AFC South: Dan Orlovsky
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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.
Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …
This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.
But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.
Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.
Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.
The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.
The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.
Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.
Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.
Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …
This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.
But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.
Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.
Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.
The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.
The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.
Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.
Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.
» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Houston Texans
Key additions: None.
Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).
Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.
Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.
What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.
But the Texans are not without need.
While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.
So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.
On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.
What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.
They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.
Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).
Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.
They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.
What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.
The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.
The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.
Tennessee Titans
Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.
Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.
Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.
Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.
What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.
Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?
Houston Texans
Key additions: None.
Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).
Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.
Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.
What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.
But the Texans are not without need.
While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.
So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.
On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.
What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.
They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.
Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).
Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.
They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.
What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.
The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.
The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.
Tennessee Titans
Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.
Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.
Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.
Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.
What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.
Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?
A free-agency roundup for the AFC South so far. We're not including a team's own free agents that it has re-signed:
Houston
Additions: None
Subtractions: OLB Mario Williams (Buffalo); RT Eric Winston (cut, Kansas City); CB Jason Allen (Cincinnati); G Mike Brisiel (Oakland); QB Matt Leinart (cut); Lawrence Vickers (Dallas).
Indianapolis
Additions: DL Cory Redding (Baltimore); RT Winston Justice (trade, Philadelphia); S Tom Zbikowski (Baltimore); C Mike McGlynn (Cincinnati).
Subtractions: WR Pierre Garcon (Washington); WR Anthony Gonzalez (New England); QB Dan Orlovsky (Tampa Bay); QB Peyton Manning (cut); LB Gary Brackett (cut); S Melvin Bullitt (cut), TE Dallas Clark (cut).
Jacksonville
Additions: WR Laurent Robinson (Dallas); QB Chad Henne (Miami).
Subtractions: ST-WR Kassim Osgood (cut).
Tennessee
Additions: G Steve Hutchinson (cut, Minnesota).
Subtractions: CB Cortland Finnegan (St. Louis); DL Jason Jones (Seattle).
Houston
Additions: None
Subtractions: OLB Mario Williams (Buffalo); RT Eric Winston (cut, Kansas City); CB Jason Allen (Cincinnati); G Mike Brisiel (Oakland); QB Matt Leinart (cut); Lawrence Vickers (Dallas).
Indianapolis
Additions: DL Cory Redding (Baltimore); RT Winston Justice (trade, Philadelphia); S Tom Zbikowski (Baltimore); C Mike McGlynn (Cincinnati).
Subtractions: WR Pierre Garcon (Washington); WR Anthony Gonzalez (New England); QB Dan Orlovsky (Tampa Bay); QB Peyton Manning (cut); LB Gary Brackett (cut); S Melvin Bullitt (cut), TE Dallas Clark (cut).
Jacksonville
Additions: WR Laurent Robinson (Dallas); QB Chad Henne (Miami).
Subtractions: ST-WR Kassim Osgood (cut).
Tennessee
Additions: G Steve Hutchinson (cut, Minnesota).
Subtractions: CB Cortland Finnegan (St. Louis); DL Jason Jones (Seattle).
The money isn’t mine. I’m not certain about what you can afford and what the market will pay when free agency opens on March 13. I’m not positive about your plans and schemes.
But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.
And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:
1) Tell Peyton Manning thanks for everything. Say we had every intention of you playing out your career with the Colts, but the chances of all these elements aligning -- his health questions, a new GM and coach, the top pick and Andrew Luck’s availability -- make it impossible. Maximize your graciousness.
2) Assessing what will be available in the draft, or a relatively inexpensive free agent or two you’d like to grab, then franchise either defensive end Robert Mathis or receiver Reggie Wayne accordingly. Both will have great chances to move on in free agency, and you can’t afford to move forward without them, either. You can make a case either way -- Mathis would be a great piece in a transformation to a 3-4; Wayne would reliably be in place to convert third downs for a young quarterback.
3) Convince defensive end Dwight Freeney to sign an extension. You have to drive down his $19 million-plus cap hit and his $14 million-plus base salary for 2012. But cutting him would be awfully painful, especially if Mathis is getting to free agency. If Freeney has to go because of cost, then Mathis has to be tagged and Wayne is likely lost.
4) Look for cost savings with these players: Tight end Dallas Clark ($7.32 million cap hit, $4.53 million base), middle linebacker Gary Brackett ($7.4 million cap hit, $5 million base), running back Joseph Addai ($4.3 million cap hit, $2.9 million base), and safety Melvin Bullitt ($3.7 million cap hit, $2.4 million base). Brackett and Bullitt are now injury prone and I don't know if you can count on them. But just cutting them won’t necessarily save money as accelerated bonus cost could produce a cost approaching their scheduled cap numbers. Same with Addai, who may not fit with a new run philosophy.
5) Let receiver Pierre Garcon walk. The guy is a blazer who will make a good amount of big plays, but he’s not guaranteed reliable in big moments. The sort of drops and gaffes he’s capable of can really mess with a team trying to build confidence and he'll be overpaid by the market.
6) Try to get Jeff Saturday to sign up for one more year. He’d be a great influence on Luck and a young team and could help get a group of young linemen ready to protect the new centerpiece and to block for a newly emphasized run game.
7) Re-sign reserve quarterback Dan Orlovsky, tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Anthony Gonzalez cheaply if you can. Orlovsky can spot start if need be and it’ll be difficult to find a quality backup who wants to come to be No. 2 to Luck. Tamme has quality hands. Gonzalez was highly rated not too long ago and a doghouse visit under the last regime will make him affordable. It’s worth trying to keep them around at reasonable cost and they are unlikely to draw significant offers elsewhere.
