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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Chargers in 2012.

Dream scenario (10-6): Although Philip Rivers had a very down 2011 by his fantastic track record, the Chargers still threw the ball effectively and should once again in 2012. Even though Vincent Jackson is in Tampa Bay, Antonio Gates is healthy and San Diego has enough at wide receiver, including better slot options, to allow for Rivers to do what Rivers does best: sling it all over the field, especially deep. San Diego does look to be noticeably improved in the front seven. That could pay off huge in terms of improvement against the run and pass as well as generate more big plays. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Melvin Ingram ends up being the defensive rookie of the year as a versatile and explosive difference-maker. I am still a huge fan of Rivers and I believe that Ryan Mathews can be an elite running back to mix in with a noticeably improved defense. But what is the ceiling if all of this comes together? A divisional crown certainly is a possibility, but I still think San Diego -- even if everything goes right -- would be a step below the top teams in the NFL.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): What if Mathews gets hurt? In a dream scenario, Mathews could have as strong a season as any running back in the NFL. But his injury history is very troubling, the Chargers have very little behind him and their offensive line ranks among the worst in the league right now. The offensive line could be the downfall of the entire team and could easily lead to injuries to the Chargers’ most important players, Rivers and Mathews. And Rivers must cut down on the interceptions. Also, how much do we really trust Gates to return to his previously amazing form for an entire season? Remember, the defense did take a big step backward last year, and it wasn’t all that long ago that the Chargers were unbelievably awful on special teams. What if glimmers of that ineptitude resurface? The worst-case scenario of 6-10 wouldn’t bode well for Norv Turner’s job.

San Diego coach Norv Turner is thrilled about the addition of former Kansas City fullback Le’Ron McClain to the Chargers’ backfield.

“The guy I’m really excited that we added in the offseason is Le’Ron McClain, because he’s a very versatile player and he’s a big old-school fullback,” Turner said in a radio interview. “But he’s a good runner, he’s got good catching skills and I think he’ll be a big addition.”

It has to make you wonder if the Chargers feel set at running back. McClain had a total of 89 carries in the past three seasons combined with the Chiefs and Ravens. In 2008 with Baltimore, McClain had 902 yards on 232 carries.

With McClain as an option along with starter Ryan Mathews, Curtis Brinkley and rookie Edwin Baker, the Chargers may feel fine at running back. They looked at backup running backs prior to the draft, but they haven’t pursued many running backs in the past few weeks.

Perhaps Turner’s comments on McClain indicate he could have a big role.

After showing signs in 2011 that he was capable of having a solid career, Oakland receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey reportedly has been charged with drunken driving.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported that Heyward-Bey was arrested last month on the Bay Bridge and was charged Wednesday with drunken driving stemming from the April 7 incident. He has a May 31 court date.

It is Heyward-Bey’s first known legal trouble since entering the NFL three years ago. He likely will not face an NFL suspension if convicted, but he is subject to being entered in the league’s substance abuse program.

Heyward-Bey, 25, had a solid season in 2011, catching 64 passes for 975 yards after struggling badly in his first two NFL seasons. Heyward-Bey was the No. 7 overall draft pick in 2009.

In other AFC West news:

In an Insider piece, ESPN analyst Bill Polian writes that San Diego running back Ryan Mathews is one of the players most pivotal to his team’s success.

Former Oakland star receiver Fred Biletnikoff will consult on football operations on the advisory board for the relaunched USFL.

In March, we ranked the AFC West quarterbacks after the arrival of Peyton Manning in the division. We are continuing our post-draft tradition of ranking the positions every Monday. Today, we’re look at the tailbacks.

Here are the guidelines: My rankings are based on past play and projected 2012 performances and roles. Rookies are eligible. I only rank players who I am sure will have a role. If I think a third stringer is worthy, I’ll list him. If I don’t think a second stringer is worthy, I won’t list him.

1. Darren McFadden, Oakland: This was a tough choice between McFadden and Jamaal Charles. I went with McFadden because he played more last season and his foot injury was less serious than Charles' knee injury. When healthy, McFadden is a game changer but he has to show durability.

2. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City: I think Charles will come back from his torn ACL. If he still has the same game-breaking speed, the Chiefs will be in great shape.

