AFC South: Pierre Garcon
Thoughts on the Colts' draft from two people involved in evaluating personnel for NFL teams:
Guy No. 1:
“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”
“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”
“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”
“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”
Guy No. 2:
“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “
“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.
“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”
“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”
“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”
Guy No. 1:
“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”
“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”
“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”
“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”
Guy No. 2:
“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “
“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.
“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”
“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”
“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”
» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Houston Texans
Key additions: None.
Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).
Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.
Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.
What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.
But the Texans are not without need.
While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.
So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.
On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.
What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.
They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.
Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).
Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.
They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.
What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.
The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.
The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.
Tennessee Titans
Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.
Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.
Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.
Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.
What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.
Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?
Houston Texans
Key additions: None.
Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).
Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.
Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.
What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.
But the Texans are not without need.
While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.
So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.
On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.
What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.
They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.
Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).
Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.
They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.
What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.
The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.
The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.
Tennessee Titans
Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.
Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.
Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.
Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.
What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.
Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?
Minus Manning, Colts will draw less nickel
March, 27, 2012
Mar 27
6:31
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Nickel defenses are played more than ever in the NFL.
But the AFC South may be moving the other direction in games against each other.
The Texans are comfortable lining up with three wide receivers or splitting tight end Owen Daniels out into spread formations. The Jaguars and Titans figured to remain running back-centric. If the Titans get a bounce-back from Chris Johnson, they will likely run more. Of course those two teams can spread things out with the intent to run, of course.
But two games when AFC South teams loaded up with nickel packages are likely to change.
The departure of Peyton Manning from the Colts means one team that dictated constant nickel defenses is being altered. New coach Chuck Pagano has talked about running and stopping the run and GM Ryan Grigson said Monday he expects the Colts to be a fullback team.
A linebacker is typically going to stay on the field against a two-back set. The lack of a precision passing offense and weapons like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon will make it tougher for the Colts to dictate a team's defensive personnel, or to take advantage of it.
"The third linebacker or the nickel corner?” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said at the owners meetings, repeating a question about what’s more important. “You look at your schedule and say, 'OK, what are we going to play this year? Are we going to be in nickel all year, or are we going to be trying to stop the run?' I think that's what things will come down to.
“One year you might be out there in nickel defense 60 or 70 percent of the time. The next year it could be 50. It all starts with your division. When Peyton was at Indy, if we didn't have three good corners we were in trouble every time we played them. So I think you've kind of got to build your roster to compete in your division, No. 1, and make that decision."
This means the Jaguars will have two more games where they can play more with their great linebacking trio of Paul Posluszny, Daryl Smith and Clint Session on the field together.
This means the Titans' new nickelback -- whether he's an outsider or Ryan Mouton, Chris Hawkins or Tommie Campbell -- isn't going to be as important against Indy as recent ones have been.
This means DeMeco Ryans' replacement in the Texans base defense, Darryl Sharpton, will get additional snaps.
Is that better or worse? As good as Andrew Luck will be coming out of Stanford, defenses are going to want to play the rebuilding Colts in 2012.
But the AFC South may be moving the other direction in games against each other.
The Texans are comfortable lining up with three wide receivers or splitting tight end Owen Daniels out into spread formations. The Jaguars and Titans figured to remain running back-centric. If the Titans get a bounce-back from Chris Johnson, they will likely run more. Of course those two teams can spread things out with the intent to run, of course.
[+] Enlarge
Thomas B. Shea/Getty ImagesTexans coach Gary Kubiak said Tuesday at the NFL owners meetings that teams should prepare for their division when deciding on a nickel defense.
Thomas B. Shea/Getty ImagesTexans coach Gary Kubiak said Tuesday at the NFL owners meetings that teams should prepare for their division when deciding on a nickel defense.The departure of Peyton Manning from the Colts means one team that dictated constant nickel defenses is being altered. New coach Chuck Pagano has talked about running and stopping the run and GM Ryan Grigson said Monday he expects the Colts to be a fullback team.
A linebacker is typically going to stay on the field against a two-back set. The lack of a precision passing offense and weapons like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon will make it tougher for the Colts to dictate a team's defensive personnel, or to take advantage of it.
"The third linebacker or the nickel corner?” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said at the owners meetings, repeating a question about what’s more important. “You look at your schedule and say, 'OK, what are we going to play this year? Are we going to be in nickel all year, or are we going to be trying to stop the run?' I think that's what things will come down to.
“One year you might be out there in nickel defense 60 or 70 percent of the time. The next year it could be 50. It all starts with your division. When Peyton was at Indy, if we didn't have three good corners we were in trouble every time we played them. So I think you've kind of got to build your roster to compete in your division, No. 1, and make that decision."
This means the Jaguars will have two more games where they can play more with their great linebacking trio of Paul Posluszny, Daryl Smith and Clint Session on the field together.
This means the Titans' new nickelback -- whether he's an outsider or Ryan Mouton, Chris Hawkins or Tommie Campbell -- isn't going to be as important against Indy as recent ones have been.
This means DeMeco Ryans' replacement in the Texans base defense, Darryl Sharpton, will get additional snaps.
Is that better or worse? As good as Andrew Luck will be coming out of Stanford, defenses are going to want to play the rebuilding Colts in 2012.
A free-agency roundup for the AFC South so far. We're not including a team's own free agents that it has re-signed:
Houston
Additions: None
Subtractions: OLB Mario Williams (Buffalo); RT Eric Winston (cut, Kansas City); CB Jason Allen (Cincinnati); G Mike Brisiel (Oakland); QB Matt Leinart (cut); Lawrence Vickers (Dallas).
Indianapolis
Additions: DL Cory Redding (Baltimore); RT Winston Justice (trade, Philadelphia); S Tom Zbikowski (Baltimore); C Mike McGlynn (Cincinnati).
Subtractions: WR Pierre Garcon (Washington); WR Anthony Gonzalez (New England); QB Dan Orlovsky (Tampa Bay); QB Peyton Manning (cut); LB Gary Brackett (cut); S Melvin Bullitt (cut), TE Dallas Clark (cut).
Jacksonville
Additions: WR Laurent Robinson (Dallas); QB Chad Henne (Miami).