8) Let three other free agents walk: linebacker Philip Wheeler, guard Mike Pollack and tackle Ryan Diem.
But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.
And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:
1) Tell Peyton Manning thanks for everything. Say we had every intention of you playing out your career with the Colts, but the chances of all these elements aligning -- his health questions, a new GM and coach, the top pick and Andrew Luck’s availability -- make it impossible. Maximize your graciousness.
2) Assessing what will be available in the draft, or a relatively inexpensive free agent or two you’d like to grab, then franchise either defensive end Robert Mathis or receiver Reggie Wayne accordingly. Both will have great chances to move on in free agency, and you can’t afford to move forward without them, either. You can make a case either way -- Mathis would be a great piece in a transformation to a 3-4; Wayne would reliably be in place to convert third downs for a young quarterback.
3) Convince defensive end Dwight Freeney to sign an extension. You have to drive down his $19 million-plus cap hit and his $14 million-plus base salary for 2012. But cutting him would be awfully painful, especially if Mathis is getting to free agency. If Freeney has to go because of cost, then Mathis has to be tagged and Wayne is likely lost.
4) Look for cost savings with these players: Tight end Dallas Clark ($7.32 million cap hit, $4.53 million base), middle linebacker Gary Brackett ($7.4 million cap hit, $5 million base), running back Joseph Addai ($4.3 million cap hit, $2.9 million base), and safety Melvin Bullitt ($3.7 million cap hit, $2.4 million base). Brackett and Bullitt are now injury prone and I don't know if you can count on them. But just cutting them won’t necessarily save money as accelerated bonus cost could produce a cost approaching their scheduled cap numbers. Same with Addai, who may not fit with a new run philosophy.
5) Let receiver Pierre Garcon walk. The guy is a blazer who will make a good amount of big plays, but he’s not guaranteed reliable in big moments. The sort of drops and gaffes he’s capable of can really mess with a team trying to build confidence and he'll be overpaid by the market.
6) Try to get Jeff Saturday to sign up for one more year. He’d be a great influence on Luck and a young team and could help get a group of young linemen ready to protect the new centerpiece and to block for a newly emphasized run game.
7) Re-sign reserve quarterback Dan Orlovsky, tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Anthony Gonzalez cheaply if you can. Orlovsky can spot start if need be and it’ll be difficult to find a quality backup who wants to come to be No. 2 to Luck. Tamme has quality hands. Gonzalez was highly rated not too long ago and a doghouse visit under the last regime will make him affordable. It’s worth trying to keep them around at reasonable cost and they are unlikely to draw significant offers elsewhere.
8) Let three other free agents walk: linebacker Philip Wheeler, guard Mike Pollack and tackle Ryan Diem.
What Garcon developments mean for Colts
February, 25, 2012
Feb 25
12:03
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
INDIANAPOLIS — Adam Schefter reported that Indianapolis Colts receiver Pierre Garcon, a free-agent-to-be, passed on a five-year contract offer from the team.
Not knowing details of the money makes it difficult for us to offer a complete interpretation of what such a development means.
But the nugget of news still tells us a few important things:
Garcon will bring a receiving corps a jolt of speed, and virtually everybody seeking help at the position covets a guy who can stretch the field and impact the way defenses play.
He’s been a streaky player, and his good games and stretches have been very good. But he can put up duds, get mixed up with his quarterback and muff the sort of crucial pass that can change a game.
One thing that can’t be used as a strike against him is that he’s a product of Peyton Manning, since he led the Colts with six touchdown catches as he caught 70 passes for 947 yards with Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback.
I’d rate him as a risk with a big money contract, but also think he’s worth a shot as a No. 2 on the right team with the right offense, the right quarterback and the right No. 1.
The Colts need him and could beef up their offer and continue to try to get a deal done before free agency opens March 13. Also, defensive end Robert Mathis is also a franchise-tag candidate. That would cost about $10.05 million. If he hits the market, he’s going to field calls from a ton of teams.
Receiver Reggie Wayne is also heading for free agency. Indianapolis can keep one with a franchise tag of around $9.4 million. Lose both and they’re down to Austin Collie — a very good player who shouldn’t be asked to be a team’s top guy — and Blair White as their wideouts under contract.
Some analysts will be tempted to rate Garcon as having more upside than the aging Wayne as the Colts prepare to draft Andrew Luck. But I’ve been chatting with colleagues about it. That deep threat is nice, but isn’t a guy who will reliably convert third-and-7 more valuable for a young quarterback?
[+] Enlarge
Brian Spurlock/US PresswireThe Colts would like to retain Pierre Garcon, a four-year pro who has played his entire career in Indianapolis.
Brian Spurlock/US PresswireThe Colts would like to retain Pierre Garcon, a four-year pro who has played his entire career in Indianapolis.But the nugget of news still tells us a few important things:
- New GM Ryan Grigson is to the point where he’s evaluated what he’s got and made some judgments on who he’d like to retain. And Garcon is on the list.
- Garcon expects to find something better on the open market, which could prompt the Colts to boost their offer.
Garcon will bring a receiving corps a jolt of speed, and virtually everybody seeking help at the position covets a guy who can stretch the field and impact the way defenses play.
He’s been a streaky player, and his good games and stretches have been very good. But he can put up duds, get mixed up with his quarterback and muff the sort of crucial pass that can change a game.
One thing that can’t be used as a strike against him is that he’s a product of Peyton Manning, since he led the Colts with six touchdown catches as he caught 70 passes for 947 yards with Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback.
