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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

At the news conference making Peyton Manning’s release official, Colts owner Jim Irsay indicated more roster moves were pending.

They came down Friday, and the remaining roster is a barren landscape.

Gone are halfback Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, safety Melvin Bullitt, linebacker Gary Brackett, and quarterback Curtis Painter.

All but Painter are proven players who played important roles in the system the team run under the team’s top executive, Bill Polian, and coaches Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell.

Those three powers are gone, and new GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano are starting with a virtual clean slate.

Addai is not the type of back the team will want as it looks to get bigger and more powerful. Clark, Bullitt and Brackett are officially injury-prone and aging.

Some of these moves bring accelerated cap hits, and might cost more than the significant salaries the players were scheduled to make will save.

But in a year, the team should be in much better financial shape -- and be adding instead of subtracting.

The next big question is defensive end Dwight Freeney, who's due $14 million this season and carries a $19 million cap number.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Colts of Chuck Pagano will gradually get bigger.

He spoke respectfully of the success the small and nimble Colts of Bill Polian, Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell had. But at the scouting combine he referred to an Al Davis mantra he picked up -- “It’s a big-man game” -- while emphasizing that doesn’t completely discount little, fast guys.

But part of getting big and part of being big in the NFL ties to an age-old football formula: To win, you’ve got to run and stop the run.

I asked him Thursday about his offensive philosophy, and here’s what he said:

“You watch the Steelers play, right? I’ve always said this and I learned this from my dad watching him coach growing up: You’ve got to run the football and have to stop the run to be successful at any level. So we’re going to be able to run the football, and like I said at my first press conference, you’ve got to be able to throw it also. So a good combination of the two. We want to be explosive, we want to be physical, we want to be tough, we want to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, most specifically up front with the offensive line.”

Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson will have a lot of work to do to shape an offensive line that can win like that, and they may not have the running backs who can be a key to that formula, either. (Incidentally, the 2011 Steelers threw the ball better than they ran it, and defended the pass better than they slowed the run.)

Plenty of teams win in today’s NFL with below-average run games and run defenses.

• The Super Bowl champion New York Giants were the NFL’s worst rushing offense in the 2011 regular season and ranked 19th in run defense.
• A year before, the Packers won the Lombardi trophy with the league’s 24th-best run game and 18th-ranked run defense.
• And while the 2009 Steelers defended the run well, ranking third, they were hardly a dominant rushing offense, finishing No. 19.

Pagano seems like an old-school guy. I understand the stance and the talk. But hopefully he and his staff will see that winning football, at least for right now, has a lot more to do with having a top quarterback and being able to hit opposing quarterbacks.

The new coach came to Indianapolis from Baltimore, where the Ravens made a habit of playing good run defense and getting a pretty good share of their offense out of Ray Rice.

While they advanced to the AFC title game twice during Pagano’s four years on the staff, they failed to win the conference or the Super Bowl.

Ultimately, owner Jim Irsay wants to see his Colts do more than that.

With the offseason in full swing, let’s take a look at one major question facing each AFC South team as it begins preparations for the 2012 season:

HOUSTON TEXANS

Can they keep Mario Williams?

He’s an incredible pass-rushing talent most every team would love to have. Yet the Texans might be in a position where they have no choice but to watch him move on as an unrestricted free agent.

They should have had planned better and not have allowed themselves to be in a position where the franchise tag is an impossibility. They cannot tag the defensive end-turned-outside linebacker for $22 million, so they either have to sign him or allow him to test the market. He talks affectionately about the Texans and what the franchise did for him, and that leads some to be optimistic about the team’s chances to hold on to him.

But once he’s out there and being courted, things can change in a big way with big dollars on the table.

Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed are great talents, but they’d be better, and the entire defense would be better, if Williams were part of it.

It would be difficult for the Texans to watch Williams lift someone else's defense and put up big sack numbers. He’s also been hurt a lot, however, and if that continues, maybe there won’t be so much regret if he moves on.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

How does the Peyton Manning saga sort out?

It’s widely presumed the team is parting ways with the four-time MVP quarterback.

It would have been impossible to imagine a year ago. But several unlikely developments have all come together at the same time -- the uncertainty surrounding Manning’s arm; the team’s ability to draft Andrew Luck; the dismissal of Bill Polian and Chris Polian in the front office as well as coach Jim Caldwell and most of his staff; the hiring of new general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano; other core players (Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, Robert Mathis) reaching the end of their contracts.

