ESPN NFL

1. Houston Texans: Wade Phillips did some great things with this defense a year ago. But he’s not the only member of the Texans’ organization who deserves credit for an incredibly improved defense from 2010 to 2011. Houston’s front office was very aggressive in addressing the defensive side of the ball last offseason. Now, Houston has big-time players at each level of its 3-4 defense.

For those who don’t yet know, J.J. Watt immediately established himself as one of the up-and-coming defensive players in this league. Not only is Watt is a fantastic hustle player, but he has ideal size and length for his 3-4 defensive end position to go with well above-average athletic ability. Watt will be a star. Like Watt, Brian Cushing did everything asked of him really well from his inside linebacker spot last season and has established himself as one of the better second-level defenders in the league.

Before last season, the Texans paid a premium to sign him, but simply put, Johnathan Joseph is one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL today. He is the total package and probably the best player on this excellent defense -- which is really saying something. The Texans could use one more cover man to step up, though. Overall, Houston is well-equipped in coverage and of course the pass rush helped a lot in that capacity.

Maybe what the Texans’ defense did best in Phillips’ first year was rushing the quarterback -- even without Mario Williams for much of the season. The Texans did add Whitney Mercilus to further enhance their threat off the edge and Connor Barwin could be knocking on the door of stardom.

Besides the first-round selection of Mercilus, who is in an ideal position to learn the outside linebacker position slowly, the Texans mostly stuck to improving their offense in the draft. However, Houston did land an intriguing prospect to play behind Watt and the underrated Antonio Smith in late fourth-round pick Jared Crick, who is an ideal fit for this defensive scheme. Only the Steelers, 49ers and Raves allowed fewer points than Houston last year. Don’t expect much of a drop-off this year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The AFC South has a shot to have two top-five defenses in 2012. Mike Malarkey takes over as the Jaguars’ head coach, but his focus will be getting quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s career straightened out and improving a dismal Jacksonville passing game.

The defense will be in Mel Tucker’s hands. Tucker wants a fast-flowing, physical and aggressive defense that doesn’t blitz a lot and gets most of its pressure from the defensive linemen. The Jaguars found a gem in Jeremy Mincey, who’s excelled in all facets of playing defensive end in their 4-3 scheme. But this defense really lacked a complementary end to Mincey, especially as a pass-rusher. Jacksonville used the No. 38 pick in this year’s draft on Andre Branch, who could help immediately on passing downs but offers little against the run.

One guy who let this defense down last season is Tyson Alualu, who really had a down 2011 season in all regards. Still, only three teams bettered Jacksonville in rushing yards allowed per attempt in 2011. A vastly underrated positional group in the NFL is the Jaguars’ linebacker corps, especially Daryl Smith, who does everything well on the second level. Paul Posluszny isn’t much behind Smith and was a fine addition to Jacksonville’s defense in free agency a year ago. The Jags’ secondary lacks star power but it is pretty solid at each position. The Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed last year. They could improve upon that in 2012.

3. Tennessee Titans: There isn’t a lot of star power here, but the Titans are very young on defense and could be poised to improve. Youngsters Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and others are much better players than many casual NFL fans know. Third-round pick Mike Martin should be the perfect complement to the run-stuffing Casey and the lighter pass-rushing Klug in the Titans’ defensive tackle rotation.

The Titans’ pass rush was a huge problem last season, as only Tampa Bay recorded fewer sacks than Tennessee, but it should be much better this year, especially with the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. Former first-round pick Derrick Morgan also should finally be healthy. This is a key season for Morgan -- and the Titans need more from him.

On the second level, the Titans are now very young and active. Colin McCarthy is a tackling machine and should quickly establish himself as a leader of this defense. Tennessee lost Cortland Finnegan to the Rams in free agency, but overall, their coverage people were above average last season -- despite that suspect pass rush. Finnegan had an excellent season, though, and will be difficult to replace.

The Titans look to be improved up front in their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, but not as strong on the back end in coverage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points than Tennessee during the 2011 season. Maintaining that standard could be difficult, but overall, this is a pretty solid group in just about all areas.

4. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts might have the worst defense in the NFL this season. Their run defense was abysmal last season. Indianapolis has nowhere to go but up in this department and additions such as Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney and Josh Chapman should help shore up the run defense at the line of scrimmage. Still, such a drastic scheme change really leaves Indianapolis in a bind on this side of the ball for 2012.

