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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks, including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set in which they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense and helps set up Luck and the offense with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

Should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans' ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

Reading the coverage ...

Who had the best defensive end season in AFC South history? Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report asks and examines.

Houston Texans

The Texans are playing a numbers game, as Whitney Mercilus is now wearing 59 (which used to belong to DeMeco Ryans) and undrafted rookie linebacker Shawn Loiseau has Mario Williams’ old 90, says Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle.

Houston plans to bid for the 2017 Super Bowl, says David Barron of the Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

Ryan Grigson thinks Cassius Vaughn has not hit his ceiling yet, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Mike Chappell of the Star discusses continuing coverage in Indy of Peyton Manning and other former Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Thirty-year-old fullback Naufahu Tahi served his Mormon mission in Jacksonville and now he’s back, trying to earn a roster spot with the Jaguars, says Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Why Mike Thomas is not likely to be on the roster bubble, from Ganguli. Thomas would really have to bomb for this to become any sort of an issue, and Lee Evans would have to really bounce back.

The Jaguars have opened up contract talks with some of their draft picks, says Ganguli.

Tennessee Titans

It’s time for Titans cornerback Jason McCourty to take on a bigger leadership role, writes John Glennon of The Tennessean. I agree and I think McCourty is ready to do it.

Glennon found Golf Channel video of Jordan Babineaux getting golf tips.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- At an appearance at Lucas Oil Stadium this evening, Andrew Luck said people smarter than him would be deciding on whether Coby Fleener was the guy for the Colts at No. 34.

Those people, led by general manager Ryan Grigson, decided Luck’s Stanford teammate was, in fact, the right guy.

Fleener is the team’s second-round pick, and will be a prime target for Luck just as he was in college.

The Colts have a couple dependable receivers in Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. Beyond that, they’ve got a reclamation project in Donnie Avery and a tight end who’s more a blocker than a receiver in Brody Eldridge.

Fleener is a giant get and fits perfectly with the idea of surrounding Luck with weapons who will maximize his chances at success.

I wasn’t alone in being surprised he made it out of the first round.

Now I expect the Colts will start to look for defenders as they have major holes at cornerback, defensive tackle and linebacker.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Grigson's film study of Andrew Luck took him beyond reads and recognition, mechanics and throws.

“You’re talking about a guy who, when there is a busted play or he throws an interception, he runs down and hits like a linebacker,” the Colts' general manager said. “On a trick play, he shows the ball skills of an elite receiver.”

Those are nice clips from Stanford, for sure, and they reveal much about the Indianapolis Colts' new quarterback.

But with Luck officially their man, Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have effectively taken a pledge to add people and craft a scheme to maximize his chances at success -- and not when he turns into a defender or a receiver. If the Colts' new regime stays true to that obligation, it shouldn’t be long before Luck is doing what top NFL quarterbacks do -- completing passes in critical situations and leading his team to wins and playoff appearances.

It’s a familiar storyline for sure. It's the same oath the franchise took with Peyton Manning in 1998.

“I think this thing happened 14 years ago,” Pagano said. “I think it’s all happening again, right before our eyes.”

Pagano went on to rattle off a list of qualities everybody wants in his quarterback and top players: football IQ, character, integrity, work ethic, good family background, worldliness, humility, leadership, passion and competitiveness.

“When you look at clean players across the board, when you talk about height, weight, speed, intelligence -- A to Z, if you want to label him a 9 or 10 in every one of those categories, you probably can,” Pagano said.

The Colts are not slated to pick again until 34th, the second pick of the second round Friday night.

A chorus of analysts say the Colts are duty-bound to add someone who can help Luck, despite the pull that Pagano, a former defensive coordinator, might feel for a defender. My opinion is they don’t absolutely have to go with offense the next time they are on the clock, but in this draft and until the roster is filled out, they should lean that direction more often than not.

Grigson emphasized “this is a team” and that the Colts will do things with a team mindset, acquiring good players, regardless of position.

But he also admitted the obvious.

“Of course you want to protect him the best you can, you want to put players around him that are going to make him comfortable, you want to do things to help facilitate him being great,” Grigson said.

