AFC South: The Dreaded Coin Flip

Reading the coverage…

Join our Pick ‘Em pool and see if you can do better than a coin flip picking games against the spread this season.

Houston Texans

Shayne Graham knows he’s got to earn the kicking job every week whether or not he’s the line kicker on the roster. There are some quality alternatives out there, including Neil Rackers, the Texans' former kicker who left for a free agent deal but got cut in Washington.

The canny Texans are built around character, says Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports.”It's about identifying good people, giving people space to be themselves, and being imminently willing to reward your own as you develop a young core.”

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts gave up a lot to get a player with some baggage, but Vonta Davis is a risk worth taking, says Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star. I agree entirely. He gives them a chance to be a lot better on defense, especially if the other top corner, Jerraud Powers, can stay healthy.

Keeping Andrew Luck upright is priority one for the Colts, and it’s not something they’ve proven to be good enough at yet, says Mike Chappell of the Star.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Unsurprisingly, Rashad Jennings is officially in line to start the Jaguars’ season-opener against Minnesota, says Vito Stellino. If Maurice Jones-Drew doesn’t show up today, it’ll be the 34th day of his holdout.

Four Jaguars went to IR and linebacker Clint Session and defensive end John Chick went on PUP as the Jaguars got their roster to 75, says Stellino.

Tennessee Titans

Packages mean that Jordan Babineaux and Robert Johnson will both get starts at safety according to defensive coordinator Jerry Gray, says John Glennon. I hate anything that puts Michael Griffin at strong safety and asks him to come into the box, and when they signed him to a big contract that’s not what anyone should have been envisioning. He needs to be a centerfielder.

Leroy Harris is still rounding into form after a couple offseason surgeries, says Glennon.

Andre Johnson did not practice on Monday, says John McClain.
A year ago, BirdMan really took off.

He beat 775 other entries in our annual “Fear The Coin” Pigskin Pick ’Em pool.

I hope he will try to defend his crown.

You are cordially invited to participate in this year’s pool. It’s simple. Create an entry and join our league. Pick every game every week against the spread. Try to finish above a The Dreaded Coin Flip entry.

Easier said than done.

The Coin had an off season last year and still finished 163rd. Still, it beat 613 people. ( I tied for 14th and was proud.)

It’s a great weekly reminder at just how unpredictable the NFL is.

Please join the fun.
Belated, but still hearty, congratulations to BirdMan, who made a tremendous showing in our Pigskin Pick’em pool during the regular season.

He correctly picked 153 games against the spread to win by two games in a field of 776 entries in "Fear the Coin."

OakTown placed with 151 while RaiderNation and russwade111 tied for third at 146.

THE DREADED COIN FLIP, who we all play to beat, had a mediocre year, tying for 163rd with 121 correct picks. He had one stretch of eight weeks with eight correct picks and really suffered with a "2" in Week 12.

I am proud to have placed tied for 14th with 140 picks.

It’s a fun thing to do and to track. I hope to bring it back next year and get over 1,000 entries.

Thanks for playing. Drinks are on BirdMan.

You, me, a coin and a season of games

September, 8, 2011
9/08/11
10:07
AM ET
Here’s your last chance to be part of the biggest thing going in the land of the AFC South blog.

For the uninformed and uninitiated, we pick games against the spread in a Pigskin Pick’em pool. The twist: The Dreaded Coin Flip entry.

Virtually everyone thinks he or she can out-pick a coin. But the fact is it’s pretty difficult.

The whole deal is a testament to one of our core themes, that the NFL’s unpredictability is the single best thing it has going for it and a singular ingredient in its popularity.

So create an entry and see how you can do. I have high hopes for defeating the coin, how about you? Your performance might even get you a mention in the blog.

The season kicks off tonight, so you need to get in now.
Last year, in our initial foray into battling in a Pigskin Pick’em Pool, many of us were shamed by a coin flip.

Here’s your invitation to give it another shot.

For years, I’ve been in a pool with friends where we pick every game of the regular season, against the spread. While winning it outright is an admirable goal, the bigger deal is to merely fare better than an entry known, spookily, as “The Dreaded Coin Flip.”

Heads is the favorite, tails is the dog.

Surely your strategy and knowledge can top that, right?

That’s what 415 of us thought last season. And just 37 entries managed to beat the coin, including Josh Snell, who won our pool by five games.

