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Our periodic look at the best and worst draft pick by position for each team begins with running back. We’ll look at draft results since realignment in 2002, since that’s when the Texans came into existence and gives us the most level comparison.

Houston Texans

Best: Arian Foster is the best guy they’ve had, but he was undrafted so he doesn’t qualify. It’s not a great list, but the best of the lot was Domanick Davis, who became Domanick Williams, a fourth-rounder in 2003. (I initially had those names flipped, sorry.) In three seasons, he averaged 4.1 yards a carry and scored 28 touchdowns. That’s pretty solid production for a back during a three-year stretch when his team was 14-34.

Worst: Lots of options here. I remember thinking that 2002 fourth-rounder Jonathan Wells was simply not an NFL back. Vernand Morency (2005, third), Wali Lundy (2006, sixth) and Tony Hollings (2003, second in the supplemental draft) were also not good. The Texans got just one season plus one game out of Morency, who couldn’t get ahead of Ron Dayne, Lundy or Samkon Gado. But the least value came from Hollings, who earned just 49 carries in three seasons. Pro Football Reference says his weighted career average ranks him 10,562nd since 1950.

Indianapolis Colts

Best: He takes a lot of grief because he’s not necessarily a big producer for fantasy leagues, but Joseph Addai (2006, first) is very effective at doing what’s asked when he’s healthy. He’s got a darting style that’s suited for the team, he’s a great pass-catcher and he’s very reliable in protecting Peyton Manning.

Worst: The team spent late picks on backs in 2002 (Brian Allen), 2005 (Anthony Davis) and 2006 (T.J. Rushing) and none of them did much. Hard to grade hard on such low picks, but it’s too early to talk Donald Brown (2009 first-rounder) here. Allen had one kick return in 2003 and Davis didn’t make the team. We’ll declare it a tie, acknowledging a hit with either would have qualified as a nice surprise.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best: Maurice Jones-Drew is the centerpiece of the team and was a steal in the second round (60th overall) of the 2006 draft. The Jaguars passed on him at No. 28 in the first round, when they took tight end Marcedes Lewis. MJD qualifies as the face of the franchise.

Worst: LaBrandon Toefield and Alvin Pearman made contributions on a team that was in pretty good shape at the position with Fred Taylor and then Jones-Drew. So while it’s unfair to hit them for a seventh-rounder from 2008, it also means they’ve done pretty well. Three years into his career, Chauncey Washington finished 2010 on the practice squad of the St. Louis Rams.

Tennessee Titans

Best: You’d expect the 24th overall pick to be here and Chris Johnson certainly is the selection. He’s coming off a 1,364-yard, 12-TD season that was largely regarded as a failure because he’d set the bar so high with his 2,006-yard rushing season in 2009. He’s as fast as or faster than any running back in the league.

Worst: The Titans fell in love with Chris Henry at the combine and let his measurable outweigh his unspectacular performance at Arizona. The second-round pick the team spent on Henry in 2007 amounted to a waste. The Titans kept him for three seasons to try to justify spending the 50th overall pick on him, which was longer than the needed to know he was a strikeout. He played in just 10 games.

The Indianapolis Colts began restocking their secondary with a third-round selection of USC cornerback Kevin Thomas, who could rank as high as fourth at corner after a purge of the guys at the tail end of the group.

Indy nabbed Thomas with the 94th pick overall, right in the same range it found Jerraud Powers last season. Powers stepped in when injuries cut into the availability of Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden last year and was a key piece in a Super Bowl run.

With Jackson, Tim Jennings, T.J. Rushing and Aaron Francisco gone from the 2009 team, Thomas should get a chance to show he can function in the defensive backfield if one of the Colts top three -- Hayden, Powers or Jacob Lacey -- goes down.

Some write-ups like Thomas’s long arms, athleticism and instincts, while others see him as an underachiever lacking polish. A tough training camp working against Peyton Manning and a stacked crew of receivers could certainly help accelerate the growth process.

The Titans’ 2009 search for a returner was a failure. In recent years, the Colts haven’t shown a lot of interest in finding a dynamic one.

Universal thinking is each team can solve the issue in the upcoming draft, though it would take a change in Indianapolis' approach for the Colts to focus on it.

So what does it take to unearth a quality return man?

I set out this week to address this from several angles, and I’m going to let some smart people with informative takes carry the day.

So without further ado…

Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh has a big background in special teams.

What’s he want to see out of a prospective returner?