3. Willis McGahee, Denver: McGahee was my division MVP last season. He will turn 31 this season and he was dinged up last season. I think McGahee can still be very effective if he gets some help. He is a tough player.

4. Ryan Mathews, San Diego: Mathews is a good player and I expect him to be higher on this list next year. Entering his third year, Mathews could be a breakout player if he stays healthy and focused.

5. Peyton Hillis, Kansas City: He was an intriguing pickup in free agency. Hillis is a tough runner who will help the Chiefs.

6. Taiwan Jones, Oakland: I would like to see Oakland get a veteran running back and make Jones a change-of-pace option and not McFadden’s primary backup. I think Jones will be most effective that way.

7. Ronnie Hillman, Denver: He is a home-run hitter who could excel in Manning’s offense. I expect exciting things from this third-round pick.

8. Knowshon Moreno, Denver: I’m only putting Moreno here because he was a first-round pick three years ago. He is coming off a torn ACL and an arrest for drunk driving. He could surprise me, but I’m not expecting much.

Last week, we looked at some players from each team who could be affected by the draft. Let’s review now that the draft is over:

Denver, running back Willis McGahee

Why: He needs a backup.

Result: Denver drafted running back Ronnie Hillman at No. 67 and traded up 20 spots to get him. He is more of a change-of-pace guy and not a classic pounder. But Hillman will get his share of carries and help take pressure off of McGahee.

Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel

Why: He faced competition.

Result: Kansas City looked at several top quarterbacks, but they didn’t draft one. The same goes in free agency. Instead of replacing Cassel, Kansas City made a statement by building the roster around him. It is clear the Chiefs believe in Cassel.

Oakland, tight end David Ausberry

Why: He faced competition.

Result: The Raiders did not draft a tight end. They are thin at tight end and they could bring in a veteran. But Ausberry, a late-round pick last year, should get his chance to play.

San Diego, running back Ryan Mathews

Why: He needs a backup.

Result: The Chargers drafted the intriguing Edwin Baker in the seventh round. Baker slipped down the draft and he has potential. But I’m not sure he is ready to be a top backup. San Diego still might bring in a veteran.

Let’s look at one player on every AFC West roster who should be paying close attention when the draft begins Thursday:

Denver running back Willis McGahee: He will likely get a backfield partner early in the draft. McGahee is 30 and was nicked up a lot last season. He was fantastic, but will be best served if the Broncos get him some help.

Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel: The Chiefs have spent this offseason building around Cassel. Still, there is a chance Kansas City could take a quarterback early. If the Chiefs take Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill in the first round, Cassel’s future is Kansas City will be short. If the Chiefs bypass a quarterback in the early rounds, it’s a strong statement that Cassel is in the team’s long-term plans.

Oakland tight end David Ausberry: The Raiders like Ausberry, a second-year player, but they have also been scouting tight ends. Oakland not drafting one would be a clear sign that Ausberry will get every opportunity to play in 2012.

San Diego running back Ryan Mathews: He has seen Darren Sproles and Mike Tolbert leave via free agency in the past nine months; Mathews needs a quality backup and I think he will get one. Mathews is making great strides, but he has some durability issues -- making a strong backup a must.

The AFC West was the tightest division in the NFL in 2011.

The Broncos, Raiders and Chargers finished 8-8 with Denver prevailing as the division winner via a tiebreaker. Kansas City was a game behind at 7-9. The Chiefs were a blocked field goal attempt against Oakland in Week 16 away from winning the division.

Each team marches toward 2012 with hopes of winning the division. While there is still some work to do in terms of the draft, let’s play the “what if” game. Below is five ways each team in the division could win the AFC West in 2012 if certain things occur. Hat tip to the reader who suggested the idea:

Denver

If Peyton Manning is fully recovered from a neck injury that kept him out of the entire 2011 season: Manning’s health is the key to Denver’s entire season. The team and Manning think he will be fine. If he is, the Broncos will be in great shape.

If Demaryius Thomas develops into a true No. 1 receiver: The third-year player has potential and showed great flashes last season. Playing with Manning should spark his career.

If Denver gets a running mate for Willis McGahee: McGahee had a great season in 2011, but he was dinged up a lot and he needs some help. If Denver can draft a player such as Miami’s Lamar Miller, Boise State’s Doug Martin or Virginia Tech’s David Wilson in the second round, they should be in great shape.