Subtractions: ST-WR Kassim Osgood (cut).
Tennessee
Additions: G Steve Hutchinson (cut, Minnesota).
Subtractions: CB Cortland Finnegan (St. Louis); DL Jason Jones (Seattle).
Houston
Additions: None
Subtractions: OLB Mario Williams (Buffalo); RT Eric Winston (cut, Kansas City); CB Jason Allen (Cincinnati); G Mike Brisiel (Oakland); QB Matt Leinart (cut); Lawrence Vickers (Dallas).
Indianapolis
Additions: DL Cory Redding (Baltimore); RT Winston Justice (trade, Philadelphia); S Tom Zbikowski (Baltimore); C Mike McGlynn (Cincinnati).
Subtractions: WR Pierre Garcon (Washington); WR Anthony Gonzalez (New England); QB Dan Orlovsky (Tampa Bay); QB Peyton Manning (cut); LB Gary Brackett (cut); S Melvin Bullitt (cut), TE Dallas Clark (cut).
Jacksonville
Additions: WR Laurent Robinson (Dallas); QB Chad Henne (Miami).
Subtractions: ST-WR Kassim Osgood (cut).
Tennessee
Additions: G Steve Hutchinson (cut, Minnesota).
Subtractions: CB Cortland Finnegan (St. Louis); DL Jason Jones (Seattle).
Mailbag: The best answers I can offer
March, 17, 2012
Mar 17
10:03
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Kevin in Houston writes: Why is it taking so long to sign Chris Meyers, Mike Brisiel, Joel Dreessen and Neil Rackers? It's fairly clear the Texans were not going to be able to sign/afford Mario Williams. Did this not clear up enough room to get some of these key players back? It just feels like the Texans just don't care.
Paul Kuharsky: Teams don’t operate on fans’ timetables.
The Texans have re-signed Arian Foster and Chris Myers now. Brisiel, Dreessen and Rackers are nice pieces, but hardly urgent. So you let them see the market. If they hit the lottery, you say congrats. If they don’t, you wind up in a favorable position to get them back.
Why make the jump to “they don’t care?” Why wouldn’t they care?
Chris in Washington, D.C., writes: Your Tennessee bias has been on astounding display over the past week. Could you make it any clearer that you hope Peyton goes there? Last I checked, this is an AFC South blog, not a Titans blog. You should write accordingly. As a journalist, I don't have a whole lot of respect for your coverage right now. Or maybe ESPN "bloggers" should be held to a lesser standard?
Paul Kuharsky: Peyton Manning is the biggest story in sports right now. He’s not considering playing for Jacksonville or Houston. The Colts cut him, so any post about his potential landing spot is of interest to Indianapolis. I’d be writing a great deal about him even if one of his primary suitors was not in the division. But it is.
I’ve written about the goings on with other teams.
None, right now, have nearly as much going on as the Titans do.
That’s how it works -- the biggest story and most active team gets the most attention. When the Texans were in the playoffs, it was them. When the Colts were deciding on Manning, it was them. As the Titans court Manning, it’s them.
Bo from Spearfish writes: With Jax signing a decent WR (Robinson) and Mincey to stay at DE, what’s their first-round priority? CB? Or do they protect Gabbert with an OL pick. I personally would still prefer another set of hands opposite Robinson.
Paul Kuharsky: You can’t force a priority on a first-round pick, but they still need a big time pass-rusher and a corner. But wide receiver trumps all in my eyes, especially if Laurent Robinson is all they do in free agency.
Scott in Missoula, Mont., writes: Winston Justice? Really? Why in the world would the Colts take an overpaid, backup OT and give up their position in the sixth round, disregarding for a moment the fact they have Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana, instead of trying to court Evan Mathis, Ben Grubbs and/or Chris Myers, who are proven upper-echelon offensive linemen? Seems like the only positive move Ryan Grigson has had thus far is keeping Reggie Wayne to be Andrew Luck's #1 WR. Your thoughts?
Paul Kuharsky: I think we give Winston a chance, just like we give Grigson and all the newcomers a chance. Ijalana’s hardly a sure thing himself. Grubbs and Myers were pretty costly and the Colts don’t have much money. And swapping sixth-rounders with Philly for Justice was hardly any cost at all.
Barry in Indy writes: I see where some teams offered a 1st or 2nd round tender offer to their FAs. Do you know if the Colts did this with Pierre Garcon? At this point, the Colts need all the draft picks they can get. Thanks in advance!
Paul Kuharsky: Tender offers are for restricted free agents. Teams are able to retain them with a tender offer, which gives them the right to match any offer sheet they might sign or get the draft pick attached to the tender as payback for not matching.
Teams have no power to attach anything to unrestricted free agents. The only thing they stand to get back later is a compensatory draft pick, third round or later, if the sum of their free-agent losses outweighs the sum of their gains. And those come in the draft the following year.
Michael from Cypress, Texas writes: No disrespect to Manning, but I think he'd be a great QB coach at Houston. Can you imagine TJ Yates and Matt Schaub getting tips from Peyton?
Paul Kuharsky: Actually I can’t imagine it at all. Why would he want to do that? He’s going to make a ton of money playing and has a chance to try to win another Super Bowl.
Paul Kuharsky: Teams don’t operate on fans’ timetables.
The Texans have re-signed Arian Foster and Chris Myers now. Brisiel, Dreessen and Rackers are nice pieces, but hardly urgent. So you let them see the market. If they hit the lottery, you say congrats. If they don’t, you wind up in a favorable position to get them back.
Why make the jump to “they don’t care?” Why wouldn’t they care?
Chris in Washington, D.C., writes: Your Tennessee bias has been on astounding display over the past week. Could you make it any clearer that you hope Peyton goes there? Last I checked, this is an AFC South blog, not a Titans blog. You should write accordingly. As a journalist, I don't have a whole lot of respect for your coverage right now. Or maybe ESPN "bloggers" should be held to a lesser standard?
Paul Kuharsky: Peyton Manning is the biggest story in sports right now. He’s not considering playing for Jacksonville or Houston. The Colts cut him, so any post about his potential landing spot is of interest to Indianapolis. I’d be writing a great deal about him even if one of his primary suitors was not in the division. But it is.
