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Obviously no one on the Jaguars is under more pressure in 2012 than Blaine Gabbert.

But the quarterback is such an obvious choice, we will set him aside and go a different direction, to one of the people Gabbert or Chad Henne will need to be productive if the Jacksonville offense is going to make a significant jump.

Wide receiver Mike Thomas will have better coaching with Jerry Sullivan and a better supporting cast with Laurent Robinson, Taylor Price and, presumably, a high draft pick in the mix.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. has said Thomas can combine attributes of Wes Welker and Steve Smith.

But many Jaguars fans were left wondering about Thomas last season, when he fell off after he got a contract extension in early October. That three-year, $18 million deal included $9 million guaranteed. It eclipsed the three-year deal worth $13.35 million with $5 million guaranteed that Green Bay gave Jordy Nelson.

Thomas finished with 44 catches for 415 yards and a TD, and after the contract he didn’t have a game better than four catches for 36 yards. Nelson was obviously playing for a far better team with an MVP quarterback, but he had 68 catches for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Word in Jacksonville was that Thomas gave up late in the season, frustrated by a bad receivers coach in Johnny Cox and a struggling rookie quarterback in Gabbert. Cox was fired by interim head coach Mel Tucker and replaced by quarterbacks coach Mike Sheppard.

The Jaguars need Thomas to be the player they thought he was when they drafted him and then when they gave him the extension. He needs to be part of the solution for Gabbert, not an addition problem.

Thomas said recently he will benefit from being pushed by Sullivan, and if that helps, great.

But once the Jaguars signed him to a new deal, he graduated to an NFL veteran who shouldn’t necessarily need pushing. He’s a guy who should be motivated by simply living up to his contract and the faith his bosses have showed in him.

Will the additions amount to enough help? It’s too early to say and we don’t know who they will draft. But Thomas shouldn’t be the top option in the receiver group, and with Robinson in the fold Thomas should rank second at best.

Thomas is under pressure to produce.

How the 21 franchise tags from around the NFL affect the teams of the AFC South.

Houston Texans

Salary cap limitations likely mean the Texans are not active in free agency. The market may have shifted on a guy like Reggie Wayne, who could have been attractive with Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker out of the unrestricted free agent picture.

More significantly, the price defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams will be able to attract if he gets to free agency is likely up. The Colts tagged Robert Mathis, the Lions tagged Cliff Avril and the Cardinals tagged Calais Campbell, and they were the next-best pass-rushers for needy teams to target.

Indianapolis Colts

Those three receivers -- Bowe, Jackson and Welker -- disappearing from the market mean that two Colts unrestricted free agents to-be probably fare a bit better. Pierre Garcon has speed and youth to sell and Wayne has veteran wiles and reliability.

The Colts could make another charge at signing Garcon before March 13th, but he may be determined to see what free agency can bring him.

I don’t think they will have much money to spend on free agents, but the offensive line and defensive tackles pools -- their biggest positions of need beyond receiver -- are unchanged.

Jacksonville Jaguars

No one needs a big-time, team-leading wide receiver more than the Jaguars do. I don’t believe they would have been players for Jackson or Welker. But Bowe could have been a guy they were interested in.

Whether or not they will be players for Williams, plan B should have been Mathis. The hit to the potential defensive end market hurts as a big-time pass-rusher is the big defensive need. Cornerback could still be OK with Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan, Kansas City’s Brandon Carr and San Francisco's Carlos Rogers on track to reach free agency.

Tennessee Titans

That San Francisco tagged Dashon Goldson and Oakland franchised Tyvon Branch severely thinned the safety market, which helped prompt Tennessee to tag Michael Griffin. I would have loved to have seen their approach is the two guys from the West Coast were heading for unrestricted free agency.

Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reported that Mathis would have been a target and general manager Ruston Webster had said a special, pass-rushing defensive end was one position for which the team might have been willing to overpay. He didn’t say overpay by a gigantic degree, however. With a bid for Williams unlikely, who’s the next best rusher now?

Thoughts on theIndianapolis Colts’ 31-24 loss to the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium:

What it means: The Colts are 0-12, but get some credit for fighting back from a 31-3 deficit to get within a touchdown at the end. Quarterback Dan Orlovsky's final line -- 30-of-37 for 353 yards, two touchdowns and an interception -- gave him a 113.2 passer rating, less than 3 points off Tom Brady’s. But the bulk of Orlovsky’s completions and yards came after the Patriots had built a significant cushion.

What I didn’t like: The Patriots top two passing targets had their way with the Colts. Wes Welker was targeted by Brady 11 times and caught the pass all 11 times. Tight end Rob Gronkowski had two receiving touchdowns and one on what was judged to be a lateral. The Patriots scored on four touchdowns and a field goal on five of their first six possessions. On offense, running back Delone Carter lost a fumble, and such moments negate whatever confidence he’s built up during the week in practice from the coaching staff.

What I liked: Again, take it in the context of New England’s big early lead, but the Colts allowed on 3.0 yards per carry, converted 10 of 15 third downs and gained 437 net yards.

What’s next: The Colts travel to Baltimore for another very difficult AFC matchup that in recent years has typically had big playoff implications.

