AFC South: Dee Milliner

Chance Warmack would be my number one target here. But the Alabama guard didn’t last in our scenario. I don’t think the Titans like Jonathan Cooper the same way.

With Dion Jordan, Star Lotulelei, Dee Milliner, Warmack and Barkevious Mingo all gone, the great value here looks to be Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

Interior defensive line isn’t a pressing need. The Titans signed Sammie Hill as a free agent and they like Jurrell Casey a lot. Mike Martin played in every game as a rookie while Karl Klug suffered a second-year dip.

But they can make room for Floyd, a versatile interior player who can stop the run and get push into the backfield that will help the entire front.

I think the odds of Floyd being available at No. 10 are very remote, though.

If the Dolphins don't bowl over the Raiders with a trade for No. 3 the way James Walker did on Miami’s behalf here, I think Floyd could go third to Oakland.

1. KC: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. JAC: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
3. MIA: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (Trade)
4. PHI: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
5. DET: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
6. CLE: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
7. ARI: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
8. BUF: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
9. NYJ: Barkevious Mingo, OLB-DE, LSU
10. TEN: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Follow the draft as it continues, right here.
NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South AFC: East | West | North | South

What’s the ideal first-round scenario for each team?

Houston Texans

The first 26 picks of the draft probably won’t hit a lot on wide receivers, giving the Texans their choice of a large group. West Virginia’s Tavon Austin likely will be gone, and Cordarrelle Patterson of Tennessee will probably be intriguing to some team. Ideally, if all of the other receiver prospects are on the board, there will be one the Texans believe is an ideal complement to Andre Johnson, whether it’s Cal’s athletic Keenan Allen, Tennessee’s burner Justin Hunter, Clemson’s sure-handed DeAndre Hopkins, USC’s daring Robert Woods or Louisiana Tech’s Quinton Patton.

Indianapolis Colts

Beyond Alabama’s Dee Milliner, it’s a quiet first round for cornerbacks and the Colts get Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes. He’s got the size, skills and mentality that should make him a great candidate for coach Chuck Pagano to deploy in man coverage against big receivers like Andre Johnson and Justin Blackmon. A cornerback crop of Vontae Davis, Rhodes, Greg Toler and Darius Butler should be significantly better than last year’s, and improved coverage will help the pass rush, where the Colts also need to add an outside backer.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs take a left tackle at No. 1 and leave the Jaguars to take a pass-rusher like Oregon’s Dion Jordan or BYU’s Ziggy Ansah. Although Jacksonville has gaping holes at right tackle and cornerback, the prospects at those positions do not seem as valuable as the draft's top pass-rushers. And the Jaguars have had pass-rush deficiencies for years. Coach Gus Bradley has a defensive background, and a premier player who can put heat on quarterbacks is an absolute priority.

Tennessee Titans

The top nine teams in the draft lay off guards, or if one is drafted before the Titans are on the clock, it’s UNC’s Jonathan Cooper. That leaves Alabama’s powerful Chance Warmack there at No. 10 for the Titans, who draft him to play right guard beside right tackle David Stewart. Tennessee pledged a revamp of the offensive line to maximize the opportunities for quarterback Jake Locker and running back Chris Johnson. After the addition of free agent Andy Levitre as the left guard, Warmack would finish the project.
NFC combine preview: East | West | North | South AFC: East | West | North | South

NFL Nation previews the 2013 scouting combine by identifying the most important thing for each team to learn about its greatest area of need.

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson still dictates matchups, but the Texans lack sufficient options in the receiving group after him. Last year they tried to fill out the position with a third-rounder (DeVier Posey) and fourth-rounder (Keshawn Martin). Both have promise, but aren’t especially dynamic. And Posey is recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in the playoff loss at New England. So the combine question is, can a receiver who can stretch the field and qualify as a No. 1 guy in a few years be there for them at No. 27? Cordarrelle Patterson from Tennessee and Keenan Allen from Cal could be gone. Does DeAndre Hopkins of Clemson have enough speed? Does Tavon Austin of West Virginia have enough size?

