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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars in 2012.

Dream scenario (10-6): Mike Mularkey’s offensive scheme does for Blaine Gabbert what it did early on for Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Gabbert silences his stable of critics, playing with newfound poise and confidence and finding himself in situations in which he’s comfortable and can show off the arm that was a big reason he was a top 10 pick.

The second-year quarterback is well-protected as he works his way through progressions and spreads the ball around to a much-improved receiving corps headed by Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon. With the passing offense faring far better, Maurice Jones-Drew's hammer hits even harder because his carries are less predictable.

Defensively, the team is healthy all season long in karmic payback for last year’s slew of injuries.

Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton put it all together, with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny playing great behind them, and no one can even ponder running up the middle against the Jaguars. Rookie second-rounder Andre Branch provides a serious boost to the pass rush, and the linebackers get involved in pressuring the quarterback. When they don’t get a sufficient push, the coverage holds up.

And rookie punter Bryan Anger regularly hits bombs and pins teams deep, semi-justifying his third-round draft status.

Mularkey wins coach of the year as the Jaguars qualify for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (4-12): New coaches, a new system and new receivers don’t make for a new Gabbert, and he struggles in his second season much as he did as a rookie. A rough start means the fan base calls for backup Chad Henne, and Mularkey finds himself in a tough spot with a quick quarterback controversy.

Henne eventually gets the call but doesn’t play much better, so the team is over-reliant on the run game. The defense, meanwhile, can’t overcome the lack of a pass rush. It gives up too many passing yards and too many big plays because quarterbacks have time to wait for targets to break open. Then the Jaguars begin to blitz more to amp things up but pay a price by giving up big plays out of high-risk, high-reward situations.

Owner Shahid Khan, used to life as a businessman who wins, says or does something controversial that makes things even messier. The Jaguars actually finish a game worse than they did in Jack Del Rio’s final season, leaving Denver’s defensive coordinator shrugging and people removing some responsibility for 2011 from him.

Houston Texans

Former Texans receiver Jacoby Jones welcomes his move to new surroundings in Baltimore. "Change is good in life," said Jones, whose muffed punt in last season's playoffs led to a Ravens touchdown in a game Baltimore won by seven. "It’s always good to have a breath of fresh air.”

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts appear to be feeling the absence of top draft pick Andrew Luck, who is missing this week's organized team activities and can't report to the team's facilities until after his final exams at Stanford. "For him to be here, taking snaps, building chemistry, the timing with the offense, timing with the receivers, all those kind of things ... it’s days lost,’’ coach Chuck Pagano told the Indianapolis Star's Mike Chappell of the quarterback. “It’s like money you never get back."

The team signed four more draft picks Wednesday: fifth-rounder Vick Ballard, sixth-rounder LaVon Brazill, and seventh-round selections Tim Fugger and Chandler Harnish.

Becoming head coach of the Colts "has been a whirlwind" Pagano says in a Q&A with Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Though he hasn't been cleared for contact, linebacker Paul Posluszny is participating in this week's organized team activities as he recovers from January shoulder surgery. "As far as working out, being functional, the strength, the stability -- everything is back," Posluszny, who expects to be at full strength for training camp, told the team's official site. "I’m still not allowed to be in contact, but other than that, it feels great. It feels normal to me."

The Jaguars don't mind practicing in the rain, writes Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert isn't taking his starting job for granted, writes Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

As expected, receiver Kenny Britt had minor surgery on his right knee in an effort to boost his return from torn ligaments suffered in September. The procedure will "probably accelerate his rehab," Titans general manager Ruston Webster told the Tennessean. Also in Jim Wyatt's notebook: The Titans have not had any contract talks with franchise player Michael Griffin, but the safety is working out with teammates. And third-round pick Mike Martin signed a four-year deal.

And after thoroughly examining other options at center, it looks like the Titans will go with one of their own this fall, writes Wyatt. Eugene Amano, the regular starter the past two seasons, will have to hold off Kevin Matthews, Fernando Velasco and rookie William Vlachos for the job, Webster said.

The Titans are in the running for former Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell, writes Terry McCormick.

Picking a starting quarterback can be a difficult proposition, but for the Titans, Webster says choosing between Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker could come down to a simple "gut feeling," writes Elliot Harrison of NFL.com.

