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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Broncos in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): Peyton Manning takes a 2011 playoff team to the Super Bowl, which the Broncos win, of course. I find this scenario to be unlikely, but it is possible -- because I won’t doubt the greatness of Manning. For this to occur, Manning’s new teammates will have to quickly adapt to an offense that is extremely different than what they ran with Tim Tebow behind center. But of course, Manning will be orchestrating it and can get an awful lot of out his teammates. The Broncos’ run defense improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011. They did lose their best run defender in Brodrick Bunkley, but if they can overcome that loss and remain strong in this department it will go a long way toward getting opposing offenses into third-and-long situations. Denver’s pass-rushing duo of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, along with what looks like a vastly improved set of cornerbacks, could make things very difficult on opposing passing games. All of this plays well into the hands of the offense and Manning. Also, unlike the Manning years in Indianapolis, the Broncos were exceptional overall on special teams last season. There is no reason that shouldn’t keep up. Denver has quickly built this team around Manning, and to win now.

Nightmare scenario (4-12): Of course, the huge nightmare scenario for Denver is if Manning takes a big hit early in the season and is sidelined. As great as Manning has supposedly looked during his recovery process, taking big hits is the true test of this elder statesman’s health. As I alluded to above, I have some doubts as to how well the holdover Denver offensive players will adapt to the Manning way of playing offense. It will be like going from "The Flintstones" to "The Jetsons." The offensive line is the spot that worries me most in this drastic transition. The offense now requires the linemen to be athletic, move in unison, excel with the mental aspects of the position and be on the same page as Manning with all of his pre-snap adjustments. As is also the case with the receiver routes and adjustments, all of these drastic adjustments will take a lot of time and a ton of practice and game repetitions. Defensively, the loss of Bunkley does loom large, and the middle of this defense could be vulnerable. Also, the Broncos could really use one more pass-rush threat to step up. Denver will play a first-place schedule, with half of its games against the AFC North and NFC South, which seems very daunting. The rest of the division really fought injury problems in 2011; the Broncos remained quite fortunate on that front. If it goes bad in Denver this season, it might go really bad … like 4-12 bad.

Denver Broncos

Cornerback Tracy Porter, whose pick-six sealed the New Orleans Saints' Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Indianapolis Colts, hasn't gotten around to talking trash to new Denver teammate Peyton Manning, the man who threw that ball. "I think once we finally get settled in we'll have enough time to shoot that little joke in," Porter told USA Today. "As of right now, we're both still learning."

The Broncos' trade of backup cornerback Cassius Vaughn to Indianapolis for little-used fullback Chris Gronkowski is most significant for the fact that it's Matt Russell's first trade since taking over as director of player personnel, Mike Klis notes.

Defensive end Elvis Dumervil is "more in shape" than at this point last year, he tells the Broncos' official site, and credits the team's strength coach and a new nutrition plan.

After a Pro Bowl rookie season, Broncos linebacker Von Miller landed the Denver Athletic Club's Colorado Athlete of the Year award.

Kansas City Chiefs

Coach Romeo Crennel, who grew up in a military family, and linebacker Caleb Campbell, a West Point grad who holds the rank of lieutenant in the U.S. Army, were among a Chiefs contingent that visited a junior high school at nearby Fort Leavenworth.

Oakland Raiders

With more talent on his side of the ball than on defense, new Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is going to need to keep the unit humming and take some pressure off Dennis Allen's defense, Mark Purdy writes in the San Jose Mercury News.

Mike Goodson, an offseason trade acquisition from Carolina, is making an impression with coaches in his quest to win the backup running back job.

San Diego Chargers

General manager A.J. Smith laughed off Las Vegas picking the Chargers to finish second in the division, behind Denver. "I couldn't care less about predictions," Smith told U-T San Diego on Wednesday. "It's fun to do, and it stimulates conversation."