Pagano has emphasized running the ball well and stopping the run, elements that are typically regarded as providing aid to a young quarterback, but elements too that have become less and less important to Super Bowl-winning teams in the modern NFL.

“You’ve got to protect the kid, you’ve got to put enough pieces and enough playmakers around him,” Pagano said. “... You can add a piece here and you can add a piece there to make sure that everything doesn’t rely on Andrew making plays with his arm, and running around making plays with his feet outside the pocket, and extending plays and things like that. We’ve got to play great defense, too, I’m not going to slight that.”

The Colts want to protect Luck with good blocking but are conscious that they will have to protect him from himself as he looks to inherit Manning’s mantle, revive a franchise coming off a horrific year that prompted monumental changes and give the city a new sporting face.

“He’s going to be eager to come in here and think that he’s got to carry this whole thing on his shoulders,” Pagano said. “And that’s the first thing we’re going to tell him. He doesn’t have to do that. He’s just got to do what he does, and that’s play quarterback. And he plays it really well.”

As good as he is coming into the league, Luck is not a finished product. What great collegian is?

Pagano hired Bruce Arians as his offensive coordinator because he effectively helped shape Manning here early on as well.

The new quarterback will arrive in town Friday knowing he’s got plenty he can work on as he evolves into a professional. Play calling can be a big help to him as well, Pagano said.

I wrote earlier of traits Luck has that date back to high school, and how they can be contagious for a rebuilding franchise. He said he doesn’t know whether his longtime ability to compartmentalize will be needed more or less as he becomes a full-time football player. It’s just another of the many things he will learn in the months and years ahead.

For right now, Luck said the most exciting part of things is becoming part of a new locker room and getting to “meet the guys.” It was a Manning-esque comment, deflecting focus, aiming to share it.

Luck said it’ll be an honor to throw to Reggie Wayne, whom he called a future Hall of Famer, as well as Austin Collie and Donnie Avery. He said it will be big to be able to learn leadership qualities from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And he seemed thrilled to hear Grigson and Pagano talk about how they’ll surround him.

“It’s exciting to be part of a team where they are saying that they need playmakers and all of that,” he said. “I’m looking forward to it. ... You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself. You have to realize you have to go through a whole process leading up to a game through a season.

“That being said, I do have high expectations for myself. And I’ll try to do the best I can. I know it’s cliché, but I’ll try to live up to my own expectations and fit in with all the guys and then do the best we can.”

Thoughts on the Colts' draft from two people involved in evaluating personnel for NFL teams:

Guy No. 1:

“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”

“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”

“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”

“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”

Guy No. 2:

“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “

“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.

“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”

“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”

“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”

This week as I spoke with some NFL personnel evaluators, I asked them about Andrew Luck.

I was struck by the contrasting opinions of two of them.

Neither has an argument against the Colts’ selection of Luck tonight with the No. 1 pick in the draft. But they feel differently about the reviews of Luck that have rolled in building up to tonight.

Here they are:

Critique One

"Indy gets a chance to take the best quarterback in Ryan Grigson’s first draft. What a gift. You don’t have to go through all the lumps with a guy who needs time. He’s the best player in a long time.

"Luck and (Robert Griffin III) are not even in the same league. Luck is so much better. Only the roster will hold him back. He’s a good enough player they can get him through it. I think he will have some success this year, some games where he looks pretty good. He’ll get hammered in some games.

"With a few pieces they can be a god team again, it won’t take too long. They get two of the top 34 here, next year they probably pick high again. The second year they need a home run in the first round and a real solid second. Those two drafts are the building blocks for six or seven years."

Critique Two

"I’m not buying he’s the best prospect since John Elway. I watched him a lot, not a ton, but a lot.

"Stanford was in jumbo half the time and half his passes were little flips to the fullback or somebody wide open. Play-action, boot, real retro, old-school stuff. Shootouts? He hasn’t really won, you can blame the field goal kicker or whatever.

"They ran 40 times -- power 30 times. They were in jumbo and they out-physicaled smaller teams. It was not so much, 'You’re the next Aaron Rodgers, go light them up.'

"I would not have a concern drafting him at No. 1, I think he’ll be good. He’s worthy. But the Elway and Peyton Manning comparisons? I don’t know if that buildup is too high for him. He won’t have the run game from Stanford. He’s smart, athletic and strong, but he’s got an average arm.

