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Breaking down bowl odds: Texas Tech

11/18/2011

Inspired by our friends over at the Big East Blog, it's time to forecast the bowl picture across the Big 12. Five Big 12 teams are already bowl-eligible. Four more teams are stuck on five wins entering Week 12, and we'll break down each fringe team's chances to make it to the postseason.

More bowl odds:

Next up: Texas Tech

Record: 5-5

Wins: Texas State, New Mexico, Nevada, Kansas, Oklahoma

Losses: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma State

Remaining schedule

  • Nov. 19: at Missouri

  • Nov. 26: vs. Baylor (at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas)

Breakdown: After knocking off Oklahoma in Norman, Texas Tech looked like a team that could beat everybody. A month later, the Red Raiders don't look much like a team than can beat anybody.

The defense has been one of the worst in the Big 12 all season, but the offense inexplicably fell off after the victory over the Sooners. Why? Who knows?

The Red Raiders were competitive in losses to Texas A&M and Kansas State, but games against Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State were never even close. Tech was outscored 104-13 in the first half of those three, including a 49-0 halftime deficit in the worst loss in school history against Oklahoma State.

Texas Tech is a better team than it showed over that stretch, but it's got to figure out what happened to the offense. Injuries on both sides of the ball haven't helped, but Missouri and Baylor will both be tough games. If Texas Tech isn't markedly better, the Tigers and Bears are fully capable of blowing them out just like the last three teams. Even if Tech plays well, a close win is the best scenario.

Chances the Red Raiders qualify for a bowl: 41 percent