I’d rate him as a risk with a big money contract, but also think he’s worth a shot as a No. 2 on the right team with the right offense, the right quarterback and the right No. 1.
The Colts need him and could beef up their offer and continue to try to get a deal done before free agency opens March 13. Also, defensive end Robert Mathis is also a franchise-tag candidate. That would cost about $10.05 million. If he hits the market, he’s going to field calls from a ton of teams.
Receiver Reggie Wayne is also heading for free agency. Indianapolis can keep one with a franchise tag of around $9.4 million. Lose both and they’re down to Austin Collie — a very good player who shouldn’t be asked to be a team’s top guy — and Blair White as their wideouts under contract.
Some analysts will be tempted to rate Garcon as having more upside than the aging Wayne as the Colts prepare to draft Andrew Luck. But I’ve been chatting with colleagues about it. That deep threat is nice, but isn’t a guy who will reliably convert third-and-7 more valuable for a young quarterback?
First look at Colts heading for free agency
February, 17, 2012
Feb 17
12:09
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Early thoughts on some key Colts scheduled to become unrestricted free agents come March 13.
Thanks to Mac’s Football Blog, where you can find complete team-by-team lists that include exclusive right and restricted free agents.
QB Kerry Collins – He may not have filed paperwork, but he’s retired.
QB Dan Orlovsky – Showed enough to be on a roster in the league as a third quarterback in a crowded situation or a backup somewhere with a sure-fire starter.
WR Pierre Garcon – He’s inconsistent, but this team needs a speed receiver for Andrew Luck and it’s better to keep the one they’ve been developing than going searching.
WR Anthony Gonzalez – Was completely in the doghouse at the end and could not get on the field. Probably needs to sign for a season, in Indy or elsewhere, and prove he can be healthy and contribute.
WR Reggie Wayne – Has said he’d stay and be honored to be part of a rebuild, but they’d have to be fair. Other teams will court him and somebody will pay him better than the Colts would if they pursued him, I suspect.
TE Jacob Tamme – Was quite a good receiving option for Peyton Manning in 2010, but how much of that was Manning? I think Tamme is a valuable piece they should want back and can certainly afford.
OT Ryan Diem – Did well to serve as a veteran example for a young line and was flexible, playing some guard. But his time is going to be up.
OG Mike Pollak – Has played a lot and not gotten a lot better. They got new tackles last year; it’s time for a new guard or two.
OC Jeff Saturday – If Manning is gone, it would make sense to turn the page with Saturday, too. Reportedly the Colts and at least one other team would like him in their front offices.
DE Robert Mathis – Will be a commodity, for sure. Never mind his age. He can help you rush the passer for the next three years. Colts should want to keep him, but will they pay what he costs?
LB Philip Wheeler – If the Colts are getting bigger on defense, they’ll probably move on here. He’s consistently failed to get in or stay in the lineup for extended stretches in a defense for which he’s better suited.
Other UFAs:
Thanks to Mac’s Football Blog, where you can find complete team-by-team lists that include exclusive right and restricted free agents.
QB Kerry Collins – He may not have filed paperwork, but he’s retired.
QB Dan Orlovsky – Showed enough to be on a roster in the league as a third quarterback in a crowded situation or a backup somewhere with a sure-fire starter.
WR Pierre Garcon – He’s inconsistent, but this team needs a speed receiver for Andrew Luck and it’s better to keep the one they’ve been developing than going searching.
WR Anthony Gonzalez – Was completely in the doghouse at the end and could not get on the field. Probably needs to sign for a season, in Indy or elsewhere, and prove he can be healthy and contribute.
WR Reggie Wayne – Has said he’d stay and be honored to be part of a rebuild, but they’d have to be fair. Other teams will court him and somebody will pay him better than the Colts would if they pursued him, I suspect.
TE Jacob Tamme – Was quite a good receiving option for Peyton Manning in 2010, but how much of that was Manning? I think Tamme is a valuable piece they should want back and can certainly afford.
OT Ryan Diem – Did well to serve as a veteran example for a young line and was flexible, playing some guard. But his time is going to be up.
OG Mike Pollak – Has played a lot and not gotten a lot better. They got new tackles last year; it’s time for a new guard or two.
OC Jeff Saturday – If Manning is gone, it would make sense to turn the page with Saturday, too. Reportedly the Colts and at least one other team would like him in their front offices.
DE Robert Mathis – Will be a commodity, for sure. Never mind his age. He can help you rush the passer for the next three years. Colts should want to keep him, but will they pay what he costs?
LB Philip Wheeler – If the Colts are getting bigger on defense, they’ll probably move on here. He’s consistently failed to get in or stay in the lineup for extended stretches in a defense for which he’s better suited.
Other UFAs:
- DE Jamaal Anderson
- FB Jerome Felton
- OT Quinn Ojinnaka
- OG Jamey Richard
- DE Tyler Brayton
- DE Eric Foster
- LB Kevin Bentley
- LB Ernie Sims
On the idea of Colts keeping Jim Caldwell
January, 17, 2012
Jan 17
8:27
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
The buzz is growing that the Colts are going to stick with Jim Caldwell as their coach.
Mike Chappell senses it. Phillip B. Wilson thinks the Colts would be fooling themselves.
Caldwell I think if new general manager Ryan Grigson retains Caldwell it will be in large part because owner Jim Irsay convinced him to. If Peyton Manning is back, having Caldwell and the offensive staff in place will make things far smoother. But continuity is a hard thing to sell as relevant when the thing you're looking for carryover from is branded with a 2-14 record.
