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The National Football Post's Joe Fortenbaugh has a nice piece reviewing AFC South draft trends.

Here’s a nugget on each team with a thought from me:

Fortenbaugh: “Since 2001, the Colts have drafted only three offensive tackles. To put that in perspective, take note that over the last 10 years the team has spent the same amount of selections on kickers and punters (3).”

Kuharsky: It’s significant and it’s time to make a substantial investment. But when a team has a left tackle who plays for nine years and goes to three Pro Bowls (Tarik Glenn) and gets steady play from its right tackle for eight years (though Ryan Diem slipped last season) there isn’t cause for huge expenditures at the spot. They failed in a second-round attempt (Tony Ugoh in 2007) to replace Glenn.

Fortenbaugh: “Since 2001, the Jaguars have drafted nine defensive ends, but only two (Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves) have been selected within the top 100 picks.”

Kuharsky: Jaguars GM Gene Smith worked to offset that by bringing in free agent Aaron Kampman last offseason. And now it appears quite possible Smith will spend the 16th overall pick on a defensive end to complete the makeover of the line that included their top four picks from 2010.

Fortenbaugh: “Since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach in 2006, the Texans have drafted exactly 19 offensive players and 19 defensive players.”

Kuharsky: It’s nice to populate the roster in a balanced fashion. But if Houston does as it should and looks to fill a load of defensive holes in this draft, these numbers will tip to the defensive side.

Fortenbaugh: “Since 2005, the Titans have selected an average of 2.0 wide receivers per draft. Tennessee has landed at least one wideout in each of the past six drafts and has selected as many as three wide receivers two times in the last six years.”

Kuharsky: The all-star receiver roster of those past six drafts: Courtney Roby, Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Jonathan Orr, Paul Williams, Chris Davis, Joel Filani, Lavelle Hawkins, Kenny Britt, Dominique Edison, Damien Williams and Marc Mariani. The lone Pro Bowl appearance was Mariani last year -- as a return man.

We see teams go first-to-worst or worst-to-first all the time in the NFL -- except in the AFC South, where the Colts have won the division crown in six of eight chances since realignment and have won 12 games or more seven years running.

Indianapolis’ successes, and its four-time MVP quarterback, make it hard to predict a dramatic, upside-down season in the division.

The question is more about who can close the gap on Manning and the Colts; how the Texans, Titans and Jaguars stack up; and if one of them can find a door into the playoffs as a wild card.

The Texans and Jaguars begin their push with camp practices Friday. The Titans open Saturday, and the Colts are on the field Monday.

FOUR BIG QUESTIONS

Houston Texans: How does the defense better defend the pass?

Veteran corner Dunta Robinson is gone, first-round pick Kareem Jackson is in as the team’s top corner. Is a secondary of Jackson and Glover Quin at corner, Eugene Wilson at free safety and Bernard Pollard at strong safety enough to slow down opposing offenses? Not without two other major developments.

The defensive front must apply more consistent and effective pass pressure. A monster season from Mario Williams, a big second year from Connor Barwin and more toughness from Amobi Okoye could do the trick. Okoye in particular needs a big camp or he could lose reps to rookie Earl Mitchell. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and a better run game could help a great deal, too -- if Houston is able to put up big points, some opponents won’t be able to take advantage of that secondary enough to keep up.

Indianapolis Colts: How do the receivers shake out?

If Anthony Gonzalez is healthy and back to form, the Colts could be stacked at receiver. Provided Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie can build on what they did with Gonzalez out for all but the first game last season, the Colts should be four-deep at receiver with those three behind Reggie Wayne. With Wayne leading the way and tight end Dallas Clark also coming off a 100-reception season, Peyton Manning could have his best group of pass-catchers ever.

I think if everyone is healthy, everyone will get chances. Perhaps certain games and certain matchups will call for certain guys to be used more. But I can’t see Gonzalez, Garcon or Collie with a significantly minimized role unless one of them plays his way to the bench or is injured.

Jacksonville Jaguars: How will the defensive line rotation develop?

New line coach Joe Cullen will want his best guys on the field the most, but he’s also going to have to get them some rest so they can play fresh. Presuming Aaron Kampman and Derrick Harvey start at end and Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu start at tackle, who will be the guys behind them that ensure minimal drop-off?