Indianapolis Colts: How do the cornerbacks run? The Colts have a lot of needs, but none ranks bigger than cornerback, where they need a second starter and perhaps a nickel, as well as depth. Alabama’s Dee Milliner seems largely regarded to be the top guy at the spot heading into the combine. Odds are he’ll be gone by the 24th pick. So how do the next guys run, and how capable are they of playing man-to-man coverage? I think sorting through that for Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes, Washington’s Desmond Trufant and Mississippi State’s Johnthan Banks could be the biggest thing Indianapolis needs to do at this combine.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Who are the two best pass-rushing defensive ends in this draft class for a Gus Bradley/Bob Babich defense? That’s the biggest question for the team holding the No. 2 pick in the April draft. Because if the Chiefs take a pass-rusher first overall, then the Jaguars can do no worse than get their second-favorite guy. Certainly they can go in virtually any direction given the state of their roster. But coming off a season that saw the Jags produce fewer sacks (20) than J.J. Watt had by himself for Houston (20.5), they need to answer a long-standing problem. A new defense simply has to get to the quarterback more than the old defense did. Is Bjoern Werner from Florida State or Damontre Moore of Texas A&M a potential answer?

Tennessee Titans: A pass-rusher and a strong safety are big needs. But they won’t help Jake Locker the way an interior offensive lineman (or two) can. So the Titans need to see if they rate Alabama’s Chance Warmack and North Carolina’s Jonathan Cooper as highly as many analysts do, and if they find one or both worth the No. 10 pick if they are available. If they don’t think they are, is there a second- or third-round prospect they believe can be an immediate and long-term starter? If Tennessee doesn’t find a guard scenario it loves, perhaps it will be more likely to shop for a free agent for the interior.

On the Colts' need at corner

January, 29, 2013
Among the Colts' list of needs, cornerback ranks right up there with offensive linemen.

Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus has Indianapolis on the list of teams that should look into trading for Darrelle Revis of the Jets.

“Bringing in Revis would allow them to allocate their resources toward must-needed upgrades to the front seven and ensure they can do something they weren't able to do this year: Shut down a team's wideouts,” Palazzolo writes.

But the Colts don’t have the ammo to make the deal. They are without a second-round draft pick in April because they sent it to Miami for the one good corner they do have: Vontae Davis.

With a lot of needs, sending picks to New York for Revis would be a difficult thing to do.

Tying into the Colts’ need at corner, it’s interesting to see the impact a big play they got from a cornerback in Super Bowl XLI had on the game.

William Cohen of ESPN Stats and Info looked at the 10 plays that created the biggest swings in win probability in the recent history of the Super Bowl.

Kelvin Hayden’s interception of Rex Grossman ranks ninth -- raising an already high win probability up an additional 24.7 points.

A reminder of the scenario from Cohen:
Situation: 11:59 left in 4th quarter, Bears' ball, trailing by 5, 1st-and-10 from own 38-yard line

Trailing by five early in the fourth quarter, the Bears still had about a 34 percent chance to make a comeback, but a Rex Grossman interception returned 56 yards for a touchdown by Kelvin Hayden made the score 29-17 and sealed the deal for the Colts, raising their win probability to 90.8 percent.

Win probability for a team that put together an 11-5 regular season will rise with cornerback addressed. I’d be really surprised if they are a player for Revis. But I expect they’ll spend a first- or third-round draft pick plus something later on the spot.

Dee Milliner from Alabama is likely to be gone by the time the Colts draft at 24th.

Johnathan Banks of Mississippi State could be an intriguing first-round option.

Scouts Inc. says he has good situational awareness and might be at his best in man-press coverage. The Colts didn’t get good situational awareness from Cassius Vaughn, who played the bulk of the season as a starter. And Chuck Pagano wants corners who can play tight man coverage.