AFC South: Nick Perry
The AFC South made one trade and four picks as we unrolled our final mock draft during a well-attended chat.
You can see how it all unfolded in the chat, and we’ve got the full mock draft here.
The Jaguars could well stay put at No. 7. They may have no choice as we hear that the trade market is largely non-existent.
I hardly got a haul from NFC East blogger Dan Graziano, who made a deal with me as the Eagles representative.
As the Jaguars, I got No. 15, No. 88 in the third round and gave up 176th in the sixth round in exchange for No. 153 in the fifth. That’s not a win on the trade value chart, but I think it’s outdated. I got an extra pick and an upgrade. Maybe I should have stayed put and taken defensive end Melvin Ingram. But at 15, I got the Gamecocks cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who could have gone inside the top 10. This would give the Jaguars nice depth at corner, with Derek Cox, Aaron Ross, Rashean Mathis if healthy, Gilmore and nickel specialist Drew Coleman.
Oh, I forgot my first pick, didn’t I? So unsurprising was the Colts selection of Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
At 20, the Titans passed on Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in favor of USC defensive end Nick Perry. Tennessee could go corner, but they are hardly corner desperate. They aren’t desperate at end, either, I suppose, since they signed Kamerion Wimbley. But Perry’s got a combination of size and speed that can help the rush and make life easier on the corners the Titans already have.
At 26, my choice for the Texans was not especially well received by the masses. Prevailing wisdom says receiver, and that’s where I have gone in past mocks. But with Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston gone, that strong offensive line suffered two major dents. Antoine Caldwell or Rashad Butler will probably be good. But to bank on both seems risky. Put Wisconsin’s Kevin Zeitler in the mix, let him win one of those spots and the odds the line can be good again go up.
ESPN.com kindly provides space below for you to destroy me for these picks.
At least I hit on Luck, right?
That’s when James Walker, our AFC East representative, put out the word: “I’m willing to make a trade back with Buffalo at No. 10.”
Before anyone could respond, AFC South representative Paul Kuharsky announced he’d swung a deal with Dan Graziano of the NFC East. The Jaguars had traded the seventh overall choice and a sixth-rounder to Philadelphia for the 15th, 88th and 153rd selections.
The Eagles took defensive tackle Fletcher Cox at No. 7.
“By the way,” I wrote in an email to the group, “Seattle would love to trade back from 12.”
Then came the word from Walker, sent only to me, the NFC West rep: “Don’t make your pick at No. 12 yet. I have an offer from New England coming. Working out the point chart. First, I have to figure out Buffalo’s pick at No. 10.”
A few seconds passed before the AFC West’s Bill Williamson, unaware Walker had already made contact regarding the 12th pick, reached out to me in another email.
“If Melvin Ingram is on the board at 12,” Williamson wrote, “I might have San Diego come up from 18.”
This was intriguing. Seattle’s actual leadership had swung a deal with San Diego for quarterback Charlie Whitehurst a couple of years ago, so trade talks for the 12th pick seemed realistic. But the Seahawks also have a working relationship with the Patriots, having traded Deion Branch to them not all that long ago.
“Sounds good,” I replied to Bill. “James might also make an offer here.”
The potential deal with Williamson and San Diego was fleeting. Walker executed a trade with himself, allowing the New York Jets to move into Buffalo’s spot at No. 10. The Jets took Ingram, the player Williamson had wanted for San Diego.
The fun was only beginning.
Our eight divisional bloggers made four trades involving the seventh, 10th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 27th, 31st and 32nd overall choices, plus later considerations.
Five of our first-round selections in this mock failed to appear in our previous one. Jerel Worthy, Kevin Zeitler, Chandler Jones, Shea McClellin and Coby Fleener pushed out Rueben Randle, Andre Branch, Peter Konz, Kendall Wright and Mike Adams.
Courtney Upshaw, Dontari Poe and Stephen Hill made double-digit drops from then to now. Michael Brockers, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore and Cox climbed at least eight spots since last time.