I’ve written about the goings on with other teams.
None, right now, have nearly as much going on as the Titans do.
That’s how it works -- the biggest story and most active team gets the most attention. When the Texans were in the playoffs, it was them. When the Colts were deciding on Manning, it was them. As the Titans court Manning, it’s them.
Bo from Spearfish writes: With Jax signing a decent WR (Robinson) and Mincey to stay at DE, what’s their first-round priority? CB? Or do they protect Gabbert with an OL pick. I personally would still prefer another set of hands opposite Robinson.
Paul Kuharsky: You can’t force a priority on a first-round pick, but they still need a big time pass-rusher and a corner. But wide receiver trumps all in my eyes, especially if Laurent Robinson is all they do in free agency.
Scott in Missoula, Mont., writes: Winston Justice? Really? Why in the world would the Colts take an overpaid, backup OT and give up their position in the sixth round, disregarding for a moment the fact they have Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana, instead of trying to court Evan Mathis, Ben Grubbs and/or Chris Myers, who are proven upper-echelon offensive linemen? Seems like the only positive move Ryan Grigson has had thus far is keeping Reggie Wayne to be Andrew Luck's #1 WR. Your thoughts?
Paul Kuharsky: I think we give Winston a chance, just like we give Grigson and all the newcomers a chance. Ijalana’s hardly a sure thing himself. Grubbs and Myers were pretty costly and the Colts don’t have much money. And swapping sixth-rounders with Philly for Justice was hardly any cost at all.
Barry in Indy writes: I see where some teams offered a 1st or 2nd round tender offer to their FAs. Do you know if the Colts did this with Pierre Garcon? At this point, the Colts need all the draft picks they can get. Thanks in advance!
Paul Kuharsky: Tender offers are for restricted free agents. Teams are able to retain them with a tender offer, which gives them the right to match any offer sheet they might sign or get the draft pick attached to the tender as payback for not matching.
Teams have no power to attach anything to unrestricted free agents. The only thing they stand to get back later is a compensatory draft pick, third round or later, if the sum of their free-agent losses outweighs the sum of their gains. And those come in the draft the following year.
Michael from Cypress, Texas writes: No disrespect to Manning, but I think he'd be a great QB coach at Houston. Can you imagine TJ Yates and Matt Schaub getting tips from Peyton?
Paul Kuharsky: Actually I can’t imagine it at all. Why would he want to do that? He’s going to make a ton of money playing and has a chance to try to win another Super Bowl.
Insider analysis: Early receiver movement
March, 15, 2012
Mar 15
2:52
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
KC Joyner discusses the receiver market so far in this Insider piece 
.
GarconI’ve seized a couple snippets to pass along:
Pierre Garcon, outgoing from Colts to Redskins: The 2009 season is the only campaign in which Garcon posted quality metrics (9.3 YPA), and that was with a healthy Peyton Manning. Robert Griffin III may be a very good pro quarterback, but unless he can play at Manning's elite level (a very big task), the Redskins may be disappointed in this investment.
Reggie Wayne, stayed with Colts: His early-season totals weren't dominant, but from Weeks 12-17 Wayne gained 472 yards on 45 targets (if penalty plays are included). That equates to a 10.3 overall YPA that was highlighted by a 13.0 vertical YPA (VYPA) on 25 vertical targets.
Laurent Robinson, incoming from Dallas to Jaguars: “…[T]here could be some serious upside to this deal for Jacksonville. Robinson had a rare combination of a fantastic short pass YPA (7.8 on 44 targets) and a superb VYPA (14.8 on 34 targets) last season. In addition, he caught five of six bomb passes for 282 yards, so he has the skills to stretch the field. (Note: Bomb passes are aerials thrown 30 or more yards downfield.) Whether he'll have a quarterback in Jacksonville who can get him the ball is another question.”
.
Pierre Garcon, outgoing from Colts to Redskins: The 2009 season is the only campaign in which Garcon posted quality metrics (9.3 YPA), and that was with a healthy Peyton Manning. Robert Griffin III may be a very good pro quarterback, but unless he can play at Manning's elite level (a very big task), the Redskins may be disappointed in this investment.
Reggie Wayne, stayed with Colts: His early-season totals weren't dominant, but from Weeks 12-17 Wayne gained 472 yards on 45 targets (if penalty plays are included). That equates to a 10.3 overall YPA that was highlighted by a 13.0 vertical YPA (VYPA) on 25 vertical targets.
Laurent Robinson, incoming from Dallas to Jaguars: “…[T]here could be some serious upside to this deal for Jacksonville. Robinson had a rare combination of a fantastic short pass YPA (7.8 on 44 targets) and a superb VYPA (14.8 on 34 targets) last season. In addition, he caught five of six bomb passes for 282 yards, so he has the skills to stretch the field. (Note: Bomb passes are aerials thrown 30 or more yards downfield.) Whether he'll have a quarterback in Jacksonville who can get him the ball is another question.”
Reading the coverage…
Houston Texans
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle runs through Mario Williams’ plans and the early developments in free agency for the Texans.
Love doesn’t hold teams together, says Jerome Solomon of the Chronicle. Nice detail here on Williams spending part of Sunday at GM Rick Smith’s house playing video games with Smith’s son.
Four reasons the Texans may have cut Eric Winston, from Lance Zierlein of the Chronicle blog. He should have kept it to three, as No. 4 is not a factor.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts lost Pierre Garcon but managed to re-sign Reggie Wayne, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.
Five reasons the Colts re-signed Reggie Wayne, from Nate Dunlevy at ColtsAuthority.com. I like No. 5 especially.
Garcon is part of the Redskins' receiver-heavy free-agent push, says Mike Jones and Mark Maske of the Washington Post.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union talked to Dwight Lowery after he signed a four-year deal to stay with the Jaguars.
Defensive end Jeremy Mincey also re-signed, says Ganguli.
Dallas receiver Laurent Robinson is visiting the Jaguars, says Ganguli. The receiver pool shrunk significantly and if Robinson is the "big" move for Jacksonville, then they're going to have to really emphasize wideouts in the draft.