Coach Norv Turner told season-ticket holders during a conference call that he'll lean "heavily" on special-teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia this season after Bisaccia was given the title of assistant head coach.

Did the Broncos improve enough on defense?

Yes, it’s all about Peyton Manning in Denver. If the quarterback is healthy, the Broncos should score a lot of points and be in position to win a lot of games.

But if the Broncos are going to be a true contender in the AFC, they must improve on defense. Denver made solid strides last season on defense -- it went from No. 32 to No. 20 in total defense. Still, improvements are needed heading into 2012.

The Broncos went into the draft with a hole in the defensive front. They added Cincinnati defensive tackle Derek Wolfe in the second round and Tennessee defensive end Malik Jackson. He is versatile, but he is expected to play at end. Both players are expected to step into the defensive line rotation.

The Broncos tried to improve all layers of the defense this offseason, and they are better. The pass-rushing duo of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil gives Denver a tremendous advantage. It doesn’t need to be great on defense, but it has to be better.

The draft picks of Wolfe and Jackson should help.

The tremendous folks at ESPN Stats & Information have passed along some key statistics for each NFL team as we prepare for the draft. Let’s review some of the findings:

Denver:

Here is one of the reasons why the Broncos’ greatest need is at defensive tackle. Denver had just four sacks from its interior defensive line, all from Ryan McBean, a free agent who is fighting a six-game NFL suspension. Of the 4-3 defenses in the NFL, only Seattle had fewer sacks from the defensive tackle position. It is a good thing the Broncos have a dynamic pass-rushing presence from Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

Kansas City:

Here is a reason why the Chiefs should consider drafting Stanford’s David DeCastro and playing him at right guard. The Chiefs ran well to the left last season, but struggled running on the right side. They addressed the issue by signing right tackle Eric Winston, considered one of the best at his position. Adding DeCastro, considered one of the premier guard prospects in the past several years, would further help. Kansas City ranked seventh in the NFL running to the left in 2011, but was ranked 32nd up the middle and 31st to the right side.

Oakland:

Oakland cornerbacks had 27 pass disruptions or interceptions last season, which was tied for 21st in the NFL. Fifteen of those big plays came from Stanford Routt, who is now in Kansas City after being a salary-cap dump in Oakland. More cornerback talent may be necessary even though the Raiders signed projected starters Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer to one-year deals.

San Diego:

The Chargers rushed four or fewer defenders on 77.5 percent of opposing quarterback drop backs last season. It was the fifth highest in the NFL. However, only Antwan Barnes had success, with nine sacks. The Chargers desperately need another impact pass-rusher.

Few people are more qualified to speak on the subject of Peyton Manning than Bill Polian.

He drafted Manning in Indianapolis in 1998 and was the Indianapolis Colts' vice chairman until earlier this year. Polian is now an ESPN analyst, and I caught up with him to discuss Manning’s pending signing in Denver. Here are some of the subjects he hit:

On the fit: “I think it’s a good fit. It’s a football-only ownership, a great town. The Broncos have a good defense with two good pass-rushers in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. They run the ball well with a good offensive line, and I like their receivers. They could use an upgrade at running back and receiver, but that is easy to do.”

On the Broncos’ chances of winning the division in 2012: “It’s a winnable division, and Peyton does make them better. Peyton makes them a viable contender.”

On the importance of Denver coach John Fox: “I think that is an understated aspect of this fit. John is a sound, very solid football coach. He will have a sound running game and he has the making of a really good defense. John is a very vital cog in this wheel.”

On whether he thinks some former Colts could join Manning in Denver: “[Tight end Jacob] Tamme is a real good fit, and Dallas Clark could be as well. I like Joseph Addai as a fit there, too, but he is not an every-down player anymore, but he doesn’t have to be there. Maybe Jeff Saturday would interest them, but I do already like their line.”

NFL Network is reporting that the Denver Broncos and the Tennessee Titans are not just competing for Peyton Manning, but also for Atlanta pass-rusher John Abraham.