We drafted seven defensive ends/outside linebackers, six offensive linemen, five defensive backs, four defensive tackles, three receivers, three quarterbacks, two inside linebackers, one tight end and one running back.
Mostly, we had some fun with the process. Thanks for coming along.
***
ESPN.com's NFL bloggers went through one final mock draft leading up to Thursday's start of the NFL draft. Here is how #ESPNbloggermock played out.
Analysis: We're going to hit at least one of the AFC South's four picks here, so we thank the Colts for that. Luck draws raves from all corners and gives Indianapolis another quarterback who could set high standards for more than a dozen years, like the guy he's replacing did. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: A no-brainer for Washington, which traded three first-round picks and a second-rounder to move into this spot to take the young man they believe will be their next franchise quarterback. Skins fans have already been wearing Griffin's name and face on T-shirts for weeks. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I burned up the email lines trying to drum up interest for this pick, much as I imagine Vikings general manager Rick Spielman will do in the coming days and heading into Thursday night. But my colleagues were too smart for that, and I was more than happy to scoop up Kalil and presumably put quarterback Christian Ponder's mind at ease. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying into the Browns' interest in wide receiver Justin Blackmon or quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Richardson is clearly the best offensive player in the draft outside of Luck and RG3. The Browns' struggling offense needs an identity, and Richardson can instantly give it a tough one. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Once Richardson went off the board, this became an easy call. The Bucs need to add a top-notch cornerback because Ronde Barber is nearing the end of his career and Aqib Talib could face prison time or a suspension. Even if Talib is able to play this season, he's headed into the last year of his contract. The Bucs addressed the position they needed to most. They can get a running back early in the second or third round. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Blackmon has long been a popular projection for the Rams. I'm not convinced he'll be the choice or even the first receiver drafted, but there was also a fear of overthinking the situation. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Eagles fell in love with Cox and were convinced he wouldn't get past Carolina at No. 9. So after the Rams picked Blackmon, Philadelphia offered Jacksonville the No. 15 pick and the No. 88 pick (third round) for the Jaguars' overall No. 7. Jacksonville countered by asking for a fifth-round pick (No. 153) and offering a sixth (No. 176), and the Eagles said yes. They get the guy they wanted and still have their two second-rounders. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: There was speculation that Tannehill wouldn't make it to No. 8. The Dolphins do the right thing by not trading the farm to move up to No. 3. Miami gets its quarterback of the future to reunite with Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. (James Walker)
Analysis: Defensive tackle is a consideration, but Cox is the only sure-fire player at that spot. With him gone, the Panthers go with another low-risk player. Kuechly was exceptionally productive in college and is NFL-ready. He can contribute right away and that's something the Panthers want from this pick. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Buffalo didn't like its spot at No. 10, and the Jets are hot on Ingram. So the two division rivals worked out a trade. The Jets get the dominant pass-rusher Rex Ryan covets, while the Bills get additional picks in the third, fifth and sixth rounds (Nos. 77, 154, 187). (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs take a sure thing and an instant starter who strengthens a good offense. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Patriots pull off a blockbuster trade with Seattle by giving up their two first-round picks (No. 27 and No. 31) for No. 12 overall and a fourth-rounder (No. 106). The Patriots, who were 31st against the pass, get the best safety in the draft. (James Walker)
Analysis: Floyd is arguably the most promising wide receiver in the draft. He would fit well in the Cardinals' offense while providing better value than the offensive tackles available at this point. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They wanted Barron, and after the Pats made the bold move to trade up and take him at 12, the Cowboys looked into trading down. But they found no takers, so they took the highest defensive player on their board -- a versatile defensive lineman who deepens them at a key position and allows them to be flexible both with roster decisions and on-field alignments. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I didn't get a great haul in the trade. But the Jaguars could consider Gilmore at No. 7 and get him at 15 while picking up a third-rounder and swapping a sixth-rounder for a fifth-rounder. Corner is not the biggest need after the acquisition of Aaron Ross, but no defensive end or receiver screams to be taken at No. 7 or 15. Trade details: Eagles sent 15, 88, 153 to Jaguars for 7, 176. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Buffalo is happy it moved down six spots and still landed its target in Reiff. Left tackle was a rotating door in Buffalo last season, and Reiff has the ability to be a Day 1 starter to protect Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side. Trade details: Jets sent 16, 77, 154 and 187 to Bills for 10. (James Walker)