Reading the coverage ...

Houston Texans

T.J. Yates faced plenty of adversity while at UNC, so psychologically he should be able to handle a lot says Jeffrey Martin of the Houston Chronicle. One of his college coaches says he has “uncommon poise.”

The running game needs to be better than it was in Jacksonville, says John McClain of the Chronicle.

Lance Zierlein of chron.com says Atlanta ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards are defending the run well on the perimeter, which could be an issue for the Texans.

Indianapolis Colts

Larry Coyer is out and Mike Murphy is in as defensive coordinator for the Colts, but it’ll be difficult for the team to unleash much of a shakeup in the remaining five games, says Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star.

Cornerback Jerraud Powers relishes the chance to cover Wes Welker of the Patriots today, says Chappell.

Six things to watch for in Colts-Patriots from Nate Dunleavy of 18to88.com.

Jacksonville Jaguars

When Shahid Khan first got to the University of Illinois from Pakistan, he signed up for fraternity rush, eager to meet people who weren’t like him in his new home. The man in line to be the second owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars is an adventuresome opportunist, writes Tania Ganguli. That’s why those close to him are certain the team will succeed under his guidance.

With Will Middleton done for the season, the Jaguars have lost their top three outside cornerbacks, says Vito Stellino.

The change at receivers coach was overdue, says Gene Frenette.

Tennessee Titans

David Climer of The Tennessean likes the fact that Mike Munchak doesn’t have an agent. It means when he says he’s not talked to Penn State, it actually holds water. But Climer says Penn State could do far worse, and likely will.

The Titans have been great when they’ve gone for it on fourth down, and their eight conversions in 10 tries have provided a bit of a boost, says John Glennon of The Tennessean.

Linebacker and special teamer Tim Shaw conducts a video investigation into the Titans’ facial hair for titansonline.com.

The concept of a No. 1 receiver is often misunderstood. The term is certainly overused.

There are not 32 Andre Johnsons in the NFL: Big, physical, fast targets with good hands, who can run deep or go fearlessly across the middle, who consistently draw double coverage or make defenses pay a giant price for not paying sufficient attention.

Johnson is a No. 1 wide receiver and he’s the Texans' No. 1 wide receiver.

As the Jacksonville Jaguars sit in lockout limbo, their No. 1 wide receiver is Mike Thomas. Whether he can become a true No. 1 receiver remains to be seen. But if he does so it will be in the style of Carolina’s Steve Smith, a climb made despite not fitting the ideal height/weight/speed mold.

Thomas, who’s listed at 5-foot-8 and 198 pounds, did run a 4.3 40 at the scouting combine before the Jaguars drafted him in the fourth round out of Arizona in 2009. But he is on a run-first team where running back Maurice Jones-Drew and tight end Marcedes Lewis rank as primary threats in the passing game. He’s branded as a slot receiver, a tag that often denotes limitations. At this stage, many know him solely as the guy who caught David Garrard's Hail Mary that was batted by Glover Quin and beat the Houston Texans last season.

“I think highly of myself and I think that’s the only way to be,” he said. “I see that kind of stuff and I just kind of smile at it and laugh. We’ll see what happens. It’s not my job or I don’t care about it as much when people say those kinds of things. It comes with the territory. It doesn’t deter me from what I believe …

“Whatever jargon people can come up with, it’s nothing but fuel when you believe you’re just as good as some of the other receivers that they tend to give this high praise to. People tend to look over you, to look past you … I love it, getting that from people. When they see what I am doing on the field, they think differently. I think I am more than a slot receiver and that’s the way I go about my business.”

In his second season, Thomas had 66 catches for 820 yards and four touchdowns. (He also ran for 114 as a dangerous weapon on end-arounds.) If he makes the same reception jump he made from his rookie year to his second season, he’d be in line for 91 catches in a full season in 2011.

He wants 1,000 yards receiving and points to four games in 2010 where he had two catches or fewer. If he can be more of a factor in those four games, he should rack up more than the extra 180 yards that stood between him and the magical 1,000-yard mark.

He’s spent the lockout working out at Arizona, studying coverages and paying particular attention to defensive linemen and linebackers to get a better sense of the people he’s often got to get through before dealing with defensive backs.

Aware of the analysts who cite his limitations, he’s also seen himself on some lists of potential breakout players. He intends to make those predictions look good.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said Thomas is not one of the league’s 12 or 15 true No. 1 receivers, but offers a very positive review of him.

“I love Thomas,” Williamson said. “He might not ever be as good as either Wes Welker or Steve Smith in their prime, but he kind of a mixture of both players. He’s very explosive in a short area. He’s quick. He has great burst. He’s got a strong body despite his small stature. He runs well after the catch. He runs good routes and has good hands.”

Williamson said while the Jaguars could use a strong possession receiver, they can be OK entering the season with their current cast. Jason Hill is likely to be the other starting wide receiver, a healthy Jarett Dillard may be the third wideout, and understudies to Jones-Drew and Lewis, Rashad Jennings and Zach Miller, can also contribute. The team told Mike Sims-Walker before the lockout that it would not look to re-sign him as a free agent.