As Wilson points out, there will be a giant fan backlash.
The Colts can’t make a decision based on that. But with a chance for 2012 to be a fresh start, they have to know that sticking with the coach who was at the helm for a disaster won’t be well received at a time when they could make a move and regain a great deal of support.
Caldwell takes too much grief, I believe. He had more to do with the Super Bowl run in his first season that he gets credit for. The 10-6 record the following injury-plagued year was a big accomplishment. The biggest thing going for him now is that he held together a team that should have burst like a piñata at a 5-year-old’s birthday party.
But consider this: Irsay has said that Caldwell has admitted mistakes in coaching hires and clock management. With a franchise that was under the thumb of Bill Polian, the coach didn’t have a ton of decision-making power. And in two big departments -- hiring and managing a game, he failed.
He also failed to alter the Colts’ approach dramatically enough when it became clear what they could not be without Manning. And he consistently stood in front of a microphone and talked about how Curtis Painter was improving when everyone knew he was not. Dan Orlovsky should have replaced him sooner.
That’s a long list of errors that, when weighed against holding a team together and being a good man, would seem to sway the scale against him.
If the team announces in the next couple days that he’s staying, I hope Grigson and Irsay will talk about how those things come to balance in their judgment.
And if Caldwell’s back, I hope he loosens up in the post-Polian era and proves to be a better coach.
Mike Chappell senses it. Phillip B. Wilson thinks the Colts would be fooling themselves.
As Wilson points out, there will be a giant fan backlash.
The Colts can’t make a decision based on that. But with a chance for 2012 to be a fresh start, they have to know that sticking with the coach who was at the helm for a disaster won’t be well received at a time when they could make a move and regain a great deal of support.
Caldwell takes too much grief, I believe. He had more to do with the Super Bowl run in his first season that he gets credit for. The 10-6 record the following injury-plagued year was a big accomplishment. The biggest thing going for him now is that he held together a team that should have burst like a piñata at a 5-year-old’s birthday party.
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He also failed to alter the Colts’ approach dramatically enough when it became clear what they could not be without Manning. And he consistently stood in front of a microphone and talked about how Curtis Painter was improving when everyone knew he was not. Dan Orlovsky should have replaced him sooner.
That’s a long list of errors that, when weighed against holding a team together and being a good man, would seem to sway the scale against him.
If the team announces in the next couple days that he’s staying, I hope Grigson and Irsay will talk about how those things come to balance in their judgment.
And if Caldwell’s back, I hope he loosens up in the post-Polian era and proves to be a better coach.
» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
Arrow indicates direction team is trending.
Final Power Ranking: 32
Preseason Power Ranking: 9
Biggest surprise: Even without rehabilitating Peyton Manning (neck), few figured the the Colts could go 0-13 and wind up 2-14 with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. We can’t say how much better these Colts could have been with their four-time NFL MVP in the huddle, but he clearly masked a lot more issues than many knew. The offense tried to be more run-based but didn’t make it work well enough. Typically allergic to fullbacks, they used three different ones but ran worse with a fullback on the field than without one. The secondary was poorly constructed and couldn’t endure injuries and it became clear how bad a fit Jim Caldwell’s hand-picked coordinator, Larry Coyer, had become for the Cover 2 scheme the Colts like to run.
Biggest disappointment: Quarterback play was awful. Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky were terrible as the alternatives to Manning at quarterback. They combined to average 6.04 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while absorbing 35 sacks. A lot of the good numbers were compiled late in blowouts. The Colts' 26.9 combined QBR was better than only the Jaguars and Rams. The team tied an NFL record by going eight full games without ever holding a lead.
Biggest need: The Colts need help at all sorts of positions, starting in the secondary. Before team vice chairman Bill Polian was dismissed he was saying the team needed an infusion of youth that could contribute to converting third downs on offense and stopping them on defense. But until a new general manager is in place and we know the coaching staff and scheme, we won’t know which veterans they should aim to keep and which ones they should let go. So new leadership at the management level is the top need following the dismissal of Polian and GM Chris Polian. From there, a verdict on Manning’s health and future and a decision on whether to keep the No. 1 pick and what to do with it will hang over the franchise.
Team MVP: Pat Angerer slid to middle linebacker from the strong side after Gary Brackett suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the season opener in Houston. Angerer proved to be a tackling machine who consistently shed blockers and covered ground despite the fact that the defensive line in front of him and the secondary behind him often didn’t play reliably enough. He made a team-high 148 tackles. Brackett now appears dispensable.
System status: For the Polian-Manning era the Colts built a Manning-centric, fast-moving, no-huddle offense that caught defenses in bad personnel groups and regularly scored in the final two minutes of the first half of the game. It was paired with a bend-don’t-break Cover 2 defense that aimed to limit big plays and produce situations that allowed a duo of premier pass-rushers to tee off on quarterbacks who had to drop back. With regime change coming, will system change come too? The odds seem low that Bill Polian’s successor will put a similar premium on smaller, speedier defenders.
Arrow indicates direction team is trending.
Final Power Ranking: 32
Preseason Power Ranking: 9
[+] Enlarge
Rob Carr/Getty ImagesWithout Peyton Manning the Colts went from playoff contender to the worst team in the NFL.
Rob Carr/Getty ImagesWithout Peyton Manning the Colts went from playoff contender to the worst team in the NFL.Biggest disappointment: Quarterback play was awful. Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky were terrible as the alternatives to Manning at quarterback. They combined to average 6.04 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while absorbing 35 sacks. A lot of the good numbers were compiled late in blowouts. The Colts' 26.9 combined QBR was better than only the Jaguars and Rams. The team tied an NFL record by going eight full games without ever holding a lead.
