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Despite talk of grabbing the best player available, it’s funny how often needs and picks seem to line up.

Of 31 picks, I count four that don’t technically qualify as addressing needs: Jaguars fifth-round linebacker Brandon Marshall, Titans fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson, Jaguars sixth-round cornerback Mike Harris and Colts seventh-round quarterback Chandler Harnish.

We saw the Texans replenish at outside linebacker, on the offensive line and at kicker and add to their options at receiver. The Colts loaded up on help for No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck -- seven of their other nine picks bring offensive players to Indianapolis . Jacksonville addressed its big needs right out of the chute, then made a couple of odd selections. Tennessee didn’t take two players at the same position.

BEST MOVE

The Jaguars came into the offseason in dire need of upgraded weaponry for Blaine Gabbert. They started last season with wide receiver Jason Hill as a starter, and he was cut before the season ended. Mike Thomas was miscast as a top-of-the-group guy when he should be a No. 3. Cecil Shorts showed he needs a lot of time to develop.

Mike Mularkey hired a solid receiver coach, Jerry Sullivan. He’s a tremendous upgrade from Johnny Cox, who was quickly fired after Jack Del Rio was dismissed during the 2011 season. Free agency brought Laurent Robinson, who should help, and Lee Evans, who’d be gravy if he can revive his career.

The Jaguars successfully sold pundits on the idea they’d be trading down, then only gave up a fourth-rounder to move up from No. 7 to No. 5 to draft Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon. He’s a dynamic receiver who can catch balls outside his frame and cause matchup problems.

Outside of Luck, no team in the division got a player who can cure an ill better than Blackmon can fix what ails the Jacksonville offense. Now it’s on Gabbert to show he can effectively get the ball to the new star receiver.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Titans didn’t touch a defensive end until Scott Solomon in the seventh round, and they didn’t add an offensive lineman at all. And pass rush and run blocking were two areas that qualified as weaknesses at the end of last season.

Tennessee hosted Scott Wells, Chris Myers, Jeff Saturday and Dan Koppen and saw all four sign elsewhere. On Saturday, coach Mike Munchak made those meetings sound like information-gathering get-togethers rather than courtships, a stance that’s pretty insulting to veterans who wouldn’t waste time making visits without the possibility of a contract.

The defense of incumbent starters on the interior -- Eugene Amano and Leroy Harris -- has entered a new round now. Munchak said the team felt no “dire need there” and that “we have guys we can win with.” Still, watch for a key undrafted addition or free agent or two.

The Titans added one big piece this offseason to its insufficient pass rush in the form of free-agent end Kamerion Wimbley, who was a cap casualty in Oakland. He may provide a big boost but also probably shouldn’t be on the field for every play. Tennessee’s only attempt to bolster itself on the edges came with the 211th pick, end Scott Solomon from Rice.

The Titans face a pretty good slate of quarterbacks this season. Those passers may have a lot of time to throw.

MOST SURPRISING PICK

We hit it hard Saturday night, but the Jaguars' selection of Bryan Anger in the third round was a baffler. Yes, the team will benefit from a big leg and stands to gain field position.

But Jacksonville overrated special teams’ impact by deciding to draft Anger so early rather than addressing other needs where it could have selected a player with a chance to play.

The Jaguars have a recent history of messing up at the position, and teams that struggle with stability at a spot are prone to overreach in an effort to correct it.

I believe that’s a good piece of what happened here. They could have gotten him or a punter who still would have been a big upgrade later.

The Jaguars found Terrance Knighton, Derek Cox and Will Rackley in the third round in Gene Smith’s previous three drafts. They are all starters who affect games more than a punter can.

They can rationalize this pick. And we can stridently disagree.

FILE IT AWAY

Six receivers came into the division -- Blackmon, Kendall Wright in Tennessee, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill in Indianapolis and DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin in Houston. That’s two first-rounders, two third-rounders, a fourth-rounder and a sixth-rounder.

The countermeasures?

Just two incoming cornerbacks -- Titans fourth-rounder Coty Sensabaugh and Jaguars sixth-rounder Harris.

Secondary depth could be severely tested by good quarterbacks and receivers, especially when the division faces the NFC North and the high-powered passing offenses of Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago.

The Colts have no proven corners beyond Jerraud Powers. The Texans lost Jason Allen, who played a reasonable amount. The Titans need to unearth a new nickelback now that Cortland Finnegan is gone. Only the Jaguars have fortified the spot, adding two-time Super Bowl winner Aaron Ross, presumably getting Cox and Rashean Mathis back healthy and drafting Harris.

