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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

Thoughts on the Colts' draft from two people involved in evaluating personnel for NFL teams:

Guy No. 1:

“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”

“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”

“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”

“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”

Guy No. 2:

“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “

“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.

“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”

“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”

“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”

With free agency slowing down and the draft quickly approaching, Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson breaks down the running back situations in the AFC South.

1. Houston Texans: The Texans have the best set of running backs in the NFL in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Of course, Houston’s scheme and blocking are phenomenal, but these two are outstanding in their own right. Foster in particular would fit any scheme. He has size, excellent vision, patience, explosive traits and can be a physical player with the ability to break off long runs. Foster is also extremely adept in the passing game. He gains separation in his routes, catches the ball cleanly and is also an above-average pass-blocker. Only 25, Foster should have a lot of great production ahead of him. The Texans are banking on it after locking him up with a long-term contract right before free agency began. You could make the argument that Foster is the best running back in football right now, especially when factoring in Adrian Peterson’s injury. Tate averaged a whopping 5.4 yards per carry in his second season. It could be argued that he is the most effective backup running back in the league right now. He is more of a straight-line runner than Foster and doesn’t fit all schemes as well as Foster, but he is perfect for what Houston does with its movement-based zone blocking scheme. Tate is quick to get downhill, decisive and runs with power, yet like Foster, can run away from defenders. Houston is loaded at running back.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew had as good of a season in 2011 as any running back in the NFL -- and every defense Jacksonville faced keyed on stopping him. Averaging 4.7 yards per carry under his circumstances was truly a remarkable performance. Everyone makes note of Jones-Drew’s lack of size when discussing him, but he’s a very powerful runner with exceptional leverage. He might not have quite the same burst and long speed as he once did, but his running skills are as sharp as ever. He has a great history of finding the end zone and is excellent as an outlet receiver. Jones-Drew can also stand up a blitzing linebacker as well as any running back in the league. At just 27, he is on a Hall of Fame career pace. Jones-Drew’s backups are Rashad Jennings and Deji Karim. Jennings missed the entire season, but is a very good running back when right. He runs hard and has light feet for a bigger back. As mentioned above, the circumstances were far from optimal last season, but Karim’s 2.1-yard average was simply abysmal. Karim has the look of a poor man’s Jones-Drew … a very poor man’s.

3. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson clearly had an incredibly disappointing 2011 season. He ran with little conviction or competitiveness for much of the season and too often looked to hit the home run instead of grinding out the tough yards. He improved late in the season, though, and there is no question Johnson can remain among the best players at his position. His speed has become legendary. Johnson is also a very good receiver who is lethal in space. I am not suggesting that we will see the back who exceeded 2,000 yards on the ground in 2009, but I am expecting a bounce-back season from Johnson in 2012. The Titans’ run blocking should be better and to me, Johnson is simply a much better player than what he showed on film for much of the season. There are also questions concerning what kind of shape he was in to start 2011. Javon Ringer is Tennessee’s top backup, but Jamie Harper also has ability. Ringer is much more reliable and proven, though. He runs hard with ample degrees of power and acceleration for a backup. Ringer is also an asset as a receiver and continues to improve in this area. Harper has a decent all-around skill set, but his 2.6-yard average last year is inexcusable.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Although Donald Brown has never really lived up to his first-round draft status, he was one of the few bright spots for the Colts last year. His 4.8 yards-per-carry average on the worst team in the league last season does stand out. It was by far Brown’s best season as a pro. As running backs go, I see Brown as a jack-of-all-trades but a master of none in many ways. He doesn’t have a single trait that stands out above all others, but as he showed in 2011, he is quite solid in all areas. Brown also is a decent receiver and a very good pass-blocker. Delone Carter was rather disappointing in all phases of playing the position as a rookie. He is a wide-bodied, shorter back who didn’t show the power you would expect and also wasn’t real light on his feet or agile. I still have hope for Carter, though. As is the case with fellow second-year RB Jamie Harper in Tennessee, a true offseason could do Carter a lot of good. With the gaping holes that Indianapolis has on its roster, running back is not among the top needs. But it is far from a great positional group when comparing it to the rest of the league. Perhaps the Colts will add another runner in the middle rounds of the draft.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.

