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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

With free agency slowing down and the draft quickly approaching, Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson breaks down the running back situations in the AFC South.

1. Houston Texans: The Texans have the best set of running backs in the NFL in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Of course, Houston’s scheme and blocking are phenomenal, but these two are outstanding in their own right. Foster in particular would fit any scheme. He has size, excellent vision, patience, explosive traits and can be a physical player with the ability to break off long runs. Foster is also extremely adept in the passing game. He gains separation in his routes, catches the ball cleanly and is also an above-average pass-blocker. Only 25, Foster should have a lot of great production ahead of him. The Texans are banking on it after locking him up with a long-term contract right before free agency began. You could make the argument that Foster is the best running back in football right now, especially when factoring in Adrian Peterson’s injury. Tate averaged a whopping 5.4 yards per carry in his second season. It could be argued that he is the most effective backup running back in the league right now. He is more of a straight-line runner than Foster and doesn’t fit all schemes as well as Foster, but he is perfect for what Houston does with its movement-based zone blocking scheme. Tate is quick to get downhill, decisive and runs with power, yet like Foster, can run away from defenders. Houston is loaded at running back.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew had as good of a season in 2011 as any running back in the NFL -- and every defense Jacksonville faced keyed on stopping him. Averaging 4.7 yards per carry under his circumstances was truly a remarkable performance. Everyone makes note of Jones-Drew’s lack of size when discussing him, but he’s a very powerful runner with exceptional leverage. He might not have quite the same burst and long speed as he once did, but his running skills are as sharp as ever. He has a great history of finding the end zone and is excellent as an outlet receiver. Jones-Drew can also stand up a blitzing linebacker as well as any running back in the league. At just 27, he is on a Hall of Fame career pace. Jones-Drew’s backups are Rashad Jennings and Deji Karim. Jennings missed the entire season, but is a very good running back when right. He runs hard and has light feet for a bigger back. As mentioned above, the circumstances were far from optimal last season, but Karim’s 2.1-yard average was simply abysmal. Karim has the look of a poor man’s Jones-Drew … a very poor man’s.

3. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson clearly had an incredibly disappointing 2011 season. He ran with little conviction or competitiveness for much of the season and too often looked to hit the home run instead of grinding out the tough yards. He improved late in the season, though, and there is no question Johnson can remain among the best players at his position. His speed has become legendary. Johnson is also a very good receiver who is lethal in space. I am not suggesting that we will see the back who exceeded 2,000 yards on the ground in 2009, but I am expecting a bounce-back season from Johnson in 2012. The Titans’ run blocking should be better and to me, Johnson is simply a much better player than what he showed on film for much of the season. There are also questions concerning what kind of shape he was in to start 2011. Javon Ringer is Tennessee’s top backup, but Jamie Harper also has ability. Ringer is much more reliable and proven, though. He runs hard with ample degrees of power and acceleration for a backup. Ringer is also an asset as a receiver and continues to improve in this area. Harper has a decent all-around skill set, but his 2.6-yard average last year is inexcusable.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Although Donald Brown has never really lived up to his first-round draft status, he was one of the few bright spots for the Colts last year. His 4.8 yards-per-carry average on the worst team in the league last season does stand out. It was by far Brown’s best season as a pro. As running backs go, I see Brown as a jack-of-all-trades but a master of none in many ways. He doesn’t have a single trait that stands out above all others, but as he showed in 2011, he is quite solid in all areas. Brown also is a decent receiver and a very good pass-blocker. Delone Carter was rather disappointing in all phases of playing the position as a rookie. He is a wide-bodied, shorter back who didn’t show the power you would expect and also wasn’t real light on his feet or agile. I still have hope for Carter, though. As is the case with fellow second-year RB Jamie Harper in Tennessee, a true offseason could do Carter a lot of good. With the gaping holes that Indianapolis has on its roster, running back is not among the top needs. But it is far from a great positional group when comparing it to the rest of the league. Perhaps the Colts will add another runner in the middle rounds of the draft.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

The Colts have major needs across the board. Is running back one of them? Will they have the luxury of adding one to work with and compete against Donald Brown and Delone Carter?

INDIANAPOLIS -- The story of Titans-Colts in the first half has been the Indianapolis pass rush.