If Denver improves at defensive tackle: The Broncos need some help at the position and it is their most pressing need. Watch for Denver to take a defensive tackle at No. 25 in the first round and that player needs to contribute right away.

If the change at defensive coordinator is smooth: With Dennis Allen now the head coach in Oakland, former Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio is Denver’s seventh defensive coordinator in the past seven seasons. This change could be seamless, though, because Del Rio has previously been a coordinator on John Fox’s staff, and Fox plays a major role as a defensive coach.

Kansas City

If quarterback Matt Cassel plays better than he did in 2011: Cassel took a step back last season after a strong 2010 season. Instead of replacing him, though, the Chiefs gave Cassel more weapons. He has everything a quarterback needs to succeed. Now, he has to be a success.

If the Chiefs’ injured stars are recovered from serious knee injuries: Running back Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and tight end Tony Moeaki all suffered torn ACL’s in September. All are expected back. If they are all fully recovered, the Chiefs should be fine.

If the Chiefs get an impact defender in the first round: The Chiefs have a strong defense, but they can use another stud. Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe or Boston College inside linebacker Luke Kuechly would both be solid fits.

If Stanford Routt fits in the defense: The Chiefs opted to sign former Oakland cornerback Stanford Routt and let Brandon Carr walk. Kansas City thinks Routt will flourish as the No. 2 cornerback next to Brandon Flowers. If Routt struggles, the defense will suffer.

If Romeo Crennel’s late influence is intact: Crennel went from the interim coach to the permanent coach because he sparked the Chiefs in the final three weeks of the season. His team played very hard for him and went 2-1. Let’s see if the good vibes continue.

Oakland

If quarterback Carson Palmer adjusts to the West Coast offense: Palmer is both trying to re-energize his career and adapt to playing in a West Coast offense. The Raiders and Palmer believe it is a good fit.

If receivers Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford continue to develop: I think these three players have showed flashes. If they continue to develop, the Raiders will have a lot of firepower.

If running back Darren McFadden can stay healthy: McFadden has missed a total of 19 games in four NFL season and at least three games in all four seasons. He missed the final nine games of last season with a foot injury. With backup Michael Bush now in Chicago and Oakland sporting young backups, it is imperative the special McFadden stays healthy as much as possible in 2012.

If the defensive front can stay healthy: The Raiders’ defensive line is their best aspect of a defense in transition. It must stay healthy and be an anchor to the unit.

If rookie coach Dennis Allen can have fast success: At 39, Allen, who has just one year of experience as a defensive coordinator, is the youngest head coach in the NFL. He must prove quickly that he is up to the task.

San Diego

If quarterback Philip Rivers can avoid the interception bug: He threw a career-high 20 interception in 2011. Rivers threw a total of 22 interceptions in the previous two seasons combined.

If running back Ryan Mathews can take the next step: San Diego coach Norv Turner recently said he expects Mathews to have a breakout season in 2012, his third in the NFL. He has shown flashes, but he needs to be more consistent.

If the receivers, as a unit, can make up for the loss of Vincent Jackson: The Chargers like their receiving crew even after Jackson signed with Tampa Bay. San Diego added Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal, and already has Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown. Jackson is a star and he will be missed, but the Chargers think they have made up for his loss by having a deeper rotation.

If the Chargers' defense can be better on third down: San Diego had the worst third-down defense in the NFL last season. Improving in that area is a point of emphasis for new defensive coordinator John Pagano.

If the Chargers can add an impact pass-rusher in the first round: The Chargers need a young pass-rusher to emerge. It will be their top priority with the No. 18 pick.

The San Diego Chargers could use a big, experienced backup running back.

Apparently, Ricky Williams would be willing to fill that role.

According to a tweet by Joe Madani, program director of Austin, Texas, radio station 103.1 FM, Williams said on the radio this week that he has filed his retirement papers, but he’d consider playing for his hometown Chargers.

Williams, who will turn 35 in May, retired from Baltimore after he ran for 444 yards on 108 carries in 2011. Should the Chargers be interested in pulling the cobwebs off of Williams?

I don’t think so.

