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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars in 2012.

Dream scenario (10-6): Mike Mularkey’s offensive scheme does for Blaine Gabbert what it did early on for Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Gabbert silences his stable of critics, playing with newfound poise and confidence and finding himself in situations in which he’s comfortable and can show off the arm that was a big reason he was a top 10 pick.

The second-year quarterback is well-protected as he works his way through progressions and spreads the ball around to a much-improved receiving corps headed by Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon. With the passing offense faring far better, Maurice Jones-Drew's hammer hits even harder because his carries are less predictable.

Defensively, the team is healthy all season long in karmic payback for last year’s slew of injuries.

Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton put it all together, with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny playing great behind them, and no one can even ponder running up the middle against the Jaguars. Rookie second-rounder Andre Branch provides a serious boost to the pass rush, and the linebackers get involved in pressuring the quarterback. When they don’t get a sufficient push, the coverage holds up.

And rookie punter Bryan Anger regularly hits bombs and pins teams deep, semi-justifying his third-round draft status.

Mularkey wins coach of the year as the Jaguars qualify for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (4-12): New coaches, a new system and new receivers don’t make for a new Gabbert, and he struggles in his second season much as he did as a rookie. A rough start means the fan base calls for backup Chad Henne, and Mularkey finds himself in a tough spot with a quick quarterback controversy.

Henne eventually gets the call but doesn’t play much better, so the team is over-reliant on the run game. The defense, meanwhile, can’t overcome the lack of a pass rush. It gives up too many passing yards and too many big plays because quarterbacks have time to wait for targets to break open. Then the Jaguars begin to blitz more to amp things up but pay a price by giving up big plays out of high-risk, high-reward situations.

Owner Shahid Khan, used to life as a businessman who wins, says or does something controversial that makes things even messier. The Jaguars actually finish a game worse than they did in Jack Del Rio’s final season, leaving Denver’s defensive coordinator shrugging and people removing some responsibility for 2011 from him.

When Tim Tebow said he was not in position to choose between the Jets and Jaguars when Denver was trading him, it sure seemed like he wasn’t being entirely truthful.

John Elway contradicted him and I concluded that Tebow was being literal and that behind the scenes he was talking to agent Jimmy Sexton who was talking to Elway and the Broncos. Players often fail to realize the degree to which their agent is serving as a power broking middle man and speaking on their behalf, and it was a complicated situation for Tebow. Peter King of SI.com reported that Tebow absolutely had a say in where he landed.

The Jaguars could have upped their offer and landed him, but owner Shah Khan didn’t see why to do it when Tebow didn’t want to join them.

Khan talked with Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

"That would have been the worst thing for Jacksonville and the worst thing for him. He didn’t want to come, obviously. … Any one of the 53 players we have, have to be committed to Jacksonville, making us be the best team we are. The question was: Did he want to come? And if the decision had been taken out [of his hands] and we got him, that would not be good for him, or for us."

Khan told Ganguli he got a full explanation from Gene Smith about why the Broncos didn’t draft Tebow, and then asked his GM to prepare to make an offer. The owner was in touch with Denver from the moment the Broncos got Peyton Manning, and he said his legal team actually found and investigated the contract language that impacted finances of the deal and prompted some teams to drop off.

As I wrote when Tebow landed with the Jets, he did the Jaguars a favor, as they can now say he didn’t want to come home to Jacksonville.

"It’s well-thought, it’s logical, we’ve offered more money and we have a higher draft pick," Khan said. "It’s up to the player. It’s not up to me. We’ve done everything.

"In a way, this turned out great. If he doesn’t want to come, here we would have blown through a draft pick, blown through money, because cash and salary cap, you’ve blown through all that and we have a player who doesn’t want to be there. From their viewpoint that is a far, far better alternative."

The Jags have done everything. Tebow didn't want them.

Both are true. Both fit neatly in them explaining why he's elsewhere as they move on without him.

