ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Titans in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): Jake Locker beats out Matt Hasselbeck in the training camp quarterback battle and never looks back. The second-year signal-caller provides huge energy for the Titans, alleviating concerns about his accuracy. He spreads the ball around to a nice stable of receivers, including Kenny Britt, who stays healthy all season; Nate Washington, who matches last year’s effort; and Kendall Wright, who catches on quickly and doesn’t look like a rookie.

With a running quarterback under center and all those receivers helping stretch the field, Chris Johnson gets room and has a big rebound year. Defenses have to decide: Stack the box and risk yielding big passes or keep numbers in coverage and see CJ break off chunks.

The pass rush fares far better than last season because Kamerion Wimbley proves to be a great signing -- one that's made even more so because the offense gives Tennessee leads that make opponents one-dimensional.

Mike Munchak is a coach of the year candidate in line for an extension as he takes the Titans to the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): They head into camp thinking they have two quarterbacks but wind up with one getting hurt and the other struggling. Britt’s not healthy, Wright’s not effective and Johnson doesn’t rebound from last year, prompting speculation that his time as a playmaker has passed.

With inconsistent offense and not a lot of points, too much falls on the defense.

Teams get them in nickel and attack the guy in the slot. The Titans roll through several options there and none of them prove nearly as effective as Cortland Finnegan was. Derrick Morgan can’t mount the healthy and productive pass-rush campaign the team was banking on and Wimbley is also unable to lead any sort of consistent charge at opposing quarterbacks.

The Titans finish the year talking about how much better Locker will be in 2013. They also enter an uncertain time with Munchak and his staff, which head into the final year of their contracts not having shown they warrant extensions.

John Clayton’s recent list of the NFL’s top 10 tight ends didn’t include anyone from the AFC South.

If he does a similar list in a year, will that change?

There are a lot of quality tight ends in the division, but they all carry questions. I don’t know if any can match the production of New England’s Rob Gronkowski or New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham, who are setting the standard for the new breed of players at the position.

Tennessee’s Jared Cook can be an extremely dangerous receiver. But through three seasons he’s been quite inconsistent. He finished with three very good games last year. That’s great and hopefully something to build on, but it’s hard not to wonder about why he wasn’t more effective in the rest of the games. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer seemed reluctant to really plan a game with a lot in it for Cook, who could fare better if Jake Locker is at quarterback rather than Matt Hasselbeck.

Houston’s Owen Daniels is an excellent pass catcher who can be a vital piece of the team’s offense. But he carries health questions. He played in every game last year but didn’t seem like the same guy he was before he missed five games in 2010 with a hamstring issue. He broke his hand in the Texans' first playoff game, but played with the injury in the second game. With the versatile Joel Dreessen gone, and the right side of the line being rebuilt, Daniels could be called on to block more.

Indianapolis will build a lot of its offense around Andrew Luck-to-Coby Fleener. Fleener, the team’s second-round pick, should be a primary target for his college teammate and could quickly earn a high ranking among the league’s tight ends.

Jacksonville’s Marcedes Lewis suffered a terrible drop-off in 2011 after a super-productive 2010 and a new contract. He was dealing with some difficult off-the-field issues, but needed to compartmentalize better to perform on Sundays. As part of a new offense, can he bounce back as a weapon or will the team be left to talk of his blocking?

Who will be regarded as the best after 16 games this fall and winter? Please chime in on our poll.

Houston Texans

Former Texans receiver Jacoby Jones welcomes his move to new surroundings in Baltimore. "Change is good in life," said Jones, whose muffed punt in last season's playoffs led to a Ravens touchdown in a game Baltimore won by seven. "It’s always good to have a breath of fresh air.”

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts appear to be feeling the absence of top draft pick Andrew Luck, who is missing this week's organized team activities and can't report to the team's facilities until after his final exams at Stanford. "For him to be here, taking snaps, building chemistry, the timing with the offense, timing with the receivers, all those kind of things ... it’s days lost,’’ coach Chuck Pagano told the Indianapolis Star's Mike Chappell of the quarterback. “It’s like money you never get back."