Thomas said it’s not so hard to shine as a receiver in a run-based offense, citing Roddy White in Atlanta as a prime example.

“I’m a receiver and I love to catch the ball, so of course I’d love to see us throw it more,” Thomas said. “At the same time I stay in my lane and I respect what kind of team we are, the guys I play with.”

He got a little work with first-round draft pick Blaine Gabbert during a recent player-organized practice and their relationship could be a key one for Jacksonville in the years to come.

But for now, Thomas expects Garrard to be under center.

“We’ll just have to see what happens at camp, and hopefully that’s soon,” he said. “The team’s come out publicly and said Gabbert’s going to take a year and develop and get some coaching. That being said, if it’s Dave, we’re going to continue to run with Dave. I think Dave is a hell of a quarterback. We hope he can get us in position to make a playoff push. If it’s Gabbert, then we’ll do the same thing with Gabbert.

“Whoever it is, I think it’s going to be a fantastic time.”

He’s more concerned with getting a chance to say “We’re No. 1” than “I am a No. 1.”

Tim Graham of the AFC East Blog and Buffalo chapter of the Jar Jar Binks Fan Club reports that Wes Welker is into the Pro Bowl as a replacement for Andre Johnson.

It’s hardly a surprise that Johnson won’t head to Hawaii. He played through an ankle injury for the majority of the season before missing the Texans’ final three games.

He still finished sixth in the NFL with 1,216 receiving yards.

Johnson’s continued presence, quite frankly, did a good bit of work in saving Gary Kubiak’s job. Bob McNair likes the offense so much, he couldn’t bear to take away the guy who constructed it and called its plays.

With Matt Schaub throwing to Johnson, and perhaps to an upgraded No. 2 receiver, and with Arian Foster carrying the ball and contributing to the passing game, the Texans should be a potent offense next year, particularly if they can figure out how not to start so slowly.

The Texans will still have Foster and Vonta Leach representing them in Hawaii.

There are fewer running backs carrying full loads around the NFL, which means the profile of the top receivers has risen during fantasy drafts.

So AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky steps outside of his usual arena to debate fantasy expert Ken Daube on this issue: Who's the better choice as top fantasy receiver, the Houston Texans' Andre Johnson or the New England Patriots' Randy Moss?

Paul Kuharsky: Well Ken, it’s our turn to take the stage in the Eight Great Debate Series and we’ve drawn a good one: Who’s the better fantasy option, AJ or Randy?

I always hate to appear I am backing the AFC South just because it’s what I cover. But this job gives me an up close view of Andre Johnson and I’d have a lot of trouble drafting any receiver ahead of him heading into the 2010 season.

Moss is explosive, and there will be weeks when he can single-handedly win you a game in a fantasy league. But I prefer a week-to-week chart that has fewer valleys than Moss’ might. Johnson had six games of under 70 yards last season. Moss had nine, including three that were smaller totals than Johnson’s worst game.

While Tom Brady and Moss could link up in ridiculous fashion the way they did three years ago -- when the receiver caught 23 touchdowns -- I’ve got to judge things on the most recent evidence. I think Johnson will catch more balls for more yards. Texans tight end Owen Daniels, if healthy, could approach Johnson in targets. But a healthy Wes Welker will draw Brady’s attention away from Moss more than any Texans pass-catcher can take away from Johnson.

Ken Daube: OK Paul, let me interrupt you right here so I can clear something up nice and early. Johnson, for as good as he was in 2009, only outscored Moss by nine fantasy points. Consider that Johnson and his quarterback, Matt Schaub, were healthy for the whole season. On the other hand, Moss played 11 games after separating his shoulder and Brady was at less than 100 percent as he was returning from a blown-out knee. Thus it's clear to me that for Johnson to be considered the superior option in 2010, he should have blown away Moss last season.

Welker's targets aren't going to be any sort of hindrance to Moss' fantasy value. Over the past three seasons, Welker has been targeted an average of 152 times. Moss' value wasn't affected. In fact, last season was the season that Welker had the most targets (162), and the banged-up Moss still finished as the second-best fantasy receiver.

On the other hand, your argument does work against your case for Johnson. In case you forgot, Daniels was injured in the Houston Texans' eighth game of the season. The loss presented more opportunities for Johnson, who scored 21 more fantasy points in the games that Daniels missed versus the contests in which Daniels participated. Without those 21 points, Moss would have finished as the top wide receiver last year and I'd be having this argument with someone else, because Johnson would have plummeted to fourth.

Paul Kuharsky: Look, Ken, on my team we are anti-Diva. Johnson’s going to run his route every snap, block for the run game, face the media as often as they ask for him and be completely accountable. This fosters chemistry in my pretend locker room, and we all know you get a ton of points for team harmony …

Sure, Johnson did benefit a bit from Daniels being out. He had 13 more catches in the second half of the season than he did in the first, when Daniels was on the field with him. But my guess is if the Texans played Seattle and St. Louis -- two of the league’s eight worst pass defenses -- in the first half of the season instead of the second half, Johnson still would have had close to 20 catches and nearly 200 yards a game against them.

Houston was 30th running the ball last year, and while I expect the Texans will be better, they are still going to have to sling it to maximize their chances to win.

