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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Colts and why.

The Colts are changing in a big way on defense -- they aim to be bigger, more physical and better against the run. Although they talk of being a hybrid, they want to be a base 3-4 front.

To me, the pressure point will be split between two guys: Coach Chuck Pagano, the architect of the scheme, who will have to answer for its progress. His coordinator, Greg Manusky, will help spread the message, install the system and draw up game plans. The coach and his coordinator share the pressure for a unit that is converting high-quality 4-3 ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis into outside linebackers.

The two are excellent rushers, and there is risk in asking them to stand up and change. But they’ll be charging quarterbacks from a variety of spots, and offenses probably prefer to know where exactly they’ll be lining up.

Pagano helped Indianapolis land three players he coached in Baltimore: nose tackle Brandon McKinney, end Cory Redding and safety Tom Zbikowski. The draft added only fifth-round nose tackle Josh Chapman and seventh-round end Tim Fugger.

How much of the personnel deficiencies, especially in the secondary, can Pagano and Manusky cover up with scheme?

1. Houston Texans: Wade Phillips did some great things with this defense a year ago. But he’s not the only member of the Texans’ organization who deserves credit for an incredibly improved defense from 2010 to 2011. Houston’s front office was very aggressive in addressing the defensive side of the ball last offseason. Now, Houston has big-time players at each level of its 3-4 defense.

For those who don’t yet know, J.J. Watt immediately established himself as one of the up-and-coming defensive players in this league. Not only is Watt is a fantastic hustle player, but he has ideal size and length for his 3-4 defensive end position to go with well above-average athletic ability. Watt will be a star. Like Watt, Brian Cushing did everything asked of him really well from his inside linebacker spot last season and has established himself as one of the better second-level defenders in the league.

Before last season, the Texans paid a premium to sign him, but simply put, Johnathan Joseph is one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL today. He is the total package and probably the best player on this excellent defense -- which is really saying something. The Texans could use one more cover man to step up, though. Overall, Houston is well-equipped in coverage and of course the pass rush helped a lot in that capacity.

Maybe what the Texans’ defense did best in Phillips’ first year was rushing the quarterback -- even without Mario Williams for much of the season. The Texans did add Whitney Mercilus to further enhance their threat off the edge and Connor Barwin could be knocking on the door of stardom.

Besides the first-round selection of Mercilus, who is in an ideal position to learn the outside linebacker position slowly, the Texans mostly stuck to improving their offense in the draft. However, Houston did land an intriguing prospect to play behind Watt and the underrated Antonio Smith in late fourth-round pick Jared Crick, who is an ideal fit for this defensive scheme. Only the Steelers, 49ers and Raves allowed fewer points than Houston last year. Don’t expect much of a drop-off this year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The AFC South has a shot to have two top-five defenses in 2012. Mike Malarkey takes over as the Jaguars’ head coach, but his focus will be getting quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s career straightened out and improving a dismal Jacksonville passing game.

The defense will be in Mel Tucker’s hands. Tucker wants a fast-flowing, physical and aggressive defense that doesn’t blitz a lot and gets most of its pressure from the defensive linemen. The Jaguars found a gem in Jeremy Mincey, who’s excelled in all facets of playing defensive end in their 4-3 scheme. But this defense really lacked a complementary end to Mincey, especially as a pass-rusher. Jacksonville used the No. 38 pick in this year’s draft on Andre Branch, who could help immediately on passing downs but offers little against the run.

One guy who let this defense down last season is Tyson Alualu, who really had a down 2011 season in all regards. Still, only three teams bettered Jacksonville in rushing yards allowed per attempt in 2011. A vastly underrated positional group in the NFL is the Jaguars’ linebacker corps, especially Daryl Smith, who does everything well on the second level. Paul Posluszny isn’t much behind Smith and was a fine addition to Jacksonville’s defense in free agency a year ago. The Jags’ secondary lacks star power but it is pretty solid at each position. The Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed last year. They could improve upon that in 2012.

3. Tennessee Titans: There isn’t a lot of star power here, but the Titans are very young on defense and could be poised to improve. Youngsters Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and others are much better players than many casual NFL fans know. Third-round pick Mike Martin should be the perfect complement to the run-stuffing Casey and the lighter pass-rushing Klug in the Titans’ defensive tackle rotation.