The AFC South is a big running back division, but it’s become more equipped to sling it and may not have the people needed to cover offenses with a lot of downfield weapons.

“It tells you that this is a wide-open league, the offensive focus is on scoring points probably more than ever,” Titans general manager Ruston Webster said. “It’s becoming more of a quarterback-wide receiver league probably every day.”

Darrick Seymore from Jacksonville, Fla., writes: The way our new owner, Mr. Khan, rolled into Jacksonville, I was expecting some really flashing things to be happening by now. Not sure if this is the quiet before the storm or something else. What's your take in the apparent lack of activity here in J-Ville?

Paul Kuharsky: Shad Khan is not about flashing things, so far, and that’s fine. Certainly he’s got a general manager and a coach who are not flashy.

Teams who are about flashing, or flashy things, generally don’t fare well. Who’s the last team that won the offseason and the Super Bowl? (That said, Khan could have tempered the big talk about being "all in." It made agents expect that GM Gene Smith was going to be out there with rolls of money, shopping.)

The Jaguars could have done better in free agency, but they retained their key people, added a receiver they like in Laurent Robinson, got a backup/alternative quarterback in Chad Henne and hope for a big draft.

I don’t know what storm you can still anticipate this long after the top free agents are gone.

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Graham from Montreal writes: With Koppen re-signing with the Patriots, what's the Titans' potential opportunities to improve at center in free agency? Is it more likely that we'll see a middle-round pick being used to try to develop a center and maybe also to be used as a long-snapper?

Paul Kuharsky: There was never any evidence the Titans had any interest in Dan Koppen after they lost out on Chris Myers, Scott Wells and even Jeff Saturday.

I think your scenario is the likely one now. It’s quite possible the Titans will go forward with Eugene Amano still in place, or with a rookie or Fernando Velasco; Kevin Matthews could even fight his way into the lineup.

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Jonathan from Fort Wayne, Ind., writes: Find it interesting you question why Irsay would want to be coy with the Luck pick. While I agree it's obvious based on what I've read/heard that the Colts will select Luck, Irsay not sharing has incentive - it keeps the Colts in the spotlight for a little bit longer. After the draft, the Colts will quickly fall from a team that garnered a ton of press the past few years to another struggling team with a promising future. For the first game or two the Colts will once again be thrust in the spotlight as people judge Luck. So, the team needs as much press as possible right now. I think it is mostly a PR move to keep analysts (even if they are 99.99% sure) to at least discuss the decision and the team. Even more so now with the CBA because the team won't need extra time to negotiate the contract. After this draft the Colts won't be talked about very much for awhile based on a roster that should struggle, even with a possible once-in-a-generation quarterback.

Paul Kuharsky: As I’ve written, the team isn’t obligated to reveal anything and can milk it if it likes.

The Colts aren't getting any huge public-relations advantage leading up to the draft that they wouldn’t be getting if the verdict was made public early that they are taking Andrew Luck. When Bill Polian is out there saying it's who team owner Jim Irsay wants, Irsay being coy doesn't really work.

Either way, I would have written this piece that was published Friday, for example. They didn't gain anything from mystery there. And there really is no mystery.

April 26 -- the first day of the NFL draft -- is going to wind up being more about who goes third and what happens with Ryan Tannehill than it will be about Luck or Robert Griffin III, because there is no mystery about them.

Interest in Luck will last all season, no matter how bad the Colts are.

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Matt from Berkeley, Calif., writes: What do you think of Jags fullback Greg Jones? He's been a low-profile player at a low-profile position, but I've only ever read positive things about him - especially from opposing defensive coordinators. Today, I realized he'll be remembered (if people really remember fullbacks) for blocking for both Fred Taylor and MJD. Taylor arguably had a HoF career - at least by the numbers, and MJD is on pace to make an argument as well. What other positions in football have silent contributors stalwartly working to help their team week after week? We as fans often miss such players between the highlights.

Paul Kuharsky: He’s a good player, but Jack Del Rio’s love of him was overboard and he’s been dinged a lot in his career.

The difference between an average fullback and a really good fullback – which Jones is usually rated as being – is not that extreme or significant to me or to most. While the AFC South is now a division with four fullback teams, I prefer teams that have more versatile tight ends serve as the extra blockers.

I wouldn’t exactly call fullback an under-recognized spot, either. When a back has a big season like Maurice Jones-Drew did, the fullback typically gets his accolades. Vonta Leach certainly reaped huge benefits (in a big free-agent contract from Baltimore) after Arian Foster broke through in Houston.

There are a ton of offensive linemen and interior defensive lineman who do dirty work on all or most of the snaps – as compared to the typical third of the snaps of a fullback – with even less notoriety.