Weather will rarely get in their way. Conditions at all of Johnson’s home games are good, or the roof at Reliant Stadium is closed. They only have three outdoor games in cold season -- at the Jets, at Philly and at Denver. The Patriots, meanwhile, have eight such games with November trips to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, December road games at Chicago and Buffalo and four November-December games at Foxborough, Mass. Cold weather isn’t killing Moss or the Patriots' pass game, but it’s not ideal for it either.

Ken Daube: Actually, the cold weather is perfect for the Patriots' pass game. In their last two games in significant snow (versus the Cardinals in 2008 and the Titans in 2009), the Patriots averaged 53 points per game. Moss averaged 108 yards and two scores in those games. Bring on the bad weather, it works for Moss.

Back to the Texans, when you think about it, last year broke almost perfectly for Johnson. With both Steve Slaton and Daniels injured, the Texans were left with only one option -- Johnson. This season, Arian Foster will man the backfield. Based on his performance in the final two games last season and his 2010 preseason, he's looking like a very good back for their running system. Daniels returns and big things are expected from Jacoby Jones as well. All of those factors are going to eat into Johnson's opportunities.

Meanwhile, in Foxborough, the same cast of misfits will be running the ball and their second receiver remains the same. Sure, they've rolled the dice on some youngsters as their third receiver and tight ends, but none of those roles will detract from Moss' value. You can be sure that Moss wants redemption for being labeled as soft last season. With a new contract on the line, Moss already had incentive for ensuring he finishes as the top receiver this year. Wanting redemption will just keep him more focused. He won't score 23 times this season, but projecting anything less than 16 is foolish. Considering that Johnson scored 17 times in the last two seasons combined, those taking Johnson are going to have to bank on an awful lot of yardage to inflate Johnson's value. With Foster, Daniels and Jones around, I just can't see enough yardage available this year.

Paul Kuharsky: I've got to be honest. This qualifies as a beat down right now. My first attempt at a fantasy-based debate should be my last and I should stick to being an AFC South expert. But since I have the final word, I'll take my best shot at pulling out a late win. Like Schaub would be throwing to Johnson in such a situation, I will aim for your colleagues, Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell.

“I’m on Andre’s side,” Berry said. “…You should know the consensus is Andre as well, so you can always play [up that] millions of people can’t be wrong.

“Andre Johnson has led the NFL in receiving yards for two straight years. The only other wide receiver to do that in NFL history? Jerry Rice. (Thank you for that stat, Chris Harris.)

“Matt Schaub threw for at least 300 yards nine times last year, tied for the NFL lead with Peyton Manning.

“Oh, and by the way, if Randy Moss does outscore Andre Johnson this year from a fantasy perspective, it’ll be the first time in three years that the 33-year-old Moss has done it.”

Said Karabell: “I can’t really make a great case for Moss, actually. I think of the main fantasy positions, I can make a case for the No. 2 quarterback over No. 1, and same at running back, but not at wide receiver. AJ is dominant, it’s an underrated passing offense and he’s got years and legs on Moss.”

So there.

Also, Ken, aren’t you the guy who said LaDainian Tomlinson should be the No. 1 player drafted in 2009?

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- It’s out of training and combine mode, back into football mode for Titans rookies, who hit the field Friday for two orientation practices and have another Saturday before heading home.

Safety Myron Rolle said he’s picked up on two big things so far: Punctuality and volume.

“It’s just a massive amount of information that you’re expected to know, quickly,” Rolle said. “And be on time, be five or 10 minutes early. Coaches just don’t like that and it doesn’t make a good impression either.”

Quick thoughts on my first impression of draftees from the second practice, which ran less than 90 minutes and included 24 players:

Defensive end Derrick Morgan -- I didn’t see the defensive linemen except when they did a bit of special teams work. Their area of the field’s been re-sodded, so they worked inside the practice bubble and never lined up across from offensive linemen.

I asked Morgan about the biggest change he feels coming.

“I’m kind of understanding more and more what Coach [Jim] Washburn wants from us and what he wants from me coming off the edge,” Morgan said. “My aiming points coming off the edge and what my aiming points were. Really it’s a lot different. It’s more so just cutting it loose and making something happen. Back at school it was more so reading the guy in front of you. Now you’re coming off, you’re going 100 miles an hour and you’re making the guy in front of you react to you.”

Wide receiver Damian Williams -- Not quite as tall as I was imagining, he had a nice advantage in one-on-ones since the defensive group is three-fourth safeties. I heard one other sideline observe call him slithery, but thought it was premature based on the small sampling. He did some good things against mostly guys he should beat in given the drill and personnel. He looked pretty tired near the end, walking back to the line of scrimmage as if he was hurting.

Linebacker Rennie Curran -- “There were some times where I missed on a play in a one-on-one situation and a back got by me,” he said. “I’ve just got to finish a play, got to show them that I can hustle and I don’t get down on myself in adversity.”

Cornerback Alterraun Verner --I saw good ball sense. While he didn’t always maintain great position on receivers in one-on-ones, he always seemed to know where the ball was. He stayed with Mico McSwain to assure a breakup was all the way broken up and on another play, he nearly turned a bobbled and dropped ball by Bobby Sewall into a behind the back interception but at least made sure it was incomplete.

