AFC South: Michael Crabtree
» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/26) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)
Each week leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: History at the spot.
No. 20: Houston Texans
No. 20 has produced productive players in the last five years. Detroit tight end Brandon Pettigrew did reasonably well as a rookie. Tampa Bay corner Aqib Talib has nine picks in his first two years. Aaron Ross missed the bulk of his third season with a hamstring injury. Tamba Hali has a very respectable 27 sacks in four seasons. Dallas end Marcus Spears had only 27 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2009. Quality defensive backs have been there two of the last three years and that may bode well for the Texans’ chances to address corner or free safety. Two of those No. 20 picks were acquired in trades.
No. 31: Indianapolis Colts
No. 31 has produced a running back (Chris Wells to Arizona in 2009), two defensive backs (Kenny Phillips to the Giants in 2008 and Kelly Jennings to Seattle in 2006), a tight end (Greg Olsen to Chicago in 2007) and a defensive tackle (Mike Patterson to Philadelphia in 2005). Phillips was on IR most of last year, while Jennings and Patterson, a high-motor interior guy, have played in every game of their careers. Olsen’s fit with new coordinator Mike Martz is a question. I don’t think history will tell us a lot about what the Colts, firm believers in best player available, will find or do.
No. 10: Jacksonville Jaguars
There should be and will be quality options at No. 10 for the Jaguars. Recent years saw the 49ers snatch receiver Michael Crabtree, the Patriots select linebacker Jerod Mayo, the Texans pluck defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, the Cardinals grab quarterback Matt Leinart and Detroit pick receiver Mike Williams. Williams busted hard. Leinart is about to take over the job as Arizona’s starter. Okoye is still young with upside. Mayo was defensive rookie of the year. Crabtree had an ugly holdout, but San Francisco has high expectations for him in his second year. How are trade possibilities? Houston and New England got their picks in deals.
Tennessee Titans
It’s a coincidence for sure, but No. 16 has been spent on a defensive player for the last five years. The scorecard: linebacker Larry English to San Diego in 2009, corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to Arizona in 2008, tackle Justin Harrell to Green Bay in 2007, defensive back Jason Allen to Miami in 2006 and tackle Travis Johnson to Houston in 2005. The Titans will probably be fine extending the trend, as their biggest concerns are with rebuilding a defense that needs an end, a corner and could benefit from additions at safety and linebacker too.Further review: Mathis' sack of Smith
The suggestion from mdcady80: Although Addai's throw to Wayne was indeed a game changer, the sack on Smith afterwards was much bigger. Alex Smith was leading a counter charge midway through the 4th quarter, leading the 49ers past midfield. On 3rd down, Smith goes back for a pass, and gets sacked by Dwight Freeney, taking them out of field goal range and giving Manning 5 minutes to wind the game down. If the 49ers pick up the first down, momentum builds and a field goal or touchdown is almost certain. The colts didn't get as much pressure as they would have liked, but that sack was very timely and changed the course of the game.”
The sack was actually by Robert Mathis and it wasn’t San Francisco’s last possession, but it was a giant play nonetheless.
The situation: San Francisco ball, third-and-2 from the Indianapolis 35-yard line with 11:49 to go in the game and the Colts ahead 18-14.
The 49ers line up three wide with Isaac Bruce wide left, Josh Morgan in the slot left and Michael Crabtree wide right. Vernon Davis is a couple yards off the left tackle, standing up. Frank Gore is to the right of Alex Smith, who’s in the shotgun.
The Colts have nickel personnel on the field.
What I saw unfold after the snap:
Linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session, who had crept close to the line of scrimmage before the snap, both peel out to help in coverage, Brackett with Jerraud Powers on Davis, Session to the middle.
Defensive tackle Raheem Brock also drops back into coverage, leaving a three-man rush with right end Freeney, tackle Eric Foster and left end Mathis.
Foster is single blocked by center Eric Heittmann and doesn’t gain any ground.
Freeney draws a double team from left tackle Barry Sims and left guard David Baas, who give ground but do well to stave him off.
Mathis puts a spectacular spin move on right tackle Adam Snyder, acting as if he’s going to rush inside and going from Snyder’s right shoulder to beating him outside his left shoulder in the blink of an eye. Gore runs through the line where Mathis started, offers no blocking help, turns to the right flat and doesn't get there quickly enough to be of service.
Smith drops three steps from where he takes the shotgun snap, and by the time he sets, Mathis is just two yards and one step to the side away. He gets a hand on Smith’s shoulder, another on his waist and drags him down for an eight-yard loss.
Result: The sack takes the 49ers out of field goal range in their only foray into Colts’ territory in the second half.
Ultimate outcome: Indy’s offense runs 17 of the game’s remaining 24 plays as the Colts hold on to remain perfect at 7-0.