Chad Henne could be the new backup to Blaine Gabbert, says Vito Stellino of the T-U.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans-Peyton Manning meeting is today. John Glennon of The Tennessean runs through that and the first day of free agency.
Safety Jordan Babineaux and reserve linebacker and special teamer Patrick Bailey re-signed, says Glennon.
The Titans talked for some time about their defensive needs. But their initial push in free agency is all offense, says Glennon.
Cortland Finnegan landed a big deal in St. Louis, says Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Houston Texans
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle runs through Mario Williams’ plans and the early developments in free agency for the Texans.
Love doesn’t hold teams together, says Jerome Solomon of the Chronicle. Nice detail here on Williams spending part of Sunday at GM Rick Smith’s house playing video games with Smith’s son.
Four reasons the Texans may have cut Eric Winston, from Lance Zierlein of the Chronicle blog. He should have kept it to three, as No. 4 is not a factor.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts lost Pierre Garcon but managed to re-sign Reggie Wayne, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.
Five reasons the Colts re-signed Reggie Wayne, from Nate Dunlevy at ColtsAuthority.com. I like No. 5 especially.
Garcon is part of the Redskins' receiver-heavy free-agent push, says Mike Jones and Mark Maske of the Washington Post.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union talked to Dwight Lowery after he signed a four-year deal to stay with the Jaguars.
Defensive end Jeremy Mincey also re-signed, says Ganguli.
Dallas receiver Laurent Robinson is visiting the Jaguars, says Ganguli. The receiver pool shrunk significantly and if Robinson is the "big" move for Jacksonville, then they're going to have to really emphasize wideouts in the draft.
Chad Henne could be the new backup to Blaine Gabbert, says Vito Stellino of the T-U.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans-Peyton Manning meeting is today. John Glennon of The Tennessean runs through that and the first day of free agency.
Safety Jordan Babineaux and reserve linebacker and special teamer Patrick Bailey re-signed, says Glennon.
The Titans talked for some time about their defensive needs. But their initial push in free agency is all offense, says Glennon.
Cortland Finnegan landed a big deal in St. Louis, says Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Bill Polian drafted receiver Pierre Garcon to the Colts. Here he analyzes Garcon's move to the Redskins.
Receiver Pierre Garcon is the first free agent of note to leave the AFC South, announcing via Facebook that he will sign with the Washington Redskins.
The Colts had bid to keep Garcon and are also expected to lose Reggie Wayne, who is now a free agent.
Bill Polian drafted Garcon out of Mount Union in the sixth round in 2008. Now an ESPN analyst, Polian said Garcon is a great match for Washington.
"He needs refinement with his route running,” Polian said. “... He is a perfect fit with the West Coast offense.”
The Colts lose valuable size and speed, though Garcon has work to do to prove himself a consistent weapon.
"I wanted you all to hear it from me 1st before u saw it on the news... I will be signing with the Washington Redskins and I'm very excited about the opportunity in front of me.Garcon
"I want to thank all Colts fans from the bottom of my heart for all the love and support you've shown me the past 4 years and I hope that at some level u will still follow my career, as I will continue to share my life with you on here..."
The Colts had bid to keep Garcon and are also expected to lose Reggie Wayne, who is now a free agent.
Bill Polian drafted Garcon out of Mount Union in the sixth round in 2008. Now an ESPN analyst, Polian said Garcon is a great match for Washington.
"He needs refinement with his route running,” Polian said. “... He is a perfect fit with the West Coast offense.”
The Colts lose valuable size and speed, though Garcon has work to do to prove himself a consistent weapon.
Outgoing/Incoming: Indianapolis Colts
March, 13, 2012
Mar 13
11:42
AM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
One player I think will be outgoing, one player I think should be incoming, for the Indianapolis Colts once free agency opens Tuesday afternoon.
I’m steering clear of the huge guys on the incoming category, as it’s easy to say a team should covet the best/most expensive player at a position of need.
Outgoing: Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, receivers: The Colts are looking to cut costs, and that continues with them allowing the veteran Wayne to move on, and with limiting what they are willing to pay Garcon. Garcon is an enticing guy with game-breaking speed. But his consistency to this point isn’t what you’d like. Maddening drops aren’t what Andrew Luck will need at the outset.
Incoming: Aubrayo Franklin or Antonio Garay, nose tackles. Franklin was supposed to be a hot commodity last year as he left San Francisco, and was a quieter player in a 4-3 in New Orleans. Garay is older, but probably has a few years left. The Colts can’t answer everything in the draft, and coach Chuck Pagano has no one who can really be a nose tackle in the 3-4 he’d like to employ at least some of the time.
I’m steering clear of the huge guys on the incoming category, as it’s easy to say a team should covet the best/most expensive player at a position of need.
Outgoing: Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, receivers: The Colts are looking to cut costs, and that continues with them allowing the veteran Wayne to move on, and with limiting what they are willing to pay Garcon. Garcon is an enticing guy with game-breaking speed. But his consistency to this point isn’t what you’d like. Maddening drops aren’t what Andrew Luck will need at the outset.
Incoming: Aubrayo Franklin or Antonio Garay, nose tackles. Franklin was supposed to be a hot commodity last year as he left San Francisco, and was a quieter player in a 4-3 in New Orleans. Garay is older, but probably has a few years left. The Colts can’t answer everything in the draft, and coach Chuck Pagano has no one who can really be a nose tackle in the 3-4 he’d like to employ at least some of the time.
» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET
Houston Texans
Key free agents: OLB Mario Williams, C Chris Myers, G Mike Brisiel, TE Joel Dreessen, K Neil Rackers, CB Jason Allen.
Where they stand: The Texans did well to lock up running back Arian Foster with a long-term deal, which meant they didn’t need to franchise him. But it’s going to be next to impossible to retain Williams. The defense did well without him for 11 games in 2011. But it would still be far better with him than not. He’s in position to demand huge dollars on the open market, where plenty of teams are desperate for a premium pass-rusher. He is the line guy who fits the bill. Myers is a big priority, and while he’s a super system fit who’d like to stay, he can be effective in a lot of places and will be courted. Brisiel is a solid starter, and the backup center, so they’d certainly like to keep him as well.