Safety Robert Johnson -- He’s lanky and doesn’t look like he’s 203 pounds, but that’s what they say he is and I am no doubter. He looks a little like Bobby Myers body-wise. He ran well with Marc Mariani on a ball that was thrown well beyond them both and had a quick close on McSwain for a breakup. Clearly the better coverage safety of the two drafted safeties, as we presumed he would be.

Quarterback Rusty Smith -- The guy Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger described after the Titans drafted Smith in the sixth round was just the guy we saw. Tall, poised, threw the ball on target and with great zip. He’s got a nice quick delivery without a lot of wasted motion and throws a tight, fast spiral. He looks the part. One ball slipped out and was a duck and he seemed to do well laughing it off as Dinger called it “just a bit outside.”

Rolle -- Ran up the back of a receiver more than once and didn’t look particularly in coverage. I’m sure he’ll be better and tracking and closing on running backs when we get to watch that.

Mariani -- He’s wearing 83, so the first thing I thought was “smaller Drew Bennett.” Then someone saw him run a few routes and catch a few balls and said poor man’s Wes Welker, which made me think poor man’s Julian Edelman. He caught the ball very well, always with his hands and seemed to be running to the right spots. I was impressed.

Defensive tackle David Howard -- Missed him on the field, like I did Morgan, and didn’t get a chance to talk with him in the locker room either.

Titans offensive line coach Mike Munchak is a candidate for Houston’s offensive coordinator job. If Gary Kubiak retains assistants Alex Gibbs, John Benton and Bruce Matthews, that would be an awfully offensive line-heavy staff. Munchak and Matthews, the best of friends, would surely love to work together, though.

Houston Texans

The winning record heightens anticipation for 2010, says John McClain,

In addition to Kyle Shanahan, the Texans could lose Gibbs and Ray Rhodes, says McClain.

Richard Justice thinks Gary Kubiak should get an extension right now. I disagree.

Bill Belichick ripped the turf at Reliant Stadium as a cause of Wes Welker’s injury.

The turf was ranked fourth in the league by NFL players, says Alan Burge.

Franchise tagged or not, Dunta Robinson wants to return, writes McClain.

Could Rick Dennison replace Shanahan? Burge provides some rationale.

Why McClain is excited about next season.

The good and the bad of the Texans’ season from Lance Zierlein.

A look at offensive coordinator candidates, from Battle Red Blog.

Battle Red Blog isn’t that excited about Robinson’s desire to return.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts rest and wait to see which of three teams is heading to Indy for a divisional round game the night of Jan. 16.

Sam Giguere gave the Colts something to think about as they decide who to keep under contract for their playoff roster, says Phil Richards.

After a rough week in fan relations, Bill Polian spent a little time trying to butter them up: “The only people who can affect the game will be the people in this building – the players, the coaches, the administrators . . . and our fans.” John Oehser’s report.

The Colts are planning on business as usual, says Tom James.

Trying to get teams to play starters is an exercise in futility, says Clark Judge.

Who’s got momentum now, asks Deshawn Zombie.

Welker’s injury doesn’t vindicate Polian, says Stampede Blue.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are dealing with the fallout, writes Michael C. Wright. I delved into some of this earlier, here.

Players support Jack Del Rio, says Gene Frenette.

The Jaguars’ future depends on the draft, says Frenette.

Good to see Vic Ketchman back. And good stuff from him in reviewing the Jaguars’ season: “The bottom line is the season was not a failure and it revealed several bright spots."

Tennessee Titans

Vince Young is the starting quarterback going forward says Jim Wyatt.

Chris Johnson’s planning a busy offseason, say Wyatt and Gary Estwick.

Johnson’s basking in the glory of his accomplishment, writes Wyatt.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 17:

Andre Johnson and Wes Welker are two very different receivers with something big in common -- fantastic production. Last year, Johnson’s seven games with at least 10 catches and at least 100 yards set a record for such games in a season since 1960. Welker has six such games this season and can pull even Sunday at Reliant Stadium. Remarkably, the Texans’ pass defense will be trying to help Welker set another record. He’s caught 83 straight passes without a touchdown. The record is 92, set by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Keyshawn Johnson in 2001.

I expect Peyton Manning will be pulled in the second quarter, halftime at the latest in Buffalo. History shows it might be in the Colts’ best interest to have Manning play the full game, according to ESPN Stats & Information. (Not happening.) Since their run of 12-win seasons began in 2003, the two times Manning has played the full game in the regular-season finale, the Colts have won at least one playoff game, and their Super Bowl. The other four times, they lost in the divisional round of the postseason.

Maurice Jones-Drew already owns the Jaguars single-season record for rushing touchdowns. He will have a chance to add to that total against a Browns defense that has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season. Jacksonville is 5-0 at Cleveland. The playoffs are a long shot, but MJD did well to take over as a feature back this season. If Jacksonville wins, it finishes 8-8 and that would surpass preseason expectations.