The Titans’ pass rush was a huge problem last season, as only Tampa Bay recorded fewer sacks than Tennessee, but it should be much better this year, especially with the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. Former first-round pick Derrick Morgan also should finally be healthy. This is a key season for Morgan -- and the Titans need more from him.

On the second level, the Titans are now very young and active. Colin McCarthy is a tackling machine and should quickly establish himself as a leader of this defense. Tennessee lost Cortland Finnegan to the Rams in free agency, but overall, their coverage people were above average last season -- despite that suspect pass rush. Finnegan had an excellent season, though, and will be difficult to replace.

The Titans look to be improved up front in their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, but not as strong on the back end in coverage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points than Tennessee during the 2011 season. Maintaining that standard could be difficult, but overall, this is a pretty solid group in just about all areas.

4. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts might have the worst defense in the NFL this season. Their run defense was abysmal last season. Indianapolis has nowhere to go but up in this department and additions such as Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney and Josh Chapman should help shore up the run defense at the line of scrimmage. Still, such a drastic scheme change really leaves Indianapolis in a bind on this side of the ball for 2012.

Although the Colts surely will not be playing with the lead as much as they did when Peyton Manning was behind center, the edge pass-rush presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis should still rank among the best in the NFL. Mathis was probably the Colts’ best defensive player last season. He can still get it done. I believe the same is true with Freeney. As good as Freeney and Mathis still are, just the Titans and Buccaneers sacked opposing quarterbacks less than Indianapolis.

Besides Freeney and Mathis, Pat Angerer and especially Antoine Bethea are above-average starters for their respective positions. But outside of these four, the remaining prevalent members of the Colts’ defense are littered with flaws. One player I am very high on is Drake Nevis, but Nevis was drafted to be an upfield disruptive three-technique. The problem here is that if Indianapolis goes with a predominantly 3-4 alignment, Nevis’ great penetrating abilities could be wasted. That is the problem with switching schemes -- players from the former philosophy aren’t well-suited for what the new coaching staff has in mind. This applies to many members of the Colts’ defense, which up until now was a fast-flowing undersized unit built on speed. Now this unit will be building to be much like what Chuck Pagano coached in Baltimore -- and Nevis is one of many examples of the problems with making such a change.

The Colts were not strong at all in coverage last year -- and it doesn’t look as though they will be much improved in 2012. They are particularly weak at cornerback. Indianapolis also had the fewest interceptions in the league last year. Pagano and his defensive staff will be more creative with their looks and pressures, which he hopes will leads to more turnovers created. Getting more Ravens-type of defensive players will be a massive priority for Indianapolis next offseason.

Who’s playing pass defense for the Indianapolis Colts?

New coach Chuck Pagano will convert the Colts, a longtime 4-3 team, to a 3-4. He’s cited the Texans’ changeover a year ago as an example of how it can happen in one year and how the front actually gets scrambled up and can often still have the look of a 4-3.

In Year 1 for Pagano in Indianapolis, however, it’s the personnel that may dictate more of the old base front. The Colts signed a veteran nose tackle (Brandon McKinney) and a veteran end (Cory Redding), and drafted a nose tackle in fifth-rounder Josh Chapman. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be less predictable coming forward from outside linebacker positions.

The problem is in the secondary.

Indianapolis was 15th against the pass last year. But that ranking is misleading because offenses could run against the Colts and often handed off while trying to run time off the clock and preserve leads.

Antoine Bethea is a quality free safety and Jerraud Powers is a good corner. Beyond them, the Colts are thin and unproven in the defensive backfield.

They didn’t draft any defensive backs, though their initial undrafted rookie group of 15 includes five of them.

No matter how well the Colts rush out of the new front, the team needs people behind it who can cover, which is not the strong suit of the veteran addition to the group, strong safety Tom Zbikowski.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

Hosts Bill Polian and Alex Marvez spoke with Indianapolis Colts veteran defensive end/outside linebacker Dwight Freeney on SiriusXM NFL Radio recently, and kindly provided this snippet.

