AFC South: Jerraud Powers

The Indianapolis Colts traded fullback Chris Gronkowski to Denver for cornerback Cassius Vaughn.

I like this on two levels:

I am anti-fullback and pro tight end. You might be throwing when a tight end or two is on the field. You’re probably running if a fullback is out there. It’s too narrow a role.

On the depth chart, the Colts are incredibly thin at corner after Jerraud Powers.

Here’s what Scouts Inc. has to say about Vaughn.
Vaughn is a good-sized corner with above-average top end speed and adequate agility, acceleration and body control. He flashes good strength as a tackler but has a tendency to duck his head and lunge when tackling in space. He shows marginal foot speed and quickness in his pedal and will struggle trying to extend the cushion. He looks a bit tight in the hips when opening to turn and run. He needs work on route recognition and reading the quarterback's eyes from off coverage but will show decent burst to close once he gets realigned and drives on the ball.
Daryl Smith/Matt Schaub/Jason McCourtyUS Presswire/Getty ImagesDaryl Smith, Matt Schaub and Jason McCourty are slated to become free agents after this season.

Earlier this week, Texans owner Bob McNair talked about negotiating contract extensions for coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith.

That got me thinking: Who are the AFC South players who need contract extensions before they get anywhere close to an expired contract at the start of the 2013 league year?

Here are my top six:

1) Matt Schaub, Texans quarterback

I understand there are some non-believers. In five seasons with the Texans, Schaub has played a full slate of games only twice. He’s not been consistently clutch in big moments.

Still, I see him as a quality engineer of Kubiak’s offense. I think the team loves him and has faith in him. And although rookie T.J. Yates did some good work while filling in for Schaub last season, I don’t think the Texans would be comfortable handing the team over to Yates after he's been in the league only two seasons, especially if he plays only a little or not at all this season because Schaub is in the lineup.

I’d make sure Schaub’s fully recovered from the serious right foot injury that ended his 2011 season. If he plays well in the first month of the season, I’d talk to his agent. Even if they wait until after the 2012 season plays out, gauging his health and seeing how far he can take them, Schaub is their guy.

He’s not the best player on this list, but as a starting quarterback, he goes to the head of the line. Is he a top quarterback in the league? My count says he’s 13th or 14th among current starters. You’d like better, but can do far worse and I don’t think you can project Yates to rank any higher. The Texans aren't going to be drafting at the top of the first round, and none of the guys better than Schaub are going to be hitting the market. So there is no place to go to upgrade.

2) Connor Barwin, Texans outside linebacker

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Connor Barwin
Thomas Campbell/US PresswireConnor Barwin enjoyed a breakout season in 2011, collecting 11.5 sacks.
The Texans projected Barwin could be a quality pass-rusher when they drafted him out of Cincinnati in 2009 with a second-round pick. Last year, in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense, Barwin was a consistent pass-rushing force, playing nearly 95 percent of the team’s defensive snaps and recording 11.5 sacks.

Barwin is part of the reason the franchise could afford to let Mario Williams depart as a free agent. The Texans simply cannot allow Barwin to follow Williams out of town. And with the increase in 3-4 defenses around the league, there are a lot of teams that would make a play for Barwin if he came free.

3) Daryl Smith, Jacksonville linebacker

Smith’s known for being an underrated player.

He’s an anchor for the Jaguars, and I expect he’ll shine in a healthy defense in 2012. The unit has a chance to be great, and Smith will shine if the coverage behind him is good and the rush in front of him can be consistent. They have the people for both of those elements to be in place.

The Jaguars would certainly like to keep a starting linebacker corps of Smith, Paul Posluszny and Clint Session together.

4) Duane Brown, Texans left tackle

I don’t think he’s regarded around the league as a premier guy who would draw a ton of interest if he became a free agent. But he is regarded as an excellent player in the Texans' line scheme. The team is moving forward, replacing Mike Brisiel at right guard and Eric Winston at right tackle.

The Texans did what they had to in order to keep center Chris Myers. They will need to do the same with Brown. They must hold together the key pieces of what was an excellent group in 2011. Brown is vital for the success of Schaub, or Yates, as well as running back Arian Foster.

5) Jason McCourty, Titans cornerback

He’s a solid player on the rise. He plays a position where he will have a chance to establish himself as a productive leader who needs to be in place for the long term.

Cortland Finnegan is gone. And the team is weak at safety, where Michael Griffin is getting one last chance under the franchise tag and Jordan Babineaux owns a starting spot at least in part because the Titans don’t have other options.

McCourty is a smart player who should be the best member of the secondary in 2012 and beyond provided they are able to keep him.

6) Terrance Knighton, Jaguars defensive tackle

He suffered a serious eye injury in a bar incident not long ago, but indications are he should be OK for training camp. Knighton has had weight issues since he came into the league. He seems to have gained better control of that, and general manager Gene Smith made it clear to Knighton that if he proves he can remain fit he’ll be taken care of in the long run.

