AFC South: Steve Smith

Under pressure: Mike Thomas

April, 10, 2012
Apr 10
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Obviously no one on the Jaguars is under more pressure in 2012 than Blaine Gabbert.

But the quarterback is such an obvious choice, we will set him aside and go a different direction, to one of the people Gabbert or Chad Henne will need to be productive if the Jacksonville offense is going to make a significant jump.

Wide receiver Mike Thomas will have better coaching with Jerry Sullivan and a better supporting cast with Laurent Robinson, Taylor Price and, presumably, a high draft pick in the mix.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. has said Thomas can combine attributes of Wes Welker and Steve Smith.

But many Jaguars fans were left wondering about Thomas last season, when he fell off after he got a contract extension in early October. That three-year, $18 million deal included $9 million guaranteed. It eclipsed the three-year deal worth $13.35 million with $5 million guaranteed that Green Bay gave Jordy Nelson.

Thomas finished with 44 catches for 415 yards and a TD, and after the contract he didn’t have a game better than four catches for 36 yards. Nelson was obviously playing for a far better team with an MVP quarterback, but he had 68 catches for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Word in Jacksonville was that Thomas gave up late in the season, frustrated by a bad receivers coach in Johnny Cox and a struggling rookie quarterback in Gabbert. Cox was fired by interim head coach Mel Tucker and replaced by quarterbacks coach Mike Sheppard.

The Jaguars need Thomas to be the player they thought he was when they drafted him and then when they gave him the extension. He needs to be part of the solution for Gabbert, not an addition problem.

Thomas said recently he will benefit from being pushed by Sullivan, and if that helps, great.

But once the Jaguars signed him to a new deal, he graduated to an NFL veteran who shouldn’t necessarily need pushing. He’s a guy who should be motivated by simply living up to his contract and the faith his bosses have showed in him.

Will the additions amount to enough help? It’s too early to say and we don’t know who they will draft. But Thomas shouldn’t be the top option in the receiver group, and with Robinson in the fold Thomas should rank second at best.

Thomas is under pressure to produce.

Final Word: AFC South

October, 28, 2011
10/28/11
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 8:

Full effort: The Jaguars have struggled in the second half this season. To win at Reliant Stadium they’ll have to change the trend or jump ahead early. Jacksonville has not had its bye yet but still has the fewest second-half points in the league (29). It is 30th in point differential (minus-46) and 31st in yards per game (132.4). The defense and running game need to carry over what they did against Baltimore in the Monday night upset, while Blaine Gabbert has to do a lot more in the passing game.

[+] Enlarge
Arian Foster
Jim Brown/US PresswireArian Foster has stepped up for Houston in the passing game with 287 receiving yards over the past three games.
Foster and more Foster: Arian Foster was fantastic last week, topping 100 yards rushing and receiving and scoring three touchdowns. ESPN Stats & Information says he’s averaging 4.0 yards a carry over the last two seasons against defenses with eight men in the box. The Texans would be wise to continue their patient approach with ailing star receiver Andre Johnson (hamstring) and continue to rely heavily on Foster. With Johnson out, Foster’s been targeted 20 times, the most of any Houston player. Only Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Jimmy Graham and Steve Smith have more than Foster’s 287 receiving yards over the past three weeks.

Another run-game factor: Chris Johnson’s struggles running the ball for the Titans have been a giant story. We’ve talked extensively about his shortcomings and the potential for changes on the line. But tight ends have been big for him when things have gone well. Craig Stevens took over for Alge Crumpler as the team’s primary blocking tight end last season. But Stevens is dealing with a rib injury and there is only so much he can do, given the level of pain he has to deal with. It’s hard to heal when you’re constantly getting hit in the area in question. Watch him and see if he’s able to take people on and if he’s less effective later in the game.

Scoring defense woes: The Colts have allowed at least 23 points in all seven of their games this season. If they give up 23 to the Titans, they will become the second team in the last 30 seasons to allow at least 23 points in their first eight games of a season, joining the 2010 Texans. How can they slow the bleeding? Well, they’re giving up touchdowns 63.3 percent of the time opponents get inside the Colts' 20-yard line. There seems to be little to lose by playing more aggressively with tighter coverage close to their goal line. It can’t be much worse.