Although the Colts surely will not be playing with the lead as much as they did when Peyton Manning was behind center, the edge pass-rush presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis should still rank among the best in the NFL. Mathis was probably the Colts’ best defensive player last season. He can still get it done. I believe the same is true with Freeney. As good as Freeney and Mathis still are, just the Titans and Buccaneers sacked opposing quarterbacks less than Indianapolis.

Besides Freeney and Mathis, Pat Angerer and especially Antoine Bethea are above-average starters for their respective positions. But outside of these four, the remaining prevalent members of the Colts’ defense are littered with flaws. One player I am very high on is Drake Nevis, but Nevis was drafted to be an upfield disruptive three-technique. The problem here is that if Indianapolis goes with a predominantly 3-4 alignment, Nevis’ great penetrating abilities could be wasted. That is the problem with switching schemes -- players from the former philosophy aren’t well-suited for what the new coaching staff has in mind. This applies to many members of the Colts’ defense, which up until now was a fast-flowing undersized unit built on speed. Now this unit will be building to be much like what Chuck Pagano coached in Baltimore -- and Nevis is one of many examples of the problems with making such a change.

The Colts were not strong at all in coverage last year -- and it doesn’t look as though they will be much improved in 2012. They are particularly weak at cornerback. Indianapolis also had the fewest interceptions in the league last year. Pagano and his defensive staff will be more creative with their looks and pressures, which he hopes will leads to more turnovers created. Getting more Ravens-type of defensive players will be a massive priority for Indianapolis next offseason.

We’re talked a lot about needs for the Colts, beyond quarterback which will be addressed when they draft Andrew Luck first overall: cornerback, safety, nose tackle, tight end, receiver and perhaps an offensive lineman.

We’re expecting Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney to spend most of their time at outside linebacker in a new 3-4 the Colts will be in as often as possible. If so, then some guys who were tackles in the old 4-3 will shift to end in that front. Fili Moala and Drake Nevis would head the list to work with free-agent addition Cory Redding. Nevis was not mentioned by GM Ryan Grigson recently when he talked of free-agent addition Brandon McKinney and holdover Antonio Johnson as the team’s primary answers at nose tackle.

In this scenario, the Colts are quite thin at outside linebacker.

I fully expect Jerry Hughes will get a chance there. The next most notable linebacker names on the roster for a spot that needs a great deal of depth are Kavell Conner and Scott Lutrus. And Conner may be an inside guy.

While Mathis and Freeney will surely be asked to do much of what they’ve done through successful careers as outside backers, the fact remains that there isn’t one proven 3-4 outside linebacker in that group. (And beyond Pat Angerer, there isn’t a guy we know can play inside in a 3-4 either -- though that situational job isn’t as difficult to fill.)

Freeney is also entering the last year of a very expensive contract.

The Colts have 10 picks in the draft, five in the first 136. They’ll need to address linebacker somewhere along the way.

Our chat suffered a technical interruption Thursday. Thought we still go a lot of good stuff in, I’ll pay back an extra 15 minutes sometime soon.

If you were there at the right time, you still got quality stuff like this:

Kyle (Ottawa, Ontario)

What do you do if your Jacksonville? Sign Vincent Jackson and draft Melvin Ingram or sign Mario Williams and draft Kendall Wright/Michael Floyd?

Paul Kuharsky

I LOVE Vincent Jackson. But if you can get Mario Williams, I think you have to go that direction. Very good question. You have the lead.

2ToneBlueBlood (murfreesboro tn)

I've seen you mention a few times that you think the Titans should pursue [Robert] Mathis or [Dwight] Freeney. Chances you think it will actually happen?

Paul Kuharsky

Freeney is under contract. If he's released they'd have to look. And they have to look at Mathis. They know they need a guy with special rush skills and that there are few of them. But if someone is giving them crazy money, it probably won't be Tennessee.

Awayne (Indy)

Colts go 3-4 what do you do with [Drake] Nevis, good potential but doesn't fit in 3-4 probably doesn't have much trade value?

Paul Kuharsky

Which is why it's a gradual shift, not a one-year overhaul.

Tyler (Duval)

Your thoughts on Gene Smith saying the Jags won't be as active in free agency this year as we were last year. Kind of upset me. I understand building through the draft but free agency is a very nice tool you can use.

Paul Kuharsky

Don't like it. Hope it's not a set up for a reveal that [new Jaguars owner Shahid] Khan won't spend all that money. Two big guys and a draft, that'd be fine.

Richard (Knoxville)

You can revoke a franchise tag up until July 15.

Paul Kuharsky

Not if he signs it.

For all that and much, much more, move directly past go and click right here.

Mel Kiper hass gone back and reconsidered the grades he gave each NFL team after the 2011 draft, regrading after seeing everyone’s rookie season.