What to expect: Not much. The team ventured into free agency last year to round out the secondary with cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning. But this time around there is little money and their focus will be on trying to lock up guys who are in line to come free in 2012. So that receiver they’ll add could come in the draft instead of in the form of Colts free agent Reggie Wayne or another veteran. They could make some money moves. Receiver/returner Jacoby Jones and inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans currently rate as too pricey.
Indianapolis Colts
Key free agents: WR Pierre Garcon, WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem, WR Anthony Gonzalez, G Mike Pollak, LB Philip Wheeler.
Where they stand: They did well to lock up defensive end Robert Mathis, who is sure to do some outside linebacker work as Indy transitions to a 3-4. Beyond that, it may be tough. They’re letting Peyton Manning go to avoid a big bonus and because of health concerns, so Andrew Luck from Stanford will be on his way in. Will they be aggressive in trying to keep Garcon and Saturday to be a help to Luck? If all the receivers go, they are quite thin. And the interior line needs to be rebuilt, so keeping Saturday for another year could help ease the process. New GM Ryan Grigson is an unknown quantity, and he could be more active in free agency than Bill Polian and Chris Polian were.
What to expect: Again, with Grigson in control and Chuck Pagano a first-time head coach, it’s hard to predict. With the holes on the roster, it’s hard to imagine the Colts won’t do at least a bit of shopping in the mid-priced market. If they do, a cornerback, interior offensive lineman, receiver and cornerback rank as top needs. Pagano is connected to a few guys from Baltimore coming free. Linebacker Jarret Johnson and safety/special-teamer Haruki Nakamura could be targets from the Ravens.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key free agents: S Dwight Lowery, DE Jeremy Mincey, CB Rashean Mathis, DE Matt Roth, OT Guy Whimper, QB Luke McCown.
Where they stand: Lowery has to be priority one. They did good work to fix the safety position last year, so they don’t need to be in position to fix it again. Mincey’s value is up with all the ends who were tagged. Mathis is coming off a torn ACL. They should be able to wait with him and get him back late if they want to see if he can mentor a youngster for one year. They should seek a major upgrade on McCown as a fallback behind Blaine Gabbert.
What to expect: They’ve got a new owner with money and plenty of cap room, but have sent out a strong signal they won’t be super-active. Hopefully that still leaves room for big moves with veteran outsiders. Two ideal candidates who would show a real urgency -- Houston’s outside linebacker/ defensive end Mario Williams and San Diego receiver Vincent Jackson. They have to have veteran receiver help. And don’t sleep on cornerback, where they don’t have a clear No. 1 guy and need depth.
Tennessee Titans
Key free agents: CB Cortland Finnegan, DE Jason Jones, G Jake Scott, FB Ahmard Hall, DE William Hayes, LB Barrett Ruud, S Jordan Babineaux.
Where they stand: They franchised safety Michael Griffin and are expected to sign Babineaux as soon as free agency hits. But they’ve told Finnegan they are letting him go and he could land in Dallas, Detroit or even St. Louis. They have enough at corner to go forward. They made a mistake moving Jones to end and should put him back at tackle if they can retain him, but an outsider may value him more. Hayes and Ruud are goners. A guy like Hall is good in the locker room and should rebound from an off year, but as he’s situational he can’t be any sort of priority.
What to expect: They need a pass-rusher above all else. So while I don’t think they will overpay as much as other candidates for Mario Williams, they should at least dip their toe into the water. They are going to move on from Scott and at least tinker with the interior offensive line. Look for them to sign a second-tier guard or center they think can blossom with them. They do not view receiver as the sort of need many outsiders do, but certainly need depth.
Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET
Houston Texans
Key free agents: OLB Mario Williams, C Chris Myers, G Mike Brisiel, TE Joel Dreessen, K Neil Rackers, CB Jason Allen.
Where they stand: The Texans did well to lock up running back Arian Foster with a long-term deal, which meant they didn’t need to franchise him. But it’s going to be next to impossible to retain Williams. The defense did well without him for 11 games in 2011. But it would still be far better with him than not. He’s in position to demand huge dollars on the open market, where plenty of teams are desperate for a premium pass-rusher. He is the line guy who fits the bill. Myers is a big priority, and while he’s a super system fit who’d like to stay, he can be effective in a lot of places and will be courted. Brisiel is a solid starter, and the backup center, so they’d certainly like to keep him as well.
What to expect: Not much. The team ventured into free agency last year to round out the secondary with cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning. But this time around there is little money and their focus will be on trying to lock up guys who are in line to come free in 2012. So that receiver they’ll add could come in the draft instead of in the form of Colts free agent Reggie Wayne or another veteran. They could make some money moves. Receiver/returner Jacoby Jones and inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans currently rate as too pricey.
Indianapolis Colts
Key free agents: WR Pierre Garcon, WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem, WR Anthony Gonzalez, G Mike Pollak, LB Philip Wheeler.
Where they stand: They did well to lock up defensive end Robert Mathis, who is sure to do some outside linebacker work as Indy transitions to a 3-4. Beyond that, it may be tough. They’re letting Peyton Manning go to avoid a big bonus and because of health concerns, so Andrew Luck from Stanford will be on his way in. Will they be aggressive in trying to keep Garcon and Saturday to be a help to Luck? If all the receivers go, they are quite thin. And the interior line needs to be rebuilt, so keeping Saturday for another year could help ease the process. New GM Ryan Grigson is an unknown quantity, and he could be more active in free agency than Bill Polian and Chris Polian were.
What to expect: Again, with Grigson in control and Chuck Pagano a first-time head coach, it’s hard to predict. With the holes on the roster, it’s hard to imagine the Colts won’t do at least a bit of shopping in the mid-priced market. If they do, a cornerback, interior offensive lineman, receiver and cornerback rank as top needs. Pagano is connected to a few guys from Baltimore coming free. Linebacker Jarret Johnson and safety/special-teamer Haruki Nakamura could be targets from the Ravens.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key free agents: S Dwight Lowery, DE Jeremy Mincey, CB Rashean Mathis, DE Matt Roth, OT Guy Whimper, QB Luke McCown.