The soap opera has been long and drawn out. It needs to be resolved so the focus on the Colts can be about those new leaders, Grigson and Pagano, the messages they want to send, the guys they want on the roster, and the systems they intend to run.

Owner Jim Irsay has been sloppy as he’s tried to gain upper ground in a public relations battle with Manning, who has not comported himself perfectly, either, as he’s tried to manipulate the story. But for the health of the organization and for the benefit of Manning going forward, this thing needs closure.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Who can they add to help Blaine Gabbert?

No team should do more to assess the free-agent market for wide receivers than the Jaguars, who had a terrible, insufficient group last season.

Mike Thomas can be a good slot guy, but if the Jaguars really want to maximize Gabbert’s chances of success in his second season, he needs his primary targets to be much better. Jacksonville has plenty of cap room, and a new staff can sell someone like Vincent Jackson on the chance to be an unquestioned No. 1 and be paid like it.

Beyond the people he will be throwing to and the ones who will be protecting him, Gabbert’s new coaches will be a big piece to his progress. Can coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson get Gabbert more confident in the pocket and better able to focus on his reads than on the people around him?

The team has talked of having a better veteran backup behind Gabbert to help him. The Jags need that guy to be a safety net, too. It’s possible the 2012 Jaguars can compete for a playoff spot, provided they get sufficient play from their quarterback.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Can they become more of a playmaking defense?

The Titans got great contributions from several rookie defenders -- middle linebacker Colin McCarthy and defensive tackles Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug will be a big part of things going forward. So will strongside linebacker Akeem Ayers, who wasn’t as productive in his rookie season as the Titans hoped.

Will the team be able to find more playmakers to fill out their defense? Odds are cornerback Cortland Finnegan will depart as a free agent, and although the team hopes to re-sign Jordan Babineaux as one starting safety, it should be looking for an alternative to another of its free agents, Michael Griffin.

The Titans would be well served to find someone with more upside as a playmaker in Griffin’s spot. And although they still expect big things from Derrick Morgan, it’s again time to find a consistent pass-rushing defensive end.

They need to rush better from everywhere, which is why they hired Keith Millard as a multi-position pass-rush coach.

Getting bigger up front didn’t necessarily pay off the way they planned. Stopping the run first was a theme, and they finished 24th in run defense.

Gene Wojciechowski does a nice job in this piece of recounting Joe Montana’s separation from the 49ers and comparing it to what’s unfolding for Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts.

“NFL history repeats itself. The circumstances aren't exactly the same, but they're similar enough. Bottom line: Divorce proceedings between a generational player and the franchise he helped make famous are never easy. ‘It was horribly difficult,’ (Niners team president Carmen) Policy said the other day by phone, describing Montana's departure from the 49ers in 1993. ‘At that time he had won four Super Bowls. He was the quintessential comeback kid. He was so revered in the community, so loved in the locker room.

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Frederick BreedonIt's difficult to miss all the signs that point to the Colts separating from QB Peyton Manning.

"In a strong, strong way there are similarities in terms of what Peyton Manning has done for that franchise in Indianapolis. You almost can't think of the franchise without thinking of Peyton Manning. … To separate is really, really difficult and heart wrenching."

But I have to disagree with Wojciechowski’s conclusion. He believes the Colts should do whatever necessary to hold on to Manning.

“Maybe you push back the March 8 due date on Manning's $28 million option bonus. Maybe you say, ‘I want you to begin and end your career wearing the horseshoe, but you've got to work with me on this $28 mil. Can we restructure it?’

“Maybe you tell him, ‘Come back, play another year, help mentor (Andrew) Luck or RG3 and then we'll put together an organizational golden parachute for you. And if you play like pre-neck surgery Peyton, then we'll re-up you for another year or you go somewhere as a free agent.’

“Professional. Reasonable. Logical.”

But not feasible.

The NFLPA tells me the first renegotiated of a contract can take place at any time. Then the second cannot happen within a year if it causes a salary increase over the first redo.

So Manning's contract isn’t the big issue, actually.

The issue is every move the Colts have made since the end of the season has been intended to set up a fresh start and a new era. And as much as the Colts love Manning and appreciate his work for them, finding a way to keep him on a team that’s going to undergo a major rebuild under a new GM with a new coach and staff and with the No. 1 pick coming to town is impractical.