Matt Hasselbeck has not been sacked, but he has had little time to throw and has been forced repeatedly to dump the ball off. He floated a completion 22 yards to Lavelle Hawkins up the right sideline just before the half, and that set up a go-ahead field goal.

Tennessee is up 6-3 at the half of an ugly game.

We’ve seen 10 punts, eight first downs and seven penalties.

Two things suggest the Colts could break into the win column.

That steady pass rush that’s making it hard for the Titans to find anything significant in the passing game, and some steady running by the Colts' trio of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Delone Carter. Carter has a forearm injury.

Tennessee needs to find a couple big plays. If it does, it will be alright. If it can’t, the Titans are in serious jeopardy and the Colts will be celebrating for the first time all season.

Thoughts on theIndianapolis Colts’ 31-24 loss to the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium:

What it means: The Colts are 0-12, but get some credit for fighting back from a 31-3 deficit to get within a touchdown at the end. Quarterback Dan Orlovsky's final line -- 30-of-37 for 353 yards, two touchdowns and an interception -- gave him a 113.2 passer rating, less than 3 points off Tom Brady’s. But the bulk of Orlovsky’s completions and yards came after the Patriots had built a significant cushion.

What I didn’t like: The Patriots top two passing targets had their way with the Colts. Wes Welker was targeted by Brady 11 times and caught the pass all 11 times. Tight end Rob Gronkowski had two receiving touchdowns and one on what was judged to be a lateral. The Patriots scored on four touchdowns and a field goal on five of their first six possessions. On offense, running back Delone Carter lost a fumble, and such moments negate whatever confidence he’s built up during the week in practice from the coaching staff.

What I liked: Again, take it in the context of New England’s big early lead, but the Colts allowed on 3.0 yards per carry, converted 10 of 15 third downs and gained 437 net yards.

What’s next: The Colts travel to Baltimore for another very difficult AFC matchup that in recent years has typically had big playoff implications.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Throwback football personified by a bloody Brian Cushing has the Texans three games over .500 for the first time in franchise history, writes John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate have four 100-plus-yard efforts apiece this season, writes Dale Robertson of The Houston Chronicle. “And to think that just two years ago, before Tate had been drafted and while Foster was trying to shuck the anonymity of being an undrafted rookie free agent, the Texans didn't deliver a 100-yard afternoon until Foster broke through on the season's final Sunday.” It’s an incredible advantage and luxury to have two backs of such high quality.

Much-maligned cornerback Kareem Jackson may have played his best game for the Texans, writes McClain. I’m glad to see the progress, but need to see this caliber of play against a tougher opponent in a tighter game.

Richard Justice of the Chronicle can’t find much to nitpick about out of the win over the Browns.

Brooks Reed is picking up what the Texans lost when Mario Williams went down, says Jeffrey Martin of the Chronicle.

Shaun Cody picked off a two-point conversion pass, says the Chronicle staff.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were frustrated and baffled by another blowout loss, writes Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Bob Kravitz of the Star looks at the Colts’ competition with Miami for the No. 1 pick in the draft: “Remember the day when we watched the scoreboard to see how soon the Colts might clinch home-field advantage? Remember how we spent November preparing the annual rest-'em-or-play-'em debate? Now we're a city of Dolfans, checking our phones to get updates on the Miami game.”

Kelvin Hayden had a great day for the Falcons but feels for his old teammates, says Phillip B. Wilson.

Donald Brown got most of the carries after Delone Carter lost a fumble, says Chappell.

Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald says the Dolphins trading for Peyton Manning is an intriguing possibility.

Kravitz’s report card.

Nate Dunlevy of 18to88.com shreds Kravitz’s Sunday column in the Indianapolis Star that shredded Chris Polian.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Among the class of rookie quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert’s been subpar, writes Tania Ganguli of the Times-Union. But anticipation, footwork and mechanics are coachable flaws, says one analyst. I think most of us understand the limitations he’s got with the Jaguars' offensive personnel. Still, we just want one big flash that shows off the promise.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans botched the second half and lost to the Bengals Sunday, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean. The vibe about the team that had gone from 3-1 to 4-4 has changed.

The Titans have a split personality that leaves David Climer of The Tennessean struggling to see them better than 8-8 at season’s end.

Chris Johnson had a solid first half, then disappeared, says Wyatt. Also covered in this notebook: Jared Cook’s fumble, Mike Munchak’s fourth-down decision, Damian Williams’ great catch and an injury rundown.