Knighton moves very well for a very large man, and the Jaguars believe if their defense will be good, it will be because Knighton and Tyson Alualu anchor the middle, stuffing the run and moving the quarterback off his spot.

Also not under contract for 2013 and likely worthy of new deals: Texans safety Glover Quin, Colts cornerback Jerraud Powers, Jaguars cornerback Derek Cox, Titans tight end Jared Cook and Colts receiver Austin Collie.
Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders covers the AFC South in today’s installment of remaining needs around the league.

Here are snippets with my thoughts.

Houston Texans: Right tackle

“[Rashad] Butler, who was actually [Eric] Winston's replacement at tackle at the University of Miami as well, does have a decent pedigree as a former third-round pick with the Carolina Panthers, but he doesn't have much in the way of NFL experience. He saw some snaps in 6-OL sets in 2010 and got four starts on the left side when Duane Brown was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. While he wasn't a disaster replacing Brown, and may even offer a slight upgrade on Winston in pass protection, it would be a surprise if he brought quite as much to the table in the running game. The only other in-house options are 2011 seventh-rounder Derek Newton and 2012 sixth-round pick Nick Mondek, both of whom are considered projects. Since Houston is also handing over right guard to Antoine Caldwell, a new right side could lead to some awkwardness as the offensive line learns to work together in game conditions.”

My thoughts: This is the biggest question on the roster in my eyes. Butler played four games at left tackle when Brown was suspended in 2010 and was only OK. Supporters say he’s more suited to playing on the right.

Indianapolis Colts: Cornerback

“Indianapolis left the draft with no new cornerbacks and now has a logjam of unproven mediocrity at the position. Last season, Indianapolis finished 26th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, 27th against No. 2 wide receivers and 31st against other wide receivers. And the only change in personnel from then to now was the exile of Jacob Lacey, who played poorly enough last year to lose his starting job to the guys who are still in town. Jerraud Powers has always done well by our metrics and will be back on the field after being bothered by a hamstring injury and shutting it down following a dislocated elbow in Week 13... As the NFL continues to shift into a passing league, really good defenses are finding that having three credible cornerbacks is a necessity. The Colts are still stuck on one at this point.”

My thoughts: Something had to suffer based on the depth of needs, and the secondary certainly was not covered the way it needed to be. We're going to see a patchwork group and the Colts could be ready to pounce if and when quality options get cut at the end of camp.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Offensive line

“A strong run-blocking unit … did Blaine Gabbert no favors over the course of his nightmare rookie season. Guy Whimper was one of the worst offensive tackles in the league last season -- FO's J.J. Cooper had a scathing column on his play last year -- and the only obstacle to keep him from starting at tackle again is Eben Britton, whom the Jaguars wanted to turn into a guard last season. Will Rackley, a third-round pick in 2011, won the starting nod at left guard. He showed some flash in the running game, but also allowed 6.5 sacks and looked every bit as lost as Gabbert did in a few games. Eugene Monroe is solid at left tackle but lacks the edge speed to match the best rushers in the NFL. Brad Meester is 35, and not the type of 35 that gets you "wily old vet" mentions like Matt Birk or Jeff Saturday. This is a unit that could have used some more solidification rather than the blind hope that Britton's return from a back injury will heal all.”

My thoughts: A great place to find a guy who could be in the mix in a situation like this is the third round. But the Jaguars preferred a punter. (It’s still funny. I’m sure it’ll wear off eventually. Right?)

Tennessee Titans: Defensive end

“[Kamerion] Wimbley isn't a bad player at all -- in fact, he's picked up 42.5 sacks in six years, which is pretty impressive. However, he's never played exclusively as a 4-3 defensive end, and as our own esteemed Tom Gower noted on his Total Titans blog, four of his seven sacks in 2011 came against woefully overmatched Chargers backup tackle Brandyn Dombrowski. Wimbley was a smart signing in light of the other options, but he's not exactly a sure thing. If the Titans can get some production from either Wimbley or third-year end Derrick Morgan, that would go a long way toward shoring up their 31st-place ranking in Adjusted Sack Rate from 2011.”

My thoughts: It’s possible Wimbley and Morgan with veteran Dave Ball and rookie Scott Solomon could be a good enough four pack. But I don’t like the odds for them all staying healthy and I don’t think it’s good enough.

Colts: One big question

May, 4, 2012
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Who’s playing pass defense for the Indianapolis Colts?

New coach Chuck Pagano will convert the Colts, a longtime 4-3 team, to a 3-4. He’s cited the Texans’ changeover a year ago as an example of how it can happen in one year and how the front actually gets scrambled up and can often still have the look of a 4-3.

In Year 1 for Pagano in Indianapolis, however, it’s the personnel that may dictate more of the old base front. The Colts signed a veteran nose tackle (Brandon McKinney) and a veteran end (Cory Redding), and drafted a nose tackle in fifth-rounder Josh Chapman. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be less predictable coming forward from outside linebacker positions.