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Bobby from Buffalo, N.Y., writes: Just a general NFL question here. If a team with no first-round picks signs a player with a first-round tender such as Mike Wallace, what do they give up or is it even allowed?

Paul Kuharsky: You have to have your original first-round pick to give up. You can’t sign a guy with a first-round tender to an offer sheet unless you have it or make a deal to get it back.

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» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

We didn’t expect any of them to return to the Colts, but official departures are still of note.

Three former Indianapolis offensive linemen are moving on.

ESPN reports Jeff Saturday has a deal with Green Bay. Ryan Diem is retiring. Mike Pollak has signed with Carolina. It didn't appear the Colts had any interest in re-signing any of them. Saturday and Diem were instrumental pieces to the team's success during the Peyton Manning era.

The Colts are in an offensive line transition. They’re going bigger, and they are going newer.

Too many people presumed Saturday would automatically wind up with Manning in Denver.

So far, Denver's notable addition from the AFC South wasn’t one of Manning’s former Colts tight ends -- Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme -- but Houston free agent Joel Dreessen.

The Titans suffer two shots here, as they were courting both Saturday (with center a big need) and Dreessen (with tight end not nearly as big an issue.)

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are more likely to win the Super Bowl than the Broncos with Peyton Manning says Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

The Texans will face the Manning-led Broncos in 2012 in Denver, says John McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Manning’s choice of the Broncos is a perfect one for making a Super Bowl run, says Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star, who covered the John Elway Broncos once upon a time. “I'm happy for him. Thrilled. Overjoyed that Manning, who you hope has something left after all those neck procedures, will get a chance to win some more Super Bowls before his Pro Football Hall of Fame career ends. This is the perfect fit."

The Colts won’t have a chance to play Manning this season, says Phil Richards of the Star.

The Star collected reaction to the Manning move.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars aren’t commenting or offering indications about their interest or lack of it in Tim Tebow. “Their front office did not have interest in Tebow then, and indications are that they still do not have interest in him. So far, Jaguars owner Shahid Khan has taken a hands-off approach with the team’s football operations,” writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Don’t add Tebow just to sell tickets, advised Gene Frenette. That would be a foolish move, I agree.

Tennessee Titans

“I absolutely was going to pay him,” Bud Adams told Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean. “And I was going to pay him to be with us until he was ready to be buried. And I was going to take care of him. I was going to spend a lot of money on him. But he didn’t want that. He wanted to be somewhere else, and I can’t do anything about that.”

”As disappointing as the news may be, at least this franchise finally sat down at the adult table and tried to pull off a major deal,” writes David Climer of The Tennessean. “For all the people that have criticized Bud Adams over the years for being cheap or out of touch, give it a rest. He’s the one that insisted the Titans enter the Manning sweepstakes. For all we know, they were a close second.”

The team has visits scheduled with center Jeff Saturday, tight end Joel Dreessen, and cornerbacks Tracy Porter and William Gay, says Wyatt.

Manning is no longer a great deep-ball thrower, says Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report.

The Colts' recrafting of their offensive line group is now two deep. A day after trading for Winston Justice, the team has a deal with free agent Mike McGlynn, according to a tweet from McGlynn.

But while Justice looks to be a favorite to start at right tackle, McGlynn played sparingly for Cincinnati last season, mostly because of injury and Bobbie Williams.

Justice started the Bengals final three regular-season games and their playoff game at right guard, and was also listed as the backup to Kyle Cook at center.

Four of the Colts' top five interior linemen from the end of last season are not under contract: center Jeff Saturday, guard Mike Pollak, guard Jamey Richard and Ryan Diem, who shifted inside last year after a long tenure as the right tackle.

Ben Ijalana, who missed his rookie year with an early knee injury, could be in the guard mix going forward, particularly if Justice proves solid at tackle.

Will McGlynn be more than depth?

We’ll have to see who else Indianapolis winds up with and how they all play.

The money isn’t mine. I’m not certain about what you can afford and what the market will pay when free agency opens on March 13. I’m not positive about your plans and schemes.

But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.

And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:

1) Tell Peyton Manning thanks for everything. Say we had every intention of you playing out your career with the Colts, but the chances of all these elements aligning -- his health questions, a new GM and coach, the top pick and Andrew Luck’s availability -- make it impossible. Maximize your graciousness.

2) Assessing what will be available in the draft, or a relatively inexpensive free agent or two you’d like to grab, then franchise either defensive end Robert Mathis or receiver Reggie Wayne accordingly. Both will have great chances to move on in free agency, and you can’t afford to move forward without them, either. You can make a case either way -- Mathis would be a great piece in a transformation to a 3-4; Wayne would reliably be in place to convert third downs for a young quarterback.