The offense found a groove in the first half, then was a second-half disaster, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Receiver A.J. Green was pretty special against the Titans, writes Glennon.

Wyatt’s report card.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The stuff I wanted to see from the Indianapolis Colts would have strayed from the sort of approach you could call “The Colts’ way.”

But guess what? When you’re heading for 0-8 without one of the league’s all-time greats in your lineup, you need to find something new.

When “we do what we do” goes by the wayside because you can’t do it, what do you do? Sunday’s 27-10 loss to the Titans at LP Field did little to answer the question.

I have two primary points of contention with the way coach Jim Caldwell and his staff handled the game.

The return game: Joe Lefeged brought kickoffs out of the end zone from 5 yards deep, 6 yards deep and 3 yards deep and didn’t scare the 20-yard line. He left 18 yards on the field he could have gotten by taking a knee.

Caldwell said it was as much the failures of the blockers to do what was outlined for them as it was the return man.

But the Colts have been a poor special teams team for a long time. Maybe they figure all the short returns are worth the trade for the home run they will hit someday. But I don’t care what kind of great plan you drew up and what kind of great practice week you had bringing balls out of the end zone. It’s simply not realistic to expect that all of a sudden things will open up for you.

With Peyton Manning running the offense, a lost 5 or 8 yards at the start of a drive is no big deal. With Curtis Painter and the current team on the field, you need every yard you can get.

So doing what they were doing was simply not reasoned out well enough.

Going for it: Indianapolis was down 20-0 at the half. That’s a big deficit. I understand we’ve seen teams storm back from that and more this season, and that everyone is optimistic about their halftime adjustments. But for these Colts, being overly optimistic is irrational.

On nine possessions in the first half, the Colts had not gotten closer to the Titans’ end zone than the Indianapolis 46-yard line.

When the Colts finally got something going early in the first half, they had a chance to show the Titans they were going to be a mouse or a lion, and Caldwell didn’t seem to give a whole lot of consideration to the lion route.

The Colts moved 58 yards in 13 plays and had some semblance of rhythm as they faced third-and 4 from the Tennessee 4-yard line. Delone Carter just had a couple 4-yard runs.

What’s lost by making it two-down territory and showing some confidence that the rookie back could get 4 more in two chances at it? To get to 20-7 there would have felt like real progress.

Instead, Adam Vinatieri kicked a 22-yard field goal.

Which team do you think left the field feeling like it won that series?

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Thoughts on the Titans’ 27-10 win over the Colts at LP Field.

What it means: The Titans are back over .500 at 4-3 after their first AFC South win in three division games. They got contributions from a lot of different places to beat a team everyone has beaten, but hardly got an answer for all the things that ail them right now. The Colts are now halfway through their season without a win and never posed a threat to pull an upset in this one.

What I liked, Titans: Tennessee got a giant play on special teams with Patrick Bailey blocking a punt and Jason McCourty grabbing it out of the air for an easy touchdown. The Titans turned tipped balls into takeaways, with Michael Griffin and Barrett Ruud snatching interceptions.

What I liked, Colts: The combination of Delone Carter (nine carries for 46 yards) and Donald Brown (10 for 33 and a score) ran the ball reasonably well. After a point the Titans were happy to see handoffs that ran time off the clock and kept the game moving, but still, being outrun in a game that took this shape was a bad development for the Titans and a good one for the Colts. Curtis Painter shredded the Titans’ defense late.

What I didn’t like, Titans: I don’t care how poor the blocking may have been, Chris Johnson didn’t show me sufficient effort after contact as he took 14 carries for 34 yards. On many plays he looked to give up as soon as the option for anything big was gone. He needs to worm, wiggle and work the way Javon Ringer (14 for 60) did. That’s the job. It’s not all sprints and bongo drums.

What I didn’t like, Colts: Penalties and special-teams play were both just killers. Indianapolis had 10 accepted penalties for 66 yards, consistently allowed Joe Lefeged to bring kickoffs out of the end zone and gave up a giant play with the blocked punt in the end zone that became an easy seven points for Tennessee.

What’s next: The Titans host the Cincinnati Bengals in the third game of their three-game homestand. Indianapolis plays Atlanta at Lucas Oil Stadium.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- After crossing off inactives and drawing lines to move guys around and up the depth chart, my flip card for the Colts' offense looks silly.