Posted by Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson
Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 7:
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| Fernando Medina/US Presswire | |
| The Colts can expect to see a lot of Steven Jackson in Week 7. |
Could there be complacency on the Colts' part after the bye? Considering the level of competition Indianapolis faces this week, this is a legitimate question. But considering the level of excellence within the Colts organization, I contend that a letdown is very unlikely -- especially with Peyton Manning at the controls. This could be the week to get the running game rolling though and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Donald Brown coming out party, which just might signify the changing of the guard at the Colts' running back position. Joseph Addai should still have a significant role going forward, but I contend that Brown is the better player and the lead job should be his. This might just be the week that he makes that happen.
Who are the playmakers to fear on the 49ers? Vernon Davis has been playing great and looks to have made a substantial step up in his career under Mike Singletary. He is extremely fast for a tight end and is capable of getting behind the defense for a big play. However, Houston has been very strong in defending opposing tight ends. The other receiver who needs mentioning is, of course, Michael Crabtree who is making his NFL debut in Houston. I have a hard time believing that Crabtree is in top-notch football shape. After running numerous routes and blocking in the run game, which is required in San Francisco, I would expect fatigue to set in at some point. He probably will only run a handful of different routes. Still, he is going to play and even without NFL seasoning, he is very capable of beating any member of Houston's secondary and making a big play.
Can Houston equal the 49ers' level of physicality? That is what Singletary preaches -- to be the most physical football team on the field on both sides of the football. While I do concede that San Francisco is more physical than Houston overall, the Texans did show me a lot last week in Cincinnati with their run-stopping prowess. The Texans could stand to do a much better job of moving defensive bodies out of the trenches however and if they are unable to get a consistent push this week, Patrick Willis will have a field day against Steve Slaton and Houston's struggling rushing attack.
How do the Texans' playmakers stack up with San Francisco's cover men in the passing game? Matt Schaub is playing at a very high level right now and his numbers over the past four games are out of this world. Obviously Andre Johnson has an awful lot to do with that, but so does Owen Daniels, who has become a consistent matchup nightmare and Slaton, who is very adept in the screen game. The good news for Houston is that opposing wide receivers have been doing a lot of damage to the San Francisco secondary, but on the other hand, the 49ers have been very stout against tight ends. Still, I like Houston's chances if Daniels is one-on-one with any of the 49ers' linebackers or safeties. Maybe this is the week that Kevin Walter breaks out of his slump and Jacoby Jones is quite dangerous. Nate Clements has been playing quite well for the most part, but Roddy White had a huge day in Week 5 and the San Francisco secondary must tackle better as a whole.
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| Greg M. Cooper/US Presswire | |
| Where can Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher and the Titans find a win along the way? |
In Week 6, the New England Patriots pounded the winless Tennessee Titans 59-0. In all honesty, watching the game film might be worse for the 0-6 Titans than the loss itself.
When can the Titans win their first game in the 2009 season? Surely Tennessee will not go winless this year, right? Hey, you never know. Anything can happen in this league. Coach Jeff Fisher's mighty Titans, 13-3 overall last season, have fallen.
Let's take a look at the games left on the Titans' schedule and see what their chances are of getting that elusive first win. Mercifully, Tennessee has a bye in Week 7.
Week 8 vs. Jacksonville
Current record: 3-3
Chance of Titans winning: 45 percent
How can the Titans win? They have two weeks to prepare. They are at home. And simply put, Jacksonville isn't a very good football team, especially on defense. But, the Jaguars did throttle the Titans in Jacksonville in Week 4 and they will be coming off a bye themselves.
Week 9 at San Francisco
Current record: 3-2
Chance of Titans winning: 25 percent
How can the Titans win? Eliminating the run is something that Tennessee might be able to accomplish. If they do, the Niners will have a difficult time putting points on the board. On the other hand, this game screams "Michael Crabtree coming out party."
Week 10 vs. Buffalo
Current record: 2-4
Chance of Titans winning: 45 percent
How can the Titans win? Are the Bills really that much better than Tennessee? The Titans' 2008 recipe for winning, controlling the clock and keeping games close, might actually work against the hapless Bills.
Week 11 at Houston
Current record: 3-3
Chance of Titans winning: 25 percent
How can the Titans win? This one doesn't look good at all for the Titans as we stand today. Start Matt Schaub -- and all his potential receivers -- on your fantasy team in Week 11. Chris Johnson would have to absolutely blow up for Tennessee to have any chance.
Week 12 vs. Arizona
Current record: 3-2
Chance of Titans winning: 25 percent
How can the Titans win? They can. But they won't. Arizona doesn't travel well, but the Cardinals really can throw the football. Needless to say, the Titans can't stop anyone's passing attack.
