AFC South: Drayton Florence
That’s before they added Aaron Kampman and Kassim Osgood in free agents since March 5, of course.
But by Stuart’s calculations using numbers at his pro-football-reference.com site, the Jaguars got 82 percent of their “approximate value” from players it drafted. But, he wisely points out: “Nearly all of the big contributors for Jacksonville came via the draft, which may have more to do with the team’s fiscal operations than its ability to scout players.”
Well, the Jags had spent, they just spent on guys like Drayton Florence and Jerry Porter who busted for them. But they do want to be draft-centric and their 2009 class, the first by GM Gene Smith, proved a major boon for the franchise in its first year. Many of us expect that to start to turn into a trend come April.
Indy is sixth on the list at 70.1 percent, Tennessee 11th (61.9 percent), Houston 14th (60.9).
It’s an interesting read I recommend.
Further review: VY's first-down run
The situation: Third-and-10 from the Buffalo 13-yard line with 12:20 left in the fourth quarter and the score tied, 17-17.
The Titans line up with Nate Washington and Bo Scaife to the left, Kenny Britt and Lavelle Hawkins to the right and Chris Johnson to the left of Vince Young, who’s in shotgun.
Buffalo matches up with its nickel package with Ellis Lankster, Reggie Corner, George Wilson, Drayton Florence and Bryan Scott on the field.
They rush with just their four down linemen.
What I saw unfold after the snap: Johnson heads left and cuts toward the end zone with Scott picking him up.
Jake Scott and Kevin Mawae double team Marcus Stroud and hold him up.
Eugene Amano single blocks John McCargo, who uses a spin move and winds up tugging Amano’s facemask.
Michael Roos pushes Aaron Schobel wide and David Stewart does the same with Chris Kelsay. But the two defensive ends begin to squeeze the back end of the pocket, and Young senses it early and sees room.
Young peers downfield as he scoots up in the pocket, but passes on throwing to Britt, who’s crossed from the right to the middle and is open but only two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Paul Posluszny charges up the middle, but quickly loses any advantage in tracking Young as the quarterback slides to his right, gets to full speed and turns the corner to go up the right sideline for the pylon. He starts to lunge and reach for the pylon with the ball at about the 3-yard line with the defender on his left and diving for his legs. Field judge Keith Washington immediately signals that Young didn’t make it into the end zone marking him just short.
Young gets up and signals touchdown. Jeff Fisher challenges, but only because he was calling a timeout anyway to adjust personnel. Referee John Parry upholds the call.
Result: First-and-goal from 1. Johnson scored three plays later, bouncing off a hit behind the line of scrimmage by Scott and Posluszny and heading into the end zone standing from there and Tennessee moves to a 24-17 lead.
Ultimate outcome: The Titans pour it on from there, turning a close game into a 41-17 blowout for their third win in a row.
Here's some interesting info 
on cap hits and dead money from Football Outsiders. You have to be an Insider to see the whole report. But I got top secret clearance to share a bit.
The Texans' biggest cap number belongs to Matt Schaub ($10.25 million, 8 percent of their cap) and the most dead money is tied up in Anthony Weaver ($5.4 million, 4.2 percent).
My thoughts: Having Schaub in that slot is fine, and he's a guy that has to produce for them to succeed. Dead money is an interesting way to judge a team's failures, and Weaver's is a big number when you consider they've also made two sizable investments in their efforts to replace him -- signing free agent Antonio Smith and drafting Connor Barwin.
The Colts' biggest cap number belongs to Peyton Manning ($21.2+ million, 16.5 percent of the cap) and the most dead money is tied up in Marvin Harrison ($6.4 million, 5 percent of the cap).
My thoughts: No surprise with Manning, thought it's hard not to wonder what the Colts might be able to do if they could shrink that number. The Harrison decision was the tough kind where a team chooses to move on, parting ways with a guy who helped get it to new heights but had tailed off. Getting him off the books will pay off starting next year.
The Jaguars' biggest cap number belongs to David Garrard ($9 million, 6.6 percent of the cap) and the most dead money is a three-way tie between Jerry Porter, Drayton Florence and Paul Spicer ($2.5 million each, 1.8 percent of the cap each, 5.4 percent total.)