It’s too late to take the path Woj wants, and while taking it is in some way the noble thing to do to preserve what’s been a beautiful thing, it’s not the practical thing to do for the long-term health of the franchise.

It’s in no way easy. It’s incredibly emotional for all parties involved.

The odds that all these factors would arrive at the same time were incredibly low: Manning’s continued uncertain health; the secondary bonus coming due that triggers the remainder of his contract; the Colts’ terrible season without him that resulted in the No. 1 pick; the availability of Luck with that pick; Irsay’s frustration with Bill Polian and Chris Polian coming off that failed season that led to their dismissals; the hiring of Ryan Grigson as the new GM; the removal of Jim Caldwell; the hiring of Chuck Pagano as the new coach; looming decisions on three old-guard guys heading to free agency -- center Jeff Saturday, receiver Reggie Wayne and defensive end Robert Mathis.

If Irsay had decided to attempt to load up for a three-season push for another Super Bowl with Manning, I wouldn’t have had a problem with it. But he either had to go all-in in such fashion, or bail and start anew.

He’s already well down the path to the second strategy. And the Colts brass needs to line up with the approach Policy took with Montana.

There is a Jim Irsay-Manning meeting looming. There is a lot of talk about a decision still to be made. It's hard for me to imagine Irsay hasn't already made it and we aren't just waiting for it to play out.

The Colts held out too much hope for a Peyton Manning return early on, then didn’t do well enough scaling things down as they went 2-14. That’s the view of the team’s former offensive line coach, Pete Metzelaars, who is now Buffalo’s tight ends coach.

Here’s a snippet from comments he made today in a transcript provided by the Bills.

“We were so dependent on (Manning) and what he did. The whole offensive structure was built upon what he could do and how he did it. The way his injury took place, there was always kind of the thought that, ‘Well, he could come back, he might come back, maybe the recovery time is going to be X.’ So we found ourselves kind of holding out hope, ‘Well, let’s not change everything because there’s a chance he’s going to come back and when he comes back then we’re going to run it this way.’ Unfortunately, he never did come back. So we got stuck with kind of trying to change in midstream and put some things together, and the people we had trying to do some of the things that Peyton did, even then we cut it down, but obviously they’re not Peyton Manning."

Obviously, they should have realized that without Manning -- even for an unspecified time -- they needed to change everything. Doing so might have allowed them a better chance to win.

Not doing so meant the end for Bill Polian, Chris Polian, Jim Caldwell and most of his staff including Metzelaars.

But it also means the franchise is going to get Andrew Luck.

It’s a strange time in Indianapolis.

The city’s on center stage as Super Bowl host, and the early reviews are excellent. I expect it to be as good a week in a cold-weather setting as we’ve seen because of the easy logistics of a compact downtown.

A Super Bowl week gives a city a chance to celebrate itself, and Indianapolis is doing so.

But all of it comes with a big, hovering and unavoidable question: What will happen with the Colts and Peyton Manning?

It’s hard to find anyone now who expects the Colts -- with a new GM, a new coach and the No. 1 pick in the draft -- to pay Manning a $28 million bonus on March 8. When they don’t, he’ll be a free agent with questions about nerve regeneration and arm strength still lingering from the next surgery he had before last season started.

Colleague Elizabeth Merrill spent time in Indianapolis to get a sense of how it's feeling with its long-time superstar quarterback’s fate so uncertain.

When Indianapolis won the bid to host the Super Bowl four years ago, it never could have imagined this: That the big event would be played in the backdrop of a miserable 2-14 Colts season, with its seemingly unbreakable quarterback out with a neck injury and now presumably on his way out of town.

Is Peyton Manning done in Indianapolis? That -- and not the merits of the two Super Bowl teams -- was the big news last week. The Colts aren't saying anything except for an occasional statement that assures the masses all is well on West 56th Street. But change is thick in the air, from the firing of coach Jim Caldwell and vice chairman Bill Polian to the draft day that is looming with young phenom Andrew Luck waiting with the No. 1 pick.

"I think the mourning process has begun," said longtime Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz, whose lengthy and rare interview with Manning last week revealed a quarterback who is obviously uncomfortable with all the change.

"I think as the Super Bowl arrives, and as geeked as people are, there's this cloud where people are starting to come to grips with the very real, not just possibility, but the likelihood that Peyton Manning is not going to be on that team anymore, that he's played his final down as a Colt."