Analysis: Things didn't go as planned in the first half of the draft for the Bengals, who watched guard David DeCastro, safety Mark Barron and cornerback Stephon Gilmore all get taken in the top 15. Defensive end isn't a major need for the Bengals, but it would be hard to resist taking a talent like Coples. Even though Coples has boom-or-bust potential, this is a pick based on best player available. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Chargers go for the best value on the board and take an impact defensive player. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Bears were forced to play their starting defensive ends, Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, on more than 80 percent of their plays last season. Depth, and a possible replacement for Idonije, was sorely needed. Mercilus seemed a better fit than Syracuse's Chandler Jones or Alabama's Courtney Upshaw. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Perry provides a combination of size and speed that should round out the Titans' top four defensive ends and solidifies the position for the foreseeable future. If he can get to the quarterback with some regularity as a rookie, Tennessee can make a nice jump on defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The decision here came down to Glenn, wide receiver Kendall Wright or cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. You could argue wide receiver is the bigger need, but Glenn is the better prospect. After failing to get DeCastro at No. 17, the Bengals turn to Glenn to make an immediate impact at right or left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: This was a tough call because the Browns need speed at wide receiver, and Wright and Hill are sitting there. But that's the reason the pick is Martin. There are so many more wide receiver prospects available than offensive tackles, so the Browns have a better chance of seeing a wide receiver fall to them early in the second round. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Lions' secondary was their weakest link in 2011, and starter Eric Wright signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during free agency. General manager Martin Mayhew isn't a need-based drafter, but the position is a high priority. I had hoped for Kirkpatrick's former teammate Mark Barron here, but he was long gone, and I didn't have the guts to take North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Could the Steelers have envisioned a better draft unfolding than this? Pittsburgh would've been happy with Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw or even Amini Silatolu. Instead, Poe falls into their laps. He becomes the heir apparent to Casey Hampton. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would have pounced on Poe, but Worthy is a highly valued player who fills a huge hole. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The offensive line was a team strength a year ago, but gone are the right guard (Mike Brisiel) and the right tackle (Eric Winston). Houston loves Wisconsin players, and Zeitler will be ready to be plugged right in. We also thought hard about Bobby Massie and Rueben Randle. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Trading back was the plan all along. Jones has the length Seattle covets in its players on defense (think Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright, Kam Chancellor, etc.). Jones also fills an obvious need for a pass-rushing defensive end. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: There were a number of possibilities here, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers loves to develop wrinkles off his 3-4 base, and McClellin is said to be versatile. It's possible the Packers could trade down and still get him at the top of the second round. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens are always looking for pass-rushers, and Upshaw gives them another tone-setter on defense. He replaces Jarret Johnson in Baltimore's base defense and plays opposite Terrell Suggs as an edge rusher in passing situations. Upshaw has drawn comparisons to LaMarr Woodley, so you know he's an AFC North type of player. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The 49ers face a long list of top quarterbacks this season. They lack glaring needs and should be able to find guard help later in the draft. Coby Fleener was a consideration, but the 49ers like their existing tight ends and could extend Delanie Walker's contract. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Seahawks need another tight end after losing John Carlson to the Vikings in free agency. Adding Jones at No. 27 gave them flexibility in this spot. Seattle entered draft week with 19 players from the Pac-12. Fleener would give them 20. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Bills aren't done with a busy day of trading. Buffalo gets back in the first round by swapping a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders with the Giants. Hill is a big-play receiver to pair with Bills starter Steve Johnson. Hill averaged an astounding 29.3 yards per catch last season. Trade details: Giants trade 32 to Buffalo for 41, 105 and 124. (James Walker)
Gregg Williams: I know Williams from early in his career, when he worked his way up to the defensive coordinator spot with the Titans.