A look at his take on the teams of the AFC South:

Colts

Then: B-

Now: C+

Kiper: “[Anthony] Castonzo hasn't been spectacular, but at least he has made it to the left side and looks like the future there. What can he be? Well, if he does a good job of protecting Andrew Luck, the grade certainly will get a bump. But we don't know yet. Ben Ijalana hasn't shown a lot. Drake Nevis has had moments but mostly got good reps for a bad defense.”

Kuharsky: It’s also important to note what they didn’t draft: sufficient help for the secondary.

Jaguars

Then: C-

Now: D

Kiper: “Suffice to say, I don't think throwing [Blaine] Gabbert in there with a lack of legit passing targets given his developmental needs was a great idea. I still think Gabbert has a shot because he has a lot of good physical tools and can be very accurate, but I hope the experience of this season is something he grows from and isn't a developmental setback. Elsewhere, there isn't much.”

Kuharsky: Guard Will Rackley was not great. The Jaguars’ big additions were in free agency, not through the draft. This draft’s grade will always hang on Gabbert.

Titans

Then: C

Now: B

Kiper: "The Titans got some really good early returns and value. Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug, picked in the third and fifth rounds, respectively, have been very good (Klug really got after quarterbacks), and so has Akeem Ayers, which wasn't much of a surprise. It's hard to up the grade too much until we know whether Locker is indeed the future, but a year out, it looks like the Titans planned and scouted well overall."

Kuharsky: Considering we haven’t seen Jake Locker, the top pick, start a game yet, it’s hard to get much more out of a rookie class than the Titans did.

Texans

Then: B

Now: A-

Kiper: "If you consider that Houston got 11 sacks out of a combo of [Mario] Williams and [Brooks] Reed, the injury to Super Mario doesn't seem so terrible. Of course, the big steal here was to find T.J. Yates in the fifth round after he wasn't even invited to the combine."

Kuharsky: J.J. Watt proved the most impactful pick in the entire division and this class had a big hand in reshaping the Houston defense.

John Lloyd from Yulee, Fla., writes: I count 24 players on jag IR. How did you get 27?

Paul Kuharsky: They placed a couple on IR that they eventually reached a settlement with. That means they can release those players while they're still injured. So they disappeared from the roster. But their seasons ended when they were put on IR.

---

Jason from Philadelphia writes: You get 10 Colts players to keep next year, who are they? Top 5 in order, 6-10 doesn't have to be. Manning doesn't count. Freeney Mathis Castonzo Bethea Nevis Angerer Ijalana Wayne Clark Collie. Picked the tackles and Nevis because they are new draft picks and have shown promise when healthy. I've always stayed positive but that list was harder than I thought it would be. The talent level has really dropped off. I almost put McAfee in there.

Paul Kuharsky: OK, Manning doesn’t count and I am really concentrating on having the best team I can next year. I’ve changed this a bit from when I emailed you back.

I’d go: Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pat Angerer, Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana, Drake Nevis and Jerraud Powers. Donald Brown just missed. I think he can actually run and will get out of the doghouse if there is a new regime. I think Dallas Clark's injuries are starting to mount and I don’t know if you can expect anything close to a full season from him.

---

Jimmy Bagley from Philly, Pa., writes: Looking at your rankings, I am trying to figure out why you have Houston so low.... Why wouldn't they be at the number 4 spot? Green Bay, obviously number one with a bullet. Baltimore, number two ok. N.O. should be 3 and the Texans at 4... At this point in the season, why aren't the tie breakers used to figure these in.... Houston holds the tie breaker over both Pit and NE.... They were the first team in the AFC to clinch, and have the best divisional record of all the teams.... Not to mention the number 2 defense in the league and a top 3 running game.... They have managed to win in all types of circumstances.... After last week’s come from behind win I thought for sure it would win over critics waiting for them to choke... What else is going to take for the respect to come in.

Paul Kuharsky: What you are looking for, apparently, is the official playoff order for the league right now. (If we do that, what’s the point?) What the power rankings are looking for is my opinion on where teams stand. The official playoff rankings of the moment don’t take into account a third-string quarterback as the starter. No matter how impressive T.J. Yates has been, we have a very small sample size so far. And I have a tough time ranking a team he’s leading ahead of one led by Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, who’ve won Super Bowls. The one case you can make is that the Texans should be ahead of Pittsburgh based on having beaten them. But the Steelers are a much better team now than they were then.

Also you suggest I should rank the Texans higher because they clinched earlier and have a better division record. So they get a reward for the Colts and Jaguars stinking and the Titans being average?