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Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

The Colts have major needs across the board. Is running back one of them? Will they have the luxury of adding one to work with and compete against Donald Brown and Delone Carter?

INDIANAPOLIS -- Five things to look for tonight as the Texans take on the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Arian Foster as a pass catcher: Houston won’t have receiver Andre Johnson and is unlikely to have tight end Owen Daniels, the team’s two most consistent downfield threats in the pass game. Look for rookie quarterback T.J. Yates to rely on running back Arian Foster as an outlet. Foster’s done a lot of great work as a receiver this season. He’s a different back than Tennessee’s Chris Johnson to be sure, but the Colts are coming off a strong defensive effort in a win over the Titans, when Tennessee tried far too much dinking and dunking to Johnson and underneath targets.

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. a kid: The pass-rushing ends have often feasted on young quarterbacks, and Yates has been on the injury report this week with an issue with his throwing shoulder. Indianapolis would love to deliver a big shot early that has Yates thinking about the rush and that shoulder some, too.

Something deep for Houston: Yates looked to get a little gun shy last week after a couple mistakes. When the Texans aren’t threatening downfield and a defense can key on Foster and the run game, things change. If coach and play-caller Gary Kubiak doesn’t feel like the Texans can get something long to Jacoby Jones organically, maybe he’ll have something tricky designed to keep the Colts honest.

Donald Brown on the go: The Colts running back is coming off his best game, and a fantastic, change of course, 80-yard touchdown run. Will the Colts try to maximize the chance to turn that into a springboard or will the Texans snuff him out? Indianapolis wants to be more of a running offense right now. Brown’s not the best back in pass protection, however, so he may not even be on the field in some big situations since the Texans’ front rushes the passer so well.

Orlovsky familiarity: A guy playing against his old team is often an overplayed storyline. But the Texans let quarterback Dan Orlovsky go in the offseason. Kubiak spent two seasons trying to develop Orlovsky into a quality backup for Houston. So this defense should have some special insight into the situations that he’s particularly uncomfortable with. He didn’t throw for 100 yards in last week’s win, but he also didn’t throw a pick or have a fumble. I bet the Texans doubt he can play a second clean game in a row.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. The Texans’ third-down defense: The Panthers converted 9 of 14 third downs against the Texans on Sunday, the sort of number that’s hard to survive. Houston has been very good on third down this season, and it’s been a key to its defensive and overall success. But the Texans have slipped in recent weeks in the category. After Week 13, they were second in the league in third-down defense. In just three weeks they’ve dropped to eighth. It’s tough to move that much that quickly in season rankings. They must end the trend if they intend to secure one of the top seeds and increase the potential for more than one game at home.

2. The Jaguars’ national credibility: They've played two of their past three games on national television in prime time but did nothing to offset the national reputation they often complain about. Nobody will remember the Dec. 11 41-14 home win over Tampa Bay because it was sandwiched by a "Monday Night Football" 38-14 loss to San Diego and the 41-14 "Thursday Night Football" debacle in Atlanta. The wheels came off in a way even the biggest Jaguars pessimist probably couldn’t have envisioned, and the offseason can’t arrive soon enough.

3. Tommie Campbell, Tennessee Titans special-teamer: He got flagged for four penalties on special teams in Indianapolis, including two 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. It was the sort of undisciplined showing that Mike Munchak has called unacceptable, and to the coach’s credit, Campbell was benched -- although it might have come a bit earlier. Campbell is a blazing fast, great athlete with a future as a cornerback for the Titans if he can avoid the combination of boneheaded plays and temper issues. But he’s got to get past such things if he wants to remain in the plan.

RISING

1. Pat Angerer, Indianapolis Colts linebacker: He’s had a great season flying around and making plays. Against the Titans, he keyed an excellent defensive effort, forcing a Jared Cook fumble that killed Tennessee's momentum and picking off a bad ball from Matt Hasselbeck. In a season with so many lousy storylines for the Colts, Angerer has emerged as a reliable tackling machine who can play the run and the pass. He is definitely a piece of what the team will build around. He moved to the middle from the strong side when Gary Brackett suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the opener. It will be difficult to take Angerer out of the spot now.