My thoughts: This is a big prove-it year for Garrard -- he either establishes himself as the guy or the Jaguars are forced to tacitly concede the big contract was a mistake and begin to look for a quarterback. The Porter and Florence hits show the damage bad signings can do, and the Spicer hit is a warning about loyalty to older guys.
The Titans' biggest cap his is Keith Bulluck ($9.1+ million, 6.8 percent of the cap) and the most dead money is tied up in Antonio Johnson ($86,726, 0.1 percent of cap).
My thoughts: Bulluck is in a contract year, but his agent has said he's been fairly paid on this contract and he's right. The dead money figure for Johnson, now with the Colts, is ridiculously low -- accounting for the 84th biggest total on the team right now. (The roster will ultimately only include 53 players.) In previous years, though, this franchise had huge numbers in the dead money column. This is great evidence of lessons learned.
The Jaguars are looking to trade receiver Dennis Northcutt.
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| Steve Mitchell/US Presswire | |
| Dennis Northcutt appears to be the latest veteran on the way out in Jacksonville. |
This suggests that after getting some time with Torry Holt and assessing Mike Walker and the three receivers the team drafted, the Jaguars are perfectly comfortable moving forward without players who accounted for 44 percent of their receptions last year.
Northcutt was the team's best receiver at the end of last season. With Matt Jones (since cut) suspended, Northcutt caught five balls for 127 yards and a touchdown in a win over Green Bay on Dec. 14 and eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown in a Dec. 18 loss to Indianapolis.
But a team that's already let Jones go and showed no interest in retaining free agent Reggie Williams is looking to continue housecleaning.
Under first-year GM Gene Smith, they've cut running back Fred Taylor, Jones, defensive end Paul Spicer, cornerback Drayton Florence, receiver Jerry Porter, tight end George Wrighster and backup quarterback Cleo Lemon. The team didn't attempt to re-sign free agents Williams, safety Gerald Sensabaugh and tackle Khalif Barnes. They also traded defensive tackle Tony McDaniel.
Moving Northcutt would be yet another step in the housecleaning.
They're clearly ready to get Walker on the field with Holt and allow fourth-rounder Mike Thomas, fifth-rounder Jarett Dillard and seventh-rounder Tiquan Underwood to battle it out for the third spot and fill out the depth.
Northcutt, 31, is a savvy player who can still help someone. But revealing they are looking to trade him could prompt an interested team to wait and see if he isn't ultimately released.
What Jaguars starter would you like replaced?
It's been a while since I asked a question and sorted through your feedback, so here's a new round of that.
What Jacksonville Jaguars incumbent starter would you most like to see replaced?
This is a little tricky for the Jaguars: Four players who were starters on the season-ending depth chart are gone -- receiver Reggie Williams, left tackle Khalif Barnes, cornerback Drayton Florence and middle linebacker Mike Peterson (who regained his job because of an injury to Daryl Smith).
Let's steer clear of them. I want to know who's scheduled to start that you'd like to see upgraded. I suspect some of you will point to Rob Meier, probably better in a reduced role, or maybe right tackle Tony Pashos, who hardly got rave reviews from pro scouts last season.
It will be interesting to see what you have to say here in the comments or in my mailbag.
I will read all of it and revisit this soon.
As Jaguars retool, an emphasis on leadership
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| Courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars/Icon SMI | |
| Jaguars GM Gene Smith and coach Jack Del Rio are placing a larger emphasize on building team chemistry and this season. |
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
To any Jacksonville Jaguar who might have been a bit reserved in 2008, who deferred to leaders like Fred Taylor and Mike Peterson, who thought it better to fit in and follow than to try to help set a tone, general manager Gene Smith and coach Jack Del Rio have a message:
Step forward.
"When you look at things with a league with great parity, I do think team chemistry is a direct factor, a big reason why some teams win at a higher level than other teams," Smith said. "I am a firm believer, and I say this all the time, that good players that play great together win championships.
"In order to play together you've got to have people that are unselfish, that are very disciplined, that put team first and where you have great peer leadership. That's where you develop that core team chemistry that enables you to succeed at a higher level."
Smith has been with the organization since 1994 and was elevated to GM after the 2008 season, taking over for vice president of player personnel James "Shack" Harris, who had resigned. With the new post came more power than Harris had -- Smith has control of all personnel decisions. As the Jaguars headed into the 2009 season and Smith sorted through the roster he inherited, the team appeared to believe in addition by subtraction:
- It let several free agents go without any effort to retain them: Peterson, a linebacker, landed in Atlanta; safety Gerald Sensabaugh in Dallas; left tackle Khalif Barnes in Oakland and Pierson Prioleau in New Orleans. Receiver Reggie Williams is unsigned.