"In the NFL now you have to rip it. And I don’t see him attacking the field like some guys outside with comebacks and stops. He’s a touch passer, drop it down the chimney. At Stanford, he threw to a lot of guys who were wide open. Wide open."

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

General manager Rick Smith’s expecting a top pick who impacts the team, says Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle. Robertson interpreted Smith’s comments as suggesting offensive line or linebacker as the most likely first-round leanings.

Houston perspective on Andrew Luck, whose dad, Oliver Luck, was an Oilers quarterback, from John McClain of the Chronicle.

Kicker Neil Rackers left the Texans for Washington, says Mark Berman of Fox 26. Rackers said the Texans didn’t make a big push for him.

Indianapolis Colts

GM Ryan Grigson finally said publicly that Luck is the Colts’ man. Now can the quarterback pry No. 12 from Quan Cosby? Mike Chappell’s story from the Indianapolis Star.

Luck is ready for the NFL and the Colts, says Bob Kravitz of the Star in this video.

Indianapolis needs play-making linebackers and Chappell previews the position in this draft.

Chuck Pagano loves the enthusiasm at minicamp, says Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

General manager Gene Smith has built a reputation as one of the staunchest NFL decision-makers with regard to character issues, says Gene Frenette.

Former Jaguars receivers coach Ted Monken went on to become offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State and tells Frenette why Justin Blackmon would be a great fit for the Jaguars. Odds seem slim that the receiver is still available at No. 7.

The Jaguars' draft strategy needs to change and produce some skill-position players who can help score points, says Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher Report.

Tennessee Titans

Every time the Titans pick, general manager Ruston Webster will be looking at a group of six players from the Titans' board, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Whatever cornerback the Titans add in whatever round, he’ll need to be a versatile player, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Once again, Matt Hasselbeck is ready to defend his job, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

I can never imagine the former Colts regime allowing a TV camera in their draft room.

But Ryan Grigson is allowing NFL Network in. It's not like we'll see Indianapolis' board, but we'll see more than we've ever seen before. And Phillip B. Wilson says cell phones are now allowed in the locker room when the media visits.

Two small signs of a new openness that suggest we'll get to know the Colts better moving forward than we have in the past.

It’s been a poorly kept secret for a long time.

But now, the Colts have finally informed Andrew Luck he will be the name called with the first pick in the draft, reports ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

We’ve debated the value of not saying it would be Luck. Just Thursday, Colts general manager Ryan Grigson said the team had decided, but he wasn’t ready to share.

It was his prerogative, for sure. But it seemed like a game intended to draw maximum attention to Indianapolis and to maximize the opportunities for owner Jim Irsay to hit us with cryptic tweets.

Luck is in the mold of Peyton Manning, and that No. 1 pick in 1998 worked out pretty well. Irsay and the Colts have long envisioned building the franchise, again, around a centerpiece pocket quarterback who will bring a combination of smarts and athleticism.

All indications are that Robert Griffin III is highly regarded, too, and is likely to have a great NFL career like Luck. But the same thing was being said about Manning and Ryan Leaf in 1998. Luck and Griffin will have to break with the typical odds for both to hit.

The Colts aren’t concerned with Griffin.

Luck’s their man. It’s official now. It’s time to maximize his resources and get this rebuild started.

A 3-4 nose tackle has been featured on virtually every list of Indianapolis' needs.

Having a guy who can demand multiple blockers in the middle is a necessity if Chuck Pagano is going to be able to play his preferred front as the team transitions from a 4-3.

GM Ryan Grigson told Indianapolis reporters Wednesday that Brandon McKinney, a free-agent addition who played for Pagano in Baltimore, and holdover Antonio Johnson can man the position. McKinney was listed at 6-foot-2, 345 pounds and Johnson as 6-3, 310 last season.

“We have two really big (players), McKinney and Mookie (Johnson) are both big guys and they fit that mold at nose for us,” Grigson said. “Again, you are always looking to improve. Nose is another thing, like when we signed Brandon and Brandon is a good player coming from a top defense which is comforting to know. Backup or not, if you are a backup on the Ravens and you have a handful of starts you are probably pretty darn good. The film doesn’t lie. He is a very strong, hard guy to move.