Week 13 at Indianapolis
Current record: 5-0
Chance of Titans winning: 10 percent
How can the Titans win? It is a divisional game, so there is a lot of familiarity here. But Peyton Manning potentially could challenge the numbers that Tom Brady posted this past weekend. Maybe the Colts have the division wrapped up and only play their starters half the game -- that is the only scenario I see for a Tennessee victory. A win isn't happening at Indy.
Week 14 vs. St. Louis
Current record: 0-6
Chance of Titans winning: 55 percent
How can the Titans win? It is hard to speculate that Tennessee will be considered the favorite in any game they play this year, but having the hapless Rams at home could fit that bill. Still, there are actual signs of improvement in St. Louis, which is more than Jeff Fisher's club can say.
Week 15 vs. Miami
Current record: 2-3
Chance of Titans winning: 40 percent
How can the Titans win? This could happen. It is being played in Tennessee and one thing that the Titans do well is stop the run. If Miami can't run, the Dolphins become very vulnerable.
Week 16 vs. San Diego
Current record: 2-2 (entering play Oct. 19 on "Monday Night Football" )
Chance of Titans winning: 25 percent
How can the Titans win? I love the Titans' chances of running the ball down San Diego's throats. But, I love Philip Rivers' chances of lighting up the scoreboard through the air even more.
Week 17 at Seattle
Current record: 2-5
Chance of Titans winning: 25 percent
How can the Titans win? Well, there certainly is a chance that both Tennessee and Seattle are out of playoff contention by Week 17 and frankly, strange things happen during the final week of an NFL season. The Titans' defensive line may just dominate the line of scrimmage against a makeshift Seahawks front.
Interconference matchups: AFC South/NFC West
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The AFC South's overall success in 2008 came in good part to its interconference matchups. They were a collective 11-5 against the NFC North with no team worse than 2-2.
What awaits the division when it faces the NFC West this season?
Last year doesn't give us too much information, but at this point in time it's hard to say anything but the matchups look favorable. In 2008 the NFC West was a collective 20 games under .500 while the AFC South was 12 games over.
Here are seven interesting storylines or factors that will come into play in AFC South against NFC West this season.
1. Slowing top receivers: Teams in the AFC South are built on the thinking that they have to be able to matchup with some pretty good receivers. Yes, Marvin Harrison is gone, but Indianapolis still has Reggie Wayne, and Anthony Gonzalez could evolve into a tough matchup. And the Colts, Titans and Jaguars know they have to try to slow the excellent Andre Johnson twice a season. Now the division also has to contend with Torry Holt. How does such defensive construction translate against a division featuring Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Isaac Bruce and rookie Michael Crabtree?
2. Super rushers in big-time matchups: Preparing for the AFC South means preparing for a big-time edge rusher off the right side. Houston's Mario Williams, Indy's Dwight Freeney and Tennessee's Kyle Vanden Bosch are relentless in their quarterback pursuit. Their matchups with Seattle's Walter Jones and San Francisco's Joe Staley should be something to see, and the ability or inability of Arizona's Mike Gandy and St. Louis' Alex Barron to slow them will be critical storylines in those games. And are AFC South left tackles assigned to stop those big rushers in two games a year -- Michael Roos, Tra Thomas/Eugene Monroe, Tony Ugoh and Duane Brown -- also equipped to handle Justin Smith, Chris Long and Bertrand Berry?
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| Aaron Josefczyk/Icon SMI | |
| The Colts' Peyton Manning could have big days against the NFC West's pass coverages. |
3. Unfamiliar defenses vs. Peyton Manning: No, rank against the pass isn't a tell-all stat. But St. Louis ranked 19th against the pass last year, and that was tops among NFC West teams. The Rams, 49ers (20th), Cardinals (22nd) and Seahawks (32nd) are going to have to show they're much better and can be resourceful if they have a chance to minimize the damage inflicted by Manning. Otherwise, he may well pick them apart.
4. Getting to know Jim Mora: Mora is the new coach of the Seahawks. None of the AFC South teams played against the Mora-coached Atlanta Falcons teams in the regular season while he coached that franchise from 2004-06. But Jeff Fisher's 1999 Titans lost to a San Francisco team that had Mora as its defensive coordinator. The Jaguars beat the Niners that same year on opening day, but don't have a player or coach left from that team, so aren't likely to find any help in it. Indy will have a little organizational recall of Mora's defense from a loss to the 49ers in 2001. The AFC South doesn't have a lot to go on, either, as it prepares to face three other coaches who have not been with their teams long. Fisher does know Mike Singletary -- they were teammates on the Bears.
5. How will two teams from the Eastern
time zone and two from the Central travel West: Including the playoffs, AFC South teams are 5-16 in games at Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Oakland since realignment in 2002. That includes 0-7 for the Titans, whose playoff fate could come down their first trip to Qwest Field, a Jan. 3 regular-season finale.