Josh from Jacksonville writes: What where the Jags thinking going into free agency? At multiple Team Teal rallies Shad Khan said we were "All In" and we were really going to improve through FA and the draft. What happened? I don't think we fixed anything through FA and we still have the same needs going into the draft as we did going into free agency. Fans are frustrated and feel lied to. I'm not saying we should have signed everyone with a big name but we didn't even take a swing at a playmaker. I didn't realize "all in" was Laurent Robinson and Chad Henne. I'm all out of excuses for Gene Smith.

Paul Kuharsky: You raise good points, and I think your feelings reflect those of many Jaguars fans. The other key thing here is that free agency will never be this good again under this CBA. It mandates spending, and teams that have to spend will spend to keep their own players. And that means fewer good players make it to free agency.

But consider where you aim your disappointment. Is it Smith, or did Khan not fund a bigger foray in to free agency?

Matt in Indianapolis writes: What are the Colts going to do at the RB position?

Paul Kuharsky: I don’t know. But if they are a better run-blocking team, I can see Donald Brown and Delone Carter being a functional combo platter.

LuvYaBlue77 from Camden, Del., writes: So Paul if you were the Titans GM would you be done in FA? I thought Tracy Porter/Jason Jones were worth a 1 yr contract. Lastly, where would you look in the draft?

Paul Kuharsky: Still look for cheap depth, maybe an offensive line candidate. Jones has a knee issue that scared them, and he was free to choose to go. I would have left too, after they couldn’t figure out my position. I like Porter, but I like Alterraun Verner too. Defensive end remains the top priority. But they could go a lot of different ways at No. 20.

Joey from San Antonio, Texas, writes: I know he isn't a current AFC South player, but I don't see why certain teams in the division shouldn't target him... So my question is why isn't the market bigger for Mike Wallace from the Steelers? He would be a nice target for Andrew Luck in Indy, and Jacksonville could use the help as well. Houston still needs a reliable #2 behind Andre, and as a Titans fan, I certainly wouldn't turn him down either.

Paul Kuharsky: Wallace isn’t an unrestricted free agent, he’s a restricted free agent. The Colts can’t get him to help Luck, because the compensation for him would be the first-round pick they’ll be using to draft Luck. The process for an RFA like Wallace: Sign him to an offer sheet, which will be expensive. If the Steelers don’t match, give up your original first round pick as compensation. Other AFC south teams: Jaguars have the seventh pick and might use it for a pass rusher, though they certainly need a receiver. Titans think they are OK at WR and have other needs. Texans have cap restrictions that would make it hard to entice Wallace.

Jeff Oxford from Denver writes: Hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. I love being right.

Paul Kuharsky: Hearty congrats!

Now can you please tell me what it is you were right about?

He’s a hometown hero and he played for the nearby Gators in college, where he was part of two national championships and won the Heisman Trophy.

I understand the reason so many predicted Tim Tebow would land in Jacksonville, but he’s now a New York Jet, and that’s a good thing for the Jaguars.

Please, please, please, even in hindsight, can we cease the exaggerations about the effect that Tebow would have had on the tarps at EverBank Stadium?

The Jaguars didn’t have an easy time selling all the seats they needed to get blackouts lifted last season, coming down to the wire and relying on corporate help. They would have had to sell those seats first.

Then we were talking about roughly 10,000 additional seats.

The single biggest failure in the thinking for the city of Jacksonville as it gutted and rebuilt the Gator Bowl into an NFL stadium in order to land the Jaguars was to make it big. That was to accommodate the annual Georgia-Florida football game. The "World’s Largest Cocktail Party" draws well from two big college fan bases. They use all their seats and add some for that.

But even with tarps, EverBank Field holds 67,164. That’s more than Soldier Field.

No matter who’s on their roster, is it reasonable for the small-market Jaguars, with their minimal history, to expect to fill a stadium bigger than the one the Bears have in Chicago?