Where they stand: Lowery has to be priority one. They did good work to fix the safety position last year, so they don’t need to be in position to fix it again. Mincey’s value is up with all the ends who were tagged. Mathis is coming off a torn ACL. They should be able to wait with him and get him back late if they want to see if he can mentor a youngster for one year. They should seek a major upgrade on McCown as a fallback behind Blaine Gabbert.
What to expect: They’ve got a new owner with money and plenty of cap room, but have sent out a strong signal they won’t be super-active. Hopefully that still leaves room for big moves with veteran outsiders. Two ideal candidates who would show a real urgency -- Houston’s outside linebacker/ defensive end Mario Williams and San Diego receiver Vincent Jackson. They have to have veteran receiver help. And don’t sleep on cornerback, where they don’t have a clear No. 1 guy and need depth.
Tennessee Titans
Key free agents: CB Cortland Finnegan, DE Jason Jones, G Jake Scott, FB Ahmard Hall, DE William Hayes, LB Barrett Ruud, S Jordan Babineaux.
Where they stand: They franchised safety Michael Griffin and are expected to sign Babineaux as soon as free agency hits. But they’ve told Finnegan they are letting him go and he could land in Dallas, Detroit or even St. Louis. They have enough at corner to go forward. They made a mistake moving Jones to end and should put him back at tackle if they can retain him, but an outsider may value him more. Hayes and Ruud are goners. A guy like Hall is good in the locker room and should rebound from an off year, but as he’s situational he can’t be any sort of priority.
What to expect: They need a pass-rusher above all else. So while I don’t think they will overpay as much as other candidates for Mario Williams, they should at least dip their toe into the water. They are going to move on from Scott and at least tinker with the interior offensive line. Look for them to sign a second-tier guard or center they think can blossom with them. They do not view receiver as the sort of need many outsiders do, but certainly need depth.
How the 21 franchise tags from around the NFL affect the teams of the AFC South.
Houston Texans
Salary cap limitations likely mean the Texans are not active in free agency. The market may have shifted on a guy like Reggie Wayne, who could have been attractive with Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker out of the unrestricted free agent picture.
More significantly, the price defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams will be able to attract if he gets to free agency is likely up. The Colts tagged Robert Mathis, the Lions tagged Cliff Avril and the Cardinals tagged Calais Campbell, and they were the next-best pass-rushers for needy teams to target.
Indianapolis Colts
Those three receivers -- Bowe, Jackson and Welker -- disappearing from the market mean that two Colts unrestricted free agents to-be probably fare a bit better. Pierre Garcon has speed and youth to sell and Wayne has veteran wiles and reliability.
The Colts could make another charge at signing Garcon before March 13th, but he may be determined to see what free agency can bring him.
I don’t think they will have much money to spend on free agents, but the offensive line and defensive tackles pools -- their biggest positions of need beyond receiver -- are unchanged.
Jacksonville Jaguars
No one needs a big-time, team-leading wide receiver more than the Jaguars do. I don’t believe they would have been players for Jackson or Welker. But Bowe could have been a guy they were interested in.
Whether or not they will be players for Williams, plan B should have been Mathis. The hit to the potential defensive end market hurts as a big-time pass-rusher is the big defensive need. Cornerback could still be OK with Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan, Kansas City’s Brandon Carr and San Francisco's Carlos Rogers on track to reach free agency.
Tennessee Titans
That San Francisco tagged Dashon Goldson and Oakland franchised Tyvon Branch severely thinned the safety market, which helped prompt Tennessee to tag Michael Griffin. I would have loved to have seen their approach is the two guys from the West Coast were heading for unrestricted free agency.
Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reported that Mathis would have been a target and general manager Ruston Webster had said a special, pass-rushing defensive end was one position for which the team might have been willing to overpay. He didn’t say overpay by a gigantic degree, however. With a bid for Williams unlikely, who’s the next best rusher now?
Houston Texans
Salary cap limitations likely mean the Texans are not active in free agency. The market may have shifted on a guy like Reggie Wayne, who could have been attractive with Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker out of the unrestricted free agent picture.
More significantly, the price defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams will be able to attract if he gets to free agency is likely up. The Colts tagged Robert Mathis, the Lions tagged Cliff Avril and the Cardinals tagged Calais Campbell, and they were the next-best pass-rushers for needy teams to target.
Indianapolis Colts
Those three receivers -- Bowe, Jackson and Welker -- disappearing from the market mean that two Colts unrestricted free agents to-be probably fare a bit better. Pierre Garcon has speed and youth to sell and Wayne has veteran wiles and reliability.
The Colts could make another charge at signing Garcon before March 13th, but he may be determined to see what free agency can bring him.
I don’t think they will have much money to spend on free agents, but the offensive line and defensive tackles pools -- their biggest positions of need beyond receiver -- are unchanged.
Jacksonville Jaguars
No one needs a big-time, team-leading wide receiver more than the Jaguars do. I don’t believe they would have been players for Jackson or Welker. But Bowe could have been a guy they were interested in.
Whether or not they will be players for Williams, plan B should have been Mathis. The hit to the potential defensive end market hurts as a big-time pass-rusher is the big defensive need. Cornerback could still be OK with Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan, Kansas City’s Brandon Carr and San Francisco's Carlos Rogers on track to reach free agency.
Tennessee Titans
That San Francisco tagged Dashon Goldson and Oakland franchised Tyvon Branch severely thinned the safety market, which helped prompt Tennessee to tag Michael Griffin. I would have loved to have seen their approach is the two guys from the West Coast were heading for unrestricted free agency.
Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reported that Mathis would have been a target and general manager Ruston Webster had said a special, pass-rushing defensive end was one position for which the team might have been willing to overpay. He didn’t say overpay by a gigantic degree, however. With a bid for Williams unlikely, who’s the next best rusher now?
With Mathis tagged, whom will Luck throw to?
March, 5, 2012
Mar 5
5:34
PM ET
By
Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com
Andrew Luck's expected to be the Colts’ opening day starting quarterback.