2. The image of the AFC South as a terrible division: We had to turn something negative into a riser here after bad losses by three of our four teams. Even with their win, the Colts remain the worst team in the league with a 1-13 record, and the Jaguars rank in or near the bottom five. Tennessee is a completely average 7-7, and the Texans, after the loss to Carolina, rank as just the third-best division leader/winner in the AFC. The division has four fewer wins than any other.

3. Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts running back: He’s largely regarded as a bust, but it’s not completely fair. He’s remembered for a blown pass protection that drew the ire of Peyton Manning, and he doesn’t have a fully rounded game. He’s spent a lot of time in the doghouse and has not been used as much as may be warranted. He can run, and he showed it in the win over the Titans, even before a great, freelanced 80-yard touchdown run that secured the win and made Tennessee’s defense look foolish. His 161-yard day should earn him more opportunities.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

The loss to Carolina might have been a wake-up call, and it will be good for the Texans to play again quickly on Thursday night in Indianapolis, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Gary Kubiak is concerned about Neil Rackers’ recent misses, says McClain.

Jeremy Shockey is clueless about the Texans’ patriotism, says McClain. McClain's never seen a team do so much for the military.

Indianapolis Colts

After a 13-game losing streak, the Colts are now looking to win a second game in a row, says Mike Chappell.

Donald Brown is breaking out, the Colts lined up with Mike Murphy’s numerical formula and Bill Polian wants young playmakers, says Phil Richards.

Nate Dunlevy of 18to88.com has crunched the numbers and says if the Colts are 2-14 and tied with St. Louis and/or Minnesota for the NFL’s worst record, Indy can’t lose the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick.

Bartending will be in high demand for Indianapolis’ Super Bowl, says Dana Hunsinger Benbow.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Even fellow players on the defense don’t always know who’s lining up in the defensive backfield for the Jaguars at this point, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Late on this one, but it’s significant: Shahid Khan said he’s willing to pay what it takes to lure the right guy to Jacksonville as the Jaguars’ next coach, says Vito Stellino of the Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

As long as Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, he’ll remain the starter, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Chris Johnson came out of the Colts’ game with an injured ankle but it won’t keep him out of the lineup, says Wyatt.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

T.J. Yates’ mistakes might be understandable, but what about the rest of the Texans? A sloppy team saw a seven-game winning streak end, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Based on his observations during the national anthem, Panthers tight end Jeremy Shockey judged the Texans to be unpatriotic, says McClain.

Turnovers and red zone busts are issues for the Texans, says McClain.

Lawrence Vickers made a contribution to the passing game, says the Chronicle crew.

It’s not a loss that will kill the Texans, says Jerome Solomon.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts got a win and made sure they won’t deal with the stigma of a winless season, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

The Colts spelled out what Peyton Manning’s done and said he will not play in the final two games, says Bob Kravitz. How much he’s throwing has been an issue and the divide between Manning and management is growing, the columnist writes.

Mike Chappell of the Star says a Dan Orlovsky block on Donald Brown’s big run amounted to a rent payment.

The Colts' defense ganged-up on Chris Johnson, says Phillip B. Wilson.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The sale of the Jaguars to Shahid Khan was a transaction executed in secrecy. Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union breaks down the ultimate trick play. Interesting details include the role of Eric Grubman, the NFL’s executive vice president of NFL ventures.

Khan introduced himself to the team before practice on Saturday, says Ganguli.

Dirk Koetter is reportedly a leading candidate for the Hawaii job, says Tania Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

With so much to play for, the Titans lost to the previously winless Colts. Players were embarrassed and ticked off over the performance, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Mike Munchak deflected blame from quarterback Matt Hasselbeck after the loss, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

The Colts ran the ball better than the Titans expected they could, says Glennon.

Special-teams mistakes landed Tommie Campbell on the bench, say Wyatt and Glennon.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Thoughts on the Colts’ 27-13 win over the Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium:

What it means: A happy day in Indy. The 2011 Colts won’t be joining the 2008 Detroit Lions in NFL annals as an 0-16 team. They played tight and efficient defense, rushed the passer well while not allowing big plays, took the ball away three times and ran the ball with some consistency en route to their first win. It was the first NFL win for Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky, who was also on that Lions team. The result effectively ended the Titans’ playoff hopes. Now 7-7 they’d need a ton of help to earn the last wild-card spot at 9-7.