Double division action: With two head-to-head division matchups, the standings will tell us a lot come Sunday night. Houston can pull away, or allow the Jaguars to be right in the mix. The Titans can rebound and stay close to the top, or be part of Indianapolis’ first win and come out of things in third place. Labeling contenders and pretenders will be easier after we see how these two play out.

Final Word: AFC South

September, 23, 2011
9/23/11
1:30
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 3:

Watch the Jaguars' defense: It did not play badly in New York, it’s just that the Jets were given so many chances by the Jacksonville offense. Cam Newton is due for a comedown, and a defense that loaded up on veterans this offseason needs to see a payoff Sunday in Carolina. Put the spotlight on Paul Posluszny, Clint Session, Matt Roth, probable new starting safety Dwight Lowery and Drew Coleman. They were brought in to make this a good defense now, and if they can’t fare well against a rookie quarterback and a rebuilding team, it will be a major disappointment. The defense should play well enough to give Blaine Gabbert a chance to win his first start if he plays efficiently.

[+] Enlarge
Matt Schaub
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireThe Saints will look to bring pressure on Matt Schaub to slow down the Texans' air attack.
Blitz alert: The Texans are probably sick of hearing about how challenging the blitz packages of Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be. But they’ll also be reviewing the possibilities and reminding themselves of their schemes for handling blitzes. Matt Schaub is better when teams sit back and play coverages rather than coming after him. Still, although New Orleans wants to blitz and has the people to do it, the Saints are only 18th against the pass through two games. Although they collected eight sacks against the Packers and Bears, they’ve allowed an opponent passer rating of 95.6. There will be room for Schaub to succeed.

Quick and short: I expect the Colts will try to combat the Steelers' high pressure 3-4 front with quick, short passes, hoping for yards after the catch. Kerry Collins can certainly connect with Joseph Addai in such circumstances. He has done OK with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. The guy who needs to be a bigger part of things is Austin Collie, who was targeted 10 times a week ago but had only three receptions for 24 yards. To move it better, particularly in the red zone, where it was a struggle against the Browns, I think Collins-to-Collie has to become a bigger part of things.

Denver’s health: The Broncos were awfully banged up last week against Cincinnati when they managed to win without several key guys -- defensive end Elvis Dumervil, linebacker D.J. Williams, cornerback Champ Bailey, receiver Brandon Lloyd and running back Knowshon Moreno. At least some of those guys will return, and the Titans will face a better team than the one they have been watching on tape. Kyle Orton led Denver to a win at LP Field last season, so this is a trip the Broncos know they can make successful. Underrated Titans left tackle Michael Roos will be ready for Dumervil if the defensive end is back.

Making Newton uncomfortable: Newton has been very comfortable in his first two NFL games, even as Carolina has dropped both. For the Jaguars, making Newton do things he has not been doing well is a major goal. What might that entail? According to ESPN Stats & Info, Newton has been the best quarterback in the NFL throwing outside the numbers, where he has a passer rating of 109.5 and a Total QBR of 91.6. Take away receivers on the perimeter and make him look inside the numbers and you’ll find a much more average player: passer rating of 63, QBR of 39.2. The pressure is on Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox, particularly against Steve Smith, who is responsible for a good share of Newton’s numbers to the outside.

Polling place: Who must be stopped?

September, 21, 2011
9/21/11
11:26
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Our teams see some of the most productive skill players in the league this weekend. To notch a win, the Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans will have to slow some formidable people.

SportsNation

Who's the key player an AFC South team needs to stop in order to win Sunday?

  •  
    15%
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    42%
  •  
    37%
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    6%

Discuss (Total votes: 2,685)

Indianapolis hosts the Steelers. Pittsburgh receiver Mike Wallace has been excellent so far. His 16 receptions are the second most in the NFL. He’s tied for fourth in yardage with 233 and his three third-down catches have averaged 22.7 yards.