Who’s he throwing to?
Adam Schefter and several others report the Colts have a long-term deal in place with defensive end Robert Mathis, but couldn't wrap things up by the deadline so they applied the tag to hold them over.
Tweeted Mathis: "Still Bleedin BLUE!!! #YaDigg"
That would indicate that they didn't have a plan to use the tag on receiver Pierre Garcon (or Reggie Wayne) if they had Mathis locked up in advance. With the deadline past, they don't get the tag back.
Mathis is sure to be asked to stand up and move around some as an outside linebacker as coach Chuck Pagano begins a transition to a 3-4. The defensive end's absence from the free-agent market adds to the value of Mario Williams if he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Mathis and Cliff Avril of the Lions were the next-best veteran pass rushers and they were both, technically, tagged by the 4 p.m. ET deadline.
Barring a deal for one in the next eight days, Garcon and Wayne are going to become free agents and flee. Garcon has passed on one offer, the specifics of which we don't know. Last we heard from Wayne, he'd not heard from the team and took that as meaning they were moving on. The far less-proven Anthony Gonzalez is also unsigned.
The Colts, for right now, have two receivers with experience under contract:
Luck should have tight end Dallas Clark as well. But the Colts second pass-catching tight end, Jacob Tamme, is also heading for unrestricted free agency.
So, while the Colts may be set at quarterback with Luck as the No. 1 pick if they part with Manning this week, they’ve got a load of work to do at receiver as well as on the offensive line and at running back.
And that’s just on offense.
Who’s he throwing to?
Adam Schefter and several others report the Colts have a long-term deal in place with defensive end Robert Mathis, but couldn't wrap things up by the deadline so they applied the tag to hold them over.
Tweeted Mathis: "Still Bleedin BLUE!!! #YaDigg"
That would indicate that they didn't have a plan to use the tag on receiver Pierre Garcon (or Reggie Wayne) if they had Mathis locked up in advance. With the deadline past, they don't get the tag back.
Mathis is sure to be asked to stand up and move around some as an outside linebacker as coach Chuck Pagano begins a transition to a 3-4. The defensive end's absence from the free-agent market adds to the value of Mario Williams if he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Mathis and Cliff Avril of the Lions were the next-best veteran pass rushers and they were both, technically, tagged by the 4 p.m. ET deadline.
Barring a deal for one in the next eight days, Garcon and Wayne are going to become free agents and flee. Garcon has passed on one offer, the specifics of which we don't know. Last we heard from Wayne, he'd not heard from the team and took that as meaning they were moving on. The far less-proven Anthony Gonzalez is also unsigned.
The Colts, for right now, have two receivers with experience under contract:
- Austin Collie, whose excellent as a third guy but has concussion concerns.
- Blair White, whose minimal success would seem largely a product of Peyton Manning.
Luck should have tight end Dallas Clark as well. But the Colts second pass-catching tight end, Jacob Tamme, is also heading for unrestricted free agency.
So, while the Colts may be set at quarterback with Luck as the No. 1 pick if they part with Manning this week, they’ve got a load of work to do at receiver as well as on the offensive line and at running back.
And that’s just on offense.
Franchise tags have to be given out by 4 p.m. ET, 3 p.m. CT today.
The Titans are tagging safety Michael Griffin at $6.2 million. The Jaguars have tagged kicker Josh Scobee at a number that will be around $2.65 million.
Are there other possibilities in the AFC South?
Houston Texans
It would take some incredible accounting work to clear $22 million to tag outside linebacker Mario Williams and that number would hang over the team. It’s one thing to buy time with it, but what if he signed it and you’re stuck with a number for him that accounts for 17 or 18 percent of your cap? Do you cut people and limit what you can do going forward by taking on that number? Williams can be a tremendous player, but those two 2s look like a pair of handcuffs to me.
Center Chris Myers is a guy they really can’t afford to lose. But a tag number of $9.5 million factors in left tackle contracts as there is one tag number for all offensive linemen. I think they should put it on him if they can, hopefully as a stopgap to buy time to negotiate something long term. I don’t know their cap specifics right now, but believe it would be awfully difficult to make this work.
Indianapolis Colts
So the choice appears to be between defensive end Robert Mathis and receiver Pierre Garcon.
Mathis is over 30, so a one-year measure would make sense though he wouldn’t be happy about it. Once he came to terms with it, however, I would think a new defensive staff could sell him on some hybrid work when they shift to 3-4. How much do you factor in where he might land? If you set him free, you could face him twice a year as a member of the Jaguars or Titans.
Garcon is young and has one super-valuable commodity -- speed. But he’s inconsistent and unreliable and it would be hard to predict how he would react to a big-money guarantee.
Either will be a hot commodity on the open market. I think the reliable Reggie Wayne might actually be the best choice because of how he could help Andrew Luck. But between Mathis and Garcon, I’d go Mathis.
Ideal scenario: Tag the one you're furthest apart from in contract talks and get the other signed before March 13th. Unlikely, I know.
The Titans are tagging safety Michael Griffin at $6.2 million. The Jaguars have tagged kicker Josh Scobee at a number that will be around $2.65 million.
Are there other possibilities in the AFC South?
Houston Texans
It would take some incredible accounting work to clear $22 million to tag outside linebacker Mario Williams and that number would hang over the team. It’s one thing to buy time with it, but what if he signed it and you’re stuck with a number for him that accounts for 17 or 18 percent of your cap? Do you cut people and limit what you can do going forward by taking on that number? Williams can be a tremendous player, but those two 2s look like a pair of handcuffs to me.
Center Chris Myers is a guy they really can’t afford to lose. But a tag number of $9.5 million factors in left tackle contracts as there is one tag number for all offensive linemen. I think they should put it on him if they can, hopefully as a stopgap to buy time to negotiate something long term. I don’t know their cap specifics right now, but believe it would be awfully difficult to make this work.
Indianapolis Colts
So the choice appears to be between defensive end Robert Mathis and receiver Pierre Garcon.