A few of you have asked about it, so we will revive the league. Let’s have a far bigger field, please.

Head here to create your entry and join our group, "Fear the Coin Flip." Spread the word to your pals. I’ll offer up a few reminders between now and opening day.

Fear the coin.
The final standings are in from our NFL Pigskin Pick 'em pool and congratulations are in order for Nashville’s Josh Snell, who outpicked a field of 415 and won four more games than anyone else in a season picking against the spread.

Here are the Top 5:
  1. WinningOne, J. Snell – 145
  2. Big Bill D, W. DeWitt – 141
  3. What Gambling Problem?, T. Vanderslice – 141
  4. fightingdrone 1, D. Porritt – 141
  5. Rex Ryan's Curse Jar, A. Santana -- 140

Those five and 32 others in the field beat The Dreaded Coin Flip, which won 129 games. The coin averaged just over eight wins a week, overcame Week 5 when it won only one pick, and rallied with double-digit wins in four of the last seven weeks.

The Coin finished tied for 38th. I made a decent run with my entry, finishing with 125 correct picks, tied for 56th and kicking myself over ridiculously failing to pick the Week 4 slate when my routine failed me.

Dammit!

Snell, 30, watches a lot of football, enjoys family time, plays a lot of poker and can (probably) fix your computer. He’s hoping to play in the World Series of Poker circuit event in Tunica, Miss. later this month.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Josh Snell:
“I have to start off by thanking my beautiful wife Mandy and my wonderful son Jordan for always being there for me. Thank you to my mother Penny, my sister Rachel, and the rest of my family for all their recent support through a very difficult time. Of course I have to thank God for allowing me to be here. It was fun making these picks all year but got way too close for comfort at the end of the season! Thank you Paul for representing Nashville and the AFC South. Go Titans!!”

Snell won the right to tell all of us we’re terrible. He and the rest of you who beat the coin, say so when you have a question in a chat, on Facebook or Twitter or in my mailbag. You’ll be like a Super Elite Frequent Flier and if everything is in order, I'll move you to the head of the line. Even give you a first class seat if I have one open.

It was fun. I hope we can do it, or something like it, against next season.
How about that n. ryer and his “nanuiyer” entry in our "Fear the Coin Flip" Pigskin Pick’Em Pool?

He or she called every game of the weekend correctly against the spread. A perfect 14 for 14! It was the first unblemished week for any of our 415 entries though seven full slates of games.

Our archenemy “THE DREADED COIN FLIP,” hit on only eight games, but that was better than my six.

“WinningOne,” the entry that belongs to J. Snell, leads D. Caplan by a remarkable five games and has a six-game lead over four others in the overall standings.

The coin is tied for 111th. I am tied for 180th, despite being weak and missing a week.

Lions keep the coin from winless week

October, 12, 2010
10/12/10
6:40
PM ET
Congratulations to N. Light, R. Hiland, J. Bessette and S. Cameron for their shared win in our 415-entry Pick’Em Pool this week. They all got 10 games right against the spread.

That’s a phenomenal week when measured against our collective target, as “The Dreaded Coin Flip” nailed just one game. Only a tails that liked the Lions proved correct for our friendly quarter. Previously the coin was averaging 8.75 wins a week.

I managed seven correct picks.

We’ve got a three-way tie for first overall: N. Light’s “VY + CJ =W,” J. Snell’s “WinningOne,” and J. Mosley’s “UNCLEJS22 1” each have 46 correct picks through five weeks, and a nice 10-game cushion on the coin.
In the weekly extras like fantasy football and our Pro Football Pick’Em pool, I’ve clearly overextended myself.

So I stand here before you ashamed to admit that I put up a big zero this week in our competition against “THE DREADED COIN FLIP,” as I somehow failed to make my picks.

Big bummer in terms of making a comparison to the coin over the full season. But like the teams I cover, I can’t dwell on the past and have to look ahead, yada, yada, yada.

Congrats to four of our 415 entries who posted 11 wins in Week 4: N Wise, J. Leslie, C. Mickle and j. mcmillan. Well done.

L. Barbato and the “Bunny Power” stand alone in first place.

The magic coin is tied for 13th.

Coin conqueror: C. Fortier's big week

September, 28, 2010
9/28/10
4:49
PM ET
"UTCCHUCK 1" got the job done in our Pigskin Pick’Em Pool with 12 wins against the spread in Week 3. Congratulations to C. FORTIER for a singular week.