Jacksonville will need to limit the Cam Newton-to-Steve Smith connection that has torched the Panthers’ first two opponents. Smith had 178 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the loss at Arizona, the biggest receiving yardage day so far in the NFL. And he followed that up with 156 receiving yards against Green Bay.

Houston faces the Saints, who are loaded with weapons. You won’t find Darren Sproles on the list of the league’s leading running backs. He’s only got six carries for 24 yards. We need to look at receiving leaders to find his big impact. He’s tied for third in the league in receptions with 13 catches, and is a threat on every play. His seven third-down catches are the most in the league.

Tennessee hosts Denver, and the Broncos have not shown themselves to have an especially dangerous weapon so far. Their most productive threat right now might not be on offense, but on special teams. But Eric Decker has two receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown and ranks as the second-leading punt return man in the league with a 25.6-yard average. He's slated to start at receiver at LP Field on Sunday.

Who's the guy that must be stopped above the others in order for his team to win?

Chime in on the poll.
Our periodic look at the best and worst draft picks by position for each team moves to cornerback. We’re looking at draft results since realignment in 2002, since that’s when the Texans came into existence and gives us the most level comparison…

Houston Texans

Best: Dunta Robinson, taken 10th overall in 2004, lived up to his first-round pick status for a good segment of his career. He tops three categories in the team’s record books, with six picks as a rookie, 13 in his career and two seasons leading the team in interceptions. I understood not paying him big bucks and allowing him to leave as a free agent before the 2010 season. But the Texans failed to sufficiently replace him and had a brutal pass defense last season.

Worst: Fred Bennett (fourth-rounder in 2007) had some well-documented struggles and Antwaun Molden (third in 2008) has never lived up to his initial training camp, but Vontez Davis wins the honor here. A sixth-rounder from 2004, he also got a look from Chicago and time on the practice squads in Indianapolis and Pittsburgh but never played a game in the NFL. (Nevertheless, this autographed picture of him as a Texans still goes for $15.99.)

Indianapolis Colts

Best: Perhaps it’s projecting a bit, because his best football is surely ahead of him, but Jerraud Powers was an excellent find out of Auburn in the third round in 2009. He was the team’s best cornerback last season before suffering a season-ending right forearm injury and looks to be the kind of piece that continues to sustain the franchise -- a real find outside of the first couple rounds.

Worst: Daymeion Hughes was a third-round pick out of Cal in 2007 who later became known as Dante Hughes. Under either name, he never proved he could cover effectively for Indianapolis. He played in 24 games in two seasons and couldn’t stick beyond that. He’s been with San Diego the past two seasons.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best: Rashean Mathis was a little known guy coming out of Bethune-Cookman in 2003. But the Jaguars spent a second-round pick on him and got a starter from Day 1. He has started every game he’s played, and has missed just a dozen games in eight seasons. In the past two years, a new regime swept out a lot of veteran guys. But Mathis has remained a fixture.

Worst: Scott Starks was a third-round choice out of Wisconsin in 2005 who never really qualified as more than a nickelback and hardly provided what Jaguars with an answer in the secondary. He lasted five seasons and played in 54 games, but started only one and recorded only two interceptions. Sure you’d like the Jaguars to have found a gem out of Steve Smith (seventh-rounder in 2002), Chris Roberson (seventh, 2005) and Dee Webb (seventh, 2006) but expectations for all of them paled in comparison to a third-rounder like Starks.

Tennessee Titans

Best: The Titans did much to bail themselves out of failed first-round picks at the position like Pacman Jones and Andre Woolfolk by hitting on Cortland Finnegan out of Samford in the seventh round in 2006. While he has dropped off since an All-Pro 2008, he still ranks as a ridiculously good find with the 215th pick.

Worst: The Titans needed Woolfolk to become a fixture in the secondary when they spent the 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft on him. But he never showed any consistency and ultimately qualified as a bust, with just 11 starts and three interceptions in four years. He failed to emerge as a player who ranked ahead of a seventh-rounder like Reynaldo Hill.