Tebow is certainly popular in Jacksonville.

But did we really think they were going to have a tarp-lifting ceremony if they traded for him? His presence was going to sell 10,000 tickets?

We realize that not everyone who lives in Florida is a Florida fan, right? A share of those people are Miami and Florida State devotees. A share are relocated Northerners without any college devotion.

I don’t think Tebow would have helped sell anything close to 10,000 tickets, and none of the people I talked to in North Florida thought so either.

So let’s relax with that exaggeration.

And let’s remember that a tarp-lifting ceremony would have come with the very real possibility of a Tebow failure leading to a quieter, tarp-replacement ceremony.

That second event would have been as much a franchise killer as anything.

A few more thoughts on Tebow and Jacksonville, even in light of it being a dead issue:

1) If Tebow landed in Jacksonville, it would have been a force by owner Shad Khan and against the will of general manager Gene Smith and coach Mike Mularkey.

He wouldn’t have come in as the starter, he’d have come in as a third-stringer who could have run some special packages.

2) If the Jaguars wanted to make a splash, they should have gone out and gotten defensive end Mario Williams or receiver Vincent Jackson. You know, guys who would play right from the start and address major positions of need.

3) Mularkey’s first term as a head coach in Buffalo ended, in part, because he wound up without the control he had been told he would have.

It would have been terrible if mere months after he was hired in Jacksonville Khan made him feel the same way again.

4) They're not going to be giving up on Blaine Gabbert yet.

Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

The 2006 draft proved to be a pot of gold for the Texans, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

ESPN’s update on Peyton Manning’s search for his next team.

The Colts face some difficult challenges in rebuilding their roster, says Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Free agency is not only about the money, says Shahid Khan, according to Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

Some longtime Titans appear ready to hit the market tomorrow, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Shahid Khan has said he would have drafted Tim Tebow.

He doesn’t intend to tell general manager Gene Smith what to do, and he wouldn’t have drafted Tebow as high as 10th, which is where the Jaguars picked in 2010. But he said the chance to add a guy of Tebow’s magnitude, with the big local tie, is rare and he would have taken it.

So ...

Now that the Denver Broncos are a serious player for Peyton Manning, the presumption is Tebow would be on his way out if Manning was in. And it’s easy to connect the dots and presume Khan would urge his people to deal for Tebow, who surely wouldn’t cost a great deal given the limited market for him.

But no one with the Jaguars has indicated any interest in Tebow right now. No one who covers the Jaguars has reported they’d want him.

A new coaching staff is in place, and it’s looking to fix Blaine Gabbert and find a quality veteran backup to stand behind him.

Where would Tebow fit in that plan?

I don’t think he does.

While Khan said he would have drafted Tebow a couple years ago, he didn’t say he’d pounce on a chance to get him now. He’s got to trust the quarterback brain trust he’s put in place: coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterback coach Greg Olson.

I’m guessing they feel like they’ve got a project in rebuilding Gabbert and don’t need another in Tebow.

The Jaguars have cap money and big needs at receiver and defensive end. That's where Khan should be bold.

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

This mock draft from John McClain of the Houston Chronicle has the Texans taking Illinois outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus.

Andre Johnson has not renegotiated his contract at this time, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star appreciates how Peyton Manning dealt with incredible disappointments. The Star has a Manning page.

The next quarterback of the Colts will come in as a rookie starter, just like the last guy did, says Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union gives us the lowdown on the contract details for Rashean Mathis.

Starting at 12:45 p.m. ET, Ganguli will live blog Shahid Khan’s meeting with the Times-Union’s editorial board.

Tennessee Titans

The one obvious wild card with the Titans and Manning is owner Bud Adams, says David Climer of The Tennessean.

“College spread offenses are making it more difficult to judge how a lineman might perform in the NFL” and that affects how the Titans evaluate, says Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

Our chat suffered a technical interruption Thursday. Thought we still go a lot of good stuff in, I’ll pay back an extra 15 minutes sometime soon.