The problem is in the secondary.

Indianapolis was 15th against the pass last year. But that ranking is misleading because offenses could run against the Colts and often handed off while trying to run time off the clock and preserve leads.

Antoine Bethea is a quality free safety and Jerraud Powers is a good corner. Beyond them, the Colts are thin and unproven in the defensive backfield.

They didn’t draft any defensive backs, though their initial undrafted rookie group of 15 includes five of them.

No matter how well the Colts rush out of the new front, the team needs people behind it who can cover, which is not the strong suit of the veteran addition to the group, strong safety Tom Zbikowski.

Spots that still need attention

April, 30, 2012
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The draft is over, the rosters are filled up.

But what areas weren’t sufficiently addressed and where can we expect to see the teams of the AFC South continue to seek help?

Some thoughts.

Houston Texans

Veteran corner Jason Allen left as a free agent. He helped the Texans cover for Kareem Jackson, who played just 55.73 percent of the team’s defensive snaps in 2011.

Brandon Harris was a second-round pick out of Miami last year, but didn’t show anything. The Texans look to be counting on him to contribute more. They like Brice McCain, but he's a situational guy.

But corner is a spot where the Texans need some additional depth at the very least.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts loaded their roster with offensive players -- eight of 10 draft picks went on that side of the ball.

The defensive picks were on the defensive line.

Which means the Colts still have a ton of work to do in the defensive backfield.

Jerraud Powers is a quality corner and a good leader. But after him, there are no proven corners on the roster. Is the second starter Chris Rucker? Kevin Thomas? Mike Holmes? Brandon King?

That’s not a great group to be choosing from. Look for team to give some undrafted rookies a chance and grab a veteran or two as guys come free during camp cuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars believe a healthy Eben Britton will help fortify their offensive line and he should.

But they don’t have sufficient depth on the offensive line and should create a situation where there is more real competition.

They re-signed Guy Whimper, who is a swing tackle at best and had some bad stretches last season. They like John Estes as a reserve center, but it would be nice to have someone to compete with him for the right to take over for Brad Meester.

Tennessee Titans

The team has sent major mixed signals about its offensive line.

Tennessee courted all the top centers in free agency but did not land one. And then they didn't draft an offensive lineman. Coach Mike Munchak said it wasn’t a dire need and the team can win with what it has.

Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reports that among the team’s undrafted rookies is William Vlachos. Perhaps the center from Alabama can scramble the mix. But the Titans should still be adding options on the interior.

AFC South draft analysis

April, 28, 2012
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» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South


Despite talk of grabbing the best player available, it’s funny how often needs and picks seem to line up.

Of 31 picks, I count four that don’t technically qualify as addressing needs: Jaguars fifth-round linebacker Brandon Marshall, Titans fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson, Jaguars sixth-round cornerback Mike Harris and Colts seventh-round quarterback Chandler Harnish.

We saw the Texans replenish at outside linebacker, on the offensive line and at kicker and add to their options at receiver. The Colts loaded up on help for No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck -- seven of their other nine picks bring offensive players to Indianapolis . Jacksonville addressed its big needs right out of the chute, then made a couple of odd selections. Tennessee didn’t take two players at the same position.

BEST MOVE

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Justin Blackmon
Al Bello/Getty ImagesJustin Blackmon is the premier playmaker the Jaguars' offense sorely needed.
The Jaguars came into the offseason in dire need of upgraded weaponry for Blaine Gabbert. They started last season with wide receiver Jason Hill as a starter, and he was cut before the season ended. Mike Thomas was miscast as a top-of-the-group guy when he should be a No. 3. Cecil Shorts showed he needs a lot of time to develop.

Mike Mularkey hired a solid receiver coach, Jerry Sullivan. He’s a tremendous upgrade from Johnny Cox, who was quickly fired after Jack Del Rio was dismissed during the 2011 season. Free agency brought Laurent Robinson, who should help, and Lee Evans, who’d be gravy if he can revive his career.

The Jaguars successfully sold pundits on the idea they’d be trading down, then only gave up a fourth-rounder to move up from No. 7 to No. 5 to draft Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon. He’s a dynamic receiver who can catch balls outside his frame and cause matchup problems.

Outside of Luck, no team in the division got a player who can cure an ill better than Blackmon can fix what ails the Jacksonville offense. Now it’s on Gabbert to show he can effectively get the ball to the new star receiver.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Titans didn’t touch a defensive end until Scott Solomon in the seventh round, and they didn’t add an offensive lineman at all. And pass rush and run blocking were two areas that qualified as weaknesses at the end of last season.

Tennessee hosted Scott Wells, Chris Myers, Jeff Saturday and Dan Koppen and saw all four sign elsewhere. On Saturday, coach Mike Munchak made those meetings sound like information-gathering get-togethers rather than courtships, a stance that’s pretty insulting to veterans who wouldn’t waste time making visits without the possibility of a contract.