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

The Texans-coached AFC squad won the Pro Bowl, writes Nick Scurfield of the team’s website.

While the votes were really spread out, more players at the Senior Bowl said they’d like to play for the Texans than any other NFL team, says Tommy Hicks of the Press-Register. (Hat tip to Alan Burge.)

Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning is overshadowing Eli Manning and Tom Brady, says Michael Silver of Yahoo!

Steelers linebackers coach Keith Butler is scheduled to interview for the Colts' defensive coordinator job Tuesday, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

The Ravens are set to hire Jim Caldwell as their quarterbacks coach, reports Adam Schefter.

Jim Irsay denies plans for Manning are set.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jack Del Rio is the new defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Mike Mularkey’s son, Patrick Mularkey, has moved from the scouting department to the strength and conditioning staff, says Ganguli.

Shahid Khan’s yacht is docked in Jacksonville and it’s for sale, says Matt Soergel of the Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck breaks down the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl with Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Wyatt broke down the Titans with a look at 2011 salaries.

Peyton Manning has spoken of all the people disappearing from the Indianapolis Colts' headquarters.

As Chuck Pagano puts his coaching staff together, six more Colts could soon be former Colts. Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen, assistant to the offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, tight ends coach Ricky Thomas, running backs coach David Walker, assistant offensive line coach Ron Prince and assistant strength and conditioning coach Richard Howell remain under contract, flapping in the breeze.

Most significant among them is Christensen, who really ranks as the one prominent remaining link to Manning.

Pagano is a defensive guy, and his decision on offensive coordinator will be gigantic considering that coach will be the central figure in the development of Andrew Luck, the quarterback the Colts will draft with the No. 1 overall pick barring some crazy development.

It’s hard to imagine Christensen would be that guy, and parting with the guy who’s been the Colts’ coordinator for the past two seasons would in many ways be the final piece of a transition. From 2002-07 Christensen was Indianapolis’ wide receivers coach and in 2008 he had an assistant head coach title added. Then he took over for Tom Moore in the sort of transition the Colts set up for with their older coaches under Tony Dungy and then Jim Caldwell.

Christensen is continuity for Manning, one last presence from the old guard, one remaining significant connection to the offense he’s been running his whole career.

Of the six remaining assistants, I suspect a few remain became of their contracts. Cooter was in his first year in his role in 2011, Walker was in his first year with the team and Prince was in his second.

With 10 seasons in Indianapolis, Christensen ranks second to only Howell among the remaining staff.

When Pagano makes a move at offensive coordinator, odds are he will cut the last significant tie to Manning’s offense.

Then the only move left to be made by the Colts pertaining to their new era will be with Manning himself.

A quick zip around the division to catch up on some things that have happened while I had a few days off.

The trio of coaches charged with shaping Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville is in place: coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterback coach Greg Olsen. Olsen comes to the Jaguars from the Buccaneers where he worked with Josh Freeman, who regressed badly last season. Everyone’s got a clean slate now, and these coaches will be judged largely on what they are able to make of Gabbert in his second season.

The Colts' list of candidates to be the new head coach is not going to excite the general population. There seems to be a lot of buzz about Jim Tressel, and it appears he’s met with the team twice, but we don’t know who else has and it may be a mistake to label him the front-runner. It’s funny: When the team brought him aboard as a meager replay consultant, we tried to find a connection and label him as a Bill Polian guy, a Chris Polian guy or a Jim Caldwell guy. Whether he’s the next coach or not, it turns out he was a Jim Irsay guy.

Dave McGinnis has been a valuable member of the Titans' coaching staff for years. He’s left to re-join Jeff Fisher in St. Louis. While Mike Munchak will miss McGinnis as a sounding board, the addition of Keith Millard as a pass-rushing coach looks like a smart one. The Titans have not traditionally rushed the passer well from beyond the defensive line. The league is specializing, and having a coach who goes beyond positions to teach a set of skills is a fresh approach in Tennessee.

Texans center Chris Myers, Texans defensive lineman Antonio Smith and Jaguars special-teamer Montell Owens were added to the AFC Pro Bowl roster. Wade Phillips was named assistant coach of the year by the Pro Football Writers of America and Pro Football Weekly. Congrats to all.

A short break from a few days away because Bob Kravitz’s piece out of an extensive conversation with Peyton Manning calls for comment.