"Punt and kickoff return are completely different. In punt return, the bottom line is he’s got to be a natural catcher. So catching a punt is a unique thing. If they can’t catch, you can forget about it. Kick return is a little easier to catch, but some of these guys struggle to catch kicks. To me, a kick returner has to be a north-south runner. He’s got to have a burst of acceleration and/or power, and he’s got to have vision. It’s usually more of a running back-type guy who can read the hole and cut off blocks. Punt return is a guy that can catch the ball naturally, has great body control and he can do two things at once. He’s got to be able to catch the ball and feel the pressure around him. Make the guy miss, whether it’s make or miss with the body control to slip through there, or be able to change speed and change angles."

Does he need to see a college player do that or can he project it?

"It’s a good question. You’d rather see it because then you know. But if you don’t see it, you can project it. But you’ve got to go work the guy out and see if he can catch. So you can take a guy that maybe wasn’t a college punt returner, and maybe turn him into a pro punt returner. Maybe you find out that he has been catching punts every day but they didn’t put him back there because he was their primary receiver or whatever. It’s pretty rare to see a great pro punt returner who wasn’t a pretty good college punt returner."

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. says he wants to see courage and toughness in a return man:

"It’s funny. When looking/reading prospect reports on draft prospects this time of year, many scouts rightfully put something along the lines of, 'Also can contribute as a return man' as part of a young man's scouting report. That is all well and good, but like kickers and punters, is he one of the best 32 (or so) at this skill in the world? It is not for the faint of heart and while speed, elusiveness and vision are all paramount for either punt or kickoff returns, I think guts/fearlessness/toughness is maybe the most important. If you are going to keep a pure returner, he had better be outstanding-by NFL standards. Otherwise, he has to do something else. Be the fourth cornerback or wide receiver or be a core special teams player on coverage teams."

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information took a look at some of the best returners in league history and some of the most productive guys in recent history to see if there were any commonalities:

"The one 'similarity' of the best returner historically (Brian Mitchell) and the best return man in 2009 (Joshua Cribbs) is that they were both college QBs.

"The other common denominator is that of the players below, only three were defensive backs in college: Darrien Gordon, Devin Hester, Deion Sanders.

"Another common denominator (with the exception of the 6-foot-1 Cribbs) is that they are all under six feet tall."

Finally, Kevin Weidl of Scouts Inc. was kind enough to run through the best return prospects in the draft:

Return Specialists

These guys will either be drafted or signed as free agents strictly for their return skills. Due to lack of size, they will need a creative offensive coordinator to contribute offensively at the next level.

Brandon Banks, Kansas State (5-7, 159) -- Banks is the top pure returner in this years’ class. He possesses a nice combination of vision, quickness, speed and elusiveness to consistently set offenses up with favorable field position.

Brandon James, Florida (5-6, 176) -- James possesses great vision to locate and the short-area burst to quickly get through first line of defense. He also displays a quick stop and start and is very reliable tracking and fielding punts. Questionable overall long speed to outrun defenders when they have favorable angle in pursuit.

Trindon Holliday, LSU (5-5, 172) -- World-class track speed, and has the ability to exploit even the slimmest of creases. He is shifty but lacks elite elusiveness to make defenders miss in confined areas.

Other prospects that bring added value as returners (sorted by position);

Running backs

C.J. Spiller, Clemson -- The most dynamic and versatile offensive weapon in this year’s class. Explosive short-area burst and elite top-end and long speed give him ability to rip off a big gain at any point in both phases of the return game.

Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss -- McCluster is pint sized (5-8) but shows great versatility and quickness to contribute as a change-of-pace back and wide receiver at the next level. Elite open-field capabilities make him dangerous as a punt returner.

Other RBs with returning experience: Joe McKnight, USC; Ben Tate, Auburn; Andre Dixon, UConn

Cornerbacks

Javier Arenas, Alabama -- Instinctive and tough football player who should step in and contribute immediately as a sub-package nickel back. Despite lack of elite top-end speed, Arenas is one of the more effective returners in this year’s class. I love his vision, balance and quick stop and start as a returner.

Kyle Wilson, Boise State -- Physical press corner who shows great anticipation and ball skills out on an island. Wilson brings added value as a reliable punt returner with good speed and open-field capabilities.

Devin McCourty, Rutgers -- Not many holes in McCourty as a cornerback. Easy change of direction, strong overall ball skills, plays bigger than size indicates and not afraid to get jersey dirty in run support. McCourty is one of the most versatile special teams prospect in this year's class, an effective kick returner and outstanding gunner with punt coverage.

Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, IUP -- Possesses a nice combination of size, speed and ball skills teams covet as either a press corner or free safety at the next level. Owusu-Ansahis a strong open-field runner who has experience as both a kickoff and punt returner.

Other cornerbacks with returning experience: Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State; Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal; Walter Thurmond, Oregon; Dennis Rogan, Tennessee

Wide receivers

Golden Tate, Notre Dame -- Aggressive, savvy and sure-handed and should develop into at least a strong No. 3 WR at the next level. Reliable punt returner with good vision, balance and deceiving top-end speed.

Damian Williams, USC -- Smooth athlete and one of the most polished route runners in this year’s receiver class. Despite lack of top-end speed, Williams will consistently field punts cleanly and has enough elusiveness to pick up positive yardage.

Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati -- Instinctive and passionate playmaker on the field who should develop into a solid No. 3 WR. By no means a burner, but a difference-maker as a returner in both phases as he shows elite body control and never slows down out of cuts.

Jacoby Ford, Clemson -- World class track speed and should be a nice vertical threat at the next level. Elite top-end speed gives him ability to hit the home run at any point as both a kick and punt returner.

Antonio Brown, Central Michigan -- Quicker than fast, and should contribute working out of the slot at the next level. Brown brings added value as both a kick and punt returner with his open field capabilities and overall elusiveness.

Other receivers with returning experience: Jordan Shipley, Texas; Emmanuel Sanders, SMU; Andre Roberts, Citadel; David Reed, Utah

And a bonus link to a Pro Football Weekly story on the best special teamers in the draft, including three return specialists.

Final thoughts from me having taken all this in: Things always get twisted up with return guys. If the Colts or Titans draft a guy they intend to be a contributor as a cornerback or running back or receiver, there is a point at which they won't want to overload them with the extra job or expose them to injury on special teams. How long would we see Spiller or Wilson or McCourty or Tate be a special teamer? First-round receiver Kenny Britt returned kicks for the Titans late last season, but the team can't want him there much longer.

So I'd like to see both teams commit a pick to a return specialist, dedicating a roster spot to him.

Consistent fielding of punts and kicks was an issue for the Titans last year, and it's time for the team to actually have bigger expectations for its returner than an ability to fair catch. Ryan Mouton couldn't even do that reliably when things were at their worst.

The Colts have always seemed to figure they'd simply get the yards the return game doesn't provide from Peyton Manning and the offense. Their issues on special teams extend beyond the returners -- primarily T.J. Rushing on punts and Chad Simpson on kicks in 2009 -- and their blocking, and got magnified in the Super Bowl loss to New Orleans. But with offensive line and depth at corner and linebacker as the major needs in a draft where the Colts have eight picks, it appears a good time to try to add a dynamic piece.

Upon seeing the news that Chicago cut cornerback Nathan Vasher quickly got the AFC South Blog thinking about his potential to fit in this division.

The Texans and Titans are cornerback needy, but it’s the Colts who rank as the best fit for him based on what the very smart Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. told me Thursday morning.

"Don't love him. He isn't real fast and he isn't real big. Two problems for a CB. The Bears didn't do a real good job of getting after the QB this past season, but Vasher also didn't play all that well either. He is more of a short-area quickness guy, which was a pretty good fit with the Cover 2, but not as much in Tennessee or Houston. He was much more productive early in his career -- on very good defenses -- and probably inflated his name value more than his true play now indicates. He also has missed a lot of time with injuries, which could have directly led to his overall play falling off."

The Colts do need secondary depth after a purge that saw Marlin Jackson, Tim Jennings, T.J. Rushing and Aaron Francisco all become free agents after Indy didn’t tender them as restricted. Jackson signed in Philly where he’s going to convert to safety. Jennings signed in Chicago, where he’s surely part of the reason the Bears felt OK about parting with Vasher.

NFC North kingpin Kevin Seifert says the release came a year too late and that Vasher, who was productive early in his career, was already an “inferior player” at the end of 2008.

It will be interesting to see where he lands.

We’ve fielded some questions about the “final eight” rule that restricts what the last eight teams alive in the playoffs -- including the AFC champion Colts -- bringing in unrestricted free agents before they lose one.

Here’s an old post detailing the rule.

And here’s the clarification:

The Colts were able to sign guard Andy Alleman because he isn’t a six-year player who reached unrestricted free agency when March 4 turned into March 5. Alleman was a restricted free agent for the Chiefs, but Kansas City declined to tender him, the same way the Colts declined to tender Marlin Jackson, Tim Jennings, Aaron Francisco, T.J. Rushing, Daniel Federkeil, Tyjuan Hagler, Freddy Keiaho and Hank Baskett.