The defense of incumbent starters on the interior -- Eugene Amano and Leroy Harris -- has entered a new round now. Munchak said the team felt no “dire need there” and that “we have guys we can win with.” Still, watch for a key undrafted addition or free agent or two.

The Titans added one big piece this offseason to its insufficient pass rush in the form of free-agent end Kamerion Wimbley, who was a cap casualty in Oakland. He may provide a big boost but also probably shouldn’t be on the field for every play. Tennessee’s only attempt to bolster itself on the edges came with the 211th pick, end Scott Solomon from Rice.

The Titans face a pretty good slate of quarterbacks this season. Those passers may have a lot of time to throw.

MOST SURPRISING PICK

We hit it hard Saturday night, but the Jaguars' selection of Bryan Anger in the third round was a baffler. Yes, the team will benefit from a big leg and stands to gain field position.

But Jacksonville overrated special teams’ impact by deciding to draft Anger so early rather than addressing other needs where it could have selected a player with a chance to play.

The Jaguars have a recent history of messing up at the position, and teams that struggle with stability at a spot are prone to overreach in an effort to correct it.

I believe that’s a good piece of what happened here. They could have gotten him or a punter who still would have been a big upgrade later.

The Jaguars found Terrance Knighton, Derek Cox and Will Rackley in the third round in Gene Smith’s previous three drafts. They are all starters who affect games more than a punter can.

They can rationalize this pick. And we can stridently disagree.

FILE IT AWAY

Six receivers came into the division -- Blackmon, Kendall Wright in Tennessee, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill in Indianapolis and DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin in Houston. That’s two first-rounders, two third-rounders, a fourth-rounder and a sixth-rounder.

The countermeasures?

Just two incoming cornerbacks -- Titans fourth-rounder Coty Sensabaugh and Jaguars sixth-rounder Harris.

Secondary depth could be severely tested by good quarterbacks and receivers, especially when the division faces the NFC North and the high-powered passing offenses of Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago.

The Colts have no proven corners beyond Jerraud Powers. The Texans lost Jason Allen, who played a reasonable amount. The Titans need to unearth a new nickelback now that Cortland Finnegan is gone. Only the Jaguars have fortified the spot, adding two-time Super Bowl winner Aaron Ross, presumably getting Cox and Rashean Mathis back healthy and drafting Harris.

The AFC South is a big running back division, but it’s become more equipped to sling it and may not have the people needed to cover offenses with a lot of downfield weapons.

“It tells you that this is a wide-open league, the offensive focus is on scoring points probably more than ever,” Titans general manager Ruston Webster said. “It’s becoming more of a quarterback-wide receiver league probably every day.”
Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders runs through the primary need of each AFC South team in this Insider piece . Here’s a peek at what he has to say with my reflections.

Houston Texans: Wide receiver

McCown: “The Texans enter free agency as a team with a promising amount of depth at many key areas, but Andre Johnson's injury last season exposed the fact that Houston's wide receivers simply aren't up to snuff without him ...

“The Texans will look hard at receivers in free agency and the draft. It's unlikely that they'll land a top-tier wideout like Marques Colston or Vincent Jackson because they still need to budget money carefully for players like Mario Williams, Arian Foster and Chris Myers. But a mid-level receiver like Steve Johnson, Reggie Wayne or Robert Meachem could potentially be brought in.

“More likely, however, the path for improvement will come through the draft.”

Paul Kuharsky: I think the Texans like Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones better than most analysts, but the long stretches without Johnson made them overly reliant on Foster as a target showed they don’t have enough at wideout.

Indianapolis Colts: Wide receiver

McCown: “Of the top five receivers on the Colts' depth chart going into last season, only Austin Collie and Blair White are under contract for 2012. Reggie Wayne, who will turn 34 during the 2012 season, is likely on the outs as this team begins a rebuilding phase. The Colts have expressed interest in re-signing free agent Pierre Garcon, who has generally fared very poorly in our receiving numbers. Garcon came out as below-replacement value last year, but he has ideal deep speed, and playing with Dan Orlovsky or Curtis Painter will make any speed receiver look worse than he really is. Anthony Gonzalez is also finally out the door after a disappointing, injury-plagued career in Colts blue.

“Again, given the direction of the team, it's rather unlikely that the Colts will be players for an elite free-agent receiver, but they could probably be in on the mid-tier targets with an eye toward youth. Players like Laurent Robinson, Harry Douglas or Andre Caldwell could make sense here. The Colts could also spend their second- or third-round picks on a receiver who could compete for snaps.”

Kuharsky: McCown writes he skipped past quarterback knowing it will be addressed with the No. 1 pick. Receiver is certainly a concern, but I think cornerback may rate as even bigger for a team that hired a defensive head coach in Chuck Pagano. If the new regime likes Jerraud Powers, the team still ranks as thin in coverage guys after him.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Wide receiver

McCown: "Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson summed it up best when he said: 'Those guys couldn't get a [expletive] receiver if it hit them in the head. They haven't had anyone since Jimmy Smith. ...'