3) Convince defensive end Dwight Freeney to sign an extension. You have to drive down his $19 million-plus cap hit and his $14 million-plus base salary for 2012. But cutting him would be awfully painful, especially if Mathis is getting to free agency. If Freeney has to go because of cost, then Mathis has to be tagged and Wayne is likely lost.

4) Look for cost savings with these players: Tight end Dallas Clark ($7.32 million cap hit, $4.53 million base), middle linebacker Gary Brackett ($7.4 million cap hit, $5 million base), running back Joseph Addai ($4.3 million cap hit, $2.9 million base), and safety Melvin Bullitt ($3.7 million cap hit, $2.4 million base). Brackett and Bullitt are now injury prone and I don't know if you can count on them. But just cutting them won’t necessarily save money as accelerated bonus cost could produce a cost approaching their scheduled cap numbers. Same with Addai, who may not fit with a new run philosophy.

5) Let receiver Pierre Garcon walk. The guy is a blazer who will make a good amount of big plays, but he’s not guaranteed reliable in big moments. The sort of drops and gaffes he’s capable of can really mess with a team trying to build confidence and he'll be overpaid by the market.

6) Try to get Jeff Saturday to sign up for one more year. He’d be a great influence on Luck and a young team and could help get a group of young linemen ready to protect the new centerpiece and to block for a newly emphasized run game.

7) Re-sign reserve quarterback Dan Orlovsky, tight end Jacob Tamme and receiver Anthony Gonzalez cheaply if you can. Orlovsky can spot start if need be and it’ll be difficult to find a quality backup who wants to come to be No. 2 to Luck. Tamme has quality hands. Gonzalez was highly rated not too long ago and a doghouse visit under the last regime will make him affordable. It’s worth trying to keep them around at reasonable cost and they are unlikely to draw significant offers elsewhere.

8) Let three other free agents walk: linebacker Philip Wheeler, guard Mike Pollack and tackle Ryan Diem.

Who played the most on offense in the AFC South in 2011?

Here’s a rundown, with percentage of offensive snaps played:

QB – Matt Hasselbeck, Titans, 90.4

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, 74.93

FB – Greg Jones, Jaguars, 38.71

WR – Reggie Wayne, Colts, 98.8

WR – Pierre Garcon, Colts, 95.5

TE – Owen Daniels, Texans, 79.13

C – Brad Meester, Jaguars, 100

G – Wade Smith, Texans, 100

G – Uche Nwaneri, Jaguars, 100

G – Jake Scott, Titans, 100

T – Jeff Linkenbach, Colts, 100

T – Michael Roos, Titans, 100

A few notes:

Chris Johnson was the only back other than MJD to play as much as 60 percent of his team’s snaps (70.23).

Jones was the only fullback to play at least a third of his team’s snaps. Houston’s James Casey was next in fullback playing time, working 32.39 percent of the Texans’ snaps.

Wayne missed just 12 snaps and Garcon only 44 for the Colts. They are both heading for unrestricted free agency, and if both are lost that’s a lot of playing time to fill in. The next biggest number for a receiver in the division? The Titans' Nate Washington at 82.9.

Daniels didn’t beat out Jacksonville’s Marcedes Lewis (76.75) by much. I’d bet guessing the No. 3 tight end would be tough. Prove me wrong in the comments section below.

Two other offensive linemen narrowly missed 100 percent: Titans guard Eugene Amano missed only one play and Colts center Jeff Saturday was off the field for just six.

With the offseason in full swing, let’s take a look at one major question facing each AFC South team as it begins preparations for the 2012 season:

HOUSTON TEXANS

Can they keep Mario Williams?

He’s an incredible pass-rushing talent most every team would love to have. Yet the Texans might be in a position where they have no choice but to watch him move on as an unrestricted free agent.

They should have had planned better and not have allowed themselves to be in a position where the franchise tag is an impossibility. They cannot tag the defensive end-turned-outside linebacker for $22 million, so they either have to sign him or allow him to test the market. He talks affectionately about the Texans and what the franchise did for him, and that leads some to be optimistic about the team’s chances to hold on to him.

But once he’s out there and being courted, things can change in a big way with big dollars on the table.

Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed are great talents, but they’d be better, and the entire defense would be better, if Williams were part of it.

It would be difficult for the Texans to watch Williams lift someone else's defense and put up big sack numbers. He’s also been hurt a lot, however, and if that continues, maybe there won’t be so much regret if he moves on.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

How does the Peyton Manning saga sort out?

