needed to close with four straight wins to avoid the embarrassment of being edged out of the playoffs by the Jaguars. The Jets, on the other hand, have shown to be a more complete team. That's how an erratic quarterback like Mark Sanchez can win one more game than Manning did and clinch a playoff berth weeks in advance.

PK: Well, Manning's always been crushed for being great in the regular season and not good enough in the playoffs. Congrats on being the first to hammer him for winning "only" 10 games and the division while throwing to Jacob Tamme and Blair White.

TG: That's what I mean. The Jets can contain those guys much easier than Clark and Collie. Plus, the Jets have been preparing for this matchup since last season's AFC Championship Game. They helplessly watched Manning carve the center of the field against them and realized immediately -- even though they had Darrelle Revis -- they needed more cornerbacks. Specifically with Manning in mind, the Jets traded for Antonio Cromartie and drafted Kyle Wilson in the first round. Previous starting cornerbacks Dwight Lowery and Drew Coleman gave them depth in nickel and dime packages. The Jets' biggest issue is at safety, where injuries have made them vulnerable.

PK: Manning has a bit of experience against teams with poor safety situations. His numbers against Houston and Jacksonville? Just nine touchdowns, one pick and a 101.5 passer rating. On the other side is the unspectacular Sanchez. I doubt Sanchez will be able to attack Aaron Francisco, the Colts' fourth-string strong safety, in a similar fashion, but we'll see. The Sanchize was near perfect in the first half of last season's AFC Championship Game. But the Jets asked him to throw only seven passes. After intermission, Indy greatly reduced his potency. The Colts didn't sack him and were credited with only four hits that day. The Colts' big-play potential from their Pro Bowl defensive ends was neutralized, and they still rolled to a 30-17 win. Of course, it might have had something to do with Manning throwing two-second half touchdowns to Sanchez's zero (and one interception). What happens this time if Dwight Freeney and/or Robert Mathis are able to introduce themselves to him a few times?

TG: Sanchez absolutely is the pivotal figure for the Jets on Saturday night. But, much like the personnel adjustments head coach Rex Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum made on the defensive side to thwart Manning, they made changes on offense with the playoffs in mind. Sanchez might not have progressed much in his second season, but he didn't have a sophomore slump either. He has gained another 11 months and 16 games of NFL experience since the last time he faced the Colts. Plus, the Jets' offense has the ability to come from behind, something it couldn't do before. Last season's Jets were all ground-and-pound, and if an opponent took a two-score lead, the Jets' chances to win were slim. Sanchez showed several times this year he can strike in crunch time. Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson out of the backfield give him much better weapons to go along with Braylon Edwards and tight end Dustin Keller.

PK: The most dramatic on-the-field difference in the Colts this year as compared to last is how they finished up running the ball and defending the run. Indianapolis enters the playoffs coming off four games in which they ran for 4.5 yards a carry and held opponents to 3.5 yards. Last year in their final four meaningful regular-season games, they were getting 3.5 yards and allowing 4.1 yards.

TG: Maybe the Colts will morph into the 1972 Miami Dolphins before our eyes.

PK: A month ago the Colts defense recommitted to playing fast and having fun. It's funny how a team can get away from such simple themes, especially when a return to them produces such fine results. Gary Brackett's been great. Fellow linebackers Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner have been quite good, even as rookies. Veteran Clint Session could return to take time from Conner. Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen's willing to send in whichever back is best suited for a situation or a matchup, so we could see any sort of mix of running backs Joe Addai, Dominic Rhodes and Donald Brown on Saturday night. They are running more than well enough to give the Colts a balance that makes Manning's play-action super effective.

TG: Momentum on the ground has been a concern for the Jets since their bye in Week 7. Tomlinson went from MVP candidate to looking like the worn out player the San Diego Chargers thought they were bidding farewell. But Shonn Greene and Tomlinson found some traction in the closing weeks. Let's not even factor in what the Jets did against the Buffalo Bills in the regular-season finale, even though their backups trampled the Bills' first-stringers for 276 yards.

PK: I’m always willing to toss out Buffalo. I don’t even really like wings.

TG: Yeah, but I know you still have a cache of Rick James 8-tracks. Anyway, the Jets ran the ball well against three of the NFL's best run defenses late in the year. They surpassed the Pittsburgh Steelers' league-leading average by 43 yards and the Chicago Bears' second-rated run defense by 34 yards. As for stopping the run, the Jets pride themselves on it and improved statistically this year. They ranked third this year at 90.9 yards a game and 3.6 yards a carry. But -- and this is a big one -- they allowed more than 100 yards in each of their games before the finale. The Steelers averaged 5.8 yards a carry. The Bears averaged 4.4 yards. That said, I would be willing to bet if the Colts wanted to try to run the Jets to death and not have Manning throw so much, then the Jets would be thrilled.