If you were there at the right time, you still got quality stuff like this:

Kyle (Ottawa, Ontario)

What do you do if your Jacksonville? Sign Vincent Jackson and draft Melvin Ingram or sign Mario Williams and draft Kendall Wright/Michael Floyd?

Paul Kuharsky

I LOVE Vincent Jackson. But if you can get Mario Williams, I think you have to go that direction. Very good question. You have the lead.

2ToneBlueBlood (murfreesboro tn)

I've seen you mention a few times that you think the Titans should pursue [Robert] Mathis or [Dwight] Freeney. Chances you think it will actually happen?

Paul Kuharsky

Freeney is under contract. If he's released they'd have to look. And they have to look at Mathis. They know they need a guy with special rush skills and that there are few of them. But if someone is giving them crazy money, it probably won't be Tennessee.

Awayne (Indy)

Colts go 3-4 what do you do with [Drake] Nevis, good potential but doesn't fit in 3-4 probably doesn't have much trade value?

Paul Kuharsky

Which is why it's a gradual shift, not a one-year overhaul.

Tyler (Duval)

Your thoughts on Gene Smith saying the Jags won't be as active in free agency this year as we were last year. Kind of upset me. I understand building through the draft but free agency is a very nice tool you can use.

Paul Kuharsky

Don't like it. Hope it's not a set up for a reveal that [new Jaguars owner Shahid] Khan won't spend all that money. Two big guys and a draft, that'd be fine.

Richard (Knoxville)

You can revoke a franchise tag up until July 15.

Paul Kuharsky

Not if he signs it.

For all that and much, much more, move directly past go and click right here.

The Jaguars won’t be as active in free agency this year as they were last year, according to general manager Gene Smith, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case. The team could go a long way toward solving at least two of its three primary issues -- receiver, end, cornerback -- in free agency and it has the money.

Smith: "I think [owner Shahid Khan] understands the philosophy is to build your team through the draft. I think most teams have figured that out. Where you don’t want to be is in pro free agency year in and year out. That’s not our philosophy. It’s to supplement the college draft."

Sure, the philosophy is to build through the draft. But the core players you need on your roster left from the drafts before Smith got control aren’t really around. So now you get those guy in free agency, the way the Jaguars got Paul Posluszny, Clint Session and Dawan Landry last year.

I hope the Jaguars don’t avoid free agency on principle, to prove they are centered on building though the draft. Mario Williams or Robert Mathis or Vincent Jackson or Brandon Carr -- better yet a couple of those guys -- can help transform the Jaguars.

Smith can have the semantics.

Emphasize that free agency is supplemental all you like.

Just so long as you’re not going forward thinking a good draft can do the bulk of the work to get Blaine Gabbert the weapons he needs and to give the Jaguars the special pass-rusher they covet.

Khan’s pushed his chips to the middle for the table and has said he’s all in.

All in means at least a couple big moves in free agency.

Houston Texans

Will the Texans be looking to draft the next Mario Williams? John McClain of the Houston Chronicle considers the question.

Robert Griffin III continues to grab the spotlight at the combine, this time with a blazing 40, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Michael Silver of Yahoo! chimes in on Jim Irsay versus Peyton Manning, offering a lot of texture.

Pierre Garcon turning down a contract was probably just an initial overture, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star in this mailbag.

The Colts' transition to a 3-4 will be complicated and require some new pieces, says Chappell.

Jacksonville Jaguars

We’re way late to this, but it’s a significant story: Shahid Khan talked tarps. And while he understands them at EverBank Field, he’d also like to get rid of them.

The solid coaching staff should help the Jaguars in recruiting free agents provided they are willing to pay, says Daniel Lago of the fan blog site Black & Teal.

Tennessee Titans

Like a lot of teams, the Titans are intrigued by South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram, says Jim Wyatt.