6. Will the Cardinals draw in North Florida: Things are not looking good for the Jaguars in the ticket sales department, and a visit by St. Louis combines with home games against Kansas City, Buffalo and Miami outside the division to make for a less-than-stellar slate to market. But the defending NFC Champion Cardinals are in Jacksonville on Sept. 20. If the combination of the Jaguars' home opener and Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin coming to town doesn't produce a buzz and a sellout, it won't bode well for what's ahead.
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7. Battle of the rookie running backs: Colts president Bill Polian once passed on Ricky Williams in favor of Edgerrin James, and came out looking very smart. In April, with Knowshon Moreno long gone, Polian tabbed Donald Brown ahead of Beanie Wells. This season the Colts head to Arizona Week 3 and will use Brown against a team that took the back Polian passed on in the first round. The Cardinals preferred Brown to Wells as well. Here we get close looks at both the backs from late in the first round in a game pitting the teams many rate as the favorites in these two divisions.
Entire division will go against Sanchez, Crabtree
The AFC South will get some early looks at some of the skill-position guys who've been taken in the first half of the NFL draft.
Everybody in the division plays the New York Jets, including the Texans in Week 1 at Reliant Stadium. The Texans could be the first to defend Mark Sanchez if he's the Jets starter from the start.
And the whole division will get to see and defend receiver Michael Crabtree, who somewhat surprisingly lasted until San Francisco took him at No. 10. The 49ers play at Houston and at Indianapolis, while hosting Tennessee and Jacksonville this season.
Another first-round quarterback, Josh Freeman, went to Tampa Bay at No. 17.
He'll likely see his first action as a pro at Nashville's LP Field in the Bucs' preseason opener on Aug. 15 and will be in-line for some more work against the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Aug. 22.
Monroe fits Smith's focus on foundation-building
NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Receivers Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin may wind up being NFL superstars. But from the day he got the job, Jaguars GM Gene Smith has talked about building from the inside out.
History suggests the Jaguars are a lot less likely to miss on offensive tackle Eugene Monroe than they would have been choosing a receiver, and surely their recent history of first-round failure at wideout was an influence.
Monroe doesn't have to be Jacksonville's left tackle on opening day Sept. 13 at Indianapolis. They signed veteran Tra Thomas as a buffer. Perhaps this puts incumbent right tackle Tony Pashos on notice. If Monroe is good in the preseason, might the Jaguars start him out on the right as he gets his NFL bearings, with plans to flip him to the other side in a year or two?
The Jaguars need to protect David Garrard better and give him better weapons to throw to. Without the time someone like Monroe can help give him, the people running the routes may not matter as much.
Jacksonville can sell this as a substance-over-style move.
And if the receiver market continues to be slower than anticipated, perhaps they still land a top-flight prospect with the seventh pick of the second round, 39th overall.
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
Greg in Chicago writes: Been a while since I read the blog. In re: Young, Cutler, etc... congratulations. You join every generation before yours in believing that those younger than you feel entitled.
Paul Kuharsky: Point taken. I just turned 40 and find myself saying, "Kids today..." too often. Nevertheless, I stand by the opinion. Jay Cutler, Vince Young and Matt Leinart don't strike me as guys who came into the league hell-bent on earning their way and proving their worth with hard work.
I covered Jeff Hostetler and didn't think he felt entitled. Same for Chris Chandler and Steve McNair.
Garrison in Indianapolis writes: If Edge gets released in Arizona, any chance the Colts bring him back? Given Addai's ineffectiveness since halftime of the '07 Patriots game, Edge would probably feel like he could have the chance to start or heavily contribute in a backfield committee a la Rhodes and Addai in '06. He still maintains friendships with a lot of the players on the team and his relationship with management is nice enough that he has a Colts Super Bowl ring.
Paul Kuharsky: Possible if he'd do it for cheap. His friendships with other players on the team are irrelevant in this scenario. And if the Colts draft a back, I think they'll probably consider the position addressed. Bill Polian indicated Friday he likes the crop he already has.
Kobe in Newport writes: will the jaguars still pursue michael crabtree or jeremy maclin? or will they go after sanchez? I think that getting crabtree or maclin opens up all of the options for garrard and mo-jo. That would make the offense explosive and the defense has plenty of holes but it also has playmakers. Can you give me a prediction of the jags this coming year if they get maclin or crabtree?
Paul Kuharsky: The pick could be Crabtree or Maclin if they are there. I don't see them taking Sanchez, I see them trying to trade the spot to someone who wants Sanchez.
I still think they'd be the last-place team in the division. They have a lot of issues beyond receiver and it'll be hard to address them all with one draft.
Tobin in Denver writes: Reading through the blog mock draft, and I am shocked you would make the statement that Clay Matthews is a high-character athlete. This is the same Clay Matthews that created the group, "White Nation," which featured a graphic with the caption, "arrest black babies before they become criminals" on Facebook as a junior at USC. Whether a joke or not, this is not high-character and can not be brushed aside as being a stupid college kid not knowing the extent of his actions. I can't believe every sports media outlet disregards this fact. I hope some of his new non-white teammates give him a proper welcome to the NFL.