It’s widely presumed the team is parting ways with the four-time MVP quarterback.

It would have been impossible to imagine a year ago. But several unlikely developments have all come together at the same time -- the uncertainty surrounding Manning’s arm; the team’s ability to draft Andrew Luck; the dismissal of Bill Polian and Chris Polian in the front office as well as coach Jim Caldwell and most of his staff; the hiring of new general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano; other core players (Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, Robert Mathis) reaching the end of their contracts.

The soap opera has been long and drawn out. It needs to be resolved so the focus on the Colts can be about those new leaders, Grigson and Pagano, the messages they want to send, the guys they want on the roster, and the systems they intend to run.

Owner Jim Irsay has been sloppy as he’s tried to gain upper ground in a public relations battle with Manning, who has not comported himself perfectly, either, as he’s tried to manipulate the story. But for the health of the organization and for the benefit of Manning going forward, this thing needs closure.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Who can they add to help Blaine Gabbert?

No team should do more to assess the free-agent market for wide receivers than the Jaguars, who had a terrible, insufficient group last season.

Mike Thomas can be a good slot guy, but if the Jaguars really want to maximize Gabbert’s chances of success in his second season, he needs his primary targets to be much better. Jacksonville has plenty of cap room, and a new staff can sell someone like Vincent Jackson on the chance to be an unquestioned No. 1 and be paid like it.

Beyond the people he will be throwing to and the ones who will be protecting him, Gabbert’s new coaches will be a big piece to his progress. Can coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson get Gabbert more confident in the pocket and better able to focus on his reads than on the people around him?

The team has talked of having a better veteran backup behind Gabbert to help him. The Jags need that guy to be a safety net, too. It’s possible the 2012 Jaguars can compete for a playoff spot, provided they get sufficient play from their quarterback.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Can they become more of a playmaking defense?

The Titans got great contributions from several rookie defenders -- middle linebacker Colin McCarthy and defensive tackles Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug will be a big part of things going forward. So will strongside linebacker Akeem Ayers, who wasn’t as productive in his rookie season as the Titans hoped.

Will the team be able to find more playmakers to fill out their defense? Odds are cornerback Cortland Finnegan will depart as a free agent, and although the team hopes to re-sign Jordan Babineaux as one starting safety, it should be looking for an alternative to another of its free agents, Michael Griffin.

The Titans would be well served to find someone with more upside as a playmaker in Griffin’s spot. And although they still expect big things from Derrick Morgan, it’s again time to find a consistent pass-rushing defensive end.

They need to rush better from everywhere, which is why they hired Keith Millard as a multi-position pass-rush coach.

Getting bigger up front didn’t necessarily pay off the way they planned. Stopping the run first was a theme, and they finished 24th in run defense.

Kelly in Jacksonville, Fla., writes: What do you think about the idea that Jacksonville would sign Laurent Robinson? He is certainly a young receiver, that has maybe already been through the growing pains of transferring into the NFL. Also, even though he isn't considered a top tier guy, he would likely come at a much more reasonable price.

Paul Kuharsky: I like Robinson for the reasons you say. Just not as the lead guy. Sign a big-time guy who’s more proven as the No. 1 (Vincent Jackson would be my choice) and grab Robinson as No. 2, and I think that would be great.

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Adam Brune in Ocean Springs, Miss., writes: In your opinion what are the chances the titans would bring Haynesworth back to Tennessee?

Paul Kuharsky: Zero. We asked Mike Munchak about it on the radio in Nashville right after the news Haynesworth had been released came out, and he said as much.

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Fred Scheppele from Colorado Springs, Colo., writes: Why have so many jumped on the bandwagon that Peyton would not want to stay because this team is not competitive? It is basically the same team that was winning 10 and 12 games with him at the helm, and they should be able to do the same if he comes back healthy. Maybe even better, since they now have higher draft choices to bring better talent in next year. I just don't get it.

Paul Kuharsky: It’s not basically the same team at all.

For starters, it will be constructed by Ryan Grigson and coached by Chuck Pagano. Those are massive changes.

Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon could all be gone. Three of those four are getting up there. With or without Manning, the secondary is currently horrifically thin. The offensive line had a lot of guys who will have to function in a new system. Dallas Clark and Gary Brackett are coming off big injuries again, and Dwight Freeney counts $19 million against the cap.

There are more questions around this team than any team Manning quarterbacked since very early in his Colts career. Also, the Texans are as talented as any other team’s been in the division in some time.