As I tracked him after he left Tennessee, I thought he changed. Of course a coach who gets a head job, as he did in Buffalo, is going to continue to evolve. But in his time with the Bills and then back as a coordinator with the Redskins, Jaguars and Saints, his ego seemed to balloon. The recent audio tape gave us specific evidence of the sorts of things he instructed to do as part of the bounty program he ran in New Orleans. It illustrates what can happen to a good coach when he gets unchecked power and goes a long time without any interference.
The great disappointment to me is that not one player stood up to Williams or took a complaint up the ladder about the way he was talking, at least until the whistle-blower emerged. Or maybe someone did before then and was rebuffed, but I would think we’d be hearing from him now. If a guy listening to that Saturday night sermon couldn't or wouldn't object to specific talk of testing an opponent coming off a concussion or going after a player’s ACL, that culture is the big concern to me here. That’s the sort of thing Roger Goodell is surely looking to change with the significant punishments for those involved.
Exhibition games: I am a preseason hater, but the division’s schedule offers two games that will bring significant storylines.
Indianapolis is at Washington in Week 3, which will give us a matchup of the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III should be starting for the Colts and Redskins, respectively. And the third week of the preseason is typically the most meaningful game where starters play beyond intermission.
It will be the AFC South preseason game I am most interested in.
Tennessee travels to Seattle in Week 1, which is a ridiculous trip to ask a team to make in the preseason. Such things are supposed to be minimized now. But Matt Hasselbeck playing against his old team and Jake Locker returning to the region where he’s from and played in college make for some intrigue.
Our first mock: I gave the Colts Luck, the Jaguars defensive end Melvin Ingram, the Titans defensive end Nick Perry and the Texans receiver Rueben Randle.
I think all four teams would be reasonably happy with a first round that panned out like that. But I offer the standard disclaimer: Beyond the first pick, it’s all guesswork.
The NFL's transformation into a pass-happy league has sent teams scrambling for ways to keep up defensively.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock 
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson snapped up three of them for the division he covers. Six other defensive linemen and 3-4 outside linebackers found homes elsewhere in the first round.
Offensive linemen (seven), defensive backs (five) and wide receivers (five) accounted for most of the remaining first-round selections.
In keeping with the pass-oriented theme, Alabama's Trent Richardson was the lone running back selected, landing in Cleveland with the fourth overall choice.
And, of course, we kicked off the mock with a couple of quarterbacks.
Analysis: They look at Luck and see a young guy who reminds them of the quarterback the franchise selected first overall in 1998. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Not much mystery here. The Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to get to this spot, from which they believe they're taking their next franchise quarterback. The only way they don't take Griffin here is if the Colts take him, in which case the Redskins will happily take Luck. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Vikings would love to trade down a few spots, presumably with a team that wants to draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. But barring a deal, Kalil is the best player remaining on the board and the Vikings just so happen to need a long-term starter at left tackle. We're not buying (yet) any of general manager Rick Spielman's posturing about LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying the speculation that the Browns will take Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill here. The Browns tipped their hand when coach Pat Shurmur and general manager Tom Heckert skipped Tannehill's pro day to watch Richardson, the draft's only elite running back who can be the centerpiece of Cleveland's offense. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Bucs could be considering Richardson and he's a possibility if he stays on the board. But Claiborne is the top cornerback in this draft. The Bucs need a long-term replacement for veteran Ronde Barber and could need a short-term replacement for Aqib Talib, who could face prison time or a league suspension. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The Rams are eager to find weapons for quarterback Sam Bradford. They had a tough time addressing that area during free agency despite an aggressive approach that led to deals with Cortland Finnegan, Scott Wells and others. The last time the Rams drafted a WR sixth overall, they landed Torry Holt. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: If he catches on quickly and can have an impact as a pass-rusher, Ingram can be the final piece for a very good defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Tannehill shot up the draft boards fast and may be a tad overrated at No. 8. But Miami needs a quarterback of the future in the worst way, and this is the best of what's left. Both Matt Moore and David Garrard have one year left on their contracts, leaving it open for Tannehill to take over in 2013. (James Walker)