Polian: “I can’t get used to hearing ‘Colts outside linebacker Dwight Freeney.’ Tell me what the new defense is going to ask you to do, how you think you are going to be deployed and how you are viewing it and what you are looking forward to.”

Freeney: “Yeah, it’s definitely something that I’m not used to hearing. But it’s going to be interesting and fun for me. I’ve been doing, as you know, the same thing I’ve always been doing for 10 years, going on my 11th year now. And I’ve been pretty successful at it. They’re going to be putting in a system similar to kinda like, you know, maybe the Ravens or Pittsburgh a little bit, outside linebacker, which is a proven system that works.

“So I guess for me it is just getting familiar with all those nuances, my line of sight, walking around, dropping in coverage. I’m doing those things and, you know, that’s just going to take a little time in the beginning to get used to, to get as comfortable as I have been having my hand on the ground, being in one position.

“But also this is going to probably benefit me maybe a little bit because I’m not in a blackboard position, as we call it, where they know exactly where I am and they know exactly what we’re going to do. We’ll be coming with different various blitzes from different sides. I’ll be moving around so I’ll be harder to find.”

Polian: “So similar to what [Terrell] Suggs did in Baltimore?”

Freeney: “Similar to it. I’m sure we’ll come up with our own little tweaks to that whole entire system. But I think from a pass-rusher’s standpoint, that’s the benefit if you can go out and be able to do all that you have done, for me, on one side. Now being able to pass rush against the opposite tackle who may be a weaker player, maybe they’ll single out a guard, who knows what they’ll do? Which will give me some opportunities to make some big plays where in the past it was pretty much, ‘Dwight, you’re on the right, whatever they throw at you just handle it and deal with it.”

Freeney sounds fired up, which is great and which makes me fired up to see the Colts defense with him and Robert Mathis in the new roles. I suspect they'll both be struggling with the suspect coverage the team will field behind them.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Grigson's film study of Andrew Luck took him beyond reads and recognition, mechanics and throws.

“You’re talking about a guy who, when there is a busted play or he throws an interception, he runs down and hits like a linebacker,” the Colts' general manager said. “On a trick play, he shows the ball skills of an elite receiver.”

Those are nice clips from Stanford, for sure, and they reveal much about the Indianapolis Colts' new quarterback.

But with Luck officially their man, Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have effectively taken a pledge to add people and craft a scheme to maximize his chances at success -- and not when he turns into a defender or a receiver. If the Colts' new regime stays true to that obligation, it shouldn’t be long before Luck is doing what top NFL quarterbacks do -- completing passes in critical situations and leading his team to wins and playoff appearances.

It’s a familiar storyline for sure. It's the same oath the franchise took with Peyton Manning in 1998.

“I think this thing happened 14 years ago,” Pagano said. “I think it’s all happening again, right before our eyes.”

Pagano went on to rattle off a list of qualities everybody wants in his quarterback and top players: football IQ, character, integrity, work ethic, good family background, worldliness, humility, leadership, passion and competitiveness.

“When you look at clean players across the board, when you talk about height, weight, speed, intelligence -- A to Z, if you want to label him a 9 or 10 in every one of those categories, you probably can,” Pagano said.

The Colts are not slated to pick again until 34th, the second pick of the second round Friday night.

A chorus of analysts say the Colts are duty-bound to add someone who can help Luck, despite the pull that Pagano, a former defensive coordinator, might feel for a defender. My opinion is they don’t absolutely have to go with offense the next time they are on the clock, but in this draft and until the roster is filled out, they should lean that direction more often than not.

Grigson emphasized “this is a team” and that the Colts will do things with a team mindset, acquiring good players, regardless of position.

But he also admitted the obvious.

“Of course you want to protect him the best you can, you want to put players around him that are going to make him comfortable, you want to do things to help facilitate him being great,” Grigson said.

Pagano has emphasized running the ball well and stopping the run, elements that are typically regarded as providing aid to a young quarterback, but elements too that have become less and less important to Super Bowl-winning teams in the modern NFL.

“You’ve got to protect the kid, you’ve got to put enough pieces and enough playmakers around him,” Pagano said. “... You can add a piece here and you can add a piece there to make sure that everything doesn’t rely on Andrew making plays with his arm, and running around making plays with his feet outside the pocket, and extending plays and things like that. We’ve got to play great defense, too, I’m not going to slight that.”