Rookie ends Larry Hart and Austen Lane and rookie tackle D'Anthony Smith will all have opportunities as the Jaguars try to get to the quarterback a lot more often a year after collecting just 14 sacks. If the rush is better, watch the linebackers and secondary become better, too.

Tennessee Titans: Have the Titans cured their return game woes?

Things were so bad a year ago that when the Titans found guys who could fair catch punts while backing inside the 10-yard line it was considered a moral victory. Coach Jeff Fisher considers himself a return expert because of his own experience as a player. To his credit, he confessed he botched it last year by being overly reliant on unproven rookies. The solution? The Titans hope it’s unproven rookie Damian Williams, a third-round receiver out of USC.

If he’s muffing punts and kicks in camp, we should also see rookie Marc Mariani fielding punts, and we could see Kenny Britt back to fetching kickoffs. Merely being able to avoid mistakes shouldn’t be good enough. The Titans should expect to make plays in the return games.

HOTTEST SEATS

Colts: Offensive line coach Pete Metzelaars: He’s got the confidence and full backing of president Bill Polian and coach Jim Caldwell. But replacing legendary coach Howard Mudd is a large charge. And it’s widely held that the group he’s working with isn’t composed of great run-blockers and benefits a great deal in the passing game from Manning’s propensity for getting the ball out quickly. During summer workouts, players said that Metzelaars had already tinkered with some technique and re-energized the group.

Jaguars: David Garrard. Jacksonville’s quarterback is 32 years old, and while his term as a starter began relatively late, he’s at a point where a lot of people give him the underwhelming description of “he is what he is.” If things unfold according to how a play is drawn up, he can be good. But things rarely unfold like that. He can be too inaccurate and doesn’t execute in the clutch often enough. Good season or not, the Jaguars are expected to look to draft a first-round quarterback in 2011.

Texans: Kareem Jackson. You hate to be overly reliant on a rookie, but the Texans have put themselves in that spot. First-rounder Jackson has to be able to cover tightly and find the ball if Houston stands a chance to so much as split with the Colts while Manning is dropping back and looking into the Texans’ secondary. They could have eased the pressure on their new No. 1 corner with an option beyond Eugene Wilson at free safety, but failed to address the position at all.

Titans: Michael Griffin. Tennessee is counting on a lot of young guys who are taking on bigger roles to be productive. But even if they are all good, it may not matter if Griffin, a Pro Bowl safety in his second season, plays as poorly as he did in his third. Distracted by off-the-field personal issues, he bit on play-action, took terrible angles and missed tackles he has to make while the Titans' pass defense fell apart. That won’t work with two games against Manning, two against Matt Schaub and matchups against Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb.

SECRET WEAPON

Colts TE Brody Eldridge. The Colts did not make a major addition to their offensive line mix after Bill Polian called the group out for its Super Bowl performance. The stretch play, once a staple of their run game, has largely disappeared without edge blockers who can lead it effectively. But fifth-round pick Eldridge can be a big influence in this department. Expect him to displace Gijon Robinson. And watch him work effectively as a pass-catcher as well.

INTERIOR DESIGNS

All four AFC South teams could look different on the interior offensive line on opening day. The Colts are looking at busted left tackle Tony Ugoh as a guard. The Jaguars brought in Justin Smiley, could be finished with aging Brad Meester and haven’t been wild about Vince Manuwai’s play since he returned from a 2008 knee injury. The Texans added veteran Wade Smith and would like second-year man Antoine Caldwell to seize a spot. Those three lines need sorting out.

The Titans, who had a 2,000-yard rusher and gave up only 15 sacks, have also made changes, shifting left guard Eugene Amano to center to replace Kevin Mawae, an unsigned free agent, while inserting Leroy Harris in Amano’s old spot.

It’s possible all four teams run better up the middle and shield their signal-callers from the inside rush better than they did a year ago.

A pre-camp depth chart can tell us more about PR, seniority and staff loyalties than about who will be in up-in-the air spots come opening day.

That said, having one is better than not having one. And among our four franchises, only the Titans have one out so far.