“There are two ways to (upgrade). The Jaguars could make a play for Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson. They certainly have the cap space to accomplish such a goal and could even bowl over someone who is iffy about Jacksonville with extra money. Or they could see if Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon falls into their laps at No. 7 overall, which would certainly be a more cost-conscious, if risky, move.”

Kuharsky: We are certainly talking about more than one guy. The Jaguars could aggressively shop in free agency and get a first-tier and second-tier guy. Or they could grab one veteran and spend a premium pick on another receiver. Upgrading the weapons for Blaine Gabbert is definitely priority No. 1.

Tennessee Titans: Defensive end

McCown: “Assuming that the Titans continue to handcuff themselves to the declining Chris Johnson, the biggest need in Nashville is an elite pass-rusher. When Jason Babin joined former Titans defensive line coach Jim Washburn in defecting to the Eagles, the Titans' adjusted sack rate fell from 13th in the NFL in 2010 to second-to-last in 2011. Moreover, only two teams generated fewer quarterback hits from their top pass-rushers than the six the Titans had from Dave Ball: the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills ...

“If they can't address defensive end in free agency, then a pass rusher will likely be a top priority for the Titans with their first-round pick. If they do pick up a premier sack artist, then it would give them an opportunity to spend the pick on a safety or wide receiver, which are also positions that could use reinforcement in Nashville.”

Kuharsky: The Titans need immediate impact at the spot. I don’t expect them to overpay Williams if he's free. The free-agent crop behind him could be thin if guys get franchised. Can they find a reclamation type like Babin who will be an upgrade on opening day? Will a guy who can consistently get into the backfield still be on the draft board at No. 20?
Regrets? Everybody’s got a few… We asked for some feedback on one thing you’d like to go back and change for each team in the AFC South.

For the Colts, the overwhelming response was regretting not having a solid backup plan for Peyton Manning. But I’ve said time and time again that all but a few teams in the league would trade the Colts run of success and one awful year for what they’ve had. So I don’t place a lot of blame -- developing some young quarterback with Manning yielding no snaps or luring a quality veteran backup who expected he’d never play would have been difficult.

Here’s my biggest second-guess about the 2011 Indianapolis Colts.

Not shoring up the secondary.

Re-signing safety Melvin Bullitt was, I believe, the right thing to do. But he quickly got hurt and the backup plan was insufficient.

The same can be said at cornerback. They let Kelvin Hayden go over money and while Justin Tryon’s been cast as far better than he is, he was better than the other options. He landed in the doghouse and got cut. Jerraud Powers was the lone quality corner and was under too much strain before he got hurt.

Jacfob Lacey was awful, and got benched, though he rebounded well when he found his way back into the lineup.

No one was afraid to throw the direction of safeties Joe Lefeged or David Caldwell or corners like Terrence Johnson, Kevin Thomas or Chris Rucker.

The Colts got good play from Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney on the defensive line and from Pat Angerer at middle linebacker. But on the secondary level, no one played to that standard and it was a big part of what killed the Colts in a miserable season.

Whatever system the new Colts run, it’ll be a big part of what they need to fix under new GM Ryan Grigson.

Rebounding Lacey was big piece for Colts

December, 19, 2011
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Jacob Lacey had fallen so far out of favor that he was inactive for the Indianapolis Colts' eighth game after starting the first seven.

The Colts had decided they would be OK without veteran corner Kelvin Hayden, who was cut before the season in a cash-saving move. Then they cut Justin Tryon after three games.

Lacey's struggles made those decisions look very questionable.

But Lacey has played much better since the team gave him back a big role because of injuries.

Sunday he muscled a pass away from Chris Johnson and took it 32 yards to the end zone for a crucial touchdown in the Colts’ win over the Tennessee Titans. He also had 12 tackles and another pass defensed.

“Lacey had an excellent day out there again,” coach Jim Caldwell said.

Lacey is a soft-spoken, thoughtful guy who’s basically working as the No. 1 corner now with Jerraud Powers and Terrence Johnson on IR. His game really slipped, but a change in coordinator from Larry Coyer to Mike Murphy appears to have helped him rebound.

“Team-wise and personally, being in the position we were in has been tough on us, but we never strayed away from each other or gave up on anybody or anything like that,” Lacey said. “It felt good to come out here and show how much we’ve jelled as a unit.

“I put my nose to the grindstone and I used my time at practice to improve myself going against Pierre Garcon every day, just battling, coming out and trying to work on everything I needed to work on.”

Mailbag: Wrestling your tough questions

December, 17, 2011
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John Lloyd from Yulee, Fla., writes: I count 24 players on jag IR. How did you get 27?