Mathis is over 30, so a one-year measure would make sense though he wouldn’t be happy about it. Once he came to terms with it, however, I would think a new defensive staff could sell him on some hybrid work when they shift to 3-4. How much do you factor in where he might land? If you set him free, you could face him twice a year as a member of the Jaguars or Titans.
Garcon is young and has one super-valuable commodity -- speed. But he’s inconsistent and unreliable and it would be hard to predict how he would react to a big-money guarantee.
Either will be a hot commodity on the open market. I think the reliable Reggie Wayne might actually be the best choice because of how he could help Andrew Luck. But between Mathis and Garcon, I’d go Mathis.
Ideal scenario: Tag the one you're furthest apart from in contract talks and get the other signed before March 13th. Unlikely, I know.
The money isn’t mine. I’m not certain about what you can afford and what the market will pay when free agency opens on March 13. I’m not positive about your plans and schemes.
But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.
And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:
1) Land at least one premium free-agent wide receiver. I’d stack them something like this: San Diego’s Vincent Jackson, Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe, Buffalo’s Steve Johnson, New Orleans’ Marques Colston. If you’re bold and will take two, I like Indianapolis’s Pierre Garcon or New Orleans’ Robert Meachem.
2) Re-sign safety Dwight Lowery. Just a year ago, you were a mess at safety. You did fine work signing Dawan Landry and trading for Lowery and shifting him from corner to fix it. You have to keep it fixed. Hopefully he realizes what a great fit he is in a top-flight defense. But there are a lot of safety-needy teams out there, including your AFC South rival Titans. Lowery needs to be in your lineup in 2012.
3) Be a player for Mario Williams. If Houston’s outside linebacker/defensive end becomes a free agent as I expect, you can afford to make a huge splash with him. And you’re a premier pass-rushing defensive end and a cornerback away from being a premier defense. If Williams goes elsewhere and the Colts’ Robert Mathis comes free, he should be the second target.
4) Shop free-agent quarterbacks to upgrade the backup plan for Blaine Gabbert. Chad Henne probably finds a better situation. Kyle Orton too. How about Jason Campbell? The new backup needs to have the right disposition -- sit back, offer guidance, run a good scout team. But he also needs to be able to play, because if Gabbert is bad again, you can’t just sacrifice the season. You have to have a better backup than Luke McCown.
5) Let defensive end Jeremy Mincey explore the market. He’s a supreme effort guy you’d like to have back. But he’s not worth the kind of money I imagine he’s looking for. If the rest of the league agrees, you’ll have a chance at him later. If he gets swept up, then someone likely overpaid.
6) Monitor your defensive tackles closely. Tyson Alualu's knee surgery wasn't said to be major, but the knee kept him from peak performance last season and they need to get it right. And Terrance Knighton's weight cannot continue to be an issue going forward. Ultimately it's on him, of course, but the new staff needs to find the best, most helpful approach.
7) Wait on Rashean Mathis unless he's cheap right away. The corner will be an unrestricted free agent but is coming off a torn ACL. He's a great team guy and can still play, but the end is in sight. You want him on a cheap, short deal and hopefully you draft the guy in April who replaces him in 2013.
8) While you have plenty of cap room, you still want to be conscious of paying reasonable prices. You can wait to decide on them later. But even a healthy Aaron Kampman isn’t worth a $4.97 million base. And fullback Greg Jones played only 38.7 percent of the team’s snaps last season but is schedule to make $3.4 million. Too much.
But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.
And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:
1) Land at least one premium free-agent wide receiver. I’d stack them something like this: San Diego’s Vincent Jackson, Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe, Buffalo’s Steve Johnson, New Orleans’ Marques Colston. If you’re bold and will take two, I like Indianapolis’s Pierre Garcon or New Orleans’ Robert Meachem.
2) Re-sign safety Dwight Lowery. Just a year ago, you were a mess at safety. You did fine work signing Dawan Landry and trading for Lowery and shifting him from corner to fix it. You have to keep it fixed. Hopefully he realizes what a great fit he is in a top-flight defense. But there are a lot of safety-needy teams out there, including your AFC South rival Titans. Lowery needs to be in your lineup in 2012.
3) Be a player for Mario Williams. If Houston’s outside linebacker/defensive end becomes a free agent as I expect, you can afford to make a huge splash with him. And you’re a premier pass-rushing defensive end and a cornerback away from being a premier defense. If Williams goes elsewhere and the Colts’ Robert Mathis comes free, he should be the second target.
4) Shop free-agent quarterbacks to upgrade the backup plan for Blaine Gabbert. Chad Henne probably finds a better situation. Kyle Orton too. How about Jason Campbell? The new backup needs to have the right disposition -- sit back, offer guidance, run a good scout team. But he also needs to be able to play, because if Gabbert is bad again, you can’t just sacrifice the season. You have to have a better backup than Luke McCown.
5) Let defensive end Jeremy Mincey explore the market. He’s a supreme effort guy you’d like to have back. But he’s not worth the kind of money I imagine he’s looking for. If the rest of the league agrees, you’ll have a chance at him later. If he gets swept up, then someone likely overpaid.
6) Monitor your defensive tackles closely. Tyson Alualu's knee surgery wasn't said to be major, but the knee kept him from peak performance last season and they need to get it right. And Terrance Knighton's weight cannot continue to be an issue going forward. Ultimately it's on him, of course, but the new staff needs to find the best, most helpful approach.
7) Wait on Rashean Mathis unless he's cheap right away. The corner will be an unrestricted free agent but is coming off a torn ACL. He's a great team guy and can still play, but the end is in sight. You want him on a cheap, short deal and hopefully you draft the guy in April who replaces him in 2013.
8) While you have plenty of cap room, you still want to be conscious of paying reasonable prices. You can wait to decide on them later. But even a healthy Aaron Kampman isn’t worth a $4.97 million base. And fullback Greg Jones played only 38.7 percent of the team’s snaps last season but is schedule to make $3.4 million. Too much.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Paul Kuharsky
Kuharsky joined ESPN.com in 2008 after 12 years covering the Oilers/Titans and the NFL for The (Nashville) Tennessean. The New Jersey native and Columbia graduate lives in Nashville with his wife and son.