The team signed four more draft picks Wednesday: fifth-rounder Vick Ballard, sixth-rounder LaVon Brazill, and seventh-round selections Tim Fugger and Chandler Harnish.

Becoming head coach of the Colts "has been a whirlwind" Pagano says in a Q&A with Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Though he hasn't been cleared for contact, linebacker Paul Posluszny is participating in this week's organized team activities as he recovers from January shoulder surgery. "As far as working out, being functional, the strength, the stability -- everything is back," Posluszny, who expects to be at full strength for training camp, told the team's official site. "I’m still not allowed to be in contact, but other than that, it feels great. It feels normal to me."

The Jaguars don't mind practicing in the rain, writes Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert isn't taking his starting job for granted, writes Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

As expected, receiver Kenny Britt had minor surgery on his right knee in an effort to boost his return from torn ligaments suffered in September. The procedure will "probably accelerate his rehab," Titans general manager Ruston Webster told the Tennessean. Also in Jim Wyatt's notebook: The Titans have not had any contract talks with franchise player Michael Griffin, but the safety is working out with teammates. And third-round pick Mike Martin signed a four-year deal.

And after thoroughly examining other options at center, it looks like the Titans will go with one of their own this fall, writes Wyatt. Eugene Amano, the regular starter the past two seasons, will have to hold off Kevin Matthews, Fernando Velasco and rookie William Vlachos for the job, Webster said.

The Titans are in the running for former Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell, writes Terry McCormick.

Picking a starting quarterback can be a difficult proposition, but for the Titans, Webster says choosing between Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker could come down to a simple "gut feeling," writes Elliot Harrison of NFL.com.

Houston Texans

The Texans don't plan to hand the starting kicker's spot to rookie Randy Bullock, drafted out of Texas A&M in the fifth round. Rather, special-teams coordinator Joe Marciano told SportsRadio 610, Bullock will have to beat out veteran Shayne Graham. "He has to compete to make the team first," Marciano said, per the team's official site. "If he can beat Shayne out, then I think he’s going to be very good for us."

Defensive lineman Hebron Fangupo, a free-agent signee from BYU, hopes to impress coaches during upcoming rookie camps. “I’m excited to compete with a top-notch offense and defense,” Fangupo said. “I’m ready to learn all I can from coaches and players, and I believe being able to compete with such great players can help my game tremendously.”

Indianapolis Colts

Owner Jim Irsay, on Twitter, said he sees the franchise "taking shape" and that the Colts' defensive front seven "could impress" in the new 3-4 defensive scheme.

Indianapolis grabbed tight end Andre Smith off waivers from the Bears; he's expected to be part of new coordinator Bruce Arians' five-tight end offense, Brad Wells notes for Stampede Blue. The Colts also waived cornerback Mike Holmes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew, absent from the Jaguars' voluntary workouts, wants a contract extension, coach Mike Mularkey said. "I wish he was here. He knows we wish he was here," Mularkey said. "His teammates have talked to him about it. It's a personal decision. There's nothing I can do about it."

Tuesday's first day of organized team activities saw Jacksonville's first-round draft pick, receiver Justin Blackmon, going full speed with quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the first team, according to the Jags' official site. A sore foot that bothered Blackmon during rookie minicamps seems to have been helped by new cleats.

Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton apologized Tuesday for the club incident last month in which he suffered an eye injury that has kept him out of offseason workouts. Knighton said the vision in his injured eye has improved substantially. “It’s progressing a lot faster than they thought it would,” Knighton said. “I plan on being ready by training camp."

Tennessee Titans

A number of players, including quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, have signed on for coach Mike Munchak's "Strikes to Stop Diabetes" charity bowling event, set for June 14. The tournament will pair a Titans player or coach with a four-person team, with proceeds going to the American Diabetes Association, the team's site reports.

