The impact of Rivers' fumble

November, 1, 2011
11/01/11
4:00
PM ET
Philip Rivers' fumbled snap from center Nick Hardwick on Monday night was the first miscue the two ever had since Rivers become the starter in 2006. It came at a horrible time. The fumble in the final minute came with the Chargers preparing for a chip-shot field goal to beat the Chiefs. In the end, it was Kansas City that won, 23-20, in overtime.

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability calculations based on 10 years of historical NFL play-by-play data, it shows how much the bad snap affected the Chargers on Monday night. The Chargers had a 91.2 percent chance of winning the game before the fumble and just a 46.1 percent after the Chiefs recovered the botched snap.

Rivers’ fumble had the largest impact of any aborted snap in the NFL since 2008. Here is a list of the top five botched snaps in that time span in terms of the impact they had on win probability.

1. Oct. 31, 2011: Philip Rivers (S.D.) fumbled on first-and-10 from the K.C. 15-yard line with the score tied at 1:03 in the fourth quarter.

S.D. Win Probability Before Play: 91.2%

S.D. Win Probability After Play: 46.1%

S.D. Change in Probability Prob: -45.1%

2. Jan. 2, 2011: Kerry Collins (TEN) fumbled on second-and-7 from the Indianapolis 34-yard line with the score tied at 1:30 left in fourth quarter.

TEN Win Probability Before Play: 75.3%

TEN Win Probability After Play: 32.6%

TEN Change in Win Probability: -42.8%

3. Oct. 9, 2011: Blaine Gabbert (JAX) fumbled on third-and-1 from the Jacksonville 42, trailing by 3 with 1:19 left in the fourth quarter.

JAX Win Probability Before Play: 36.9%

JAX Win Probability After Play: 0.9%

JAX Change in Win Probability: -36.0%

4. Dec. 12, 2010: Josh Freeman (TB) aborted a snap on first-and-goal from the Washington 1-yard line, leading by 1 with 13:18 left in the fourth quarter (resulted in touchback).

TB Win Probability Before Play: 72.8%

TB Win Probability After Play: 40.0%

TB Change in Win Probability: -32.8%

5. Jan. 3, 2009: Matt Ryan (ATL) aborted a snap on second-and-7 from the Atlanta 30, leading by 3 with 14:17 left in the third quarter (returned for touchdown).

ATL Win Probability Before Play: 60.4%

ATL Win Probability After Play: 33.1%

ATL Change in Win Probability: -27.3%

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