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Ed from Dallas, Texas writes: Matt Schaub is entering the last year of his contract, coming back from a Lisfranc injury and had his accuracy percentage drop each of the past two seasons. Considering that Gary Kubiak/Rick Smith are likely to get extensions, Do you think there's any chance that they turn an eye to the long term and do something unexpected like taking a QB of the future (Yates is a good backup but not starting caliber) in the first or second round? If not, do you see them extending Schaub before the season or letting him play out the season as somewhat of a lame-duck QB who has to prove himself to get resigned similar to what the 49ers did with Alex Smith?

Paul Kuharsky: I certainly can’t see them talking contract until they see the foot healed and functional. If and when it is, they could happily look to stay married to him for another term. If not, I think they love Yates and see him as ideal for what they want to do. Lack of need thanks to their quality depth will give them the freedom to draft who they like, so I won’t be completely surprised if they take another quarterback. I would be surprised if he was at No. 26 overall.

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Myron Hustoft from San Antonio writes: I'm a little confused on your entry about Indy's second round. You stated their pick is the 34th overall. Compensatory picks, I thought, don't begin until after the third round and I can't find a reference to Indi swapping 2nd round picks with St. Louis. Why aren't they picking 33? Was a tagged on 1st rounder given to someone? If so, what was the reason?

Paul Kuharsky: It’s the 34th pick, the second pick of the second round. (I messed that up initially.)

Indy and St. Louis tied in the draft order, the Colts got No. 1 overall on a tiebreaker. Tied teams in draft order rotate their spot in subsequent rounds. So the Rams are first in the second round, the Colts first in the third round, the Rams first in the fourth, etc.

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Amy Hamilton from Indianapolis writes: Why is Bruce skipping the AFC South? I'm going to have to go to Detroit!

Paul Kuharsky: It’s only the first leg. I’m going to Springsteen’s opener in Atlanta. So you won’t be the only traveler from the division.

Early thoughts on some key Colts scheduled to become unrestricted free agents come March 13.

Thanks to Mac’s Football Blog, where you can find complete team-by-team lists that include exclusive right and restricted free agents.

QB Kerry Collins – He may not have filed paperwork, but he’s retired.

QB Dan Orlovsky – Showed enough to be on a roster in the league as a third quarterback in a crowded situation or a backup somewhere with a sure-fire starter.

WR Pierre Garcon – He’s inconsistent, but this team needs a speed receiver for Andrew Luck and it’s better to keep the one they’ve been developing than going searching.

WR Anthony Gonzalez – Was completely in the doghouse at the end and could not get on the field. Probably needs to sign for a season, in Indy or elsewhere, and prove he can be healthy and contribute.

WR Reggie Wayne – Has said he’d stay and be honored to be part of a rebuild, but they’d have to be fair. Other teams will court him and somebody will pay him better than the Colts would if they pursued him, I suspect.

TE Jacob Tamme – Was quite a good receiving option for Peyton Manning in 2010, but how much of that was Manning? I think Tamme is a valuable piece they should want back and can certainly afford.

OT Ryan Diem – Did well to serve as a veteran example for a young line and was flexible, playing some guard. But his time is going to be up.

OG Mike Pollak – Has played a lot and not gotten a lot better. They got new tackles last year; it’s time for a new guard or two.

OC Jeff Saturday – If Manning is gone, it would make sense to turn the page with Saturday, too. Reportedly the Colts and at least one other team would like him in their front offices.

DE Robert Mathis – Will be a commodity, for sure. Never mind his age. He can help you rush the passer for the next three years. Colts should want to keep him, but will they pay what he costs?

LB Philip Wheeler – If the Colts are getting bigger on defense, they’ll probably move on here. He’s consistently failed to get in or stay in the lineup for extended stretches in a defense for which he’s better suited.

Other UFAs:

• DE Jamaal Anderson
• FB Jerome Felton
• OT Quinn Ojinnaka
• OG Jamey Richard
• DE Tyler Brayton
• DE Eric Foster
• LB Kevin Bentley
• LB Ernie Sims

Gene Wojciechowski does a nice job in this piece of recounting Joe Montana’s separation from the 49ers and comparing it to what’s unfolding for Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts.

“NFL history repeats itself. The circumstances aren't exactly the same, but they're similar enough. Bottom line: Divorce proceedings between a generational player and the franchise he helped make famous are never easy. ‘It was horribly difficult,’ (Niners team president Carmen) Policy said the other day by phone, describing Montana's departure from the 49ers in 1993. ‘At that time he had won four Super Bowls. He was the quintessential comeback kid. He was so revered in the community, so loved in the locker room.

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Frederick BreedonIt's difficult to miss all the signs that point to the Colts separating from QB Peyton Manning.