What I liked -- Colts: Big plays on defense. Maligned cornerback Jacob Lacey took a pass away from Chris Johnson and returned it 32 yards for a score. Pat Angerer killed the Titans when they looked to be getting things going in the fourth quarter, stripping Jared Cook for a fumble which was recovered by Chris Rucker. Angerer also picked off Matt Hasselbeck in the end zone on a deep try for Nate Washington thrown as the quarterback got hit. The Colts got a consistently good push up front and matched it with tight coverage, allowing the Titans few big chunks. Outside of an awkward trip as he backed out from center and handed off, Orlovsky played with composure and decisiveness. The defense probably tackled as well as it has all season -- even on Chris Johnson’s late 35-yard run, Rucker caught him and pulled him down from behind.

What I didn’t like -- Titans: Yes, Matt Hasselbeck was under consistent pressure. But a combination of play calling by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and decision-making by Hasselbeck was far too conservative. (The deep shot to Washington that was picked was too little, too late.) Tennessee seemed hell-bent on not taking shots that would stretch out the Colts' defense, checking down and throwing short passes that featured Johnson far too often. Why, when so many teams have made so many big plays against Indy this season, were the Titans so willing to settle for short stuff?

Second-guess city: I backed the Titans' decision to start and stick with Hasselbeck into the fourth quarter. It’s easy to second-guess now. But maybe Jake Locker’s mobility would have made a difference and opened things up. A veteran quarterback typically gets the benefit of the doubt, but given Hasselbeck’s poor performance and the result, Mike Munchak will have to expound on his rationale for going the direction he did.

What I wonder: How much will the Colts allow themselves to celebrate and enjoy this one when, as cathartic as it must be, it gets them to 1-13?

What’s next: The Colts have a quick turn and host division-leading Houston on Thursday night. The Texans beat the Colts on opening day. The Titans host Jacksonville on Christmas Eve. The Jaguars beat the Titans on opening day.

John Lloyd from Yulee, Fla., writes: I count 24 players on jag IR. How did you get 27?

Paul Kuharsky: They placed a couple on IR that they eventually reached a settlement with. That means they can release those players while they're still injured. So they disappeared from the roster. But their seasons ended when they were put on IR.

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Jason from Philadelphia writes: You get 10 Colts players to keep next year, who are they? Top 5 in order, 6-10 doesn't have to be. Manning doesn't count. Freeney Mathis Castonzo Bethea Nevis Angerer Ijalana Wayne Clark Collie. Picked the tackles and Nevis because they are new draft picks and have shown promise when healthy. I've always stayed positive but that list was harder than I thought it would be. The talent level has really dropped off. I almost put McAfee in there.

Paul Kuharsky: OK, Manning doesn’t count and I am really concentrating on having the best team I can next year. I’ve changed this a bit from when I emailed you back.

I’d go: Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pat Angerer, Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana, Drake Nevis and Jerraud Powers. Donald Brown just missed. I think he can actually run and will get out of the doghouse if there is a new regime. I think Dallas Clark's injuries are starting to mount and I don’t know if you can expect anything close to a full season from him.

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Jimmy Bagley from Philly, Pa., writes: Looking at your rankings, I am trying to figure out why you have Houston so low.... Why wouldn't they be at the number 4 spot? Green Bay, obviously number one with a bullet. Baltimore, number two ok. N.O. should be 3 and the Texans at 4... At this point in the season, why aren't the tie breakers used to figure these in.... Houston holds the tie breaker over both Pit and NE.... They were the first team in the AFC to clinch, and have the best divisional record of all the teams.... Not to mention the number 2 defense in the league and a top 3 running game.... They have managed to win in all types of circumstances.... After last week’s come from behind win I thought for sure it would win over critics waiting for them to choke... What else is going to take for the respect to come in.