1. Houston Texans: Wade Phillips did some great things with this defense a year ago. But he’s not the only member of the Texans’ organization who deserves credit for an incredibly improved defense from 2010 to 2011. Houston’s front office was very aggressive in addressing the defensive side of the ball last offseason. Now, Houston has big-time players at each level of its 3-4 defense.

For those who don’t yet know, J.J. Watt immediately established himself as one of the up-and-coming defensive players in this league. Not only is Watt is a fantastic hustle player, but he has ideal size and length for his 3-4 defensive end position to go with well above-average athletic ability. Watt will be a star. Like Watt, Brian Cushing did everything asked of him really well from his inside linebacker spot last season and has established himself as one of the better second-level defenders in the league.

Before last season, the Texans paid a premium to sign him, but simply put, Johnathan Joseph is one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL today. He is the total package and probably the best player on this excellent defense -- which is really saying something. The Texans could use one more cover man to step up, though. Overall, Houston is well-equipped in coverage and of course the pass rush helped a lot in that capacity.

Maybe what the Texans’ defense did best in Phillips’ first year was rushing the quarterback -- even without Mario Williams for much of the season. The Texans did add Whitney Mercilus to further enhance their threat off the edge and Connor Barwin could be knocking on the door of stardom.

Besides the first-round selection of Mercilus, who is in an ideal position to learn the outside linebacker position slowly, the Texans mostly stuck to improving their offense in the draft. However, Houston did land an intriguing prospect to play behind Watt and the underrated Antonio Smith in late fourth-round pick Jared Crick, who is an ideal fit for this defensive scheme. Only the Steelers, 49ers and Raves allowed fewer points than Houston last year. Don’t expect much of a drop-off this year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The AFC South has a shot to have two top-five defenses in 2012. Mike Malarkey takes over as the Jaguars’ head coach, but his focus will be getting quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s career straightened out and improving a dismal Jacksonville passing game.

The defense will be in Mel Tucker’s hands. Tucker wants a fast-flowing, physical and aggressive defense that doesn’t blitz a lot and gets most of its pressure from the defensive linemen. The Jaguars found a gem in Jeremy Mincey, who’s excelled in all facets of playing defensive end in their 4-3 scheme. But this defense really lacked a complementary end to Mincey, especially as a pass-rusher. Jacksonville used the No. 38 pick in this year’s draft on Andre Branch, who could help immediately on passing downs but offers little against the run.

One guy who let this defense down last season is Tyson Alualu, who really had a down 2011 season in all regards. Still, only three teams bettered Jacksonville in rushing yards allowed per attempt in 2011. A vastly underrated positional group in the NFL is the Jaguars’ linebacker corps, especially Daryl Smith, who does everything well on the second level. Paul Posluszny isn’t much behind Smith and was a fine addition to Jacksonville’s defense in free agency a year ago. The Jags’ secondary lacks star power but it is pretty solid at each position. The Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed last year. They could improve upon that in 2012.

3. Tennessee Titans: There isn’t a lot of star power here, but the Titans are very young on defense and could be poised to improve. Youngsters Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and others are much better players than many casual NFL fans know. Third-round pick Mike Martin should be the perfect complement to the run-stuffing Casey and the lighter pass-rushing Klug in the Titans’ defensive tackle rotation.

The Titans’ pass rush was a huge problem last season, as only Tampa Bay recorded fewer sacks than Tennessee, but it should be much better this year, especially with the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. Former first-round pick Derrick Morgan also should finally be healthy. This is a key season for Morgan -- and the Titans need more from him.

On the second level, the Titans are now very young and active. Colin McCarthy is a tackling machine and should quickly establish himself as a leader of this defense. Tennessee lost Cortland Finnegan to the Rams in free agency, but overall, their coverage people were above average last season -- despite that suspect pass rush. Finnegan had an excellent season, though, and will be difficult to replace.

The Titans look to be improved up front in their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, but not as strong on the back end in coverage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points than Tennessee during the 2011 season. Maintaining that standard could be difficult, but overall, this is a pretty solid group in just about all areas.

4. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts might have the worst defense in the NFL this season. Their run defense was abysmal last season. Indianapolis has nowhere to go but up in this department and additions such as Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney and Josh Chapman should help shore up the run defense at the line of scrimmage. Still, such a drastic scheme change really leaves Indianapolis in a bind on this side of the ball for 2012.

Although the Colts surely will not be playing with the lead as much as they did when Peyton Manning was behind center, the edge pass-rush presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis should still rank among the best in the NFL. Mathis was probably the Colts’ best defensive player last season. He can still get it done. I believe the same is true with Freeney. As good as Freeney and Mathis still are, just the Titans and Buccaneers sacked opposing quarterbacks less than Indianapolis.

Besides Freeney and Mathis, Pat Angerer and especially Antoine Bethea are above-average starters for their respective positions. But outside of these four, the remaining prevalent members of the Colts’ defense are littered with flaws. One player I am very high on is Drake Nevis, but Nevis was drafted to be an upfield disruptive three-technique. The problem here is that if Indianapolis goes with a predominantly 3-4 alignment, Nevis’ great penetrating abilities could be wasted. That is the problem with switching schemes -- players from the former philosophy aren’t well-suited for what the new coaching staff has in mind. This applies to many members of the Colts’ defense, which up until now was a fast-flowing undersized unit built on speed. Now this unit will be building to be much like what Chuck Pagano coached in Baltimore -- and Nevis is one of many examples of the problems with making such a change.

The Colts were not strong at all in coverage last year -- and it doesn’t look as though they will be much improved in 2012. They are particularly weak at cornerback. Indianapolis also had the fewest interceptions in the league last year. Pagano and his defensive staff will be more creative with their looks and pressures, which he hopes will leads to more turnovers created. Getting more Ravens-type of defensive players will be a massive priority for Indianapolis next offseason.

Nickel defenses are played more than ever in the NFL.

But the AFC South may be moving the other direction in games against each other.

The Texans are comfortable lining up with three wide receivers or splitting tight end Owen Daniels out into spread formations. The Jaguars and Titans figured to remain running back-centric. If the Titans get a bounce-back from Chris Johnson, they will likely run more. Of course those two teams can spread things out with the intent to run, of course.

But two games when AFC South teams loaded up with nickel packages are likely to change.

The departure of Peyton Manning from the Colts means one team that dictated constant nickel defenses is being altered. New coach Chuck Pagano has talked about running and stopping the run and GM Ryan Grigson said Monday he expects the Colts to be a fullback team.

A linebacker is typically going to stay on the field against a two-back set. The lack of a precision passing offense and weapons like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon will make it tougher for the Colts to dictate a team's defensive personnel, or to take advantage of it.

"The third linebacker or the nickel corner?” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said at the owners meetings, repeating a question about what’s more important. “You look at your schedule and say, 'OK, what are we going to play this year? Are we going to be in nickel all year, or are we going to be trying to stop the run?' I think that's what things will come down to.

“One year you might be out there in nickel defense 60 or 70 percent of the time. The next year it could be 50. It all starts with your division. When Peyton was at Indy, if we didn't have three good corners we were in trouble every time we played them. So I think you've kind of got to build your roster to compete in your division, No. 1, and make that decision."

This means the Jaguars will have two more games where they can play more with their great linebacking trio of Paul Posluszny, Daryl Smith and Clint Session on the field together.

This means the Titans' new nickelback -- whether he's an outsider or Ryan Mouton, Chris Hawkins or Tommie Campbell -- isn't going to be as important against Indy as recent ones have been.

This means DeMeco Ryans' replacement in the Texans base defense, Darryl Sharpton, will get additional snaps.

Is that better or worse? As good as Andrew Luck will be coming out of Stanford, defenses are going to want to play the rebuilding Colts in 2012.

Bill Lubinger and Rich Exner of the Cleveland Plain Dealer put together a comprehensive free-agency scorecard.

They tracked what every team in the league has done from 2006-2011, and matched up winning percentages during that time.

That’s hardly scientific.

But all different kinds of signings count the same here.

• Signing defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to a monster contract and getting minimal production, as Washington did.
• Signing a big free agent who gives you all you hoped for, as the Texans did with cornerback Johnathan Joseph, or the Jaguars did with Paul Posluszny.
• Signing a cheap guy you think can emerge, as the Titans did with defensive end Jason Babin, and getting fantastic production.
• Signing a player like defensive end Aaron Kampman, who the Jaguars have gotten minimal production from as he has dealt with knee injuries.

Still, it’s interesting to consider the list in totality.

Here’s how the AFC South placed:

Hat tip to Scott Kendrick of the Florida Times-Union blog.

The sort of bold move the Jaguars were due to make thanks to plenty of salary-cap room and a new owner who’s talked about being all-in has arrived.

While the Jaguars signed receiver Laurent Robinson and backup quarterback Chad Henne, the addition of former Giants cornerback Aaron Ross is a bigger move.

Adam Schefter reports the Jaguars and Ross have agreed on a three-year deal worth up to $15.3 million.

Ross should bring the Jaguars a great deal in play and leadership -- he started in both the Giants’ Super Bowl wins over the Patriots.

Corner depth was the Jaguars’ second-biggest need on defense, behind only the sort of special pass-rushing end that many teams are searching for fruitlessly.

Jacksonville had previously re-signed Rashean Mathis, a one-time staple. He’s coming off a torn ACL, however, and his deal is an incentive-laden one-year package.

The Jaguars now have Ross, Derek Cox, Mathis and nickel corner Drew Coleman.

That’s a pretty solid stable to fill out the defensive backfield with safeties Dawan Landry and Dwight Lowery.

Despite managing to re-sign end Jeremy Mincey, end and receiver remain the primary needs.

The defense is an end away from being loaded, having now added a quality six pack of veterans in the past two seasons: linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, safeties Landry and Lowery and corners Ross and Coleman.

The Jaguars won’t be as active in free agency this year as they were last year, according to general manager Gene Smith, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case. The team could go a long way toward solving at least two of its three primary issues -- receiver, end, cornerback -- in free agency and it has the money.

Smith: "I think [owner Shahid Khan] understands the philosophy is to build your team through the draft. I think most teams have figured that out. Where you don’t want to be is in pro free agency year in and year out. That’s not our philosophy. It’s to supplement the college draft."

Sure, the philosophy is to build through the draft. But the core players you need on your roster left from the drafts before Smith got control aren’t really around. So now you get those guy in free agency, the way the Jaguars got Paul Posluszny, Clint Session and Dawan Landry last year.

I hope the Jaguars don’t avoid free agency on principle, to prove they are centered on building though the draft. Mario Williams or Robert Mathis or Vincent Jackson or Brandon Carr -- better yet a couple of those guys -- can help transform the Jaguars.

Smith can have the semantics.

Emphasize that free agency is supplemental all you like.

Just so long as you’re not going forward thinking a good draft can do the bulk of the work to get Blaine Gabbert the weapons he needs and to give the Jaguars the special pass-rusher they covet.

Khan’s pushed his chips to the middle for the table and has said he’s all in.

All in means at least a couple big moves in free agency.

Who played the most on defense in the AFC South in 2011?

Here’s a rundown, with percentage of defensive snaps played:

DE – Jeremy Mincey, Jaguars, 93.5

DE – J.J. Watt, Texans, 77.37

DT – Tyson Alualu, Jaguars, 83.74

DT – Jurrell Casey, Titans, 58.24

MLB – Paul Posluszny, Jaguars, 95.57

ILB – Brian Cushing, Texans, 93.32

OLB – Connor Barwin, Texans, 94.92

OLB – Pat Angerer, Colts, 93.11

FS – Michael Griffin, Titans, 99.91

SS – Dawan Landry, Jaguars, 99.61

CB – Cortland Finnegan, Titans, 100

CB – Johnathan Joseph, Texans, 89.13

Some notes:

Posluszny resents that he was labeled as injury prone as he left Buffalo as a free agent. He did get hurt, but the shoulder problem that needed surgery didn’t occur until the Jaguars’ finale.

Griffin missed one snap of the 1,123 defensive snaps the Titans played. Like Finnegan, the lone defender in the division not to miss a single play, he’s heading for unrestricted free agency.

Landry missed just four of 1,015 snaps for Jacksonville. Houston’s Glover Quin was close at 98.7 percent.

Mincey is a great effort player, who is heading for free agency. He could probably benefit from at least a little bit less playing time, with more energy to offer on pass-rush snaps.

Alualu played the fourth-highest percentage of snaps for a defensive tackle for anyone in the league. That’s a lot considering he was working with a bum right knee.

Monday we presented the All AFC-South offense. Today we move to defense and special teams.

I felt like there was a worthy candidate at every spot, and beyond wrestling with choosing between Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis for a defensive end spot, I didn’t have any gigantic struggles.

To accommodate the personnel of the 3-4 Texans along with the 4-3 Colts, Texans and Titans, we created a 12-man defense with four linemen and four linebackers. It seemed like a fair approach to me that stops short of bastardizing the team.

DEs: Houston rookie J.J. Watt was a giant presence from the start, serving as a key piece of the team’s revamped front. He was easily the division’s rookie of the year. Mathis gets the nod over Freeney but it could have gone either way. They both had fewer chances because teams threw less against them, but remained quite effective.

DTs: Antonio Smith of the Texans played end in base and tackle in nickel and his versatility was really highlighted in the 3-4 system. Casey was not at a similar level, but the Titans rookie was a stout and reliable run-stopper.

OLBs: The Jaguars were stacked at linebacker thanks to their free-agent shopping. On an upgraded defense, Daryl Smith really got to show himself a fine player. In Houston, Connor Barwin blossomed into an 11.5-sack guy who was constantly around the quarterback.

ILBs: Brian Cushing was a terror for the Texans, proving an excellent fit as an inside backer for Wade Phillips. At his best, he was something to behold. The same can be said for Jacksonville’s Paul Posluszny. He gave the Jaguars everything they were looking for in terms of production and leadership as a free-agent acquisition.

CBs: Houston’s Johnathan Joseph was the AFC South MVP in my eyes. The Texans hit a home run by adding Joseph, a settling force in the secondary who played sticky coverage all season. Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan didn’t produce on the same level, but his willingness and ability to shift inside and play a physical brand of nickel was a positive factor for the Titans' defense.

S: The Texans' move of Glover Quin from nickel corner to strong safety worked out beautifully and they are trend-setters in terms of having guys with corner skills playing in the middle of the field. He was steady and productive. Dwight Lowery showed good smarts and awareness for the Jaguars at a spot that was a huge hole the previous season. Signing him will be a priority.

K: Rob Bironas of the Titans missed just three field goals all season. While Jacksonville’s Josh Scobee missed only two, he tried fewer. And Bironas had a division-high 44 touchbacks

P: The Colts' Pat McAfee gets the edge over the Titans' Brett Kern in a very close race. Punting out of trouble was more important more often for Indianapolis, and McAfee’s net average was hurt by less than stellar coverage but shouldn’t offset his slightly bigger leg.

PR, KR: There was no outstanding work done in these spots for anyone in the division, so we pretty much go chalk. Tennessee punt returner Marc Mariani led in punt return average and Jacksonville kick returner Deji Karim led the division in kick return average.

ST: Kassim Osgood of the Jaguars continued to be a top guy in coverage work.

Injury concerns attached themselves to Paul Posluszny during his time in Buffalo, but they didn’t scare the Jaguars away from the middle linebacker in free agency.

He had an excellent season, playing in every game. But he tore the labrum in his left shoulder in the Jaguars' season finale and Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union reports he’s had surgery and is out until training camp.

It’s too bad he won’t be on the field during offseason work, but the defense is in good shape and he is entrenched as a centerpiece of it.

He'll watch new coach Mike Mularkey's and his staff implement their philosophies and revamp the offense from the sideline and it shouldn't hurt the Jaguars a bit.

Many NFL awards have been doled out, but I know the top players from the division still await our All-AFC South Team.

So it’s time to set about putting it together.

Here you’ll see my initial sketch of the team. The players I’ve added, in my eyes, are unquestionably worthy of spots on the team. Debate their presence if you are so compelled.

But I am most interested in your help filling in the blanks.

Last year showed I am willing to leave a spot blank if we don’t have a quality person to insert into the lineup.

The Texans’ change to a 3-4 defensive front provided a new wrinkle. My solution? We make the defense 12-players deep, with four linemen and four linebackers. That allows us to mix the personnel of three 4-3 fronts with the Texans’ 3-4 front and come out with a satisfactory team.

In my eyes, with apologies to the Colts' Pat Angerer, the linebacker slots are fairly easy to fill.

You can have significant influence over my thinking as the final team is formulated. As of now, I intend to post it on Friday.

So hop into comments here and make a case for your man. Or men. Thanks in advance for your part in it.

Houston Texans

John McClain continues his roster analysis with a breakdown of the tight ends.

McClain expects to see the Texans pursue an upgrade at wide receiver this offseason.

Indianapolis Colts

Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star: "It's going to be up to Peyton [Manning]'s little brother, Eli, whose team survived and overcame the San Francisco 49ers in overtime Sunday night, to stop quarterback Tom Brady, coach Bill Belichick and the rest of the reviled Patriots from celebrating at the House That Peyton Built."

Reggie Hayes of The News-Sentinel isn't excited about the idea of Jim Tressel as a candidate to be the Colts' next head coach. Hayes: "I get the feeling a lot of people dislike the idea of Jim Tressel as possible head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. And by dislike, I mean hate."

Colts.com looks at the history between new general manager Ryan Grigson and Houston GM Rick Smith.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars fullback Montell Owens will join Maurice Jones-Drew as Jaguars representatives in Sunday's Pro Bowl.

Jaguars linebacker Paul Posluszny reflects on his time with Joe Paterno.

Tennessee Titans

Mike Munchak recalls what Paterno meant to him.

Jim Wyatt profiles Ruston Webster, the Titans' new general manager.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 27
Preseason Power Ranking: 19

Biggest surprise: The Jaguars added six new veterans to their lineup of top-12 defensive players and once the group jelled it played very productively. Jacksonville finished sixth in overall defense, making giant strides from 2010 and maintaining the gain even as it lost a load of quality contributors to injury. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who finished the season as interim coach after Jack Del Rio was fired, did good work in his first season as the defense's playcaller. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny was the sort of centerpiece tackling machine the team envisioned when signing him away from Buffalo as a free agent.

Biggest disappointment: The Jaguars didn’t intend for rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to start 14 games before they felt he was ready to take over. But by cutting David Garrard (who later wound up having back surgery) just a week before the season started and bailing quickly on veteran Luke McCown, they went against their own plan and paid a huge price for it. Jacksonville’s pass offense was worse than anyone could have anticipated, averaging just 136.2 yards per game. The NFL’s best passing offense in New Orleans averaged 334.2. Gabbert may not have been much better operating behind better protection and with more dangerous weapons at receiver, but it sure would have been good for him to have had a chance to find out. Tight end Marcedes Lewis killed the team with his disappearing act after he got his payday.

Biggest need: While the defense will need a pass-rushing end and at least one cornerback, the attention has to be focused on the offense. Mike Thomas was the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2011 but slumped badly after he got a contract extension and was not equipped to work as the primary guy. He should be the third option in 2012, working primarily out of the slot. The Jaguars need big, fast and physical receivers who can threaten downfield and go get the ball for Gabbert or whoever winds up playing quarterback.

Team MVP: Unquestionably, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s just the fifth back since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to lead the league in rushing on a team with the NFL’s worst passing offense. That means with no threat to keep defenses honest, he ran consistently against stacked boxes and still produced in a giant way. There are always worries about wear and tear on him, yet he finished very strongly with no sign of tapering off. The Jaguars need to get other guys who are good with the ball in their hands so they can rely on him less, extend his window, and increase the chance he’s on a winning team.

Still searching for pressure: How long have the Jaguars needed a consistent pass-rush threat off the edge? It seems they are always looking. Jeremy Mincey is a great, high-energy player, but he’d benefit greatly from having a player opposing offenses have to game plan around. Yes, the franchise missed badly when it traded up to No. 8 for Derrick Harvey in the 2008 draft and counted on its second pick the same year, Quentin Groves, to help rush too. They are mistakes they still haven’t made up for. Knee injuries and rehabilitation have meant Aaron Kampman has played in only 11 games in two seasons and will be hard to bank on.

» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South

Perfect sense: Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Texans running back Arian Foster are two of the AFC’s running backs, although Baltimore’s Ray Rice is the starter. MJD is on the verge of his first rushing title a season after Foster led the league in ground yards. Johnathan Joseph qualifies as one of the best veteran additions in the league, and deserves his spot as a backup to Darrelle Revis and Champ Bailey.

Made it on rep: Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney is the division’s lone starter. He remains a premier pass-rusher who is very tough to block. The past two weeks when the Colts have won showed how feared he and Robert Mathis remain, as the Titans and Texans were overeager to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand. But on one of the league’s worst teams, Mathis might have had a better season. And while Antonio Smith and J.J. Watt of the Texans are 3-4 ends who don’t get the glory that comes with taking the quarterback down as often, a case could be made for either as a bigger contributor to his team’s success this season.

Got robbed: The Texans are currently the No. 2 defense in the NFL and have been in the top slot for much of the season. Four Houston defenders -- outside linebacker Connor Barwin, inside linebacker Brian Cushing, Smith and Watt -- are alternates, although we don’t yet know where in the pecking order. While outside linebacker is loaded and it’s tough for 3-4 ends to get in, Ray Lewis has missed a lot of action with a toe injury. I suspect both Cushing and Jacksonville's middle linebacker, Paul Posluszny, have been more influential for their teams this season. Texans center Chris Myers should represent one of the league's best offensive lines. The Titans got no one on the initial roster. Kicker Rob Bironas has been remarkable and qualifies as their best candidate. But the AFC’s kicker, Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski, has certainly had a big year.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. The Houston Texans' confidence: They will say otherwise, but coming off of two bad losses the Texans have to be wondering about themselves. They got pushed around by Carolina, and their vaunted defense fell apart in the final minutes, allowing the Colts to drive to a game-winning touchdown. I was among those questioning this team’s mental makeup coming into the season. I thought they’d answered that question resoundingly as they ran away with the division. Is it creeping back in now?

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dealings with tight ends: Marcedes Lewis will be a headliner on the AFC South All Disappointment Team, and if not for Chris Johnson, he’d be the captain. Saturday in Nashville, he pulled up on one ball across the middle for fear of a hit from notorious thumper Michael Griffin, the Titans safety (#sarcasm). On the other end, the defense let Tennessee’s Jared Cook run wild. The coverage call on Cook’s 55-yard touchdown pass that sent the safeties wide and left middle linebacker Paul Posluszny covering Cook deep down the middle was disastrous.

3. The Houston Texans’ third-down offense: On last week’s list, it was third-down defense. The Colts allowed them just one conversion in 10 chances, and that one came on a pass that bounced off Antoine Bethea twice. This team can win with games centered on defense and the run game. But if the offense can’t convert third downs and stay on the field for some extended drives, the strain on those two areas becomes too much and the margin of error shrivels.

RISING

1. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver: He talked leading up to the Colts' home finale about wanting to go out with a bang in case it turned out to be his last game as a Colt at Lucas Oil Stadium. I saw one early route where I thought his effort was questionable. But he sure cranked it up as Dan Orlovsky threw his direction 14 times. He pulled in eight receptions for 106 yards and cradled the game-winning touchdown after a 1-yard catch that provided the winning margin for Indianapolis in its second consecutive win. He’s heading toward free agency and it’s clear he can still produce. How much longer is the question.

2. The Tennessee Titans’ discipline: Mike Munchak has preached discipline from his first day as the Titans coach. Saturday, when he didn’t get a postgame question about a penalty-free performance, he didn’t leave the podium before jokingly pointing it out. It was the first time the franchise didn’t draw a flag in a game since 1972. Meanwhile the Titans benefited from six calls against the Jaguars that gave Tennessee 28 yards and three first downs.

3. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans tight end: Following the best game for a tight end in franchise history -- 169 yards -- he’s in range of the franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a season. He’s a receiver-like threat who I believe has been under-used by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck since Kenny Britt went down early in the season. Cook killed the Titans with a lost fumble in the loss at Indianapolis. The effort against the Jaguars was an excellent rebound. The Titans need to find ways to get him the ball Sunday at Reliant Stadium.