Scouts Inc: Ranking David Garrard's targets

July, 19, 2010
7/19/10
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Zach Miller and Mike ThomasGetty Images, US PresswireExpectations are high for second-year players Zach Miller, left, and Mike Thomas.
After Mike Sims-Walker and Maurice Jones-Drew, who are Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback David Garrard’s prime pass-receiving options and how do they rank?

I am very high on the Jaguars’ supporting cast of pass-catchers, even though it’s green.

Jarett Dillard is a very solid all-around young wideout who doesn’t excel in any specific area but isn’t deficient in any department, either. He could survive in this league for a long time. Along those lines, Marcedes Lewis is an underrated player. He is an exceptional blocker. But for the sake of this discussion, Lewis is just a slow-twitch target with good hands and a big body who can provide a safety blanket or dump-down option not all that far from the line of scrimmage. While he is running out of chances, receiver Troy Williamson also could surprise as a down-the-field option for the strong-armed Garrard.

Granted, that doesn’t sound like much to be excited about, but Jacksonville has two receivers who are entering their second seasons whom I expect to step up in a huge way in 2010: Mike Thomas and Zach Miller.

Miller, a second-year prospect, is an exceptional complement to the plodding Lewis at the tight end position. Miller -- not to be confused with the Oakland Raiders tight end of the same name -- can run. Jacksonville would be wise to use a lot more two-tight end sets, often detaching Miller from the formation and using him from a variety of spots on the field.

Miller is adjusting to this game at its highest level after playing quarterback at Nebraska-Omaha. He is a superb athlete for a tight end. He also did flash some productive outings to finish up his 2009 rookie season. Miller can create mismatches. He can be a playmaker in any offense.

But Thomas is my guy. I really like this second-year wide receiver. A four-year starter for the University of Arizona, Thomas was ultraproductive in the Pac-10. At 5-foot-8 and 198 pounds, he’s not the biggest guy around. However, Thomas understands how to play the position and make plays.

Despite his size, he is physical and very aggressive. I hesitate to make this comparison, but Thomas has a lot of the same qualities as the Carolina PanthersSteve Smith. Don’t be surprised when you see more and more from Thomas that reminds you of Smith, who I still consider an elite wideout in this league. I am not exaggerating. Thomas is the real deal and he is capable of salvaging this passing game.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.
AFC South notes from ESPN Stats & Information’s targets report from the end of the regular season:

  • Andre Johnson was the most-targeted player in the league with 169 passes thrown his direction, 10 more than went to Roddy White. Reggie Wayne was seventh (149).
  • Johnson was the lone player from the division in the top 10 players targeted on third down -- he caught 21 of the 39 passes aimed at him.
  • Johnson tied for fifth with 39 fourth-quarter targets.
  • Only Brandon Marshall (25) was targeted more in the red zone. Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice all had 23 balls thrown their way from inside the 20. Wayne was eighth with 19.
  • Wayne was tied for fifth in times targeted in the red zone in the fourth quarter with seven.
  • Johnson was tied with Calvin Johnson for second with 51 targets on balls throw 15 yards or more in the air. Vincent Jackson was first with 57. But Andre Johnson’s 30.4-yard average on those balls was best of the three.
  • Kevin Walter was first in catch percentage on balls thrown 15 or more yards downfield (72.2 percent) while Kenny Britt ranked sixth (59.1 percent) and Johnson eighth (56.9).
  • Dallas Clark was targeted the most among NFL tight ends, edging Tony Gonzalez 131 to 130.
  • Chris Johnson (70), Maurice Jones-Drew (69) and Joseph Addai (63) rank fifth, sixth, and ninth, respectively, among the most-targeted running backs.
  • Walter ranked second (minimum 70 targets) with a 74.6 catch percentage, Austin Collie 10th at 67.4, Wayne 11th at 67.1.
  • Nate Washington, Pierre Garcon and Carolina’s Steve Smith shared the 17th-lowest catch percentage (minimum 70 targets) at 51.6 percent.
  • Washington ranked ninth worst in yards per target (minimum 70 targets) at 6.3.
  • Johnson was tied for ninth with 53 targets when a defense rushed the passer with five or more defenders. He averaged 15.5 yards on those chances, second highest among the top 10.