- It dumped players considered to be mistakes who didn't produce or got in trouble: Receivers Jerry Porter and Matt Jones and cornerback Drayton Florence.
- It parted ways with some older guys who were looked to as leaders and spokesmen: Taylor (now a Patriots running back) and defensive end Paul Spicer (now with the Saints).
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| Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images | |
| Mike Peterson is gone from Jacksonville after clashing with coach Jack Del Rio last season. |
Peterson's relationship with Del Rio soured and came to a head after a well-publicized incident last year in which Peterson chafed over criticism from his coach. It was not a good development in a locker room that was already decimated by injuries, filled with underperformers and fracturing because of how some guys who'd been paid (like Porter and Florence) or wanted to be paid (like Peterson and Williams) were acting or being treated.
"The leaders, the veterans of the team, the true guys that were part of the team last year and will be part of the team going forward, all came and said, 'Coach, you did the right thing,'" Del Rio said of the Peterson developments. "That was important. It was something that needed to be done.
"Again, that's a situation where a guy was putting selfish interests ahead of the team, and then bucked up when challenged about it. It's been portrayed a certain way, and that's OK, because I'm not really concerned with it. But I know, and everybody that was a part of that understands that there's a way to do it that's right and there's a way to do it that's wrong, and there's going to be accountability in our organization."
How did a team that had great chemistry and success in 2007 lose so much of it in a year's time?
This was a big part of Del Rio's explanation at the owners' meetings:
"The thing that stood out in my mind was that we did pay a couple of guys a lot and elected not to -- for whatever reasons internally, and I'm not saying I didn't support it -- but when you don't pay a handful of guys whose contracts are expiring, and you are paying a couple that come in and don't prove to be the right kind of guys, it disrupts things. I think that was part of it."
That shouldn't be an issue going forward.
After conceding mistakes with Porter and Florence, the Jaguars have sworn off high-priced free agents. The two outsiders brought in -- tackle Tra Thomas and safety Sean Considine -- were inexpensive. The free agents they've re-signed were role players who didn't get much, either -- veteran center Brad Meester and special-teamers and backups Montell Owens, Brian Iwuh and Scott Starks.
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| Steve Mitchell/US Presswire | |
| Maurice Jones-Drew will be expected to take on a larger leadership role this season. |
The one guy who's in line for a pricey extension, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, might be the team's most important player. It would be hard for anyone to grumble legitimately if MJD gets his new deal.
With or without a new package, Jones-Drew will be looked to by the post-Taylor Jags to lead more.
"Certainly, Maurice Drew is one of the electrifying guys in the league," Del Rio said. "We're going to get him more opportunities. I think yo
u'll see some of his leadership skills emerge with the void created. He never really wanted to step on Fred's toes. And I think now that Fred's not there, it's going to open up the door for Maurice to be more assertive."
He and the rest of the Jaguars' vets will be joined by Smith's first draft class -- currently nine picks deep. Smith has said he plans to build through the draft, and that he plans to place a premium on character in his selections.
"We want to add good teammates to this football team," he said.
Del Rio emphasized that the franchise hardly feels the cupboard is bare. Smith pointed to players he expects to take on larger leadership roles in the new environment.
"We have a good core of what I would call emerging leaders, we have some young ascending players from Rashean Mathis, Daryl Smith, David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis, Brad Meester, Greg Jones, Maurice Jones-Drew. We go down the list, we have a number of players.
"Montell Owens is an outstanding leader on special teams. We have a good core and we have other guys that are emerging as well. As you build a team chemistry and you get people believing in 'we,' you have a chance to compete at a high level."
It's an age-old debate: Does chemistry beget winning or does winning beget chemistry?
Del Rio said he played on teams that had great chemistry but didn't win, that the 1989 Dallas Cowboys developed respect for each other even as they finished 1-15. The Cowboys of the early 90s, the Ravens of 2000 (for whom he was an assistant coach) and the 2007 Jaguars all had great chemistry, he said.