Paul Kuharsky: What you are looking for, apparently, is the official playoff order for the league right now. (If we do that, what’s the point?) What the power rankings are looking for is my opinion on where teams stand. The official playoff rankings of the moment don’t take into account a third-string quarterback as the starter. No matter how impressive T.J. Yates has been, we have a very small sample size so far. And I have a tough time ranking a team he’s leading ahead of one led by Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, who’ve won Super Bowls. The one case you can make is that the Texans should be ahead of Pittsburgh based on having beaten them. But the Steelers are a much better team now than they were then.

Also you suggest I should rank the Texans higher because they clinched earlier and have a better division record. So they get a reward for the Colts and Jaguars stinking and the Titans being average?

I have Houston sixth. I think we differ on whether that’s good or bad. I think it’s quite good.

I am continually amazed by how people regard the issue of respect. I think, universally, analysts are impressed by what the Texans have done and think they are a very good team. Apparently some of you think we should be holding parades for them and telecasting half-hour specials about their greatness.

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Scott Freistat from Hermitage, Tenn., writes: ESPN's latest ranking poll states that if the playoffs were to start today (12/13) the Texans would have the No. 1 seed. How is that possible considering they have the same records as the Ravens (10-3) and the Ravens own the head-to-head matchup? Please explain.

Paul Kuharsky: In a three-way tie, head-to-head results aren’t the top tiebreaker because it does nothing to factor in the third team. The Ravens win a tiebreaker over the Steelers being from same division. Then it’s Texans-Ravens-Patriots. If one team has swept the other two, it wins a tiebreaker. If not, then it’s conference record. The Texans win that right now.

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Brian Vining from Douglas, Ga., writes: Who is Matt Williamson? So I guess this so called expert wants to give up on a first round QB who has no weapons except for Maurice jones-Drew. Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year. He is a young QB who needs time to develop. With a good coach and a couple of WR who can catch the ball Gabbert will be great. I'm not saying the Jags is the best out of the three but if I were a coach and could go to a team with a young up and coming QB. A great RB in MJD and a much improved defense I would jump on it. That's not even to mention Gene Smith who has the right philosophy to build a team who can contend for years. National media at it again. Gabbert sucks, the Jags can't fill the stadium, Jags are moving to LA. Maybe if some of them would actually do a little homework they would know none of this is true.

Paul Kuharsky: Williamson is a former NFL scout who knows as much about current personnel as anyone in my business.

Your logic falls apart here: “Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year.” Then why is he the starter this year? Nothing catostrophic happened. The team chose to cut David Garrard and it chose to bench Luke McCown. Those moves made Gabbert the starter. If you don’t want him starting, arrange for him not to start. I don’t know how we can say he was not supposed to start and offer amnesty based on that. They are starting him. As promising as Gabbert may be, it’s not at all inaccurate to say he’s been horrible this season.

I like Smith, but the rebuild is not moving at a fast enough pace. His philosophy starts with foundation-building and two good lines. Three years in, I don’t see two good lines, do you? And where is anything close to a late-round home run?

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Mike M. from Houston writes: The next man up approach only works if the next man up has talent. The Texans have shown that they have talent beyond the 22 starters on the roster. Most have been draft picks, UDFA's, or were low level free agents when acquired (like Kevin Walter or Jason Allen). Does this make Rick Smith the front runner for executive of the year???

Paul Kuharsky: That’s an excellent point, that the next man up has to be equipped to do the job. Lots of teams without good depth get hurt and fall apart.

But let’s not make it like Rick Smith is at the powerful end of the spectrum of GMs in terms of decision-making. It’s a joint operation and he’s not bringing in anyone Gary Kubiak doesn’t sign off on. Wade Phillips had great influence on what they did in the draft and then free agency as well.

Thoughts on the Panthers’ 27-19 win over the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium:

What it means: The Colts lost a quality chance to break into the win column, failing to get into the end zone from the Panthers’ 3-yard line and not giving themselves a chance at a tying 2-point conversion. They remain well ahead in the “fight” for the No. 1 pick in the April draft and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

What I didn’t like: Curtis Painter threw two interceptions and had a fumble that Joseph Addai recovered. The Colts managed only one third-down conversion in nine chances and managed only 23:43 of possession time. Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams found the route to the end zone to be too easy on their touchdown runs. The no-call on the Colts’ second to last offensive play where it appeared pass interference was committed against tight end Jacob Tamme.