Yes, he is big and he has plenty of experience, but I think the Chargers can find plenty of younger options. Counting on 35-year-old running backs is not a great way of doing business in the NFL. If Ryan Mathews, who has had some durability concerns, has to miss a month, would Williams really be the answer? He last started a game in 2009.

I just think the Chargers could do better. It would be a cool story to see Williams finish his storied career in San Diego, but I’d very much question if it makes good football sense for the Chargers.

Cap tip to the reader who alerted me of this tweet.

Even though the San Diego Chargers are looking for a backup running back to replace Mike Tolbert, who signed with Carolina, they may already have someone to carry part of the load for starter Ryan Mathews.

According to UT San Diego, Chargers’ coach Norv Turner said this week at the NFL owners meetings that fullback Le'Ron McClain could get more touches, regardless. He came over from Kansas City. McClain had 902 yards rushing in 2008, but he has had 89 carries combined in the three seasons since.

I think McClain is a tough, smart player who cans help San Diego’s ground game. Still, I think another reliable tailback needs to be brought in either in free agency or in the draft. Mathews is a potential star, but there have been some durability questions. Like the young Curtis Brinkley, but I would like to see someone else added. Perhaps a tailback such as Oregon’s LaMichael James in the middle rounds would be a good fit.

In other AFC West news:

In a radio interview, former Denver quarterback Jake Plummer -- who was seen throwing the ball in Denver on Monday -- reiterated he is staying retired. He retired five years ago.

The San Diego Chargers’ interest in Jackie Battle has taken the next step.

UT San Diego is reporting the Chargers are visiting with Battle on Tuesday. He would back up Ryan Mathews if signed.

The Chargers started focusing on Battle last week as a possible replacement for Mike Tolbert if he left in free agency. Tolbert signed a four-year deal with Carolina on Monday. Battle is a solid backup who likely fell out of the Chiefs’ plans when they signed Peyton Hillis last week.

In other AFC West news:

Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli was asked about the team’s pursuit of Manning. After losing out on Manning, Pioli deserves credit for giving his offense a big boost in the form of Hillis, tackle Eric Winston and tight end Kevin Boss. Matt Cassel remains the Chiefs’ quarterback and he got a lot of help.

As expected, former Oakland pass-rusher Kamerion Wimbley has agreed to terms with Tennessee. Oakland cut Wimbley in a salary-cap dump last week.

As expected, receiver Jerricho Cotchery is visiting the Chiefs on Tuesday. He would be a rotational receiver in Kansas City. He had 16 catches last season for Pittsburgh.

Rick Reilly looks at the Tim Tebow-John Elway relationship as it appears to be ending.

In a radio interview, Denver receiver Demaryius Thomas discusses the major change on the team.

In a radio interview, Broncos’ hall of famer Shannon Sharpe discusses Manning’s impact in Denver,

In a radio interview, Winston discusses the possibilities with his new team.

San Diego free-agent linebacker Everette Brown is going to visit with the Lions. There is little chance he will return to the Chargers.

UPDATE: The Raiders are reportedly one of the teams interested in Cincinnati defensive lineman Manny Lawson. I have talked to a source close to the situation and the Raiders are, indeed, one of several teams interested in Lawson. The process is expected to heat up in the next couple of days. There is no favorite team to land Lawson at this time.

He would be a rotational player in Oakland. One advantage Oakland could have is Lawson and new Oakland defensive coordinator Jason Tarver was in San Francisco together. Lawson has experience in both 4-3 and 3-4 schemes. The Raiders have not publicly said whether they will be a 4-3 or a 3-4 but new coach Dennis Allen has said the Raiders will use multiple fronts.

It was almost 12 hours ago when I first reported that San Diego Chargers running back Mike Tolbert has signed a four-year deal with the Carolina Panthers. I ended the short post by saying I would have more on the story later.

I should have indicated it would be much, much later. I guess I got sidetracked by another little story that developed in the AFC West.

Anyway, without further ado, here are some thoughts on Tolbert’s departure:

I don’t like it.

Last month, I wrote the Chargers couldn’t afford to lose another running back. Last year, they saw Darren Sproles go to New Orleans and he was missed. So will Tolbert.

He is a stud in short yardage, he has nice hands, he is a fine blocker, and he is great on special teams. Winning teams have players like Tolbert.