AFC South drops, target report

November, 12, 2009
11/12/09
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Ten people who are part of the ESPN Stats & Information machine in Bristol, Conn. watch every pass thrown in the NFL to break them down in every way imaginable. Then they send the breakdowns to my e-mail box.

What a life I lead, huh?

Here’s my AFC South-centric review of their excellent review.

Sure hands are a major feature of the division which boasts three of the top five teams in the fewest drops by team category.
Fewest drops by team (percentage of passes)
Team Attempts Drops Drop pct.
Texans 313 7 2.2
Broncos 258 8 3.1
Falcons 236 8 3.4
Jaguars 258 9 3.5
Colts 313 11 3.5
>> League average: 5.5%

Major contributions to that excellent standing by Houston and Jacksonville come from Owen Daniels (zero drops in 58 targeted chances), Steve Slaton (40) and Mike Sims-Walker (51).

Among wide receivers with at least 25 times targeted, Kevin Walter ranks fourth with a 77.1 percent catch rate and Sims-Walker is 12th at 70.6 percent. The league average is 58.6 percent.

On the other end of the spectrum, despite a much better showing in San Francisco last week, Justin Gage 10th worst among wide receivers targeted at least 25 times with a 44.9 percent catch rate.

Onward, beyond drops…
  • Andre Johnson is the NFL’s most targeted receiver, with Matt Schaub looking to him 90 times. The Giants Steve Smith is second (87) while Reggie Wayne is tied with Larry Fitzgerald for third (86). Dallas Clark is seventh (72)
  • Nobody from the division rates in the top six for targets in the fourth quarter and overtime.
  • Nate Washington is tied for fifth in times targeted in the red zone with 10, and he’s caught nine for four touchdowns.
  • Wayne is tied for second (28) and Johnson is tied for sixth (24) in times targeted by passes thrown 15-yards or more downfield.
  • For more on Wayne and Randy Moss as we head towards the New England-Indianapolis matchup, please see this sister post.
  • Clark is the league’s most-targeted tight end with 60 catches on 72 chances. Daniels, done for the season with a knee injury, is fifth on the list with 58 targets.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew is the league’s third most-targeted running back (44) behind Ray Rice and Tim Hightower. Joseph Addai is fifth (41) and Slaton is sixth (39).
  • Jacoby Jones has three touchdowns in 17 times targeted, a 17.6 percent mark that’s 10th in the NFL but well above the league average of 4.35 percent.
  • No AFC South player ranks in the top six in drops or in the top eight for drop percentage among receivers targeted at least 25 times.
Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky

Fresh off a giant rushing day in a loss to Tennessee, Maurice Jones-Drew graciously donated 20 minutes to the AFC South Blog to chat about the latest version edition of ESPN.com’s Power Rankings.
Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE
Maurice Jones-Drew weighed in with an opinion on every team in the league.

He wound up offering more of a team-by-team commentary on the league than on the rankings, which is just fine with us.

So here is a sampling of his thoughts:

"The Saints and Colts both struggled this week, I just don’t know how long those guys can last with those high-powered offenses. It seems like New Orleans, at least, has to have a shootout every week to win, you know. So I don’t know how long that’s going to last. The Colts survived a scare. So call them the Houdinis, they find a way to win."

"Minnesota I think is one of the best balanced teams with the running game, passing game, great defense and special teams. They’re firing on all cylinders right now."

"Denver at four, I don’t know how long they are going to last with just throwing the ball all the time. You’ve got to have a balanced offense in this league, and to run the ball just 10 times [actually 19] against the Ravens was not good."

"New England’s just sneaky, I haven’t heard too much about them yet. They ranked No. 5, so you all have your eye on them."

"Cincinnati is revived, new heart."

"Pittsburgh, great defense."