Center William Vlachos, a free-agent signee from Alabama, has been impressed with the Titans' O-line after doing some film study. “I've been watching film for a couple days and my jaw's on the floor,” Vlachos said. “They're just so physical, the effort they bring every play is outstanding.”

Jake Locker versus Matt Hasselbeck will be one of our most intriguing training camp story lines.

Titans coaches love Hasselbeck, who carried the torch for the message as they took over and brought an immediate, necessary and underrated dose of veteran leadership to the locker room.

Unless he’s horrible in July and August, I can’t see how he gets demoted from the starting job, especially when the Titans' first four games are against the Patriots, at the Chargers, against the Lions and at the Texans.

Coach Mike Munchak has said he thinks as things unfold the decision will be obvious. I believe, ultimately, it will take one of three things for Locker to get the starting job:

• A tremendous training camp and preseason paired with poor play by Hasselbeck.
• An injury to Hasselbeck.
• A gut feeling from Munchak and offensive coordinator Chris Palmer that it’s time to turn to the QB of the future.

I know many fans were excited about what they saw from Locker in limited action last year. I understand he’s the future. Yes, a lot of young quarterbacks have been given the keys to their teams and done well.

Still, none of them have really been in a situation where there team worked hard to get a reliable, proven veteran who can play on the roster the way the Titans did with Hasselbeck. They feel he delivered what they brought him in for, so they won't demote him easily or lightly. Reasonable or not, they feel a degree of loyalty to him, I believe.

Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean talked with Locker recently, and Locker said the sort of things a team wants to hear from its long-term guy.

“My goal is to earn the respect of the guys around me. Not to ask for it, but how you go out and work and how you prepare yourself, they can tell it means something to you …

“Just knowing a routine — I know what to expect now, somewhat. I know what to expect out of camp. I know what to expect out of our first road game, our first preseason game. It is not all new to me now, and there is a sense of comfort in that.”

What’s the catalyst for the Titans to turn to Locker? I don’t know what it is or when it arrives.

I do know the popular idea among fans is that the Titans should turn things over to the kid to get it over with and get him going, and move to the future in the present won’t be their rationale for the move when it comes.

If they don’t think he will give them as good a chance to win on the next Sunday on the schedule, I expect he’ll continue to sit unless Hasselbeck is hurt.

Six positions around the league that needed addressing didn’t get attention in the draft.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. gives them attention in this piece . A third of his areas of concern come out of the AFC South.

Here’s what he says, along with my thoughts:

Indianapolis Colts: Defense

Williamson: “Rome wasn't built in a day, and clearly the Colts decided to focus on surrounding Andrew Luck with a strong young supporting cast rather than building their defense, which will be transitioning from a fast-flowing Cover 2 scheme with smallish players at every position to a versatile scheme in the mold of Baltimore's defense that features power and strength. That is a very difficult transition to make. Indianapolis' first pick on the defensive side of the ball was made on Josh Chapman in Round 5. That pick presented great value for the long term, as Chapman has the makeup for nose tackle in the Colts' 3-4 or as a space-eating defensive tackle in their four-man front.

“But after that selection, Indianapolis used just one more pick on defense, grabbing Tim Fugger with the 214th pick overall. The Colts very well could have the worst defense in the NFL in 2012, but the reality is I can't be critical of what they did on draft day, as building around a young first-round quarterback is the correct decision. Rebuilding the defense will have to be a job for another day, but it will be a massive job indeed, as I see only a few players currently on the Colts' roster who can be projected as long-term answers in their new defensive scheme.”

My thoughts: I line up with Williamson’s thinking here. There is a lot of work to be done on defense, but the Colts simply didn’t have the free-agent spending money or the number of draft picks needed to sufficiently fill all the holes on both sides of the ball. So they started on offense. Next year I suspect it’ll be slanted the other way.