With 32 correct picks, our overall leader through three weeks is L. Barbato’s “Bunny Power,” which has a two-game lead on two second-place entries.

“THE DREADED COIN FLIP” had a solid nine this week and stands tied for 21st among 415 entries with 26.

Yours truly got only six games right and is tied for 98th.

The coin taunts us. Proceed with your picks.

Coin conqueror: J. Christena

September, 21, 2010
9/21/10
6:14
PM ET
J. Christena, who's entry in our Pigskin Pick'em Pool has a name unsuitable for use here, had a tremendous week, nailing 13 of 16 games against the spread over the weekend.

He or she has 20 games right through two weeks, good for a tie for sixth place.

T. Vanderslice's entry, "What Gambling Problem," leads us all, alone, with 23 correct picks.

I had a good week, hitting on 10 games and stand in a tie for 46th.

Sadly, 78.5 percent of our 415 entries trail "THE DREADED COIN FLIP," which hit on eight games and is also in a tie for 46th.

Week 1: K. Hopper pulls away from coin

September, 14, 2010
9/14/10
4:56
PM ET
We’ve got 415 entries in our Pigskin Pick’em Pool, but we’re all gunning for the same one: The Dreaded Coin Flip.

Mr. Flip is tied for 57th with a mediocre 9-7 record against the spread through the season’s first weekend. Mr. Kuharsky embarrassed himself, I’m sure not for the first time, with a sterling 7-9 day that leaves me tied for 252nd.

Shockingly, one entry stands alone in first.

So Week 1 congrats to the KY Jellyfish entry, belonging to one K. Hopper. He or she went 13-3, sits alone in first and built an early four-game lead over the coin.

Don’t forget your entries this week. We’ll see what George Washington and my 2006 Nebraska quarter have to say about Week 2 developments.
Enjoy competition? Think you can pick games against the spread?

Then you are just the person I am looking for, and I cordially invite you to join the AFC South Blog Pigskin Pick'em Pool, where we all battle to stay above a line of demarcation/ humiliation known as "The Dreaded Coin Flip."

Surely you can beat a coin, no?

Here's the original entry on this deal, the fastest growing element of the AFC South Blog.

Simply head here and don't delay -- the season kicks off Thursday night and you'll be locked out if you wait too long.

At the bottom, sign in using your ESPN login and password or create an account. (No cost.)

Then join the group “Fear the Coin Flip” using the password “AFC South.”
Regular readers of the blog know I don’t pick games in the blog or related events.

I don’t believe this invitation conflicts with my principles on that -- as picking against a spread is a) impossible and b) not necessarily about who you think will win.

So here’s a personal invitation from me to you:

Join me in an ESPN.com Pigskin Pick’Em League. We’ll pick every game of the regular season against the spread.

Here’s the hook. We’re trying to win, sure. But only one of us will. The rest of us can score the next best victory if we can stay ahead of one of our competitors: THE DREADED COIN FLIP.

For as long as I’ve been in Nashville, friends connected to the Titans' press corps have participated in a similar picks league. Early on, one guy fared so poorly that his boss wrote an artificial press release announcing the company was considering replacing him with a coin flip. Thus THE DREADED COIN FLIP was born. And I’m not too proud to admit it once won our league and regularly finishes quite high.

So we’ll all fight the coin, a shiny quarter that will reside on the desk of my home office.

Beat him, and you’ll attain CD status -- coin defeater. I don’t know what that will get you. Perhaps you can identify yourself as such to help get a mailbag question answered or to get to the head of the line with your entry in a chat. The winner of the league will get his or her name in a wrap-up headline. Maybe I’ll box up the coin and send it to you.

It’ll turn us all into winners or losers, and who won’t enjoy that?

I’ll post once a week, or as I see fit, to offer thoughts and updates on how it’s unfolding.

And if it’s a disaster, we’ll simply scrap it next year and look for the next thing.

So we’ve got until Thursday night’s Vikings at Saints opener to populate this thing. Sign up, and tell your buddy and his spouse to sign up too.

Simply head here.

At the bottom, sign in using your ESPN login and password or create an account. (No cost.)

Then join the group “Fear the Coin Flip” using the password “AFC South.”
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