Ryan Diem, Anthony Castonzo and Joe Reitz all didn’t travel.

So the line will look like this:

LT Jeff Linkenbach, LG Seth Olsen, C Jeff Saturday, RG Mike Tepper, RT Quinn Ojinnaka.

Three of those players -- Olsen, Tepper and Ojinnaka – were not on the Colts' opening day roster.

The group will start out blocking for running back Delone Carter, who is starting ahead of the injured Joseph Addai, who is dressed.

On defense, cornerback Jacob Lacey is a scratch and will be replaced by Kevin Thomas.

The Titans suffer one big lineup loss. Their primary blocking tight end, Craig Stevens, is out with a rib injury and Daniel Graham will start in his place.

The full lists…

Indianapolis:

• WR Anthony Gonzalez
• QB Peyton Manning
• CB Jacob Lacey
• G Ryan Diem
• T Anthony Castonzo
• G Joe Reitz
• DT Drake Nevis

Tennessee:

• QB Rusty Smith
• S Chris Hope
• LB Colin McCarthy
• OT Byron Stingily
• DT Zach Clayton
• TE Craig Stevens
• DE William Hayes

It’s ugly in Indianapolis.

At 0-7, the Colts are talking about sticking together, improving and giving themselves a chance to win.

But as they prepare for a trip to Nashville for a Sunday meeting with the Titans at LP Field, they are a severely broken team. Where they would be with Peyton Manning is an interesting hypothetical question, but we’re dealing with realities. And those realities are the sort that will test the franchise’s stitching -- seamwork that might not hold together when this is all over.

Who’s at fault? Everyone’s got a hand in it, but let’s look at the Colts from a couple of angles.

A big cover-up: It’s not a secret that Manning has helped cover up a lot of flaws and allowed the franchise to under-address certain areas.

The Colts during the Manning era have never been much concerned with size, always valuing speed and instincts more. They’ve never worried about stocking special teams with any veteran backups, in part because they spend their money on stars or adding a high-quality return man. They’ve settled for being below average running the ball. And they’ve won despite a general inability to stop the run.

Without their four-time MVP running the offense, all those things are magnified in ways they’ve never been before.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re built to have Manning at the controls, and he’s been there all the time from the very beginning in 1998 until opening day this season.

There are maybe two teams and markets in the league that would not trade for what the Colts have done since 1999. Twelve consecutive playoff seasons followed by one complete dud? Where do I sign up for that?

Construct questions: That said, regardless of a serious neck surgery to the star quarterback, what exactly was the plan in the secondary? Is an evaluation that leaves Jacob Lacey, Terrence Johnson, Kevin Thomas and Chris Rucker as cornerbacks Nos. 2 through 5 good enough? Absolutely not.

The Colts get credit for adding a couple of outside veterans this season -- linebacker Ernie Sims, and defensive ends Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton. But the drafting has dropped off.

Set aside the most recent class, as it’s too early to judge.

The Colts drafted 41 players from 2005 through 2010. I count one star, safety Antoine Bethea, and two guys who can become stars, linebacker Pat Angerer and receiver Austin Collie (if he’s working with Manning). Running back Joseph Addai is a good fit who does more than people think. And receiver Pierre Garcon and cornerback Jerraud Powers have been pretty solid starters.

Sure, the Colts drafted higher in the five years before. Still, those classes produced five guys who rank among the best players of their generation at their positions: tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, safety Bob Sanders, and receiver Reggie Wayne. The next tier provided steady starters on the offensive line (Jake Scott, Ryan Diem) and at linebacker (David Thornton).

That list is more than a third of a starting team, a big-time core. As those guys age or disappear, I'm not seeing a core in waiting.

Colts president-turned-vice chairman Bill Polian said recently on his radio show that they needed to have done better recently, particularly at defensive tackle and cornerback.

And there is a domino effect to the problem. Find Tarik Glenn’s ultimate replacement at left tackle in 2007, and you don’t need to use your top pick in 2011 on Anthony Castonzo. Hit on Donald Brown in the first round in 2009, and Delone Carter might not be necessary in the fourth round in 2011.

The Polians: Bill Polian has been pulling back and yielding responsibility to his son, GM Chris Polian. (Chris politely declined to be interviewed for this story.)