Tennessee Titans: Interior offensive line

Williamson: “The Titans didn't use one draft pick on an offensive lineman this year. Although they are set at both tackle spots, the interior of their offensive line needed to be upgraded. It was easy to blame Chris Johnson for his effort -- or lack thereof -- early in the 2011 season, but the blocking provided for him was far from ideal. Tennessee did add Steve Hutchinson to start at left guard. Hutchinson certainly isn't what he once was, especially as a run-blocker, but he does know every trick of the trade and should be a positive influence to this line and the offense in general.

“Interestingly enough, the Titans were as good collectively pass blocking as they were poor with run blocking. But my worries are at right guard and especially center, where Leroy Harris and Eugene Amano are the respective starters. Like the rest of their linemates, these two struggled to open holes for Johnson but did a fine job protecting Matt Hasselbeck. But I also contend that Hasselbeck is one of those quick-witted veteran quarterbacks who excels at masking problems with his protection.”

“If and when Jake Locker is going to take over behind center, Tennessee will need to effectively run the football. The Titans' offensive line depth is about as poor as any team's in the NFL, which made the lack of attention given to the guys up front even more curious, especially considering who Tennessee's head coach is.”

My thoughts: Mike Munchak and Bruce Matthews are Hall of Fame offensive linemen. They continue to get the benefit of the doubt. But if this line doesn’t run block substantially better early on in this season, that benefit of the doubt will start to evaporate and be replaced by a different idea -- that they are too close to guys like Amano and Harris to recognize the need to upgrade.

Grading drafts is one of those things -- a ton of people object to the concept, but then they read every word eagerly.

Acknowledging that, we share what we can from the ESPN.com Insider file of Mel Kiper .

Indianapolis Colts

Overall grade: A-

Kiper: "Think the Colts were concerned about building a supporting cast for Andrew Luck? They showed an unbelievable commitment to Luck, adding the top two tight ends in the draft in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen (Luck is used to two-TE sets), a burner in T.Y. Hilton who could become a gem in the slot and even got a possible late steal with Lavon Brazill way down the board. Josh Chapman hits a big need on the interior of that defensive line, and I've even heard really positive assessments of his health situation after he actually played some games without an ACL in 2011. Colleague Trent Dilfer noted that getting all these pass-catching pieces now is a good way to develop early chemistry and give Luck a chance to succeed earlier than we suspected given the state of the lineup going into the draft. I'd make this grade a good one with Luck alone. But the Colts did that one better. They had a plan and I came away impressed."

Jacksonville Jaguars

Overall grade: C

Kiper: "Give the Jaguars credit for hitting needs with their top two picks. Justin Blackmon isn't a guy you want to have to trade up for, but it didn't cost Jacksonville dearly, and the Jaguars had to find a receiver to complement Laurent Robinson. If they didn't get Blackmon or Michael Floyd, they would have been no closer to knowing if Blaine Gabbert can develop into a franchise quarterback. Andre Branch can start early. He's better when he goes wide -- he won't be able to rush through tackles -- but he's a viable guy for a team lacking any punch in the pass rush. Bryan Anger was the top punter on my board, but taking him in the third round, with several guys who profile as potential starting right tackles available? I didn't like that pick. The Jags also didn't adequately address the secondary. Their only pick at corner or safety was Mike Harris. He was my No. 27 corner prospect."

Tennessee Titans

Overall grade: C+

Kiper: "Tennessee goes into 2012 with a vastly improved group of wide receivers. I didn't see this as a top need, but with Kenny Britt back, the addition of Kendall Wright means Jake Locker has the necessary weapons to succeed if he starts the season. If you know you have the weapons, you can better assess if you truly have your franchise quarterback. I can see the strategy. Wright was no steal, however. I thought it was possible he could fall to Round 2. Zach Brown is an athlete, but he's not physical at all. He's better chasing down plays from the weak side than he will be taking on blocks. Taylor Thompson will be a fun one to watch as he converts to tight end. He caught passes there in high school, so it won't be a foreign concept. Coty Sensabaugh has a chance to stick, but I expected earlier urgency for a cornerback. Markelle Martin might be the best value pick for Tennessee at No. 190."

