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Monday, November 26, 2012
AFC West playoff scenarios

By Bill Williamson

The AFC West title comes down to this: If the Denver Broncos (8-3) win one more game or if the San Diego Chargers (4-7) lose one more, Denver will win the division.

The Oakland Raiders (3-8) have already been eliminated and the Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) are of course out. The Chiefs are on pace for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

This has all been confirmed through the Elias Sports Bureau. Here is its breakdown:

Denver clinches AFC West with a win against Tampa Bay or a San Diego loss against Cincinnati on Sunday. If both Denver and San Diego finish 8-8, the Broncos own the tiebreaker due to a head-to-head sweep.

Oakland is now eliminated from winning the division. If both Denver and Oakland finished 8-8, they would split the head-to-head matchup and would be tied with 4-2 division records. But Denver has a better record against common opponents (7-5 to 6-6). This is the next tiebreaker for division the, followed by conference record.

If there is a three-way tie between Denver, San Diego and Oakland, Denver would hold the tiebreaker because of the better to head-to-head record.