While all those guys become unrestricted in free agency in that they are allowed to sign anywhere, they aren’t the same sort of free agent that Gary Brackett was, briefly, or that any player with an expiring contract and six or more years of experience became.

And so the Colts were free to sign Alleman.

And if Jackson signs with Baltimore or Philadelphia this week, it won’t mean the Colts are then free to sign an unrestricted free agent.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.

And here’s what Scouts Inc. has to say about Alleman, who scored just a 53 in their free-agent grading. I presume he’ll get a chance to compete with Kyle DeVan at right guard or work as an interior backup.

Alleman has bounced around between three teams during the three years he has been in the NFL since being drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the third round of the 2007 draft. He played in nine games, starting three, for the Chiefs in 2009. He is a good sized lineman with above average initial quickness and agility but is not a natural knee bender and will overextend into blocks. He tends to play with a narrow base and can struggle to react and right himself against good counter moves by the pass rusher. He is a decent backup that can step in to start for a game or two but is not the kind of athlete you want to start all 16 games.

The first move of the free agency period in the AFC South was hardly earth-shattering: Houston punter Matt Turk re-signed with the Texans for a year.

Agent David Canter revealed the news in a tweet and did not share financial terms.

Also, the league sent out the official list of RFA tenders so we have info on the guys who were missing.

Jacksonville put a third-round tender on linebacker Clint Ingram and did not tender defensive lineman Greg Peterson.

The Colts put second-round tenders on Charlie Johnson, Melvin Bullitt, Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir. The did not tender Hank Baskett, Tyjuan Hagler, Freddy Keiaho, or T.J. Rushing.

That makes for four defensive backs the Colts passes on retaining -- Marlin Jackson, Tim Jennings and Aaron Francisco were also not tendered.

The RFA tender lists of the Texans and Titans were previously complete.

Aaron Wilson reports that former Titans coordinator Jim Schwartz is at Kyle Vanden Bosch's Nashville home trying to recruit the unrestricted defensive end.

Houston Texans

Potential unrestricted free agents: CB Dunta Robinson, WR Kevin Walter, RB Chris Brown, DT Jeff Zgonina, G Chester Pitts, S Brian Russell, S Nick Ferguson, LS Bryan Pittman, LB Chaun Thompson, QB Rex Grossman, LB Khary Campbell, G Tutan Reyes, T Ephraim Salaam, P Matt Turk.

Potential restricted free agents: DL Tim Bulman, S John Busing, OT Rashad Butler, TE Owen Daniels, RB Ryan Moats, S Bernard Pollard, LB DeMeco Ryans, G Chris White.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: I don’t think the Texans will jump out and make any monumental moves. But by deciding not to tag Robinson they created another hole and saved themselves big dollars. With needs at corner, running back, free safety, interior offensive line and defensive tackle they may have more than they can address in one draft. That means they could jump out for one significant free agent – like they did last year with defensive lineman Antonio Smith -- and maybe another less expensive one or two.

Indianapolis Colts

Potential unrestricted free agents: MLB Gary Brackett, K Matt Stover.

Potential restricted free agents: WR Hank Baskett, S Antoine Bethea, S Melvin Bullitt, OL Dan Federkeil, CB Aaron Francisco, LB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson, CB Tim Jennings, DT Antonio Johnson, OT Charlie Johnson, LB Freddy Keiaho, DT Dan Muir, CBPR T.J. Rushing.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: Brackett is priority one and the team has indicated a plan to pay him as an upper-echelon guy. The restricted list includes a lot of key guys who will remain big factors next year. Indy is not a team that looks to bring in many outsiders for big roles and it won’t start now. Bill Polian’s said the Colts will sit back and see how things unfold in the new capless landscape.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Potential unrestricted free agents: DE Reggie Hayward, G Kynan Forney.

Potential restricted free agents: DT Atiyyah Ellison, LB Clint Ingram, DL Greg Peterson.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: The Jaguars are draft-reliant, but will also shop for bargains in free agency, hoping to plug a couple holes with high-character guys with upside who fit what they are doing. As for a big splash, it’s unlikely based on their recent busts with big-name free agents like Jerry Porter and Drayton Florence and the direction they’ve moved since.

Tennessee Titans

Potential unrestricted free agents: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, C Kevin Mawae, LB Keith Bulluck, TE Alge Crumpler, CB Nick Harper, CB Rod Hood, DE Jevon Kearse, S Kevin Kaesviharn.