"In a strong, strong way there are similarities in terms of what Peyton Manning has done for that franchise in Indianapolis. You almost can't think of the franchise without thinking of Peyton Manning. … To separate is really, really difficult and heart wrenching."

But I have to disagree with Wojciechowski’s conclusion. He believes the Colts should do whatever necessary to hold on to Manning.

“Maybe you push back the March 8 due date on Manning's $28 million option bonus. Maybe you say, ‘I want you to begin and end your career wearing the horseshoe, but you've got to work with me on this $28 mil. Can we restructure it?’

“Maybe you tell him, ‘Come back, play another year, help mentor (Andrew) Luck or RG3 and then we'll put together an organizational golden parachute for you. And if you play like pre-neck surgery Peyton, then we'll re-up you for another year or you go somewhere as a free agent.’

“Professional. Reasonable. Logical.”

But not feasible.

The NFLPA tells me the first renegotiated of a contract can take place at any time. Then the second cannot happen within a year if it causes a salary increase over the first redo.

So Manning's contract isn’t the big issue, actually.

The issue is every move the Colts have made since the end of the season has been intended to set up a fresh start and a new era. And as much as the Colts love Manning and appreciate his work for them, finding a way to keep him on a team that’s going to undergo a major rebuild under a new GM with a new coach and staff and with the No. 1 pick coming to town is impractical.

It’s too late to take the path Woj wants, and while taking it is in some way the noble thing to do to preserve what’s been a beautiful thing, it’s not the practical thing to do for the long-term health of the franchise.

It’s in no way easy. It’s incredibly emotional for all parties involved.

The odds that all these factors would arrive at the same time were incredibly low: Manning’s continued uncertain health; the secondary bonus coming due that triggers the remainder of his contract; the Colts’ terrible season without him that resulted in the No. 1 pick; the availability of Luck with that pick; Irsay’s frustration with Bill Polian and Chris Polian coming off that failed season that led to their dismissals; the hiring of Ryan Grigson as the new GM; the removal of Jim Caldwell; the hiring of Chuck Pagano as the new coach; looming decisions on three old-guard guys heading to free agency -- center Jeff Saturday, receiver Reggie Wayne and defensive end Robert Mathis.

If Irsay had decided to attempt to load up for a three-season push for another Super Bowl with Manning, I wouldn’t have had a problem with it. But he either had to go all-in in such fashion, or bail and start anew.

He’s already well down the path to the second strategy. And the Colts brass needs to line up with the approach Policy took with Montana.

There is a Jim Irsay-Manning meeting looming. There is a lot of talk about a decision still to be made. It's hard for me to imagine Irsay hasn't already made it and we aren't just waiting for it to play out.

Let’s catch up on a couple interesting Colts' items from Adam Schefter…

1) Manning's contract hopes:

Peyton Manning and/or his people continue to work to assure other teams that he will be signable if (it’s really when) the Colts release him.

Schefter reports that “Manning is completely open to creating a contract in which he would be paid little or no guaranteed money up front and he would have to earn every cent he makes strictly through performance, according to sources.”

Such a structure will put a new team at ease, as it dissipates the risk of paying big dollars up front and then finding that Manning is unable to play because insufficient nerve regeneration leaves him unable to throw the way he needs to.

Someone would probably be willing to give Manning a pretty typical contract. But this is a smart play that likely will prompt more teams to consider pursuing him. The arm is the biggest issue, the contract the second biggest. And Manning’s people are working to minimize the second.

2) Saturday's future.

Sources tell Schefter that the Colts have offered Jeff Saturday a front office job, and that a second team has done the same.

I could see the long-time Indianapolis center in a front office role. But he’s given no indication he’s done playing, so such offers could be premature.

Saturday was a crucial piece in the players’ side of piecing together the new labor deal. He’s thoughtful, well-spoken and smart, and he’s a people person able to relate and interact with virtually anyone.

We don’t know his aspirations beyond his playing days. Networks would also love to have him as an analyst. Would he rather work for a team or a network? Perhaps he’d take time off, or dig deeper into charity work.

Schefter’s report includes a scout saying Saturday can still play. My guess would be that’s the most likely possibility for 2012.

Peter Schrager of Esquire is anticipating the next wave of NFL TV analysts, providing a list of the 10 players we will see next on the tube.

(There aren’t tubes in our TVs anymore, are there? The term can linger, can’t it?)

The AFC South dominates the top of the list, occupying the first, second and fifth slots.

1) Peyton Manning -- From the story: “If I were to rank the top five active players that I'd want on a studio show, Peyton Manning would be number one, number two, number three, number four, and number five." — Television Executive

PK: If it’s what he wants to do, he’ll be fantastic at it, particularly as his contemporaries finish playing and he’s less likely to hold back on criticism.