"It was as unselfish, team-first, egos-really-checked-at-the-door as it could be," Del Rio said of his group two years ago. "The same combination of guys for the most part kind of soured the following year. As coaches, we'd like to get our hands on it, whatever that magic formula is, and sprinkle it on all of our players. But it doesn't work that way. You have to work at it ....
"It's not automatic. I think there's a common respect needed. Last year -- again, I hate to continue to go back talking about it -- but one of the things that was clear early on was that this time of year we had a lot of talk about, 'Boy, my contract's not getting done, I need this.' There was a lot of 'I, I, I' and not enough 'We, We, We.' So we just need to get back to that commitment of doing things for the good of the team, and putting team first. That's going to be an emphasis."
Understanding construction a key for Jags' Smith
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
In Monroeville, Ohio (population roughly 1,400), nestled about halfway between Cleveland and Toledo, a swath of teal runs through a region tinted orange.
The reason for the patch of Jaguars fans in Browns country is Gene Smith, the 45-year-old first-year Jacksonville general manager and senior vice president of personnel.
A small but determined defensive end and tight end during his career at Monroeville High, Smith left town stamped with the work ethic of his father, Delbert, a construction worker, and with a friendship with his coach, Steve Ringholz, that would last a lifetime.
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| Courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| New Jaguars general manager Gene Smith prefers a steady approach to building a team, rather than making splashy acquisitions. |
"He was a self-made player. He didn't have great athletic ability but he worked very hard and he not only demanded a lot out of himself, but he demanded a lot out of his teammates," Ringholz said. "He had a lot of instincts for the game of football. He had a lot of instincts for dealing with people."
When he wasn't playing football, he was often working for his father, learning early the importance of a good shift, while developing an interest in the way things are built.
"When you're working for your dad, you're a laborer," Smith said with a laugh. "Concrete and structural work interested me most. But when I say concrete, I was the guy who was wheeling the concrete. I didn't have all the high-level chores now, I was tending mud if we were laying block.
"But the structural part is a lot of what I did, studding up walls and anything structural and with concrete. My dad always taught me that the key to a good home is putting in a good foundation, and that's why I think with a good football team, a good foundation starts up front with your offensive and defensive lines."
It's too neat a metaphor, too hokey, but it works: The guy now in charge of putting the Jaguars together, who will work to build consensus but ultimately has the final say on personnel matters and roster decisions, is simply looking for the studs and concrete with which to rebuild a team.
It won't come with high-priced free agents, an approach the Jaguars have used before with poor results. It will come with a patient plan, heavily reliant on the draft. The Jaguars intend to start with strong lines and build from the back end of the roster, at least at the beginning.
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The franchise's early decisions under Smith included admitting mistakes and parting with receiver Jerry Porter and cornerback Drayton Florence, and making the more difficult choice to let running back Fred Taylor go.
Although the team signed Sean Considine to play strong safety as a less expensive alternative to free agent Gerald Sensabaugh, the other contracts Smith has put together so far have been for backups and strong special-teamers like Montell Owens, Brian Iwuh and James Wyche.
"A lot of people look at it as guys who can make your 53. I'm looking at guys who can get into our game-day 45," Smith said. "... Without question those type of players are players you can get your hands on earlier than a guy that you play every down, per se."
Bigger building blocks will come in the draft, where the Jaguars have the No. 8 pick, but the idea of solidifying the back end of the roster at the start of his regime is one that's worked for one of the teams the Jaguars are trying to catch -- many of the early moves of Tennessee's Mike Reinfeldt's were similar.
Smith was named to the post Jan. 12, and the move received big applause from the scouting community, which was pleased to see one of its own ascend. At his first big scouting event after taking on the new responsibilities, a dozen or so scouts quickly approached him in the Reliant Stadium parking lot at an East-West Shrine Game practice to offer congratulations.
Smith has been with the Jaguars since before they had a roster, hired by Tom Coughlin in 1994. One scout from another team classified him a quiet, hardworking, well-organized and well-respected football man.
As he works with Jack Del Rio, the coaching staff and a scouting staff he was long a part, Smith still has a touchstone in Monroeville. His parents have passed away, but Ringholz is still coaching. The 58-year-old member of the Ohio High School Football Coaches Association Hall of Fame said he talks to Smith just about every day.
When Del Rio and his staff coached in the Senior Bowl, Ringholz took in some practices in Mobile, Ala., with Smith.
