Tim's mailbag: Scoring should tumble when Big 12 play begins
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin
Here's a representative sampling of some of my letters I received last week. Please feel free to ask me any and all questions. I won't be able to answer all of them, because of the volume I receive, but I'll try to pick the best ones.
Patrick from Austin writes: Seven of the top 10 scoring offenses in the country are from the Big 12. Is this a sign of strong offense and quarterbacks, or weaker defenses?
Tim Griffin: Patrick, I don't think we can blast Big 12 defenses for being weak yet because it's been all nonconference games so far. I do think the Big 12 has faced an array of weaker teams -- like most BCS conferences do in September. It will be interesting to see if these trends continue when conference play begins. I bet there will be some moderation.
But the Big 12 does have some world-class offenses as we've seen so far this season.
Jack from Stephenville, Texas writes: Tim, How do you see Texas Tech faring this weekend against Kansas State up in Manhattan?
Tim Griffin: Jack, I like their chances because it looks like their offense has a sizable talent advantage over Kansas State's struggling defense. But this is exactly the kind of game that the Red Raiders have struggled over in previous seasons. I'm still not sold until they can go on the road and dominate an opponent.
Kansas State would be a good step. And I'm curious how much Mike Leach will be using his ground game against an opponent that has been gashed for at least 300 rushing yards in each of its last two games. It might give the Red Raiders an unconventional way -- at least for them -- of beating an opponent this week.
Cecil from Plano, Texas writes: I was wondering if we could possibly look ahead, after your last blog about not much happening in the rankings this weekend, and discuss the Red River Rivalry. I am interested in what you have to say how that will go down.
Tim Griffin: After seeing both teams play, I've got to think that Oklahoma will be the favorite, probably by about a touchdown. The key for Texas will be to get some kind of consistent pass rush on Sam Bradford. If he can sit back in the pocket untouched, he ought to be able to blister Texas' young secondary.
Will Muschamp will need to cook up some kind of pass rush so he can be able to dictate the down-and-distance setup against the Sooners. The Sooners aren't running the ball well after the TCU game, but I expect that will change this week against Baylor.
I also think Texas has to get some plays from their running backs. I don't think the Longhorns can beat Oklahoma with Colt McCoy as their primary running threat.
That being said, I give Texas a puncher's chance of being able to record the upset. If they get some breaks and make some things happen on their kicking game -- where Oklahoma has been vulnerable in the last couple of weeks -- it wouldn't surprise me if they had a chance to sneak out of the Cotton Bowl with an upset.
But I'm not expecting it. My guess now is Oklahoma 34, Texas 21. But I reserve my opportunity to change my prediction after the games this week.
Kyle from Newton, Kan. writes: What is KU's main concern before the Big XII starts? Offensive line, defensive line, secondary, or the running game?
Tim Griffin: I think that Mark Mangino has to be most concerned about his running game. I don't expect that Kansas can beat Oklahoma or Missouri without a more balanced attack. They are asking a lot out of Todd Reesing and he won't be as able to do the things he did in September against the most talented defenses in the Big 12.
It will be interesting to see how much improvement the Jayhawks have made in this category against Iowa State's weak rush defense. I'm looking for Kansas to show some major improvement this week after the bye week and considering who they will be playing. If not, it might be tougher in the Big 12 North for the Jayhawks than we might think.
Daniel from Oklahoma City writes: Just like last year when LSU went to the title game with two losses beause they had such a tough schedule, do you think it's possible for a Big XII team to do something similar because of our tough conference?
Tim Griffin: I think it will take a couple of specifics for it to take place. First, the Big 12 team is going to have to finish strong with the losses happening earlier in conference play. And there will have to be a similar glut of two-loss teams from around the conference. I don't see a Big 12 team making it with two losses if there's a Big Ten or Pac-10 team in front of them with one loss. And don't even get me started on the Southeastern Conference. It will be hard for a Big 12 team with two losses to play ahead of a Southeastern Conference team with one loss -- no matter how tough schedule their schedule might be.
Brady from Wichita, Kan., writes: Your blog about Big 12 teams being ranked number 1 is wrong. You have Kansas State down as never being ranked number one, but you are mistaken, they were ranked number 1 back in 1998. ESPN needs some better researchers.
Tim Griffin: Brady, I appreciate you writing to tell me about it. I got several letters of similar vein. But if you notice, in the story I specifically mentioned the Associated Press poll. Kansas State never made it to No. 1 in the 1998 season, ranking no better than second behind Tennessee during the season.
That Wildcat team was poised to make a run at the national championship before it couldn't hold onto a big second-half lead against Dat Nguyen and the Texas A&M Aggies. Still probably ranks as the biggest coaching disappointment in Bill Snyder's life, I would guess.
Vince in New York City writes: I'm glad the Sooners are in a position for No. 1. I'm not happy with the way they did it. If they don't "finish" the game against the Longhorns, they will lose. I hope Stoops has learned a lesson, they stack eight on the line, pitch out or throw the ball. You don't keep running between the tackles.
Tim Griffin: Vince, I agree there were some troubling signs in the victory over TCU that probably didn't make Bob Stoops very happy. First, the lack of a running game had to gall him. Oklahoma's 25 rushing yards were the lowest total the Sooners had won a game with since beating Alabama, 37-27, with minus-23 yards rushing on Sept. 7, 2002.
The Sooners continued struggles on special teams also haunted them during much of the game. A hustling play by Lendy Holmes that saved a touchdown on TCU's opening return after the Sooners scored first was probably the biggest play for the Sooners all night. They can't afford those kind of breakdowns against teams like Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and expect to win.
Jason from Swansea, Ill. writes: At least you focused your entire Saturday on OU, or did you forget about the other Big XII teams in action as well?
Tim Griffin: Jason, typically when I cover a game at a particular location, most of my interest is going to be directed at that game. I might be able to catch a little bit of early action at my hotel, but likely it's going to be following by radio or internet.
And until I can find a time to be two places at once, I'm going to have to
rely on covering just one game. I wish I could be everywhere, but it's just not humanly possible -- unfortunately.
London from Denver writes: Want to know the worst job in college football? How about punter for a top Big XII team. Watching Mizzou, OU, and Texas... I've only seen a handful of punts all season long.
Tim Griffin: I agree, London. And your forgot about Texas Tech. Mike Leach will go for the first down, any time from any position on the field. I feel for those guys working during practice and then getting only a couple of chances during a game.
But here's an interesting little nugget of trivia. Guess which team averages the most punts in the Big 12 this season? It might surprise you.
It's Oklahoma, which is averaging 5.0 punts per game. Texas Tech averages the fewest at 2.25 punts per game. The Red Raiders and Tulsa are the only two teams in the country with less than 10 punts this season.
And that's just another reason why I'm disappointed that Tulsa backed out of its nonconference game against Texas Tech that originally was scheduled this year. It might have been 69-65 if the two teams had ever met.
Hey, thanks for all of the letters and enjoy the games this week.
Sort comments by: Most Recent | First Posted
BIG 12 SCOREBOARD
Thursday, 11/26
Friday, 11/27
Saturday, 11/28
12:30 PM ET 12 Oklahoma State Oklahoma 3:30 PM ET Missouri Kansas - ABC / 360
- Tickets
- Conversation
6:00 PM ET Texas Tech Baylor