Paul Kuharsky: A fair point for sure and I should have been more careful with my wording there. I do believe, however, that Matthews is regarded by most scouts and teams as a good-character guy who did something very stupid, not as a guy with an incident in his past that suggests a future filled with more of them.
Brian in Jacksonville, Fla., writes: Would love your opinion on the new threads. To me the home jeresey looks a lot like the Eagles and the limited teal in the away is a bit confusing as Teal is supposed to be the primary. The biggest point of contention is the lack of gold in the uniform yet the logo uses it for shadow effect. I do think they look sleeker but as someone who thinks the Colts have a timeless look it is hard to fully grasp the think stripes over the thick ones.
Paul Kuharsky: I think simpler is better so I like what they've done and I don't mind the disappearance of the gold. I like the predictable home and away setup for a team without a lot of history or identity. I agree with you about the absence of teal in the road uniforms.
The pictures I've seen of the helmets haven't given me a true sense, I don't think. I worry the sparkle may make them look like the hoods of some of those Camaros from the early 80s. Look forward to seeing them in person at some OTAs in June.
Tom from Tempe, Ariz., writes: Would the jaguars have any interest in trading for a veteran like boldin? his physical style of play would do well for their offensive mindset, and as alot of people question his ability to separate from top level corners and double coverage, wouldn't the huge focus on the running game open him up alot? ... or does this scenario seem really unlikely - if they could even convince arizona to give him up.
Paul Kuharsky: No. The Jaguars are looking to stockpile picks, not deal them. If they trade two for Boldin, they've addressed wide receiver and killed their chances to effectively address a bunch of other spots like offensive line, defensive tackle and defensive back.
Andrew from parts unknown writes: With the draft this Saturday everyone is trying to fill holes left in their lineup. Who are the free agents which might fill some holes in the AFC south (especially my Texans)if the draft doesn't play out they want? I don't think this in particular would necessarily be good, but something like adding Rodney Harrison to the team to teach the young guys how to play better, add depth at a weak point and teach the team how to win when it is expected to (like against Oakland last year).
Paul Kuharsky: There are no major answers out there -- more role players, pieces and projects. Now some guys can get released after teams draft their replacements. Harrison to Houston could be intriguing, but I think they want to be younger.
But I don't believe in bringing in veterans with the objective of having them mentor. Mentoring is a nice additional bonus if they can play, but they have to be able to play. There are coaches in place to coach.
Zach in Blacksburg, Va., writes: I cannot fathom why David "Deacon" Jones is not on the list. He is arguably one of the greatest defensive ends in football history. He was drafted in the 16th round in the 14th round. Like Jerry Rice, who tops the list, he went to Mississippi Valley State (for one year). Anyone that makes an NFL team from this school is of hidden and/or underrated value. Jones not only made the LA Rams team; he made the LA Rams into a team. He is one of their greatest players of all time. As an end, he redefined the position and even contributed to football vocabulary with the term: sack. All in all, the list is good and helps show that the draft isn't over after the first round, and in the case of guys like
Jeff Saturday, the entire draft.
Paul Kuharsky: Zach is referring to this post about ESPN Stats & Information's list of the top draft values of all-time, and I chose his note to be representative of all the complaints I've gotten.
It's not a subjective list where we said "yes, yes, no, no" as we listed guys. It was the product of a specific formula created by ESPN Stats & Information -- which is thoroughly described in a box in the middle of the blog post. Based on thos criteria, the guys who didn't make the list didn't score higher than those who did.
Ben in Nashville writes: Paul, with the Falcons trading for Tony G. its beginning to look as if Brandon Pettigrew could possibly be around at 30. With Scaife being seemingly unhappy with his contract, would it not be smart to draft Pettigrew and possibly trade Scaife for a 2-4 round pick (not sure of his value)? The kid from Cal that they drafted last year seems to have limited upside and really is just another OL. Pettigrew seems to be a perfect fit for what the Titans do and is a top 15 talent in my opinion.
Paul Kuharsky: I don't think he's there at 30 -- and I agree with a recent post by NFC East mogul Matt Mosley that Philly should take him, not a running back.
If he is still on the board, it would not surprise me at all if the Titans took him.
They could carry Pettigrew, Scaife, Crumpler and Stevens this year without much issue, and be set for 2010 without Crumpler and Scaife. Or maybe they'd decide Crumpler is done in camp. Scaife is not under contract now, so he's untradeable. And once he signs the franchise deal, he's getting nearly $5 million, which people won't be anxious to trade for.