I have Houston sixth. I think we differ on whether that’s good or bad. I think it’s quite good.

I am continually amazed by how people regard the issue of respect. I think, universally, analysts are impressed by what the Texans have done and think they are a very good team. Apparently some of you think we should be holding parades for them and telecasting half-hour specials about their greatness.

---

Scott Freistat from Hermitage, Tenn., writes: ESPN's latest ranking poll states that if the playoffs were to start today (12/13) the Texans would have the No. 1 seed. How is that possible considering they have the same records as the Ravens (10-3) and the Ravens own the head-to-head matchup? Please explain.

Paul Kuharsky: In a three-way tie, head-to-head results aren’t the top tiebreaker because it does nothing to factor in the third team. The Ravens win a tiebreaker over the Steelers being from same division. Then it’s Texans-Ravens-Patriots. If one team has swept the other two, it wins a tiebreaker. If not, then it’s conference record. The Texans win that right now.

---

Brian Vining from Douglas, Ga., writes: Who is Matt Williamson? So I guess this so called expert wants to give up on a first round QB who has no weapons except for Maurice jones-Drew. Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year. He is a young QB who needs time to develop. With a good coach and a couple of WR who can catch the ball Gabbert will be great. I'm not saying the Jags is the best out of the three but if I were a coach and could go to a team with a young up and coming QB. A great RB in MJD and a much improved defense I would jump on it. That's not even to mention Gene Smith who has the right philosophy to build a team who can contend for years. National media at it again. Gabbert sucks, the Jags can't fill the stadium, Jags are moving to LA. Maybe if some of them would actually do a little homework they would know none of this is true.

Paul Kuharsky: Williamson is a former NFL scout who knows as much about current personnel as anyone in my business.

Your logic falls apart here: “Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year.” Then why is he the starter this year? Nothing catostrophic happened. The team chose to cut David Garrard and it chose to bench Luke McCown. Those moves made Gabbert the starter. If you don’t want him starting, arrange for him not to start. I don’t know how we can say he was not supposed to start and offer amnesty based on that. They are starting him. As promising as Gabbert may be, it’s not at all inaccurate to say he’s been horrible this season.

I like Smith, but the rebuild is not moving at a fast enough pace. His philosophy starts with foundation-building and two good lines. Three years in, I don’t see two good lines, do you? And where is anything close to a late-round home run?

---

Mike M. from Houston writes: The next man up approach only works if the next man up has talent. The Texans have shown that they have talent beyond the 22 starters on the roster. Most have been draft picks, UDFA's, or were low level free agents when acquired (like Kevin Walter or Jason Allen). Does this make Rick Smith the front runner for executive of the year???

Paul Kuharsky: That’s an excellent point, that the next man up has to be equipped to do the job. Lots of teams without good depth get hurt and fall apart.

But let’s not make it like Rick Smith is at the powerful end of the spectrum of GMs in terms of decision-making. It’s a joint operation and he’s not bringing in anyone Gary Kubiak doesn’t sign off on. Wade Phillips had great influence on what they did in the draft and then free agency as well.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

The Texans looked to bolster the roster, adding quarterback Jeff Garcia and punter Matt Turk, says Jeffrey Martin of the Houston Chronicle.

With their run game and defense, the Texans are built to excel at crunch time, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

Archie Manning doesn’t believe the Colts having both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck on the roster would make sense, says Mike Chappell.

Tuesday’s roster moves included putting rookie defensive tackle Drake Nevis on injured reserve, says Phillip B. Wilson.

The Colts’ magic number for clinching the No. 1 pick is three, says Phil Richards.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Shahid Khan is one step closer to owning the Jaguars, reports Vito Stellino of the Times-Union.

Mark Woods of the T-U chronicles his night as a water boy for the Jaguars.

The NFL rushing title wouldn’t mean much to Maurice Jones-Drew says Tania Ganguli.

The Jaguars should not take another quarterback in the draft, says Adam Stites of Big Cat Country.

Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson is running like the back we’ve seen in the past and has more than 40 percent of his yards for the season in the last two games, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

The Titans got approval for LP Field improvements that will be in place for the 2012 season, says Michael Cass of The Tennessean.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 10

Scoring defense: The Colts have allowed at least 23 points in all nine of their games this season. If they give up 23 to the Jaguars, they will become the third team in the last 30 seasons to allow at least 23 points in their first 10 games of a season -- joining the 2010 Texans (10) and 1981 Baltimore Colts (15). The Jaguars are probably prime candidates not to get to 23. Jacksonville is averaging just more than 12 points a game.