Paul Kuharsky: They placed a couple on IR that they eventually reached a settlement with. That means they can release those players while they're still injured. So they disappeared from the roster. But their seasons ended when they were put on IR.


Jason from Philadelphia writes: You get 10 Colts players to keep next year, who are they? Top 5 in order, 6-10 doesn't have to be. Manning doesn't count. Freeney Mathis Castonzo Bethea Nevis Angerer Ijalana Wayne Clark Collie. Picked the tackles and Nevis because they are new draft picks and have shown promise when healthy. I've always stayed positive but that list was harder than I thought it would be. The talent level has really dropped off. I almost put McAfee in there.

Paul Kuharsky: OK, Manning doesn’t count and I am really concentrating on having the best team I can next year. I’ve changed this a bit from when I emailed you back.

I’d go: Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pat Angerer, Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana, Drake Nevis and Jerraud Powers. Donald Brown just missed. I think he can actually run and will get out of the doghouse if there is a new regime. I think Dallas Clark's injuries are starting to mount and I don’t know if you can expect anything close to a full season from him.


Jimmy Bagley from Philly, Pa., writes: Looking at your rankings, I am trying to figure out why you have Houston so low.... Why wouldn't they be at the number 4 spot? Green Bay, obviously number one with a bullet. Baltimore, number two ok. N.O. should be 3 and the Texans at 4... At this point in the season, why aren't the tie breakers used to figure these in.... Houston holds the tie breaker over both Pit and NE.... They were the first team in the AFC to clinch, and have the best divisional record of all the teams.... Not to mention the number 2 defense in the league and a top 3 running game.... They have managed to win in all types of circumstances.... After last week’s come from behind win I thought for sure it would win over critics waiting for them to choke... What else is going to take for the respect to come in.

Paul Kuharsky: What you are looking for, apparently, is the official playoff order for the league right now. (If we do that, what’s the point?) What the power rankings are looking for is my opinion on where teams stand. The official playoff rankings of the moment don’t take into account a third-string quarterback as the starter. No matter how impressive T.J. Yates has been, we have a very small sample size so far. And I have a tough time ranking a team he’s leading ahead of one led by Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, who’ve won Super Bowls. The one case you can make is that the Texans should be ahead of Pittsburgh based on having beaten them. But the Steelers are a much better team now than they were then.

Also you suggest I should rank the Texans higher because they clinched earlier and have a better division record. So they get a reward for the Colts and Jaguars stinking and the Titans being average?

I have Houston sixth. I think we differ on whether that’s good or bad. I think it’s quite good.

I am continually amazed by how people regard the issue of respect. I think, universally, analysts are impressed by what the Texans have done and think they are a very good team. Apparently some of you think we should be holding parades for them and telecasting half-hour specials about their greatness.


Scott Freistat from Hermitage, Tenn., writes: ESPN's latest ranking poll states that if the playoffs were to start today (12/13) the Texans would have the No. 1 seed. How is that possible considering they have the same records as the Ravens (10-3) and the Ravens own the head-to-head matchup? Please explain.

Paul Kuharsky: In a three-way tie, head-to-head results aren’t the top tiebreaker because it does nothing to factor in the third team. The Ravens win a tiebreaker over the Steelers being from same division. Then it’s Texans-Ravens-Patriots. If one team has swept the other two, it wins a tiebreaker. If not, then it’s conference record. The Texans win that right now.


Brian Vining from Douglas, Ga., writes: Who is Matt Williamson? So I guess this so called expert wants to give up on a first round QB who has no weapons except for Maurice jones-Drew. Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year. He is a young QB who needs time to develop. With a good coach and a couple of WR who can catch the ball Gabbert will be great. I'm not saying the Jags is the best out of the three but if I were a coach and could go to a team with a young up and coming QB. A great RB in MJD and a much improved defense I would jump on it. That's not even to mention Gene Smith who has the right philosophy to build a team who can contend for years. National media at it again. Gabbert sucks, the Jags can't fill the stadium, Jags are moving to LA. Maybe if some of them would actually do a little homework they would know none of this is true.

Paul Kuharsky: Williamson is a former NFL scout who knows as much about current personnel as anyone in my business.

Your logic falls apart here: “Gabbert was not even going to be the starter this year.” Then why is he the starter this year? Nothing catostrophic happened. The team chose to cut David Garrard and it chose to bench Luke McCown. Those moves made Gabbert the starter. If you don’t want him starting, arrange for him not to start. I don’t know how we can say he was not supposed to start and offer amnesty based on that. They are starting him. As promising as Gabbert may be, it’s not at all inaccurate to say he’s been horrible this season.

I like Smith, but the rebuild is not moving at a fast enough pace. His philosophy starts with foundation-building and two good lines. Three years in, I don’t see two good lines, do you? And where is anything close to a late-round home run?