"Dallas was like on the bottom half of the league last week or two weeks ago, weren’t they? [They were 19 just two weeks ago, I tell him.] I just remember everyone saying Dallas is horrible, they aren’t going to be any good. Now all of a sudden they are up there. Nineteen two weeks ago, now eight? That’s a question mark how guys can jump up that far, this is not the BCS."

"I like Philadelphia. Donovan McNabb has multiple weapons, defense is playing solid right now. They are an opportunistic team."

"Baltimore is catching their stride right now which is going to be pretty dangerous for some people. They can run, they can throw, they play great defense, their special teams are starting to come on and their head coach is a special teams guy. I like them, I think they are going to be a good team and later on they’ll be higher than 10."

"Atlanta is going to be a team that sneaks up on people to. I think they should be a little bit higher. They lost their last two, but before that they were like No. 6 or something, weren’t they? They were high up there. I just don’t know how teams drop in this week-by-week deal."

"The Packers can’t beat the Vikings. They can’t win their division it seems like."

"Cardinals live by the pass die by the pass. It’s a risky way, but if that’s what you’re going to be, know who you are."

"Texans at 14, oh man. I don’t know…"

Blogger break in: Jones-Drew gets to the security gate of his neighborhood. “Hello,” he says. “Monroe, right?” the woman asks him. “No, Jones-Drew,” he says politely. “I’m sorry,” she says. Then turning back to me on the phone: “That’s crazy, my own neighborhood doesn’t even know me. I tell you what, I’ve still got a long way to go.”

"...Texans, Matt Schaub was struggling and Ryan Moats steps up big for them in that Buffalo Bills game. I have Matt Schaub on my fantasy team and he did not play well for me."

"The Giants were the No. 1 team probably three weeks ago and they lost three now, I guess they are on a skid. Now 15, they will probably be down where they Jaguars are next."

"San Diego? Slow start. They always start slow and they always pick it up towards the middle and the end of the season. So it’s kind of surprising, people have to realize that’s how they play the majority of the time. I think they will be higher."

"I don’t know about the Bears. They’re kind of inconsistent. Matt Forte, he’s on my fantasy team, I’m glad he had a big week against Cleveland. They are just inconsistent. I think now, 16, 17 on down you’re going to get to the teams that are just inconsistent."

"Injuries are what make the Jets so low at 18, to lose Kris Jenkins is a big hit for them on the defensive side. And then you lose Leon Washington, your kickoff returner and your backup running back, one of the most explosive guys in the league. That’s tough."

"I think the 49ers are catching their stride. They played Houston tough and almost beat Houston, they came back on them. They played Indy incredibly tough with the Joseph Addai touchdown. Whenever you can hold Peyton Manning with no touchdowns, it’s real big."

"Miami, I think they are undefeated in divisional play, right? You win your division you get to the playoffs. They are the head of their division but that can beat anyone else. Divisional bullies?"

"Jaguars at 21? That’s bull. We should be No. 1. [I chime in that I understand why he says so, but he knows how it sounds to people, right?] "If I didn’t say that, it wouldn’t be right. Everyone should say that about themselves. If you don’t believe in yourself, who will?"

"Buffalo, injuries. They’d be higher if they didn’t have as many injuries."

"Carolina, give the ball to Steve Smith. Give him the rock, feed him. You have a running game, but no Steve Smith. That’s why they are ranked that low."

"Seattle: listen to Houshmandzadeh."

"Washington, 25th, they’re struggling. What Haynesworth said: When they want to win, they will."

"The Titans beat the Jaguars."

"Oakland: Off the field issues."

"Kansas City: Off the field issues."

"The Lions got their first victory."

"I think St. Louis should be ranked higher than Detroit, they should flip-flop spots 29 and 30. The Rams beat them didn’t they? If two teams are evenly matched like that, usually the team that beat the other one should be right ahead of them."

"Cleveland: internal bleeding. They are firing everybody in Cleveland right now. They just traded Braylon Edwards, now you’re going to fire your GM. Who’s next?"