PK: Give me a little impersonation of Rex Ryan thrilled after winning this game.

TG: It probably would go a little something like this ... "Well, shoot, doesn't feel much better than that, to be honest with ya. We played like Jets today. It was a dogfight out there; I'll tell ya that much. Those Colts are sunthin' else. One thing I'll say about them: I saw Joseph Addai running like Lydell Mitchell out there and was, like, 'Whoa! Wait a second! We could be in for a long day here.' But our defense was flying around and eventually found a way to wrestle him down out there. I said earlier in the week this was personal with Peyton Manning, and they do a great job. He's great, and it's hard to get to him, but I just feel like we knew what to expect and were able to find a way to bear down and put all our chips in the center of the table and beat him. That guy's had my number and it feels good to know I can beat the guy when it counts. But I gotta give a ton of credit to our offense out there, too. Mark Sanchez played great and showed why we traded up to draft him. That right there's what we saw when we scouted him and just knew this guy was going to be a special player. Their crowd was tough with the way they were roaring at the opening kickoff I was, like, 'Whooo! Here we go!' It was full speed ahead. But one thing I should point out is that I broke out my lucky sweatshirt with the pizza stain this week." ... How would Jim Caldwell react to a Colts win Saturday night?

PK: I can hear him, his voice just the same as if they'd have lost: "We're pleased to have beaten a good football team, a quality football team. It's gratifying that our work this week paid off. I shared with you some of the examples of the studiousness I encountered during the preparation week. You saw the rewards of that. We'll enjoy it, we should enjoy it, it was hard-fought and we’re fortunate. We will have to do those same things to prepare for Pittsburgh. It’s a tough place to play, an excellent football team. It's a new challenge. It will be fun to see them get out there and see what they can do."

TG: In that case, I'm glad I'll be covering the Jets' locker room, win or lose. It'll be more interesting. I think the Jets have a better chance to win the game than a lot of prognosticators are giving them credit for. But even if they can't pull off the upset, they'll face a lot of questions as an organization. With all of the negative attention they've generated this season, a loss against the team they spent a year preparing for should lead to considerable introspection in Florham Park. Should we make picks?

PK: Sure. I pick St. Elmo. Make a reservation.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 10
Preseason Power Ranking: 1

Biggest surprise: Substitutes called into action because of injuries played very well. Jacob Tamme is not the player Dallas Clark is. But once Clark was done with a wrist injury, Tamme was a consistently productive piece of the offense. He was better than plenty of No. 1 tight ends in the league in terms of his work as a receiver. Justin Tryon was a find, rookie linebackers Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner are good players, Aaron Francisco was better than serviceable, Blair White was a contributor, and Dominic Rhodes was a smart late add. When all those guys and a lot more who were slated to be spot starters are in the mix, you’re not supposed to win your division.

Biggest disappointment: The injuries. The Colts finished the season with 17 players on injured reserve. They started 14 different players on offense and 19 on defense. By my count, 14 key players missed at least two games. The guys on that list -- Gary Brackett, Melvin Bullitt, Clark, Austin Collie, Brody Eldridge, Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, Kelvin Hayden, Antonio Johnson, Jacob Lacey, Daniel Muir, Jerraud Powers, Bob Sanders and Clint Session -- sat out 44.2 percent of games they could have played. Sure, every team deals with issues, but these were extreme and few teams could have survived them and made the playoffs.

Biggest need: The offensive line. Team president Bill Polian admitted he underestimated Rodger Saffold in the draft and the St. Louis Rams left tackle could have been a nice piece for Indianapolis. The Colts made do, again, and the group they’ve gone with in recent weeks has shown marked improvement and has been getting very nice push in the run game. Still, Peyton Manning needs more time and a more reliable run game from Day 1. The Colts must invest in upgrading the offensive line through the draft, free agency or both.

Team MVP: Manning. He had a poor stretch during a losing streak. But the Colts needed him to throw, and he set a new league record for pass completions with 450 while helping turn some less-than-ideal targets into viable options.

Decisions loom: The Colts generally hang on to their people, but as they evaluate the injury issue and try to move forward, it may be time to conclude they can’t depend on guys such as Sanders and Gonzalez. You can’t blame a player for getting hurt and you can’t forecast bad luck. But you can get a sense of who may be more likely to get hurt than the average guy. How do you plan when you have little reasonable expectation of getting a long-term contribution from a player? They spent a third-round pick on USC corner Kevin Thomas, who had an injury history. He immediately got hurt and was not available at all his rookie year.