Potential restricted free agents: DE Dave Ball, DT Tony Brown, TE Bo Scaife, LB Stephen Tulloch, DT Kevin Vickerson, RB LenDale White.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: The Titans will undergo a youth movement, especially on defense where Vanden Bosch and Bulluck, who’s recovering from ACL repair, are going to be allowed to walk. Mawae been told his only chance to return is as a backup at a backup price. Brown, Scaife and Tulloch are important guys they’ll want to retain. Beyond that, expect mostly bargain shopping.

Restricted free-agent tenders have to be done before midnight ET. Here's what's out so far:

Houston

• DL Tim Bulman – Right of first refusal.
• S John Busing – Not tendered.
• OT Rashad Butler -- Third.
• TE Owen Daniels – First and third.
• RB Ryan Moats – Third.
• S Bernard Pollard – First.
• LB DeMeco Ryans – First and third.
• G Chris White – Right of first refusal.

From John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Indianapolis

• WR Hank Baskett
• S Antoine Bethea – First.
• S Melvin Bullitt
• OL Dan Federkeil
• CB Aaron Francisco
• LB Tyjuan Hagler
• CB Marlin Jackson
• CB Tim Jennings
• DT Antonio Johnson
• OT Charlie Johnson
• LB Freddy Keiaho
• DT Dan Muir
• CB/PR T.J. Rushing

Bethea info from Adam Schefter.

Jacksonville

• DT Atiyyah Ellison
• LB Clint Ingram
• DL Greg Peterson

Tennessee

• DE Dave Ball – Second.
• DT Tony Brown – First.
• TE Bo Scaife – First at 110% or nearly $4.9 million.
• LB Stephen Tulloch –First.
• DT Kevin Vickerson –Second.
• RB LenDale White –Second.

From Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.

It’s a whole new offseason world starting March 5, and we have no experience from which to predict what happens in an uncapped year. There are enough restrictions on the players’ side to offset the Wild West so many initially projected.

One area I am really curious to see is restricted free agency. Because there are fewer unrestricted free agents (it takes six years to get there now, not four), will teams be more protective of their RFAs and more aggressive in terms of signing RFAs from outside to offer sheets?

I certainly think a creative front office that can go after the right guys can lure them away or at least get a trade conversation going.

Teams must tender their RFAs by the end of March 4. Here are the levels of tags:

With no CBA by March 5, and we aren’t expecting one, here are the RFAs for each team in the AFC South, according to the NFLPA.

Houston

• DL Tim Bulman
• S John Busing
• OT Rashad Butler
• TE Owen Daniels
• RB Ryan Moats
• S Bernard Pollard
• LB DeMeco Ryans
• G Chris White

Indianapolis

• WR Hank Baskett
• S Antoine Bethea
• S Melvin Bullitt
• OL Dan Federkeil
• CB Aaron Francisco
• LB Tyjuan Hagler
• CB Marlin Jackson
• CB Tim Jennings
• DT Antonio Johnson
• OT Charlie Johnson
• LB Freddy Keiaho
• DT Dan Muir
• CB/PR T.J. Rushing

Jacksonville

• DT Atiyyah Ellison
• LB Clint Ingram
• DL Greg Peterson
• DT Montavious Stanley

Tennessee

• DE Dave Ball
• DT Tony Brown
• TE Bo Scaife
• LB Stephen Tulloch
• DT Kevin Vickerson
• RB LenDale White

» Super Bowl Final Word: Colts | Saints

MIAMI -- Five nuggets of knowledge about Super Bowl XLIV between the New Orleans Saints (15-3) and Indianapolis Colts (16-2):

1. Peyton Manning should expect to see a defensive Plan A, B and C. In the AFC Championship Game, the Jets brought some early blitzes that were unfamiliar and confused the Colts. But once Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore had some time on the sidelines to sort things out, they solved the puzzle. Once they did, they seemed to deflate New York, which failed to make any major countermoves.

Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams should have multiple plans and when he senses the Colts have figured something out, he’ll flip the switch on some major alterations and be prepared to do so multiple times. If Manning wins on smarts, odds are he will be challenged more than he was two weeks ago.

2. Indianapolis doesn’t run it well, but watch how it runs once it’s inside the 20. The Colts finished last in the league in rushing the ball this year with 1,294 yards. However, they did score 16 rushing touchdowns and ESPN Stats & Information says they had a nice balance of rush-to-pass play calls down in the red zone (74-78). Their predictability on offense before reaching the red zone may have caused Manning’s numbers to suffer on play-action passes.