Abraham will turn 34 in May, but he can still be effective. He had 9.5 sacks last season. He is a consistent pass-rusher who has 112 sacks in 12 NFL seasons. He's reached double digits in sacks in three of the past five seasons.

Adding Abraham to a pass rush that includes Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil would give Denver one of the very best pass rushes in the NFL.

In other AFC West news:

NFL Network is reporting the 49ers will sign Oakland special-teams ace Rock Cartwright, pending a physical. Cartwright was a pivotal part of the Raiders’ locker room. The loss would sting some.

In addition to visiting with former St. Louis cornerback Ronald Bartell on Thursday, the Raiders are showing a lot of interest in New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter. That makes total sense. He played for new Oakland head coach Dennis Allen in New Orleans. Porter is visiting Cincinnati. Expect the Raiders to express interest in several cornerbacks. It’s their biggest need area.

Let’s wrap up the 2011 AFC West season by giving our annual awards:

MVP: Denver running back Willis McGahee

He was the best player on the surprise division champions. Denver’s running game was ranked first in the NFL and the biggest reason was the terrific season by the 30-year-old, who was one of the best free-agent signings of 2011. The Tim Tebow offense worked best when McGahee was leading the way. He finished the season with 1,199 yards on the ground and he showed great leadership.

Offensive player of the year: San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers

It wasn’t Rivers’ greatest season of his career, but he straightened out toward the end of the season and ended up putting up solid numbers. If Oakland running back Darren McFadden didn’t get hurt in October, when he was on his way to this honor (or perhaps the division MVP), he would have been serious candidate. But it goes to Rivers, whom I still believe is the best overall player in the division.

Defensive player of the year: Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson

He is one of the more underrated players in the NFL. He is a tackling machine and a timely playmaker. Johnson was brilliant in 2011 as he had a career-high 131 tackles. Along with fellow Pro Bowl linebacker Tamba Hali, Johnson is the centerpiece to a potentially standout defense.

Coach of the year: Denver coach John Fox

Fox made his impact felt immediately in Denver. A player’s coach, Fox’s easy personality was exactly what the team needed after the Josh McDaniels disaster. The Broncos went from 4-12 to 8-8 and winning the AFC West. Fox helped guide a defensive resurgence and he adjusted well to playing with Tebow. This is a growing program and Fox is a big reason why.

Comeback player of the year: Denver defensive end Elvis Dumervil

There were concerns that Dumervil would be rusty and unable to make an impact in Fox’s 4-3 defense. No worries. After overcoming several inquires early in the season, Dumervil finished strong and he ended up with 9.5 sacks. Dumervil missed all of the 2010 season with a pectoral injury. But he came back strong and teamed with rookie Von Miller to become one of the best pass-rushing pairs in the NFL.

Most improved player of the year: Oakland receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey

Heyward-Bey deserves a lot of credit for the progress he made in 2011. I think he was one of the most improved players in the NFL. After catching just 35 passes in his first 26 games, Heyward-Bey had 64 catches for 975 yards in 2011. He still showed he has some issues with dropped passes, but his strides were huge and he took over some games. I can’t wait to see if can continue to make big progress.

Offensive rookie of the year: Oakland guard Stefen Wisniewski

Wisniewski looked like he was a 10-year veteran as a rookie. He is a natural player who is both athletic and intelligent. Born to be a Raider as the nephew of former Raiders great offensive lineman and current assistant coach Steve Wisniewski, Stefen Wisniewski upheld his family name well. There were times in the season when he simply took over. He was a steal at the No. 48 overall pick.

Defensive rookie of the year: Denver linebacker Von Miller

This was an easy one. Miller won the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. The No. 2 overall pick in the draft was dominant before he broke his thumb in late November. He finished with 11.5 sacks. Miller needs to improve as a run-stopper, but he appears to have limitless potential and is already a team leader. Denver has to be thrilled with this pick.