The Colts want to protect Luck with good blocking but are conscious that they will have to protect him from himself as he looks to inherit Manning’s mantle, revive a franchise coming off a horrific year that prompted monumental changes and give the city a new sporting face.

“He’s going to be eager to come in here and think that he’s got to carry this whole thing on his shoulders,” Pagano said. “And that’s the first thing we’re going to tell him. He doesn’t have to do that. He’s just got to do what he does, and that’s play quarterback. And he plays it really well.”

As good as he is coming into the league, Luck is not a finished product. What great collegian is?

Pagano hired Bruce Arians as his offensive coordinator because he effectively helped shape Manning here early on as well.

The new quarterback will arrive in town Friday knowing he’s got plenty he can work on as he evolves into a professional. Play calling can be a big help to him as well, Pagano said.

I wrote earlier of traits Luck has that date back to high school, and how they can be contagious for a rebuilding franchise. He said he doesn’t know whether his longtime ability to compartmentalize will be needed more or less as he becomes a full-time football player. It’s just another of the many things he will learn in the months and years ahead.

For right now, Luck said the most exciting part of things is becoming part of a new locker room and getting to “meet the guys.” It was a Manning-esque comment, deflecting focus, aiming to share it.

Luck said it’ll be an honor to throw to Reggie Wayne, whom he called a future Hall of Famer, as well as Austin Collie and Donnie Avery. He said it will be big to be able to learn leadership qualities from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And he seemed thrilled to hear Grigson and Pagano talk about how they’ll surround him.

“It’s exciting to be part of a team where they are saying that they need playmakers and all of that,” he said. “I’m looking forward to it. ... You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself. You have to realize you have to go through a whole process leading up to a game through a season.

“That being said, I do have high expectations for myself. And I’ll try to do the best I can. I know it’s cliché, but I’ll try to live up to my own expectations and fit in with all the guys and then do the best we can.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- While the Colts await the official start of the Andrew Luck era, earlier Thursday they had a minicamp practice. It was Dwight Freeney’s first time on the field since Chuck Pagano has taken over, and his first time lining up as an outside linebacker in a new 3-4 defense.

Here’s Freeney, via Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star:

“It’s going to be interesting. It’s fun right now, at least, just doing something different. I’ve been doing one way for what, 10 years going on 11 years. It’s kind of fun to do something different.

“And you know it’s a proven system. Guys can make plays. We’ll see what happens.”

Freeney said he’s talked to Baltimore middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed about the 3-4 system that new Colts coach Chuck Pagano has brought from his days as the Ravens defensive coordinator. Pagano has said the Colts will play a hybrid defense, sometimes in a 3-4 and other plays in a 4-3 alignment.

“They love (Pagano). They love the system,” Freeney said. “They said, ‘You’re going to love it.’ I guess it’s a rush friendly type of scheme, which I love.”

There is still buzz about the Colts looking to trade Freeney. But he’d have to strike a new deal with a new team to reduce the scheduled base salary of over $14 million in the final year of his current deal.

Indy has 10 picks, but three of them are in the seventh round.

Anything they can do to get more and draft players who can help Luck on offense and speed the conversion of the defense would be welcome. Since Freeney is only assured of one more year here and is so expensive, dealing him would make sense.

But as Peter King points out in that piece I linked, the Eagles getting only a seventh-rounder for cornerback Asante Samuel from the Falcons says a lot about the trade market for veterans.

I think it’s crazy, personally. Freeney can still rush the passer. The odds you hit a home run with even a third-rounder that makes the pick more valuable over a career than the three years of Freeney would be worth are exceptionally low.

Freeney said he’s under contract and expecting to play it through.

We’re talked a lot about needs for the Colts, beyond quarterback which will be addressed when they draft Andrew Luck first overall: cornerback, safety, nose tackle, tight end, receiver and perhaps an offensive lineman.