Manning never speaks without purpose. Did he know Rob Lowe’s character in “The Outsiders” was Sodapop Curtis or did he have to look it up? It doesn’t matter. Mentioning it as he addressed Lowe’s tweet report of Manning’s pending retirement helped him put a laugh right at the top of his message.

We can read between the lines; that’s always the fun game to play out of such interviews. He likes to reset the message when he feels it’s off or when he goes too long without being heard from. And saying a lot now means, hopefully, that he can minimize his presence next week when his brother, Eli, takes center stage. Peyton won’t want to steal any of that focus.

He’s used to being in control and he’s used to familiar surroundings. Now, as he rehabs his neck and wonders about his future, he’s got little control and is working in a building where long-time friends and colleagues are packing up their offices.

From Kravitz’s piece:

"I'm not in a very good place for healing, let's say that," he said, referring to the practice facility. "It's not a real good environment down there right now, to say the least. Everybody's walking around on eggshells. I don't recognize our building right now. There's such complete and total change."

Certainly Manning controlled a lot about how the Colts played and ran their offense. He had an influence on the direction of things. He had strong relationships with Jim Irsay, Bill Polian, Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell and many others.

He also played into the Polian paranoia and the thing where only a small circle of people were in the know, and that’s part of what Irsay has chosen to blow up with big change. That’s an overall good development. I don't know if Manning thinks so or not.

Manning certainly likes control, and obsessing over details is his prerogative and part of what has made him great. But I believe his actual control over a lot of things has been generally overplayed.

It’s a lonely existence for him right now.

The only players at team headquarters are other rehabbing guys. The GM is new and his door is likely closed -- Ryan Grigson said he needed to dig into film to learn his roster and would put a do not disturb sign on his doorknob.

Grigson and Irsay are also trying to finalize their coaching search and hire Caldwell’s successor.

Manning doesn’t get to control who’s around him. And once the Patriots arrive in town and take over the Colts’ facility, he doesn’t even get to go to the office.

Manning is set to host a Super Bowl week party in his home city, but I expect he will do his best to be in the background or invisible through the week.

He’s sent a message for now, but it’s hardly conclusive.

"I mean, it's 20 degrees, it's snowing, the building is absolutely empty except when you see coaches cleaning out their offices," he said. "I guess it's the reality of the football world, just not something I've had to deal with very often. But I'm in there every day, so I have to sit there and see it. Everybody's being evaluated and I'm no different. It's not the best environment.

"I just want to pay tribute to all those guys. It's unfortunate because so many of them have been such a big part of so many big wins here, and this is so ... sudden. Their keys didn't work the next day. There's no other way to do it? I don’t know. That's hard to see, all these people leaving.

"And I may be behind them. Who knows?"

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

As the Houston Chronicle starts a lengthy series evaluating the Texans, John McClain looks at the work of Rick Smith and the front office and the challenges ahead.

End-of-season grades and awards from McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Jim Caldwell’s exit means the Colts will be moving on from Peyton Manning in the analysis of Bob Kravitz on the Indianapolis Star. “(Jim) Irsay and (Ryan) Grigson keep talking about ‘rebuilding’ and how this is a ‘new era.’ ‘Rebuilding’ and ‘new era’ sound a lot more like (Andrew) Luck than Manning to me."

Players were saddened but not shocked by the Caldwell news, says Phil Richards of the Star.

“The fate of his assistants, many of whom remain under contract and currently are scattered on vacation, remains uncertain,” says Mike Chappell of the Star.

Phillip B. Wilson of the Star thinks Grigson is “going after a strong-minded individual, perhaps someone who is different in personality than what we have been accustomed to for more than a decade” with Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell.

A lengthy list of available and/or qualified guys, from Wilson.

“The revelation that Grigson has not even spoken to (Peyton) Manning was jarring,” writes Nate Dunlevy of Colts Authority. “The fact is that if the Colts thought it was likely that Manning would be healthy next year, they would be handling things very differently. Irsay's claims about being committed to Manning 'if he's healthy' are true. But the Colts clearly don't believe he's healthy.”

Moving on from Manning is inevitable now, says Alex Marvez of FoxSports.com.

For the rebuilding Colts, change was the only choice, says Don Banks of SI.com.

It was the right move, says Clark Judge of CBSSports.com.

Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson talk replacement candidates at CBSSports.com.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars will interview Ron Zook about an assistant job, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union. Two former Jaguars players, Marlon McCree and Paul Spicer, have joined the team as entry-level assistants.

