<
>

Three fearless game-day predictions for Ravens-Colts

10/4/2014

INDIANAPOLIS -- Here are three predictions that I guarantee (well, feel very strongly) will happen Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens (3-1) play the Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium:

1. The Ravens are going to give up at least two touchdown passes to Andrew Luck: The Ravens have the 24th-ranked pass defense, which is not what you want to have when facing the NFL's hottest quarterback. Luck has thrown 11 touchdown passes in his past three games. The Colts' offensive line is suspect, but the Ravens' defensive backs are a bigger question mark. Quarterbacks are completing nearly 80 percent of their passes when throwing against cornerback Asa Jackson and safeties Matt Elam and Darian Stewart.

2. Jacoby Jones will be a non-factor: His recent drops have bumped him from the No. 3 wide receiver spot. But teams still fear him as a return man, and the Colts are among the best in the NFL in playing keep-away. Pat McAfee leads the NFL with 24 touchbacks, so don't expect Jones to get his hands on any kickoffs. McAfee is also excellent at directional punting, which is why he leads the league with 45.6 yards net punting. That means Jones probably won't get any chances to bring back any punts.

3. Owen Daniels is going to score a touchdown: Daniels has been quiet recently after catching two touchdown passes in Week 2. He has only had five catches the past two games. But four of the seven touchdown passes allowed by the Colts have been scored by opposing tight ends. Denver's Julius Thomas, Philadelphia's Zach Ertz and Tennessee's Delanie Walker have each produced at least 84 yards receiving against Indianapolis as well. In terms of fantasy football, the Colts have allowed the second-most points to tight ends in the NFL (only the Jaguars are worse).

How did my predictions fare last week?

Prediction: Panthers won't score a touchdown. Result: Carolina got into the end zone once, on a blown coverage by safety Darian Stewart.

Prediction: Terrell Suggs will get his first sack of the season. Result: Suggs got a half sack.

Prediction: Torrey Smith won't get on track. Result: Smith caught two passes for 53 yards and one touchdown.