2) Jeff Saturday -- From the story: “Surprisingly, the lockout actually helped some guys. As the voice of the players union, he came off as smart, thoughtful, and very likeable. There's a lot of buzz about Saturday. He could get a prime gig right out of the gates." — Agent

PK: The more non-quarterbacks added to the analyst ranks, the better. It would be great to have an additional lineman in a prominent spot.

5) Matt Hasselbeck -- From the story: “I think he’ll be great. Good voice, smart guy, and pretty funny. He's a no-brainer to me." — Agent

PK: Saw him work up close this season and he’d be very interesting and entertaining.

They come from everywhere, with a great initial push that puts blockers on their heels and speeds up the clock in quarterbacks' heads.

The Houston Texans have a lot of excellent pieces. But to me, nothing sets the tone more than their swarming defensive front. A different defensive lineman or linebacker pops through into the backfield and forces a mistake, drags the quarterback down or strips the ball and pounces on it with great frequency.

Forty-four sacks are nice, and ranked sixth in the league. But they are hardly the only representation of how effectively the Texans have rushed. Opposing quarterbacks completed a league-low 51.9 percent of their passes against Houston. They've been hurried and harassed, throwing inaccurately and throwing balls away to avoid hits and sacks. The front always has hands up, and batted down a league-best 19 passes.

The work of the group is going to be the No. 1 thing to watch Saturday at Reliant Stadium. Can Cincinnati’s big offensive line keep the Texans off quarterback Andy Dalton long enough to let him work? If it can’t, the Texans should wind up in prime position for a second-round game in Baltimore.

“The front seven is probably the best in football; they flat get after you,” Colts center Jeff Saturday said. “Antonio Smith is their best player. J.J. Watt, to be a rookie, he’s been very impressive. And then those guys [Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed] come off the corners -- they call them linebackers, they’re really defensive ends.

“So you’re playing a five-man front all day. DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing can run with the best of them. They just give you everything they’ve got. I respect the heck of the way they play.”

Dalton, who’s missed work with the flu this week, said the constant effort of the Texans’ defense is what he notices every time he watches it and what the Bengals have to be prepared to counter.

“They just play so hard,” he said. “That’s the one thing you see on film. They are never giving up. Even guys who are getting blocked, it’s not like they are stopping their feet. They are doing everything they can to get off of their blocks. That’s what makes their defense play the way they do.”

An AFC personnel man I spoke with this week said he sees a weakness for Cincinnati on the interior line, where left guard Nate Livings, center Kyle Cook and right guard Mike McGlynn will be susceptible against Houston.

The Texans do superb work with stunts and twists where a defender loops around and makes an offensive line switch who they block. Those plays will cause the Bengals’ bigger, slower linemen problems.

“They run their stunt game better than anybody,” the personnel man said. “They rush to the point where the offensive line cannot pass off, they are so deep into their sets, deep into their rush, that you can’t pass it off. If you pass it off, another guy is going to come free. They do a real good job making it so those offensive linemen cannot come off of you to take the looping rusher.

“The Texans are just too deep into their rush, you can’t do it. There is not enough time. They do it so quick, they are so tight. If you want to put on a clinic of how to rush with stunts, put on the Houston Texans' defense. That’s like no other team I’ve seen do it, that’s as perfect as you can do it.”

Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will find stuff out of the regular-season matchup, which the Texans won in Cincinnati on Dec. 11, to exploit in a second chance.

What’s the antidote for the Bengals?

Dalton will have to get rid of the ball in a hurry, and drives will be reliant on yards after the catch and the ability to string together long drives with a lot of first downs. The Texans will win some plays by taking away Dalton’s first and second reads, and he simply won’t have the time or opportunity to find the third.

Of course, Cincinnati rushes the quarterback well, too. The Bengals had 45 sacks from 15 different guys. But their 4-3 front is more straightforward, and Houston's offensive line is another team strength.

Smith said the Texans take pride in dependably rushing the passer every week. Those 44 regular-season sacks were the sixth-best total in the NFL. Eleven different linemen and linebackers factored into those sacks.

“That’s consistent, man,” Smith said. “The front seven has done a tremendous job, especially with all the sacks spread over not just one or two guys. … Each and every person on this defense has a role and a job to do, and is capable of getting it done.

“We’re capable of getting to the quarterback, I don’t think that’s been a problem all year. Teams started changing up the way they attacked us with the quick passes and the three-step drops and slide protections. But with our outside rushers we’re still able to get there.”