Analysis: There's a common assumption the Panthers are locked in on getting a defensive tackle. That could end up happening. But they're open to all options and Kuechly might be the best player available. This team needs help anywhere it can add it on defense. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Going receiver here is the sexy pick. But getting an offensive tackle to protect QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side is the smart pick. Reiff received great coaching at Iowa, which has become Offensive Tackle U. He closes Buffalo's revolving door at left tackle for the foreseeable future. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs would be thrilled to see Poe on the board at 11. He is the best player available who fits their biggest need. Poe has a chance to be a dynamic player on a defense full of young talent. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Seahawks ranked fifth in takeaways, seventh in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed last season, but their pass rush was lacking. Coples would give them a badly needed pass-rusher opposite Chris Clemons, who had 11 of the team's 33 sacks during the 2011 season. Linebacker is another need position. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Cardinals could also use an offensive tackle and possibly another receiver. Michael Floyd was a consideration here. But in Upshaw, the team would be targeting a potential No. 1 pass-rusher, providing welcome support for promising youngsters Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield. The Cardinals have no second-round pick, and pass-rush help is at a premium. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They were hoping Upshaw would fall to them, as he'd upgrade the pass rush instantly and could make Anthony Spencer expendable before long. But with Upshaw gone one pick before, the Cowboys stick with the national champs and take a safety to upgrade their biggest 2011 weakness: the secondary. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: Michael Brockers was tempting, but the pick here is Cox because he provides a pass rush from the interior of the defensive line right away and could be more NFL-ready than Brockers at this point. The Eagles are a win-now team that relies on its defensive line to pressure the passer, and Cox fits nicely into their interior line rotation. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Jets would like to go defense here under head coach Rex Ryan. But with Alabama DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw and safety Mark Barron both off the board, drafting Floyd is a good fallback option. Floyd has a chance to start from Day 1 opposite Santonio Holmes and gives quarterback Mark Sanchez a much-needed weapon. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Bengals need a starting right guard, and DeCastro is the best guard in the draft. Smart and fundamentally sound, DeCastro is one of the safest picks this year and would extend the Bengals' recent good fortune in the draft. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Mercilus is the best pass-rusher on the board at No. 18 and the Chargers would be happy to take him. He could be a slight over-draft, but he has big league potential. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Coach Lovie Smith expressed confidence last week in left tackle J'Marcus Webb, but rarely will you hear a coach say otherwise until he has an upgraded replacement. Webb was penalized 15 times last season and gave up 12 sacks, according to Pro Football Focus. Martin would provide an upgrade at a key position. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: They can go many different directions, but Kamerion Wimbley doesn't solve their pass-rush issues by himself, and Perry can help. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Cincinnati has done a great job in bolstering the depth at cornerback in free agency, signing Jason Allen and Adam Jones. But the Bengals, who eventually need to replace veteran Nate Clements, can't pass on the second-best cornerback falling into their laps. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Browns need speed and a deep threat. Look no further than Hill, who averaged 29.3 yards per catch last season (albeit 28 receptions) and ran faster than Baylor's Kendall Wright at the NFL combine. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: ESPN.com colleagues chose Gilmore in my absence based on an obvious need the Lions have at cornerback. Starter Eric Wright departed via free agency, and the Lions' pass defense collapsed in the second half of 2011. General manager Martin Mayhew doesn't draft for need, but Gilmore would address a big one. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Inside linebacker is a big need for the Steelers after they released James Farrior. Hightower excelled in Alabama's 3-4 defense and was the unquestioned leader on the nation's top defense. Seems like a perfect fit. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would gladly snag Brockers. Defensive tackle is, by far, their most pressing need, and the versatile Brockers is a good value at No. 25. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Randle's size will make him a nice target for Matt Schaub and the Texans, and he brings a lot of upside to an offense that's already quite good. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The Patriots need athleticism on defense and the ability to rush the passer from the outside. Branch can help replace the combined 20 sacks New England lost this offseason with the departures of DEs Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. (James Walker)