Mike M. from Houston writes: The next man up approach only works if the next man up has talent. The Texans have shown that they have talent beyond the 22 starters on the roster. Most have been draft picks, UDFA's, or were low level free agents when acquired (like Kevin Walter or Jason Allen). Does this make Rick Smith the front runner for executive of the year???

Paul Kuharsky: That’s an excellent point, that the next man up has to be equipped to do the job. Lots of teams without good depth get hurt and fall apart.

But let’s not make it like Rick Smith is at the powerful end of the spectrum of GMs in terms of decision-making. It’s a joint operation and he’s not bringing in anyone Gary Kubiak doesn’t sign off on. Wade Phillips had great influence on what they did in the draft and then free agency as well.

Next Level nuggets for you to chew on

December, 7, 2011
12/07/11
5:07
PM ET
Some items I found interesting out of the weekly ESPN Stats and Info Next Level packet that could be things to keep an eye on Sunday:

Jaguars’ pass protection: Defenses have sacked Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert 15 times, rushing four or fewer and 15 times rushing five or more. But they are getting to him nearly twice as often with blitzes. He’s sacked once every 12.9 plays without extra rusher, and once every 6.8 plays with at least one extra.

Indianapolis’ corners: The Colts just lost their top corner, Jerraud Powers, and their nickel corner, Terrence Johnson for the remainder of the season to injuries. Baltimore challenges the defenders on the outside often as quarterback Joe Flacco thrown outside the number more than anyone except Tony Romo and Eli Manning. Flacco’s only connected on 48.9 percent of his 221 attempts to the outside, however.

The Saints in the middle of the field: No one throws more passes between the numbers than New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees. He’s hitting 72.4 percent of his passes to the middle of the field, for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. Titans rookie middle linebacker Colin McCarthy is coming off an AFC defensive player of the week showing in the win at Buffalo, but Brees will challenge him along with the Titans safeties and nickel corner Cortland Finnegan.

Keep the Bengals from YAC: Houston has tackled pretty well all season and needs to keep it up. The Bengals rarely get a boost from big yards after the catch. Only 39.1 percent of their passing yards come after the catch, the second-lowest percentage in the league. It amounts to only 4.5 yards per catch.

The Colts blitzing: Indianapolis and Philadelphia are tied with the fewest defensive plays sending five or more pass rushers, with 76. But Colts opponents have fared far better against those blitzes than teams going against the Eagles. Against the Colts, quarterbacks have hit 61.8 percent of their pass attempts for seven touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks and a 120.1 passer rating. Against the Eagles those numbers are 43.4, six, one, six and 95.6.

Defensive back blitzes: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams likes to blitz anyone from anywhere. Matt Hasselbeck will have to be on the lookout for guys coming out of the secondary. The Saints have blitzed a safety or corner a league-high 117 times. (The Colts have sent a defensive back after the passer a league-low 11 times, and the Jaguars are second at 22.)

RTC: Why would Manning want to stay?

December, 6, 2011
12/06/11
7:54
AM ET
Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Gary Kubiak is 46-46 as coach of the Texans, says Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle. It’s fitting that as the team overcomes serious injuries and continues to win this season, he can get over .500 for the first time Sunday in Cincinnati.

A Texans win and a Titans loss Sunday would clinch the division for the Houston, and it could happen without Andre Johnson on the field, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

T.J. Yates got good reviews after his first start, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Is there a good reason for Peyton Manning to want to stay in Indianapolis? There is a growing schism between the quarterback and the front office and he especially dislikes insinuations that he’s pulling strings behind the scenes, says Bob Kravitz on the Indianapolis Star. Kravitz asks why Manning would want to be part of a dysfunctional mess like the Colts.

Cornerbacks Jerraud Powers and Terrence Johnson are the newest guys out of the mix because of injuries, says Mike Chappell.

The Patriots didn’t take the Colts seriously, says Tom Curran of Comcast Sportsnet.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite all the change and promise, the Jaguars endured the same result, says Vito Stellino of the Times-Union.

The Chargers exploited the Jaguars’ injury-depleted secondary on "Monday Night Football," says Tania Ganguli of the T-U.

Maurice Jones-Drew continued to carry the load for Jacksonville, says Don Coble of the T-U.

The city of Jacksonville and the Jaguars’ defense have taken way too many hits, says Gene Frenette of the T-U.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans hope Jason McCourty recovers from a concussion in time to have the Titans at full strength to defend Drew Brees and the Saints, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Cortland Finnegan is the Titans' Walter Payton Man of the Year for the second consecutive season, says Wyatt.

Tennessee is excelling on special teams, says Wyatt.

Roster moves in Indy and Jacksonville

December, 5, 2011
12/05/11
7:42
PM ET
We've got roster news in Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

The Colts’ pass defense, miserable as it’s been, is about to get worse.

The team’s top cornerback, Jerraud Powers, and another corner who’s played a lot, Terrence Johnson, were put on injured reserve today after suffering injuries in the loss to New England.