INDIANAPOLIS — With the NFL scouting combine under way, a look at some storylines that will develop at Lucas Oil Stadium and the meeting rooms in the Indiana Convention Center.

Hello Mr. Luck: Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was here briefly during Super Bowl week for a Gatorade promotion. But his podium session Friday will be viewed as the first of many times he will dissect his play at LOS, which everyone expects will become his home stadium when the Colts draft him first overall at the end of April.

Will the Jaguars fall in love with Quinton Coples? A year ago, virtually every analyst had the Jaguars taking defensive end Ryan Kerrigan in the first round. And that’s what they would have done if they had not jumped up with a trade to take Blaine Gabbert. Now it looks like the team will be paired with North Carolina defensive end Couples. Do the Jags develop the same affection for him that they did for Kerrigan a year ago?

Barron’s health: Mark Barron is recovering from double hernia surgery. Does the lack of field work here and at the Crimson Tide’s pro day affect his draft stock? And can that be a positive thing for the safety-needy Titans, who pick 20th and would have to consider him if he lasted that long? After Barron, the position doesn't offer a great deal in the draft.

Houston’s needs: The Texans are the least likely team in the division to add a significant outsider in free agency, because they have salary-cap issues. Their draft needs could be shaped by what happens with their own pending free agents. If Mario Williams leaves, they’ll need another outside linebacker for their 3-4. If Chris Myers gets away, center becomes an issue. But more than anyone in the division, the Texans should set up to be able to draft the best players they see. Being unpressured by a giant need is always somewhat of a relief.

Learning philosophies: Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have been doing a lot of behind-the-scenes work to get their house in order and lay the groundwork for their plans. We should start to learn more about their philosophy and intentions in the coming days. How far can they take a hybrid 3-4 in the first year? What will an offense under a new staff look like? And what kind of players here can make those schemes go?

The influence of Khan: Jacksonville general manager Gene Smith is now preparing for his first draft with a new boss. Shahid Khan has said he’s all in, so the Jaguars could do some significant spending in free agency before the draft arrives. If Smith was lacking in any resources before, such things should not be an issue now.

Webster’s influence: A year ago, Ruston Webster had a big influence over the Titans' draft, and it produced a very good looking class. Now Webster has been promoted to general manager. So this draft won’t only have his fingerprints on it, it’ll have his signature on it. He’s a highly respected personnel man who appears to be a steady, methodical guy who can find productive people who fit what Mike Munchak and his staff want to do.

Phillips’ opinions: In his first year as the Texans' defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips had a big influence on the Texans' draft. End J.J. Watt and outside linebacker Brooks Reed were giant contributors in their rookie seasons. The Texans showed great defensive depth, but can still stock up help at every level of the defense. Can Phillips help general manager Rick Smith and the front office tab a few more top-flight contributors?

Thin spots: Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. says he sees safety as the thinnest overall position and offensive line as less than stellar. That’s bad for Tennessee and Indianapolis as both teams need help at both spots. That’s good for Houston and Jacksonville, which did good work filling safety spots in 2011 and won’t have a lot of offensive line work, though the Jaguars' pass protection needs to improve.

Houston Texans

Becoming the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history is not Mario Williams’ goal as he approaches unrestricted free agency, writes John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Williams, 27, said he is completely healthy after a torn pectoral muscle ended his 2011 season in Week 5. He discussed how he feels about his impending free agency with Nick Scurfield of the team's website.

Indianapolis Colts

Colts owner Jim Irsay tells Dave Calabro of Eyewitness News that he is talking regularly with Peyton Manning about keeping the quarterback with the team. Irsay said not to expect the ugly divorce forecast in some reports.

The uncertainty swirling around the Colts apparently isn't being reflected in renewals by season ticket holders, writes Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Colts.com is taking a look at the most memorable playoff games in the team’s Indianapolis era.