The Titans will play their first game at Qwest Field. They’ve not been good on the West Coast under Jeff Fisher, though they won at San Francisco earlier this season and are going for their 10th consecutive win against an NFC opponent. Chris Johnson's pursuit of several statistical milestone is the obvious focus. Here’s an interesting angle to debate: Say the Titans have the game in hand, but Seattle has the ball late. Should Fisher consider softening up on defense, to increase the chances his offense gets the ball back to enhance Johnson's record chase? I don’t think he would.

Some notable guys who’ve been long-term presences, influential players or both could be playing their last game for their teams Sunday. Another round of a contract disputes with Dunta Robinson could prompt the Texans not to tag him and allow him unrestricted free agency. Brad Meester has served the Jaguars well for nine seasons, but it’s probably time to go younger at center in Jacksonville. Jevon Kearse’s second go-round with the Titans was pretty non-descript, but he’s a popular personality.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Falling

1. Jaguars pass defense: Free safety Reggie Nelson was benched in favor of Anthony Smith, but that was hardly a shake-up that produced a big effect. A combination of a toothless rush and loose coverage helped assure the Jaguars dropped to 7-8 in New England.

Tom Brady completed 23 of 26 passes for 267 yards and four touchdowns. Randy Moss ran open for big plays and Wes Welker caught all 13 balls that came his way. The Jaguars were not credited with a quarterback hit, let alone a sack.

2. Jim Caldwell, Colts coach: His team's bizarre Sunday surrender against the Jets shines a bright spotlight on Indianapolis’ first-year coach. Caldwell made all the right moves in winning his first 14 games, and his team needs to believe this was a correct one for the long term, even if it hurt in the present.

Not trying doesn’t seem to benefit the team in anyone’s eyes, and what if they don’t win that Super Bowl? Won’t we point back at the Jets game as a spot where the possibility crept into the Colts’ consciousness?

3. Vince Young, Titans QB: The finale in Seattle is a big game for Young, who surely wants to head into the offseason feeling better about his game than he did after a miserable performance against San Diego on Christmas night.

He completed 38 percent of his passes for 89 yards, nothing longer than 15, with two interceptions, no TDs and an 11.9 passer rating. As good as Young's been since taking over for Kerry Collins, a performance like that showed why some still might have doubts.

Rising

1. Chris Johnson, Titans RB: The Chargers did great work against the Titans, and still Johnson managed 142 rushing yards and another 37 receiving. While his touches have increased, he’s shown no signs of wearing down.

On a Sunday when six games involving at least one AFC team have playoff implications, Titans-at-Seahawks won’t be one of them. Still, the game will draw a lot of interest. Johnson’s got a shot at becoming the sixth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season (he needs 128 yards). He needs just 75 yards from scrimmage to eclipse Marshall Faulk's single-season record in that category (2,429 yards in 1999). Johnson needs 234 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (2,105 yards in 1984).

2. Brian Cushing, Texans OLB: The rookie is nicked up, but you can’t really see it on Sundays. Against Miami he didn’t play like a beat-up, worn-down first-year player. He played like Houston’s best defender.

Game statisticians gave him nine tackles to go with his sack and interception. He showcased the versatile game that made him the guy the Texans spent the 15th pick in the draft on.

3. Arian Foster, Texans RB: We’ve crushed the Texans for their failures in the run game, so Foster deserves credit for making the most of his chance in a crucial game against Miami. Nineteen carries for 97 yards, a 5.1-yard average and a touchdown amounted to a fine day.

Odds are the Texans will be forced to run in order to beat the Patriots Sunday. Foster should be first in line for carries in that scenario and beyond if the Texans earn a playoff berth.

Two great notes from the NFL out of the Colts' win at Baltimore Sunday:

• Peyton Manning passed for 299 yards in the Colts’ 17-15 victory at Baltimore. He has 3,171 passing yards this year and has now thrown for at least 3,000 yards in 12 consecutive seasons, the most in NFL history.
• Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne combined for eight catches. Wayne (76) and Clark (65) have combined for 141 receptions, the most by a pair of teammates in the first 10 games of a season in NFL history. UPDATE: Later on Sunday, the New England Patriots wide receiver combo of Wes Welker (79) and Randy Moss (63) combined for 20 catches in a 31-14 win over the New York Jets, giving the pair 142 combined receptions through 10 games to surpass the hours-old record set earlier in the day by Wayne-Clark.

Now, as we’ve come to expect, quality situational review from ESPN Stats & Information on Manning.

Manning was held to just an 85.3 overall passer rating Sunday at Baltimore, but he did great when the Ravens rushed aggressively, as they like to do.

Entering Sunday, the Ravens had brought an overload pressure or blitz (six or more pass rushers, at least one from the secondary) on 12.1 percent of opposing pass attempts.

Baltimore brought an overload on 16.1 percent of Peyton Manning's pass attempts, with disastrous results.

Most quarterbacks get worse in the red zone, where pressure rises and space shrinks. But Manning kept up a season-long trend of playing with extra precision once the Colts moved inside their opponents’ 20-yard line. Manning had 10 TDs and 1 interception in the red zone coming into Sunday.