Harry in Nashville writes: Hey Paul, sorry I just missed you on the chat. Had a few questions for you though. Did VY seal his fate by making the comments about "just collecting his checks" earlier this week? Is it out of the realm of possibility that the Titans would draft a qb this year for the practice squad? Did Pacman end the chances of Percy Harvin becoming a Titan? If you were the GM would you take a CB, DE, or LB with the 1st pick?
Paul Kuharsky: Young's fate will be sealed by how he plays and acts, not by what he says in an interview.
You can't draft someone for the practice squad, anyone in the league could sign him away for his 53-man roster at any time.
If I'm the GM, I wait and see what's there. In the bloggers' mock I took Alphonso Smith.
If they don't fear Harvin -- and I believe they do -- they should.
Reading the coverage: Everybody's last best guess
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
- Rick Gosselin's final mock draft.
- Jay Glazer's final mock draft.
- A 32 questions draft edition from Mike Silver.
- Mike Freeman lists 100 things he'd rather do than watch the draft.
Houston Texans
- Jerome Solomon says Bob McNair and the Texans have gotten better at this.
- Players out of Texas taken high in the first round are hardly a sure thing, writes John McClain.
- Past picks at No. 15 have been more fizzle than sizzle, says McClain.
- McClain's final mock still has the Texans taking Clay Matthews.
- Lance Zierlein makes a couple trades in his mock.
Indianapolis Colts
- Bob Kravitz says this is when Bill Polian earns his money.
- Free-agent corner Keiwan Ratliff signed with the Steelers, says Mike Chappell.
- The Colts will watch a lot of things sort out before they get a sense of their possibilities at No. 27, writes Chappell.
- No. 2 and No. 1 on John Oehser's list of the top 25 picks of the Polian era. This was a great idea that gave us a lot to ponder over the last several weeks.
- Oehser reviews mock prognostications for the Colts.
- Curse insurance. Peyton Manning's not the Madden cover boy.
- June 6 is the day the Colts will hold an open practice at Franklin College. Tickets will be $10, says Oehser.
- Polian can pronounce Peria Jerry's name, points out Oehser.
- Oehser selects the best pick at each first-round spot for the Colts in their history.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- The moment of truth has arrived for Gene Smith, writes Vito Stellino.
- Peter King says the Jaguars turned down No. 23 and No. 47 from New England for No. 8.
- Michael C. Wright is sticking with B.J. Raji for the Jaguars in his final mock draft.
- A judge has been asked to revoke Jimmy Smith's bail, reports Jim Schoettler.
- Gene Frenette says Smith has slowed down the timetable to become part of the Pride of the Jaguars that honors their all-time greats.
- A look at the guy on the other end of the phone in New York, from Ryan Robinson of Jaguars.com.
- Smith won't be unprepared, says Vic Ketchman of Jaguars.com.
- Cole Pepper says it'll be Michael Crabtree at No. 8, and Malcolm Jenkins if the Jaguars trade back.
Tennessee Titans
- The last four first-rounders were immediate contributors. Jim Wyatt asks whether the Titans continue the trend.
- The guys at the Tennessean make their picks and sample the national choices.
- Chuck Cecil isn't worried about the Titans replacing Albert Haynesworth, writes Jonathan Hutton.
- Joe Biddle would like to see the Titans with Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards.
- Wyatt runs through a mock draft done by a group of beat writers from around the country.
Pre-draft edition: What I think they're thinking
What I think they are thinking inside the headquarters of the four AFC South teams on the eve of the draft:
Those writers, columnists, analysts and bloggers are clowns. They have no idea what we're going to do or who we like. But pass the clips packet around, we want to see what they have to say anyway, just for giggles.
A lot of speculation says we'll go linebacker at No. 15 and we could. But if the right defensive end or cornerback is there, we could go that way too. We could cause a riot if we go offense first. We'll tip the Houston authorities if we're going that direction.
We'd sure like to bump back to get extra picks -- the more candidates we have for jobs and roster spots, particularly for a defense with a new coordinator, the better.
Those writers, columnists, analysts and bloggers are fools. They have no idea what we're going to do or who we like. We don't even have the time to read that stuff for laughs, though we might squeeze in a second here and there for the ones about our great first-round hit rate.
We're not constructed like the majority of teams in the league. They don't have our quarterback to build around and protect, our linebackers aren't big enough for them, and our corners might not excel at the man coverage they like to play. Those factors enhance the chances that -- early, middle and late in this draft -- players we really like for what we do will be available to us.
All we've got to do is wait to go on the clock and snatch them up. Then we'll find a few more as undrafted free agents.
Those writers, columnists, analysts and bloggers are jokers. They have no idea what we're going to do or who we like. But it's nice to see us at the center off all this speculation, and we hope they saw the new uniforms and understand how the fresh start in look will extend from our threads to our roster.
Has Mark Sanchez gotten so hot that someone will have to trade over us at No. 8 to go get him? Bummer. That's unfortunate, but we will still benefit. If someone goes ahead of us for him, that means one more player we might covet -- Michael Crabtree? Jeremy Maclin? B.J. Raji? One of the top offensive tackles? -- will be pushed back and still on the board when our turn comes.