We don’t yet have much tape on Chris Polian, so to speak. Bill Polian is a good talent evaluator who has had success in three NFL stops and has done well to build a team with which Manning has won. But Bill Polian also has overseen those recent draft drop-offs.

His strong-willed personality is part of what has made him good at his job, and his big-picture assessment of important league issues is as intelligent as anyone’s. He’s got clout and influence that extend beyond Indianapolis.

Stylistically, he’s a stubborn and demanding boss. There are indications from within that, without the steady stream of personnel hits he provided earlier in his tenure, some inside the building are tiring of the way things are run.

Bill Polian recently talked about how Curtis Painter's play vindicates the team for having faith in him, but failed to mention that faith was so strong that the team signed Kerry Collins to a $4 million contract shortly before the season started and handed him the starting job.

I suspect Bill Polian has the backing of owner Jim Irsay for as long as he wants it. That would ensure safety for Chris Polian, too.

Bill Polian made the Manning-over-Ryan Leaf call in 1998. Because of the way Leaf busted, people forget that was a coin flip at the time, that Leaf was regarded as a big-time prospect just as much as Manning was. Polian called it correctly, built a team that’s been to two Super Bowls and won one, got a new stadium built, and greatly enhanced the value of Irsay’s franchise.

Cryptic messages: Further complicating things is Irsay, who clearly gets a kick out of being the center of NFL attention in the Twitter-verse but has undermined some of his people with it.

He announced the team added Collins while coach Jim Caldwell was conducting his daily news conference. It did Caldwell no favors, as he appeared completely out of the loop.

Most recently, following the 62-7 loss in New Orleans on Sunday night, Irsay provided this gem:

“Titanic collapse, apologies 2 all ColtsNation...problems identifiable;solutions in progress but complex in nature/ better days will rise again”

A day later, he added:

"Just because you perceive problems on the horizon,and you possess solutions..doesn't mean they are avoidable and implementation is instant"

Solutions in progress, but complex in nature. That sounds to me like what would be written in big silver letters on the lobby wall of a consulting company on a TV show. Or a clever, but far-too-long name for a band.

It also sounds like change is going to come.

Coaching questions: While Bill Polian recently said that adding Jim Tressel to the staff as a replay consultant was Caldwell’s idea, it’s a weird-looking move that’s made some of us wonder whether a bigger role awaits the former Ohio State coach.

Caldwell does a nice job managing personalities, looking at things philosophically and staying on message. I believe he’s a good teacher, and his patient, quiet style is generally healthy for a team with a good share of veteran stars.

But he has blind spots, too, and is hardly a strategy master. There are bound to be significant changes at the conclusion of what’s sure to be a dreadful season, and he’ll be at the front of the line.

If he does the best job we can remember at holding a terrible, ineffective team together, is that enough? I’d guess not.

Injuries: This team gets hurt too much. There is a huge element of bad luck to it, of course. But is there something bigger at work as well?

Last season as quality players went down, Manning helped some role players such as tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Blair White emerge. This season, guys such as linebacker Gary Brackett and safety Melvin Bullitt were lost for the season early, and there's been a revolving door on the offensive line because of injuries.

The Colts are constantly testing their depth and shuffling the back end of their roster. There is only so much shuffling a depth chart can handle.

I believe they need to attempt some change that might have a positive effect on their overall health -- whether it be adopting new training philosophies, altering how they evaluate prospects or changing personnel philosophies.

It's easy to ask them to figure out why they tend to suffer so many injuries, and it's hard to find an answer. But some sort of shift is due, even as we know it comes with no guarantee of better health.

When the current approach is failing, it's OK to try something else. It's not admitting some sort of failure; it's merely part of a necessary process of evaluating and revising operations.

Suck for Luck: Given a chance to draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, I think the Colts would. Bill Polian can give Chris Polian the guy expected to be the NFL's next great quarterback, and Chris Polian's legacy would be built on a fantastic cornerstone.

But there is no losing on purpose to get in position for Luck. You think Wayne or Mathis is interested in such a master plan?

Said veteran center and team tone-setter Jeff Saturday: “I'll steal a Robert Mathis quote: 'I ain't sucking for anybody.'”

The Next Level statistical packet produced each week by ESPN Stats & Information is a veritable treasure trove.

The packet and I spent some quality time together this morning.

Our big theme out of it shall be yards after the catch. AFC South teams are excellent in the category on both sides of the ball.