We’re expecting Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney to spend most of their time at outside linebacker in a new 3-4 the Colts will be in as often as possible. If so, then some guys who were tackles in the old 4-3 will shift to end in that front. Fili Moala and Drake Nevis would head the list to work with free-agent addition Cory Redding. Nevis was not mentioned by GM Ryan Grigson recently when he talked of free-agent addition Brandon McKinney and holdover Antonio Johnson as the team’s primary answers at nose tackle.

In this scenario, the Colts are quite thin at outside linebacker.

I fully expect Jerry Hughes will get a chance there. The next most notable linebacker names on the roster for a spot that needs a great deal of depth are Kavell Conner and Scott Lutrus. And Conner may be an inside guy.

While Mathis and Freeney will surely be asked to do much of what they’ve done through successful careers as outside backers, the fact remains that there isn’t one proven 3-4 outside linebacker in that group. (And beyond Pat Angerer, there isn’t a guy we know can play inside in a 3-4 either -- though that situational job isn’t as difficult to fill.)

Freeney is also entering the last year of a very expensive contract.

The Colts have 10 picks in the draft, five in the first 136. They’ll need to address linebacker somewhere along the way.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

Round two of the tournament that will determine the cover boy for "Madden NFL 2013" is underway.

The AFC South candidates were cut in half in the first round.

Third-seeded Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew beat 14th-seeded Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowski and third-seeded Houston running back Arian Foster topped 14th-seeded Jets reserve quarterback Tim Tebow.

But Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney, a ninth seed, lost a close contest to San Diego tight end Antonio Gates. And eighth-seeded Tennessee running back Chris Johnson was beaten by ninth-seeded Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch.

The victories by Foster and Gates were the closest of the first round.

Next up, Foster gets Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson and MJD gets San Francisco linebacker Patrick Willis.

You can vote here.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Rashad Butler and Antoine Caldwell are getting starting offensive line jobs by default, but both intend to justify the team’s faith that they can step up, writes Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle.

Considering Pythagorean wins and the Texans, with Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher report.

Indianapolis Colts

General manager Ryan Grigson said in the firmest terms possible that defensive end Dwight Freeney isn’t going to be traded or released despite his big cap number, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 20-28 since Gene Smith became general manager, but Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union gives Smith through 2013 to see if he’s got this team on the right course.

It’s not fair to expect Laurent Robinson to be Jimmy Smith, says John Oehser of the Jaguars' website.

Tennessee Titans

A rundown of the Titans' draft picks after they didn’t get any compensatory draft selections, from Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Points of interest from a conference conversation between Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and the Indianapolis media, per a transcript provided by the team:

On three offensive line additions: “Anybody that I would have brought in here is someone who has a very good chance of competing and winning a job. This is going to be a very competitive environment, and that’s how we want to approach this thing at camp. Being very competitive so we’re bringing the best out of everyone. The cream rises to the top in any environment, and that’s the approach I want to take and that’s the approach Coach (Chuck) Pagano is comfortable with. That’s what we’re doing here with these types of players. They all have ability, they’re all wired a certain way and they play the game with a high tempo and they finish. We’re pleased with who we’ve brought into the fold thus far…”

Grigson

“The whole thing about the offensive line is that it’s a team within a team. It has to be cohesive and guys have to help one another and have a certain playing style. That certain playing style is what we’re trying to accomplish with these signings. Also, athletic ability comes into play at some point as well. We want guys who love to play the game, and it shows on film that they love to play the game. And that they play at the right tempo and play with a purpose. That’s to play snap to whistle, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

On wide receiver Donnie Avery: “He’s always been a fast guy. He was the first receiver taken. He’s had considerable production early on in his career, and of course, he as well as we (do), hope he gets back to that level. We sure hope he does, and I know he does. It’s a nice get for us based on what he brings to the table and what he can help in this (offense) with much-needed wrinkle of speed. And he’s a welcomed addition.”

On the status of Dwight Freeney: “Everything with Dwight is great. He’s going to be here this year. We expect him to be a major contributor, and a guy who strikes fear in our opponents and those offensive linemen every week. Moving forward, we’re going to take it day-by-day, and everything right now looks great for our defense with re-signing Robert (Mathis) and having Dwight in the fold. It sure makes me sleep better at night knowing those two guys are going to be bringing it on third down.”