Jacksonville Jaguars

One of the Jaguars' unrestricted free agents is kicker Josh Scobee, who is a candidate to receive the franchise tag, writes Alfie Crow of Big Cat Country.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell named Jaguars owner Shahid Khan to the league’s investment committee this week, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

According to Titans sources, Randy Moss handled what was believed to be his NFL swan song with dignity, writes Albert Breer of the NFL Network.

Reading the coverage…

Houston Texans

Why Peyton Manning won’t be playing for the Texans, from John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Without a discount, Mario Williams won’t be affordable for the Texans, says McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

Putting it all on Manning is a great PR move by Jim Irsay, but Bob Kravitz on the Indianapolis Star isn’t convinced it’s a great football move.

Mike Chappell of The Star with the paper’s rundown of its conversation with Irsay.

“Why at this stage of this crude, clumsy campaign should Peyton Manning trust Jim Irsay?” Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! examines the question.

Bill Polian thinks the public back-and-forth will help the two sides reach a resolution, says Alex Marvez of FoxSports.com.

Clark Judge of CBSSports.com thinks it was a smart move for Irsay to say what he did.

The 30-story Lombardi Trophy is gone, says Zak Keefer of the Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Shahid Khan continues the evolution of the Jaguars with the hiring of team president Mark Lamping, says Joe Wilhelm Jr. of the Daily Record.

Tennessee Titans

Defensive tackle Lamar Divens passed up the Bucs hoping the Titans would call. And Tennessee has signed the former Vanderbilt and Tennessee State player, says John Glennon.

Shahid Khan has beefed up his team’s front office, naming Mark Lamping team president, reports Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

Lamping was president of Major League Baseball’s St. Louis Cardinals for 13 years and will take over the non-football side of the Jaguars on Feb. 27. Since 2008 he’s been CEO of MetLife Stadium, home of the Jets and Giants. He's also worked for Anheuser-Busch.

Notes Ganguli: "The Jaguars have only had one other team president in the franchise's history. David Seldin held the position in the early years of the organization. He resigned in late 1997 to take a job with the organization that eventually bought the National Hockey League's New York Islanders, of which he then became president."

It appears to be a good sign for the Jaguars. Adding to the front office isn’t always a good thing. But in Jacksonville, the front office isn’t especially beefy.

Khan now has a top football executive in general manager Gene Smith and a top non-football executive in Lamping. Both will report to Khan in an organizational structure that’s used by many teams with great success.

Khan and Lamping were quoted in a news release that followed Ganguli's report:

Khan: “This is a very important and exciting development in the Rebirth of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mark will bring to the Jaguars and to the Jacksonville community a mix of sports and brand marketing, stadium management expertise and team front office leadership that is very difficult to find in one person. Mark’s resume speaks for itself and I am very grateful to the Giants and Jets for making it possible for the Jaguars to present Mark with a new challenge and the prospect of success here in Jacksonville.”

Lamping: “The Jacksonville Jaguars have vast potential, and I’m honored that Shad Khan is asking me to play a leadership role in reaching that potential. We have the opportunity to revitalize the franchise and build something special, memorable and hopefully historic for the league, our partners and especially Jaguars fans, who will be central to our mission. My wife Cheryl and I are ready to get started and excited to make Jacksonville our home.”

The Jaguars seek to put new ideas into play while marketing the team and selling tickets. Lamping is sure to bring some of those.

Reading the coverage …

Houston Texans

The Texans are talking to Karl Dorrell about their open quarterbacks coach job, says John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Indianapolis Colts

There is no easy way for the Colts and Peyton Manning to part ways, says Bob Kravitz.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A podcast of a recent conversation with Shahid Khan, courtesy of the Florida Times-Union.

Tennessee Titans

Titans cornerback Jason McCourty is tight with his twin brother Devin, who’s playing in the Super Bowl for the Patriots, writes Jim Wyatt.