Among players with nine catches of more, the division boasts some guys who’ve done very well after the catch:

• Texans RB Arian Foster is first with a 15.3-yard average after the catch.
• Texans FB James Casey is second with 13.4.
• Jaguars RB Deji Karim is tied for fifth at 12.3.
• Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew is 14th at 10.3

In overall YAC, the Jaguars are getting 50.1 percent of their yards in the passing game after the catch, the fifth-most in the league. The Colts are seventh (48.5), the Texans are eighth (48.3) and the Titans are ninth (48.0).

I’m a bit surprised here. YAC is usually a product of well-thrown balls that lead targets into open spaces and explosive players who are able to take advantage. But the Jaguars and Colts have inexperienced quarterbacks and the Jaguars and Titans lack explosive playmakers.

"Good YAC really tells me is that there is most likely very good quarterback play in terms of accuracy and hitting guys in stride....but I'm not sure how much that describes the quarterbacks in your division," said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. "Hasselbeck and Schaub qualify. Playing calling also has a ton to do with it. Bubble screens/slants/etc. are going to yield more YAC than out routes."

Three of the teams are also good at limiting yards after the catch, which also surprises me as I don’t think the Jaguars (tied for fourth with a 6.4 yard YAC average), the Texans (tied for sixth at 6.6) and the Titans (tied for 10th) rank as great tackling teams though they can be good at rallying to the ball.

The Colts and Patriots are the league’s worst teams at defending yards after the catch, allowing an average of 8.5.

Other Next Level nuggets of note:

• Matt Hasselbeck is second in the league in the red zone, with a 122.5 passer rating and a ridiculous 96.3 QBR while Matt Schaub is 23rd, at 74.9 and 15.5.
• Blaine Gabbert is averaging 8.9 yards per pass in the air. He’s throwing on third-and-long a lot. But Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis should make for quality targets on short throws and help drive that number down. Curtis Painter is at 8.4, Hasselbeck and are at Schaub 8.1.
• Reggie Wayne (53), Mike Thomas (52) and Pierre Garcon (51) rank eighth, ninth, and tied for 10th in targets.
• Jones-Drew has five carries inside the 3-yard line for negative-9 yards and no touchdowns. Delone Carter has three carries for 4 yards and two touchdowns. Painter has two carries for no yards.
• Six of Jacksonville’s seven interceptions have come when it’s rushed four or fewer.
• Eleven of Houston’s 19 sacks have come when it’s rushed four or fewer.
• When the Colts rush five or more defenders, they are allowing quarterbacks to complete 62.8 percent of their passes, have no interceptions and one sack. When they rush four or fewer, they are allowing a league-worst 75.5 completion percentage with three interceptions and 10 sacks. They’ve rushed a defensive back once all season. (Jacksonville is tied for the second fewest rushes by a defensive back with 11.)
• The Texans have used two tight ends on 323 plays, 65 more than the New England, which ranks second. The Titans have used two tight ends on 68 plays, the second fewest in the NFL.

Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

The Texans played a perfect game against one of the NFL’s surprise teams. They walked onto that field, took control almost from the start and never gave the Titans a moment to think they had a chance to win, writes Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle.

Danieal Manning looks to be out at least eight to 10 weeks after breaking his leg, reports John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Not only was The Texans’ 41-7 win in Nashville the most lopsided victory in franchise history, it was the worst defeat the Titans have suffered on their home field. John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reviews the game.

Ben Tate topped 100 yards rushing in a complimentary role, says Jeffrey Martin of the Chronicle.

The Texans are alone in first place in the AFC South, a first for this late in the season according to McClain and Martin.

The Texans had a confidence about them that Jerome Solomon of the Chronicle is not sure he’s seen from them before.

The Texans will miss Manning more than Mario Williams, says Lance Zierlein of The Z Report.

Indianapolis Colts

The team with the worst record in the NFL played like the worst team in the NFL, writes Phil Richards of The Indianapolis Star. "Man, they scored so much, their fans got tired of cheering," Colts defensive end Robert Mathis said.

On a day when the winless Dolphins seemed to establish themselves as the worst team in the NFL, blowing a 15-point home lead to the Broncos in the final three minutes, the winless Colts outdid them, says Bob Kravitz of the Star.

The defense offered no resistance, says Phillip B. Wilson of the Star.