Houston Texans

Overall grade: B

Kiper: "I had Whitney Mercilus as a good fit at defensive end as high as No. 19 with the Bears, so he's a pretty good value at No. 26. He isn't Mario Williams, but the defense made a huge leap in 2011, and the Texans clearly want to make sure Wade Phillips has the tools he needs. He's not a great value at No. 68 overall, but I'm intrigued by the DeVier Posey pick. He had to sit out so many games last year I don't think scouts saw enough of him. He has really good hands, can create some matchup problems, and might be a little underrated in his ability to stretch the field. I also really like Keshawn Martin. He creates space and should stick with this team. Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks help the interior of that offensive line. I was surprised the Texans didn't get a linebacker. At one time I saw Jared Crick as a second-rounder. If he regains form, that's a good value in the fourth."

INDIANAPOLIS -- In Kendall Wright, the Titans add an explosive receiver who can go deep and should be a help to quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker.

Kenny Britt is still recovering from a torn ACL. But even before he’s healthy, I don’t hesitate to call Britt, Nate Washington, Wright, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins the best group of receivers the Titans have had since relocating to Tennessee in 1997.

I’ve written tonight about how the Colts have an obligation after adding Andrew Luck to give him weapons to work with.

This pick by Tennessee suggests the Titans feel a similar obligation to Locker, the quarterback they picked eighth overall a year ago.

In 2011, Washington blossomed in a way I figured was not possible for a seventh-year man. Some of that came from his willingness to embrace an opportunity to work out of the slot when the Titans went three-wide.

Going forward they will have some options as to where to line people up when three receivers are on the field. And it should be more often than ever since the run-and-shoot days of the Oilers.

Wright should be a home run hitter.

And a Britt-Wright pairing should give the Titans a duo that can pull them further in line with the mindset of today’s winning NFL formula, where things center a lot more on throwing it than running it.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

An NFL Network list of the top Heisman Trophy winners in the NFL ranked Tim Tebow over Earl Campbell, says Nick Matthews of the Houston Chronicle.

Free-agent kicker Neil Rackers met with the Redskins, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

Texans TV rounded up a big gang for a thorough video discussion about what the Texans might do in the 2012 draft.

Indianapolis Colts

Rate the Colts' need of a receiver for Andrew Luck as high, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Chappell’s looking forward to seeing Chuck Pagano lead a voluntary minicamp that kicks off today.

Luck will visit with David Letterman on draft day.

A trading card company has filed suit against Luck, says Matthews.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union sets up the Jaguars' draft room, running through who’s at the main table. Shad Khan has room for family members at the team’s primary table. I don’t know how many owners have family members with them in such a setting. But I know how many should: none.

More on how it’s likely to be difficult, or impossible, to trade out of No. 7, from Ganguli.

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com rates Melvin Ingram as the best pass-rusher in the draft. That’d make him ideal for the Jaguars if he’s there at No. 7.

Tennessee Titans

Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker are ready to compete for the Titans’ starting quarterback job, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

The Tennessean’s multimedia draft preview looks at every possible pick at No. 20.

Wyatt reviews the Titans’ roster, position-by-position, with what they’ve got and what they need.

Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

Pass-catching tight ends are at a premium in the draft, says Sam Khan of the Houston Chronicle.

What do the Texans need on offense and who might fit? Lance Zierlein of the fan blog at the Houston Chronicle takes a look.

Indianapolis Colts

Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star trusts Tom Moore’s judgment, and Moore likes Andrew Luck a lot.