Biggest need: The Colts need help at all sorts of positions, starting in the secondary. Before team vice chairman Bill Polian was dismissed he was saying the team needed an infusion of youth that could contribute to converting third downs on offense and stopping them on defense. But until a new general manager is in place and we know the coaching staff and scheme, we won’t know which veterans they should aim to keep and which ones they should let go. So new leadership at the management level is the top need following the dismissal of Polian and GM Chris Polian. From there, a verdict on Manning’s health and future and a decision on whether to keep the No. 1 pick and what to do with it will hang over the franchise.
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System status: For the Polian-Manning era the Colts built a Manning-centric, fast-moving, no-huddle offense that caught defenses in bad personnel groups and regularly scored in the final two minutes of the first half of the game. It was paired with a bend-don’t-break Cover 2 defense that aimed to limit big plays and produce situations that allowed a duo of premier pass-rushers to tee off on quarterbacks who had to drop back. With regime change coming, will system change come too? The odds seem low that Bill Polian’s successor will put a similar premium on smaller, speedier defenders.
Thoughts on the Jaguars' 19-13 win over the Colts at EverBank Field:
What it means: At 2-14, the Colts clinched the No. 1 pick in the April draft, a selection virtually everyone believes will and should be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Jaguars, meanwhile, got to send off original team owner Wayne Weaver with a victory as the team changes hands to Shahid Khan this week.
What I liked, Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew secured a single-season franchise rushing record and the NFL rushing title with a season-high 169 yards on 25 carries. He was virtually unstoppable and made it clear there was no scenario in which the Jaguars cared about what draft pick the Colts would wind up with.
What I didn’t like, Colts: After two great weeks of defense in two wins, the tackling of Jones-Drew was just horrible. And quarterback Dan Orlovsky returned to turnovers, throwing two picks and showing no clock in his head on Jeremy Mincey’s strip sack.
What I wonder: Is there any way Jim Caldwell, an honorable man who had a very bad year at work, is not part of Black Monday when coaches lose jobs?
What the Jaguars won despite: A 3.2 average gain per pass play when they averaged 5.4 yards per rush and no touchdowns in four trips into the red zone, which produced just nine points.
What’s next: In Indianapolis, a verdict on Caldwell and the Polians followed by months of speculation about whether the Colts really want to keep Peyton Manning and draft Luck. In Jacksonville, a change of team ownership and a coaching hire.
What it means: At 2-14, the Colts clinched the No. 1 pick in the April draft, a selection virtually everyone believes will and should be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Jaguars, meanwhile, got to send off original team owner Wayne Weaver with a victory as the team changes hands to Shahid Khan this week.
What I liked, Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew secured a single-season franchise rushing record and the NFL rushing title with a season-high 169 yards on 25 carries. He was virtually unstoppable and made it clear there was no scenario in which the Jaguars cared about what draft pick the Colts would wind up with.
What I didn’t like, Colts: After two great weeks of defense in two wins, the tackling of Jones-Drew was just horrible. And quarterback Dan Orlovsky returned to turnovers, throwing two picks and showing no clock in his head on Jeremy Mincey’s strip sack.
What I wonder: Is there any way Jim Caldwell, an honorable man who had a very bad year at work, is not part of Black Monday when coaches lose jobs?
What the Jaguars won despite: A 3.2 average gain per pass play when they averaged 5.4 yards per rush and no touchdowns in four trips into the red zone, which produced just nine points.
What’s next: In Indianapolis, a verdict on Caldwell and the Polians followed by months of speculation about whether the Colts really want to keep Peyton Manning and draft Luck. In Jacksonville, a change of team ownership and a coaching hire.
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
FALLING
1. The Houston Texans' confidence: They will say otherwise, but coming off of two bad losses the Texans have to be wondering about themselves. They got pushed around by Carolina, and their vaunted defense fell apart in the final minutes, allowing the Colts to drive to a game-winning touchdown. I was among those questioning this team’s mental makeup coming into the season. I thought they’d answered that question resoundingly as they ran away with the division. Is it creeping back in now?
2. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dealings with tight ends: Marcedes Lewis will be a headliner on the AFC South All Disappointment Team, and if not for Chris Johnson, he’d be the captain. Saturday in Nashville, he pulled up on one ball across the middle for fear of a hit from notorious thumper Michael Griffin, the Titans safety (#sarcasm). On the other end, the defense let Tennessee’s Jared Cook run wild. The coverage call on Cook’s 55-yard touchdown pass that sent the safeties wide and left middle linebacker Paul Posluszny covering Cook deep down the middle was disastrous.
3. The Houston Texans’ third-down offense: On last week’s list, it was third-down defense. The Colts allowed them just one conversion in 10 chances, and that one came on a pass that bounced off Antoine Bethea twice. This team can win with games centered on defense and the run game. But if the offense can’t convert third downs and stay on the field for some extended drives, the strain on those two areas becomes too much and the margin of error shrivels.
RISING
1. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver: He talked leading up to the Colts' home finale about wanting to go out with a bang in case it turned out to be his last game as a Colt at Lucas Oil Stadium. I saw one early route where I thought his effort was questionable. But he sure cranked it up as Dan Orlovsky threw his direction 14 times. He pulled in eight receptions for 106 yards and cradled the game-winning touchdown after a 1-yard catch that provided the winning margin for Indianapolis in its second consecutive win. He’s heading toward free agency and it’s clear he can still produce. How much longer is the question.