I just got around to scanning the depth chart the Titans included as part of their training camp release and thought a few bullet points were worth mention and discussion.

• Though middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch was not with the team through the entire offseason as he tried to leverage a long-term deal, he is listed as the starting middle linebacker. Odds are he’s in camp in time -- his one-year restricted free-agent tender was signed in June. Colin Allred’s worked in his place, and it wouldn’t have been a surprise if coach Jeff Fisher put Allred with the first team to start to make a statement of his own.
• At outside linebacker, Gerald McRath and David Thornton are listed as the starters. But Fisher said during OTAs, while Thornton healed multiple injuries, that the veteran didn’t qualify as a starter then. McRath is suspended for the first four games. Will Witherspoon, listed behind McRath, was the team’s biggest free-agent addition and is unquestionably going to be one of the starters outside.
• Rookie third-rounder Damian Williams is listed as the front-liner at both punt returner and kick returner, with another rookie receiver, Marc Mariani, second at punt returner and Kenny Britt second at kick returner. Alvin Pearman is third at both and clearly only veteran insurance. But Pearman ranks third at running back, ahead of rookies LeGarrette Blount and Stafon Johnson.
• Elsewhere, rookies rate lowly, as you’d expect. First-round defensive end Derrick Morgan is third on one side behind Jacob Ford and Jason Babin.
• Defensive tackle Jovan Haye, the player I rate as most likely to be demoted out of the starting lineup, remains a starter ahead of Jason Jones and Sen’Derrick Marks.
• Cornerback Jason McCourty is the second starter, with Ryan Mouton and rookie Alterraun Verner behind him while Tye Hill is backing up Cortland Finnegan on the other side.

Again, it’s an unofficial depth chart they are nice enough to provide this early for us to pick apart. We’ll take similar looks at the others when we first see them.

Michael Kolodzy from Austin, Texas writes: I'm really frustrated as a Houston Texans fan to see that our head coach wants competition at every possible position except for one of the most truly important positions; especially important against ye olde' Peyton Manning. It feels like this draft was already too much about the future and some projects, i.e. rounds four and seven, and less about now and this season. Where is my head hunter free safety? I know what Eugene Wilson had done at NE, but he's not there anymore and he hasn't ever produced for Houston what they need in a stud free safety. Yet again this seems like another safe bet by Gary Kubiak which I think ultimately fails. SD felt they needed to pull the trigger and get one stud instead of a couple of decent guys, which is what I believe Houston really needed this year.

Paul Kuharsky: I largely agree. I don’t think there are sufficient ball skills in the secondary and I’d really like to see a top-flight centerfield type. When Wilson is at his best he tends to be aggressive coming forward, and if he’s last man back, that’s a bad formula.

Look, Jacksonville thinks a resurrected pass rush will help fix its secondary, and Houston thinks a more complete offense (with Tate) will help it keep the defense off the field more.

Will those approaches work? I’d sure like both better with Earl Thomas in the defensive backfield. But we have to see and remember that a team can’t solve everything.

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Jess Smith from parts unknown writes: Please give equal coverage to the Houston Texans -- if you read down your blog and count the number of entries dedicated to the Texans, and how many are dedicated to the other teams, I think you'll see my point -- your preferences (obviously a Titans fan, and you live there) should have no bearing on equal coverage for all teams in the division

Paul Kuharsky: I am often told I am inclined to be more critical of them than the other three in the division.

When the Colts were in the playoffs and Super Bowl, I wrote disproportionately about the Colts. When I was just at Jaguars minicamp I wrote a ton about them. At both time things were awfully quiet with the Texans (beyond recent rookie intros and Friday's revelation of Brian Cushing's suspension.)

In mid-June when I hope to be in Houston, I’ll be writing little about other teams and a lot of stuff on the Texans.

A small sample size, I’ve found, is usually not enough to judge on.

You can single-handedly produce a Texans post or conversation with a good or great question –- see the guy above you here -- but here we’ve spent Texans time on you counting posts instead, right?

I grew up a Giants fan, by the way. In the business I quickly came to root for good stories and good people.

