Peering into the Big 12's crystal ball

April, 22, 2011
4/22/11
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In most cases, telling the future is no problem. I know there's a Mailbag on this blog later today. I know tomorrow is Saturday (Thanks, Rebecca!) I know, come September, there's going to be some delicious college football being played.

But for whatever reason, I can't figure out exactly what lies ahead for the Big 12's future.

I'm on board with the belief that the league is in pretty good shape in its current 10-team configuration. For better or worse, this whole situation boils down to money, and for now, it looks like that money's going to be there.

So, I got curious and wanted to know what the fans thought. I felt like public opinion was still weighted against the Big 12's survival in its current state, but I put up one poll originally.

Do you believe the Big 12 will exist in its current 10-team state when the new television deal with Fox ends in 2025?
  • No - 78 percent
  • Yes - 22 percent

That, obviously, sounds pretty negative. But in discussing the results with a few people, I heard the suggestion that the results would be different if it provided an option for the league to add teams. And they were correct. Here's what the second poll looked like.

How will the Big 12 look when its new TV deal with Fox expires in 2025?
  • It will have the same 10 members it does now - 15 percent
  • It will exist as a 12-team league with two new members - 43 percent
  • The Big 12 will not exist - 33 percent
  • The Big 12 will have 10-12 members, but lose its premier teams - 9 percent

Now, this poll is by no means scientific, but I feel like it's at least a close representation of Big 12 fans' beliefs on the issue. Clearly, my sentiments on the future are in the minority. But I was surprised at how many people still believe the Big 12 will eventually add teams, despite officials consistently and constantly maintaining that there are no plans to do so in the future.

The teams you hear most often in the discussion are TCU (No, and more on them later today), Houston (no), BYU (sure), Louisville (maybe). It would seem I'm alone in driving the bus to convince Arizona and Arizona State to jump ship. A tough sell? Maybe, but it's the Big 12's only realistic home run possibility. (Sorry, Notre Dame fans.)

With the Pac-12 and Big Ten adding championship games this year, it become in vogue a bit, and I think at the core of all this worry about the future is doubt about the Big 12's ability to exist as, with apologies to the Big East, the only major conference without a title game.

But that's another discussion.

I spoke with the Big 12's lawyer last week and asked what the Big 12 can do to swing that public opinion and how important it was.

"I think it’s important, but it’s going to take time," he said. "There are a lot of still kind of fresh wounds from last summer’s discussion."

That's really the only answer. When it comes to changing people's beliefs, there's not much else the league can do. All the Big 12 can do is to continue to exist. I'd be surprised if the withdrawal fees for the Big 12 aren't upped at least a little bit in the near future, and even still, no one in the Big 12 has a clear look at a future in another league.

Texas is busy making absurd amounts of money on its own and from the league. Leaving the Big 12 for independence would mean sacrificing $20 million or more in conference revenue. Leaving for another league would mean sacrificing $15 million for the Longhorn Network, which couldn't exist in the Big Ten or Pac-12, which requires schools to sacrifice their third-tier rights. Oklahoma doesn't want to split with Texas. The SEC isn't going to expand unless another league necessitates it and ushers in the superconference era, so you can cross Texas A&M off that list.

Missouri's not getting a call from the Big Ten anytime soon unless Notre Dame suddenly pulls a 180 on everything it's insisted for decades when the Big Ten has glanced over with longing eyes.

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State no doubt got a sobering look in the mirror at their places in the grand scheme of college football after nearly having the rug pulled out from underneath them this summer.

People can go on blindly assuming the Big 12 is under siege or needs to have 12 members to survive, but the evidence just isn't there to support it. If the Big Ten or SEC wants more members, for whatever reason, it might be the case. But there's no reason to believe that will be the case in the near future. The Big Ten has already publicly said it's done expanding for the foreseeable future.

All the Big 12 can do is keep fielding solid teams. This year, it should be as good as ever, with rising programs at Oklahoma State and Missouri looking like top 25 mainstays and Texas A&M looking like it's turned a corner under Mike Sherman. Oklahoma is, well, Oklahoma and Texas would shock people if it was down for more than another year or two.

The Big 12's done all it can do. The money is there. The quality programs, even with Nebraska's absence, are there. Wins should follow. National championships might too, as early as next year if the Sooners can end the SEC's run.

Public opinion is only going to be further shifted toward confidence in the Big 12's future with time.

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