Ryan Mathews will need a new complement. Two names to keep an eye on are Kansas City’s Jackie Battle and Oakland’s Michael Bush. Bush is getting interest from the Bengals, Bears and Seahawks. Perhaps the Chargers will join the party. Other running backs available include Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai.

The Chargers will see a lot of familiar faces when they play the NFC South in 2012. They will see Tolbert and Sproles as they will see recently departed star receiver Vincent Jackson in Tampa Bay and will face former backup running back Michael Turner when they play the Falcons.

The Chargers' last real priority in-house free agent is defensive tackle Antonio Garay.

The San Diego Chargers may say goodbye to another running back.


Mike Tolbert is a free agent and there is a solid chance he could leave San Diego. The Chargers may make a play to keep him because he is so versatile. However, San Diego has other needs, and it could have trouble keeping Tolbert because several other teams may show interest and make it difficult for San Diego to keep the role player.

Denver and Kansas City could be among the several teams to make a play for Tolbert. I know Ryan Mathews is the Chargers’ starter and he has showed great signs of coming on, but I don’t think the Chargers can let Tolbert walk.

He is a threat as a runner, blocker, receiver and on special teams. He is one of the team’s toughest players and he is adored in the locker room.

It may not be prudent to lose a player like Tolbert a year after Darren Sproles left in free agency to New Orleans. The Chargers regretted letting Sproles go to New Orleans. He was sorely missed. Tolbert would be, too.

While Sproles was a threat to score every time he touched the ball as a runner and as a receiver, Tolbert brings a different element as Mathews’ backup. He’s a punishing runner and he’s solid in short-yardage situations. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry last season and had eight rushing touchdowns, while adding 54 catches.

The Chargers would have to go out and find a replacement for Tolbert if he walks. After seeing Michael Turner leave after the 2007 season and Sproles go last season, I think it’s time for the Chargers to do what it takes to keep a running back from running away in free agency.

There have been several changes to the AFC Pro Bowl team since the team was announced originally last month. Here is an updated list of AFC West players who will be playing in the game Sunday in Honolulu:

DENVER

CB Champ Bailey

LT Ryan Clady

S Brian Dawkins

LB Elvis Dumervil

RB Willis McGahee

LB Von Miller

KANSAS CITY

LB Tamba Hali

LB Derrick Johnson

OAKLAND

LS Jon Condo

K Sebastian Janikowski

P Shane Lechler

DL Richard Seymour

SAN DIEGO

TE Antonio Gates

WR Vincent Jackson

RB Ryan Mathews

QB Philip Rivers

S Eric Weddle

Philip Rivers will have two more familiar weapons at his disposal in the Pro Bowl on Sunday.

San Diego receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Ryan Mathews have been named to the AFC Pro Bowl team. Jackson replaces New England’s Wes Welker and Mathews is subbing for Baltimore’s Ray Rice.

Jackson had 60 catches for 1,106 yards and nine touchdowns. Mathews had 1,091 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

San Diego safety Eric Weddle and tight end Antonio Gates are also on the team. It will be interesting to see how many times Rivers, Mathews, Jackson and Gates will be on the field at the same.

Don’t expect any timing problems for the AFC Pro Bowl team in the kicking game.

This group will have plenty of chemistry.

The Raiders announced that long snapper Jon Condo made the AFC Pro Bowl team. The game will be played in Hawaii on Jan. 29.

Condo was added as a “need” player. Condo will be joined by Oakland punter Shane Lechler and Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowski. This is Janikowski's first Pro Bowl and Condo’s second. Condo is very reliable, and Lechler’s and Janikowski’s success is in part sparked by Condo. Condo is a fitting addition to the roster, and it shows what a special group of specialists Oakland has. Congratulations to all of them. They will be joined in Hawaii by Oakland defensive lineman Richard Seymour.

In other AFC West news:

The Arizona Republic is reporting that former Kansas City coach Todd Haley likely will not join the Cardinals’ staff. He has also talked to the Jets this offseason, but he is not expected to join the New York staff, either.

An Insider piece says AFC West receiver Jonathan Baldwin and Jacoby Ford could be in for good things in 2012.

Either Ryan Mathews or Vincent Jackson will be guaranteed a Pro Bowl spot based on the results of the AFC title game.