"We talk almost daily, sometimes more than once a day," Ringholz said. "He'll talk a lot about what's going on, ask my opinion about things and he's always wanting to know what's going on back here. A lot of stuff that we talk about he wants it to stay just between him and me.
"He's had some very tough decisions to make, not just tough business decisions but tough personal decisions. Fred Taylor was somebody that he watched come up, he studied while [Taylor] was in college. It was a tough one for Gene, there is no doubt about that."
As the franchise looks to add
new players who might be great finds as Taylor was, Smith and Del Rio will be concerned with how they will factor into chemistry and develop into leaders.
Smith is hopeful that fresh blood will arrive and then follow a course similar to his own, working up through the organization.
"I certainly believe that players make the system," he said.
As a decision-maker, he said he intends to be more Ichiro than A-Rod.
"Certainly we'd like to get them all right, but I am probably someone with more of a base hit philosophy," he said. "If you get base hits, you get people on base, you're going to score and probably win more consistently than if you're standing up there trying to hit home runs. If you're trying to hit home runs, you're going to be striking out a lot."
He likes the baseball terminology, but said he's no baseball guy.
As a football guy, he's now got some pieces and a lot of power. He will be measured in his decisions, but undaunted by the new power.
"I try to be a good listener, then I also watch a lot of film myself," he said. "I say the value is in the evaluator. So I study a lot of film on players. I'm not one that's just listening and delegating, I'm also a doer. I think in the end, you try to build a consensus. But decisions have to be made and I am confident in my abilities, with the staff around me, to make those decisions."
Reading the coverage: Will Slaton backup come in draft?
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
Mike Mayock of NFL.com lists the top five draft prospects by position.
Houston Texans
With Cedric Benson back in Cincinnati, the Texans will likely look to the draft for a back to join Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats, writes John McClain.
Indianapolis Colts
New site alert, or at least new to me: Check out John Oehser's The Indy Football report.
Peyton Manning talked to a giant group of Boy Scouts in Birmingham, says the Birmingham News.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tra Thomas' talks with the Jaguars were very informal and didn't include an official visit, reports Michael C. Wright.
Clark Judge looks at good free-agent signings from the recent past and includes Jaguars defensive back Brian Williams on his list.
Drayton Florence landed in Buffalo and Tim Graham blogged about what it means for the Bills.
Cole Pepper considers how adding Thomas would work for the Jaguars.
Maurice Jones-Drew spoke with Dave Richard about his desire for a new contract.
Tennessee Titans
Titans free agents are traveling Wednesday: Chris Simms to Denver, Daniel Loper to Detroit. Gary Estwick with details.
Fearing big deals, Jags still need free agents
INDIANAPOLIS -- As the Jaguars look to revamp, they could be replacing as many as seven starters from their depth chart.
While they've talked about how they will steer away from big ticket free agency and build from the inside through the draft, those holes are too big for a draft class to fill. The Jaguars have six picks in the draft and are not expecting any compensatory selections to beef up the class.
So it's reasonable to expect the Jaguars to take the free agency approach other teams have employed in recent years that won't get fans especially excited in March but could pay off in November.
Using the one-man's-trash-is-another-man's-treasure approach, they could seek players who come at reasonable costs and have the potential in their systems to pan out as effective pieces.
Examples from elsewhere last year: quarterback Chad Pennington in Miami, linebacker Kawika Mitchell in Buffalo, return man and corner Chris Carr in Tennessee (a restricted free agent with no compensation attached), running back Mewelde Moore in Pittsburgh, linebacker Brandon Chillar in Green Bay and nose tackle Bryan Robinson in Arizona.
New GM Gene Smith indicated to Michael Wright recently that selective free agent shopping in the discount aisle is part of the plan a year after the team handed big bucks to receiver Jerry Porter and Drayton Florence, who they recently cut.
"We'll look at all positions where we feel a player may improve our roster," Smith said. "There is a role for pro free agency. I know a lot of people feel that a large number of players usually get overpaid and end up underperforming, and there are examples of that every year. When you pay a player a large sum of money there are naturally higher expectations placed on him. Some play up to the expectations and some don't.
"Bottom line, it's tough for any new player to come into a new environment and new system and have an immediate impact. ... Some certainly will be role players and others will be competing for starting positions There are some positions that will be of more emphasis than others. We may not be the so-called 'big players' on opening day, but we'll stay the course on the targeted players we have an interest in."