2. The Tennessee Titans’ discipline: Mike Munchak has preached discipline from his first day as the Titans coach. Saturday, when he didn’t get a postgame question about a penalty-free performance, he didn’t leave the podium before jokingly pointing it out. It was the first time the franchise didn’t draw a flag in a game since 1972. Meanwhile the Titans benefited from six calls against the Jaguars that gave Tennessee 28 yards and three first downs.
3. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans tight end: Following the best game for a tight end in franchise history -- 169 yards -- he’s in range of the franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a season. He’s a receiver-like threat who I believe has been under-used by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck since Kenny Britt went down early in the season. Cook killed the Titans with a lost fumble in the loss at Indianapolis. The effort against the Jaguars was an excellent rebound. The Titans need to find ways to get him the ball Sunday at Reliant Stadium.
FALLING
1. The Houston Texans' confidence: They will say otherwise, but coming off of two bad losses the Texans have to be wondering about themselves. They got pushed around by Carolina, and their vaunted defense fell apart in the final minutes, allowing the Colts to drive to a game-winning touchdown. I was among those questioning this team’s mental makeup coming into the season. I thought they’d answered that question resoundingly as they ran away with the division. Is it creeping back in now?
2. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dealings with tight ends: Marcedes Lewis will be a headliner on the AFC South All Disappointment Team, and if not for Chris Johnson, he’d be the captain. Saturday in Nashville, he pulled up on one ball across the middle for fear of a hit from notorious thumper Michael Griffin, the Titans safety (#sarcasm). On the other end, the defense let Tennessee’s Jared Cook run wild. The coverage call on Cook’s 55-yard touchdown pass that sent the safeties wide and left middle linebacker Paul Posluszny covering Cook deep down the middle was disastrous.
3. The Houston Texans’ third-down offense: On last week’s list, it was third-down defense. The Colts allowed them just one conversion in 10 chances, and that one came on a pass that bounced off Antoine Bethea twice. This team can win with games centered on defense and the run game. But if the offense can’t convert third downs and stay on the field for some extended drives, the strain on those two areas becomes too much and the margin of error shrivels.
RISING
[+] Enlarge
Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIREIndianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne stepped up in last Sunday's win against Houston.
Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIREIndianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne stepped up in last Sunday's win against Houston.2. The Tennessee Titans’ discipline: Mike Munchak has preached discipline from his first day as the Titans coach. Saturday, when he didn’t get a postgame question about a penalty-free performance, he didn’t leave the podium before jokingly pointing it out. It was the first time the franchise didn’t draw a flag in a game since 1972. Meanwhile the Titans benefited from six calls against the Jaguars that gave Tennessee 28 yards and three first downs.
3. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans tight end: Following the best game for a tight end in franchise history -- 169 yards -- he’s in range of the franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a season. He’s a receiver-like threat who I believe has been under-used by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck since Kenny Britt went down early in the season. Cook killed the Titans with a lost fumble in the loss at Indianapolis. The effort against the Jaguars was an excellent rebound. The Titans need to find ways to get him the ball Sunday at Reliant Stadium.
QBR and T.J. Yates' work against Colts
December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
12:23
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Our look at how the quarterbacks of the AFC South performed in Week 16:
This week’s question out of those numbers for me is, why the discrepancy between T.J. Yates' QBR and passer rating?
Here’s the explanation from John McTigue of ESPN Stats and Info:
"Yates was 5-for-5 on third down, but only one of those completions went for a first down. Yates averaged just 1.8 air yards per pass attempt on third down, despite needing at least 5 yards on four of the five attempts. Yates was also sacked once on third down.
"Although it didn’t lead to points, Yates lost a fumble on a Robert Mathis sack early in the first quarter, setting up the Colts with a first-and-10 in Texans territory. The game was obviously still in [question] at the time, and had a negative impact on his QBR.
"Half of Yates’ passing yardage came in the air and half came after the catch. QBR gives more weight to the quarterback when passes have more air yards.
"Yates’ two best QBR games this season came when more than half of his passing yards were in the air. His three worst games were when at least half of his yards came after the catch."
This week’s question out of those numbers for me is, why the discrepancy between T.J. Yates' QBR and passer rating?
Here’s the explanation from John McTigue of ESPN Stats and Info:
"Yates was 5-for-5 on third down, but only one of those completions went for a first down. Yates averaged just 1.8 air yards per pass attempt on third down, despite needing at least 5 yards on four of the five attempts. Yates was also sacked once on third down.
"Although it didn’t lead to points, Yates lost a fumble on a Robert Mathis sack early in the first quarter, setting up the Colts with a first-and-10 in Texans territory. The game was obviously still in [question] at the time, and had a negative impact on his QBR.
"Half of Yates’ passing yardage came in the air and half came after the catch. QBR gives more weight to the quarterback when passes have more air yards.
"Yates’ two best QBR games this season came when more than half of his passing yards were in the air. His three worst games were when at least half of his yards came after the catch."
RTC: Was that rotten Luck for Colts?
December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
8:38
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Reading the coverage …
Houston Texans
The Texans can still win in the playoffs, but there is no real evidence to support the claim, says Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.
Gary Kubiak has to at least consider a quarterback change after a tough game for T.J. Yates in the loss at Indianapolis, says Solomon.
Indianapolis Colts
Was that a great win for the Colts or rotten Luck, asks Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star. It could help the Colts move out of the No. 1 draft slot and have ramifications for next year and maybe 15 years.