Determined to run: The Texans' run game is their foundation this season. They lead the NFL in attempts per game at 34.8 and are second in rushing yards per game at 155.1. Arian Foster has not only been a dominant force in the backfield, he’s also picked up the slack as a receiver in the absence of Andre Johnson with a league-best 285 yards after the catch since Week 5. Matt Schaub has not been putting up big numbers, which is fine because the offense is doing so well with him handing off more than dropping back.

Contain Cam: The Titans just lost to rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Now they see a different style of rookie quarterback in Cam Newton. He’s big and strong and can run effectively, but he’s also done a nice job of being a throw-first quarterback. The Titans have not blitzed a lot, and the tendency against young quarterbacks is to try to confuse them with coverage. With a young quarterback who’s hard to bring down, that may be even more the case. But the Titans would be wise to throw some new blitzes into the mix. An interesting contrast -- Newton has the most completions in the league (24) on throws of more than 20 yards in the air this season, and the Titans have allowed the fewest such completions (five).

Between the tackles: Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew has the most rushing yards in the league running between the tackles. His 457 yards give him a giant lead over Adrian Peterson (335). MJD has eight rushing touchdowns in 10 career games against the Colts. Indianapolis rookie defensive tackle Drake Nevis could be ready to return from a back injury, and the Colts should get a boost from him if he’s on the field.

Tampa Bay’s play-action: The Texans have intercepted the most passes (five) and allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.0) on play-action passes this season. That tells me guys have been disciplined about not biting on fakes. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown the most interceptions (five) on play fakes this season. So this could be a nice match for Houston in that department. The pass rush could be limited, though, because the Buccaneers have protected Freeman rather well.

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

The Texans released Steve Slaton, writes John McClain. In Sunday's 40-33 loss at New Orleans, he carried four times for 8 yards and showed little quickness when trying to make the cuts that are so essential to the Texans' running game.

My take: He has never really been the same since suffering a neck injury in his second season. It’s amazing how quickly things evolve. He went from being one of the most productive, quick backs in the league in 2008 to being fifth among Houston backs in 2011.

Indianapolis Colts

Nate Dunlevy says Pat Angerer and Drake Nevis were every bit as good as advertised. "Anyone saying the Colts are bereft of young talent from the draft either has an agenda or hasn't been paying attention. Both players are every bit as good as anyone Indy has had at linebacker and DT in the past 10 years. This defense hits and hits hard. It was the hardest hitting I've seen from an Indy D since '96."

My take: They’re both good players, for sure. But imagine if they were playing with a home run first-rounder from 2010 instead of Jerry Hughes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jack Del Rio is the only person of note with the Jaguars who’s under contract beyond this season, says Pete Prisco. It’s a surprise that GM Gene Smith and his people are in the final year of their deals. “If Smith is going to remain in charge with building this team into a contender, he needs more job security. If he isn't, then is begs this question: Is Weaver ready to turn to a coach/general manager type?”

My take: Who knows what Wayne Weaver is thinking? I understand it’s hard to provide job security to people when you don’t know if your team is really heading in the right direction. Guys need to set aside the air of uncertainty and do work that demands new deals.

Tennessee Titans

Not quite the sort of statistical news Chris Johnson is trying to make: “According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the only other player in NFL history to have that low a yards-per-carry [2.1] through his first three games of a season -- coming off even two-or-more consecutive 1,000-yard seasons -- was the Bengals’ Corey Dillon in 2000.” The blog post from ESPN Stats and Info.

My take: As much as the Titans have to be encouraged about, if they can’t figure out what’s up with Johnson and get him going, they’re ultimately doomed.

Ten questions worth pondering about the Colts without Peyton Manning:

1. Who’s under the most pressure?

The obvious answer is Kerry Collins, but if the expectations are unreasonable for the 39-year-old quarterback, that’s not on him. He can still be effective, but consistency is an issue and he tends to start games slowly. That’s a problem for the Colts, who are built to jump to leads and let defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis pursue quarterbacks who are trying to throw to catch up. Those successful two-minute drills that Manning has run at the end of a half or a game won't happen as often with Collins.

2. What will we learn about Colts head coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen?

Jokes about Manning coaching the team tend to be over the top. But he certainly makes more pre-snap decisions on the field than any other quarterback in the league. Even if Collins winds up making some of those reads and determinations, Caldwell and Christensen must show they can plan effectively for him in a way they weren’t always responsible for with Manning at the controls.