It's the first draft for GM Gene Smith and it is important to make a good first impression here.
Those writers, columnists, analysts and bloggers are windbags. They have no idea what we're going to do or who we like. (One former player turned radio host said he'd jump off a bridge in downtown Nashville if we took a center with that first pick. Let's nudge up those grades on Alex Mack, Eric Wood and Max Unger, boys.)
With no glaring need, we've got a heck of a deal here. Our hope is the teams picking 16-29 all don't value the guy we have rated 16th very highly, or keep finding someone they like a bit better. Then our choice is simple and we just haul in a great player who will eventually be a fixture for us.
Later, we'll make a couple deals to move up a bit to ensure we get a couple people we really see as fits. We can't trade our four compensatory selections, but 10 picks aren't making this roster, even to upgrade the back end.
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
If the first round of the NFL draft went as Mel Kiper Jr. envisions in his final mock draft (Insider subscription required) -- and we know it doesn't ever work like that -- I think all four AFC South teams would be quite pleased.
Here's Mel's final word, with some commentary from yours truly.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
To go from Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker as the top two receivers to Torry Holt and Michael Crabtree in the span of a few days makes the Jaguars significantly more dangerous.
15. Houston Texans: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
We've been talking more about tackle than end as a need, but with Maybin as a pass-rusher opposite Mario Williams on passing downs, free-agent addition Antonio Smith would kick inside and help cure the deficiencies there.
27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
The second-best defensive tackle in the draft would bring the sort of size the Colts have lacked inside, and his presence could have a trickle down impact on every other player on the defense.
30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
I don't know how the Titans feel specifically about Butler, but my sense is they'd prefer Alphonso Smith to him in this scenario. They talked Thursday about Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis and Smith forming the first tier of corners.
Reading the coverage: Who is Titans' third WR?
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
Mike Sando did his magic with Todd McShay's seven-round mock. I had a request for the AFC South picks, but have heard from more people who are mocked out.
John Czarnecki looks at the best and worst draft decision-makers, hitting the Colts and Jaguars on his lists.
Don Banks' notes as the draft nears.
Houston Texans
- John McClain sorts through what Rick Smith had to say at his pre-draft news conference.
- Alan Burge also picks through the news conference.
- McClain's Wednesday chat recapped.
- The AP's Texans draft preview.
Indianapolis Colts
- The top running backs are talented but young, writes Mike Chappell.
- No. 4 on John Oehser's list of the top 25 picks of the Bill Polian era. Lots of suspense building here, right? Maybe for how two and three are ordered, not for who's No. 1.
- Oehser's look at linebackers in the draft.
- The AP's Colts draft preview.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- The Jaguars have checked in with virtually every team about the possibility of trading down from No. 8, says Vito Stellino.
- A rundown of the changes to the uniform by Michael C. Wright. Note the videos on the left.
- In a mock draft by Jags' experts they wind up with Michael Crabtree, says Cole Pepper.
- A Pepper blog entry with video of the uniform unveiling and a shot of the new paint job on the helmet, which I still can't get a feel for.
- Former Jaguars star Jimmy Smith was arrested and charged with possession of crack cocaine, marijuana and drug paraphernalia, reports Matt Coleman.
- The AP's Jaguars draft preview.
Tennessee Titans
- A roundtable discussion with Titans scouts from Terry McCormick.
- Jonathan Hutton talked to Mike Heimerdinger, who says he doesn't know who his third wide receiver is and that Lavelle Hawkins "wasn't ready to play" last year.
- A look at the Titans and linebackers in the draft, from Gary Estwick.
Mailbag: Why not a first-round DB in Houston?
Jon in silver spring writes: Paul, love the blog...have a question about the Texans draft needs. Im an old school Houston guy, and have been watching this team since they been in existence and one MAJOR aspect thats lacking is secondary...yet all i hear is them picking another LB or DL...when Malcolm Jenkins is out there, the guy from Mizzou is out there...what gives? Thanks.
Paul Kuharsky: I think it's that the linebackers are perceived to be more worth the 15th pick than the corners -- this corner class is getting middling reviews. I agree it's a need, especially when there is no guarantee of Dunta Robinson beyond this year. And they could well take a corner at No. 15. Really, it's too bad there is no first-round caliber safety. That would be a real solution, but this draft doesn't appear to have one. "The guy from Mizzou," I presume, is safety William Moore. He's rated as a second- or third-rounder and they could go for him there.