Vito Stellino of the Times-Union offers a rundown of a rally where Shahid Khan and Mike Mularkey spoke.

Tennessee Titans

Character played a role in Mike Munchak’s hiring of Brett Maxie as defensive backs coach, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Jeff Fisher is the right coach for the Rams right now, but he coaches under a glass ceiling, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

Ryan Grigson’s history and experience could lead him to look to the college ranks for the Colts' next coach.

Grigson worked as a college scout for the St. Louis Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles before graduating to director of college scouting and then director of player personnel for the Eagles.

In those roles and for the bulk of his time working in the NFL, he interacted more with college coaches than pro assistants. He said Tuesday he's got a short list heading into what will be an expansive search. I wonder if it might include another midwestern guy like Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz?

It’s very easy to connect dots from Grigson to Marty Mornhinweg from Andy Reid’s staff or to think he’d look to some sort of connection to his time with the Rams from 1999-2003.

But the search will be much broader than that. We can’t pretend to know who’s on that short list but given his background I'd be surprised if we don't hear a college name surface for the first time in this NFL offseason.

Grigson and, oddly, Caldwell, interviewed former Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo for the team’s defensive coordinator post on Monday.

Grigson was asked today if he’d allow for a college coach as a prime candidate, but he didn’t address that specifically.

He said leadership tops a long list of components the team wants in a new coach.

"We want strong leadership and we want someone that shares this vision in this new era of Colts football," Grigson said. "We want the best man and the best leader and the person that's going to get us where we want to go. And we're going to find that man."

One of the few compelling reasons to stick with Jim Caldwell was to keep familiar people in place for Peyton Manning.

So, as the Colts announce that Caldwell is out as coach of the Colts, the question right on the heels of who’s next is: What does it mean for Manning?

His $28 million bonus is due in early March, and there is no getting around it: The Colts have to either pay it to keep him under contract or let him go before it’s due to avoid it.

Owner Jim Irsay has said that if Manning is healthy and playing in the NFL, he’ll be doing so with the Colts.

But since then, Irsay has fired vice chairman Bill Polian and general manager Chris Polian and hired general manager Ryan Grigson.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Grigson and the Colts pass on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Do they want a $28 million charge and Manning, coming off a third neck surgery in a short span, to be there with Luck?

Grigson will now be hiring a new coach who will be hiring a new coordinator (and presumably a quarterbacks coach) to work with the team’s signal-callers.

The Colts will remain at the forefront of NFL off-the-field news until we see that coach contribute to a decision on Manning.

The buzz is growing that the Colts are going to stick with Jim Caldwell as their coach.

Mike Chappell senses it. Phillip B. Wilson thinks the Colts would be fooling themselves.

I think if new general manager Ryan Grigson retains Caldwell it will be in large part because owner Jim Irsay convinced him to. If Peyton Manning is back, having Caldwell and the offensive staff in place will make things far smoother. But continuity is a hard thing to sell as relevant when the thing you're looking for carryover from is branded with a 2-14 record.

As Wilson points out, there will be a giant fan backlash.

The Colts can’t make a decision based on that. But with a chance for 2012 to be a fresh start, they have to know that sticking with the coach who was at the helm for a disaster won’t be well received at a time when they could make a move and regain a great deal of support.

Caldwell takes too much grief, I believe. He had more to do with the Super Bowl run in his first season that he gets credit for. The 10-6 record the following injury-plagued year was a big accomplishment. The biggest thing going for him now is that he held together a team that should have burst like a piñata at a 5-year-old’s birthday party.

But consider this: Irsay has said that Caldwell has admitted mistakes in coaching hires and clock management. With a franchise that was under the thumb of Bill Polian, the coach didn’t have a ton of decision-making power. And in two big departments -- hiring and managing a game, he failed.

He also failed to alter the Colts’ approach dramatically enough when it became clear what they could not be without Manning. And he consistently stood in front of a microphone and talked about how Curtis Painter was improving when everyone knew he was not. Dan Orlovsky should have replaced him sooner.

That’s a long list of errors that, when weighed against holding a team together and being a good man, would seem to sway the scale against him.

If the team announces in the next couple days that he’s staying, I hope Grigson and Irsay will talk about how those things come to balance in their judgment.

And if Caldwell’s back, I hope he loosens up in the post-Polian era and proves to be a better coach.