In red-zone play-action he had six touchdowns and no interceptions in 12 pass attempts this season, posting a 124.3 passer rating. Outside of the red zone his rating on play-action was only 79.7 and his five touchdowns are measured against nine interceptions. His completion percentage is 63.3 outside the red zone on play-action, 20 points lower than inside it.

3. The Colts' secondary depth is their weak spot. Even if Jerraud Powers is fine to play after recent foot surgery, if the Saints can force the Colts to use six defensive backs, that last man is a shaky piece of the defense. Kelvin Hayden and Powers are quality starters, and although Jacob Lacey got torched on an 80-yard touchdown against the Jets, he’s a capable player too.

But if the Colts need to rely much on Tim Jennings or go deeper than that to someone like Aaron Francisco or T.J. Rushing, I expect Sean Payton and Drew Brees will target them as quickly and as often as possible. They should.

4. For all the grief about his postseason failures, Manning’s got some good numbers. Break down the top five players in postseason passing yardage by the game, and Manning’s the best of them with an average of 284 to Joe Montana (251), Dan Marino (251), Brett Favre (244) and John Elway (226). No one has more playoff 300-yard passing games than Manning’s seven.

But his counterpart’s got an amazing number going this season when it comes to facing top postseason quarterbacks. The Super Bowl will mark the fourth time this season Brees has faced a former Super Bowl MVP. The three quarterbacks he faced before Peyton Manning were Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. Brees has been unreal in those games, posting a combined passer rating of 152.8 with three wins, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.

5. With or without Dwight Freeney, the Colts might be wise to blitz. This defense is far different than the one on the 2006 championship Colts. That was a Cover 2 team that rushed four almost every snap. This is a group that is willing to blitz.

The Cardinals and Vikings rarely tested Brees with an additional pass rush in New Orleans’ first two postseason games, ESPN Stats & Info says. Against four or fewer rushers, he’s thrown five touchdown and no interceptions, averaged 8.2 yards an attempt and posted a passer rating of 127.3. Against five or more rushers he’s thrown one touchdown and no interceptions, averaged 4.3 yards an attempt and posted a rating of 90.2.

Aaron Hurley from parts unknown writes: We talk about Peyton Manning's greatness, but we do our best to forget that he has always been surrounded by first round picks - sometimes high ones - and Pro Bowlers like Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Ken Dilger, Marcus Pollard, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Anthony Gonzalez. We also forget that Manning didn't win a playoff game until his 5th year AND has lost in the first round in 6 of his 9 trips DESPITE all that talent around him. Yet we want to act all shocked that David Garrard can't get it done with Mike Sims-Walker, Maurice Jones-Drew, and nothing else, including a terrible offensive line and a bad defense? Where would Jacksonville be with Manning at QB? The same place they are now: a non-playoff team. (What if Mark Sanchez played for the Jags instead of a team with a great running game, outstanding defense and good WRs? They don't even go 7-9 with 4 losses by a TD or less.) Why don't we get to see Manning play with a terrible team on offense, and THEN see how great he is. As if Manning would have transformed that bunch in Jacksonville into Pro Bowlers with his brilliant play or something. And yes, the same goes for Drew Brees: it took the guy 10 years to get his first playoff victory despite all the talent that he had around him in New Orleans AND San Diego.

Paul Kuharsky: I’ll grant you there is a chicken and egg argument. Does the quarterback make the cast better or does the cast make the quarterback?

But swap Garrard and Manning right now. The Jaguars get significantly better and the Colts get significantly worse.

I don’t buy grading QBs down for having good people around them. Am I supposed to blame Manning for being on a team smart enough to judge talent and surround him with it? No. Am I supposed to grade Garrard up because he doesn’t have offensive personnel to match? No.

How much time does Garrard get?

The big issue here is that they jumped the gun to give him the big contract.

Craig Montgomery in Seymour, IN writes: With both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning up for new contracts, the discussion about who should be the higher-paid player has popped up. Ron Jaworski says, because of the "jewelry", Brady should be the highest paid player. While I agree that Brady is an outstanding QB, I think Jaws is off his rocker (not the first time, by the way). If the number of rings determines the amount of money a player should be paid, and, by proxy, the level of value a player has on the team, Doug Williams should have made more money than Dan Marino. The amount of money paid to a player should be based upon how easily he could be replaced. Not to lessen the importance of TB to the Pats, but Matt Cassel lead them to an 11-5 season when TB was hurt. Does anyone think Curtis Painter could lead the team to such a record? Agree or disagree?

Paul Kuharsky: Agreed with you for a while, but you lost me at the end.