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Chris Kirk in Indianapolis writes: How committed to Adam Vinatieri are The Colts? We have two return specialists coming to camp and it’s hard to see keeping a return guy plus Vinatieri… In theory doesn’t a healthy kicker free up a roster spot for a different specialist, i.e. a return specialist? What are the chances we cut Vinatieri for the rookie or another player likely to stay healthy. The presence of a hungry and talented younger option at kicker (undrafted Brett Swenson) tells me there may be an under the radar competition at kicker. I know it’s not as intriguing as the competition along our O-line but I hoped you’d share your thoughts.

Paul Kuharsky: I don’t see them carrying two placekickers, so if they like the kid and Vinatieri isn’t solid through camp and healthy coming out of it, it’s possible they’d make a change. They’d sure like the reliable and proven veteran to be the guy though, especially after being so patient with him last season.

They won’t keep two kickers and a punter except to get them through a couple weeks somewhere if there is an injury, I wouldn’t think. Pat McAee’s proved an excellent kickoff guy. But Matt Stover is gone and no matter how good Swenson is, it’s hard to turn things over to a kid.

Yes, two kickers/punters instead of three opens a spot. But they don’t like to dedicate one to a return specialist and injuries inevitably create a need for its use for something else. So Ray Fisher will have to show he can play corner in addition to returning and Brandon James will have to show value as a running back.

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Sam in Charlottesville, Va., writes: Check out David Garrard's rating on Pro Football Focus. In particular, look at the number of times he was hit while throwing, consider the number of batted passes, look at his sacks again. I really want to know, given what we all know about the number of times he was ht overall, the number of sacks he absorbed, and the number of hits he took while throwing, how anyone can presume to judge him "not good enough". Look at Matt Ryan's numbers (on PFF and his season stats), I never hear his ability questioned. Also, look at his offensive linemen: overall grades (not so important here) and pass grades, in addition to hits, sacks, and pressures given up. I am writing an article on this soon.

Paul Kuharsky: I’m not alone in having a critical eye regarding David Garrard -- in the media in the league or even on the team (see Jack Del Rio and Wayne Weaver comments).

Sure, those are informative numbers.

His protection and receivers have to be better. So does he. If you think they aren’t going to draft his replacement next year even if he’s fantastic, you’re in for a surprise.

Matt Ryan is a kid with a ton of upside. Garrard is 32.

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Ida Clark in Nashville, Tenn., writes: I have heard about how Damian Williams will be used as a returner, but the statement made by Corey Chavous in the Titans' Insider blog makes me think the Titans need to get him on the field at WR ASAP... So, instead of fan (and media) speculation on when and whether Rusty Smith is going to replace Vince Young, a former NFL DB and current draft expert thinks that the focus should be on Williams' getting the playing time that Nate Washington and Justin Gage are getting. As both Gage and Williams are possession WRs and Williams has the better hands and is the superior route runner of the two, he would be the odd man out. Agree or disagree?

Paul Kuharsky: Chavous does some great work on the draft. But I don’t believe he’s been to a Titans’ training camp practice recently and he clearly focuses more on incoming prospects than on the philosophies and long-standing practices of the teams these players are going to.

Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger aren’t big on using rookies unless they know everything.

So maybe Williams is great and learns fast.

But Washington and Gage are veterans making good money and the Titans like them even if Chavous doesn’t. They already have a young receiver in the mix in Kenny Britt and the fourth guy rarely gets meaningful snaps on a Sunday. (Britt’s big opportunity last year came only after Gage got hurt.)

So I wouldn’t get carried away with expectations for Damian Williams on offense this year. I think they’d largely be considered gravy. Here’s hoping he can solve their embarrassing return issues.

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Justin Sharpe in Jacksonville, Fla., writes: Paul, I wanted to express my respect for the consistent quality and overall integrity of your work. In this age of vitriolic rhetoric, you've managed to maintain a level of objectivity that's suddenly very rare in sports journalism. As a Jacksonville native and Jaguars fan, I couldn't be more pleased that you work the AFC South beat. Please keep up the good work, and congratulations on the recent arrival of your newest family member. Sincerely, Justin S.

Paul Kuharsky: That’s very nice of you to say, Justin. A real weekend-maker. Often my mailbox entries have a different tone, but this was a pretty good week. Thanks.