David Thornton spent his career as a linebacker with the Indianapolos Colts and Tennessee Titans. He was recently hired by the Colts' new regime as their new player development coordinator. Phillip B. Wilson of the Star looks at Thornton's ability to make frinds and impact people.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars added veteran receiver Lee Evans with a one-year deal, says Tania Ganguli of the Jacksonville Times-Union. A friend in Baltimore told me Evans showed absolutely nothing during his one season with the Ravens. But I like the signing, which I am sure costs very little. If he bounces back, he’ll be a great add, and if he doesn't, well, they shouldn’t have been counting on much.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans and a lot of others believe Jake Locker was the right choice at the right time, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Titans safety Jordan Babineaux and his brother have a film production company that has a movie coming out, says Terry McCormick of the National Football Post.

Ben in Houston writes: In the chat yesterday someone asked about Coby Fleener to the Texans. I'm not busting your chops at all, but you read it as the Titans (understandably so when you've been speed-reading on a computer screen for awhile), and answered accordingly saying he wouldn't go as the 20th pick. But what do you think about Fleener to the Houston Texans at 26? I know Wright is the name everyone's putting out there, but Fleener is 6' 6", ran a sub-4.5 40, and the Texans love to run two tight sets when they have the personnel. Additionally with his height and speed, I don't see why he couldn't be considered a deep threat or even just a great complement to Andre if you wanted to put him in the slot. I know there is plenty of info I'm not privy to, but I'm interested in what your thoughts are and what additional insight you might be willing to impart. Thanks

Paul Kuharsky: It’s certainly possible. But I suspect one of those receivers -- or someone at another position -- will be judged more worthy of No. 26 than Fleener will be. The Texans have spent a lot of picks on tight ends. If they have Owen Daniels, James Casey (who may be working as a fullback at least some or could get to return to being more of a tight end) and Garrett Graham they could be OK at the spot.

The buzz on Fleener grew at Stanford’s pro day, but there wasn’t too much before that. He certainly looks like he can be a nice outlet for any quarterback and would work nicely in what the Texans do.

vallenii from Florida writes: Is it possible that the NFL would/will consider allowing QB's & WR's early camp access (like MLB does with pitchers and catchers)?

Paul Kuharsky: The players worked hard in negotiations last year to trim down the offseason. I can’t foresee them giving back a big “gain” in the name of certain players reporting early.

Greg in West Nashville writes: Titans GM Ruston Webster's main role is to make decisions to improve the team and he didn't feel Peyton Manning was worth pursuing until Bud Adams made him. Webster wants to shore up the defense. The Giants and Patriots were ranked behind the Titans in defense last year, but they both have elite QB's. Don't you think the Titans are behind the times in their way of thinking and will continue to be an 8-8 franchise?

Paul Kuharsky: Well, Manning chase aside, the Titans went and got their QB last year in Jake Locker. Now it’s a matter of when he takes over.

Defense and run games aren’t the surefire route to success they once were. But that doesn’t mean there are not multiple paths to winning.

My preference is what’s worked lately: Elite QB and weapons paired up with a big pass rush.

The AFC South is now a fullback division, unfortunately, with a philosophical mindset that may be behind the times.

Ian in College Station, Texas, writes: I just read the "Frustrated Texan Fan" article and thought your response was brilliant. You are truly one of the most unbiased writer at ESPN (in my own opinion). Keep up the good work!

Paul Kuharsky: Check’s in the mail, thanks. I need to keep your email handy, there are a lot of people I’d like to point to you.

With the departure of Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the AFC South lost two overall No. 1 picks.

The loss of star power led me to wonder about what our teams have left in terms of high-ranking draft picks, and how they compare to one another and the rest of the league.

John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked at the average draft slot of the top 10 highest-drafted players -- how ever deep that goes beyond the first round -- still on each team.

Obviously, where a team drafts is based on how it finishes. Certainly higher draft picks hardly guarantee successful choices. But if you’ve got higher picks, you’ve got a better chance of hitting.

As the chart at right shows, all four AFC South teams fall below the league average of 35.1: The Texans are at 35.4, the Jaguars 38.1, the Titans 39.3 and the Colts 46.8.