“There are not many people in the draft, free agency or really on planet Earth that are 350 that can play this game. There are not many of them. They are hard to find, but once you find them you have to hang on to them and you have to try to acquire the best ones you can because it is a very important piece in our defense.”

McKinney certainly eases the desperation of the Colts at the spot.

Scouts Inc. described him this way at the start of free agency.

McKinney is a massive body with great power and limited athleticism. He can anchor well versus the run but lacks quickness and range to make plays outside the tackle box. He flashes power to push the pocket but is very limited in rushing the passer. McKinney has good pop and power to stymie blockers at the point of attack but is inconsistent to disengage to the ball. He does a nice job restricting running lanes and is best on goal-line and short-yardage situations.

They can play with him as their front-line nose, for sure.

Johnson is hardly the prototype, however. He’s been part of a 4-3 front during his five seasons with the Titans and Colts.

Like at many positions, the Colts could use depth at nose tackle.

Presuming the Colts make Andrew Luck the No. 1 pick in the draft on April 26, will they focus the rest of their draft on building the offense around him?

In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, ESPN’s Jon Gruden was asked about the necessity of giving Luck help in the rest of the draft.

"I think the Colts are a lot different team now, obviously, then they were five years ago. Not only do they have to address needs in the draft, they’re going to have to continue to do that after the draft and in free agency. Obviously a quarterback’s success rate is largely dependent upon those around him, not just on the field but you’ve got to embrace a new system.

"I know Bruce Arians is coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers (as offensive coordinator), they’ve got a new head coach (in Chuck Pagano). They’ve got to increase their personnel. Marvin Harrison is gone. Reggie Wayne is at a different stage in his career. Dallas Clark is gone. I don’t know who the feature back is going to be.

"So I would assume, if Indianapolis does indeed select Andrew Luck, that they will try to upgrade the supporting cast on the field as much as possible."

I think general manager Ryan Grigson will likely need to be careful about leaning too much on one side of the ball.

While the Colts need help at receiver, tight end, on the offensive line and possibly at running back, they also need a strong safety, interior defensive linemen and cornerbacks.

Let’s remember Pagano is a defensive guy and that there are plenty of ways significant defensive additions can help Luck, too -- like by getting him the ball back in good field position.

There is buzz. There are small nuggets.

But as we try to predict what the teams of the AFC South will do in the NFL draft at the end of the month, let’s remember this: There are a lot of people with minimal or no track records involved in the process, and those people as much as anyone have the ability to keep their scouts quiet.

The Texans are the same as they’ve been.

The Jaguars aren’t vastly different, though new owner Shad Khan could be of some influence in the overall thinking.

The Titans have a new general manager. While Ruston Webster was very influential in last year’s great haul as Mike Reinfeldt’s right-hand man, this is the first draft where he’s running the show and making the final call.

The Colts have a new general manager, and Ryan Grigson is younger and less experienced than Webster, and we have very little actual idea of how exactly he will run a draft room and ultimately make decisions.

I don't think either guy is going to spend a lot of time serving up information, or misinformation, as they complete preparations. So the search for real signals can be even more difficult.

We know Houston GM Rick Smith likes to take tight ends. We know Jacksonville GM Gene Smith likes to mine small schools.

What we don’t know about Webster and Grigson limits our ability to make educated guesses about what they will do. But it sure adds intrigue to what will unfold.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major personnel losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got -- starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold on to players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

Rashad Butler and Antoine Caldwell are getting starting offensive line jobs by default, but both intend to justify the team’s faith that they can step up, writes Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle.

Considering Pythagorean wins and the Texans, with Nate Dunlevy of Bleacher report.

Indianapolis Colts

General manager Ryan Grigson said in the firmest terms possible that defensive end Dwight Freeney isn’t going to be traded or released despite his big cap number, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 20-28 since Gene Smith became general manager, but Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union gives Smith through 2013 to see if he’s got this team on the right course.

It’s not fair to expect Laurent Robinson to be Jimmy Smith, says John Oehser of the Jaguars' website.

Tennessee Titans

A rundown of the Titans' draft picks after they didn’t get any compensatory draft selections, from Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.