Chris Kirk from parts unknown writes: I've been waiting to see what you had to say about Rhodes leaving for Buffalo but I decided to go ahead and e-mail you for your thoughts. This move has to move Running Back up on the list of the Colts priorities to address in the draft right? I'm as big an Addai-hater as you'll find among Colts fans so I've been hoping for them to address that position anyway. That being said I could have seen Polian standing pat(no matter how much I disagree) since between Rhodes, Addai, and Ball/Simpson we would have had a nice mix of youth and vets in our Running Back corps. Looking back at most of the Addai apologists from your column about replacing a Colt a lot of them brought up Rhodes potential presence in a two-back system as a reason to expect better production from Addai. With Rhodes gone our already anemic run game just went on life support leaving us with one barely proven runner. With a number of mock drafts having Wells and /or Moreno available at twenty-seven and two Receivers already on the roster good enough to start for most teams how can the Colts possibly put Receiver as a higher priority than Running Back?
Paul Kuharsky: I don't think they are crestfallen that Rhodes is off the market, but I think they would have loved to have retained the option of coming back to him after the draft as a low cost guy for sure. This is one of the toughest questions of the offseason -- how much was Joseph Addai responsible for the Colts' run struggles, how much was on the line and how much was it that both were banged up?
I think a third receiver still ranks as at least as big of a need as a second running back, if they still see Addai as the lead guy -- and I expect they do. Look at it this way -- in which situation would you be more confident:
A) Addai goes down and they have to make do with Mike Hart, Lance Ball, Chad Simpson, mid- to low-draft pick or undrafted rookie.
B) Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez goes down and they have to rely on Roy Hall, Pierre Garcon, mid- to low- draft pick or undrafted rookie.
I think they survive A better than B, which leads me to conclude they spend a value pick on a receiver over a back. Also I think this is a much better draft for receivers than backs and there will be more attractive wideouts at 27 than runnning backs..
Hey, we could see receiver and running back as two of the first three. Bill Polian may think he can fix defensive tackle and linebacker with less than premium picks.
Holt deal gives Jags more freedom at No. 8
Give the Jacksonville Jaguars some credit. Though they've not been big players in free agency, they have made a couple moves that alleviate the pressure on them to absolutely spend a high pick on certain spots.
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| NFL.com Video | |
| Torry Holt signs a three-year contract with the Jaguars. |
ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton reports the Jaguars have a three-year agreement with free agent receiver Torry Holt, who in my eyes is automatically the best pass catcher on the team.
It can be worth as much as $20 million and comes with no bonus but a $4 million guaranteed base salary this season.
The Jaguars could still pounce on Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin at No. 8 in the first round Saturday. After Holt, Dennis Northcutt, Mike Walker and Troy Williamson are the team's receivers and that's hardly an all-star collection.
But by signing Tra Thomas earlier this offseason, they eased the pressure to find a tackle. And by signing Holt they've eased the pressure to find a receiver.
They will still, certainly, address those spots, but if they don't do so immediately, that will be OK.
Which may make Boston College defensive tackle B.J. Raji the best possible option for them in the first round if he lasts until No. 8.
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky
Team needs: Receiver, defensive tackle, offensive tackle, defensive back
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| AP Photo/Michael Conroy | |
| It's unlikely that Boston College defensive lineman B.J. Raji will still be on the board at No 8, but if he is, expect the Jaguars to jump. |
Plan B: The Jaguars have lots of holes and if they can't address one directly with No. 8, the way Smith has talked of building through the draft, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't want to bump back to gather extra picks. Maybe the Jaguars are really interested in USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. But they struggled to sign Harvey last season. It would surely be harder to strike a deal with a top 10 quarterback who they don't expect to start this year. Perhaps they want someone else who's interested to come up and get Sanchez here. The Jaguars traded into this pick last year, so teams will have a good sense of what it would take to make a deal.
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What is the Jacksonville Jaguars' biggest positional need? Scouts Inc. take: "After signing Tra Thomas, the Jaguars are now able to draft a project offensive tackle later in the draft as opposed to reaching in the first round for Andre Smith or Michael Oher. But, the Jaguars are not deficient in terms of glaring needs and wide receiver ranks right at the very top of that list. Michael Crabtree would be the ideal selection and in my opinion, as getting the best player in the draft at number eight would be a complete steal. Still, chances are that Crabtree doesn't make it that far. Is Jeremy Maclin worth that pick for Jacksonville? He certainly could be considering the position he plays and his big play ability, but overall, he isn't polished enough to come in an immediately be a go-to option. Two defensive players to keep an eye on are B.J. Raji, who is also unlikely to still be available but would be a tremendous get for the Jags, and Malcolm Jenkins, who could be exactly what Jacksonville needs to sure up their ailing and thin secondary. Mark Sanchez has been mentioned here, but I just don't see that happening." -- Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.
Who has final say: Jack Del Rio's desires will certainly be heard, but Smith made it clear when he took the post that he's got the final say on both draft picks and the roster.
On the Clock: Oakland Raiders, April 10.
Previous On the Clock: Green Bay Packers. The team-by-team series.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