"Tampa Bay? [Expletive]! I know how they feel, like anything and everything you do isn’t right. You can do all the hard work in the world and it still doesn’t pay off."

"I think you guys did pretty good. Denver I understand they are high up there, they beat New England which was a big win. Other than that, most of their wins were against opponents that aren’t up there. …I obviously think we’re way too low, we beat Houston. I think Houston could be a little bit higher. At 5-3 they are a little tougher than what people think."

"Fantasy-wise, I need Antonio Gates to step up. I need Philip Rivers to throw the ball to Antonio Gates more. We play two quarterbacks, I have Matt Cassel but I hope he does bad [in Jacksonville Sunday]. I might just play one quarterback."
 
  Kim Klement/US Presswire
  Florida receiver Percy Harvin could be a first-round pick for the Titans or Colts.
Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky

Is Percy Harvin a multipurpose receiver who will automatically make an NFL offense more dynamic? Or is he an inexperienced route runner who will have a hard time when a team needs him to fill a somewhat conventional role?

That's the debate we can expect to hear for the next two months on the draft value of the Florida wideout, who could be in play in the late first round when two AFC South teams in need of a receiver -- the Colts and the Titans -- make their first picks.

Percy Harvin: Did You Know?
A look at Percy Harvin from Ryan McCrystal of ESPN Research:

• Of the 228 Division I players with at least 100 touches, Harvin was one of eight to average 10-plus yards per touch. Harvin's 11.9 yards per touch ranked fourth in D-I and first among BCS conference players. He and Jeremy Maclin were the only BCS conference players in double digits.

• The NFL's elite receivers such as Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald are serious threats in the red zone, while Harvin was a virtual non-factor inside the 20 in college.

• In his final year at Florida, Harvin had eight runs and 11 catches of 20 yards or more with seven TDs, including: Three runs and five catches of 30 yards or more with four TDs and three runs and three catches of 40 yards or more with three TDs. 


Not in
red zone
Red zone
Rec 37 3
Rec TD 5 2
Rec Yds 618 26
"I think there are two issues with him," said NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock, who rates Harvin as a first-rounder but offered the negative outlook. "I think, No. 1, are the durability issues. You're talking about a longer season and whether or not he can hold up. And No. 2 I think is all about usage. Is he Reggie Bush? Can he run the wide receiver route tree? At the University of Florida he really didn't have to run the type of NFL routes he's going to have to run... What kind of route runner is he? We don't know yet, that's part of the problem."

"He's a versatile player," one scout from the AFC South said, offering the positive outlook. "In those spread-type offenses instead of being polished route runners, they become versatile type players. Because you're a part-time running back, part-time screen guy, part-time reverse guy. You do a number of different things as well as being a receiver... The thing you have to keep going back to is he makes a lot of plays -- whether it's screens, reverses, catching the ball across the middle of the field and taking off. Somehow you've got to find players like that and find a position for them."

Come April 25, the Colts will be looking to restock at the start of the post-Marvin Harrison era and the Titans will need to consider, as always, a dynamic receiver who can stretch the field.

The case for Harvin in Indianapolis is that he'd be a dynamic and explosive weapon for Peyton Manning. But many insiders project him primarily as a slot guy. While Anthony Gonzalez played enough outside last season, he's more of a slot guy, too. Minus Harrison, that's not the Colts' big need at receiver.

A guy like North Carolina's Hakeem Nicks is more polished, more of an outside guy and could be more ready to step right in and produce.

The Titans saw the sort of major impact vibrant running back Chris Johnson had for their offense as they went 13-3 last season. Would a wideout cut from similar cloth give them a dynamic duo? Or, if they broke with their long tradition of avoiding receivers in the first round, would they be better served with Kenny Britt of Rutgers, Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland or Nicks?

Like Harvin, those three are leaving college early. The Titans should at least be looking to upgrade at the No. 2 spot that was held by Justin McCareins when healthy. But, despite the deficiencies in their pass game, the team is loathe to play rookie receivers much. The top six-rated receivers in this draft -- Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin, who are expected to be gone early, Harvin, Heyward-Bey, Nicks and Britt -- didn't play full college careers. If one of them lands in Tennessee, the team is likely to preach patience. The Titans might have the pick spend more time on the bench than on the field.