The Texans and Colts clearly suffer from losing Williams and Manning. The Jaguars have only four home-grown first-rounders on their team after a bunch of busts. The Titans' number inflates because Adam Jones and Vince Young didn’t stick around. The Colts have been consistently good, so they’ve consistently drafted late. Their averages are about to rise.

As the chart below shows, the top 10 highest-drafted players still in the AFC South average a draft spot of 11.1. The only division whose top 10 remaining home-grown draft picks were selected at a worse average position is the NFC East (13.9).

It's interesting that first-rounders remaining were drafted, on average, inside the top 12.

Last year, when Bill Polian was still running the Colts, he said he expected a higher hit rate when picking before and after 12th through a draft.

“I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20," he said. "If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven."

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info limited his search to the average draft position of first-rounders remaining with the team that drafted them (chart at right). This seems less telling to me as you eliminate first-rounders who busted, and first-rounders who have left.

Buffalo’s the high at 7.7, the Giants are the low at 25.2.

Jacksonville comes in at 14.0, Houston at 15.0, Tennessee at 19.4 and Indianapolis at 24.2.

Here are the top draft guys in the division now, pending the Colts' pick at No. 1, and the Jaguars' pick at No. 7.

• Texans receiver Andre Johnson, third overall
• Titans quarterback Jake Locker, eighth
• Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, eighth
• Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, 10th
• Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert, 10th
• Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, 11th
• Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, 11th
• Texans inside linebacker Brian Cushing, 15th
• Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan, 16th
• Titans safety Michael Griffin, 19th

It’s safe to presume the Colts, Texans and Jaguars weren’t upset to learn that Peyton Manning is heading out of the AFC South.

Indianapolis won’t have to face its former longtime icon as an opponent twice a season. And the Texans and Jaguars would choose to plan for and play Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker over Manning, for sure.

Houston will see Manning once, as Houston is the only AFC South team that has the Broncos on its schedule. The Texans will play at Denver in 2012.

While Manning sat out last season, he’s been a fixture in the division since realignment in 2002 and the division’s singular star for its entire lifespan.

His departure means there’s room at the top, and it means three teams won’t have to find a way through or around him to win their division and get into the playoffs.

Reading the coverage...

Houston Texans

Why fan-target receiver Jacoby Jones won’t get cut, from Nick Matthews of the Houston Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Star rounds up all the big links on Peyton Manning.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The team is interested in free agent defensive end Mark Anderson, who’s being pursued by the Titans as well, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times Union.

Tennessee Titans

How Jake Locker can strike it rich even if he spends the next few years on the bench behind Manning, from John Glennon.

The Colts' release of Peyton Manning will leave a huge void in our division.

Without him in the AFC South, how does a star system that’s revolved around him for some time now align?

We’ll make two large presumptions here -- Mario Williams will be out of the division and Andrew Luck will be in it.

Here’s my order, with comments from Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.:

1. Arian Foster, Texans running back.

Production: An average of 88.5 yards rushing and 126 total yards per game, with 33 touchdowns in 35 games. That’s tremendous. Last season in the Texans' second playoff game he ran for 132 yards against a highly touted Ravens defense in Baltimore.

Personality: He’s a complex, smart guy whose interests extend well beyond football. And that’s a model a lot more people in the league should follow. He’s been the most underpaid player in the league over the past two seasons, and rather than gripe about it he offered context, showed patience and just got rewarded with a five-year contract.

Popularity: It’s giant and growing in Houston and nationally. He tweets with fans. And he's unafraid to take on big topics in social media, like his perspective on fantasy football or sharing an injury X-ray.

Williamson: “Perfect piece for this running game -- with [Adrian] Peterson injured, could be the top running back in all of football. Very versatile. GREAT all-around player on the best team in division.”

2. Andre Johnson, Texans receiver

Production: In 122 career games, he’s averaged 79 receiving yards a game and 13.7 yards a catch. He’s scored 52 touchdowns and led the NFL twice in receptions and twice in yardage while earning a spot on the All-Pro first team twice. He is a willing and effective blocker who combines size and speed.