Yes, Manning is nearly impossible to replace and that adds to his value. But Jim Sorgi getting hurt or the Colts’ failure to have an adequate backup isn’t one of the 100s of reasons I would pay Manning. What's he have to do with that except that by being durable he makes it a non-concern? And that the Pats were able to win with Cassel shouldn’t make Brady, who's won three Super Bowl, less valuable in my eyes.

Derek from Mitchell, IN writes: You look like Anthony Gonzales' dad, in the two photos on your article about him. Go Colts.

Paul Kuharsky: So what I am hearing you say is that Mr. Gonzalez is a very handsome fellow?

Jason in Philadelphia writes: Injuries can ruin a team and it's chance to make a serious playoff/ Super Bowl run, but I think injuries can also benefit a team. If Bledsoe wasn't hurt in '01 Tom Brady may have never broken out like he did. If Gonzo, Sanders, Jackson, and Hayden weren't hurt this year it may have taken much longer to find out how valuable Garcon, Collie, Bullitt, Powers, and Lacey actually are. Indy was the 2nd most injured team this season (so i've heard) and they are in the Super Bowl. If that doesn't preach the importance of solid scouting and coaching, I don't know what does. Must be nice to have all that depth at WR and DB.

Paul Kuharsky: Absolutely it is, though I am not sure they think their corner depth extends beyond Tim Jennings, and I know a lot of people aren’t high on him. If Aaron Francisco or T.J. Rushing is on the field, I would think the Saints have a mismatch to exploit.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- We spoke to Jerraud Powers earlier this week and he expressed no doubt about playing Sunday.

But I asked Jim Caldwell this morning if Powers had surgery and he confirmed Powers had.

Here’s the news story.

If Powers can’t play or is not effective, I think it might be a bigger concern than a limited or missing Dwight Freeney.

The depth at defensive end is better than at corner, where the Saints would surely look to target Tim Jennings if he’s the nickel and go after whoever is at dime -- Aaron Francisco (who needs surgery on both his pinkies, by the way), T.J. Rushing or Jamie Silva.

NFC South maven Pat Yasinskas obtained the list that lines up with this report about the 212 players scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2010, who will instead be only restricted free agents if a new labor deal isn't reached.

Stinks to be these guys who stand to lose a lot of leverage, and in many instances, a lot of money.

Houston

• FS John Busing
• OT Rashad Butler
• TE Owen Daniels
• RB Ryan Moats
• SS Bernard Pollard
• MLB DeMeco Ryans
• C Chris White

Indianapolis

• WR Hank Baskett
• FS Antoine Bethea
• FS Aaron Francisco
• OLB Tyjuan Hagler
• CB Marlin Jackson
• CB Tim Jennings
• OT Charlie Johnson
• LB Freddy Keiaho
• CB T.J. Rushing

Jacksonville

• OLB Clint Ingram
• DT Montavious Stanley
• WR Troy Williamson

Tennessee

• DE Dave Ball
• DT Tony Brown
• TE Bo Scaife
• MLB Stephen Tulloch
• DT Kevin Vickerson
• RB LenDale White

INDIANAPOLIS -- T.J. Rushing was all set. The Colts don’t boast much of a return team and he had fair caught three of the balls off Chris Hanson’s foot, allowing the other to be downed. Now, he’d get one more chance.

With a fourth-and-2 from the Patriots' 28-yard line, he was ready to line up and hoping he wouldn’t have to wave before catching punt No. 5.

“I think I was going to line up at the 25-yard line, about 45 yards away from him, because he was hitting them pretty good today, so I was hoping he out-kicked his coverage,” Rushing said. “Third-down stop, I got excited because I thought I was going to get a chance to make a play.

“I ran out on the field, I saw [Tom] Brady still out on the field, and I was like, ‘What is happening?’ They’re on their own end of the field, there is no way they are going to go for it.”

What was happening was Patriots coach Bill Belichick was deciding on an all-or-nothing gamble. He sent his offense back on the field to get the first down, to end the game with a gain of six feet with 2:08 left on the clock.

“That was like a video-game play,” Rushing said. “You’re playing your buddy and you’re like, ‘I’m just going to go for it.’ I guess they figured no matter what, if the offense got the ball back, we were going to win. That’s the only thing I can think of.”

Strong safety Melvin Bullitt lined up on running back Kevin Faulk with a mentality much like Rushing’s. He was going to make the game-swinging play. Defensive backs coach Alan Williams had told his guys all week in a fourth-down situation like this one, the Patriots would go to Wes Welker or Faulk.