What I liked: Seeing Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney both in the sack column. Only two penalties. Jamaal Anderson with a field-goal block to preserve a 10-10 tie just before the half. Reggie Wayne’s first touchdown catch since Week 1, even if two Panthers crashed into each other and knocked themselves out of the play to allow it to happen. A ceremony putting Marvin Harrison’s name in the team’s ring of honor.

What I wonder: Will the Colts allow Donald Brown, who ran well with 80 yards and a TD on 14 carries, increased chances? Any doghouse issues from his early failures should be well behind him. Hand it to him a bunch and see how he can do.

What’s next: A Colts trip to New England would usually be for one of the NFL’s premier games of the season. That’s not the case this time, as the Patriots will be heavy, heavy favorites. There is no love lost between the Patriots and Colts, and I imagine Bill Belichick will make it hurt as much as he possibly can.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Throwback football personified by a bloody Brian Cushing has the Texans three games over .500 for the first time in franchise history, writes John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate have four 100-plus-yard efforts apiece this season, writes Dale Robertson of The Houston Chronicle. “And to think that just two years ago, before Tate had been drafted and while Foster was trying to shuck the anonymity of being an undrafted rookie free agent, the Texans didn't deliver a 100-yard afternoon until Foster broke through on the season's final Sunday.” It’s an incredible advantage and luxury to have two backs of such high quality.

Much-maligned cornerback Kareem Jackson may have played his best game for the Texans, writes McClain. I’m glad to see the progress, but need to see this caliber of play against a tougher opponent in a tighter game.

Richard Justice of the Chronicle can’t find much to nitpick about out of the win over the Browns.

Brooks Reed is picking up what the Texans lost when Mario Williams went down, says Jeffrey Martin of the Chronicle.

Shaun Cody picked off a two-point conversion pass, says the Chronicle staff.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were frustrated and baffled by another blowout loss, writes Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Bob Kravitz of the Star looks at the Colts’ competition with Miami for the No. 1 pick in the draft: “Remember the day when we watched the scoreboard to see how soon the Colts might clinch home-field advantage? Remember how we spent November preparing the annual rest-'em-or-play-'em debate? Now we're a city of Dolfans, checking our phones to get updates on the Miami game.”

Kelvin Hayden had a great day for the Falcons but feels for his old teammates, says Phillip B. Wilson.

Donald Brown got most of the carries after Delone Carter lost a fumble, says Chappell.

Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald says the Dolphins trading for Peyton Manning is an intriguing possibility.

Kravitz’s report card.

Nate Dunlevy of 18to88.com shreds Kravitz’s Sunday column in the Indianapolis Star that shredded Chris Polian.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Among the class of rookie quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert’s been subpar, writes Tania Ganguli of the Times-Union. But anticipation, footwork and mechanics are coachable flaws, says one analyst. I think most of us understand the limitations he’s got with the Jaguars' offensive personnel. Still, we just want one big flash that shows off the promise.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans botched the second half and lost to the Bengals Sunday, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean. The vibe about the team that had gone from 3-1 to 4-4 has changed.

The Titans have a split personality that leaves David Climer of The Tennessean struggling to see them better than 8-8 at season’s end.

Chris Johnson had a solid first half, then disappeared, says Wyatt. Also covered in this notebook: Jared Cook’s fumble, Mike Munchak’s fourth-down decision, Damian Williams’ great catch and an injury rundown.

The offense found a groove in the first half, then was a second-half disaster, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Receiver A.J. Green was pretty special against the Titans, writes Glennon.

Wyatt’s report card.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Thoughts on the Titans’ 27-10 win over the Colts at LP Field.

What it means: The Titans are back over .500 at 4-3 after their first AFC South win in three division games. They got contributions from a lot of different places to beat a team everyone has beaten, but hardly got an answer for all the things that ail them right now. The Colts are now halfway through their season without a win and never posed a threat to pull an upset in this one.

What I liked, Titans: Tennessee got a giant play on special teams with Patrick Bailey blocking a punt and Jason McCourty grabbing it out of the air for an easy touchdown. The Titans turned tipped balls into takeaways, with Michael Griffin and Barrett Ruud snatching interceptions.