3. Is the line ready to play better?

A lot of people not that familiar with how the Colts play look at the sack numbers (16 allowed in 2010) and judge Indianapolis to be one of the league’s best pass-protecting offensive lines. It’s not. The Colts spent their top two draft picks on offensive linemen Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana. Castonzo is slated to start at left tackle, and left guard Joe Reitz has not played in an NFL regular-season game. Ryan Diem appears to be moving from right tackle to right guard as Jeff Linkenbach, undrafted last year, takes Diem’s long-time spot. Collectively, the group must offer Collins reliable protection and block more effectively for a running game that must do more.

4. How does Collins handle blitzes and pass pressure?

Teams typically paid for blitzing Manning, but defenses will certainly try to do more to get to Collins. He didn’t move well when he was younger, and it’s certainly not a big piece of his game now. He’s not afraid to throw it away and live for another day. And former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher, who coached Collins the past five years in Tennessee and game-planned against the Colts twice a year from 2002 through 2010, said Indianapolis will be equipped to counter extra blitz pressure with screens to Joseph Addai.

5. Who has a chance to shine?

Even if Manning were around, I expected the Colts to try to get the ball to rookie running back Delone Carter in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He’s different than fellow running backs Addai and Donald Brown and seems like a player who can find a tough yard even when things don’t get blocked as they should. That offensive line can get a lot of attention if it plays well. And Brody Eldridge, more of a blocking tight end, could see more time if the Colts feel like they must sacrifice three-wide sets for additional protection or run-game help.

6. Can the defense help more?

As we mentioned, it’s a team built to pass rush against an offense that must throw. The Colts have not been a good run-stopping team and the defense didn’t fare well at it in the preseason. Indianapolis is slated to face a bunch of top-level backs. We could see two veteran additions at end, Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton, get chances to contribute on run downs and help keep Freeney and Mathis fresher to rush. Rookie tackle Drake Nevis can help too. Overall, the philosophy of limiting big plays and making teams move it a little at a time has worked well enough. It’s not like they can make a dramatic change in it now.

7. What about special teams?

It’s been a neglected area for much of the Manning era. The offense is good at driving the ball down the field and doesn’t often get a good return to set up field position. While Manning makes big dollars, so do the team’s other stars: Freeney, Mathis, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea. Dedicating a lot of pay to that core means the team doesn’t have a lot of veteran backups, and veteran backups make up the backbone of good special teams units. This also is an area where things can’t really be changed because they are dictated by personnel.

8. What if Collins goes down?

Curtis Painter, a sixth-round draft pick from Purdue in 2009, is the third quarterback. The team is very defensive about him, but it’s an organization that works very hard to defend draft picks. But the fact is, in his limited regular-season action and in the preseason, Painter has been ineffective. If the Colts lost their backup quarterback and had to turn to Painter, they’d be in giant trouble. I can’t see Indianapolis going after another veteran now. David Garrard, released by the Jaguars this week, should find a job better than what the Colts might have to offer. I don’t see Indy being interested in him anyway.

9. Will the offense slow down?

As experienced and as wily as Collins may be, it’s difficult to imagine him being able to play at Manning’s pace, snapping the ball to catch defenses with too many men on the field or flapping his arms while changing, or pretending to change, what’s about to unfold. The Colts, however, benefit from locking defenses into personnel groupings. If Indy doesn’t huddle or take the time to substitute, the opponent can’t either. Whether they can, or want to try to, maintain that as an advantage remains to be seen. If they huddle more, they allow defenses to adjust more, too.

10. If the season is a total bomb, would they want Stanford QB Andrew Luck in the draft?

The deal Manning just signed is for five years. But if Indianapolis vice chairman Bill Polian had a chance at a guy who’s regarded as the best college quarterback to come out since, perhaps, Manning, I don’t see how the Colts wouldn’t take him and let him learn under Manning. But a four-year wait for Luck to play couldn’t happen either, and the Colts would have to craft a long-term plan.

Check here for a complete list of the Indianapolis Colts' roster moves.

Surprise moves: Tommie Harris seemed to play well enough to stick, but the former first-round defensive tackle apparently wanted to be treated like the team’s top defensive linemen and the team didn’t like the attitude. Defensive end John Chick had solid games but couldn’t get past Jerry Hughes. Undrafted rookie tight end Mike McNeill made it, as did four others who were not April selections: running backs Darren Evans and Chad Spann, linebacker Adrian Moten and safety Joe Lefeged.

No-brainers: Veteran additions on defense made good impressions in the preseason and are sticking around -- ends Jamaal Anderson and Tyler Brayton and linebacker Ernie Sims. Anthony Gonzalez may be injury prone, but none of the other options at receiver is a better player.