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9), 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday
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In the first meeting between these teams at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Jaguars had a tremendous day rushing the football. They ran 48 times for 236 yards, crushing the Colts in time of possession, 41:35 to 18:25. But even the successful game of keep-away (find my account of that game here) was barely enough.
The Colts had a late touchdown drive that proved too efficient, and after Jacksonville got the ball back with 1:07 remaining, it moved 47 yards -- with the benefit of a penalty against Freddy Keiaho that provided a critical first down -- to set up Josh Scobee's last-second, 51-yard game-winning field goal. Final score: Jags 23, Indy 21.
Here's a handy game recap from nfl.com.
The Colts have fortified their run defense since then, and there is no way the Jaguars can come close to matching their effort in that game. Maurice Jones-Drew will get the bulk of the carries with Fred Taylor on IR.
Slowing the run, the Colts will put the game on David Garrard's shoulders. With limited weapons, he'll need time to find options and I suspect two guys just named to the Pro Bowl, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, are not going to give it to him.
A win for the Colts would clinch a playoff spot. In short-rest games between tired teams, the home team usually has an edge. But the Jaguars rallied to win Sunday against Green Bay, ending a four-game losing streak. That may prove to have been their last stand.
One matchup note: Jags cornerback Drayton Florence buried Indy tight end Dallas Clark with a shoulder-to-helmet hit that knocked him out of the game for a time. Perhaps the Colts will welcome any opportunity to be physical with Florence.
Audibles: AFC South Week 14 preview
Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4), 1 p.m. ET
Peyton Manning didn't throw a touchdown pass last week in Cleveland.
That's bad news for the Bengals.
Since 2000, and not counting games at the end of the season that didn't have meaning because the Colts had sewn up their playoff position, Manning is 11-1 in games after he didn't throw a touchdown pass, with 29 touchdown passes and only six interceptions.
The Colts have won five in a row, all by six points or fewer. If they win this one by six or fewer, they'll be the first team ever with such a six-game streak.
Can the Bengals put up that sort of resistance? They've been outscored by an average of 13.2 points a game.
Tidbits: Bengals tight end Ben Utecht spent the last three seasons with the Colts ... Playing for the Titans, Antwan Odom had two sacks in his most recent game against the Colts, both of Jim Sorgi ... Odom (shoulder) and Utecht (foot) will be miss Sunday's game ... Marvin Harrison caught three touchdown passes the last time he played against the Bengals, on Dec. 18, 2006.
Houston Texans (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-7), 1 p.m. ET
The Packers are 1-4 since their bye week and have allowed 86 points and eight rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks.
Those numbers could bode well for Houston. Rookie running back Steve Slaton has been super-productive in his last three games with 56 carries for 359 yards -- that's 6.4 yards per carry -- to go with three touchdowns. He's 96 yards away from 1,000. He'll be taking handoffs from Matt Schaub, back at quarterback after a four-game layoff recovering from a knee injury.
Houston has won two in a row and looks for its second three-game win streak of the season.
Tidbits: In his only game against the Packers, receiver Andre Johnson caught six passes for 107 yards ... Mario Williams is third in the NFL since 2007 with 25 sacks ... Houston was 3-1 in December last year, while the Packers have won seven of their last eight games in the month.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Chicago Bears (6-6), 1 p.m. ET
Since 2000, running back Fred Taylor leads the NFL with 13 100-yard rushing games against the NFC. But he's averaging less than 42 yards a game this year and the way the Bears have played the run, it seems unlikely Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew, who has six rushing TDs in his last five games, will break out. In nine games against teams other than the Vikings or Packers, Chicago has allowed 59.2 ground yards a game and 2.6 yards a carry.
Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard hasn't been on the injury report this week, but he has been banged up. He's fared well in his career against NFC teams with a 7-1 record, and in his last four he has a 96.8 passer rating. However, he's been sacked 11 times in his last three games.
Tidbits: The Jaguars will start Drayton Florence at cornerback in place of Rashean Mathis, who's out for the season with a knee injury, and William James could play as the nickelback ... Chicago leads the NFL with 26 takeaways and Jacksonville has 18 giveaways ... When he last played against Jacksonville, as a Miami Dolphin in 2003, defensive end Adewale Ogunleye had three sacks and a forced fumble.
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (11-1), 1 p.m. ET
The Titans clinch the AFC South with a win or a Colts loss to Cincinnati, and clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Jets loss at San Francisco.