Reggie Wayne had been advising Dan Orlovsky just to throw it left, and that’s what the quarterback did at the crucial moment, says Mike Chappell of the Star.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are looking for a third consecutive game with a special teams touchdown, says Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union.
Mike Thomas passed his concussion test and has been cleared to play, says Tania Ganguli of the T-U.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are doing so poorly on first down that they are in second-and-long 60 percent of the time, writes John Glennon on The Tennessean.
Though he was limited in Thursday’s practice, Chris Johnson is expected to play though a sprained ankle Saturday against Jacksonville, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.
Houston Texans
The Texans can still win in the playoffs, but there is no real evidence to support the claim, says Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.
Gary Kubiak has to at least consider a quarterback change after a tough game for T.J. Yates in the loss at Indianapolis, says Solomon.
Indianapolis Colts
Was that a great win for the Colts or rotten Luck, asks Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star. It could help the Colts move out of the No. 1 draft slot and have ramifications for next year and maybe 15 years.
Reggie Wayne had been advising Dan Orlovsky just to throw it left, and that’s what the quarterback did at the crucial moment, says Mike Chappell of the Star.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are looking for a third consecutive game with a special teams touchdown, says Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union.
Mike Thomas passed his concussion test and has been cleared to play, says Tania Ganguli of the T-U.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are doing so poorly on first down that they are in second-and-long 60 percent of the time, writes John Glennon on The Tennessean.
Though he was limited in Thursday’s practice, Chris Johnson is expected to play though a sprained ankle Saturday against Jacksonville, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.
After 0-13, Colts win second in five days
December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
1:52
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Brian Spurlock/US PresswireReggie Wayne caught eight passes for 106 yards and the game-winning score with 19 seconds left.INDIANAPOLIS -- It’s inexplicable, really.
Lose 13 in a row and look terrible while doing so. Then, follow it up with two wins in five days.
What the Colts have done is write just the sort of improbable storyline that makes us love the league.
Playing as they so often have with Peyton Manning engineering end-of-game magic, Indianapolis forged a penalty-aided 12-play, 78-yard touchdown drive in just 1 minute, 37 seconds that resulted in a 19-16 win over the Texans. The new AFC South champions from Houston had their best chance ever to win in this city, and they had a lead until the clock showed 19 seconds.
“I couldn’t be prouder of the way the men on this team played,” Colts center Jeff Saturday said. “You start out spotting them seven points, they’re the AFC South champions, they’ve got everything to play for and people would think we’ve got nothing. But the men on this team just kept fighting. We knew if we kept it close we’d have a chance late.”
Saturday, defensive end Robert Mathis and receiver Reggie Wayne played what could have been their last game as Colts in Indianapolis. Mathis had two sacks, forcing and recovering a fumble on one. And Wayne pulled in eight passes for 106 yards, including the 1-yard touchdown pass from Dan Orlovsky that won it.
It leaves Houston, 0-10 on the road against the Colts, in need of a good bit of help to fare better than the third seed in the AFC playoffs.
[+] Enlarge
Brian Spurlock/US Presswire"I couldn't be prouder of the way the men on this team played," center Jeff Saturday, left, said of Reggie Wayne and his Colts teammates.
Brian Spurlock/US Presswire"I couldn't be prouder of the way the men on this team played," center Jeff Saturday, left, said of Reggie Wayne and his Colts teammates.“It’s a loss,” defensive end J.J. Watt said. “It’s a very, very tough loss. But at the end of the day, we’re still in the playoffs. We’re still going to make a very, very strong push in the playoffs. It’s tough. We’re going to learn from it. And then we’re going to move forward. It’s all we can do.”
The result may scramble the top of April’s draft order, and could have implications around the league for more than a decade if it helps St. Louis or Minnesota gain the first overall pick -- expected to be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts sit at 2-13, while the Rams and Vikings are at 2-12.
Before the game, owner Jim Irsay said on the NFL Network that provided Manning is healthy, he will be playing for the Colts in 2012. The team will also not hesitate to select a great young quarterback in the draft, Irsay said.
If they fall out of the first pick and lose their chance at Luck, the Colts will likely also miss out on Matt Barkley, who announced Thursday he’ll play his senior year at USC.
Saturday said he was glad to know Irsay said Manning would be in Indianapolis, health willing. Beyond that, all the speculation will come from beyond the Colts’ locker room.
“I ain’t worried a bit about the draft or any of it,” Saturday said. “I’ll let the Polians worry about that, that’s their job. My job is to win football games, that’s all I care about and that’s all they tell us to care about. I’ve never heard one person in this organization ever talk about what our draft is going to be the next year. Those guys plan for it, they’re going to do their best to get the best players in here. You’ll see what you get.”
Playoff Machine
Check current playoff seedings and figure scenarios through the end of the season. Playoff Machine | Scenarios
In a second consecutive game, this defense looked like it already has some of them.
Though the Colts allowed Arian Foster to romp for 158 rushing yards on 23 carries, including four runs of 18 yards or more, they did well bottling a lot of other things up. The Texans converted only 1 of 10 third downs, when just one more might have iced the game or positioned them to put it out of reach.
That one conversion was a fluke, too. Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates threw behind intended receiver Kevin Walter, who reached back for it but couldn’t pull it in. It bounced off safety Antoine Bethea’s back or shoulder not once, but twice, before Jacoby Jones plucked it for a 5-yard gain with less than 3 minutes remaining.
As it did in its 27-13 win over Tennessee, Indianapolis’ defense benefitted from overly conservative play-calling. The Colts saw a division opponent wary of their pass rush. Houston tried to win by playing it safe, and the Colts blew up that plan.