Analysis: In my absence, ESPN.com colleagues chose Konz, the draft's top center, knowing that veteran Jeff Saturday is likely a one-year bridge from departed starter Scott Wells. General manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly draft a center, but he might wait until a later round knowing he has 2012 insurance in Saturday. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens have a history of top prospects falling to them in the first round. Their luck would continue with Glenn, an athletic and versatile blocker who would start immediately at left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Receiver was the team's obvious top need heading into free agency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham bought some flexibility, but Moss represents a short-term investment. The 49ers could use another young receiver to grow with Alex Smith and, eventually, Colin Kaepernick. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Patriots were surprised such a top-end talent is available at No. 31. Sure, Jenkins comes with some character concerns. But New England's strong locker-room leadership will make sure it gets the best out of Jenkins, who has the physical ability to develop into a legit No. 1 corner. (James Walker)
Analysis: This was a tough call, because Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones just looks so much like a Giants pick. He's a super-athletic, high-upside pass-rusher from Tom Coughlin's alma mater. I mean, if Adams weren't on the board, this would have been a slam dunk. And the Giants still could go this way, or with Nebraska LB Lavonte David or Stanford TE Coby Fleener. But there's nothing wrong with Adams' upside potential, either. He becomes the Giants' starting right tackle right away, and if Will Beatty doesn't pan out, Adams has the ability to someday play on the left side. (Dan Graziano)
. This one is a two-rounder.
You want to know what he has your AFC South entries doing. I’m here to tell you.
1) Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
McShay: “An outstanding pro day workout, which confirmed Luck's ability to make all the throws and quieted questions about his arm strength, has cemented his status as the top overall prospect and the best choice for the Colts as they begin the post-Peyton Manning era."
Kuharsky: It’s going to be hard to have something fresh to say in response to all the mocks that have the Colts making the right move and taking Luck.
7) Jacksonville Jaguars
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
McShay: “Reiff is a safe, high-character pick who fits the draft style of Jags general manager Gene Smith. He will solidify the offensive line and provide protection for second-year QB Blaine Gabbert as he continues to develop. North Carolina DE Quinton Coples is the most talented player on the board at this point, but he's the kind of high-upside prospect who doesn't fit Smith's style.”
Kuharsky: If he’s the best value, I suppose it’s not impossible. But end and receiver are far bigger needs, and I’d rather see them trade back and address one of those. They expect Eben Britton to be healthy and be the guy they spent a second-rounder on not long ago.
20) Tennessee Titans
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
McShay: “Adding Kamerion Wimbley addressed the Titans' pass-rush need, so Kirkpatrick will fill a void at corner. He has the size, toughness and instincts to fit nicely in Tennessee's zone-heavy scheme. North Alabama's Janoris Jenkins is a better cover corner but will drop because of character baggage, but rising South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore also could be a consideration here.”
Kuharsky: One man does not the pass rush fix. Wimbley should help and take the pressure off picking an end. Kirkpatrick would be a nice addition. But losing Cortland Finnegan doesn’t make Tennessee automatically corner needy.
26) Houston Texans
Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
McShay: “The Texans need another playmaker opposite WR Andre Johnson, and Wright fits the bill. He proved his speed in his pro day workout, and Wright is a dynamic runner after the catch who also can contribute in the return game if needed.”
Kuharsky: He sounds good. But I’ve heard some concerns about the degree to which he was a product of Robert Griffin III.
And the second-round selections:
34) Colts: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
PK: His stock is up after a big pro day, so he may not last for a reunion with Luck.
38) Jaguars: Nick Perry, DE, USC
PK: Is a first-rounder in a lot of eyes, so this could be a nice value.
52) Titans: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
PK: Seems a value here, but with Jared Cook and Craig Stevens, the spot doesn’t rank as a need.