What I liked, Colts: The combination of Delone Carter (nine carries for 46 yards) and Donald Brown (10 for 33 and a score) ran the ball reasonably well. After a point the Titans were happy to see handoffs that ran time off the clock and kept the game moving, but still, being outrun in a game that took this shape was a bad development for the Titans and a good one for the Colts. Curtis Painter shredded the Titans’ defense late.

What I didn’t like, Titans: I don’t care how poor the blocking may have been, Chris Johnson didn’t show me sufficient effort after contact as he took 14 carries for 34 yards. On many plays he looked to give up as soon as the option for anything big was gone. He needs to worm, wiggle and work the way Javon Ringer (14 for 60) did. That’s the job. It’s not all sprints and bongo drums.

What I didn’t like, Colts: Penalties and special-teams play were both just killers. Indianapolis had 10 accepted penalties for 66 yards, consistently allowed Joe Lefeged to bring kickoffs out of the end zone and gave up a giant play with the blocked punt in the end zone that became an easy seven points for Tennessee.

What’s next: The Titans host the Cincinnati Bengals in the third game of their three-game homestand. Indianapolis plays Atlanta at Lucas Oil Stadium.

It’s ugly in Indianapolis.

At 0-7, the Colts are talking about sticking together, improving and giving themselves a chance to win.

But as they prepare for a trip to Nashville for a Sunday meeting with the Titans at LP Field, they are a severely broken team. Where they would be with Peyton Manning is an interesting hypothetical question, but we’re dealing with realities. And those realities are the sort that will test the franchise’s stitching -- seamwork that might not hold together when this is all over.

Who’s at fault? Everyone’s got a hand in it, but let’s look at the Colts from a couple of angles.

A big cover-up: It’s not a secret that Manning has helped cover up a lot of flaws and allowed the franchise to under-address certain areas.

The Colts during the Manning era have never been much concerned with size, always valuing speed and instincts more. They’ve never worried about stocking special teams with any veteran backups, in part because they spend their money on stars or adding a high-quality return man. They’ve settled for being below average running the ball. And they’ve won despite a general inability to stop the run.

Without their four-time MVP running the offense, all those things are magnified in ways they’ve never been before.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re built to have Manning at the controls, and he’s been there all the time from the very beginning in 1998 until opening day this season.

There are maybe two teams and markets in the league that would not trade for what the Colts have done since 1999. Twelve consecutive playoff seasons followed by one complete dud? Where do I sign up for that?

Construct questions: That said, regardless of a serious neck surgery to the star quarterback, what exactly was the plan in the secondary? Is an evaluation that leaves Jacob Lacey, Terrence Johnson, Kevin Thomas and Chris Rucker as cornerbacks Nos. 2 through 5 good enough? Absolutely not.

The Colts get credit for adding a couple of outside veterans this season -- linebacker Ernie Sims, and defensive ends Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton. But the drafting has dropped off.

Set aside the most recent class, as it’s too early to judge.

The Colts drafted 41 players from 2005 through 2010. I count one star, safety Antoine Bethea, and two guys who can become stars, linebacker Pat Angerer and receiver Austin Collie (if he’s working with Manning). Running back Joseph Addai is a good fit who does more than people think. And receiver Pierre Garcon and cornerback Jerraud Powers have been pretty solid starters.

Sure, the Colts drafted higher in the five years before. Still, those classes produced five guys who rank among the best players of their generation at their positions: tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, safety Bob Sanders, and receiver Reggie Wayne. The next tier provided steady starters on the offensive line (Jake Scott, Ryan Diem) and at linebacker (David Thornton).

That list is more than a third of a starting team, a big-time core. As those guys age or disappear, I'm not seeing a core in waiting.

Colts president-turned-vice chairman Bill Polian said recently on his radio show that they needed to have done better recently, particularly at defensive tackle and cornerback.

And there is a domino effect to the problem. Find Tarik Glenn’s ultimate replacement at left tackle in 2007, and you don’t need to use your top pick in 2011 on Anthony Castonzo. Hit on Donald Brown in the first round in 2009, and Delone Carter might not be necessary in the fourth round in 2011.

The Polians: Bill Polian has been pulling back and yielding responsibility to his son, GM Chris Polian. (Chris politely declined to be interviewed for this story.)