“The whole season we’ve kept on fighting, there was never a sense of giving up or a sense of backing down,” cornerback Jacob Lacey said. “We’ve rallied around each other.”
Big changes are still ahead, even if the Colts go to Jacksonville and win another game on New Year’s Day. With Christmas weekend free thanks to the schedule-makers, they can savor this one before thinking about that one and all that’s beyond it.
“I hope it’s not, but you never know,” Saturday said about the possibility it was his last game as with the Colts at home. “What a great night tonight with those guys. You don’t get many like this. So I’m treasuring it.”
Watt takes blame for big penalty night
December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
1:47
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
INDIANAPOLIS – J.J. Watt is no-nonsense.
WattSo after the Texans lost a 19-16 decision to the Colts on Thursday night, as he fielded questions about his large role in a bad penalty night for the Houston, he didn’t want to discuss nuance.
“No matter how they happen, you can’t get penalties,” the defensive end said following a game that included a sack, two tackles for loss and three batted passes. “They were called. That’s all I can say. The penalties were called, you can’t argue with the referee and we’ve got to move forward.”
The Texans were flagged for 11 penalties worth 84 yards and six first downs. Three more calls were declined.
Watt was flagged for illegal use of the hands — the penalty was declined — and a highly debatable roughing-the-passer call in the first half. Then he was called for illegal use of the hands and roughing the passer on a hit below the knees on consecutive plays during the Colts’ game-winning touchdown drive. The pair got Indianapolis 14 yards closer to the end zone and stopped the clock for a team with no timeouts.
“We hurt ourselves way too much all night long,” coach Gary Kubiak said, after doing his best to take the blame for a lack of discipline.
Watt was told he hit Dan Orlovsky in the helmet on the first roughing call. If he did, it was the sort of glancing, incidental touch that’s not supposed to be a penalty. Replays showed him tackling the quarterback right at the waist.
A fourth-quarter call against Indianapolis safety Antoine Bethea also elicited gasps from the crowd. Bethea crashed into Kevin Walter and was whistled for unnecessary roughness when he appeared to not even be trying to hit the receiver as he went for the ball. The resulting 15 yards helped move the Texans to a field goal that built their lead to 16-12.
"I was just trying to go for the ball and we collided. I guess I’ll be waiting on that FedEx on Wednesday," Bethea said, referring to how the league informs players of fines. "When they throw the flag, we’re not going to argue with it.”
“No matter how they happen, you can’t get penalties,” the defensive end said following a game that included a sack, two tackles for loss and three batted passes. “They were called. That’s all I can say. The penalties were called, you can’t argue with the referee and we’ve got to move forward.”
The Texans were flagged for 11 penalties worth 84 yards and six first downs. Three more calls were declined.
Watt was flagged for illegal use of the hands — the penalty was declined — and a highly debatable roughing-the-passer call in the first half. Then he was called for illegal use of the hands and roughing the passer on a hit below the knees on consecutive plays during the Colts’ game-winning touchdown drive. The pair got Indianapolis 14 yards closer to the end zone and stopped the clock for a team with no timeouts.
“We hurt ourselves way too much all night long,” coach Gary Kubiak said, after doing his best to take the blame for a lack of discipline.
Watt was told he hit Dan Orlovsky in the helmet on the first roughing call. If he did, it was the sort of glancing, incidental touch that’s not supposed to be a penalty. Replays showed him tackling the quarterback right at the waist.
A fourth-quarter call against Indianapolis safety Antoine Bethea also elicited gasps from the crowd. Bethea crashed into Kevin Walter and was whistled for unnecessary roughness when he appeared to not even be trying to hit the receiver as he went for the ball. The resulting 15 yards helped move the Texans to a field goal that built their lead to 16-12.
"I was just trying to go for the ball and we collided. I guess I’ll be waiting on that FedEx on Wednesday," Bethea said, referring to how the league informs players of fines. "When they throw the flag, we’re not going to argue with it.”
Rapid Reaction: Colts 19, Texans 16
December, 22, 2011
12/22/11
11:34
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
INDIANAPOLIS -- Quick thoughts on the Colts' 19-16 victory over the Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium:
What it means: After an 0-13 start, the Colts won their second game in five days -- this one with a dramatic drive in the final two minutes capped by a 1-yard touchdown catch by Reggie Wayne in what might have been his last home game as a member of the team. The AFC South champion Texans dropped their second game in a row and really hurt themselves in terms of maximizing their playoff seeding.
What I liked, Colts: Quite a bit of resolve. They settled for five field goal attempts by Adam Vinatieri, who hit four of them, until the final drive. They took advantage of favorable penalties on a 12-play, 78-yard touchdown march that took only 1 minute, 37 seconds and finished with Wayne's heroic catch.
What I liked, Texans: Brian Cushing forced a Dan Orlovsky fumble on the first play from scrimmage, Brooks Reed recovered and Arian Foster quickly ran it in for an easy touchdown. Foster punished the Colts with consistently good gains, breaking off chunks that accounted for the bulk of the Texans’ offense -- 23 carries and 158 yards.
Still winless: The Texans still have never won in Indianapolis, falling to 0-10 at the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium combined.
What I want to know: Did the Texans suffer short-term loss in exchange for long-term benefit? It's a result that could help keep the Colts from having the first pick in the draft and keep Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck out of the division.
What’s next: The Colts will look to end the season with three consecutive wins when they travel to Jacksonville for their season finale Jan. 1. Houston hosts Tennessee the same day.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