The Ravens were able to keep the score close despite a poor offensive showing partly because of Manning's ineffectiveness when using play action. Entering Week 11, Manning had the fifth-highest passer rating on play action passes with a minimum of 20 attempts.

That’s really remarkable when you consider that the Colts don’t generally run the ball very well, which means players in the secondary should be less prone to bite on play-action against the league’s best quarterback.

One more note of interest:

Dallas Clark lined up detached from the line of scrimmage on 31 of Indianapolis' 56 offensive plays. Clark's only reception of the day was a one-handed grab in the end zone. But even if Manning wasn’t hitting Clark, he operated much more effectively when Clark was out wide.

Manning completed 14 of 18 passes for 220 yards, a TD and a 136.1 passer rating with Clark wide.

With Clark tight, Manning was eight of 13 for 79 yards, two interceptions and a 39.1 passer rating.

INDIANAPOLIS -- T.J. Rushing was all set. The Colts don’t boast much of a return team and he had fair caught three of the balls off Chris Hanson’s foot, allowing the other to be downed. Now, he’d get one more chance.

With a fourth-and-2 from the Patriots' 28-yard line, he was ready to line up and hoping he wouldn’t have to wave before catching punt No. 5.

“I think I was going to line up at the 25-yard line, about 45 yards away from him, because he was hitting them pretty good today, so I was hoping he out-kicked his coverage,” Rushing said. “Third-down stop, I got excited because I thought I was going to get a chance to make a play.

“I ran out on the field, I saw [Tom] Brady still out on the field, and I was like, ‘What is happening?’ They’re on their own end of the field, there is no way they are going to go for it.”

What was happening was Patriots coach Bill Belichick was deciding on an all-or-nothing gamble. He sent his offense back on the field to get the first down, to end the game with a gain of six feet with 2:08 left on the clock.

“That was like a video-game play,” Rushing said. “You’re playing your buddy and you’re like, ‘I’m just going to go for it.’ I guess they figured no matter what, if the offense got the ball back, we were going to win. That’s the only thing I can think of.”

Strong safety Melvin Bullitt lined up on running back Kevin Faulk with a mentality much like Rushing’s. He was going to make the game-swinging play. Defensive backs coach Alan Williams had told his guys all week in a fourth-down situation like this one, the Patriots would go to Wes Welker or Faulk.

Brady took a shotgun snap and threw to Faulk on the right. Bullitt was right there, wrapping up Faulk and taking him down for a 1-yard gain. Colts’ ball, and, four plays later, Colts’ game, 35-34, after a Peyton Manning-to-Reggie Wayne touchdown.

In showing confidence in his offense, Belichick set off an inadvertent side effect.

The Colts' defense was offended by the boldness.

“I was thinking, ‘Man, they’re going to try us like that? They’re going to disrespect us like that?' ” linebacker Philip Wheeler said. “We’ve got to stop them. We’ve got to man up. And we did that. Maybe it wasn’t disrespectful, maybe it was the smartest thing they could think of to do. I think we handled our business when they did it.”

“We just felt as though, that was a slap in the face,” free safety Antoine Bethea said. “Fourth down, in their territory? That was just a smack in the face. But the defense, we stood up and made a big play.”

Former Colts coach Tony Dungy, on NBC’s postgame show, questioned the logic.

“You have to punt the ball in that situation,” Dungy said. “As much as you might respect Peyton Manning, you have to play the percentages and punt the ball.”

The Colts (9-0) needed Belichick’s bailout plan because they’d played a game lacking their typical crispness and efficiency.

The fierce pass rush was stonewalled, the secondary toasted for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns by Randy Moss. The offense stumbled, with rhythm issues and drops.

Pierre Garcon was targeted 11 times, and while all those throws from Manning were hardly perfect, he pulled in only three of them. He didn’t think his 29-yard touchdown catch offset the errors. Rookie Austin Collie booted at least one pass too. Manning even threw a wobbly duck for one of his two picks.

“There were a lot of things,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell said. “One of the things we certainly can’t do is give up big plays and early on there Moss was kind of having his way with us I think. … You get him where he’s even with you and Brady’s not going to miss him. He puts that ball right on the money.

“Then we had penalties that set us back a little bit and dropped passes. So there are a lot of things for us to work on. It’s great to get a victory when maybe you didn’t play as well as you’re capable of.”

The Colts’ best work may have come on the play that produced the decisive points.

Earlier, Manning had looked unsuccessfully for Wayne on a fade in the left side of the end zone. From the 1-yard line with 16 seconds left, Manning was looking to try it again.

“I gave him my C.C. Sabathia shake off,” Wayne said. “I felt like I wanted to show fade and just come with the slant and it worked. [It was] at the line of scrimmage. You’ve got to be quick with it. You’ve got to shake him off and go on to the next call. I shook him off and I gave him the signal. I think after nine years he can trust me.”

The tired Colts shrugged after it was all over as they considered just how it unfolded.

“That’s the craziest win I’ve ever been involved in,” Bullitt said. “They’re bold. We never expected anything less.”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky

In the category of running past people, Randy Moss outpoints Reggie Wayne.

But that hasn’t done much to separate the two receivers, who will be central figures in Sunday night’s Patriots-Colts game, in terms of what they’ve done on deep balls this season.

According to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information, the two have fared about the same when their quarterback has thrown the ball 15 yards or more in their directions.

Wayne vs. Moss: Passes thrown 15+ yards, 2009 Wayne Moss Rec-att 12-28 13-28 Rec yards 264 327 Yds per rec 22.0 25.2 TD 3 2

While they may be similar on long stuff, they’ve been different in blitzing situations.

Of Wayne’s six touchdown catches, none have come when the defense sent five or more pass-rushers, while Moss has four of his five touchdown catches in such situations.

The two are tied for fifth (with Justin Gage) for targets on third down.

Receivers targeted on third down Player Tgts Rec Yds Avg TD Reggie Wayne 23 16 192 12.0 0 Randy Moss 23 14 183 13.1 3 Justin Gage 23 6 65 10.8 0

The biggest storyline involving the receivers could revolve around the defensive backs. Moss and Wes Welker will be working against rookies who've fared very well so far in Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey.

"They’re not quite seasoned, but I wouldn’t consider them rookies either," Jim Caldwell said of his starting corners in his Wednesday media session. "We also don’t look at them that way, just in terms of how we expect them to play and perform. We don’t allow them to make any excuses because of inexperience. They study, they prepare like everyone else. We hold them to a standard, in terms of what we expect from them, and they measure up to it. They have been improving week by week. They have the kind of attitude that I think is important. They study hard. They work extremely hard, and they’re mature as well."

"I think those things do indeed help. But, let me say this, every week is a brand new challenge. This week there is a huge challenge, in terms of covering maybe one of the best wide receivers in all of football in Randy Moss and Welker on the inside. Every week they have to prove themselves over again. Regardless of what they’ve done previously, this week is a brand new week. We have to get ready for maybe one of the best corps of wide receivers that we’ll see, and couple that with an outstanding quarterback who is a cut above. They have their work cut out for them. It’ll be a challenge.”

Experience isn't everything, obviously. But the four starters in New England's secondary have 28 years of it, with 20 between corners Sean Springs and Leigh Bodden.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky

What I think they are thinking in the headquarters of the four AFC South teams this afternoon…

Houston Texans

Our coach has said multiple times that we’ve got to be good enough to make a yard when it counts, yet we failed again. We had the chances we needed in Arizona and we couldn’t take advantage of them and we say that on far too many Mondays around here. We’re always close to breaking through, but never really do it. And at some point, no matter how much guys are trying to look in the mirror, they will look to the coach and his staff too and wonder, “Is this really working?” It’s part of their job this week to convince us, again, to stay the course, because the results of all this hard work will come and we’ll get on a roll and be in the mix, yada yada yada. But do we believe it anymore. Can we believe it anymore? Isn’t it getting harder and harder?

Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning has concentrated, when complimenting Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie, on including a joke about keeping them from getting a big head too early. We need to do that on a larger scale, but there really isn’t a big concern around here about us getting too happy with ourselves, because Bill Polian, Jim Caldwell and the staff and Manning and the other veteran leaders won’t allow it. Also assisting us keeping things in context: While we’ve been precise, efficient and deadly, we’ve not beaten a team that currently has a winning record. Our opponents are a combined 7-16 (.304). The teams we still play currently include five with winning records, and while they aren’t world-beaters, they are winning at a .444 clip. We’ll continue to improve, we’ll continue to get healthy people back and we’ll be a team no one looks forward to facing no matter how well they are faring.

Jacksonville Jaguars

One thing you learn in a rebuilding season is how your group of guys to reacts to a variety of situations. Here’s one you wish you didn’t get to see, but that you hope gets looked back on one day as a character builder. There are all sorts of problems we need to iron out from that disaster in Seattle, but first among them is the pass pressure on both sides. We have to generate more and allow less. And on the allowing less front it means continuing to tinker with the offensive line, trying to accelerate the growth of the kid tackles and getting our quarterback not to hold the ball so long. These guys need to see steady, so Jack Del Rio and his staff have to work hard this week to show them steady, to bring some life and energy to the office, to put a sound plan into place for St. Louis and to get to 3-3 Sunday against a team we are better than. We don’t want to do a lot of looking ahead, but with what we’ve got coming we could get to December at 6-5 or 7-4.

Tennessee Titans

Well, we had no excuse for 0-4. We can try to blame 0-5 on cornerback injuries and that will be handy if Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss pick up apart in New England this week too, right? Of course it doesn’t get us off the hook for our failure to bring in a sufficient veteran defensive back or two who could play reasonably well for us if something happened to Vincent Fuller or Cortland Finnegan or Nick Harper, or God forbid, all three. So once again while we preach how we don’t put players in position to do thing they can’t, we’re going to ask raw rookies Jason McCourty and Ryan Mouton to face a Hall of Fame quarterback. OK, now for what we can spin positive in house. We can grumble about those two roughing the passer calls, those set up the Colts for that big score right before the half. We can say sitting Jevon Kearse showed a willingness to shake things up. We can expand an us-against-the-world mentality and talk about how no one believes in us. And some players will eat that up without asking, “Why is it anyone, including us, should believe in us?”