Jacob Lacey, Kevin Thomas and Chris Rucker figure to be the top three players at the position going forward.

Linebacker Zac Diles, cut by Tampa Bay, was claimed off waivers by Indy.

In Jacksonville, the Jaguars claimed and were awarded receiver Taylor Price from New England. The third-rounder was a bit of a surprising release by the Patriots.

It appears the Jaguars won’t have to clear roster space for Price until tomorrow.
Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

T.J. Yates held his own on a day Reliant Stadium might have been as loud as ever and the Texans boosted their record to 9-3, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Arian Foster was at the center of a giant drive that rested the defense and provided the winning points, says Dale Robertson of the Chronicle.

There is now officially a storybook quality to the Texans who are even with the Ravens, Steelers and Patriots for the best record in the AFC, says Richard Justice of the Chronicle.

Gary Kubiak motivated his guys by telling them about how they were an underdog and how it was an insult to the league’s top-ranked defense, says Jeffrey Martin of the Chronicle.

Kareem Jackson was among the defensive stars, say McClain and Martin.

Joel Dreessen added to his tremendous TD-to-catch ratio, says McClain.

At the scouting combine at Indianapolis, Yates was a low-ranking quarterback. Which meant he arrived early, stayed late and threw a ton as a combine arm who provided the passes for all the other prospects to catch, says Mike Silver of Yahoo.

Gary Kubiak made it clear he isn’t scaling anything back for Yates, says Jeff Darlington of NFL.com.

Eric Winston said if the Texans could win with Yates and what they have against Atlanta, they can win with it any time, says Clark Judge of CBSSports.com.

Indianapolis Colts

Dan Orlovsky led some late scoring drives and gave the Colts a shot to win, but it was too little, too late, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Orlovsky wasn’t interested in his good stat line since it came with a loss, says Mike Chappell of the Star.

Linebacker Pat Angerer and corners Terrence Johnson and Jerraud Powers were all lost to first-half injuries, says Chappell.

When the Patriots rolled early, the pace killed the Colts, writes Phillip B. Wilson.

Rob Gronkowski had a field day for the Patriots, says Wilson.

Peyton Manning’s interview with James Brown on CBS. (Video.)

Don’t take Orlovsky’s performance seriously, he’s horrible, says Nate Dunlevy of 18to88.com.

Jacksonville Jaguars

After a big week of change, the Jaguars and coach Mel Tucker turn their attention to Monday Night Football against the Chargers, writes Vito Stellino of the Times-Union.

Stellino traces Tucker’s path to his spot as coach of the Jaguars.

The Jaguars’ future in Jacksonville is in the hands of the fans, says Stellino. The only way to quiet speculation about a move is to sell more tickets.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans surpassed their win total from last year and stayed very much in the mix for a playoff berth, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Chris Johnson was sick all week, but it didn’t stop him from another giant game in another big win, says Wyatt.

It says a lot about the Titans’ resilience that they head into the final quarter of the season with a real crack at a playoff spot, says David Climer.

Injuries meant the Titans used a piecemeal secondary, says Climer.

Michael Griffin’s big play wound up with a favorable bounce for the Bills, say Wyatt and Climer.

RTC: Colts' defense can't change much

December, 4, 2011
12/04/11
9:39
AM ET
Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

T.J. Yates faced plenty of adversity while at UNC, so psychologically he should be able to handle a lot says Jeffrey Martin of the Houston Chronicle. One of his college coaches says he has “uncommon poise.”

The running game needs to be better than it was in Jacksonville, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

Lance Zierlein of chron.com says Atlanta ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards are defending the run well on the perimeter, which could be an issue for the Texans.

Indianapolis Colts

Larry Coyer is out and Mike Murphy is in as defensive coordinator for the Colts, but it’ll be difficult for the team to unleash much of a shakeup in the remaining five games, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Cornerback Jerraud Powers relishes the chance to cover Wes Welker of the Patriots today, says Chappell.

Six things to watch for in Colts-Patriots from Nate Dunleavy of 18to88.com.

Jacksonville Jaguars

When Shahid Khan first got to the University of Illinois from Pakistan, he signed up for fraternity rush, eager to meet people who weren’t like him in his new home. The man in line to be the second owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars is an adventuresome opportunist, writes Tania Ganguli. That’s why those close to him are certain the team will succeed under his guidance.

With Will Middleton done for the season, the Jaguars have lost their top three outside cornerbacks, says Vito Stellino.

The change at receivers coach was overdue, says Gene Frenette.

Tennessee Titans

David Climer of The Tennessean likes the fact that Mike Munchak doesn’t have an agent. It means when he says he’s not talked to Penn State, it actually holds water. But Climer says Penn State could do far worse, and likely will.

The Titans have been great when they’ve gone for it on fourth down, and their eight conversions in 10 tries have provided a bit of a boost, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Linebacker and special teamer Tim Shaw conducts a video investigation into the Titans’ facial hair for titansonline.com.
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