Personality: Has done a good deal to help take the diva out of the receiver position, a trend that had reached some epic proportions. Soft spoken but strong willed, he’s shown himself to be accountable. A rock and a leader for a team that took too long to surround him with playoff talent.

Popularity: He’s absolutely beloved in Houston and qualifies as the all-time face of the young franchise. For a star of his size, he seems accessible and approachable, and appreciative that people want access and approachability.

Williamson: “With the body of work, he’s not far removed from being the best wide receiver in the NFL. He easily could rebound from injury to regain such status.”

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars running back

Production: Despite facing stacked boxes throughout his career, Jones-Drew has plowed for 73.7 yards a game and 4.6 yards a carry. He’s also been a solid receiver with at least 34 catches a season. In 93 games, he’s scored 73 touchdowns.

Personality: He’s a fun guy who’s well liked by team executives, coaches and teammates. But he can be defensive and take things way too personally. He maintains a list of reporters whom he feels slighted him, which is a bit over the top for a star of his magnitude.

Popularity: Very much the face of the franchise -- many would say too much so. He’s an affable guy who’s very well liked in Jacksonville and has built a national profile thanks largely to his fantasy football production and a regular gig on Sirius NFL Radio centered on the fantasy game.

Williamson: “No running back had a better 2011 season than MJD. He does it all with ZERO around him. A pro’s pro.”

4. Andrew Luck, presumed Colts quarterback

Production: In three seasons as the starter at Stanford, he completed 67 percent of his passes with 82 touchdowns and 22 interceptions despite not being surrounded by great weapons. His football IQ and accuracy are factors that make him such a big-time prospect. He’s underrated as an athlete who can run and jump and do a lot of things that may not be primary skills for a pocket passer but will be big factors in a well-rounded game.

Personality: He seems like a nice enough guy and is close to an engineering degree from Stanford, which tells you he’s quite smart. He stayed in school for his senior year, which showed confidence that he would be better positioned coming out after another year of school. It also suggested some perspective on football.

Popularity: He’s a huge star coming out being so strongly the consensus No. 1 pick. He has a regular-guy demeanor that will serve him well as he inherits Manning’s spot with the Colts. It may come a bit more slowly than most No. 1 picks because of that context, but if he plays as predicted, it’ll come.

Williamson: “It is all about the future/potential/hope ... and that is a terrific story. Of course, following in Manning’s footsteps factors in as well. An exceptional and rare prospect.”

5. Chris Johnson, Titans running back

Production: It dropped off in a major way last season after he got the big contract extension he was looking for. Even with a down year, he’s averaged 89.6 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards a carry and he’s scored 42 touchdowns in 63 games. Does he have the same speed he showed in his first three seasons?

Personality: In a word, brash. He’s made big predictions and the down year hasn’t stopped that. He recently tweeted that he will lead the league in rushing next season. Some view him as selfish -- and it’s a fair idea to examine as his effort was questionable at times. You won’t find a more confident guy, and he may like the star life a little bit too much.

Popularity: He was huge when he topped 2,000 rushing yards in 2009, and with 12 touchdowns in 2010 he was still one of the league’s top backs. But Titans fans (and fantasy owners who drafted him at or near the top) loved him less as Tennessee didn’t run nearly as effectively as usual in 2011.

Williamson: “We have certainly seen what a difference-maker Johnson can be. And actually, I expect his situation to improve a great deal next season with an improved interior offensive line and getting Kenny Britt back in the lineup, but there were just too many runs in 2011 where Johnson lacked competitiveness.”

Two notes:

• I struggled to choose between Johnson and Houston linebacker Brian Cushing for the last spot. But it’s hard for a defensive player to outrank a guy who has the ball all the time. And fair or not, Cushing has a dent in his national reputation because of his four-game suspension in 2010.
• Williamson said Britt and Titans quarterback Jake Locker could press for inclusion soon and I agree. For Britt it’s about health; For Locker it’s about opportunity and production.