Executive of the year: Denver’s John Elway

It’s early, but the results have been promising. Elway doesn’t seem to be one of those playing legends, front-office-disaster types. He has proven to be humble and hard working in his new role. Elway’s choice of Fox as coach was a winner and Denver had success in the draft and in free agency. No one expected Elway’s first year as Denver’s football leader ending up in the second round of the playoffs.

Specialist of the year: Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowski

This is a significant award because I believe this may be the premier special-teams division in football. Janikowski stuck out as the best specialist in a division of specialist stars. He opened the season in style by tying the NFL record with a 63-yard field goal in Week 1 at Denver and he showed great consistency all season. He is a true weapon.

The Oakland Raiders' search for a defensive coordinator trudges forward.

After striking out several times at the NFL level, new Oakland coach Dennis Allen is looking at the college ranks. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Allen is now considering Stanford co-defensive coordinator Jason Tarver for the post.

Allen has interviewed or has tried to interview five candidates. The Raiders asked for permission to talk to Green Bay Packers cornerbacks coach Joe Whitt, but apparently he will not be the hire.

Before going to Stanford last year, Tarver, 37, spent 10 years with the San Francisco 49ers in several roles. He was last the 49ers’ outside linebackers coach. Tarver also coaches the linebackers at Stanford in addition to his co-coordinator role.

In other AFC West news:

Baltimore center Matt Birk won the NFL Man of the year award. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers was a finalist for the award.

Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel is excited to play for new Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Cassel played for him in New England for two seasons. The Chiefs have said Cassel will have competition for the job. The hiring of Daboll should help Cassel.

Denver linebacker Elvis Dumervil received some votes for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award that went to Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford. Dumervil made the Pro Bowl in 2011 after missing all of 2010 with a pectoral injury.

There have been several changes to the AFC Pro Bowl team since the team was announced originally last month. Here is an updated list of AFC West players who will be playing in the game Sunday in Honolulu:

DENVER

CB Champ Bailey

LT Ryan Clady

S Brian Dawkins

LB Elvis Dumervil

RB Willis McGahee

LB Von Miller

KANSAS CITY

LB Tamba Hali

LB Derrick Johnson

OAKLAND

LS Jon Condo

K Sebastian Janikowski

P Shane Lechler

DL Richard Seymour

SAN DIEGO

TE Antonio Gates

WR Vincent Jackson

RB Ryan Mathews

QB Philip Rivers

S Eric Weddle

Here are three Oakland players who could be affected by the hiring of Denver defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach:


Michael Huff, defensive back: It was reported right after the season that the Raiders would move Huff from safety to cornerback. However, that was when Hue Jackson was the coach; all bets are off now. Allen was a standout safety at Texas A&M and was a secondary coach during his stint with the New Orleans Saints. I could see Huff staying at safety, but it will be interesting to see what Allen does with him.


Kamerion Wimbley, linebacker: Denver pass-rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil excelled under Allen. Wimbley has a lot of ability and he can take over games, but the Raiders need to see him do it more often than he did last season. Wimbley had seven sacks in 2011, but four of them came in one game at San Diego. It’s inexcusable that someone with Wimbley’s ability had sacks in just four games last season.


Rolando McClain, linebacker: Allen needs to take McClain under his wing. The No. 8 overall pick in 2010 has potential — but he has a long way to go to become a consistent player. McClain is not terrible, but he needs some good coaching and it will be worth Allen’s time to work with McClain.

It is fitting that Brian Dawkins’ final game could be played in Hawaii.


The Denver safety was named to the Pro Bowl on Thursday, replacing Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu because of an injury. It is Dawkins’ ninth Pro Bowl — tied with John Lynch for the second-most career Pro Bowl berths by a safety.