58) Texans, Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
PK: He's certainly suited for Houston’s zone scheme.
Considering Colts in the second round
We shouldn’t forget that their second-round pick, 34th overall, isn’t far off where they’ve drafted a lot in the first round in recent years.
They should get a top-flight player leading off the second round, and Kevin Weidl of Scouts Inc. has written an interesting piece
highlighting some of the possibilities.
Weidl knows some of these guys will go in the first round, but as he matches needs with prospects, he sees as possibilities: defensive tackle Dontari Poe of Memphis; defensive ends Nick Perry of USC and Andre Branch of Clemson; receivers Kendall Wright of Baylor, Michael Floyd of Notre Dame or Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina; Guard/tackle Cordy Glenn of Georgia.
Colts fans, I’d love if you read the piece and consider those names, the others he mentions and chime in with your thoughts below.
Early first-round, best-case scenarios
I asked Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. to give me a best-case scenario for the other three teams of the AFC South given the three primary needs I listed for each.
Here’s his thinking at this point:
7) Jacksonville Jaguars (rush DE, WR, CB)
Muench: "I don't know if you checked out Todd McShay's latest mock or not but he has the Jaguars taking North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples at seven. That's the ideal situation for them. Coples is a top-five talent coming off a strong performance at the Senior Bowl and projects as a Day-1 starter. If he's not there that means there's a good chance they can get LSU corner Morris Claiborne or Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon. Claiborne is a slightly better value."
20) Tennessee Titans (rush DE, S, G)
Muench: "McShay also has Tennessee taking Southern Cal defensive end Nick Perry, which fits in terms of value and need. I think the 'dream' pick however is Alabama's Mark Barron who could last until 20 and is by far the best safety prospect.”
26) Houston Texans (WR, 3-4 NT, 3-4 OLB)
Muench: “For Houston, getting Baylor's wide receiver Kendall Wright would be ideal but there's an excellent chance he's not there. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones is a name to keep an eye on because he projects as a late first-round pick and he has the potential to develop into an effective 3-4 outside linebacker.”
1) Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
McShay: “The status of Colts legend Peyton Manning is still up in the air after multiple neck surgeries, and Manning will be 36 years old next season. Meanwhile, Luck is a once-in-a-generation prospect with the physical tools and mental makeup to start from Day 1. Given the financial considerations involved, the smart decision is to draft Luck and part ways with Manning.”
Kuharsky: Barring some bizarre career-threatening injury to Luck, I can’t see how this does not happen.
7) Jaguars
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
McShay: “The Jaguars are desperate for help at receiver, but Blackmon is off the board and Coples presents great value at this point. He's the most talented defensive prospect in the 2012 class and showcased a versatile skill set and the potential to be a dominant player throughout Senior Bowl week.”
Kuharsky: You might think it would be hard for the Jaguars to go defense as needy as they are on offense. But they need an edge rusher, and they could well sign two receivers in free agency long before they go on the clock.
20) Titans
Nick Perry*, DE, USC
McShay: The Titans have three defensive ends set to become free agents and need a dynamic pass-rusher to complement Derrick Morgan. While Perry is raw, he has good initial burst and natural pass-rush skills. Cornerback, safety and offensive line are also need areas, but Perry makes the most sense in this situation.”
Kuharsky: He’d certainly help fill a need, but we’ll need to see what they do in free agency. It would be nice to get immediate impact, and the “raw” label always suggests there might be a long wait.
26) Houston
Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
McShay: “The Texans would rather get a wideout here to complement Andre Johnson, but Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu and South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery would be reaches at this point. A difference-maker at tight end would help, though, and Fleener is a reliable target with toughness, a competitive nature and underrated speed/athleticism. He could draw some attention to the middle away from Johnson, and with a deep wideout class Houston could find a quality receiver in the next couple of rounds.”
Kuharsky: The Texans could be in position to draft the best available guy. But they’ve invested a lot of picks in tight ends, and a healthy Owen Daniels is a premier guy. Beyond receiver, they could use outside linebacker depth and perhaps a corner.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