At plus-13, Tennessee is the league's best takeaway/giveaway team and Cleveland is tied for fifth at plus-6.
December football for the Titans means forcing the issue with the run. Against Cleveland's 3-4 and nose tackle Shaun Rogers, they will look to build on this: Since 2007, the Titans are 18-3 in games where they record 30 or more rushes. Rookie Chris Johnson will key the attack.
Most rushes of 10 or more yards in 2008:
1) Michael Turner, Atlanta, 33
2) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota, 32
3) Clinton Portis, Washington, 29
4) Thomas Jones, NY Jets, 27
5) Chris Johnson, Tennessee, 25
6) Marion Barber, Dallas, 23
Brandon Jacobs, NY Giants, 23
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo, 23
Derrick Ward, NY Giants, 23
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina, 23
The Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback, their third different starter this season. The only other teams to use three starters this year -- Kansas City, Seattle and Detroit are a combined 4-32.
Tidbits: The Browns have won the last three meetings ... Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck will start his 110th consecutive game. He needs five tackles for his seventh consecutive season over 100 ... Rob Bironas has a league-high 14 field goals from 40 yards or longer this season, but not one attempt from 50 or longer.
Mathis injury gives Florence chance for redemption
Drayton Florence is about to get another chance to prove he's not a bust.
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| Mathis | Florence |
He got big money from the Jaguars in the offseason and jumped from San Diego -- six years, $36 million, $12 million in bonuses, including a $2.5 million roster bonus next year. He lost his starting job Week 6 in Denver when the team used his groin injury as the reason to shuffle things. Monday night in Houston, he worked as the nickelback.
He will re-emerge as a starter now with Rashean Mathis, the team's top corner and perhaps its top defender, expected to go on IR after suffering a knee injury in Houston. Mathis leads the Jags with four interceptions.
"On the injury front, Rashean Mathis, it looks like in a likelihood he'll be placed on IR," coach Jack Del Rio told Jacksonville reporters Wednesday. "He's got a significant MCL sprain and will need to be immobilized for a few weeks. It won't require any surgery but it's going to need some time to heal properly, and so it's a good likelihood that he'll end up going on IR at some point this week."
Mathis was hurt defending a pass into the end zone from holder Matt Turk after a bad snap by Houston's Bryan Pittman on a field goal attempt.
The Jaguars don't have great options at nickel.
William James was terrible on defense earlier this season and Brian Witherspoon has been primarily a return man. Free agent rookie Isaiah Gardner of the practice squad could emerge as an option.
A three-safety look would bring veteran Pierson Prioleau on the field.
On the bright side, the Bears are hardly known for their downfield threats -- the top pass catcher among their wide receivers is converted return man Devin Hester (34 catches for 442 yards and three TDs).
Mathis out with sprained right knee
HOUSTON -- Jaguars cornerback Rashean Mathis is out with a sprained right knee, a terrible development for a team that was counting on him to slow Andre Johnson.
The Texans just had their first possession of the second half and moved to a 50-yard Kris Brown field goal that put them ahead 13-0.
Brian Williams has flipped to cover Johnson, with Drayton Florence in as the other corner with Mathis out.
Mathis got hurt defending a desperation pass in the back right corner of the end zone. Holder Matt Turk tried to salvage a bad snap by Bryan Pittman on a 21-yard field goal attempt but his pass for Owen Daniels sailed incomplete as Mathis went down.
Scouts Inc.: Jags' fall mirrors demise of D
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| Jimmy DeFlippo/US PRESSWIRE | |
| The loss of defensive tackle Marcus Stroud through free agency is one reason for Jacksonville's regression on defense. |
Posted by Scouts Inc.
What a difference a year makes. A year ago at this time, the Jacksonville Jaguars were rolling at 7-3 and headed for the playoffs, where a deep run may have been prevented only by one of the most dominant teams in NFL history (New England). This season: a 4-6 record, losses in four of their last six and lots of problems with no obvious solutions.