What’s next: They’ve got only four defensive tackles in Fili Moala, Antonio Johnson, Eric Foster and Drake Nevis. It could be a spot where they look to add or upgrade on Foster. Offensive linemen Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard will have to prove they deserved to stick ahead of Kyle DeVan.

One big question I see about each team in the division right now ...

Houston Texans

How will Gary Kubiak deploy the running backs behind Arian Foster? Even if he’s ready to go for the opener against the Colts, it might be prudent to limit his carries a bit. Will they go to Derrick Ward or Ben Tate? There is a lot of enthusiasm about Tate right now, and he ran great in games. But Ward is a good option, too, and certainly better equipped to chip in on pass protection against a team like Indianapolis.

Indianapolis Colts

Are they going to be able to stop top running backs? Brian Leonard had a pretty good first half for the Bengals, and he’s pretty much Cincinnati’s third string option. Foster, Ward or Tate should be better. Will the Colts start slow in run defense like they did last year, or are they better equipped? Has enough changed personnel wise from opening day last year with guys like Drake Nevis and Jamaal Anderson contributing?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Why did left tackle Eugene Monroe lose so much weight? Former Jaguars offensive lineman Tony Boselli was part of the broadcast of the Jaguars’ loss to the Rams and he said Monroe had been as low as under 280 during the offseason. While he’s on his way back up, what was the logic of getting that light? I suspect that’s not something that would have happened if there had been no lockout and he’d been working with the team in the offseason.

Tennessee Titans

How do the Titans tend to hamstrings? Look, there is only so much they can do. But Kenny Britt missed three of four games and a ton of practices because of a hamstring issue. And Chris Johnson will just be joining the team today after a long holdout. Guys who miss camp often return and wind up with a pulled muscle. Whatever magic the strength and training staff can work needs to go into effect.

Five of us asked to pick the AFC South still have the Colts winning the division.

While Peyton Manning is the big story and his status can change things, once he’s back he will be surrounded by a team that has a lot of key pieces back and healthy. Don't fool yourself. This will be a very talented team.

Here’s my intelligence report on Indianapolis. You can find it along with the predictions, a draft element from Mel Kiper and a look inside the number from ESPN Stats & Information here.

Intelligence Report

Five things you need to know about the Colts:

1. Quarterback uncertainty: A lot of people are saying Peyton Manning will start the opener, no matter what. Really? No matter whether doctors advise against it? I don't think so. He's driven, for sure, but he's not putting himself at medical risk. I expect we may not know his status until 90 minutes before the Sept. 11 game in Houston kicks off. In the meantime, late addition Kerry Collins provides an upgrade at backup. He needs better protection and a better run game than Manning's been getting in recent years to have a chance at success.

2. Stopping the run is key: The Colts failed to stop Arian Foster in the opener a year ago. They'll face the same challenge at Reliant Stadium on Sept. 11, followed by Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall, LeGarrette Blount and Jamaal Charles. Is the front good enough to stop those types of runners? It needs to be, especially if the offense isn't primed to run out to the sort of leads that prompt opponents to stop running it. Additions like Drake Nevis, Jamaal Anderson and Tommie Harris may help the front be better overall.

3. Special teams, with benefits: The new kickoff rule won't make kickoffs obsolete the way many doomsayers are predicting, but it certainly will make them less important. This is a great thing for the Colts, who regularly underachieve on special teams. Pat McAfee will bury a high percentage of kickoffs in the end zone and the team's lack of a consistent return man won't matter as much. When Manning is in place, the offense will happily take the ball at the 20-yard line at the start of most drives in exchange for not suffering as it did on Antonio Cromartie's big return late in the playoff loss to the Jets. McAfee's used that big leg to become adequate at long-range field goals. Once they are out of Adam Vinatieri's range, they could try the punter in desperate situations.

4. Depth a concern: Indianapolis has unproven depth at both safety and corner, and injuries akin to last year's could really leave the Colts exposed. They let Kelvin Hayden go in a salary-cutting move. That leaves them with Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey and Justin Tryon as their top-three corners, with untested Kevin Thomas fourth. They re-signed Melvin Bullitt to play safety alongside Antoine Bethea, but all the options behind them are young and haven't done much. It could be an issue.

5. Short-yardage offense: Joseph Addai can be effective in all situations, but he'd likely benefit and be fresher later in the season if he played fewer snaps. When the Colts are moving the ball, they go no-huddle and trap opponents in personnel packages, unable to substitute. The thing is, they are also unable to substitute. The Colts might do well to pause a bit more often to get rookie Delone Carter on the field to give them their best cracks on third-and-short and near the goal line.