We don’t yet have much tape on Chris Polian, so to speak. Bill Polian is a good talent evaluator who has had success in three NFL stops and has done well to build a team with which Manning has won. But Bill Polian also has overseen those recent draft drop-offs.

His strong-willed personality is part of what has made him good at his job, and his big-picture assessment of important league issues is as intelligent as anyone’s. He’s got clout and influence that extend beyond Indianapolis.

Stylistically, he’s a stubborn and demanding boss. There are indications from within that, without the steady stream of personnel hits he provided earlier in his tenure, some inside the building are tiring of the way things are run.

Bill Polian recently talked about how Curtis Painter's play vindicates the team for having faith in him, but failed to mention that faith was so strong that the team signed Kerry Collins to a $4 million contract shortly before the season started and handed him the starting job.

I suspect Bill Polian has the backing of owner Jim Irsay for as long as he wants it. That would ensure safety for Chris Polian, too.

Bill Polian made the Manning-over-Ryan Leaf call in 1998. Because of the way Leaf busted, people forget that was a coin flip at the time, that Leaf was regarded as a big-time prospect just as much as Manning was. Polian called it correctly, built a team that’s been to two Super Bowls and won one, got a new stadium built, and greatly enhanced the value of Irsay’s franchise.

Cryptic messages: Further complicating things is Irsay, who clearly gets a kick out of being the center of NFL attention in the Twitter-verse but has undermined some of his people with it.

He announced the team added Collins while coach Jim Caldwell was conducting his daily news conference. It did Caldwell no favors, as he appeared completely out of the loop.

Most recently, following the 62-7 loss in New Orleans on Sunday night, Irsay provided this gem:

“Titanic collapse, apologies 2 all ColtsNation...problems identifiable;solutions in progress but complex in nature/ better days will rise again”

A day later, he added:

"Just because you perceive problems on the horizon,and you possess solutions..doesn't mean they are avoidable and implementation is instant"

Solutions in progress, but complex in nature. That sounds to me like what would be written in big silver letters on the lobby wall of a consulting company on a TV show. Or a clever, but far-too-long name for a band.

It also sounds like change is going to come.

Coaching questions: While Bill Polian recently said that adding Jim Tressel to the staff as a replay consultant was Caldwell’s idea, it’s a weird-looking move that’s made some of us wonder whether a bigger role awaits the former Ohio State coach.

Caldwell does a nice job managing personalities, looking at things philosophically and staying on message. I believe he’s a good teacher, and his patient, quiet style is generally healthy for a team with a good share of veteran stars.

But he has blind spots, too, and is hardly a strategy master. There are bound to be significant changes at the conclusion of what’s sure to be a dreadful season, and he’ll be at the front of the line.

If he does the best job we can remember at holding a terrible, ineffective team together, is that enough? I’d guess not.

Injuries: This team gets hurt too much. There is a huge element of bad luck to it, of course. But is there something bigger at work as well?

Last season as quality players went down, Manning helped some role players such as tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Blair White emerge. This season, guys such as linebacker Gary Brackett and safety Melvin Bullitt were lost for the season early, and there's been a revolving door on the offensive line because of injuries.

The Colts are constantly testing their depth and shuffling the back end of their roster. There is only so much shuffling a depth chart can handle.

I believe they need to attempt some change that might have a positive effect on their overall health -- whether it be adopting new training philosophies, altering how they evaluate prospects or changing personnel philosophies.

It's easy to ask them to figure out why they tend to suffer so many injuries, and it's hard to find an answer. But some sort of shift is due, even as we know it comes with no guarantee of better health.

When the current approach is failing, it's OK to try something else. It's not admitting some sort of failure; it's merely part of a necessary process of evaluating and revising operations.

Suck for Luck: Given a chance to draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, I think the Colts would. Bill Polian can give Chris Polian the guy expected to be the NFL's next great quarterback, and Chris Polian's legacy would be built on a fantastic cornerstone.

But there is no losing on purpose to get in position for Luck. You think Wayne or Mathis is interested in such a master plan?

Said veteran center and team tone-setter Jeff Saturday: “I'll steal a Robert Mathis quote: 'I ain't sucking for anybody.'”