Expect Dawkins, 38, to try to play. He missed all but a quarter of Denver’s final five games because of a neck injury, but the injury has been improving steadily in the past few days. Dawkins, a potential Hall of Famer, wouldn’t have accepted the invitation if he wasn’t going to be cleared to play.

Dawkins told a Denver television station last weekend that he will consider retirement. He played the past three seasons with Denver and has been the team’s undisputed leader. Dawkins played well in 2011 when healthy, recording 51 tackles and three sacks.

Dawkins joins a strong Denver contingent — the team's most at the Pro Bowl since 2001 — for the Jan. 29 game in Honolulu. Running back Willis McGahee and tackle Ryan Clady were named to the team as injury replacements. Cornerback Champ Bailey, defensive end Elvis Dumervil and linebacker Von Miller are also representing the AFC West champions.

When the Pro Bowl team was announced, I listed Denver Broncos running back Willis McGahee as the player in the division that had the biggest beef for not being picked to play in Hawaii later this month.

Well, that problem has been solved.

The Broncos announced McGahee, who was a first alternate, will replace an injured Arian Foster on the AFC Pro Bowl team. Denver left tackle Ryan Clady, replacing the Miami Dolphins' Jake Long, will also join him.

Denver now has five players in the Pro Bowl. McGahee and Clady join Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.

McGahee’s selection to the Pro Bowl team puts a bow on a great season for the 30-year-old tailback who was one of the best free-agent signings in the NFL last summer. McGahee had 1,199 yards rushing and he was a key to the No. 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL. The Broncos set a franchise record for rushing yards in a season with 2,532 yards on the ground.

McGahee was tied with Foster for the NFL lead with seven 100-yard rushing games in 2011. This is McGahee’s second Pro Bowl selection.

According to the Broncos, Clady is the fifth offensive lineman in NFL history to start every game and make at least two Pro Bowls in his first four NFL seasons.

The 2011 Denver Broncos will not be remembered for their defense.

Let’s face it, the lasting memory, regardless of how this unexpected Rocky Mountain joy ride ends, will be of quarterback Tim Tebow. The six-game winning streak, the four overtime wins, the incredible and the abrupt ending to the wild-card win over Pittsburgh on Sunday will all turn back to Tebow. He is the cover boy for these Broncos.

Yet, there is no way this upstart franchise would still be playing if it wasn’t for an improved, tough-minded defense. Tebow may be the face of the 2011 Denver Broncos, but the defense is the heart.

If the Broncos have any chance of beating the New England Patriots in the AFC divisional playoff round Saturday, their defense will have to continue to show its growth. New England coach Bill Belichick knows a thing about defense and he knows Denver’s unit is capable of being a factor against his high-powered offense.

“Defensively, they’re fast. They have an excellent pass rush,” Belichick said this week. “They’re athletic inside, their linebackers blitz … They cover well. They have a good defensive team.”

Four months ago, just as it was unexpected that Denver would be one of the final eight teams alive in the playoffs, it was as unexpected that the Denver defense would inspire such words from one of the most renowned defensive minds in the game.

In 2010, Denver was ranked last in nearly every statistical defensive category and it was a major reason why the Broncos went 4-12 and earned the No. 2 pick in the draft. Since he took over as Denver’s football leader, Broncos’ legendary quarterback John Elway immediately focused on the other side of the ball to begin his reclamation project.

Ending a 16-year streak, Elway hired a defensive-minded head coach in highly-respected John Fox after the Broncos were led by offensive minds Mike Shanahan and Josh McDaniels. Piggybacking on the Fox hire, Elway’s first draft pick was outside linebacker Von Miller, a player Elway hoped would become similar to Miller’s idol, Derrick Thomas, the man who sacked Elway more than any other defensive player ever.

The immense commitment to defense has worked out for Elway. Seventeen games into Fox’s tenure, the Broncos’ defense is considered above average. There is no doubt Fox and first-year defensive coordinator Dennis Allen have influenced this unit, and it's being recognized around the league.

The Denver defense was on display in a big way in the 29-23 upset win over Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. The Broncos dominated the game and harassed Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with five sacks. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Roethlisberger completed just 6 of 13 passes for 74 yards and was intercepted when Denver blitzed five or more defenders. Led by the dynamic pass-rushing combination of Miller and veteran Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos had 41 sacks in the regular season, the most it has had since 2000.

“We saw some things we felt like we could do well,” said Denver defensive end Robert Ayers, who was extremely active against the Steelers. “It’s the playoffs. There is no time for holding back.”

Denver’s defense has been consistent throughout the season. When the Broncos entered the playoffs on a three-game losing streak, it was Denver's offense that was most culpable. In a 40-14 loss at Buffalo in Week 16, the Bills had two defensive touchdowns and a special teams score. The Denver defense allowed one touchdown in the game. In a 7-3 Week 17 loss to Kansas City, the Denver defense allowed just one big play.

In a 41-23 loss to visiting New England in Week 15, Denver's defense had some moments. But the Broncos didn’t lose the game on defense. It lost because the offense blew a 16-7 lead with three fumbles in its territory in the second quarter that resulted in 13 direct points for New England. The defense simply couldn’t overcome the turnovers.

Still, according to ESPN Stats & Information, Denver may not have the same success blitzing against Tom Brady as it did against Roethlisberger if last month’s game is any indication. Brady was 10-of-12, gaining with an average of 14.3 yards per play, against a five or more-man blitz. Against four or fewer pass-rushers, Brady was just 13 of 22 with an average of 6.8 yards per play.

Regardless of the pass-rush packages, Ayers said the key is containing tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The pair has torched defenses all season, and Hernandez was particularly dangerous against Denver last month. Hernandez had nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown against Denver, while Gronkowski added four catches for 53 yards. That’s massive production from tight end.

“Up front, we have to be able to get some pass rush and not let [our secondary] sit back there for long,” Ayers said. “I think Brady... he got a little bit comfortable a couple of times. We don’t want to let that happen. We don’t want to leave those guys on an island too long. … It’s going to take a complete team effort -- offense, defense, special teams -- and we know that.”

If the defense's effort all season has been any indication, the Broncos should feel comfortable their unit will come to play and continue to show it is no longer the weak link.

Denver long snapper Lonie Paxson missed his second straight day of practice because of what Denver coach John Fox described as a family matter.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family,” Fox told reporters in Denver. “He’ll be day to day just like all of our injuries.”

Guard Russ Hochstein would likely be the long snapper for Saturday night’s divisional playoff game at New England if Paxson can’t play, especially if the weather is bad.

Meanwhile, as expected, safety Brian Dawkins (neck) and receiver Eric Decker (knee) did not practice Thursday. It would be a surprise if either player plays Saturday night. Denver pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil was limited for the second straight day with an ankle injury.

In other AFC West news:

Kansas City coach Romeo Crennel said on Sirius radio with Rich Gannon that he will not relinquish his defensive play-calling duties. That has been expected.

Chris Sprow thinks the 49ers’ Justin Smith would be a good fit in San Diego. In an Insider piece, Scouts Inc. thinks Oklahoma pass-rusher Ronnel Lewis could fit with the Chargers. San Diego is sure to try to add a pass-rusher this offseason.

Denver safety Brian Dawkins remained out of practice with a nagging neck injury.

It has been bothering him for several weeks. He did not play Sunday against Pittsburgh and it may be a long shot that he plays Saturday against New England.

Also, as expected, receiver Eric Decker did not practice. He reportedly has a knee strain. He is not expected to play. Denver long-snapper Lonie Paxton did not practice because of personal reasons.

Defensive end Elvis Dumervil was limited by an ankle injury. He is a defensive key, so if he is limited Saturday night, it could adversely affect the Broncos. Harassing New England quarterback Tom Brady is a must for Denver and Dumervil is an integral part of Denver’s pass rush.