ANDERSON, Ind. – A first look at the Colts’ first unofficial depth chart gives us some nuggets to consider:

• Jacques McClendon is the starting left guard over Joe Reitz, though they’ve practiced in the other order.
• The base offense is three wide, with Austin Collie in what’s technically the H-back spot.
• Tommie Harris is fifth at left defensive tackle, a spot he’ll surely move up from.
• Rookie Drake Nevis is the No. 2 left defensive tackle behind Fili Moala.
• Eric Foster is the No. 2 right defensive tackle behind Antonio Johnson.
• Undrafted rookie Joe Lefeged is backing up Melvin Bullitt at strong safety.
• Al Afalava is backing up Antoine Bethea at free safety.
• Devin Moore is the punt returner.
• Undrafted David Gilreath is the punt returner.

ANDERSON, Ind. -- Some quick, initial impressions from the first practice of Colts training camp I watched…

• Joe Reitz, who’s listed as a tackle, continues to work at left guard ahead of Jacques McClendon. He lined up with left tackle Jeff Linkenbach, center Jeff Saturday, right guard Mike Pollak and right tackle Ryan Diem to form the starting O-line.
• Justin Tryon ranks as the third corner right now, but count me among those who think he could wind up second. I watched him encourage and advise undrafted rookie Terrence Johnson during one-on-ones about being patient working against receiver Taj Smith. Good stuff.
• “Saturday,” a fan screamed and the center raised his fist before the rest of the line was delivered. “Thank you for the season.” He should hear that a lot based on his giant role in the CBA negotiations.
• It can't be a fun job to be the guy who holds up a three-ring pack of laminated sheets with the right package or play name on it to the camera before each play. But the coaches need to have some stuff labeled as “Alcatraz” of “Queso” when they review and look for landmarks of the sets.
• With Dwight Freeney out for the morning, the first-unit defensive line was, left to right, Jamaal Anderson, Fili Moala, Antonio Johnson and Robert Mathis.
• Special teams worked on punting out of the back of the end zone and the block team did well to get to one off of Pat McAfee’s foot. Special-teams coach Ray Rychleski didn’t care for close-but-no-cigar on another snap. Well, not even close, apparently. “Don’t go near the guy,"' he barked at one rusher. “You’re not even close. Block it or don’t go near him.” The broader point: Roughing the punter penalties kill.
• Watched some one-on-one pass rush and saw Tommie Harris win snaps against McClendon and Reitz. Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana looked good to me. Drake Nevis and Jerry Hughes didn’t have a great period from what I could tell.
• Linebacker Ernie Sims is out two weeks after an appendectomy, according to Jim Caldwell.

Football Outsiders newest gold nuggets come in an evaluation of Stop Rates:

"Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down.

"Obviously, Stop Rate isn't a perfect stat. It measures the plays that a player makes, not the plays he misses or the plays he doesn't even get a chance to miss because he is being properly blocked away from the ballcarrier. Still, it gives you a good idea of where players were making their plays and thus why certain defenses were good or bad at certain parts of the game in 2010."

Let's break out the AFC South.

Linebackers

Among linebackers, Tennessee’s Will Witherspoon ranked 10th with a 79 percent rate and Indianapolis’ Kavell Conner was 12th at 77 percent.

On the other end of the scale: Houston’s Zach Diles was second-worst at 46 percent, Tennessee’s Gerald McRath was at 50 percent and Indianapolis’ Pat Angerer was 12th at 55 percent.

I’m surprised that Witherspoon was so effective and I think that production bodes well for his immediate future. I knew McRath would be bad -- he was nowhere near the playmaker the Titans advertised.

I thought Conner and Angerer made nice contributions for the Colts as rookies, and I would not have predicted either would be on the far end of the scale here.

Diles isn’t going to be on the field in Houston’s new defense very often.

Defensive linemen

Houston’s Antonio Smith tied for eighth at 87 percent.

Three guys from the AFC South rated among the worst: Indianapolis’ Dan Muir is second-worst at 54 percent, Houston’s Amobi Okoye fifth-worst at 64 percent and Indianapolis’ Robert Mathis eighth-worst at 66 percent.

Muir could be replaced by third-rounder Drake Nevis. Mathis, once regarded as exclusively a pass rusher, has improved as a run stopper, but this is a disappointing number. Okoye’s status in a 3-4 remains to be seen and many are speculating he won’t be on the final roster.

Defensive backs

No players from the AFC South made the top 12 or bottom 12 in the category.