On reports of Freeney on the trading block in order to get out from under his $19 million cap number: “There is a lot of speculation as I’m learning this thing. It’s pretty rampant, and there are a lot of rumors. Like I said, I think last time I addressed (that). There are a lot of rumors that fly, but there’s never been any substance that would suggest we’re doing anything like that. He’s a Colt, period.”

On plans to see the top quarterbacks:“We saw (Robert Griffin III). Circumstances didn’t allow us to do anything private with him, so we did the usual pro day. We did the best we could with that situation. We do have a private workout that we’re scheduling with Andrew (Luck) in the future, which will be here in the upcoming weeks.”

On starting negotiations with the number one draft pick early: “No. We’re going to do it the old fashion way, and that’s not something that’s been discussed at this point about how we would go about that. I think we’ll do it like team[s] always have and keep it simple.”

On the Colts being a fullback team: "As of right now, yes we’ll utilize a fullback. We also can utilize a tight end in a fullback type role. Those things are all evolving as we move forward here, and see what we actually have to actually pick in this draft. We’re still looking and digging for players and trying to get as deep of a pool of quality players that can come in and play for us from college free agents all the way up to the first round. We’re working on that and we’re going to try and plug in the best guys possible, and try to get as many guys in the fold as we can. We’re knocking it out every day as best we can. Hopefully, every day we make a little bit of progress and take it from there.”

With the departure of Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the AFC South lost two overall No. 1 picks.

The loss of star power led me to wonder about what our teams have left in terms of high-ranking draft picks, and how they compare to one another and the rest of the league.

John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked at the average draft slot of the top 10 highest-drafted players -- how ever deep that goes beyond the first round -- still on each team.

Obviously, where a team drafts is based on how it finishes. Certainly higher draft picks hardly guarantee successful choices. But if you’ve got higher picks, you’ve got a better chance of hitting.

As the chart at right shows, all four AFC South teams fall below the league average of 35.1: The Texans are at 35.4, the Jaguars 38.1, the Titans 39.3 and the Colts 46.8.

The Texans and Colts clearly suffer from losing Williams and Manning. The Jaguars have only four home-grown first-rounders on their team after a bunch of busts. The Titans' number inflates because Adam Jones and Vince Young didn’t stick around. The Colts have been consistently good, so they’ve consistently drafted late. Their averages are about to rise.

As the chart below shows, the top 10 highest-drafted players still in the AFC South average a draft spot of 11.1. The only division whose top 10 remaining home-grown draft picks were selected at a worse average position is the NFC East (13.9).

It's interesting that first-rounders remaining were drafted, on average, inside the top 12.

Last year, when Bill Polian was still running the Colts, he said he expected a higher hit rate when picking before and after 12th through a draft.

“I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20," he said. "If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven."

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info limited his search to the average draft position of first-rounders remaining with the team that drafted them (chart at right). This seems less telling to me as you eliminate first-rounders who busted, and first-rounders who have left.

Buffalo’s the high at 7.7, the Giants are the low at 25.2.

Jacksonville comes in at 14.0, Houston at 15.0, Tennessee at 19.4 and Indianapolis at 24.2.

Here are the top draft guys in the division now, pending the Colts' pick at No. 1, and the Jaguars' pick at No. 7.

• Texans receiver Andre Johnson, third overall
• Titans quarterback Jake Locker, eighth
• Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, eighth
• Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, 10th
• Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert, 10th
• Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, 11th
• Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, 11th
• Texans inside linebacker Brian Cushing, 15th
• Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan, 16th
• Titans safety Michael Griffin, 19th

The voting in a tournament-style field to select the next coverboy for Madden is off and running.

First-round voting runs to March 28.

The voting process is largely a popularity contest, but it comes with a twist. Because of the hype with the cover jinx, some fans do their best to make sure their team's candidate is eliminated as soon as possible.

Here are the AFC South candidates:

Texans runing back Arian Foster is a No. 3 seed, but draws a very tough matchup in new Jets quarterback Tim Tebow, a 13 seed.

Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew is a No. 3 seed who drew 13th-seeded Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowski.

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney is a ninth seed taking on eighth-seeded San Diego tight end Antonio Gates.

Titans running back Chris Johnson is a ninth seed taking on eighth-seeded Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch.