AFC South: Peyton Manning's future

Gene Wojciechowski does a nice job in this piece of recounting Joe Montana’s separation from the 49ers and comparing it to what’s unfolding for Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts.
“NFL history repeats itself. The circumstances aren't exactly the same, but they're similar enough. Bottom line: Divorce proceedings between a generational player and the franchise he helped make famous are never easy. ‘It was horribly difficult,’ (Niners team president Carmen) Policy said the other day by phone, describing Montana's departure from the 49ers in 1993. ‘At that time he had won four Super Bowls. He was the quintessential comeback kid. He was so revered in the community, so loved in the locker room.
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Peyton Manning
AP Photo/Frederick BreedonIt's difficult to miss all the signs that point to the Colts separating from QB Peyton Manning.
"In a strong, strong way there are similarities in terms of what Peyton Manning has done for that franchise in Indianapolis. You almost can't think of the franchise without thinking of Peyton Manning. … To separate is really, really difficult and heart wrenching."

But I have to disagree with Wojciechowski’s conclusion. He believes the Colts should do whatever necessary to hold on to Manning.
“Maybe you push back the March 8 due date on Manning's $28 million option bonus. Maybe you say, ‘I want you to begin and end your career wearing the horseshoe, but you've got to work with me on this $28 mil. Can we restructure it?’

“Maybe you tell him, ‘Come back, play another year, help mentor (Andrew) Luck or RG3 and then we'll put together an organizational golden parachute for you. And if you play like pre-neck surgery Peyton, then we'll re-up you for another year or you go somewhere as a free agent.’

“Professional. Reasonable. Logical.”

But not feasible.

The NFLPA tells me the first renegotiated of a contract can take place at any time. Then the second cannot happen within a year if it causes a salary increase over the first redo.

So Manning's contract isn’t the big issue, actually.

The issue is every move the Colts have made since the end of the season has been intended to set up a fresh start and a new era. And as much as the Colts love Manning and appreciate his work for them, finding a way to keep him on a team that’s going to undergo a major rebuild under a new GM with a new coach and staff and with the No. 1 pick coming to town is impractical.

It’s too late to take the path Woj wants, and while taking it is in some way the noble thing to do to preserve what’s been a beautiful thing, it’s not the practical thing to do for the long-term health of the franchise.

It’s in no way easy. It’s incredibly emotional for all parties involved.

The odds that all these factors would arrive at the same time were incredibly low: Manning’s continued uncertain health; the secondary bonus coming due that triggers the remainder of his contract; the Colts’ terrible season without him that resulted in the No. 1 pick; the availability of Luck with that pick; Irsay’s frustration with Bill Polian and Chris Polian coming off that failed season that led to their dismissals; the hiring of Ryan Grigson as the new GM; the removal of Jim Caldwell; the hiring of Chuck Pagano as the new coach; looming decisions on three old-guard guys heading to free agency -- center Jeff Saturday, receiver Reggie Wayne and defensive end Robert Mathis.

If Irsay had decided to attempt to load up for a three-season push for another Super Bowl with Manning, I wouldn’t have had a problem with it. But he either had to go all-in in such fashion, or bail and start anew.

He’s already well down the path to the second strategy. And the Colts brass needs to line up with the approach Policy took with Montana.

There is a Jim Irsay-Manning meeting looming. There is a lot of talk about a decision still to be made. It's hard for me to imagine Irsay hasn't already made it and we aren't just waiting for it to play out.
INDIANAPOLIS -- Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs won Super Bowls with three quarterbacks. He would not have objected, however, to a long-term relationship with a player the caliber of Peyton Manning.

Gibbs said he thinks if Manning lands on another team, that team should give him a large degree of control in the offense.
“If he’s physically healthy, I predict there will be 25 teams after him. Now the question is, what’s Indy going to do? They’re sitting there with the first pick in the draft and you know where that’s going to go and so what do you do? I think there are a lot of options there. It’ll be interesting to see what Indy does.

“This guy was special, he was special as a player. And I think really what was really special when you go against him was what he did at the line of scrimmage, mentally. Not only physically could he throw it and do all the things he did, but this guy actually took that audible package at the line of scrimmage and drove you crazy.

“If another team gets him, I would say the smart thing to do is to let him direct and help put in the offense… They say he spent hours and hours coaching. He had to in order to do what he did. I mean he goes to the line of scrimmage and quick counts you and that means you’ve got to get into what you’re going to do. And the next time he stops, backs down, says if it’s one deep I’m throwing it, if it’s two deep, I’m handing it off. And when he threw it, all they had to do was put their hand out. He was special. That part of him, you don’t want to lose that as a coaching staff.”
INDIANAPOLIS -- It would be naïve to think the Peyton Manning story wouldn’t come with layers of posturing.

I mistakenly thought that all parties would cool it this week, to allow the Super Bowl to take center stage, for Manning to stay out of the way of his brother, Eli, who quarterbacks the Giants.

But Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter managed a combo report Thursday: Manning’s been cleared physically to return to play.

That doesn’t come out, I don’t believe, unless the Manning camp wants it out. And the Manning camp should have waited until Monday.

Colts owner Jim Irsay pledged not to talk about the Manning situation this week and said he'd sit down with Manning to discuss what will unfold next week.

Then came the story that said Manning’s been physically cleared to play, but still has to reach a performance standard in terms of arm strength.

Irsay was compelled to counter via Twitter: “Peyton has not passed our physical nor has he been cleared to play for The Indianapolis Colts. Team statement coming on Friday.”

Andrew Luck arrived in town yesterday too, promoting Gatorade and doing interviews with all the local TV stations.

Do we believe it's a coincidence that the Manning news came out synched up with that? I certainly don’t think so.

You haven’t exactly minimized the story, fellas.
INDIANAPOLIS — Outside of the Super Bowl, the hot topic in town is what the Indianapolis Colts will do with quarterback Peyton Manning. Former defensive back Artrell Hawkins, whose nine-year NFL career included stops with the Bengals and Patriots, has a Cincinnati radio show that is being broadcast from the Super Bowl this week. He gave his take on the Manning situation:
"I don't think it's unfair. It's the nature of the business. You can't pass up a guy like Andrew Luck. If you have an injury, Jim Irsay has to do what's best for the organization now. I hesitate to say Peyton is going to be done. Yeah, Peyton might be done here. You can't give him $28 million. It's bad timing for him because of the bonus he gets and the best quarterback in the past 30 years is available in Andrew Luck. At the end of the day, this is what it's all about. There's only two kind of players in this league. There are players who are retired and done and there are the players who are going to be. I don't think Peyton ever gets back to where he was as a player. You can't say with a 100 percent certainty that he won't be back. But, at the same time, it's nerve damage. It's his arm. I don't see him playing a very long time. I wouldn't bet against him playing, but he's probably never going to be the same again."
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INDIANAPOLIS -- For every team that would chase Peyton Manning if he’s available, the potential to court him has taken a seriously good turn.

Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter report Manning’s been cleared by doctors to play, and that the question now is about when he can reach a level of performance he’s satisfied with. Much of that surrounds regaining and rebuilding arm strength.

I don’t think it has a bearing on the Colts' decision, which is going to be to release him, avoid long-range cap problems and draft Andrew Luck to be the centerpiece of their next era.

But Manning should be able to show his next team that he can play in 2012, and that it won’t need some major degree of patience or a big-time contingency plan as he’s brought in.

It sounds like a new team will be able to feel good enough about his health to move sooner rather than later.
INDIANAPOLIS -- Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf will forever be intertwined.

Leaf toured Radio Row on Thursday, promoting his autobiography, “596 Switch.”

He said he and Manning became friends when Peyton was drafted first and Leaf second in 1998 (by Indianapolis and San Diego, respectively).

“Peyton was always going to succeed because he knew exactly what he wanted and was kind of groomed to do things in the right way,” Leaf said. “I do believe even if Peyton could have lost through the first three years rather than just the one, and thrown 28 interceptions a year for three years, it still wouldn’t have mattered. He still would have had the career he’s having. He could overcome dealing with failure in a positive way.

“To see this city right now kind of crumbling after what he’s done to build it, it’s sad. Because the only way I want to watch No. 18 play is in a blue uniform with a horseshoe on the helmet, that’s for sure. And if he can’t do it, he can do it for another team.

“I do believe he can find a way to do it, and I do believe if they have the opportunity to have Peyton play next year, Andrew Luck can sit for a year behind, possibly, the greatest quarterback ever. It’s going to benefit not only him but the entire organization.”
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INDIANAPOLIS -- Hall of Fame offensive tackle Anthony Munoz said you can't make "an intellectual recommendation" on what the Colts should do with quarterback Peyton Manning because no one outside the organization knows the injury status of the four-time Most Valuable Player. Thanks to NFC West blogger Mike Sando for delivering the video.
INDIANAPOLIS — Outside of the Super Bowl, the hot topic in town is what the Indianapolis Colts will do with quarterback Peyton Manning. Former NFL cornerback Deion Sanders gives his take of the situation from a player's perspective:
"I'm tired of you guys misconstruing it and start badgering a guy for holding out and trying to make a dollar when he finally gets leverage. But you never say nothing about these teams when they're allowing these guys to go year after year with contracts. No one says anything. The money isn't guaranteed. Now, it just so happens one of our most heralded players and he's getting caught up in business. They say it's about his health and his family situation. No, you're worried about $28 million that he's got coming.

"Any team would be a good fit for Peyton. He can make Slippery Rock go to the BCS. That's who he is."
INDIANAPOLIS -- Retired St. Louis Rams great Marshall Faulk played with Peyton Manning and for Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay.

Faulk, speaking at Super Bowl media day, said he thought the back-and-forth between Manning and Irsay stemmed from the owner's unwillingness to expose the quarterback to a debilitating injury.

"It's not financial with Jim," Faulk said. "No, he has not told me this, these are not his words, but I am listening to his message. That is my job, listen to what is being said, not what is not being said, and he keeps harping on Peyton's health. That means Peyton's quality of life beyond football, being able to be the father and the husband that he can be by being healthy."

Manning's contract calls for him to receive a $28 million bonus March 8. The scheduled payment has accelerated discussions about Manning's future. As for the money itself?

"I don't think it's financial," Faulk said. "I mean, it made sense last year to not give him that kind of money. I mean, let's be honest. I love Peyton, but that's a lot of money to not play -- even if you knew he wasn't going to play half the season. That is what they were talking about: By Week 8, he'll be back. If that is the case, then I can give you eight games, too."

Faulk suggested delaying the $28 million payment could buy time if Manning decided he wanted to remain with the Colts. But he reiterated his contention that Irsay is most concerned about Manning's health, adding that the ability to draft Stanford's Andrew Luck first overall was also a secondary issue.

"I believe this would be the case if they were drafting 31st," Faulk said. "It just so happens they have an opportunity to do what the 49ers did when Joe Montana left, which was to put Steve Young in there. It's a great situation to be in. At the same time, it's an awful situation to be in."
INDIANAPOLIS -- Peyton Manning's interview with ESPN's Trey Wingo swerved into NFC West territory about five minutes into the clip below.

The San Francisco 49ers and their fans will appreciate what Manning said when Wingo asked how tough it is for Manning to watch the Super Bowl come to his town.

"I've always said it's probably harder for the playoff teams not to be here," Manning said. "When you get really close, like San Francisco, like Baltimore. We've known we weren't coming to the Super Bowl for quite some time."

Since November, actually.

A quick look at the five most painful NFC West playoff exits, pre-Super Bowl, since divisional realignment in 2002:
  • 2011 49ers: Their 20-17 defeat to the Giants was crushing for the way it happened, with a turnover during a punt return in overtime -- and at home, which always hurts more. Missed opportunities abounded.
  • 2003 Rams: Losing in the second overtime is worse than losing in the first one. Jake Delhomme's 69-yard touchdown pass to Steve Smith in St. Louis stunned the 12-4 Rams in the divisional round. This one would have ranked first if a Super Bowl trip had been on the line.
  • 2003 Seahawks: Seattle was looking for its first playoff victory since the 1980s. Shaun Alexander's fourth-quarter scoring run had forced overtime at Lambeau Field. Microphones memorably picked up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck saying the Seahawks would take the ball -- and score -- after winning the overtime coin toss. Al Harris' interception return for a touchdown spoiled those plans.
  • 2006 Seahawks: A 27-24 overtime defeat at Chicago in the divisional round brought a sudden end to the Seahawks' NFC title defense. Alexander rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns, but it wasn't enough.
  • 2004 Seahawks: First-round defeats in back-to-back seasons extended the Seahawks' drought without a playoff victory. The Seahawks lost this one at home, 27-20, after the Rams scored the final 10 points.

Arizona's defeat at New Orleans following the 2009 season just missed the cut. The game lacked the drama generally required to inflict deep emotional wounds. It was significant, however, because Kurt Warner suffered a concussion and opted for retirement.

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INDIANAPOLIS — Outside of Super Bowl, the hot topic in town is what the Indianapolis Colts will do with quarterback Peyton Manning. Former Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick expects the Colts to release the four-time NFL Most Valuable Player:
"I think we’re seeing the tell-tale signs of [Manning getting released]. The outside observers are saying, ‘Give him the money and draft Andrew Luck.’ That’s easy to do when it’s not your $28 million. Even the club said it’s not about the money. Are you kidding me? It’s always about the money. I question the intelligence of an organization that tries to parlay this in both instances. It’s tough decisions, but we’re headed clearly in that direction.”
Reports suggesting Peyton Manning won’t sufficiently recover from neck surgery to resume his NFL career are not accurate, to hear Manning tell it.

"I really feel good," he told ESPN's Trey Wingo at the Super Bowl. "I continue to make progress every day. Everything that the doctors have told me has been on point, which is encouraging to me. I just had a great day today with rehab, just got back from the facility, and that's what we continue to do. Just keep trying to get better. So far I have. That's the plan from here on out."

Of course, Manning can feel good and still not be healed enough to return to NFL play. He plans on getting better and the wish from everyone is that he does, but we know nothing definitive and he shared nothing definitive about the status of nerve regeneration following serious neck surgery before last season.

He still may not know.

He declined to predict what's going to happen with a March 8 deadline for a $28 million bonus. If the Indianapolis Colts don't pay it, he'll become a free agent.

Manning said he understands the ongoing conversation but simply won't contribute to it this week. He'll talk to owner Jim Irsay after the Super Bowl and doesn't expect the verdict to come down to the last second.

It certainly shouldn't. It's not that complicated.

"Either way, it's going to be good," he said. "I'm at peace, and it'll be a positive thing, I can assure you."

Video: Peyton Manning convo Part 1

January, 31, 2012
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Peyton Manning talks to Trey Wingo about Indianapolis hosting the Super Bowl, Giants-Patriots, his rehab and relationship with Jim Irsay and future in Indy.
It’s a strange time in Indianapolis.

The city’s on center stage as Super Bowl host, and the early reviews are excellent. I expect it to be as good a week in a cold-weather setting as we’ve seen because of the easy logistics of a compact downtown.

A Super Bowl week gives a city a chance to celebrate itself, and Indianapolis is doing so.

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But all of it comes with a big, hovering and unavoidable question: What will happen with the Colts and Peyton Manning?

It’s hard to find anyone now who expects the Colts -- with a new GM, a new coach and the No. 1 pick in the draft -- to pay Manning a $28 million bonus on March 8. When they don’t, he’ll be a free agent with questions about nerve regeneration and arm strength still lingering from the next surgery he had before last season started.

Colleague Elizabeth Merrill spent time in Indianapolis to get a sense of how it's feeling with its long-time superstar quarterback’s fate so uncertain.
When Indianapolis won the bid to host the Super Bowl four years ago, it never could have imagined this: That the big event would be played in the backdrop of a miserable 2-14 Colts season, with its seemingly unbreakable quarterback out with a neck injury and now presumably on his way out of town.

Is Peyton Manning done in Indianapolis? That -- and not the merits of the two Super Bowl teams -- was the big news last week. The Colts aren't saying anything except for an occasional statement that assures the masses all is well on West 56th Street. But change is thick in the air, from the firing of coach Jim Caldwell and vice chairman Bill Polian to the draft day that is looming with young phenom Andrew Luck waiting with the No. 1 pick.

"I think the mourning process has begun," said longtime Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz, whose lengthy and rare interview with Manning last week revealed a quarterback who is obviously uncomfortable with all the change.

"I think as the Super Bowl arrives, and as geeked as people are, there's this cloud where people are starting to come to grips with the very real, not just possibility, but the likelihood that Peyton Manning is not going to be on that team anymore, that he's played his final down as a Colt."

Shannon Sharpe on Peyton Manning

January, 30, 2012
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INDIANAPOLIS -- Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharpe gave his take on the Peyton Manning situation:
Jim Irsay is doing the right thing. It looks like to me, he’s removed anyone that might have a dissenting opinion to him. No [Bill] Polian, change in head coach and change in training staff. First-year head coach and first-year general manager tells me they’re bringing in a new quarterback.

We know the Super Bowl is in Indy because of Peyton Manning. Lucas Oil Stadium is because of Peyton Manning. What Jim Irsay is saying, "I paid Peyton Manning $150 million. I think I did pretty good. I gave him $26 million when I knew he wasn’t going to be healthy." Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith were all told their services weren’t required and they weren’t hurt. We don’t even have this debate if Peyton plays. We’re not even discussing this. Andrew Luck is out of the question. Because he was hurt, now they have to make a decision.

Jim Irsay has to think 10 years from now. Peyton Manning isn’t going to be playing. Do I keep Peyton Manning and pay him $28 million plus the other $20 million that I got to pay Andrew Luck over the life of his contract? No, you can’t do that. It’s hard and it’s a cold callous business. There’s no loyalty on both sides. But I think Mr. Irsay is doing the right thing.
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