Brady took a shotgun snap and threw to Faulk on the right. Bullitt was right there, wrapping up Faulk and taking him down for a 1-yard gain. Colts’ ball, and, four plays later, Colts’ game, 35-34, after a Peyton Manning-to-Reggie Wayne touchdown.

In showing confidence in his offense, Belichick set off an inadvertent side effect.

The Colts' defense was offended by the boldness.

“I was thinking, ‘Man, they’re going to try us like that? They’re going to disrespect us like that?' ” linebacker Philip Wheeler said. “We’ve got to stop them. We’ve got to man up. And we did that. Maybe it wasn’t disrespectful, maybe it was the smartest thing they could think of to do. I think we handled our business when they did it.”

“We just felt as though, that was a slap in the face,” free safety Antoine Bethea said. “Fourth down, in their territory? That was just a smack in the face. But the defense, we stood up and made a big play.”

Former Colts coach Tony Dungy, on NBC’s postgame show, questioned the logic.

“You have to punt the ball in that situation,” Dungy said. “As much as you might respect Peyton Manning, you have to play the percentages and punt the ball.”

The Colts (9-0) needed Belichick’s bailout plan because they’d played a game lacking their typical crispness and efficiency.

The fierce pass rush was stonewalled, the secondary toasted for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns by Randy Moss. The offense stumbled, with rhythm issues and drops.

Pierre Garcon was targeted 11 times, and while all those throws from Manning were hardly perfect, he pulled in only three of them. He didn’t think his 29-yard touchdown catch offset the errors. Rookie Austin Collie booted at least one pass too. Manning even threw a wobbly duck for one of his two picks.

“There were a lot of things,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell said. “One of the things we certainly can’t do is give up big plays and early on there Moss was kind of having his way with us I think. … You get him where he’s even with you and Brady’s not going to miss him. He puts that ball right on the money.

“Then we had penalties that set us back a little bit and dropped passes. So there are a lot of things for us to work on. It’s great to get a victory when maybe you didn’t play as well as you’re capable of.”

The Colts’ best work may have come on the play that produced the decisive points.

Earlier, Manning had looked unsuccessfully for Wayne on a fade in the left side of the end zone. From the 1-yard line with 16 seconds left, Manning was looking to try it again.

“I gave him my C.C. Sabathia shake off,” Wayne said. “I felt like I wanted to show fade and just come with the slant and it worked. [It was] at the line of scrimmage. You’ve got to be quick with it. You’ve got to shake him off and go on to the next call. I shook him off and I gave him the signal. I think after nine years he can trust me.”

The tired Colts shrugged after it was all over as they considered just how it unfolded.

“That’s the craziest win I’ve ever been involved in,” Bullitt said. “They’re bold. We never expected anything less.”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky

The Colts lost strongside linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, cornerback Marlin Jackson and safety Bob Sanders for the season with injuries this week.

[Update: Adam Schefter reports Sanders has a torn biceps tendon that will end his season.]

The team also announced news Wednesday that receiver Anthony Gonzalez just had surgery and Mike Chappell also reports Kelvin Hayden may miss up to four weeks with his knee injury.

Indianapolis may be the best next-man-up team in the league, and it’s a testament to their depth.

Here’s a quick review of the guys who will be expected to do more with those holes in the lineup

Strongside linebacker Philip Wheeler: He’s a bit bigger than Hagler and was the presumed starter through the offseason and training camp. He couldn’t hold on to the job then, however. I did this entry on Wheeler back in June. A lot of Colts linebackers, like weakside starter Clint Session, have started off a bit slowly but really blossomed with some time in the system. The hope is that’s the case for Wheeler now.

Cornerback Tim Jennings: Rookies Jerraud Power and Jacob Lacey are in line to start and they’ve played very well in extensive opportunities. The third guy, Tim Jennings, hasn’t been as good and the fourth guy, T.J. Rushing is known as a returner, not a defensive back. Maybe the Texans to try get the Colts into their nickel and to do what they can to go after Jennings.

Strong safety Melvin Bullitt: He’s not the physical presence of Sanders, but Bullitt’s played a lot with all of Sanders’ injuries. He’s a fine player who will show up in the right spots and make plays. I can’t ever recall watching a play and thinking he looked bad.

Receiver Pierre Garcon: After a big start Garcon’s come back to earth a bit the last few games. The Colts would benefit from him regaining his confidence and playing as he did early in the season. Even if he doesn’t, with Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and rookie Austin Collie producing, the team’s done better than many expected without Gonzalez, who’s been out since suffering a knee injury early in the season opener.