A fumble and a brutal loss meant a breakout day for running back Delone Carter didn’t mean much, says Mike Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

GM Gene Smith has an unwavering confidence in his approach and his team, despite the 1-5 record, says Tania Ganguli of the Times-Union. Says Smith: "If you believe in what you're doing, you work with the process you employ, that's how I deal with it. It is a part of life in the NFL. There's highs, there's lows. This sport will test your manhood." With an uncertain future, he said he’s playing out his contract the way he often asks players to do.

If the players are so fixated on taking heat off Jack Del Rio, then tonight’s prime-time clash with the Baltimore Ravens at EverBank Field represents maybe the last real chance to alter the perception that their head coach is a goner, says Gene Frenette of the T-U.

Tennessee Titans

A blowout loss to the Texans appeared to rock the psyche of the Titans, writes Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

“Considering the utter futility we saw on display, this is the first major crossroads of Mike Munchak’s head coaching career. His personality is to stay the course and diligently keep plugging away, but more radical action should be considered,” writes David Climer of The Tennessean.

The Titans had their worst passing day of the season, which will only raise the volume on the outside talk about Terrell Owens, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

The defense is trending in the wrong direction, says Glennon.

The Titans aren’t thinking Javon Ringer can solve the run-game issues, says Wyatt.

At this point, Chris Johnson is nothing special, and the easiest way to try to solve things is to sit him, says David Boclair.

Don Banks of SI.com is already ready for Jake Locker. I’m not putting much of the blame for the past two losses on Matt Hasselbeck, and his leadership is a key to turning things around, if it can be done. The Titans won’t give a thought to benching him.

Four guys I’d like to see more of starting this weekend:

Houston -- The Texans keep calling Kareem Jackson and Jason Allen both starters in their cornerback group. If you really think that way, then how does Allen disappear in Baltimore and how do you end up saying afterward you had hoped he’d play more? Are you unable to monitor who’s playing how much in the course of a game? Jackson is still not good. I’d like to see more of the alternative.

Indianapolis -- Running back Donald Brown came into the season close to being labeled a bust. While the 2009 first-round draft pick can still be overly hesitant, overall he has done a good job this season. He’s averaging 5.6 yards a carry, but has only taken 13 handoffs. I understand it’s a small sample size. Why not see what a bigger sample size looks like? I like Delone Carter a lot, but he’s more a short-yardage guy.

Jacksonville -- Defensive end John Chick has pass-rush skills. It was apparent last year when the Colts brought him in from the CFL. He spent time on their practice squad but didn’t make the final cut this season. The Jaguars picked him up and he’s showed an ability to get in the backfield when he gets on the field. With Austen Lane now out for the year, the door is open for Chick, and I expect to see production from the pass-rusher.

Tennessee -- I am not a proponent of taking carries away from Chris Johnson. The Titans need to keep giving it to him while figuring out what’s wrong with the run game. But I do believe offensive coordinator Chris Palmer ought to find a way to get rookie running back Jamie Harper some touches somewhere along the way. How? I’m not quite sure. But there has to be a way where they don’t disrupt what they are trying to get going with Johnson.

Thoughts on the Indianapolis Colts’ 27-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium:

What it means: The Colts remain winless, falling to 0-6. They had a fourth-quarter chance to pull even, but Adam Vinatieri's 52-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Nate Clements. Then Reggie Nelson forced a fumble by Pierre Garcon, and the Bengals got a 35-yard touchdown return by Carlos Dunlap to pull out of range.

What I didn’t like: Tight end Dallas Clark has suffered as much as anyone without Peyton Manning. But his first-quarter fumble, when he was stripped by the Bengals, set up Cincinnati for the game’s opening touchdown and had nothing to do with the quarterback. Clark did bounce back with a nice fourth-quarter catch on the right boundary and a 1-yard TD catch.

What I liked: Delone Carter took some carries and ran with the sort of authority the Colts drafted him for, converting a couple of short-yardage situations. And Donald Brown had a nice 18-yard touchdown run on a day when the Colts ran the ball reasonably well -- totaling 94 yards and 4.1 yards a carry.

Stat of note: The Colts turned the ball over three times and didn’t take it away once.

What’s next: The Colts head for New Orleans and play a rematch of Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints aren’t far off from the team that won that game, while the Colts aren’t even a shell of the AFC champions of two seasons ago.