ESPN had Harvin at 4.41 in the 40, while the NFL.com stopwatch had 4.37 at the combine. His speed wasn't going to be a question. He discussed durability in his podium talk where he also shrugged off the route-running questions, pledging to answer them for all at his March 18th pro day at Florida.

"I ran a lot of digs and posts, but as the season went on I didn't get to run a lot of them," he said. "A lot of our games were blowouts or they needed me to run the ball [as a back]. I've done it many times in practice so I don't think it'll be hard transition for me. I'm looking forward to my pro day, to show the coaches I can do it."

He didn't dismiss comparisons to Bush while saying he is this draft's most explosive player.

Florida WR Selected in First 2 Rounds Since 2000
Florida receivers have hardly been successful in the NFL in recent years, regardless of whether they played under Steve Spurrier, Ron Zook or Urban Meyer.
Year Receiver Round Team
2006 Chad Jackson 2nd Patriots
2003 Taylor Jacobs 2nd Redskins
2002 Jabar Gaffney 2nd Texans
2002 Reche Caldwell 2nd Chargers
2000 Travis Taylor 1st Ravens
"Both of us are used to create mismatches on the other team," he said. "You get the ball and can cut back across the field. A lot of the similarities are because we're both explosive on the open field."

Willing to talk about Bush, Harvin also boldly invoked the name of Carolina Panthers star Steve Smith. Perhaps he turns out to be as physical and tough as Smith, an explosive playmaker who's also shown those qualities, but Smith hasn't jumped to mind when I've seen Harvin play for the Gators.

"I'm a little bigger than him, but just as explosive in the open field and have a knack to make big plays," said Harvin.

The scout said it's easier to evaluate a running back who can do a lot of receiver work as opposed to a receiver who can do a lot of running back stuff. That could hurt Harvin, but it also could help ensure he lands with a team that has ideas for how to use him -- something that's taken a few years to happen in New Orleans with Bush.

For a front office that looks for players who fit in predictable boxes, Harvin is unlikely to be the guy. In Florida's offense, he excelled more often running to spots than following the sort of route tree an NFL team will present.

"At the end of the day, there are going to be a group of NFL teams that look at him and say, 'I don't care, we'll find a way to get him touches, we'll find a way to get the ball in his hands, he's just so explosive we have to have him,'" Mayock said. "I think I've got him No. 3 right now [among wide receivers] as a first-round pick. I like him. But I think there are going to be some teams that really like him and some that will say, 'I'm not sure what to do with him.'"

"If you're scared off, I don't think you're doing your work on a player like that," the scout said. "I don't think you can be scared of a player that makes plays and has great speed and scores touchdowns."

Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky

With a tremendous postseason performance that's put such a focus on Larry Fitzgerald, Titans fans are seeing the kind of dynamic wide receiver performance they've pined for since the team moved to Tennessee in 1997.

Fitzgerald, or even Anquan Boldin, the Arizona Cardinals' second receiver who was upset by his lack of playing time in the NFC Championship Game, could transform the Titans' offense, adding the playmaking threat to the receiving corps that would so nicely complement the speed out of the backfield with Chris Johnson.

All of which got me thinking broadly about the AFC South and a different sort of plus-one system.

I'm not big on the imaginary, but it seems an appropriate hot-stove question: If each team in the division could add any one player from elsewhere in the league, who would it be and what could he do for his new team?

While we'll discuss more than one position for other teams, and perhaps you can sway me here, but it seems the Titans' conversation should be about receivers.

Does Andre Johnson fit their physical mold best? Does Fitzgerald's youth, ridiculous athleticism and ability to adjust to jump balls make him too good to resist for a team with uncertainty at quarterback in the coming years? Are they both better options than Steve Smith, who is smaller and older?

I invite you to chime in -- with comments here or notes to the mailbag. After I see what you have to say, I will make a plus-one selection for the Titans by week's end.

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