One of the most glaring problems has been the play of the Jaguars' defense. The team's rushing yards allowed and completion percentage allowed have risen significantly, while the sacks have all but dried up. The main difference between this year's unit and the borderline-dominant 2007 version? A gaping hole where defensive tackle Marcus Stroud used to be. Stroud's offseason departure for Buffalo has proven costly, with a once-physical Jacksonville defense having turned uncharacteristically soft. Drawing up game plans against the Jags has become far easier for opposing offensive coordinators now that Stroud and fellow defensive tackle John Henderson aren't forcing them to pick their poison. With that tandem no longer absorbing multiple blockers and crumbling the interior pocket, the Jaguars' linebackers are getting less protection in the run game and the defensive ends receive more blocking attention on the pass rush.
But the rocky transition from coordinator Mike Smith (who took the head-coach position in Atlanta) to Gregg Williams also shouldn't be overlooked. Smith occasionally mixed coverages, but he mostly played things close to the vest, featuring a lot of four-man rushes and two-deep shells. Though Williams also favors a 4-3 front, his schemes couldn't be more different. Williams is an aggressive playcaller who puts a premium on pressure and loves to blitz. His philosophy, however, isn't in sync with Jacksonville's personnel, including (and maybe especially) the team's offseason moves.
By signing cornerback Drayton Florence and trading up to acquire defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves on draft day, the Jaguars believed they could turn up the heat on opposing quarterbacks while matching up better with their receivers. But the team overestimated Florence's matchup ability -- he fares better in zone and probably should be a No. 3 corner -- and likely overdrafted Harvey, who lacks ideal quick-twitch athleticism for the edge and clearly has suffered from missing training camp in a holdout. And from the start, the investment in edge-rushers didn't make sense for a team that hired a blitz-happy coordinator. Williams' five- and six-man blitzes haven't clicked because the Jaguars' linebackers aren't gifted pass-rushers. But the front four alone isn't creating enough pressure, so opposing quarterbacks are wisely avoiding cornerback Rashean Mathis (Jacksonville's best cover man by far) and picking apart the secondary.
The ill-advised personnel moves, coordinator switch and even the chemistry issues caused by linebacker Mike Peterson's demotion have contributed to the slippage of Jacksonville's defense. But the most surprising change has been this unit's attitude. It isn't there. The Jags used to ooze toughness. Opponents hated playing them, because they knew getting out of bed Monday was going to hurt. All the scheme and lineup changes in the world can't bring back that edge.
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.
Free agent hits big part of success for Jets, Titans
The Titans did it gradually. The Jets had a big swoop.
But the two teams that square off Sunday in Nashville share a quality that has helped set them apart from a lot of teams in the NFL: They have hit on veteran free agents who have been productive and helped shape their team's culture.
The Jets are getting good production out of guard Alan Faneca as well as linebacker Calvin Pace. Right tackle Damien Woody has been OK. (Trades for Brett Favre and Kris Jenkins have obviously been big too, but we're sticking to free agents here.) The Titans are better on the offensive line with Jake Scott at right guard, and made solid additions in the last few years with cornerback Nick Harper and linebacker David Thornton.
Other hits so far from the 2008 free agent class include running back Michael Turner in Atlanta, defensive end Travis LaBoy in Arizona, defensive end Justin Smith in San Francisco, linebacker Kawika Mitchell in Buffalo and center Jeff Faine in Tampa Bay.
But plenty of other teams have swung and missed with significant deals for players they hoped would be cures -- Jacksonville with receiver Jerry Porter and cornerback Drayton Florence, Cleveland with Donte' Stallworth, Miami with defensive tackle Randy Starks and receiver Ernest Wilford and Oakland with receiver Javon Walker.
When a team brings in a guy with a big contract and high hopes and he fails to pan out early on, it hurts a team in multiple ways. A club misses the production, obviously, but can also be deflated by having failed in an attempt to get an immediate upgrade. It's a whiffed tackle or dropped pass that can haunt a team.
Both the Titans and the Jets have put a premium on personalities as they've brought guys in.
"When you bring in free agents it's also a function of how well they fit into the group that's already there," Jets coach Eric Mangini said. "How quickly they can stop being free agents and start being Jets? One of the things that has always been important to us is core characteristics with the people that we bring in and that's smart, tough, hard-working guys, guys that are competitive and selfless, and guys that football is important to."
"That's the draft, that's free agency and those are characteristics that we target before we even talk about their ability to play football."
That could have just as easily been Jeff Fisher talking about what the Titans have managed to do as they've shopped for veteran help.
Do it well as these two teams have and you might end up in one of the best games of Week 12, pitting a 10-0 team against a 7-3 division leader.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
